Thoughts on, and plans for, Sunday's Marine Corps Marathon
So my context:
- marathon PR is 3:28:59, set on 1/1/2016 in a small, Texas race on a flat course and on a rather ideal day
- this training cycle has been ideal and injury free. I averaged 56 miles/week (60/week during primary twelve weeks (= any
Juxt week)) and included a couple of SOS every week consisting of tempo, intervals, and hills. The majority of the 'glue' runs were 10 miles or more.
- I had seven training runs of 17-19 miles (roughly the 2 1/2 hour threshold). My three long runs were 21, 23, and 22 miles. The 22 miler, in my Vaporflys, averaged 7:56/mi with not much effort ..and that's a faster pace than my PR.
So the upside is great training cycle of long runs and focused workouts as well as demonstrated speed in the Vaporfly shoes. Also of benefit will be the motivation from the race itself, magnified by the fundraising and related stories I'll carry with me. So PR ready? The possible downside is the size of the event, which could result in added distance, and the unknown effect of a long, early hill and a late hill around mile 23. Weather is also shaping up as a factor.
Current weather forecast is low 60s and the likelihood of a steady (though not necessarily hard) rainfall. That implies higher humidity/dew point, and I don't like humidity, though being overcast is good. But it doesn't look like it will be a cool, crisp fall day.
A Goal: Sub-3:25. This would be a solid PR (though shoe-assisted), and position me for a top AG finish (out of about 500). They go five-deep in AG awards (medal!), but I'd like to be top three or even have a shot to win the AG, which is possible if I have a great day and finish closer to 3:20. A challenge will be, if I'm running that fast of a clip (~7:40/mi), I'll have natural doubts about sustaining that pace, even if the Vaporfly testing says its feasible. That happened in my PR race ...'am I really running this fast?' Then again, I can recall my 22 mile run at a PR pace and running 7:15/mi over the final four miles. Gimme a day like that ...
B Goal: Sub-3:35. This would still be my third fastest marathon and give me a shot at top-5. Given the course, the crowds, and the weather, I'll need to fight being "OK" with this. But it would still be a BQ-30.
C Goal: Sub-3:45. Given the training and the benefit of the shoes, this would be disappointing, though still achieving the BQ goal and possibly also #beatIggy. You just never know with marathons.
It will be hard to determine pace through the first 4-5 miles. The first two miles are a gradual climb, followed by a descent. We then cross a bridge to Georgetown for a stretch (with a likely, and encouraging,
@bushdocda sighting there). I just don't know how the crowds will affect those first miles and how the early up/down will go. We finally have a smooth four mile stretch on a parkway from around 6-9 miles,, and that will be a determinant of how the day is unfolding -- how was the pace to that point, and what pace feels sustainable during this stretch? We have another rather isolated peninsula from 12-15, which will be the second key reality check. A little bit after that, we're in the hustle/bustle of the National Mall before a long bridge, the final up/down hill, then a rather isolated 2 miles back to the finish. Hoping and planning for a great day (weather permitting more than anything) and a chance to #### #### up.