RB Age Decline Denial - How many "Outliers" have there really (1 Viewer)

[I was in the pool]

I wanted to start a discussion about the aging of players. Arian Foster's workload got me thinking about volume back in January. Later this offseason, the backing of Adrian Peterson with a first round startup value in dynasty was confusing to me.

Let's throw out some star RBs that remained studly later than usual and others that broke down and left dynasty owners out to dry....

Since I was not a dynasty player a decade ago, some additional insight would be helpful, but what about Shaun Alexander?

Five straight seasons of 18+ PPR PPG from age 24 to 28.

Over that span, he missed just a single game and scored 14+ rushing TDs each season. He was probably as valued as Adrian Peterson is now in dynasty circles (don't quote me as I did not find information on that specifically).

What followed Alexander's run of dominance until age 28?

He averaged 14 PPG at age 29 (missing 6 games, 7 total TDs) before falling to 9 PPG and 1 PPG before bowing out of the NFL limelight.

Some other career arcs:

Marshall Faulk - declined after age 30

Emmitt Smith - declined after age 30

Barry Sanders - declined after age 29 (but retired before big drop)

Frank Gore - after age 27

Larry Johnson - after age 27

Thurman Thomas - after age 30

Deuce McAllister - after age 28

Chris Johnson - 25?

Eddie George - 29

I have charted the most productive 100+ RBs since 1990 and am mainly talking about ones with peak periods in their mid-20s that did not return near those levels once they faded over the years.

Here are some RBs with random (inconsistent) high-level (for them) seasons later in their career:

Curtis Martin: Declined after age 28 only to have great age 31 year

Ricky Watters: Decline after 27, another big year at 31

Tiki Barber: Biggest four seasons were at 27, 29, 30, 31.

Charlie Garner: Peaks at 28, 30.

Corey Dillon: Pedestrian outside of 30,31 seasons

Jamal Lewis: Peak at 24, big decline before age 28 finale

Thomas Jones: Three seasons above 15 PPG: 26, 30, 31.

James Stewart: Biggest seasons at 27, 29, 31.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Not to diminish your post, but RBs are truly the one position where players can come right in as rookies and dominate based on their physical talent alone. Most guys lose that dynamic ability as they age (naturally) and due to wear and tear.

I would happily take any RB age 26 or under and not have a single concern over age. Think Ray Rice or Trent Richardson

The 27-30 range is iffy; guys start to lose some of that natural speed, but generally your blue-chippers (Peterson, Smith, Sanders...) manage to keep their jobs and not fall off a cliff. Think Peterson, Johnson, and Foster.

The 30+ range is the age or rapidly diminishing returns and high risk players. Not to say a guy over 30 can't put things together for a year, or even rarely two, but RB1 or even RB2 should be expected. Think Michael Turner of last year, Steven Jackson and Frank Gore look like possible candidates this year. It's not to say that Jackson and Gore couldn't finish as decent fantasy producers, especially given their current situations, but the risk is high.

Bottom line is the younger guy always get the advantage, but it's just one factor to consider. Situation, talent, injury issues and a number of other variables are just as, if not more important.

 

[I was in the pool]

What are your thoughts on Peterson?

Most throw around phrases like "Locking up the next 2-3 years of elite production" when drafting him in the top half of the first round of dynasty drafts.....

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't think peak seasons is the best criteria to use. If I draft Peterson, I don't care that his 2012 season was very likely his best; I'm drafting him based on what I think he'll do in 2013-15+.

Also, it's important to understand how valuable even a single top 5-7 RB season is in most fantasy formats. It's not unreasonable to think that 2-3 years of Adrian Peterson is worth more than 6 years of a top QB, or so on.

I agree with the point I understand you to be making; I am in camp that wouldn't take Peterson in the first round of a PPR start-up. But if I felt he was likely to have 3 more Adrian Peterson years, I certainly would consider it.

 

[CalBear]

What are your thoughts on Peterson?

Most throw around phrases like "Locking up the next 2-3 years of elite production" when drafting him in the top half of the first round of dynasty drafts.....

You might want to look up pre-2012 threads about how Adrian Peterson can't possibly have an elite year in 2012 because Kevin Smith and Cadillac Williams declined coming back from ACL injuries. Comparing Peterson to Shaun Alexander will not tell you anything interesting; Alexander was a pedestrian runner on a good offense with a dominant OL, who lucked into a whole bunch of TDs, while Peterson is the best RB in the game and is making a case for being on the all-time great list. If you want a better comp, look at Priest Holmes (27 TDs at age 30).

Peterson may or may not have elite seasons in the next three years. But, he is more likely than any individual RB (with the possible exception of Foster, who's just a year younger) to have elite seasons in the next three years. If you can take the RB field over Peterson, go for it; most of us have to choose individual RBs, and choosing Stevan Ridley over Peterson because Peterson is 28 would be insane.

 

[Concept Coop]

If you can take the RB field over Peterson, go for it; most of us have to choose individual RBs, and choosing Stevan Ridley over Peterson because Peterson is 28 would be insane.

That's a bit of a strawman; nobody is suggesting the selection of Ridley over Peterson. What about Martin or Richardson? Or Spiller or McCoy? Or Charles?

Peterson ran for 2,000 yards and finished less than 40 points ahead of Doug Martin. 2,000 is not his new baseline.

 

[CalBear]

If you can take the RB field over Peterson, go for it; most of us have to choose individual RBs, and choosing Stevan Ridley over Peterson because Peterson is 28 would be insane.

That's a bit of a strawman; nobody is suggesting the selection of Ridley over Peterson. What about Martin or Richardson? Or Spiller or McCoy? Or Charles?

Peterson ran for 2,000 yards and finished less than 40 points ahead of Doug Martin. 2,000 is not his new baseline.

Is 319/1454/11 Martin's baseline? I'm not going to play the "take out the big game" game, but most of Martin's games were mediocre to poor. He looks pretty good but not elite on the field. Maybe he's a better dynasty pick than Peterson, but if so, not by a lot.

Trent Richardson averaged 3.6 yards per carry and is being sued for sexual assault; he has far more risk than Peterson.

Spiller and McCoy are not in Peterson's league. Without Reid in town there's no way McCoy will repeat his 2011, and he's coming off a very weak season in 2012. Would you trade Peterson for CJ Spiller straight up? No matter what the league format, moves like that are selling the present for a mythical future.

 

[Concept Coop]

If you can take the RB field over Peterson, go for it; most of us have to choose individual RBs, and choosing Stevan Ridley over Peterson because Peterson is 28 would be insane.

That's a bit of a strawman; nobody is suggesting the selection of Ridley over Peterson. What about Martin or Richardson? Or Spiller or McCoy? Or Charles?

Peterson ran for 2,000 yards and finished less than 40 points ahead of Doug Martin. 2,000 is not his new baseline.

Is 319/1454/11 Martin's baseline? I'm not going to play the "take out the big game" game, but most of Martin's games were mediocre to poor. He looks pretty good but not elite on the field. Maybe he's a better dynasty pick than Peterson, but if so, not by a lot.

Trent Richardson averaged 3.6 yards per carry and is being sued for sexual assault; he has far more risk than Peterson.

Spiller and McCoy are not in Peterson's league. Without Reid in town there's no way McCoy will repeat his 2011, and he's coming off a very weak season in 2012. Would you trade Peterson for CJ Spiller straight up? No matter what the league format, moves like that are selling the present for a mythical future.

McCoy outscored Peterson in 2 of the last 3 years in PPR formats (PPG and total). 2 of 3 years is not a fluke; he's VERY MUCH in Peterson's league as a fantasy player.

I agree with you re:Martin, but he catches more balls than Peterson and that matters. He's 4 years younger, and in a better situation.

Spiller is 2 years younger and his per touch numbers were historic. If you think he gets more carries, you need to think long an hard about taking anyone over him, including AP. He'll catch a lot more balls than AP too.

As for Richardson, he played with broken ribs in an awful situation. He still caught a ton of balls and scored a ton of TDs. His NFL peers respect him, and I like hearing that. Not interested in his sexual assault case right now, right or wrong, until later in the process.

 

[CalBear]

If you can take the RB field over Peterson, go for it; most of us have to choose individual RBs, and choosing Stevan Ridley over Peterson because Peterson is 28 would be insane.

That's a bit of a strawman; nobody is suggesting the selection of Ridley over Peterson. What about Martin or Richardson? Or Spiller or McCoy? Or Charles?

Peterson ran for 2,000 yards and finished less than 40 points ahead of Doug Martin. 2,000 is not his new baseline.

Is 319/1454/11 Martin's baseline? I'm not going to play the "take out the big game" game, but most of Martin's games were mediocre to poor. He looks pretty good but not elite on the field. Maybe he's a better dynasty pick than Peterson, but if so, not by a lot.

Trent Richardson averaged 3.6 yards per carry and is being sued for sexual assault; he has far more risk than Peterson.

Spiller and McCoy are not in Peterson's league. Without Reid in town there's no way McCoy will repeat his 2011, and he's coming off a very weak season in 2012. Would you trade Peterson for CJ Spiller straight up? No matter what the league format, moves like that are selling the present for a mythical future.

McCoy outscored Peterson in 2 of the last 3 years in PPR formats (PPG and total). 2 of 3 years is not a fluke; he's VERY MUCH in Peterson's league as a fantasy player.

I agree with you re:Martin, but he catches more balls than Peterson and that matters. He's 4 years younger, and in a better situation.

Spiller is 2 years younger and his per touch numbers were historic. If you think he gets more carries, you need to think long an hard about taking anyone over him, including AP. He'll catch a lot more balls than AP too.

As for Richardson, he played with broken ribs in an awful situation. He still caught a ton of balls and scored a ton of TDs. His NFL peers respect him, and I like hearing that. Not interested in his sexual assault case right now, right or wrong, until later in the process.

McCoy could outscore Peterson. So could Spiller. It's an inexact game. But if you're playing in a total points, next-three-seasons league, and you take either McCoy or Spiller over Peterson at 1.01...well, if I'm sitting at 1.02 I'll thank you for the donation.

 

[JustinHawkins]

I am very weary of RBs with high mileage and ones 28 and older. I think we kid ourselvses to pretend they can give us 2-3 years at the same level. Truth is, players are bigger, stronger, and faster than ever before. So these RBs are taking harder hits. Its got to add up. I sold AP a few weeks ago (along with Foster) to get younger with Richardson and Charles. I had to give up an elite WR to do it, but I think it was worth it. Once these RBs hit that wall, the value goes from great to nothing (see Alexander, Portis, LT, etc.)

 

[I was in the pool]

Some good discussion going on and these are the things I intended with starting the thread. From re-reading my opening post, I did not approach it in the best manner.

Coop's point about what a singular top-5 (per se) RB season is worth is a good one.

Without going into a ton about personal opinions on RBs by name, knowing how the market value of an older RB works in a dynasty format, how much does a 28,29,30 year-old RB need to produce to be valued similarly to a 23,24,25 year-old one?

On another subject that was brought up - do some consider it highly likely that AP outscores someone like Spiller, Charles, Martin, Richardson, McCoy types in 2013? I personally do not, which slants the scales tremendously in those other RBs' favor in a dynasty setting because even "losing" to AP in a one-year scenario, they will carry more value than AP a year from now.

 

[I was in the pool]

If you can take the RB field over Peterson, go for it; most of us have to choose individual RBs, and choosing Stevan Ridley over Peterson because Peterson is 28 would be insane.

That's a bit of a strawman; nobody is suggesting the selection of Ridley over Peterson. What about Martin or Richardson? Or Spiller or McCoy? Or Charles?

Peterson ran for 2,000 yards and finished less than 40 points ahead of Doug Martin. 2,000 is not his new baseline.

Is 319/1454/11 Martin's baseline? I'm not going to play the "take out the big game" game, but most of Martin's games were mediocre to poor. He looks pretty good but not elite on the field. Maybe he's a better dynasty pick than Peterson, but if so, not by a lot.

Trent Richardson averaged 3.6 yards per carry and is being sued for sexual assault; he has far more risk than Peterson.

Spiller and McCoy are not in Peterson's league. Without Reid in town there's no way McCoy will repeat his 2011, and he's coming off a very weak season in 2012. Would you trade Peterson for CJ Spiller straight up? No matter what the league format, moves like that are selling the present for a mythical future.

McCoy outscored Peterson in 2 of the last 3 years in PPR formats (PPG and total). 2 of 3 years is not a fluke; he's VERY MUCH in Peterson's league as a fantasy player.

I agree with you re:Martin, but he catches more balls than Peterson and that matters. He's 4 years younger, and in a better situation.

Spiller is 2 years younger and his per touch numbers were historic. If you think he gets more carries, you need to think long an hard about taking anyone over him, including AP. He'll catch a lot more balls than AP too.

As for Richardson, he played with broken ribs in an awful situation. He still caught a ton of balls and scored a ton of TDs. His NFL peers respect him, and I like hearing that. Not interested in his sexual assault case right now, right or wrong, until later in the process.

McCoy could outscore Peterson. So could Spiller. It's an inexact game. But if you're playing in a total points, next-three-seasons league, and you take either McCoy or Spiller over Peterson at 1.01...well, if I'm sitting at 1.02 I'll thank you for the donation.

Strong stance there

 

[CalBear]

I am very weary of RBs with high mileage and ones 28 and older. I think we kid ourselvses to pretend they can give us 2-3 years at the same level. Truth is, players are bigger, stronger, and faster than ever before. So these RBs are taking harder hits. Its got to add up. I sold AP a few weeks ago (along with Foster) to get younger with Richardson and Charles. I had to give up an elite WR to do it, but I think it was worth it. Once these RBs hit that wall, the value goes from great to nothing (see Alexander, Portis, LT, etc.)

Arian Foster is 3 months older than Jamaal Charles. It is likely that you got fleeced.

 

[Concept Coop]

McCoy could outscore Peterson. So could Spiller. It's an inexact game. But if you're playing in a total points, next-three-seasons league, and you take either McCoy or Spiller over Peterson at 1.01...well, if I'm sitting at 1.02 I'll thank you for the donation.

If I ever play in a 3 year league, rather than dynasty, I'll let you know.

 

[I was in the pool]

I am very weary of RBs with high mileage and ones 28 and older. I think we kid ourselvses to pretend they can give us 2-3 years at the same level. Truth is, players are bigger, stronger, and faster than ever before. So these RBs are taking harder hits. Its got to add up. I sold AP a few weeks ago (along with Foster) to get younger with Richardson and Charles. I had to give up an elite WR to do it, but I think it was worth it. Once these RBs hit that wall, the value goes from great to nothing (see Alexander, Portis, LT, etc.)

This was my bigger point. It is easy to think that what occurred recently (2012 or the last two years, etc) will continue as the most likely outcome or that "well, Player X is different." Things change and players age. Half of RB1s are not there the next year in fantasy. Half. Looking at some recent years, quite a number are the older ones falling off if memory serves.

 

[I was in the pool]

I am very weary of RBs with high mileage and ones 28 and older. I think we kid ourselvses to pretend they can give us 2-3 years at the same level. Truth is, players are bigger, stronger, and faster than ever before. So these RBs are taking harder hits. Its got to add up. I sold AP a few weeks ago (along with Foster) to get younger with Richardson and Charles. I had to give up an elite WR to do it, but I think it was worth it. Once these RBs hit that wall, the value goes from great to nothing (see Alexander, Portis, LT, etc.)

Arian Foster is 3 months older than Jamaal Charles. It is likely that you got fleeced.

Charles and Spiller will both be 26 YO this season.

 

[CalBear]

Some good discussion going on and these are the things I intended with starting the thread. From re-reading my opening post, I did not approach it in the best manner.

Coop's point about what a singular top-5 (per se) RB season is worth is a good one.

Without going into a ton about personal opinions on RBs by name, knowing how the market value of an older RB works in a dynasty format, how much does a 28,29,30 year-old RB need to produce to be valued similarly to a 23,24,25 year-old one?

I think the #1 overall RB at age 28 is likely to still be the #1 overall player. If the #2 or #3 RBs are 23-25, they're probably worth more, but it's much better to have an elite RB at 28 than the #6 RB at 23. At 29 or 30 the value starts to fade but I still don't think he should fall out of the first round in a dynasty start-up.

On another subject that was brought up - do some consider it highly likely that AP outscores someone like Spiller, Charles, Martin, Richardson, McCoy types in 2013? I personally do not, which slants the scales tremendously in those other RBs' favor in a dynasty setting because even "losing" to AP in a one-year scenario, they will carry more value than AP a year from now.

If you think that all of five guys you mention are going to outscore Peterson in 2013, of course you should consider them worth more. I don't think there's any reason to believe that all of them will, or that a majority of them will, barring injury to Peterson himself. He's physically the best RB in the league and he's going to get 300+ carries; can you say that about any of the other guys you list?

 

[CalBear]

I am very weary of RBs with high mileage and ones 28 and older. I think we kid ourselvses to pretend they can give us 2-3 years at the same level. Truth is, players are bigger, stronger, and faster than ever before. So these RBs are taking harder hits. Its got to add up. I sold AP a few weeks ago (along with Foster) to get younger with Richardson and Charles. I had to give up an elite WR to do it, but I think it was worth it. Once these RBs hit that wall, the value goes from great to nothing (see Alexander, Portis, LT, etc.)

Arian Foster is 3 months older than Jamaal Charles. It is likely that you got fleeced.

Charles and Spiller will both be 26 YO this season.

So is Foster, until September 24. Charles turns 27 on December 27. Spiller is less than a year younger than Foster (August 15). If you're giving up talent to get younger by three months, you're making a mistake.

 

[JustinHawkins]

I am very weary of RBs with high mileage and ones 28 and older. I think we kid ourselvses to pretend they can give us 2-3 years at the same level. Truth is, players are bigger, stronger, and faster than ever before. So these RBs are taking harder hits. Its got to add up. I sold AP a few weeks ago (along with Foster) to get younger with Richardson and Charles. I had to give up an elite WR to do it, but I think it was worth it. Once these RBs hit that wall, the value goes from great to nothing (see Alexander, Portis, LT, etc.)

Arian Foster is 3 months older than Jamaal Charles. It is likely that you got fleeced.

And Foster has a lot more carries, and a healthy Ben Tate taking carries. Who will take them for Charles?

 

[CalBear]

I am very weary of RBs with high mileage and ones 28 and older. I think we kid ourselvses to pretend they can give us 2-3 years at the same level. Truth is, players are bigger, stronger, and faster than ever before. So these RBs are taking harder hits. Its got to add up. I sold AP a few weeks ago (along with Foster) to get younger with Richardson and Charles. I had to give up an elite WR to do it, but I think it was worth it. Once these RBs hit that wall, the value goes from great to nothing (see Alexander, Portis, LT, etc.)

Arian Foster is 3 months older than Jamaal Charles. It is likely that you got fleeced.

And Foster has a lot more carries, and a healthy Ben Tate taking carries. Who will take them for Charles?

Again, if you think Charles is going to outscore Foster in 2013, Charles is obviously worth more. But I think that's an extraodinary position to take.

The last time Ben Tate was taking carries from Foster all year (2011), Foster finished as the #4 fantasy RB. Charles has never topped 8 TDs, and this year with 320 touches only managed 6. Unless you think that Charles is going to double that with Reid in town (Foster as starter has scored at least 12 TDs each year, leading the league twice), trading Foster straight up for Charles is a mistake, let alone throwing in an elite WR.

 

[Concept Coop]

Again, if you think Charles is going to outscore Foster in 2013, Charles is obviously worth more. But I think that's an extraodinary position to take.

The last time Ben Tate was taking carries from Foster all year (2011), Foster finished as the #4 fantasy RB. Charles has never topped 8 TDs, and this year with 320 touches only managed 6. Unless you think that Charles is going to double that with Reid in town (Foster as starter has scored at least 12 TDs each year, leading the league twice), trading Foster straight up for Charles is a mistake, let alone throwing in an elite WR.

You used YPC to suggest Trent wasn't worthy of a top dynasty pick. Have you looked at Fosters 2012 stats?

 

[CalBear]

Again, if you think Charles is going to outscore Foster in 2013, Charles is obviously worth more. But I think that's an extraodinary position to take.

The last time Ben Tate was taking carries from Foster all year (2011), Foster finished as the #4 fantasy RB. Charles has never topped 8 TDs, and this year with 320 touches only managed 6. Unless you think that Charles is going to double that with Reid in town (Foster as starter has scored at least 12 TDs each year, leading the league twice), trading Foster straight up for Charles is a mistake, let alone throwing in an elite WR.

You used YPC to suggest Trent wasn't worthy of a top dynasty pick. Have you looked at Fosters 2012 stats?

You mean, half a yard per carry better than Richardson?

 

[Concept Coop]

You mean, half a yard per carry better than Richardson?

I mean more than double that less than Charles, 4 times that much less than Spiller.

 

[CalBear]

You mean, half a yard per carry better than Richardson?

I mean more than double that less than Charles, 4 times that much less than Spiller.

Charles and Spiller are scat backs; Foster and Richardson are workhorse backs. Their YPC numbers are not comparable. When Charles rose from 230 to 285 carries his YPC dropped from 6.4 to 5.3. Bump him up to 320 carries and put him in at the goal line and Charles would see a similar drop. It is not coincidence that Foster scores a lot more than Charles; it's because Foster gets the ball in goal line situations and Charles does not.

In 2012, Foster led the league in carries inside the 5 (29), yardage gained on carries inside the 5 (42), and touchdowns from inside the 5 (11 rushing, 2 receiving). No one was close in any of those categories.

Jamal Charles had 2 carries inside the 5, for zero yards and zero TDs. He added zero receptions.

CJ Spiller did a little better; he had 7 yards on his 2 carries and scored a TD. He also had zero receptions.

If you want to trade a 26 year old goal-line monster (30 goal-line TDs in the past three years, #1 in the league) for a between-the-20s scat back because the scat back is 3 months younger, go ahead.

Sometimes guys have more carries because they're better players.

 

[Hooper31]

Any conversation about Shaun Alexander begins and ends with discussion about Steve Hutchinson and Walter Jones. Amazingly Alexader's massive decline happened when Hutchinson went to Minnesota and Jones health became an issue.

 

[Ernol]

Is 319/1454/11 Martin's baseline? I'm not going to play the "take out the big game" game, but most of Martin's games were mediocre to poor. He looks pretty good but not elite on the field. Maybe he's a better dynasty pick than Peterson, but if so, not by a lot. Trent Richardson averaged 3.6 yards per carry and is being sued for sexual assault; he has far more risk than Peterson. Spiller and McCoy are not in Peterson's league. Without Reid in town there's no way McCoy will repeat his 2011, and he's coming off a very weak season in 2012. Would you trade Peterson for CJ Spiller straight up? No matter what the league format, moves like that are selling the present for a mythical future.

I can understand why some prefer Peterson, but I'd have no hesitation taking Spiller straight up for Peterson.

 

[Biabreakable]

Stuff

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/articles/age.htm

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/07/16/age-of-decline-rb1/

http://www.footballperspective.com/a-closer-look-at-running-back-aging-patterns/

http://draftcalc.com/fantasy-football-content/articles/dc-university-30-years-old-the-age-of-decline-for-running-backs/

I think you need to look at each player on a case by case basis. I think Steven Jackson is one of the elite RB to enter the league. He is one of those guys that does not come along every draft like Adrian Peterson, Trent Richardson. So while I do not expect peak production from him at age 30 I do expect him to play at the same level as he has been in a better offense improving his scoring opportunities. I can see Jackson coming close to a peak year at 30 but expect steady decline each following season. I do think Jackson is a good enough player that he could maintain at least a part time job longer than this as a few other RB have done before. I think Jackson could buck this trend and have a good season at 31 years old (2014) but it would be against the odds. I think Jacksons talent gives him a chance though. There will almost without question be decline at age 32 (2015) but even if that were a decline from an average season for him he could still perhaps be a RB3 type value player. Very long odds that he will still be playing beyond that. But if he is I think it will be because he is productive.

Adrian Peterson I think will have at least 2 more seasons with 1800 or more combined yards and double digit TDs. In 2015 he will be 30 which is where some decline may happen but I do think he will be starting and getting a large number of carries at that age. If the decline were as steep as 20% that would still be a 1440 yard season with likely a good number of TD as well. After that it gets risky as that decline at age 31 could take Peterson out of RB1 level into RB2-3 level or worse but likely still starting if he hasn't retired. By the way Peterson loves playing this game and I do see him as a player who will want to play as long as he can. There of course will be a point where he will retire but I can see him still playing even into his later 30's just not as well. Players like this can still be useful in spot starts even after the point where they are no longer stars. Depending on your roster that is still some value even after the players decline. It is the quick drop offs of these players that is scary. Hard to know when they will finally call it quits. But for the few elite workhorse RB in the league like these 2 I think they have enough talent to control their own destinies somewhat. Teams will always want these guys playing for them even after they have gotten older and lost some of their ability. You just need to plan ahead for the decline years and replacements ready. Then play some matchups with your once elite RB after they decline.

I do not think every or even many RBs will get the chance to play into their twilight years, and they still have to be able to produce to keep that opportunity, but if I were to pick a couple players that I can see doing it, it would be these 2. Peterson is still 4 years away from a serious threat of decline due to age.

 

[ghostguy123]

Peterson defies all logic. And shouldnt be part of the age/workload comparisons. The dude isn't human.

Before just this year, did anyone think a guy could come back so fast from blowing out his knee?? Not even just AP, Jamaal Charles also. Back looking very good less than a year later.

History can only tell you so much. But if you only go by history, then chances are you didn't get AP or Charles in any drafts this year. Guys are coming back faster can faster from the "bad" injuries now. What's to say that RBs wont start to last a little longer, also. WHo knows really. But just because they generally haven't up to this point doesn't mean I am gonna sell Peterson and Foster for up and comers thinking they might not be elite in 3 years.

 

[ZWK]

I've analyzed some data on RB aging patterns, which I posted here a year ago. On average, players who are Peterson's age (turning 28 this year) and are coming off a RB1 season have 2.0 more years left as a fantasy starter, including 1.2 years of RB1 play (where RB1 means 50+ VBD, no PPR).

That's the average; what's the range? At the high end is Ricky Watters, who had 4 more years of RB1 level performance. That's the most of anyone in my data set (which includes every RB who entered the league since 1983). Two players who were coming off RB1 seasons at age 27 had 3 more years left as a RB1 (Tiki Barber and Barry Sanders); Priest Holmes also had 3 years of RB1 performance at ages 28+ but he was not coming off a RB1 season (he was still a backup at age 27). 13 players had 2 years of RB1 play at ages 28+ (11 of whom were RB1s at age 27).

In terms of total VBD accumulated at ages 28+, the leaderboard is:

634 Priest Holmes
430 Tiki Barber
366 Barry Sanders
309 Ricky Watters
298 Marshall Faulk
298 Curtis Martin
287 LaDainian Tomlinson
264 Emmitt Smith
234 Eric Dickerson
224 Herschel Walker

 

[zed2283]

I've analyzed some data on RB aging patterns, which I posted here a year ago. On average, players who are Peterson's age (turning 28 this year) and are coming off a RB1 season have 2.0 more years left as a fantasy starter, including 1.2 years of RB1 play (where RB1 means 50+ VBD, no PPR).

That's the average; what's the range? At the high end is Ricky Watters, who had 4 more years of RB1 level performance. That's the most of anyone in my data set (which includes every RB who entered the league since 1983). Two players who were coming off RB1 seasons at age 27 had 3 more years left as a RB1 (Tiki Barber and Barry Sanders); Priest Holmes also had 3 years of RB1 performance at ages 28+ but he was not coming off a RB1 season (he was still a backup at age 27). 13 players had 2 years of RB1 play at ages 28+ (11 of whom were RB1s at age 27).

In terms of total VBD accumulated at ages 28+, the leaderboard is:

634 Priest Holmes

430 Tiki Barber

366 Barry Sanders

309 Ricky Watters

298 Marshall Faulk

298 Curtis Martin

287 LaDainian Tomlinson

264 Emmitt Smith

234 Eric Dickerson

224 Herschel Walker

Who fits that criteria this year?

 

[I was in the pool]

Some good discussion going on and these are the things I intended with starting the thread. From re-reading my opening post, I did not approach it in the best manner.

Coop's point about what a singular top-5 (per se) RB season is worth is a good one.

Without going into a ton about personal opinions on RBs by name, knowing how the market value of an older RB works in a dynasty format, how much does a 28,29,30 year-old RB need to produce to be valued similarly to a 23,24,25 year-old one?

I think the #1 overall RB at age 28 is likely to still be the #1 overall player. If the #2 or #3 RBs are 23-25, they're probably worth more, but it's much better to have an elite RB at 28 than the #6 RB at 23. At 29 or 30 the value starts to fade but I still don't think he should fall out of the first round in a dynasty start-up.

I want to unpack this point a little more.

I see it differently, the young RB1 has a decided edge in my mind over someone that has a shot as the no.1 RB as a 28 YO, because what happens in Y+1,2, etc. The young guy is still in his prime, and the owner of the older one is hoping he holds on for one more run.

Coop brought up the value of one good RB season.

Here is the AVT (average value theory) chart I use (weighted over last three years) translated into auction values in start-2 RB leagues:

RB1 56 RB2 51 RB3 49 RB4 45 RB5 36 RB6 34 RB7 33 RB8 31 RB9 31 RB10 28 RB11 25 RB12 21 RB13 20 RB14 17 RB15 16 RB16 14 RB17 12 RB18 11 RB19 11 RB20 9 RB21 7 RB22 6 RB23 5 RB24 4 RB25 2 RB26 1 As one would expect, an absolute elite RB season is worth quite a bit.....10x Shonn Greene's entire career I would estimate. The question I have is....how much risk is there is penciling in an older RB as top-5 or something like that? To me, that is risky. I think it is less risky to expect, say three top-8 PPG seasons from Trent Richardson in the next four years. Thoughts?

 

[I was in the pool]

I've analyzed some data on RB aging patterns, which I posted here a year ago. On average, players who are Peterson's age (turning 28 this year) and are coming off a RB1 season have 2.0 more years left as a fantasy starter, including 1.2 years of RB1 play (where RB1 means 50+ VBD, no PPR).

That's the average; what's the range? At the high end is Ricky Watters, who had 4 more years of RB1 level performance. That's the most of anyone in my data set (which includes every RB who entered the league since 1983). Two players who were coming off RB1 seasons at age 27 had 3 more years left as a RB1 (Tiki Barber and Barry Sanders); Priest Holmes also had 3 years of RB1 performance at ages 28+ but he was not coming off a RB1 season (he was still a backup at age 27). 13 players had 2 years of RB1 play at ages 28+ (11 of whom were RB1s at age 27).

In terms of total VBD accumulated at ages 28+, the leaderboard is:

634 Priest Holmes

430 Tiki Barber

366 Barry Sanders

309 Ricky Watters

298 Marshall Faulk

298 Curtis Martin

287 LaDainian Tomlinson

264 Emmitt Smith

234 Eric Dickerson

224 Herschel Walker

Good Stuff, ZWK.

I have a similar spreadsheet, but use PPG as a personal preference. According to what I looked at, AP has at most three RB1-type seasons left, but as you mentioned, the average is less. There is some impact based on when they come into the league too (total seasons), but will not quote things until I go back and look closer at it.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

You mean, half a yard per carry better than Richardson?

I mean more than double that less than Charles, 4 times that much less than Spiller.

Charles and Spiller are scat backs; Foster and Richardson are workhorse backs. Their YPC numbers are not comparable. When Charles rose from 230 to 285 carries his YPC dropped from 6.4 to 5.3. Bump him up to 320 carries and put him in at the goal line and Charles would see a similar drop. It is not coincidence that Foster scores a lot more than Charles; it's because Foster gets the ball in goal line situations and Charles does not.

In 2012, Foster led the league in carries inside the 5 (29), yardage gained on carries inside the 5 (42), and touchdowns from inside the 5 (11 rushing, 2 receiving). No one was close in any of those categories.

Jamal Charles had 2 carries inside the 5, for zero yards and zero TDs. He added zero receptions.

CJ Spiller did a little better; he had 7 yards on his 2 carries and scored a TD. He also had zero receptions.

If you want to trade a 26 year old goal-line monster (30 goal-line TDs in the past three years, #1 in the league) for a between-the-20s scat back because the scat back is 3 months younger, go ahead.

Sometimes guys have more carries because they're better players.

You're downplaying Jamaal Charles' ability quite a bit here. His YPC was on a ridiculous upward trajectory (5.3->5.9->6.4) until the knee injury -- each of those years his workload actually increased. Last year it fell (still 5.3!!!) -- was it due to more carries, or to the fact that he was coming back from a catastrophic knee injury? Charles has been ridiculously effective despite a far less than ideal situation. He belongs in the discussion with anyone as far as talent.

We'll see this year what Charles can do playing in a system and for a coach that will build the offense around his strengths. I'm pretty sure that Charles is a MUCH better NFL RB than is Arian Foster, who is good player that has been in a spectacular situation his entire career.

 

[sn0mm1s]

I wouldn't put Sanders in the decline column. I had him on my fantasy team in his final year. He played with a sprain of some sort the last 5 or 6 games of that season. The first 10 games of the season he was still a monster with 1100+ yards at a 5.0 YPC clip. Barber definitely wasn't on the decline either. I would say those are the only two that retired just as productive as any other time and completely healthy. Holmes faded when get had a fairly serious knee injury IIRC.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Peterson is a tough compare to anyone -- IMO, he's in the "very best ever" tier with Jim Brown, Walter Payton, and Barry Sanders. With Brown and Sanders, we really can't know when they would have declined -- they both walked away as pretty much the best RB in the league (Brown at 29, Sanders at 30). In his four seasons from age 29 - 32 Payton averaged more than 1950 YFS and 10 TDs. Something tells me that Peterson is going to keep chugging along through and past 30 without skipping a beat.

 

[TheFanatic]

Whole lot of talk in this thread that makes it seem like Decline = Falling Off a Cliff

Just because a guy went from 18 PPG at 26 to 15 at 27, doesn't mean you need to forget the guy.

 

[heidbrink]

Any conversation about Shaun Alexander begins and ends with discussion about Steve Hutchinson and Walter Jones. Amazingly Alexader's massive decline happened when Hutchinson went to Minnesota and Jones health became an issue.

Also note on ZWK's list the top two late producers (Holmes and Barber) had gentle use early in their careers.

 

[I was in the pool]

Whole lot of talk in this thread that makes it seem like Decline = Falling Off a Cliff Just because a guy went from 18 PPG at 26 to 15 at 27, doesn't mean you need to forget the guy.

Correct, but going from valued as a top12 dynasty commodity and 18+ PPG to say 15, then 12 is problematic when managing a team considering the exit value presented at a moment like this offseason.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Peterson defies all logic. And shouldnt be part of the age/workload comparisons. The dude isn't human.

Before just this year, did anyone think a guy could come back so fast from blowing out his knee?? Not even just AP, Jamaal Charles also. Back looking very good less than a year later.

History can only tell you so much. But if you only go by history, then chances are you didn't get AP or Charles in any drafts this year. Guys are coming back faster can faster from the "bad" injuries now. What's to say that RBs wont start to last a little longer, also. WHo knows really. But just because they generally haven't up to this point doesn't mean I am gonna sell Peterson and Foster for up and comers thinking they might not be elite in 3 years.

This, I under estimated Peterson and he'll be the one to break the rule. I expect him to be producing into his early 30s; most likely elite for another 2 to 3 (probrably start slowing down into the 3rd yr, between his 30th & 31st birthday) and then provide 1 or 2 yrs of useful production.

 

[ZWK]

I've analyzed some data on RB aging patterns, which I posted here a year ago. On average, players who are Peterson's age (turning 28 this year) and are coming off a RB1 season have 2.0 more years left as a fantasy starter, including 1.2 years of RB1 play (where RB1 means 50+ VBD, no PPR).

That's the average; what's the range? At the high end is Ricky Watters, who had 4 more years of RB1 level performance. That's the most of anyone in my data set (which includes every RB who entered the league since 1983). Two players who were coming off RB1 seasons at age 27 had 3 more years left as a RB1 (Tiki Barber and Barry Sanders); Priest Holmes also had 3 years of RB1 performance at ages 28+ but he was not coming off a RB1 season (he was still a backup at age 27). 13 players had 2 years of RB1 play at ages 28+ (11 of whom were RB1s at age 27).

In terms of total VBD accumulated at ages 28+, the leaderboard is:

634 Priest Holmes

430 Tiki Barber

366 Barry Sanders

309 Ricky Watters

298 Marshall Faulk

298 Curtis Martin

287 LaDainian Tomlinson

264 Emmitt Smith

234 Eric Dickerson

224 Herschel Walker

Good Stuff, ZWK.

I have a similar spreadsheet, but use PPG as a personal preference. According to what I looked at, AP has at most three RB1-type seasons left, but as you mentioned, the average is less. There is some impact based on when they come into the league too (total seasons), but will not quote things until I go back and look closer at it.

PPG is better; I just went with season totals because it was easier to get that data.

Another way to look at the data is it to find the top fantasy RBs through age 27. Including Peterson, there are 14 RBs who entered the league since 1983 who had 500+ cumulative VBD through age 27; they're listed below (in order). On average they had 698 VBD through age 27 (Peterson has 678).

What did they do over the rest of their careers? Throwing out Terrell Davis (who was already done by age 27), on average they picked up an additional 209 VBD, 1.6 seasons as a RB1, and 2.7 seasons as a fantasy starter. The maximum in those categories was 366 VBD (Barry Sanders), 4 seasons as a RB1 (Ricky Watters), and 5 seasons as a fantasy starter (Emmitt Smith).

VBD28+ RB1   St   Player264    2     5    Emmitt Smith287    2     4    LaDainian Tomlinson298    2     3    Marshall Faulk366    3     3    Barry Sanders147    1     3    Thurman Thomas                  Adrian Peterson62     0     2    Edgerrin James234    2     2    Eric Dickerson0      0     0    Clinton Portis                  Terrell Davis298    2     4    Curtis Martin18     0     1    Ahman Green221    1     1    Shaun Alexander309    4     4    Ricky Watters209    1.6  2.7   Avg (w/o Peterson or Davis)

 

[cstu]

RB's with 200+ fantasy points (non-PPR):

Age 28 - 29 times (last was Turner, 2011) out of 220 with 100+ carries (13%) and 132 with 150+ carries (22%)

Age 29 - 25 times (last was Turner, 2011) out of 158 with 100+ carries (15.8%) and 100 with 150+ carries (25%)

Age 30 - 16 times (last was Thomas Jones, 2008) out of 95 with 100+ carries (16.8%) and 60 with 150+ carries (26.7%)

Age 31 - 9 times (last was Thomas Jones, 2009) out of 62 with 100+ carries (14.5%) and 39 with 150+ carries (23%)

Age 32 - 4 times (last was Ricky Williams, 2009) out of 37 with 100+ carries (10.8%) and 19 with 150+ carries (21%)

Age 33 - 0 times out of 19 with 100+ carries (10.8%) and 13 with 150+ carries (21%)

What this tells me is that up until age 33 if a RB is still the primary back they still have a good chance of putting up a big season. However, the odds of guessing which 28 year old RB will be the one to hold onto the starting job into his 30's is quite low. Peterson is a solid bet but outside of him I'm not sold on any of the current 27-28 yo players.

IMO, RB's this age (27/28) are generally a terrible value to trade for since they still hold premium but in reality are unlikely to have more than a year or two left. You're better off trading for 30+ starting backs like SJax and Gore who you can acquire cheaply and use confidently for a year.

 

[CalBear]

Some good discussion going on and these are the things I intended with starting the thread. From re-reading my opening post, I did not approach it in the best manner.

Coop's point about what a singular top-5 (per se) RB season is worth is a good one.

Without going into a ton about personal opinions on RBs by name, knowing how the market value of an older RB works in a dynasty format, how much does a 28,29,30 year-old RB need to produce to be valued similarly to a 23,24,25 year-old one?

I think the #1 overall RB at age 28 is likely to still be the #1 overall player. If the #2 or #3 RBs are 23-25, they're probably worth more, but it's much better to have an elite RB at 28 than the #6 RB at 23. At 29 or 30 the value starts to fade but I still don't think he should fall out of the first round in a dynasty start-up.

I want to unpack this point a little more.

I see it differently, the young RB1 has a decided edge in my mind over someone that has a shot as the no.1 RB as a 28 YO, because what happens in Y+1,2, etc. The young guy is still in his prime, and the owner of the older one is hoping he holds on for one more run.

Talent comes first. It's actually quite rare to find a RB who hasn't hit the top 5 in his first couple of years, who becomes an elite back later. The only close example in the current NFL is Marshawn Lynch, who didn't finish better than #12 in BUF and now has finished #5 and #4 in SEA. Other than that, everyone who's elite was elite very early in their careers (top-5 finish in year 1 or 2). So if you're trading your elite 28-year-old for a 25-year-old in his third year in the league who finished as the #6 RB, well, you are likely to be trading for someone who will never finish better than #6. And that includes CJ Spiller and Jamaal Charles unless they get goal-line work or have one out-of-nowhere season like Chris Johnson did.

Backs who get goal-line work are inherently more valuable in fantasy than backs who don't.

Coop brought up the value of one good RB season.

Here is the AVT (average value theory) chart I use (weighted over last three years) translated into auction values in start-2 RB leagues:

RB1 56 RB2 51 RB3 49 RB4 45 RB5 36 RB6 34 RB7 33 RB8 31 RB9 31 RB10 28 RB11 25 RB12 21 RB13 20 RB14 17 RB15 16 RB16 14 RB17 12 RB18 11 RB19 11 RB20 9 RB21 7 RB22 6 RB23 5 RB24 4 RB25 2 RB26 1As one would expect, an absolute elite RB season is worth quite a bit.....10x Shonn Greene's entire career I would estimate. The question I have is....how much risk is there is penciling in an older RB as top-5 or something like that? To me, that is risky. I think it is less risky to expect, say three top-8 PPG seasons from Trent Richardson in the next four years. Thoughts?

Adrian Peterson is "an older back." Frank Gore is "an older back." If you paint them with the same brush you're going to get the wrong picture.

There is much less risk in projecting Peterson for a top-5 finish this season than projecting Gore or Trent Richardson for that. Richardson at least gets goal-line work, so projecting him for a number of decent fantasy seasons is reasonable. He might even become elite; he was decent as a rookie and gets goal-line work. That's much different than projecting Charles or Spiller to be consistently elite fantasy RBs. To be an elite fantasy RB you have to get the ball a lot and score a lot of TDs, something neither Charles nor Spiller has shown so far.

 

[BaBastage]

Chase Stuart did a pretty good writeup on this last year. http://www.footballperspective.com/a-closer-look-at-running-back-aging-patterns/

 

[I was in the pool]

Chase Stuart did a pretty good writeup on this last year. http://www.footballperspective.com/a-closer-look-at-running-back-aging-patterns/

A very good addition to the thread. Thank you.

 

[I was in the pool]

The main point I want to get back to is this:

Dynasty owners out there, what goes into the decision to sell or hold an aging RB in an offseason? I use Peterson as an example because his market value is high considering his age. Here is an AP trade from this offseason:

AP for 1.5, 1.6, 14 1st, McGahee

So as a general discussion, where is the line between riding a running back until the wheels fall off for you as a dynasty owner and selling while they still have trade value to return quality assets like the one above?

 

[auggiedoggies]

I personally flipped CJ Spiller and 1.03 for AP and 1.10 this year. I realize this may not have been a popular choice, but I trust AP to put up better numbers the next 3 years then Spiller. I still don't totally trust Spiller, and AP has proven to be a complete freak of nature. I realize I am likely in the minority, but I truly think AP will be one of the 3 best RBs of all time when it's all said and done.

 

[CalBear]

The main point I want to get back to is this:

Dynasty owners out there, what goes into the decision to sell or hold an aging RB in an offseason? I use Peterson as an example because his market value is high considering his age. Here is an AP trade from this offseason:

AP for 1.5, 1.6, 14 1st, McGahee

So as a general discussion, where is the line between riding a running back until the wheels fall off for you as a dynasty owner and selling while they still have trade value to return quality assets like the one above?

I don't think you're getting quality there as much as quantity. Let's look at what some of those mid-round rookie picks have netted in recent years (by MFL ADP, 1.05 to 1.07):

2009: LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin, Shonn Greene

2010: Demaryius Thomas, Sam Bradford, Ben Tate

2011: Ryan Williams, Cam Newton, Greg Little

2012: Justin Blackmon, David Wilson, Michael Floyd

Let's assume that the 2014 1st round pick will also be in the mid-round range. Of the 12 players listed above (13 including McGahee), only one (McCoy) is anywhere near the value of Peterson. What's the best-case scenario of two of those guys plus one from the next year; McCoy, Greene, Demaryius Thomas, probably. That would probably be worth a Peterson trade. In the worst case, you get Sam Bradford, Ben Tate, and Greg Little; in the median case, something like Maclin, Greene, and Bradford. Neither of those trades would have been worth doing.

You can only start a couple of RBs; having a bunch of mediocre RBs doesn't help you win games the way that having a stud RB does.

 

[TheFanatic]

I personally flipped CJ Spiller and 1.03 for AP and 1.10 this year. I realize this may not have been a popular choice, but I trust AP to put up better numbers the next 3 years then Spiller. I still don't totally trust Spiller, and AP has proven to be a complete freak of nature. I realize I am likely in the minority, but I truly think AP will be one of the 3 best RBs of all time when it's all said and done.

I traded Spiller for Blackmon and a 1 the week before Blackmon went off.

I currently own ADP in my main league. It's a contract league. I have the guy at $5 million of my $32 million cap. I can pick up his option for 2014 at $3.5 million. I think I am going to do it since I have both AJ Green and Julio Jones up at the end of this year and can only tag two players (Franchise and Transition). That will keep the guy on my team till he hits 30 and then I can let him go. I'm good with that...

 

[KellysHeroes]

given the situation hes in, I bet SJax is going to produce a couple of decent yrs in Atl

 

[ghostguy123]

The main point I want to get back to is this: Dynasty owners out there, what goes into the decision to sell or hold an aging RB in an offseason? I use Peterson as an example because his market value is high considering his age. Here is an AP trade from this offseason: AP for 1.5, 1.6, 14 1st, McGahee So as a general discussion, where is the line between riding a running back until the wheels fall off for you as a dynasty owner and selling while they still have trade value to return quality assets like the one above?

People who don't even like AP would be willing to pay more than that. I couldn't get him for the top three picks in this draft. That guy got hosed.If you wanna sell him, fine. If people in your league won't pay much, then don't sell him.....yet. its APRIL!!!