RB Age Decline Denial - How many "Outliers" have there really (1 Viewer)

[I was in the pool]

Part of the similarity between AP and Sanders is that both had historic seasons (rushing yards-wise) in their late 20s.

I agree with your points, SSOG, and a ton of things go into a single number like PPG or FPs, but they oscillate on their own. TD rate, YPC (before/after contact), TGT%, GL success rate, all those things go into the equation.

Sanders' FP/Touch as 30 YO was the lowest of his career and 50% lower than his previous season. Yes, his TD rate of 1.2% was likely to bump closer to his career norm the following season. The lack of efficiency (compared to his previous levels) was offset by 21.4 rushes/game, his highest mark since he was 25 YO. I will look into it further, but when older RBs start getting an uptick in volume, masking their drop in efficiency, I take notice.

 

[sn0mm1s]

Part of the similarity between AP and Sanders is that both had historic seasons (rushing yards-wise) in their late 20s.

I agree with your points, SSOG, and a ton of things go into a single number like PPG or FPs, but they oscillate on their own. TD rate, YPC (before/after contact), TGT%, GL success rate, all those things go into the equation.

Sanders' FP/Touch as 30 YO was the lowest of his career and 50% lower than his previous season. Yes, his TD rate of 1.2% was likely to bump closer to his career norm the following season. The lack of efficiency (compared to his previous levels) was offset by 21.4 rushes/game, his highest mark since he was 25 YO. I will look into it further, but when older RBs start getting an uptick in volume, masking their drop in efficiency, I take notice.

I mentioned this earlier in the thread - Sanders played with a pull or strain the last 5-6 games in that season (I had him on my fantasy team that year). The first 10 games of the season he was averaging 19.2 PPR PPG. He got injured then played injured for the final 5-6 games and only averaged 7.7 PPR PPG over the last 6 games. It wasn't a serious injury, just one of those lingering injuries that require rest (which he wasn't getting) to recover from. I don't think you could say that he was in decline.

 

[Mimo]

When I say decline, I do not mean "falls off the map", I mean their production lags well below their peak window earlier in the their career and the "sell high" moment has passed. I did not conjure up that explanation when asked to support my statement, that is the actually reason for saying it in the first place. Do you disagree that Sanders could have been sold in dynasty circles for a fortune following his 2k season? Do you disagree that finishing the following season under 15 PPG (>7 PPG drop from year prior) would negatively affect an owner's chances to do that independent of the decision to retire?

So you think Peterson owners should sell now? Chances are his stats next year wont be near the same level. Is the point you're trying to make, that you should try to sell RBs after they have a great season?

My point is that when older RBs have a great season and can be sold for a gut of quality pieces, selling should be seriously considered. AP just had 21.6 PPG, his career high mark. Here is his career past to this point: 18.016.320.118.417.321.6 While many say he has no comparable players, that is true because he lags far behind guys like Marshall Faulk and Ladainian Tomlinson in terms of production through age 27, but is ahead of the next tier of players in terms of early career production. Faulk had three seasons better than any of AP's years through age 27 and LT had five. In terms of their production, I do not think they are that comparable for Peterson. Faulk went on to have three more seasons of 16+ PPG after age 27, LT with two. Considering Peterson is valued as a regular top-5 pick in dynasty startups, that signals sell to me.

Hindsight is 20/20 but I would garner to say this time last year you thought Peterson peaked after his 3rd season. No one saw his 2k season coming. Most, if not all, thought he was done

 

[TheFanatic]

The final seasons before retirement (age 30), was the lowest of his career. Outside of one other year (age 24), it was the lowest by about 1.5 PPG. While we will never know if he would have bounced back at age 31, it is unlikely he returned to 16+ PPG at that age, even being Barry Sanders.

.

Why do you get to omit that year from your analysis? By omitting that year, you are simply trying to make numbers that do not fit your model to conform to it.

In other words, stop trying to shove the square peg in the round hole.

 

[TheFanatic]

When I say decline, I do not mean "falls off the map", I mean their production lags well below their peak window earlier in the their career and the "sell high" moment has passed. I did not conjure up that explanation when asked to support my statement, that is the actually reason for saying it in the first place. Do you disagree that Sanders could have been sold in dynasty circles for a fortune following his 2k season? Do you disagree that finishing the following season under 15 PPG (>7 PPG drop from year prior) would negatively affect an owner's chances to do that independent of the decision to retire?

So you think Peterson owners should sell now? Chances are his stats next year wont be near the same level. Is the point you're trying to make, that you should try to sell RBs after they have a great season?

My point is that when older RBs have a great season and can be sold for a gut of quality pieces, selling should be seriously considered. AP just had 21.6 PPG, his career high mark. Here is his career past to this point: 18.016.320.118.417.321.6 While many say he has no comparable players, that is true because he lags far behind guys like Marshall Faulk and Ladainian Tomlinson in terms of production through age 27, but is ahead of the next tier of players in terms of early career production. Faulk had three seasons better than any of AP's years through age 27 and LT had five. In terms of their production, I do not think they are that comparable for Peterson. Faulk went on to have three more seasons of 16+ PPG after age 27, LT with two. Considering Peterson is valued as a regular top-5 pick in dynasty startups, that signals sell to me.

Hindsight is 20/20 but I would garner to say this time last year you thought Peterson peaked after his 3rd season. No one saw his 2k season coming. Most, if not all, thought he was done

Based on these numbers, I would've sold ADP after his rookie season. Gotta go and put a for sale sign out front of my David Martin Property before the decline...

 

[cstu]

When I say decline, I do not mean "falls off the map", I mean their production lags well below their peak window earlier in the their career and the "sell high" moment has passed. I did not conjure up that explanation when asked to support my statement, that is the actually reason for saying it in the first place. Do you disagree that Sanders could have been sold in dynasty circles for a fortune following his 2k season? Do you disagree that finishing the following season under 15 PPG (>7 PPG drop from year prior) would negatively affect an owner's chances to do that independent of the decision to retire?

So you think Peterson owners should sell now? Chances are his stats next year wont be near the same level. Is the point you're trying to make, that you should try to sell RBs after they have a great season?

My point is that when older RBs have a great season and can be sold for a gut of quality pieces, selling should be seriously considered. AP just had 21.6 PPG, his career high mark. Here is his career past to this point: 18.016.320.118.417.321.6 While many say he has no comparable players, that is true because he lags far behind guys like Marshall Faulk and Ladainian Tomlinson in terms of production through age 27, but is ahead of the next tier of players in terms of early career production. Faulk had three seasons better than any of AP's years through age 27 and LT had five. In terms of their production, I do not think they are that comparable for Peterson. Faulk went on to have three more seasons of 16+ PPG after age 27, LT with two. Considering Peterson is valued as a regular top-5 pick in dynasty startups, that signals sell to me.

Hindsight is 20/20 but I would garner to say this time last year you thought Peterson peaked after his 3rd season. No one saw his 2k season coming. Most, if not all, thought he was done

Done? No way, but my feeling was that he would have a down year and then settle into some 1200 yard type seasons for the next few years. My experience watching other RB's decline tells me the same thing should happen to Peterson, but if anyone is going to buck the trend it's him. I can't imagine him reaching 2k yards again, but my expectations are three more 1500 yard seasons before he declines a bit.

 

[Csonka4life]

The two biggest old outliers have been missed Riggins and Allen. Riggins is probably the greatest old back ever and Allen had 2 or dead years where he blocked and had limited carries when he shared the backfield with Bo Jackson.

 

[CalBear]

Faulk went on to have three more seasons of 16+ PPG after age 27, LT with two.

Considering Peterson is valued as a regular top-5 pick in dynasty startups, that signals sell to me.

How many of the top-5 picks in dynasty startups will have more than three seasons of 16+ PPG?

 

[B-Deep]

One way to do very well in a dynasty is get all the aging players and win now while every year other owners try to win later.

You need a balance, Peterson gives you a great win now assett. If the rest of your team is such that you could make a run you go with peterson and make that run.

 

[KellysHeroes]

One way to do very well in a dynasty is get all the aging players and win now while every year other owners try to win later.

You need a balance, Peterson gives you a great win now assett. If the rest of your team is such that you could make a run you go with peterson and make that run.

In today's Fantasy, it so hard and expensive to trade for a Top 10 - 15 WR in their prime (24 - 29). The smart thing to do is build up your WR core via rookie draft / trading for them when their still young and struggling w the game a little bit. After you get a solid core of WRs that you feel can challenge the league then trade for RBs / QB that only have a couple of yrs left and make your run. In this case, a player like Peterson is not a good example because hes still expensive in the leagues I play in; but players like Chris Johnson / MJD / SJax / Reggie Bush / pretty much anyones back up QB that is over 32 and so on can be had for few draft picks and really boost your team for the short term.

Then trade what ever remaining picks you have for upgraded future picks and repeat the process

 

[cstu]

One way to do very well in a dynasty is get all the aging players and win now while every year other owners try to win later.

You need a balance, Peterson gives you a great win now assett. If the rest of your team is such that you could make a run you go with peterson and make that run.

In today's Fantasy, it so hard and expensive to trade for a Top 10 - 15 WR in their prime (24 - 29). The smart thing to do is build up your WR core via rookie draft / trading for them when their still young and struggling w the game a little bit. After you get a solid core of WRs that you feel can challenge the league then trade for RBs / QB that only have a couple of yrs left and make your run. In this case, a player like Peterson is not a good example because hes still expensive in the leagues I play in; but players like Chris Johnson / MJD / SJax / Reggie Bush / pretty much anyones back up QB that is over 32 and so on can be had for few draft picks and really boost your team for the short term.

Then trade what ever remaining picks you have for upgraded future picks and repeat the process

This is exactly what I did - acquiring Julio, Cobb, Nicks and Blackmon. Nothing at RB but in a 1 RB league it's pretty easy to acquire old RB's to roll with for year.