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RB Ameer Abdullah, LV (1 Viewer)

You're saying about the same as I am, but viewing it as a glass half full. 

He's a RBBC guy who gets snaps between the 20s (of which there are more) and replaced in most receiving downs and in the RZ. 

He is what he is. 

It's a shame, as I still believe he could be much, much more. 

Unfortunatelt for the FFB world, unless Jimbob Cooter feels that way, AA is a RB3-4 for fantasy purposes. 
The term RBBC gets overused in a negative connotation in FF IMO.  So long as you are productive and get at least 50% of the snaps, you'll be an RB2.

And as it relates to the Lions RZ/GL situation, we're talking about a team that from 2015-2017 has 16 rushing TD's as a team.  They haven't found a solution to who is going to be the guy down there.  I'm not saying it's going to be Abdullah, but who is DeWayne Washington?  He had 4 carries inside the 10 last year for 0 yards and 1 TD.  If anything, it was ZZ who was the GL back for DET in 2016 8/10/4 and he wasn't active Sunday.

After you get by the studs whose annual production you can set your watch to, it's about evaluating a balance of potential, production and opportunity.  I didn't draft Dalvin Cook so much as I drafted the rookie RB for MIN.  If that was Joe Mixon, I likely draft him.  Not because I like either back better over the other, but because the MIN situation simply looked a lot better than the CIN one.  More opportunity.

And in DET, there simply is greenfield related to the amount of opportunity for an RB to seize and at the very least Abdullah is in pole position.  Will he squander it?  TBD...but he hasn't done so yet as to be written off as a commodity we know to write off (i.e; Eddie Lacy).

 
The term RBBC gets overused in a negative connotation in FF IMO.  So long as you are productive and get at least 50% of the snaps, you'll be an RB2.
Not totally true. I agree with much of this. I own RBBC guys as well. They can be quite valuable. But situational usage is important to consider.

not all RBBC guys put up RB2 numbers. 

The ones who get GL carries are in non-PPR & the ones who dominate receptions tend to produce in PPR. 

We cant all have rosters of Bell, Cook, Hunt, McCoy so yes - RBBC guys can be great assets in FFB. 

And as it relates to the Lions RZ/GL situation, we're talking about a team that from 2015-2017 has 16 rushing TD's as a team.  They haven't found a solution to who is going to be the guy down there.  I'm not saying it's going to be Abdullah, but who is DeWayne Washington?  He had 4 carries inside the 10 last year for 0 yards and 1 TD.  If anything, it was ZZ who was the GL back for DET in 2016 8/10/4 and he wasn't active Sunday.
And that's part of AA's problem - that the Lions don't have a lot of scoring opportunities in the RZ. No argument there. It could also just be that's a byproduct of the offense they run. Some teams have lots (patriots) and some don't. Lions take a lot of shots deep. 

I don't know if it'll be Washington. It just seems to not be a role that DET wants to use AA in.

Could that evolve as the season goes? Absolutely. But until I see it, I can't assume the usage. 

After you get by the studs whose annual production you can set your watch to, it's about evaluating a balance of potential, production and opportunity.  I didn't draft Dalvin Cook so much as I drafted the rookie RB for MIN.  If that was Joe Mixon, I likely draft him.  Not because I like either back better over the other, but because the MIN situation simply looked a lot better than the CIN one.  More opportunity.
See, I was the opposite. I drafted Cook for what I saw his usage, along with his team.  I avoided Mixon because Hill & Gio crowded up the backfield.

was a bit disappointed to see so much McKinnon last night, but overall I liked the fact that Cook dominated carries. 

And in DET, there simply is greenfield related to the amount of opportunity for an RB to seize and at the very least Abdullah is in pole position.  Will he squander it?  TBD...but he hasn't done so yet as to be written off as a commodity we know to write off (i.e; Eddie Lacy).
.Absolutely - I cannot disagree with this. FFB players and DET fans have been waiting for someone to seize the role pretty much since Sanders retired. 

I don't know if this OC has the desire to annoint a feature back though. I thought recalled reading someone's evaluation of him that he's a believer in RBBC and putting players in their best position to succeed for their skill set. Kind of the new NFL mindset that's made some RBs far less valuable in FFB.

Again, I believe AA can be that guy. I was high on his ability and remain high. He's a talented kid. 

But if (and i'm not saying it's guaranteed) he only sees work between the 20s and gets ~50 targets in the season, there's not a ton of reason for optimism that he'll achieve RB2 numbers. 

Things change fast. Riddick or Washington could go down. Ya never know when a guy's role will expand.

if it does it'll be fun to watch, and I wish AA owners well.

thanks for the respectful discussion - this isn't a hill i care enough to die on, but it is a subject I'm interested in. I actually targeted DET WRs more heavily due to what I perceived as them being a pass-heavy offense. 

Whether or not that continues remains to be seen. It is only 1 week. They face a variety of opponents. Time will tell. 

 
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In Caldwell's first season, three Detroit backs had over 50 targets (Bell, Bush, Riddick.)

Jim Bob Cooter replaced Joe Lombardi as the OC halfway through 2015; the changes were mostly in blocking scheme and WR routes. Theo had 99 targets, the rest of the RBs 71 - of which 38 went to Ameer in his rookie year.

Last year isn't a great barometer because AA only played 2 games and Riddick 10. Riddick 67, others 44.

This year I am expecting Stafford to have 600 PA. My projected target distribution: WR - 375, TE - 85, RB - 140. The latter should be split around 100/40 if everyone stays healthy, but they never do.

Over the last two seasons:

  • Abdullah - 18 games, 43 targets, 2.39 /g, projected 38 over 16
  • Riddick - 26 games, 166 targets, 6.38 / g, projected 102 over 16
It's been pretty consistent and easy to predict over the last 3 seasons, and I didn't see anything in PS or last week that would make me adjust anything.

 
Hey you sound like I do on a different player ;)

I agree, the counter argument for Abdullah is always "that one play he looked like a top 5 RB." I think most RBs have "that one play" that makes them look incredible.

I liked Abdullah a lot coming out of college, and I still like him now because I think he has that potential to be a very good RB. I've been on the negative side of him saying he can't be a 3 down back, but I also see there's equal reasoning that he can be. At one point in the middle of the 4th quarter he had 2 less targets to Riddick... which I think is saying a lot. If he can get 4-5 targets a game that's huge. He may lose goal line carries, which hurts him as a potential RB1. So I think his ceiling is RB2

Anyone drafting Abdullah as their Rb2 is probably hurting a bit, because he's not going to cut it most weeks unless something changes in detroit. And something could change, I very well think it will. But Rb3/4 I think people can do a lot worse. Everything is there for him to be "that RB" that surprises for 2017, but I think the one thing stopping him is the play calling and personnel package decisions 
Ouch to the bolded.  It is early in the season so most AA owners are going to hold him at a minimum and continue to start him until something better comes along.  There are some decent RBs available on most waiver wires so maybe one of the saviors like Cohen, Allen, or Williams raise us from the dead. 

 
In Caldwell's first season, three Detroit backs had over 50 targets (Bell, Bush, Riddick.)

Jim Bob Cooter replaced Joe Lombardi as the OC halfway through 2015; the changes were mostly in blocking scheme and WR routes. Theo had 99 targets, the rest of the RBs 71 - of which 38 went to Ameer in his rookie year.

Last year isn't a great barometer because AA only played 2 games and Riddick 10. Riddick 67, others 44.

This year I am expecting Stafford to have 600 PA. My projected target distribution: WR - 375, TE - 85, RB - 140. The latter should be split around 100/40 if everyone stays healthy, but they never do.

Over the last two seasons:

  • Abdullah - 18 games, 43 targets, 2.39 /g, projected 38 over 16
  • Riddick - 26 games, 166 targets, 6.38 / g, projected 102 over 16
It's been pretty consistent and easy to predict over the last 3 seasons, and I didn't see anything in PS or last week that would make me adjust anything.


Excellent post. These are the numbers that back up what I've come to believe. And the reason why, in PPR, despite AA being higher on my "stock" draft sheet, I selected Riddick as a potential BYE/Flex back. In my personal rankings I projected him to get ~80 receptions, which would give him a very high weekly floor. 

That all said, I'm not sure how the big rookie receiver Golliday impacts those #s, and of course it's always possible for a RB to have a "break out performance" that lands him heavier usage in the future. 

It happens. And as you'd mentioned, players get hurt. If it's Riddick or Washington it obviously could benefit AA. 

Great contribution to the topic though. :yes:  

 
Ouch to the bolded.  It is early in the season so most AA owners are going to hold him at a minimum and continue to start him until something better comes along.  There are some decent RBs available on most waiver wires so maybe one of the saviors like Cohen, Allen, or Williams raise us from the dead. 
I'm not as down as Doc is on AA. (Hard to believe what with me being so "jaded" I realize. ;)   ) 

As others have suggested, he did get a ton of work, and he won't average 2 ypc all season. 

I can see AA being flex-worthy more weeks than not. 4.5 YPC & those 15 carries are 67.5 yards, with the evergreen possibility that his natural ability kicks in and he takes one the distance.

on that I wonder why we haven't seen it yet other than once in the 2015 preseason, but you have to believe it's coming. 

 
I'm not as down as Doc is on AA. (Hard to believe what with me being so "jaded" I realize. ;)   ) 

As others have suggested, he did get a ton of work, and he won't average 2 ypc all season. 

I can see AA being flex-worthy more weeks than not. 4.5 YPC & those 15 carries are 67.5 yards, with the evergreen possibility that his natural ability kicks in and he takes one the distance.

on that I wonder why we haven't seen it yet other than once in the 2015 preseason, but you have to believe it's coming. 
This was the highlight of those statistics IMO. He got a LOT of work and he won't average 2 ypc all season. This is huge. 

I agree, Abdullah was drafted to be my maybe flex spot in case Diggs didn't work out. I still think that's possible. 

 
This was the highlight of those statistics IMO. He got a LOT of work and he won't average 2 ypc all season. This is huge. 

I agree, Abdullah was drafted to be my maybe flex spot in case Diggs didn't work out. I still think that's possible. 
The caveat of course to what you bolded being "good luck figuring out which weeks he's worth flexing."

Obv week 1 he burned people. Maybe week 2 he won't - but as you suggest, it matters what your options are. As a fellow Diggs owner, WOOHOO! But not everyone has the option to plug in a Diggs at Flex over Abdullah. 

week 2 there's a lot of talent on the wire to capitalize on. I wouldn't drop AA, but I could see taking a flier on a Golliday or Cohen,  or maybe a Buck Allen and benching AA until you feel more confident in starting him.

there are generally two schools of thought in FFB: 

1. Start the team you drafted, damn the results. This is true IMO for someone like Bell or Julio who didn't have great week 1 games but will undubtedly do well later.

2. Better to make a change early and wait & see on some of your more questionable roster options. 

I'd be in that latter camp, were I an Abdullah owner.  

 
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I think I can record this, it's going to take me a minute.

There's too much penetration by ARI and I've literally screamed Golladay's name three times, holy ####### #### can this dude not run block. 

 
The caveat of course to what you bolded being "good luck figuring out which weeks he's worth flexing."

Obv week 1 he burned people. Maybe week 2 he won't - but as you suggest, it matters what your options are. As a fellow Diggs owner, WOOHOO! But not everyone has the option to plug in a Diggs at Flex over Abdullah. 

week 2 there's a lot of talent on the wire to capitalize on. I wouldn't drop AA, but I could see taking a flier on a Golliday or Cohen,  or maybe a Buck Allen and benching AA until you feel more confident in starting him.

there are generally two schools of thought in FFB: 

1. Start the team you drafted, damn the results. This is true IMO for someone like Bell or Julio who didn't have great week 1 games but will undubtedly do well later.

2. Better to make a change early and wait & see on some of your more questionable roster options. 

I'd be in that latter camp, were I an Abdullah owner.  
go figure... friggen Golladay was drafted in my league but Cohen was not! only myself to blame... I always feel so prepared and it turns out I am always crazy unprepared. 

 
I think I can record this, it's going to take me a minute.

There's too much penetration by ARI and I've literally screamed Golladay's name three times, holy ####### #### can this dude not run block. 
Pretty sure they didn't draft him for that,  but it's valuable info, since many will attribute the penetration to AZ D being that good.

if it's a run-blocking issue then it won't matter who the opponent is. 

 
Pretty sure they didn't draft him for that,  but it's valuable info, since many will attribute the penetration to AZ D being that good.

if it's a run-blocking issue then it won't matter who the opponent is. 
It matters as much, no more, for everyone jumping to bid on Kenny G tonight.

 
It matters as much, no more, for everyone jumping to bid on Kenny G tonight.
Yeah - I'm one of them. I've got 2nd priority and #1 is getting Cohen. 

So now I have to decide if Kenny G is worth giving up #1 priority for or not. If he can't block, he may see fewer snaps.

:doh:  

 
^^^ Thx SSND,

Ameer doesn't have nearly as much power as I'd hoped he would coming out of college. Especially now in his third year he should be breaking arm tackles if he's ever going to. He doesn't and probably won't.

 
^^^ Thx SSND,

Ameer doesn't have nearly as much power as I'd hoped he would coming out of college. Especially now in his third year he should be breaking arm tackles if he's ever going to. He doesn't and probably won't.
Yeah, I agree. And he has a lot of arms grabbing at him on every carry despite the light fronts. I still think if he's afforded room to run he can total 60-80 yards from scrimmage pretty easily, obviously this assumes requisite volume. The good news is he'll likely see light front all season. At least we get to watch him on MNF this week, even if it's another tough match-up. I think his schedule gets a bit better towards the middle of the season.

 
I think his schedule gets a bit better towards the middle of the season.
Looking at the schedule it appears so. 

Might not matter if he continues to struggle. 

Agree about his lack of power.  I would think his acceleration alone would result in breaking the 1st tackle. 

Also, he had none chance on that 1st reception with a defender apparently spying on him. 

 
Thanks for posting the cut ups SSND

I only watched one time and no slow motion. Looked like a guy getting 2 yards per carry.

On one of the runs from the back side view I can see some space for him if he would cut the ball back inside on the outside zone run. He might be met by a defender at the LOS if he does cut it back but at least he could be hitting the LOS full speed and try to make something happen. Instead he follows his blockers and the Cardinals are too fast to the edge and take him down for no gain. I liked his chances better if he cuts this back to the middle due to the pursuit, but he doesn't do that.

 
Thanks for posting the cut ups SSND

I only watched one time and no slow motion. Looked like a guy getting 2 yards per carry.

On one of the runs from the back side view I can see some space for him if he would cut the ball back inside on the outside zone run. He might be met by a defender at the LOS if he does cut it back but at least he could be hitting the LOS full speed and try to make something happen. Instead he follows his blockers and the Cardinals are too fast to the edge and take him down for no gain. I liked his chances better if he cuts this back to the middle due to the pursuit, but he doesn't do that.
I'm surprised how bad he looks. No vision, patience or ability to set up blocks. I've always thought he doesn't have the speed to get to the edge or the size to run inside. But as his price has come down I've been thinking of buying. After this I'm just going to wait.

 
EDIT: I suppose I'll edit my assessment on my initial post above... 8 playoff teams really isn't that bad (especially if 4 of those games are in your own division) so really their schedule isn't as bad as I originally thought.
And on top of this, "playoff team" does not equate to tough matchup for opposing RB1.

Preseason forecasting of defensive matchups is notoriously unreliable, but FWIW FBG ultimate SOS in mid August showed MIN RBs with 5 favorable matchups (among 8 best matchups), 4 unfavorable matchups (among 8 worst matchups), and 7 neutral matchups (in the middle). The bad news is that his stretch of matchups in weeks 14-16 is bad according to that article -- @CAR, CIN, @GB.

 
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And on top of this, "playoff team" does not equate to tough matchup for opposing RB1.

Preseason forecasting of defensive matchups is notoriously unreliable, but FWIW FBG ultimate SOS in mid August showed MIN RBs with 5 favorable matchups (among 8 best matchups), 4 unfavorable matchups (among 8 worst matchups), and 7 neutral matchups (in the middle). The bad news is that his stretch of matchups in weeks 14-16 is bad according to that article -- @CAR, CIN, @GB.
yes but I just look at it as a playoff team will likely mean Detroit won't be churning the clock at the end in a blow out. that's all. but yes you are correct 

 
And on top of this, "playoff team" does not equate to tough matchup for opposing RB1.

Preseason forecasting of defensive matchups is notoriously unreliable, but FWIW FBG ultimate SOS in mid August showed MIN RBs with 5 favorable matchups (among 8 best matchups), 4 unfavorable matchups (among 8 worst matchups), and 7 neutral matchups (in the middle). The bad news is that his stretch of matchups in weeks 14-16 is bad according to that article -- @CAR, CIN, @GB.
A lot can happen to a defense in 14 weeks though. 

Look how bad NE looked after Hightower left. That's just one guy. Any of those teams could be as good, better or worse than opening day by week 14/15/16. 

Just food for thought - it's a dynamic game. Things change fast. Injuries are inevitable.

 
Agree. When you factor in the matchup it isn't surprising he disappointed this week. My biggest concern isn't Riddick. Rather it is D. Washington stealing goal line touches. 
D Wash has side and speed but lacks experience...he seems to have picked up that part of his game a bit and passed Zenner and will be looking to earn more touches

 
this weekend, DET plays at Giants who gave up 129 total ground yards to Cowboys

I kinda expect Giants to really play stopping DET passing game - opening up Abdullah for a nice week. Elliot had 5 targets and 5 catches last week against Giants

I'd expect 60 yards on the ground, 4 catches for another 40 .... 100 total yards and a chance at a TD

 
this weekend, DET plays at Giants who gave up 129 total ground yards to Cowboys

I kinda expect Giants to really play stopping DET passing game - opening up Abdullah for a nice week. Elliot had 5 targets and 5 catches last week against Giants

I'd expect 60 yards on the ground, 4 catches for another 40 .... 100 total yards and a chance at a TD
I'll take the under

 
I'm a big Ameer fan, but I'm expecting another bad game.  The Giants and Lions played toward the end of the season last year and the Giants won 17-6.  I think this game will be controlled by the G-men as well.

 
I'm a big Ameer fan, but I'm expecting another bad game.  The Giants and Lions played toward the end of the season last year and the Giants won 17-6.  I think this game will be controlled by the G-men as well.
Stafford's hand was injured by that time so bear that in mind when comparing last year to this year.

 
Yeah, I still believe in Abdullah's talent, but this week is probably going to be pretty bad for him unless he gets a lot of quick dump off passes or something.

 
Ameer's 18 touches last week were a new career high, and his 15 carries were only 1 off his career best. I thought it was encouraging Jim Bob Cooter didn't abandon the run game even though they didn't have much success with it.

Amazing how much buzz has surrounded him considering how little he has accomplished. Lionized Lambskin isn't exactly going out on a limb - he's only topped 50 YFS 7 times in 19 career games. Scored on a 24 yarder in his first NFL carry; has one (1) exactly rushing TD in the the two plus years since (not fair, he missed 14 games last year....still.)

If he stays healthy, though, he should be in line for a 200-220 RA season. Big fan and hoping he takes a step forward this year.

Some neat facts:

  • the last Detroit Lion to rush for 1,000 yards in a season was Keven Jones, 2004 (longest active streak in the NFL)
  • the last Detroit Lion to rush for 100 yards in a season was Reggie Bush, Thanksgiving 2013 (53 games - the NFL record is 72 by the Redskins in the early 60s)
  • In the 110 starts Matthew Stafford has made, the Lions have had 7 100 yard rushers
 
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Ameer's 18 touches last week were a new career high, and his 15 carries were only 1 off his career best. I thought it was encouraging Jim Bob Cooter didn't abandon the run game even though they didn't have much success with it.

Amazing how much buzz has surrounded him considering how little he has accomplished. Lionized Lambskin isn't exactly going out on a limb - he's only topped 50 YFS 7 times in 19 career games. Scored on a 24 yarder in his first NFL carry; has one (1) exactly rushing TD in the the two plus years since (not fair, he missed 14 games last year....still.)

If he stays healthy, though, he should be in line for a 200-220 RA season. Big fan and hoping he takes a step forward this year.

Some neat facts:

  • the last Detroit Lion to rush for 1,000 yards in a season was Keven Jones, 2004 (longest active streak in the NFL)
  • the last Detroit Lion to rush for 100 yards in a season was Reggie Bush, Thanksgiving 2013 (53 games - the NFL record is 72 by the Redskins in the early 60s)
  • In the 110 starts Matthew Stafford has made, the Lions have had 7 100 yard rushers
Don't have official stats, but by my recollection the Lions ran on every first down except two.  I appreciate trying to establish the run, but should be a better mix on first down.   

 
And three of those were in the no huddle less than a minute left FG drive at the end of the half.  So take away those three because those were must pass situations, so really 22 of 26 runs on first down.  It is ok, but really need a better mix.  

 
Seems like everyone is down on him this week. Sitting him for Kerwynn Williams this week. Definitely not feeling great about it but not feeling good about Ameer's matchup either. 

 
Seems like everyone is down on him this week. Sitting him for Kerwynn Williams this week. Definitely not feeling great about it but not feeling good about Ameer's matchup either. 
That is about a coin flip.  Neither match up great, but each should get their 15 touches.  As bad as the Colts are, they still contained Gurley last week. 

 
All quiet on the Abdullah front. Am I the only one starting this guy tonight.

I had pretty big hopes for him at the point I drafted him in redraft. Here's to hoping he can get some momentum going.

 
All quiet on the Abdullah front. Am I the only one starting this guy tonight.

I had pretty big hopes for him at the point I drafted him in redraft. Here's to hoping he can get some momentum going.
I have him going in two leagues. Just hoping he breaks one and gets in the endzone. That would be good to see.

 
I'm starting him too... figure the NYG secondary is pretty good... DET likes to pass to RBs anyway... fingers crossed.

 
Sat him this week, partly because of the match-up. Hoping to see some spark and a reason to start him soon though. Need him in at least one league.

 

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