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RB Ameer Abdullah, LV (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Dondante
Footballguy
Got lucky and saw the news this morning before (I guess) my league-mates did. Picked up Washington after waivers. Very interested to see what this kid can do based on the Washington thread. LOTS of hype in there. We shall see.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
So in a year where RBs seem to be at a premium, and a starting RB goes down we shouldn't get excited over his replacement? A replacement that has shown flashes of doing pretty darn well? Yes, he's not the second coming but has great potential to be a useful RB2/Flex IMO
He's nothing to get overly excited about, but feel free to blow your wad acquiring him. I'll come back and eat my crow after the season if necessary (spoiler: that's very unlikely).
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ponchsox
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
He's not David Johnson but he's also not C-Mike
I think he has some solid upside being a goal line back and getting a reasonable chunk of the rushing attempts. It's the Lions, yes, but they are not really a pass first offense any longer; they are more balanced. Funny how after week 1 everyone is intrigued by them after beating the Colts but lose to the Titans and suddenly it's back to "this the Lions we are talking about..." Not saying the Lions are winning the superbowl but a year ago they were thought to compete pretty significantly for the division.
Again, I think getting a goal line back for any team is reason enough to get excited. I rode Asiata to a superbowl win two years ago just riding his 1-2 TD games. He was pretty worthless otherwise. Worst case scenario, IMO, Washington is a goal line back who has potential to score a TD a game and maybe add 25-30 yards at a minimum if he's not getting more than 10 or so rushing attempts.
I would agree a lot of people here are thinking they've got this year's David Johnson. Unless something happens to Riddick, that's not happening. But a suitable RB2/3 is very possible and that is definitely something to get excited about. Especially when so many RBs are hurt now.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Ugh. First two picks in my keep 4 were Keenan Allen and Ameer.
Sucks... Bad luck sometimes. This is my first significant injury in probably 4-5 years, and it's technically my RB3. It makes it tough until Bell comes back and then for bye weeks. Hopefully Washington can fill in okay
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Milkman
Footballguy
Good chance DW is the starting RB the rest of the year. If he doesn't fumble I'd say he might even be a slight favorite to start over AA when everybody is healthy.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
Dwayne Washington/Zenner will be replaced by a RB the Lions draft in 2017. I'm certain of that.
Look at Washington's college stats. Barely carried the ball in college.
Look at Washington's college stats. Barely carried the ball in college.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Bishop Sankey and Miles Gaskin were part of the reason why.
Gaskin is really good. A bit like Abdullah actually. A cross between Abdullah and Ray Rice.
Not to say that Washington is a great talent. I think he's pretty ordinary, but his stats are more forgivable when you consider that the guys he was losing carries to were high NFL draft picks.
BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
Ameer Abdullah - RB - Lions
Ameer Abdullah (foot, I.R.) will visit Dr. Robert Anderson on Tuesday to see if he can start practicing.
If he gets the green light from Dr. Anderson, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said it's "realistic" that he could be activated within three weeks. That would put Abdullah on track to return sometime during the fantasy playoffs. He would likely resume his role as the early-down hammer with Theo Riddick getting most of the passing-down work. Abdullah was giving fantasy owners RB2 production prior to his injury.
Ameer Abdullah (foot, I.R.) will visit Dr. Robert Anderson on Tuesday to see if he can start practicing.
If he gets the green light from Dr. Anderson, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said it's "realistic" that he could be activated within three weeks. That would put Abdullah on track to return sometime during the fantasy playoffs. He would likely resume his role as the early-down hammer with Theo Riddick getting most of the passing-down work. Abdullah was giving fantasy owners RB2 production prior to his injury.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Returns as is plays or returns as in begins practicing? Hopefully you mean begins practicing.
No, he's likely not returning this week. When he does he's likely 2-3 weeks from even playing a game.
Chances are probably 80-20 that the Lions bring back Bostic instead of Abdullah. They have to decide soon
Pwingles
Footballguy
ugh, a lisfranc tear? hypetrain still on course?
edit*
found this, interesting info here on similar injuries
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0363546516645082
edit*
found this, interesting info here on similar injuries
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0363546516645082
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
I had a very large suspicion that this was a lisfranc from the beginning. I wouldn't say it tempers my expectations becuase they were fairly low to begin with.
However by all accounts it seems he is doing well. The study referenced by pwingles is a very good one. Since he got hurt so early I would not expect it to slow his chances of starting the season right away. Also since the Lions did not draft a RB I think that is a big vote of confidence for Ammer.
Make or break season for him IMO
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
I'm back and forth. One of those fool me once shame on me sort of scenarios...
He did look good but I am not really excited to hitch on to a horse that had a pretty bad injury last season. If I can grab him as my RB3 (unlikely) I'd be absolutely thrilled. I think if DET drafted a rookie at any point (round 5-7 especially) that would have allowed for some serious value here.
depends what he does before draft days. Zenner could be overvalued as people are overlooking Abdullah. I may be grabbing him but idk if I want to use my RB2 slot on him again.
need2know
Footballguy
I'm not sure there's much hypetrain left. I was hesitant to board in year 1, but when his price dropped last year I was all about it. As long as there are no lingering effects, I see no reason why we shouldn't expect RB2 numbers out of him this year at a cheap ~RB27 ADP price tag. If he's healed up, he should be back to 100%. And all signs from the front office are that they think he's healed up. I really expected them to bring someone in either via the draft or free agency, but now that they have not, he will be a top target of mind in all formats. Here's to hoping this news somehow decreases his ADP/AAV more!
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Technically he was mine I guess. Bell, Gio, Abdullah... I guess there is some high hope that I could get him as a RB3. I'd be thrilled with that probably.need2know said:
Yes. He should out perform RB27 above and beyond. I am concerned about Riddick stealing a lot of value. Zenner looked good so this could be a 3 headed monster reminiscent of NYG last season. But Abdullah is the most talented and electrifying of the bunch no doubt.FF Ninja said:
RB2? Eh... I guess technically he should perform within RB 13-24. I guess for me I would rather have RB 13-18 than 19-24 as my RB2, but you never know how the draft will work out. I wouldn't be devastated with him as my RB2 as I agree he should perform pretty well. As long as he is completely healed. Sounded like he might have even come back last year maybe so I am expecting him to be fine medically. As I said above, I'd be thrilled with him at RB3 and would likely target him as such with the expectation that I would be pretty set at RB if he pans out.
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Just a refresher for context...
Riddick and Abdullah in game one 2016
Each had 5 catches on 5 targets, fwiw.
Riddick and Abdullah in game one 2016
Each had 5 catches on 5 targets, fwiw.
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
If healthy I believe he will get every chance to lead the backfield in opportunities. He can make things happen in the passing game as well. I would guess about 50% Abdullah...35-40 Riddick...10-15 remainder. If healthy Abdullah for sure will be a RB2....probably on the high end PPR.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Love that clip... the announcer saying "the offensive line is holding up" as Ameer is met 2 yards in the backfield by 4 unblocked defenders, and gains the first down by juking around the other end completely.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Also for context, Jonas Gray had a 201 yard 4 touchdown game against the colts defense.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Yeah, Riddick will get a lot of catches, but that doesn't mean Abdullah won't be used in the passing game when he's in there. I think 200 carries and 50 receptions sounds reasonable for him which should put him in the RB13-18 category you mentioned rather than 19-24. This hinges on him being the featured back, which all signs (and coach speak) point towards.
My plan is not so much to have him as my RB3 in name, but rather grab a bunch of late RB2 or RB3 upside guys like him and hope a few of them pan out. Hard to do in a snake draft, but playing auction primarily, I think I'll be able to achieve that. Just grab a handful of guys like Lynch, CJA, Abdullah, Martin, Dixon...
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I see a few. Riddick as a 3rd down back and Zenner or Asiata at the goaline.FF Ninja said:
If he's truly the "featured back" those obstacles might keep him from RB1 numbers, but 200 carries and 50 rec should get him RB2 numbers easily. Or do you think those 16 game usage totals are unrealistic? The improved OL should help him keep his ypc pretty high and just because Riddick will be in the game on 3rd downs, it doesn't mean they won't utilize Abdullah's receiving skills on 1st and 2nd down.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not sure how we are defining "feature back" with him but early last season, the Lions used a 3 man RBBC and with the same coaching staff in place I'm not sure if that changes (even if the GM called him a "feature back").
I'm not sure he gets to 50 receptions as they really seem to like Riddick in that role, but those numbers are surely not unrealistic (but I'm also not sure I'd call them "probable"). Zenner looked good down the stretch once he got his chance and Riddick is better in the passing down role than Abdullah is. Abdullah may catch passes on first and second downs, but they use Tate a lot in the short passing game and it's a possibility Ebron starts to put things together. His floor is likely 35 catches in a healthy season though so 50 is attainable. How many TDs will he score if they use Zenner at the GL? Maybe 5?
I actually like Abdullah and wouldn't say RB2 numbers are out of the question, but you stated that there really are no obstacles to him reaching that status, and I kind of think there are - even if we ignore his injury risks.
C'mon.. the injury risks thing bugs me. The guy wasn't injured to my knowledge in college and he played a 16 game season in his rookie year (albeit not a huge workload - 10.5 touches per game, I'm projecting 15.6 this year). So he's basically had 1 injury to speak of and people are acting like he's made of glass all of a sudden. Gordon has ended both seasons on the IR and had microfracture surgery and I never hear people talking about his injury risk. I guess it's all about when you get injured. Tear your ACL in week 16 and nobody really cares (Peterson), but get a Lisfranc in week 2 and you're injury prone.
As for passing downs - Riddick is good, but is he actually better than Abdullah? The way I've always assumed it was is that Abdullah is just as good at pass catching, but Riddick isn't worth much as a runner, so if they're going to split the workload, the way they do it makes sense. Should Riddick get hurt, I think Abdullah would instantly become a huge PPR asset if he inherited that role (Riddick has had 6.4 targets/game over the past 2 years). And I know it's a different system, but Crowell managed 40 receptions despite Duke owning 3rd downs. Given that receiving is a strength, I expect they'll find a way to get Abdullah the ball in the air on the early downs.
And going backward, I don't really know what feature back means, either, but I'm assuming it means he'll get the bulk of the carries. And I'm not so sure about that 3 man RBBC last year. We only have 1 week to go by, but in week 1 Abdullah played 40 snaps, Riddick played 24, and Washington played 2. It was just Riddick and Washington in weeks 2 and 3 (after Adbullah got hurt after 17 snaps in week 2). So early in the year they seemed to go with a 2 man rotation, but I know Washington and Riddick later got hurt, so end of year stats probably make it look like a 3 man rotation, but it wasn't.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
It was a very very minor part of what I said, and even went as far as to say it was not even weighing into my thought process on why isn't a lock to finish as a RB2.
I didn't say he was injury prone, but every RB has injury risk. I think that risk would increase for him at only 203 pounds if he saw a feature back workload though. Doesn't mean he would get injured though.
Riddick is better in the passing game (imo and in the coach's opinion apparently) but there's really no way to quantify it I guess - However, I'm not sure if it matters for our purposes though if the coaching staff continues to use Riddick in that role it hurts Abdullah's value in fantasy ppr leagues even if they are equally qualified to handle that role. I don't see it changing this season so "it is what it is". Riddick is the preferred passing game option.
As for the 3 man RBBC, I apologize as I was mixing 2015 in there as well I guess when it was Abdullah-Riddick-Bell. You are right that we really don't know what would have happened last season since Abdullah went down so early. I'm cautious though in my projections for Abdullah. Zenner showed something late in the season and at worst I see him, Washington or Asiata (if he makes the team) handling short yardage and GL situations.
Gotcha. I might be a little testy about it due to constantly hearing it elsewhere.
I agree that the loss (not that he ever had it) of goal line duties will happen and it limits upside, but volume is a huge part of fantasy points and if "featured back" means what I'm guessing it means, then Abdullah should have plenty of volume on a pretty good offense. I think he's one of the safer draft picks in his range, and with plenty of upside if he ever lives up to the potential his sparq score and scouting reports suggest he has.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I still think Ameer Abdullah is a talented RB and he has been somewhat unlucky with injuries thus far.
Because of the small sample size, most of this being his rookie season, it is difficult to project what he will do in 2017 based off of that. He has only started 11 games and played in 18 games.
Looking at the game logs, Ameer was targeted quite a bit as a rookie in his first 4 games where he had four, one, five and five targets. In games 3 and 4 however, he only caught two of his five targets in those games. and you see the Lions using him less as a receiver for the most part the rest of the 2015 season. At this same time you see Riddick thriving as a receiver and maintaining pretty high targets throughout the 2015 season and he ends up with 99 targets 80 receptions.
2016 Ameer does well against the Colts, then get injured in the second game against the Titans. While 5 receptions in that game is great, Ameers career catch percentage (69.8%) is slightly below average for a RB. While RIddick is much more efficient as a receiver for his career which is a larger sample size.
As long as RIddick is healthy I think this limits Ameers opportunity as a receiver, although there certainly can be games where both of them are getting a decent amount of targets. I think that will be more erratic for Ameer than it will be for Riddick.
For Ameer 40-60 targets is more what I see for him if healthy over 16 games, or 2.5-3.75 targets/game. Assuming he improves to the average catch percentage for a RB (73%) that would be 29-43 receptions.
I do think Ameer may get 200 rushing attempts in 2017. Possibly more. I just think his use as a receiver will be limited.
It is enough opportunity that Ameer could be a RB two for fantasy this year, but more likely a RB three.
In PPR formats Riddick may be the safer bet to start (for fantasy) than Ameer.
Because of the small sample size, most of this being his rookie season, it is difficult to project what he will do in 2017 based off of that. He has only started 11 games and played in 18 games.
Looking at the game logs, Ameer was targeted quite a bit as a rookie in his first 4 games where he had four, one, five and five targets. In games 3 and 4 however, he only caught two of his five targets in those games. and you see the Lions using him less as a receiver for the most part the rest of the 2015 season. At this same time you see Riddick thriving as a receiver and maintaining pretty high targets throughout the 2015 season and he ends up with 99 targets 80 receptions.
2016 Ameer does well against the Colts, then get injured in the second game against the Titans. While 5 receptions in that game is great, Ameers career catch percentage (69.8%) is slightly below average for a RB. While RIddick is much more efficient as a receiver for his career which is a larger sample size.
As long as RIddick is healthy I think this limits Ameers opportunity as a receiver, although there certainly can be games where both of them are getting a decent amount of targets. I think that will be more erratic for Ameer than it will be for Riddick.
For Ameer 40-60 targets is more what I see for him if healthy over 16 games, or 2.5-3.75 targets/game. Assuming he improves to the average catch percentage for a RB (73%) that would be 29-43 receptions.
I do think Ameer may get 200 rushing attempts in 2017. Possibly more. I just think his use as a receiver will be limited.
It is enough opportunity that Ameer could be a RB two for fantasy this year, but more likely a RB three.
In PPR formats Riddick may be the safer bet to start (for fantasy) than Ameer.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It's worth noting that looking through the play by play of the little bit Abdullah played last year it looks like the Lions were giving Riddick all of the work on every 3rd drive. He wasn't playing solely passing situations.
That was before Abdullah got hurt twice in two games so I'm not optimistic they would be looking to increase his workload from there. Washington took the only 2 goaline carries (and the only 2 carries he had) in the games Abdullah played so it doesn't seem like there are plans to keep Abdullah (or Riddick) in at the goaline either.
That would leave him as the lead back on 2 of every 3 drives, while ceding the carries at the goaline to another runner and likely seeding garbage time or two minute drill situations to Riddick. If he is spelled at the goaline, spelled in garbage time, and spelled on every 3rd drive to rest, he is going to have to be awfully efficient with the touches he does get to be more than a low end RB2 this year in ppg.
That was before Abdullah got hurt twice in two games so I'm not optimistic they would be looking to increase his workload from there. Washington took the only 2 goaline carries (and the only 2 carries he had) in the games Abdullah played so it doesn't seem like there are plans to keep Abdullah (or Riddick) in at the goaline either.
That would leave him as the lead back on 2 of every 3 drives, while ceding the carries at the goaline to another runner and likely seeding garbage time or two minute drill situations to Riddick. If he is spelled at the goaline, spelled in garbage time, and spelled on every 3rd drive to rest, he is going to have to be awfully efficient with the touches he does get to be more than a low end RB2 this year in ppg.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I recall Riddick being a red zone passing option for the Lions last year. One that was missed when he was injured.
Red zone 7 rushing attempts 9 yards 1.3 ypc 0 TD 14 targets 11 receptions 57 yards 5.2 ypr 5 TD. in 10 games.
Not very good as a runner but getting it done as a receiver.
Red zone 7 rushing attempts 9 yards 1.3 ypc 0 TD 14 targets 11 receptions 57 yards 5.2 ypr 5 TD. in 10 games.
Not very good as a runner but getting it done as a receiver.
