RB Ashton Jeanty, LV (6 Viewers)

[eighsse2]

Fair points about Mostert's age. I think he's a JAG despite his extremely good numbers. But 2022-2023 he had a combined 450 touches. Though each year is further separation from his prime, that isn't exactly ancient history. Just saying, don't be blown away if Jeanty gets <70% of RB touches.

 

[JohnnyU]

Fair points about Mostert's age. I think he's a JAG despite his extremely good numbers. But 2022-2023 he had a combined 450 touches. Though each year is further separation from his prime, that isn't exactly ancient history. Just saying, don't be blown away if Jeanty gets <70% of RB touches.

Only if the coach doesn’t like his job, but how many RBs actually get 70% of the touches these days?

 

[Chaka]

Fair points about Mostert's age. I think he's a JAG despite his extremely good numbers. But 2022-2023 he had a combined 450 touches. Though each year is further separation from his prime, that isn't exactly ancient history. Just saying, don't be blown away if Jeanty gets <70% of RB touches.

Only if the coach doesn’t like his job, but how many RBs actually get 70% of the touches these days?

70% seems high for almost any RB. Although Barkley and Henry both hit 74% (ish) last year. Not sure if anyone else did.

I think the framework of the question regarding touch distribution between Jeanty & everyone else comes down to if we think the Raiders will manage more plays overall this season.

Last year their RBs has ~390 touches. In that context 70% (273 touches) to Jeanty seems more than attainable. If they manage 450 this season 70% is 315 touches, which also seems like something Jeanty could handle and I don't think anyone would say they were overusing him at that amount.

 

[WVU Alum]

I will have zero shares of this guy, not for lack of trying. Can’t pry the 1.01 away from anyone.

 

[eighsse2]

Fair points about Mostert's age. I think he's a JAG despite his extremely good numbers. But 2022-2023 he had a combined 450 touches. Though each year is further separation from his prime, that isn't exactly ancient history. Just saying, don't be blown away if Jeanty gets <70% of RB touches.

Only if the coach doesn’t like his job, but how many RBs actually get 70% of the touches these days?

70% seems high for almost any RB. Although Barkley and Henry both hit 74% (ish) last year. Not sure if anyone else did.

I think the framework of the question regarding touch distribution between Jeanty & everyone else comes down to if we think the Raiders will manage more plays overall this season.

Last year their RBs has ~390 touches. In that context 70% (273 touches) to Jeanty seems more than attainable. If they manage 450 this season 70% is 315 touches, which also seems like something Jeanty could handle and I don't think anyone would say they were overusing him at that amount.

I guess I was interpreting the original quote as a pretty extreme statement that would mean something in the 70+% ballpark.

The primary back on all downs will be Jeanty. He is a good receiver and the only reason to take him out is for a breather.

But that was just my interpretation. "Primary back on all downs" could also mean nothing more than having plurality of touches on each of first, second, and third downs.

 

[Dez]

The fear is real I just landed Jeanty at the 2.02 in an underdog today this is the first time I seen him drop to the 2nd round since I been drafting this year in underdog after the NFL Draft.

 

[TheWinz]

Great question about % of teams RB touches. It's misleading when a team uses their backups differently. Of last year's top 24 fantasy RB's, here's how they rank in team RB touches:

78.8% - Williams (350/444)
76.0% - Swift (295/388)
74.7% - Barkley (378/506)
74.5% - Henry (344/462)
73.6% - Taylor (321/436)
70.9% - Hubbard (293/413)
69.1% - Robinson (365/528)
68.4% - Pollard (301/440)
68.0% - Brown (283/416)
67.5% - Jones (306/453)
66.7% - Jacobs (337/505)
66.5% - Kamara (296/445)
66.3% - Dowdle (274/413)
65.5% - Mixon (281/429)
63.9% - Hall (266/416)
62.3% - Conner (283/454)
58.4% - Harris (299/512)
56.7% - Achane (281/496)
55.5% - Cook (239/431)
54.0% - Dobbins (227/420)
52.7% - Gibbs (302/573)
50.0% - Irving (254/508)
38.6% - Montgomery (221/573)
38.4% - White (195/508)

No other RB reached 60%. Seeing Swift at #2 is a shocker.

 

[Chaka]

Great question about % of teams RB touches. It's misleading when a team uses their backups differently. Of last year's top 24 fantasy RB's, here's how they rank in team RB touches:

78.8% - Williams (350/444)
76.0% - Swift (295/388)
74.7% - Barkley (378/506)
74.5% - Henry (344/462)
73.6% - Taylor (321/436)
70.9% - Hubbard (293/413)
69.1% - Robinson (365/528)
68.4% - Pollard (301/440)
68.0% - Brown (283/416)
67.5% - Jones (306/453)
66.7% - Jacobs (337/505)
66.5% - Kamara (296/445)
66.3% - Dowdle (274/413)
65.5% - Mixon (281/429)
63.9% - Hall (266/416)
62.3% - Conner (283/454)
58.4% - Harris (299/512)
56.7% - Achane (281/496)
55.5% - Cook (239/431)
54.0% - Dobbins (227/420)
52.7% - Gibbs (302/573)
50.0% - Irving (254/508)
38.6% - Montgomery (221/573)
38.4% - White (195/508)

No other RB reached 60%. Seeing Swift at #2 is a shocker.

Great post. Don't know where you got it but awesome.

Looking at that, at worst I guess Jeanty's share will start at '24 Mixon (65.5%).

 

[TheWinz]

Great post. Don't know where you got it but awesome.

Looking at that, at worst I guess Jeanty's share will start at '24 Mixon (65.5%).

Agreed. I think he will eclipse 70%, but his floor should be around Mixon. As for the stats, I just opened Pro Football Reference website and started crunching numbers. Gimme a few beers and I will sit and crunch numbers all night.

 

[Sarlakticacid]

The Athletic’s Tashan Reed believes Raiders RB Raheem Mostert “will be the primary third-down back.”

That person is flat out wrong and everyone knows it. The primary back on all downs will be Jeanty. He is a good receiver and the only reason to take him out is for a breather.

*BUZZ*
"Who is: Tyler Allgeier?"

He's a guy who split 365 to 150 last year with Bijan

He's also not Raherm Mostert.

On a side note, it's a little known fact but, if you look at his long form birth certificate, Raherm Mostert is actually 75 years old.

All those Hours in the Sun surfing sure do take a toll on a fella

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Fair points about Mostert's age. I think he's a JAG despite his extremely good numbers. But 2022-2023 he had a combined 450 touches. Though each year is further separation from his prime, that isn't exactly ancient history. Just saying, don't be blown away if Jeanty gets <70% of RB touches.

I think 2-3 years ago is ancient history when talking about a 33 year old RB.

When a 32 year old RB has a sucky season it's usually because they've hit the wall. How many RBs have a terrible season at age 32 and then end up bouncing back? I'm sure it's happened but 99% of the time a RB sucks at age 32 it's because they're donezo.

 

[eighsse2]

Fair points about Mostert's age. I think he's a JAG despite his extremely good numbers. But 2022-2023 he had a combined 450 touches. Though each year is further separation from his prime, that isn't exactly ancient history. Just saying, don't be blown away if Jeanty gets <70% of RB touches.

I think 2-3 years ago is ancient history when talking about a 33 year old RB.

When a 32 year old RB has a sucky season it's usually because they've hit the wall. How many RBs have a terrible season at age 32 and then end up bouncing back? I'm sure it's happened but 99% of the time a RB sucks at age 32 it's because they're donezo.

That's true. Mostert is already a weird case, for whatever that's worth. But teams just don't usually give a massive share to one back, even if the backups are scrubs.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Fair points about Mostert's age. I think he's a JAG despite his extremely good numbers. But 2022-2023 he had a combined 450 touches. Though each year is further separation from his prime, that isn't exactly ancient history. Just saying, don't be blown away if Jeanty gets <70% of RB touches.

I think 2-3 years ago is ancient history when talking about a 33 year old RB.

When a 32 year old RB has a sucky season it's usually because they've hit the wall. How many RBs have a terrible season at age 32 and then end up bouncing back? I'm sure it's happened but 99% of the time a RB sucks at age 32 it's because they're donezo.

Mostert does have somewhat low mileage from all the times he’s been injured, so he has that going for him, which is… nice?

For his 10 year career the dude only has 759 career carries & 111 receptions. Heck he’s only actually played in 103 games (39 starts)

Most RB eclipse those numbers in ~3 seasons.