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RB Cam Skattebo, NYG (3 Viewers)

socrates said:
If Skattebo runs a 4.55 forty at his Pro Day, he will maintain his current draft stock.
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That stock seems to have baked in a 4.6 forty time. 4.55 plus the .5 you add on for pro day (at least Player Profiler does that). If he runs 4.65-4.70+, like you say, he tumbles down boards.

Sounds about right and exactly how I have it pegged, too.
 
rockaction said:
socrates said:
If Skattebo runs a 4.55 forty at his Pro Day, he will maintain his current draft stock.
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That stock seems to have baked in a 4.6 forty time. 4.55 plus the .5 you add on for pro day (at least Player Profiler does that). If he runs 4.65-4.70+, like you say, he tumbles down boards.

Sounds about right and exactly how I have it pegged, too.
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‘Better to be thought slow than to run and remove all doubt’
 
So, "Stepfan Burkhead" is the comp?Pardon me while I do the opposite of swoon.

Hopefully Cam got that degree in Marketing or Sports Management (or whatever) finished up.
 
I think he will get lower NFL draft capital than people think, but if he falls far enough for me in the second round, or God forbid third round, then I'm in. If he bombs you're not out that much anyway.
 
Dane Brugler
4.65 for Cam Skattebo.

Right around what was expected.
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Josh Norris
James Conner: 4.65 at 233 lbs
Rhamondre Stevenson: 4.64 at 231 lbs
David Montgomery 4.63 at 222 lbs

Cam Skattebo: 4.65 at 220 lbs
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Ryan Heath
Gotta be careful directly comparing Pro Day times to Combine times, though
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Josh Norris
I think adjusting pro day stuff is a bit of a slippery slope
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Ryan Heath
Yeah I just don't include them in any of my modeling stuff personally. Lower certainty, probably skews a bit more positive but hard to say how much with confidence/if it applies in every situation
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Josh Norris
I think across decades its very difficult to know the circumstances for everyone

even the turf changed in Indy a couple of years ago, then it changed again this Combine

then there's the time when the old workouts were vs the recent ones. How that would impact performance

Also - what if they were simply having a down day?

countless points
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So he ran a 4.65 at pro day, huh? Like I figured. 4.7 speed. Not draftable at the beginning of the second of dynasty drafts, IMO. Never was. Nice story that has run its course.
 
Kyren also ran a 4.65. And that was sub-200 lbs. I won’t be reaching for Cam but definitely not taking him off the board either. For a late second seems about right. These guys can produce if they are given opportunities in the right spot.
 
Faust said:
Scott Barrett
Left: All Combine RBs within a half inch of Cam Skattebo's height and 5 pounds of his weight with a Burst Sscore >160

Right: All Combine RBs within a half inch of Cam Skattebo's height and 5 pounds of his weight with a 40 in the 4.6s
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Uh, that's about a 4.7 because he ran on pro day. If you're doing it right, you generally add half a second or at least two or three tenths of a second because it's hand timed at a pro day (other than the Big 12 pro day this time around). So, no, it's not comparable to David Montgomery, whose 4.63 is significantly faster than a 4.70.

These fantasy draftnik guys who are just putting pro day times in there like they're substitutable are doing us a disservice. I know the draftniks don't believe in forty times or think they're exaggerated because forty times don't have much of a correlation with pro success, but there are boundaries to the times and a 4.7 is about the outer limit for a back. In addition, forty times are used in calculating speed score, which is definitely correlated with fantasy success in the pros, so it's important that we get these things right. Skattebo's speed score is 93.2 with the 4.65 (I'm not clicking again to find out the exact speed score but it was ninety-three point something). His percentile ranking is very low considering that his time wasn't adjusted.

This guy is exactly what you see on film. How that translates to the NFL is what we will have to wait for. It's not over for Skattebo like I declared upthread. His pass-catching prowess is a definite mark in his favor, as is the competition he faced and those highlights of him bruising his way through guys. But it's an uphill and outlier climb he has to make. We will see if he's the next Josh Jacobs or Kyren Williams (whose speed score was an 83!) and if he can bring home the mail while being an outlier.
 
oldmanhawkins said:
Kyren also ran a 4.65. And that was sub-200 lbs. I won’t be reaching for Cam but definitely not taking him off the board either. For a late second seems about right. These guys can produce if they are given opportunities in the right spot.
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Kyren is a massive outlier. He and Josh Jacobs are serious outliers when it comes to speed scores and forty times and success in the NFL. It's pretty clear that guys tend to have speed scores over 100 (at the very least) if they want to start and get serious volume in the NFL. Williams is not somebody I'd want my running back compared to if he was going through the draft process. I remember when Williams ran his 4.65. He was instantly written off, and people are shocked LA is using him like they are. Like I just said above, his speed score is comically low at 83 and Jacobs's is around 90. They are the huge exceptions to the standard.
 
rockaction said:
oldmanhawkins said:
Kyren also ran a 4.65. And that was sub-200 lbs. I won’t be reaching for Cam but definitely not taking him off the board either. For a late second seems about right. These guys can produce if they are given opportunities in the right spot.
Click to expand...

Kyren is a massive outlier. He and Josh Jacobs are serious outliers when it comes to speed scores and forty times and success in the NFL. It's pretty clear that guys tend to have speed scores over 100 (at the very least) if they want to start and get serious volume in the NFL. Williams is not somebody I'd want my running back compared to if he was going through the draft process. I remember when Williams ran his 4.65. He was instantly written off, and people are shocked LA is using him like they are. Like I just said above, his speed score is comically low at 83 and Jacobs's is around 90. They are the huge exceptions to the standard.
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Kyren to me is a reminder to me that NFL teams don’t care about your 40 time once you show you can produce on the field. I don’t think 4.65 (or 4.7) means that Cam is any less capable of being a productive NFL back. But, I will agree that it lessons the chance that he’ll get a real opportunity to be an NFL back, if that makes sense.
 
oldmanhawkins said:
But, I will agree that it lessons the chance that he’ll get a real opportunity to be an NFL back, if that makes sense.
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It does. Not only does it affect draft capital, which we know is correlated with volume, but it also alters a front office and coach’s perception and assessment of the player in some way, and that also likely correlates to volume. (I can’t quantify that, but the assessment of an RB’s talents almost necessarily affects the volume given to the RB. What else would be more important than that?)
 
I care about his 40 time in how it effects his draft stock; so I won't bother debating combine vs. pro day times because both sides make compelling, sound arguments.

If Cam gets drafted day 2, I'll be targeting him between rookie picks ~10-16 depending on landing spot and when exactly he goes day 2. I still see an MJD/slower CMC as a ceiling, and in a PPR league that's something I'll always move ahead of RBs who can't catch/only catch dump offs. Other than lacking "speed", the most common criticism I hear on him is "he's hard to project/there aren't other guys used like him in the NFL outside D. Henry". That's an incredibly weak criticism to me, and doesn't really move my needle at all.

If he goes day 3 or later, he'll definitely be dropping down about a round+ for me. In general, the hit rates on RBs drafted in the 4th round and later are just abysmal, as much as I love Cam, at that point I do believe the odds will be stacked against him becoming a fantasy contributor worthy of a late 1st/early 2nd round pick.

TLDR, gonna let the NFL do the work for me on this one. But if he does get day 2 capital, I'm remaining high on a 3 down, pass catching, goal line punching, unreal contact balance, top of the class tackle breaking ability, unlimited effort/coaches favorite guy. Those are some of the most important RB check boxes for me, and he ticks them all. It also just gives him multiple ways of paying the bills in fantasy. Even in a committee he could easily be the David Montgomery putting in 12+ TDs with his 78% success rate on 3rd and short plays, 94.1 PFF grade on plays 3 yards or less (top in the class over the past two years), 23 TDs (also top in the class). It would still get you a low end RB1 in fantasy, despite a team being dumb and not taking advantage of his pass catching skills which are also at the top of this class.
 
pinkstapler said:
I care about his 40 time in how it effects his draft stock; so I won't bother debating combine vs. pro day times because both sides make compelling, sound arguments.

If Cam gets drafted day 2, I'll be targeting him between rookie picks ~10-16 depending on landing spot and when exactly he goes day 2. I still see an MJD/slower CMC as a ceiling, and in a PPR league that's something I'll always move ahead of RBs who can't catch/only catch dump offs. Other than lacking "speed", the most common criticism I hear on him is "he's hard to project/there aren't other guys used like him in the NFL outside D. Henry". That's an incredibly weak criticism to me, and doesn't really move my needle at all.

If he goes day 3 or later, he'll definitely be dropping down about a round+ for me. In general, the hit rates on RBs drafted in the 4th round and later are just abysmal, as much as I love Cam, at that point I do believe the odds will be stacked against him becoming a fantasy contributor worthy of a late 1st/early 2nd round pick.

TLDR, gonna let the NFL do the work for me on this one. But if he does get day 2 capital, I'm remaining high on a 3 down, pass catching, goal line punching, unreal contact balance, top of the class tackle breaking ability, unlimited effort/coaches favorite guy. Those are some of the most important RB check boxes for me, and he ticks them all. It also just gives him multiple ways of paying the bills in fantasy. Even in a committee he could easily be the David Montgomery putting in 12+ TDs with his 78% success rate on 3rd and short plays, 94.1 PFF grade on plays 3 yards or less (top in the class over the past two years), 23 TDs (also top in the class). It would still get you a low end RB1 in fantasy, despite a team being dumb and not taking advantage of his pass catching skills which are also at the top of this class.
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This is precisely where I am with Skattebo. The NFL Draft will determine his ranking, but of course, the same applies to most Dynasty prospects.

(FTR: I am currently ranking Skattebo as though he is going to be a Day 2 pick.)
 
40 yard dash time is one data point. Nobody was drafting Skattebo to be their speed back. HoF RB Jerome Bettis ran a 4.7 40 as well.

It's certainly not ideal to come into the league with that number but literally nobody will care if he produces with pads on. Now the question of if it will limit his opportunity is a fair one, but cream rises. If he fails in the NFL it will be because he just wasn't good enough, not because he ran a tenth of a second slower in pajamas than we would have liked.
 
Yeah no idea about any of these guys. I took him in my first big redraft tourney, the Big Gorilla on FFPC, just because I had loosely heard a couple positive things and didn't like the board too much otherwise. This just a couple nights ago and I took him as rookie RB6 at 10.09 and overall RB38. Harvey and Tuten came off the board before I was back OTC at 11.04 but I might prefer Tuten today. It was a pretty blind dart throw for me, I knew the rookie RBs were going to be coming off in bulk in that range. 5 more rookie backs came off before the 14th round. So anyway just documenting not really more than a dart throw like I said.
 
brewer said:
40 yard dash time is one data point. Nobody was drafting Skattebo to be their speed back. HoF RB Jerome Bettis ran a 4.7 40 as well.

It's certainly not ideal to come into the league with that number but literally nobody will care if he produces with pads on. Now the question of if it will limit his opportunity is a fair one, but cream rises. If he fails in the NFL it will be because he just wasn't good enough, not because he ran a tenth of a second slower in pajamas than we would have liked.
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I absolutely agree with your point about Skattebo . . . however, you lost me a little with the Bettis reference. Bettis tipped the scales over 250. Still, point taken.
 
socrates said:
brewer said:
40 yard dash time is one data point. Nobody was drafting Skattebo to be their speed back. HoF RB Jerome Bettis ran a 4.7 40 as well.

It's certainly not ideal to come into the league with that number but literally nobody will care if he produces with pads on. Now the question of if it will limit his opportunity is a fair one, but cream rises. If he fails in the NFL it will be because he just wasn't good enough, not because he ran a tenth of a second slower in pajamas than we would have liked.
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I absolutely agree with your point about Skattebo . . . however, you lost me a little with the Bettis reference. Bettis tipped the scales over 250. Still, point taken.
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yah that's fair, oddly enough though, Bettis was a 250 pounder that wanted to avoid tacklers, Skattebo is a 215 pounder who wants to run people over.

Probably should have gone with the more popular comp of James Conner and his 4.65.
 
The thing about Skattebo that I think people are losing track of is while his long speed is bad, he's not slow. He gets outside frequently. He has good burst. He just doesn't run away from people.

Personally, if I were a GM who needs a RB, I want Ashton Jeanty, and if he's not there, I wait until round 3 for Skattebo or Sampson.
 
travdogg said:
The thing about Skattebo that I think people are losing track of is while his long speed is bad, he's not slow. He gets outside frequently. He has good burst. He just doesn't run away from people.

Personally, if I were a GM who needs a RB, I want Ashton Jeanty, and if he's not there, I wait until round 3 for Skattebo or Sampson.
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One thing I've heard Waldmann and other scouts/analysts tout, especially in recent years; long speed is one of the most overrated traits for a RB. With the way defenses are schemed and the speed/strength/agility of the players and how it's multiplied over the past 20 years especially at a position like linebacker; you could probably count on one hand the number of times a season a RB even has the opportunity to utilize their long speed for breakaways 50+ yards that could go to the house. And that's a RB getting a ~225 touch season. If they have the burst and explosion to flip the field, that's more than enough to be a top end every down back. Skattebo has that IMO.

Also, most RBs who DO have that long speed endurance to take it to the house on every play lack in another area; typically power/broken tackles/contact balance. The ones who possess it all are truly generational and few and far between. Jeanty comes the closest in this class. I'd say there were none between Barkley and Bijan people would mostly all agree on.
 
Long speed was never going to be Skattebo's calling card. Do I wish he had run a 4.55? Absolutely. Do I wish that he had weighed in at 230? Probably, given his play style. However, Skattebo is a brute, make no mistake about that. His jumps at the Combie speak to Skattebo's explosiveness. He is not Marshawn Lynch, but he has some Lynch-like qualities. He is a compact thumper who will contribute in the passing game.
 
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pinkstapler said:
travdogg said:
The thing about Skattebo that I think people are losing track of is while his long speed is bad, he's not slow. He gets outside frequently. He has good burst. He just doesn't run away from people.

Personally, if I were a GM who needs a RB, I want Ashton Jeanty, and if he's not there, I wait until round 3 for Skattebo or Sampson.
Click to expand...
One thing I've heard Waldmann and other scouts/analysts tout, especially in recent years; long speed is one of the most overrated traits for a RB. With the way defenses are schemed and the speed/strength/agility of the players and how it's multiplied over the past 20 years especially at a position like linebacker; you could probably count on one hand the number of times a season a RB even has the opportunity to utilize their long speed for breakaways 50+ yards that could go to the house. And that's a RB getting a ~225 touch season. If they have the burst and explosion to flip the field, that's more than enough to be a top end every down back. Skattebo has that IMO.

Also, most RBs who DO have that long speed endurance to take it to the house on every play lack in another area; typically power/broken tackles/contact balance. The ones who possess it all are truly generational and few and far between. Jeanty comes the closest in this class. I'd say there were none between Barkley and Bijan people would mostly all agree on.
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Nick Chubb certainly did
 
socrates said:
Long speed was never going to be Skattebo's calling card. Do I wish he had run a 4.55? Absolutely. Do I wish that he had weighed in at 230? Probably, given his play style. However, Skattebo is a brute, make no mistake about that. His jumps at the Combie speak to Skattebo's explosiveness. He is not Marshawn Lynch, but he has some Lynch-like qualities. He is a compact thumper who will contribute in the passing game.
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I’ve been calling this guy White Marshawn in my head for a good while now. Not saying i think he’ll be as good, of course
 
travdogg said:
pinkstapler said:
travdogg said:
The thing about Skattebo that I think people are losing track of is while his long speed is bad, he's not slow. He gets outside frequently. He has good burst. He just doesn't run away from people.

Personally, if I were a GM who needs a RB, I want Ashton Jeanty, and if he's not there, I wait until round 3 for Skattebo or Sampson.
Click to expand...
One thing I've heard Waldmann and other scouts/analysts tout, especially in recent years; long speed is one of the most overrated traits for a RB. With the way defenses are schemed and the speed/strength/agility of the players and how it's multiplied over the past 20 years especially at a position like linebacker; you could probably count on one hand the number of times a season a RB even has the opportunity to utilize their long speed for breakaways 50+ yards that could go to the house. And that's a RB getting a ~225 touch season. If they have the burst and explosion to flip the field, that's more than enough to be a top end every down back. Skattebo has that IMO.

Also, most RBs who DO have that long speed endurance to take it to the house on every play lack in another area; typically power/broken tackles/contact balance. The ones who possess it all are truly generational and few and far between. Jeanty comes the closest in this class. I'd say there were none between Barkley and Bijan people would mostly all agree on.
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Nick Chubb certainly did
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I could have been more clear here, but I meant as a prospect. And as a prospect he wasn't viewed as elite or having a full tool kit/can do it all. He never fully came back from his knee injury in college and a lot of people questioned his explosiveness and vision. Obviously in hindsight, they were wrong. He not only returned to the highs he hit in college, but exceeded them in the NFL. But Chubb was not viewed as an elite prospect by consensus coming into the league. This included fantasy players; his ADP in rookie drafts was typically behind not only Barkley, but also Darrius Guice, Rashaad Penny, and Sony Michel. I think a lot of places even had Ronald Jones ahead of him by late August.

Also woof... looking back at that draft class now, just about every RB was a major swing and a miss. Going after Chubb, but still typically in the first round of fantasy drafts, Royce Freeman and Kerryon Johnson... I feel like I'm jinxing this class even looking at this right now haha.
 
greenmountaingoat said:
Picked by the NY Giants in the 4th round, overall pick no 104

I see him being the lead back with Tracy being the 1B. Thoughts?
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I agree. Tracy was good, but nothing special. He's not established as the starter so there's an opportunity for Skattebo to be the 1A in a RBBC. I read Tracy was working hard over the offseason, so he's not going to let touches go without tough competition. From a NYG perspective, I like this pick. From a fantasy perspective, it makes this team kind of a murky situation. It's hard to say at this time how the touches will be distributed, but Tracy is going to have to earn it just like Skattebo.
 
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