King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Chase Brown will be one of the more speculative plays this year come draft time. Second post down shows how he has improved in his route running.
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RB Chase Brown, CIN (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think he’s a high floor FF target this year for sure. His receiving is going to make him a PPR asset, and anything he does on the ground will be a bonus.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
rostership:
UD Weekly Winners - 1st 52% (16/31)
UD SuperFlex post NFL Draft - 5th 33% (3/12)
UD post NFL Draft - 6th 27% (10/37)
UD pre NFL Draft - 6th 23% (7/31)
UD total - 32% 36/111
not bad
FFPC Fantasy Pros Championship - 3/9
FFPC Never Too Early BB - 1/4
FFPC SF BB - 0/4
24% 4/17
TOTAL 31% 40/128
UD Weekly Winners - 1st 52% (16/31)
UD SuperFlex post NFL Draft - 5th 33% (3/12)
UD post NFL Draft - 6th 27% (10/37)
UD pre NFL Draft - 6th 23% (7/31)
UD total - 32% 36/111
not bad
FFPC Fantasy Pros Championship - 3/9
FFPC Never Too Early BB - 1/4
FFPC SF BB - 0/4
24% 4/17
TOTAL 31% 40/128
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
With the improvement in the receiving game which he worked on all off-season and ripping off big runs in camp (Another long run) he may be a high riser come draft day. LT Orlando Brown is high on him (Clear Orlando Never Heard of ADP)…“If I could play fantasy football, I’d take (Chase Brown) as my first running back,” Orlando Brown said. One of the guys I am most excited to see develop this year, and has a great opportunity if he can capture it with the current depth chart.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’ve managed acquire 2 shares very reasonably.
The 3rd attempt, made this week, did not go well at all, and it was my highest offer. The hype is definitely building.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
5-6 is my guess. Dead zone RB, but I’m bullish.
Uhhh... what?
His current ADP is round 10. Even in FFPC, it's late round 9, early round 10.
If you want him, go snag him super early in the 7th or 8th and it would be no issue.
5th-6th is silly.
#GabeDavis2.0
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Might start creeping into the 4th.x.com
x.com
barackdhouse
Footballguy
In over 200 FFPC best ball drafts in July, he has gone no earlier than 8.03 and has an ADP of 10.03 as RB35. Have been grabbing him everywhere all offseason because I keep expecting his ADP to rise but it hasn't. He *should* be getting into the 4th/5th but not yet that I've seen.Might start creeping into the 4th.x.com
Through 25 of the same drafts in August over the last two days his ADP has crept up to RB28 9.03 but still no earlier than 8.03.
Now, best ball is different because people are going to load up a lil more at QB and push the board down a skosh.
But in the FPC redraft tourney in August with nearly 200 drafts booked...
his ADP is at RB36 9.09 and his earliest pick was 6.05.
FantasyPros lists him as RB36 or around 10.03 by ADP sourced from BB10s, RTSports, UnderDog and one other I didn't recognize but their numbers are all super similar.
So this creep is not something I've seen yet and I've been waiting for it all offseason and it just hasn't happened yet. Still early I guess. But I was shocked when the first ADP numbers post SuperBowl favored Moss. In my head I thought that outside of FA or the draft Chase was the clear 1A. After surviving both those periods I thought it was a lock. And yet ADP still has barely budged and it looks like he has been going *several* rounds late for months. It's hard for me not to keep pulling the trigger.
Yeah, I'm all about guys like Jamo and Brown and the hype, but it's getting a bit out of control when people are talking about taking these players in the 3rd-5th rounds.In over 200 FFPC best ball drafts in July, he has gone no earlier than 8.03 and has an ADP of 10.03 as RB35. Have been grabbing him everywhere all offseason because I keep expecting his ADP to rise but it hasn't. He *should* be getting into the 4th/5th but not yet that I've seen.Might start creeping into the 4th.x.com
Through 25 of the same drafts in August over the last two days his ADP has crept up to RB28 9.03 but still no earlier than 8.03.
Now, best ball is different because people are going to load up a lil more at QB and push the board down a skosh.
But in the FPC redraft tourney in August with nearly 200 drafts booked...
his ADP is at RB36 9.09 and his earliest pick was 6.05.
FantasyPros lists him as RB36 or around 10.03 by ADP sourced from BB10s, RTSports, UnderDog and one other I didn't recognize but their numbers are all super similar.
So this creep is not something I've seen yet and I've been waiting for it all offseason and it just hasn't happened yet. Still early I guess. But I was shocked when the first ADP numbers post SuperBowl favored Moss. In my head I thought that outside of FA or the draft Chase was the clear 1A. After surviving both those periods I thought it was a lock. And yet ADP still has barely budged and it looks like he has been going *several* rounds late for months. It's hard for me not to keep pulling the trigger.
For what it's worth, here's where he is RANKED in the newest rankings from the following sites:
FBG: 105th (mid 9th round)
FantasyPros 112th (mid 10th round)
Underdog 108th (10th round)
Yes he will rise up drafts, but we're heading for another Gabe thread/situation if people are talking about taking him in rounds 3-5. He's worth the reach now in rounds 8/9. He might be worth the reach come September in round 6/7. You lose all value when you start talking about taking these Jamo/C.Brown guys in the top 50 overall picks.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Preseason doesn't move draft stock like it used to, but it's this category of player (2nd year breakout potential in newly created role) that winds up sticking out like a sore thumb and IMO doesn't take much to get him into overvalued territory.
I'll use the example of Javonte Williams. 2nd round pedigree guy. Bad knee injury essentially destroyed Year 2/3 but seems poised to lead DEN backfield with solid OL and QB whose pass production won't be prolific. Competing with 5th round rookie and scat back for snaps/production.
Is Brown a better bet than him? I'm not saying one way or the other, but drawing that line now specifically is probably something you should do now (whereever that may be) before the next 2-3 weeks happens and potential hype starts to shoot up his draft stock.
sheerterror
Footballguy
What was your offer?
I saw you pulled him for QJ previously(nice job) and as a Brown owner remember thinking that if it was me, that offer would have gotten you a nonresponse.
cheese
Footballguy
Everyone is entering drafts wanting this guy right now. It's going to be an interesting balance to try to strike first, but also not pick a r10 player in r7.Yeah, I'm all about guys like Jamo and Brown and the hype, but it's getting a bit out of control when people are talking about taking these players in the 3rd-5th rounds.In over 200 FFPC best ball drafts in July, he has gone no earlier than 8.03 and has an ADP of 10.03 as RB35. Have been grabbing him everywhere all offseason because I keep expecting his ADP to rise but it hasn't. He *should* be getting into the 4th/5th but not yet that I've seen.Might start creeping into the 4th.x.com
Through 25 of the same drafts in August over the last two days his ADP has crept up to RB28 9.03 but still no earlier than 8.03.
Now, best ball is different because people are going to load up a lil more at QB and push the board down a skosh.
But in the FPC redraft tourney in August with nearly 200 drafts booked...
his ADP is at RB36 9.09 and his earliest pick was 6.05.
FantasyPros lists him as RB36 or around 10.03 by ADP sourced from BB10s, RTSports, UnderDog and one other I didn't recognize but their numbers are all super similar.
So this creep is not something I've seen yet and I've been waiting for it all offseason and it just hasn't happened yet. Still early I guess. But I was shocked when the first ADP numbers post SuperBowl favored Moss. In my head I thought that outside of FA or the draft Chase was the clear 1A. After surviving both those periods I thought it was a lock. And yet ADP still has barely budged and it looks like he has been going *several* rounds late for months. It's hard for me not to keep pulling the trigger.
For what it's worth, here's where he is RANKED in the newest rankings from the following sites:
FBG: 105th (mid 9th round)
FantasyPros 112th (mid 10th round)
Underdog 108th (10th round)
Yes he will rise up drafts, but we're heading for another Gabe thread/situation if people are talking about taking him in rounds 3-5. He's worth the reach now in rounds 8/9. He might be worth the reach come September in round 6/7. You lose all value when you start talking about taking these Jamo/C.Brown guys in the top 50 overall picks.
cheese
Footballguy
Even if the quote doesn't mean anything else, it probably means you can't pick Moss ahead of Brown anymore.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Interesting - yeah, I haven’t seen any redraft info yet. I just figured he’d logically be a 4th round type player.
In my home redraft league there’s another manager who’s as high on him as I am, so if I want him I’ll need to pull the trigger at least a full round early.
What that will look like on August 31 is likely very different than what it looks like today, especially if more positive reports come out about CB
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
QJ + a 2026 4th IIRC, but yeah.
My other share was obtained with Brissett + a 2026 2nd to the Maye shareholder.
The 3rd try was a 2025 3rd & 2026 2nd to a rebuilding team. In rejection he wrote back “I’ve been reading his updates too. Exciting, right?”
That’s a dude I know, and it’s hard not to respect the sarcasm.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
*marked himself safe from taking Chase Brown in the 4th round*
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I actually didn’t know what his ADP is - I was just saying in response to “5th” that with more positive news he might creep up higher.
I’m thrilled to learn it’s 9th round. Maybe by the end of the month it’s 7th.
If enough positive articles are written about him, he might creep too high for my tastes in redraft.
It’s going to be some form of RBBC. Chase should be the more valuable piece, but I don’t see feature back usage.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yes and if he pans out then in my best ball tourney portfolio I would have very strong leverage against the managers who are taking him at that more expensive cost. I thought for sure by now the community would have been all over him much sooner. Am curious to see how high he does rise because it could be pretty dramatic.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
yeah I mean that's the thing is that your first instinct was to think of him as a 5th/4th round player and that might be about right honestly in terms of where he ought to be going. I don't think it ever made sense for the market to think of Moss as the lead back here and I just think Chase has been one of the ultimate steals of the offseason. Weird thing is I feel like there are quite a few amazing deals in redrafts this year and they can't all hit. No matter how strange the season goes there are still only going to be twelve RB1s, twelve WR1s, etc... but I still don't know how much room there is for the market to bump his ADP. Some folks will take him 5th but I bet his ADP settles at around mid 6th. Just guessing.
Ya I'm going to reach on him this week and snag him in round 8-9 or so in as many drafts as I can.
-jb-
Footballguy
semi off-topic but would like to see your list of amazing deals...i try to enter the draft with at least three to target, and am just beginning that process of determining who they are this year. will be a good thread, but needs a few weeks to simmer.
sheerterror
Footballguy
I wouldn't have taken it either, but it's not a disrespectful offer. Maybe 2 2's, but shareholders really have no reason not to wait and see unless they're blown away before the season starts.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
A week earlier and he would have accepted it.
Just shows what 1 news cycle does for one’s confirmation bias.
But it was indeed better than either of my two other successful offers. That was my point.
The buy-low window creaks slightly more closed with every positive update. I know whenever I get an offer for a player the 1st thing I do is google them to see what news may have broken.
Timing is everything. I’m thrilled to have him on 2/3 teams. The other one I’m fairly stacked at RB with Hall, RS, Conner, TyChandler, & Warren, but it never hurts to get more RB.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
FBG / @Joe Bryant newsletter just hit on this subject.
Moss had a supernatural 4 game stretch that’s skewing his JAG-ness way out of proportion on a small sample size.
Looking at their athletic profiles it’s remarkable that anyone would be high on Moss other than based on that relatively insignificant sample.
I was already high on Brown & the FBG deep dive on Moss did absolutely nothing but support my believe that he’s going to be the back to own in CIN.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Moss get a flex-worthy FF role with 35-40% of the touches. But Brown is more explosive, a better receiver, and is the incumbent.
It’ll likely be RBBC, but it sure seems like the better value is also the back being taken 2nd.
Depth charts on August 5th are fairly meaningless, but I hope they continue to list Moss 1st all month.
wickster33
Footballguy
Isn’t the real question about Chase his pass blocking? When the strength of your offense is the passing game, the first priority has to be keeping Burrow upright.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Not in college it wasn’t. His season grades for passing-blocking were 81, 67.6, 54.0, and 65.3. His last season in college with a grade of 65.3 would have placed him 29th out of 135 qualified RBs. He allowed 4 pressures, 2 hurries, 1 hit, and 1 sack in over 107 pass-blocking attempts.
Another site had -
Chase Brown received high pass-blocking grades at Illinois
One reason they may have selected Brown is his overall score when it comes to pass blocking. There were 18 running backs drafted this year, and Brown was graded as the second best of them at pass blocking, per PFF.The only running back that was graded higher was Texas running back Roschon Johnson, who was selected in the fourth round before the Bengals selected Brown.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Reports have been increasingly positive regarding the work Brown has put in to his passing game, including pass pro.
Moss isn’t exactly awesome at pass pro himself, so…
barackdhouse
Footballguy
well I think there are quite a few WR1s (for their respective NFL teams that is) in those mid rounds, as well as a lot of good RBs such that zero-RB is probably yet another good recipe right now. Guys like Chase Brown, Ford, Brian Robinson, Spears, Mostert, Charbs and then still more names I also like in the double digit rounds. I prefer mostly WR in this whole area that Brown is going in but it depends on buid construction and so forth. I wish I could trade back in redraft and just get like all 7th-10th round picks.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
Zach Moss got himself a 60.4 pass blocking score last year. Chase Brown didn’t get graded because he didn’t have enough snaps - which means they didn’t trust him there.
Of course he can improve on that part of his game. But I tend to follow the money when it comes to these 50/50 middling RB situations.
Joe Mixon only garnered a 29.7 score, for what we that’s worth.
It’s obvious the Bengals brought Moss in for a specific role. Sure, Chase is the more explosive RB. But if he can’t protect Burrow? He will only be a package player - add in the possibility of Moss being the better GL back - still leads me to buy Moss at what seems to be a daily growing discount.
Ray Barboni
Footballguy
I don’t know … I think it varies depending on the QB?
Sure, I’m not saying that if Chase can’t pass pro, he won’t see the field - just saying that his time ON the field may be limited to more run first, or designed plays.
I think both Cincy backs are valuable. I’ll take the lower ADP version, whomever it is.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Except Moss isn’t a good receiver, so that sort of flies in the face of the notion that Moss will be out there on passing downs.
Moss is a JAG. He’s not an athletic player, and if the Bengals need someone to chip in on passing downs they have a couple of good blocking TEs.
I’m not buying Moss as a lead back for a second.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
At this point it seems clear that nobody knows what’s going to happen. That’s the best reason to draft either one. If the Bengals go off, which we all know is possible, there’s a possibility that one of these guys is a guy that makes a bigger impact than adp.
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
And if you draft Moss and the usage stinks, cut bait and work the wire
Banger
Footballguy
this reminds me of a lot of similar 1B situations over the past few years. Pollard, Stevenson from a couple years ago, Warren last year. I loaded up on them and will be loading Brown as long as his ADP doesn’t sky rocket. If you’re wrong, you didn’t pay much and can move on without an impact to your roster.
Chaka
Footballguy
Oh, it wasn't really a specific response to your comment yours was just the most recent one so I responded to it.
I have seen that mentioned many times in this thread and others and I am virtually certain it was pretty thoroughly debunked. Maybe I'll start a thread on the topic.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Right now somehow that’s still Chase.
I don’t know if you saw the graphic in the FBG email, but I was shocked by the disparity in physical talent between the two. Brown with a 9.8 RAS score and Moss with a 3.16
That’s a lot.
Also, per Dave Kluge
IMO if they’re even close in pass pro, the more explosive back will see the majority of touches.
As for GL, I could see Moss used more in short yardage, but the Bengals also run stretch plays & sweeps, so… yeah. TBD.
I don’t know who’s gonna come away with the larger share of the pie - I’ve said a few times I expect 60-40. Both backs should be decent value. I placed a couple bets on Chase because he was available with prospective trade partners & I like him.
I’m not necessarily betting *against* Moss, but more hesitant to bet on him.
He did not get enough snaps because he had two separate hamstring injuries and on top of missing actual game he also missed a ton of practice.
He only played 93 snaps the entire year. That's basically on par with like a game and a half to two games at most.
Two things I say about this, which I've heard about thousand times this off-season as a reason that Moss is the guy.
First. See above, he played 93 snaps. 44 carries. That's hardly much of a sample size to take much stock in.
Secondly, it makes me question the entire validity of that stat. Granted all stats have flaws, including YPC, but he averaged 4.1 yards per carry and was dead last on expected? What was he supposed to do to be just average?
FWIW in FFPC drafts in the past week Chase has pulled ahead of Moss. My last two drafts Brown went about a round ahead of Moss.
And correct on depth charts. Some teams take them a little seriously, some teams have interns fill them out. Not much stock should be taken with them.
I never thought so but to be fair in one of those Hard Knocks episodes the Giants pro personnel director cited that as a strength of his when they were discussing FA RB targets.
Chase on that subject got praised today by Taylor, as someone mentioned graded out great in pass pro his last year in college.
I'll just say I've think it's going to be a RBBC but I've always preferred Brown. For me it mainly just boiled down looking at the narratives.
For the past two off-season's I've been reading multiple Bengals beat writers who say keep saying what the team badly wants is more explosion from their RB's, more big play ability. It's why they made Mixon take a pay cut in 23 and why they were going to cut him this off-season and I don't think offered him a pay cut this time. In other words, it was not really over money.
Obviously Brown is light years ahead of Moss with respect to big play ability.
The Bengals no doubt view themsleves as SB contender and needing to capitalize on likely last year of Tee and before Chase gets expensive. With that in mind, and knowing they were going to get rid of Mixon one way or the other they completely passed any interest in the upper tier RB's. Moss got a contract pretty much on par with Antonio Gibson's. They are not as cheap as people always say they are just are selective with their money. They have cap space, enough to get into the market for any FA RB this past off-season. Instead in a win now mode they went the discount route. They to me is a sign of feeling like they had their guy in-house and just needed to get him some help and a steady Eddie guy like Moss made sense.
Moss was really good in a limited stretch last year but how can people act like the other years did not happen? He was a JAG, he's the same guy the Bills had to kick in a pick along with to get Nyhiem Hines when they traded him away.
For the past two off-season's I've been reading multiple Bengals beat writers who say keep saying what the team badly wants is more explosion from their RB's, more big play ability. It's why they made Mixon take a pay cut in 23 and why they were going to cut him this off-season and I don't think offered him a pay cut this time. In other words, it was not really over money.
Obviously Brown is light years ahead of Moss with respect to big play ability.
The Bengals no doubt view themsleves as SB contender and needing to capitalize on likely last year of Tee and before Chase gets expensive. With that in mind, and knowing they were going to get rid of Mixon one way or the other they completely passed any interest in the upper tier RB's. Moss got a contract pretty much on par with Antonio Gibson's. They are not as cheap as people always say they are just are selective with their money. They have cap space, enough to get into the market for any FA RB this past off-season. Instead in a win now mode they went the discount route. They to me is a sign of feeling like they had their guy in-house and just needed to get him some help and a steady Eddie guy like Moss made sense.
Moss was really good in a limited stretch last year but how can people act like the other years did not happen? He was a JAG, he's the same guy the Bills had to kick in a pick along with to get Nyhiem Hines when they traded him away.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agreed totally.
And Moss’ 4-game stretch was historic - no doubt, dude played like his head was on fire.
But like you said - that stretch also stands out against the rest of his career as anomalous.
I don't think it’s smart FF management to buy into outlier stretches of production for an otherwise career JAG.
Certainly possible that competition does Moss good, and he comes out and performs well enough to silence us doubters.
But i agree that the Bengals did nothing this offseason but tell me Brown is their guy. Committee, sure. But IMO Brown’s FF value will make him the back to roster.
