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RB Chase Brown, CIN (1 Viewer)

I would be buying low, he's about the surest thing to a bell cow you get in today's NFL.

The offense can't get any worse can it?

Better days ahead

I don't know. Tahj Brooks is probably looming right over his shoulder right about now. Chase doesn't look good. I watched enough of today's and the the first two games to wonder what's wrong with him.
Chase and Jeanty are the only two rb's averaging negative yards before first contact. Predictable play calling isn't helping either- if it's first down then they're probably running it, and going nowhere fast, putting their backup QB in position to do something bad on 3rd & long cause he's not Joe Burrow.
 
I would be buying low, he's about the surest thing to a bell cow you get in today's NFL.

The offense can't get any worse can it?

Better days ahead

I don't know. Tahj Brooks is probably looming right over his shoulder right about now. Chase doesn't look good. I watched enough of today's and the the first two games to wonder what's wrong with him.
Chase and Jeanty are the only two rb's averaging negative yards before first contact. Predictable play calling isn't helping either- if it's first down then they're probably running it, and going nowhere fast, putting their backup QB in position to do something bad on 3rd & long cause he's not Joe Burrow.

Yup. I said it either upthread or in Jeanty's thread. They have negative yards before contact.
 
I would be buying low, he's about the surest thing to a bell cow you get in today's NFL.

The offense can't get any worse can it?

Better days ahead

I don't know. Tahj Brooks is probably looming right over his shoulder right about now. Chase doesn't look good. I watched enough of today's and the the first two games to wonder what's wrong with him.
Chase and Jeanty are the only two rb's averaging negative yards before first contact. Predictable play calling isn't helping either- if it's first down then they're probably running it, and going nowhere fast, putting their backup QB in position to do something bad on 3rd & long cause he's not Joe Burrow.

Here you go.

 
But yeah, here's something to rebut that. It did not look good today in the moments that I saw.

"Stat to know: Bengals running back Chase Brown continued his rough start to the season. Brown had minus-22 rushing yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That means Brown did not get nearly as many yards as he should have on his 10 carries, which didn't help the Bengals' rough offensive performance. He finished with 3 yards total." -- Ben Baby, ESPN
 
But yeah, here's something to rebut that. It did not look good today in the moments that I saw.

"Stat to know: Bengals running back Chase Brown continued his rough start to the season. Brown had minus-22 rushing yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That means Brown did not get nearly as many yards as he should have on his 10 carries, which didn't help the Bengals' rough offensive performance. He finished with 3 yards total." -- Ben Baby, ESPN
It’s still bad if the total rushing yards would’ve been 10 carries for 25 yards. He just hit rock bottom today with all of the metrics it seems.
 
I don't even know what to say about CB. The OL is a disaster, obviously the QB downgrade is enormous but most of all his usage in the passing game makes no sense to me. Dude is a high-end receiving RB and he isn't getting nearly the looks he did last year. You'd think for a QB as bad as Browning is, that you'd want to feature more easy dump offs and screens to your dynamic RB. Especially when the OL is so brutal.
 
I don't even know what to say about CB. The OL is a disaster, obviously the QB downgrade is enormous but most of all his usage in the passing game makes no sense to me. Dude is a high-end receiving RB and he isn't getting nearly the looks he did last year. You'd think for a QB as bad as Browning is, that you'd want to feature more easy dump offs and screens to your dynamic RB. Especially when the OL is so brutal.
My question is honestly is Brown actually a dynamic RB, or is he just a guy who was the RB on a team with the best QB/WR/WR set in football at the end of last year? I'm just worried this is a case of a guy who ran against teams willing to give up on the run to try and stop Burrow/Chase/Higgins, and now without Burrow, the focus on Brown is highlighting what he's always been...

I'm an owner who was super excited to get him, but I'm looking to offload him for what I can get honestly.
 
I don't even know what to say about CB. The OL is a disaster, obviously the QB downgrade is enormous but most of all his usage in the passing game makes no sense to me. Dude is a high-end receiving RB and he isn't getting nearly the looks he did last year. You'd think for a QB as bad as Browning is, that you'd want to feature more easy dump offs and screens to your dynamic RB. Especially when the OL is so brutal.
Yep. He's going to my bench for now.
 
This is an interesting case study. I always like to look in hindsight at what experts say about players and in this case, I can't think of one highly touted expert who was bearish about Chase Brown. So far, it looks like they were all wrong here.

The arguments in favor were volume and the great offense. No real concern about their horrible offensive line though.
 
This is an interesting case study. I always like to look in hindsight at what experts say about players and in this case, I can't think of one highly touted expert who was bearish about Chase Brown. So far, it looks like they were all wrong here.

The arguments in favor were volume and the great offense. No real concern about their horrible offensive line though.
Dude's YPC is less than half of what it was in 2024. Also he caught 54 balls while really only taking over like halfway.

The fact the run game is so awful, yet they don't try and get him balls another way is super surprising.
 
This is an interesting case study. I always like to look in hindsight at what experts say about players and in this case, I can't think of one highly touted expert who was bearish about Chase Brown. So far, it looks like they were all wrong here.

The arguments in favor were volume and the great offense. No real concern about their horrible offensive line though.
Dude's YPC is less than half of what it was in 2024. Also he caught 54 balls while really only taking over like halfway.

The fact the run game is so awful, yet they don't try and get him balls another way is super surprising.

It occurs to me that they made such a big deal about "starting fast" early this year that it actually proves an opposite point...that CIN is resistant to change...likely reflective of an ownership bias....and this resistance is precisely why the bengals never get anywhere. change that has been historically resisted: investing in O line, committing to the run, paying defensive players, etc. brown is such an obvious candidate to function as a bell cow and yet CIN manages to F that up. it's embarassing really.
 
Dude is a high-end receiving RB
I keep hearing this. Not sure the evidence backs that up.
He had 40 catches in the second half of the season last year.
I know. Does that make him "great" or "high-end"? He averaged 6.7 y/r, that doesn't seem particularly high-end or great.

It's fantasy relevant but, I'm not sure he's a high-end receiver IRL.
I think the barrier for entry for a rb is opportunity and the ability to do it.

Jordan Mason is a solid runner, and he was in offense that seemed to favor featuring that and couldn't execute it.

That YPC is in line with what Saquan did with the giants, in a similar situation in terms of safety valve behind a terrible line.
 
Dude is a high-end receiving RB
I keep hearing this. Not sure the evidence backs that up.
He had 40 catches in the second half of the season last year.
I know. Does that make him "great" or "high-end"? He averaged 6.7 y/r, that doesn't seem particularly high-end or great.

It's fantasy relevant but, I'm not sure he's a high-end receiver IRL.
I think the barrier for entry for a rb is opportunity and the ability to do it.

Jordan Mason is a solid runner, and he was in offense that seemed to favor featuring that and couldn't execute it.

That YPC is in line with what Saquan did with the giants, in a similar situation in terms of safety valve behind a terrible line.
I guess if you confine the answer to opportunity his numbers as a starter last season prorate to 82 targets at 7.3 y/r. Which is great, if it happens over a full season.
 
Dude is a high-end receiving RB
I keep hearing this. Not sure the evidence backs that up.
He had 40 catches in the second half of the season last year.
I know. Does that make him "great" or "high-end"? He averaged 6.7 y/r, that doesn't seem particularly high-end or great.

It's fantasy relevant but, I'm not sure he's a high-end receiver IRL.
I think the barrier for entry for a rb is opportunity and the ability to do it.

Jordan Mason is a solid runner, and he was in offense that seemed to favor featuring that and couldn't execute it.

That YPC is in line with what Saquan did with the giants, in a similar situation in terms of safety valve behind a terrible line.
I guess if you confine the answer to opportunity his numbers as a starter last season prorate to 82 targets at 7.3 y/r. Which is great, if it happens over a full season.
It all went to hell with burrow, all priori numbers and expectations are gone but that was the thought process in taking him. I didn’t think he was elite but I thought he had an elite situation. Which he did for a game and a half.

I mean even Taylor was hyping up his usage

If they cant get things blocked it won’t matter if it’s chase brown or Jim brown
 
Dude is a high-end receiving RB
I keep hearing this. Not sure the evidence backs that up.
He had 40 catches in the second half of the season last year.
I know. Does that make him "great" or "high-end"? He averaged 6.7 y/r, that doesn't seem particularly high-end or great.

It's fantasy relevant but, I'm not sure he's a high-end receiver IRL.
I think the barrier for entry for a rb is opportunity and the ability to do it.

Jordan Mason is a solid runner, and he was in offense that seemed to favor featuring that and couldn't execute it.

That YPC is in line with what Saquan did with the giants, in a similar situation in terms of safety valve behind a terrible line.
I guess if you confine the answer to opportunity his numbers as a starter last season prorate to 82 targets at 7.3 y/r. Which is great, if it happens over a full season.
It all went to hell with burrow, all priori numbers and expectations are gone but that was the thought process in taking him. I didn’t think he was elite but I thought he had an elite situation. Which he did for a game and a half.

I mean even Taylor was hyping up his usage

If they cant get things blocked it won’t matter if it’s chase brown or Jim brown
I would never bet against Jim Brown and, certainly not against zombie Jim Brown.

But I see your meaning.
 
Horrible production but FFguys still ranking him high. Top 12 RB they say!

Sour from week3 start. Very frustrating. Benching until I see different.
 
Horrible production but FFguys still ranking him high. Top 12 RB they say!

Sour from week3 start. Very frustrating. Benching until I see different.
Pretty sure there’s easily 16-17 guys I’d feel more comfortable starting over him right now, maybe more if I really sat down and thought about it. Top 12 seems really optimistic. Cool, he’s playing a lot of snaps. He hasn’t broken 9 PPR points the last two weeks.
 
What's weird is I see guys online saying with so much certainty that he'll regress to the mean and that the xFP is there and that therefore the fantasy points will come.

Um, I'm not great with statistics, but I have learned one thing from baseball SABR guys and some of the football analysts that love math. I'm bad with stats, but I'm being serious when I say that they're pretty bad with assuming certain things can be held constant or that we can use ceteris paribus and it will be an accurate reflection of how life and sport work.

You can't just say "well, this is what we expect to happen when these guys are in this position." I mean, they just started being able to account for where guys are on a field (barely) never mind how they move or how fast and what angle they're going at and why they're moving like they move . . . and the whole thing is a little hinky when you watch the outlying incompetence that has befallen the Raiders and the Bengals offensive lines. I'm not saying they are snowflakes. There have always been awful lines. I just don't see how you account for that with enough of a sample size to have a mean given their situations.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I'm all ears.
 
Holding, I can't imagine if the usage remains that the numbers don't improve to at least FLEX range. For now though, to the bench, as I was fortunate enough to stash Judkins and Benson at RB and Pearsall at FLEX.
 
Holding, I can't imagine if the usage remains that the numbers don't improve to at least FLEX range. For now though, to the bench, as I was fortunate enough to stash Judkins and Benson at RB and Pearsall at FLEX.
Holding as well. It can't be this bad.

Browning is capable. The MN game was a perfect storm.

I don't have a choice but to start him. Hoping he starts getting some Kamara like PPR scam games where he gets 10 receptions for 27 yards.
 
I'm right there with you guys regarding holding and even starting, however Denver is a tough D then they play the Lions and Packers. What a brutal gauntlet for the Cincy O.
 
Given his usage and the gauntlet ahead, I’m almost certain Brown is going to be replaced by Brooks sooner than later, either due to injury or performance.
I don't think anyone would do well behind that OL, why the confidence Brooks would produce better?
I didn’t express any confidence that Brooks will produce better results than Brown, though he certainly could. Hard to be much worse.

I just think Brown is going to continue struggling and combined with the workload he’s getting, he’s bound to get hurt. He’s not a big dude by NFL standards.

I’m not going to pretend I know anything about Brooks beyond his scouting report, highlight reel, and a few “expert” opinions. But if Cincy keeps losing, Brown keeps averaging 2.0 ypc and/or gets hurt, Brooks is eventually going to get a shot one way or another.

Eventually, the coach has to try something different. Whether or not Brooks can do anything if and when he gets an opportunity, only time will tell. Crazier things have happened.
 
Given his usage and the gauntlet ahead, I’m almost certain Brown is going to be replaced by Brooks sooner than later, either due to injury or performance.
I don't think anyone would do well behind that OL, why the confidence Brooks would produce better?
Agreed. Feels like wishcasting.
I’m rostering Brown and Brooks. I’d prefer Brown perform like we expected him to, which would make Brooks an afterthought. However, Brown’s 2.0 ypc is unsustainable, and his upcoming schedule is brutal, which means we shouldn’t expect a sudden uptick in production. I think it’s more likely he gets hurt than he starts producing for fantasy or real life.

You can call it wishcasting, I’d just call it a logical prediction based on what we know.
 
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I could see Cincy starting Brooks if they are fully packing it in for the season and waving the white flag. But the problem isn't Brown exclusively, it's the offense from the OL to the QB. If Brooks gave them even a modicum of advantage, they'd be using him now.
 
Given his usage and the gauntlet ahead, I’m almost certain Brown is going to be replaced by Brooks sooner than later, either due to injury or performance.
I don't think anyone would do well behind that OL, why the confidence Brooks would produce better?
Agreed. Feels like wishcasting.
I’m rostering Brown and Brooks. I’d prefer Brown perform like we expected him too, which would make Brooks an afterthought. However, Brown’s 2.0 ypc is unsustainable, and his upcoming schedule is brutal, which means we shouldn’t expect a sudden uptick in production. I think it’s more likely he gets hurt than he starts producing for fantasy or real life.

You can call it wishcasting, I’d just call it a logical prediction based on what we know.
Handcuffing with Brooks makes sense IMO.

Predicting injury or benching is wishcasting IMO.
 
This is an interesting case study. I always like to look in hindsight at what experts say about players and in this case, I can't think of one highly touted expert who was bearish about Chase Brown. So far, it looks like they were all wrong here.

The arguments in favor were volume and the great offense. No real concern about their horrible offensive line though.

They'll get a little bit of a mulligan because of the Burrow injury, and without a good Oline, this is not a very good team.

if this is a lost year, his value next summer could be all over the place. He might be a buy in dynasty. He isn't for me, I don't have a lot of faith in that organization, or Burrows health. Someone else without those concerns may get a bargain
 
This is an interesting case study. I always like to look in hindsight at what experts say about players and in this case, I can't think of one highly touted expert who was bearish about Chase Brown. So far, it looks like they were all wrong here.

The arguments in favor were volume and the great offense. No real concern about their horrible offensive line though.

They'll get a little bit of a mulligan because of the Burrow injury, and without a good Oline, this is not a very good team.

if this is a lost year, his value next summer could be all over the place. He might be a buy in dynasty. He isn't for me, I don't have a lot of faith in that organization, or Burrows health. Someone else without those concerns may get a bargain
He was pretty bad in the first 2 weeks with Burrow, albeit a small sample size. The O line seems to be the biggest factor in his ineffectiveness. But we knew their o line would be bad, and it was bad last year when Brown played well. And Mixon before him ran pretty well behind their terrible lines.
 
I could see Cincy starting Brooks if they are fully packing it in for the season and waving the white flag. But the problem isn't Brown exclusively, it's the offense from the OL to the QB. If Brooks gave them even a modicum of advantage, they'd be using him now.
This feels like a good time to point out the Bengals are currently in 1st place in their division. I don't see packing it in happening anytime soon.

I think Brown has a lot of job security, its pretty much the only thing keeping his value afloat. I wouldn't want him as more than a flex play against Denver, but I still think solid RB2 weeks will be coming.
 
This is an interesting case study. I always like to look in hindsight at what experts say about players and in this case, I can't think of one highly touted expert who was bearish about Chase Brown. So far, it looks like they were all wrong here.

The arguments in favor were volume and the great offense. No real concern about their horrible offensive line though.

They'll get a little bit of a mulligan because of the Burrow injury, and without a good Oline, this is not a very good team.

if this is a lost year, his value next summer could be all over the place. He might be a buy in dynasty. He isn't for me, I don't have a lot of faith in that organization, or Burrows health. Someone else without those concerns may get a bargain
He was pretty bad in the first 2 weeks with Burrow, albeit a small sample size. The O line seems to be the biggest factor in his ineffectiveness. But we knew their o line would be bad, and it was bad last year when Brown played well. And Mixon before him ran pretty well behind their terrible lines.
I may be looking for some copium but week 1 Cincy played the Browns. Since then, the Browns have shut down Henry and Jacobs. No one is running on the Browns.
 

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