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RB Chris Carson, SEA - 10.7.21 - Neck Issue (1 Viewer)

bostonfred said:
Yes, it is a small sample size.  The point I was making was that people said Carson outplayed penny this week. Or that penny was plodding. And they pointed to a difference in yards per carry on a small sample size.  But penny's 3 best runs were better than Carson's 3 best - penny had runs of 10, 6 and 4 compared with Carson's 9, 4 and 4. And penny got hit behind the line of scrimmage twice as he was receiving the handoff, resulting in carries of 0 and minus one.  So Carson's 6 carries for 24 and Penny's 10 for 30 look like they're a whole yard per carry different, but the reality is they both looked decent.  

Agreed.  I liked him a lot as a sleeper last year and was bummed when he got hurt.  

Draft capital is definitely part of it.  But it's also his ceiling.  If I have two guys playing similarly right now but one has worked as hard as anyone to get there and the other is just getting started, I want to reward the hard worker, but I still want the higher ceiling guy to get reps so he can reach his potential. 

The team sees penny as a workhorse feature back - a guy who not only has the size to carry the load and the speed to hit the home run, but the receiving ability to get there. And they used him in two critical fourth quarter drives when they were trailing the bears, so the much discussed blocking issues apparently aren't a show stopper. 

Carson is trying to make the case that he can do those things, too. And maybe he'll succeed. But the team apparently thought penny had that potential and didn't think their current roster did, so it's a case he'll have to continue to make. 

The seahawks lost their first game and with Carson as the starter, they had 3 points through three quarters this week. 

Then they brought in penny and gave him the ball on 10 of the next 14 plays. Penny had more first downs than Carson, and they scored their first touchdown on a play action fake to penny.

The bears intercepted a pass intended for penny when he was split out wide - you can make a case that that's bad for penny, but the idea that they can use him as a receiver like that in the first place is one of the things that gives penny that high ceiling.  

The drive penny came in unquestionably sparked an offense that had gone 3 and out repeatedly.  Was it because penny was in?  Because the defense was playing soft?  Could Carson have done the same things?  Should they have used Carson more in the first 3 quarters?  Those are all fair questions.  Saying that the seahawks hurt their chances of winning by bringing penny in, though, is not fair.  They scored 14 of their 17 points with Carson on the bench. 
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This does not seem like your typical solid analysis @bostonfred getting hit behind the line of scrimmage sucks but it doesn't mean there would have been a positive outcome had he not gotten hit on those two carries only, perhaps, a slightly less negative outcome.  Maybe he breaks a 50 yard TD but maybe he fumbles who knows? The point is that removing carries (which we all know is a specious practice at best) is not a viable means of analysis. Even if it were how do we explain what happened last week in Denver when Penny went 7 for 8 and Carson went 7 for 51? How many carries do we remove to even that one out?

Maybe the question should be why isn't Carson getting hit behind the line of scrimmage or why is Penny getting hit behind the LoS?  It's the same team, same terrible offensive line, same terrible offensive coordinator. It could just as easily be Penny's fault for not seeing and reacting (and Carson is overcoming similar scenarios).

Right now we don't have a situation where two backs are playing similarly, we have one back (Carson) outproducing another back (Penny). We can excuse carries or talk about small sample sizes but the bottom line is that Carson is outproducing Penny by a substantial margin.

And since when is Penny now an asset in the passing game? This entire off-season the narrative on Penny was how he was a liability in the passing game, couldn't block, don't know if he can catch due to limited opportunities in college etc. Personally I never bought into that narrative because I think pass blocking is vastly overrated (hat tip to @Bojang0301) and I thought Penny showed enough in college. But still that was all over the Penny thread (and I think in this one too).

Also Penny and Carson have virtually the identical physical measurements (5'11" 220lbs, Penny ran 0.08 seconds in one 40 yard dash at the combine and Carson put up 10 more reps, jumped 10 feet further and 5 inches higher.  Neither ran shuttles or cones).

The Seahawks analyzed their roster this past off-season and clearly identified a need at the RB position, I won't argue that but why is that a knock on Carson and not a recognition that every team needs at least two good running backs?

Right now draft capital is the only explanation for why Penny was in the game in the second half.  Carroll owned the stupidity of his excuse (or maybe just his stupidity) regarding Carson "being gassed" yesterday. Look for Carson to get a few more opportunities this week before the Carroll/Schottenheimer stupidity again overtakes rational thought and screws it up for everyone.

 
DocHolliday said:
As a Carson owner, I cannot wait to drop him and get away from this offense.  It stinks.  Carroll has no clue what to do on O.  Wilson is not going to be able to cover up Carroll and the lack of talent this year. 

Carson is probably the better runner than Penny right now but Penny is going to get more touches each week. 
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This is pretty much as I see it.

 
@Chaka I'm not taking away carries.  I'm rejecting the use of ypc alone with such a small sample size.  

Carson has had better results running the ball so far.  The gap closed some this week.  

Penny caught 4 balls week 1 and none week 2 but he's lining up as a wr at times.   

Carson has earned the starting role.  Penny has a high ceiling but isn't there yet. 

The seahawks have given Carson the start but given penny more carries than the starter. 

That may have been because of draft capital, but it may also have been strategic. The seahawks scored 3 points in the first 3 quarters with Carson in and they scored a touchdown the first drive they committed to penny.  Penny carried the ball on almost every play that drive and it set up the play action fake for a touchdown.  On the second drive they lined penny up wide and threw it to him. The pass was intercepted, but their intent was to use him as a legitimate feature back who can split out wide during that drive too.

I don't consider penny a good blocker or bad blocker or good receiver or anything.  I only know what the seahawks have done with him, and it's consistent with how high they took him in the draft.  

I think the purpose of an objective conversation is to say "the seahawks seem to be doing this and I think they will do that in the future", then I think that's good objective analysis.  I don't think the purpose is to second guess them for not playing the guy i think is playing better unless i think that's predictive of future usage.  

 
bostonfred said:
@Chaka I'm not taking away carries.  I'm rejecting the use of ypc alone with such a small sample size.  

Carson has had better results running the ball so far.  The gap closed some this week.  

Penny caught 4 balls week 1 and none week 2 but he's lining up as a wr at times.   

Carson has earned the starting role.  Penny has a high ceiling but isn't there yet. 

The seahawks have given Carson the start but given penny more carries than the starter. 

That may have been because of draft capital, but it may also have been strategic. The seahawks scored 3 points in the first 3 quarters with Carson in and they scored a touchdown the first drive they committed to penny.  Penny carried the ball on almost every play that drive and it set up the play action fake for a touchdown.  On the second drive they lined penny up wide and threw it to him. The pass was intercepted, but their intent was to use him as a legitimate feature back who can split out wide during that drive too.

I don't consider penny a good blocker or bad blocker or good receiver or anything.  I only know what the seahawks have done with him, and it's consistent with how high they took him in the draft.  

I think the purpose of an objective conversation is to say "the seahawks seem to be doing this and I think they will do that in the future", then I think that's good objective analysis.  I don't think the purpose is to second guess them for not playing the guy i think is playing better unless i think that's predictive of future usage.  
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Okay I see your logic a little more clearly now.

Regarding the TD drive, yes they gave Penny that entire drive and they scored.  I have difficulty believing Penny was responsible for altering the defense in any way or that he was somehow the catalyst. You aren't saying that overtly but the implication is implicit, even if unintentional.  He had a very nice 10 yard gain on the first carry from the Seattle 25.  The result of his next four touches left the Seahawks in 2nd & 9, 2nd & 11, 2nd & 6 & 2nd & 7.  I draw two conclusions from that, Penny wasn't a catalyst for that drive and, more importantly Schottenheimer can't call a game for ####. I doubt many RBs would do much when the plays are telegraphed so clearly.

I am a big fan of Penny and I really want to see him succeed in the NFL (I'm an SDSU alum) but I also think Carson has earned the larger portion of the time share for now and should be given the opportunity to succeed or fail.

 
Chaka said:
This does not seem like your typical solid analysis @bostonfred getting hit behind the line of scrimmage sucks but it doesn't mean there would have been a positive outcome had he not gotten hit on those two carries only, perhaps, a slightly less negative outcome.  Maybe he breaks a 50 yard TD but maybe he fumbles who knows? The point is that removing carries (which we all know is a specious practice at best) is not a viable means of analysis. Even if it were how do we explain what happened last week in Denver when Penny went 7 for 8 and Carson went 7 for 51? How many carries do we remove to even that one out?

Maybe the question should be why isn't Carson getting hit behind the line of scrimmage or why is Penny getting hit behind the LoS?  It's the same team, same terrible offensive line, same terrible offensive coordinator. It could just as easily be Penny's fault for not seeing and reacting (and Carson is overcoming similar scenarios).

Right now we don't have a situation where two backs are playing similarly, we have one back (Carson) outproducing another back (Penny). We can excuse carries or talk about small sample sizes but the bottom line is that Carson is outproducing Penny by a substantial margin.

And since when is Penny now an asset in the passing game? This entire off-season the narrative on Penny was how he was a liability in the passing game, couldn't block, don't know if he can catch due to limited opportunities in college etc. Personally I never bought into that narrative because I think pass blocking is vastly overrated (hat tip to @Bojang0301) and I thought Penny showed enough in college. But still that was all over the Penny thread (and I think in this one too).

Also Penny and Carson have virtually the identical physical measurements (5'11" 220lbs, Penny ran 0.08 seconds in one 40 yard dash at the combine and Carson put up 10 more reps, jumped 10 feet further and 5 inches higher.  Neither ran shuttles or cones).

The Seahawks analyzed their roster this past off-season and clearly identified a need at the RB position, I won't argue that but why is that a knock on Carson and not a recognition that every team needs at least two good running backs?

Right now draft capital is the only explanation for why Penny was in the game in the second half.  Carroll owned the stupidity of his excuse (or maybe just his stupidity) regarding Carson "being gassed" yesterday. Look for Carson to get a few more opportunities this week before the Carroll/Schottenheimer stupidity again overtakes rational thought and screws it up for everyone.
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Dang good post Chaka!   Very informative with some opinion.  This is what I come here for.

thanks man.

 
DocHolliday said:
As a Carson owner, I cannot wait to drop him and get away from this offense.  It stinks.  Carroll has no clue what to do on O.  Wilson is not going to be able to cover up Carroll and the lack of talent this year. 

Carson is probably the better runner than Penny right now but Penny is going to get more touches each week. 
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Their offensive coordinator could be better-a lot better.   As in a new one.  IMO

 
Others have  mentioned how things are not what they used to be. Coach used to be able to depend on the qb and defense to bail them out, not true anymore.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Others have mentioned how things are not what they used to be. Coach used to be able to depend on the qb and defense to bail them out, not true anymore.
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Well having 2nd and 6 and 2nd and 8 are far different.

Carson is at 5.9 on first down. Last year he was at 3.7. Career is 4.24.

Penny?  2.08.

Penny couldn't beat out Donnell Pumphrey for three years at SDSU. Pumphrey can barely keep an NFL job and he is the All-Time collegiate rushing leader from that same Mountain West offense -- but their numbers are certainly massive. 

 
BigSteelThrill said:
Well having 2nd and 6 and 2nd and 8 are far different.

Carson is at 5.9 on first down. Last year he was at 3.7. Career is 4.24.

Penny?  2.08.

Penny couldn't beat out Donnell Pumphrey for three years at SDSU. Pumphrey can barely keep an NFL job and he is the All-Time collegiate rushing leader from that same Mountain West offense -- but their numbers are certainly massive. 
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You’re fine on the first part (it’s backed by fact) but let’s cut out the Pumphrey crap. Basil Mitchell started over LT2 in college and you didn’t know who that was until you just read that sentence.  

 
Bojang0301 said:
You’re fine on the first part (it’s backed by fact) but let’s cut out the Pumphrey crap. Basil Mitchell started over LT2 in college and you didn’t know who that was until you just read that sentence.  
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Its something to consider, even if you do so only slightly... particularly the college production numbers.

 
DropKick said:
Two people I don't trust... my ex-wife and Pete Carroll.
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But, yes I don't have much faith in Carroll & Schottenheimer to stick with either back too long.

Unless, one of them goes full Beast Mode from the jump. Then...maybe?

 
DocHolliday said:
it doesn't matter if Carson is outperforming Penny.  Carroll is going to force Penny into the line up.  
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I think that may be true up to a point.  But for the longest time Carroll has been a guy who says the best guys play and has backed that up with his actions.  But this season you get the feeling that Carroll may be coaching for his job for the first time in a very long time so maybe that has changed.

 
Chaka said:
I think that may be true up to a point.  But for the longest time Carroll has been a guy who says the best guys play and has backed that up with his actions.  But this season you get the feeling that Carroll may be coaching for his job for the first time in a very long time so maybe that has changed.
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If he is coaching for his job wouldn't that mean he would want to start the best guys to win games?

 
I dropped Carson in every league I owned him for peanuts.

Penny isn't the only one eating into his touches/snaps. Prosise played on 27% of the snaps, Davis 14%. With Penny playing on 30% and Carson 29% this is looking like the PHI type RBBC from last year, the infamous 4-headed hydra. This is the type of RBBC that you don't even want a part of when it's playing behind one of the best OLs in the league. And in this case, it's the exact inverse.

SEA RBs haven't scored a rushing TD in their last 18 games.

Schottenheimer sucks and 100% doesn't deserve a job.

SEA's defense has actually performed a bit better than I had initially expecting, specifically from a ball hawking perspective, but they might be without Thomas and Kendricks this week.

There's no value here. Penny could get injured tomorrow and Carson still wouldn't have value.

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
If he is coaching for his job wouldn't that mean he would want to start the best guys to win games?
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There's something about justifying reaching for a pick that might be making him say, "we better play the guy we went against all consensus to take." If he and the GM work together on picks -- and they say they do -- then that's a concern for Carroll. 

But Carroll always has been a "best guy plays" guy, as evidenced by Wilson/Flynn back half a decade or so ago.  

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
If he is coaching for his job wouldn't that mean he would want to start the best guys to win games?
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Part of playing for his job involves justifying his decision making process.  Ownership could look at giving Carson the lion's share as a big "WTF did we spend a first round pick on?" Although I do not think that is the case.  IMO they should have drafted offensive line help in the first round, did anyone not think that?

Regardless of player valuation I think we all viewed RB as a position of legitimate need for the Seahawks.  Carson could be Marshawn Lynch and they would still need another legitimate RB on the roster. I don't view Prosise and McKissic as legitimate options if called upon to take the reins. They are role players and I think that is how Seattle views them as well.

 
While I think people are going way overboard online over his game today (long of 13 yards, 3.1 ypc, extremely limited in the passing game), this is the kind of volume Schottenheimer will promote during a positive game script. I think this is a sell high if you can. Penny came off because his fumble. Now, I’m not going to offer any defense of Penny. It’s been painful to see his development be this disappointing and this is Carson’s job for right now. Just the way it is. I still don’t see Carson’s ceiling as more than JAG. 

 
Bojang0301 said:
While I think people are going way overboard online over his game today (long of 13 yards, 3.1 ypc, extremely limited in the passing game), this is the kind of volume Schottenheimer will promote during a positive game script. I think this is a sell high if you can. Penny came off because his fumble. Now, I’m not going to offer any defense of Penny. It’s been painful to see his development be this disappointing and this is Carson’s job for right now. Just the way it is. I still don’t see Carson’s ceiling as more than JAG. 
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And its still heaps better then Penny.   *Lets not forget that Dallas is a very good defense.

 
So Pete was actually telling the truth last week when he said that he thought Carson was winded from playing special teams and that's why he didn't get touches? What in the actual ####.

 
SameSongNDance said:
So Pete was actually telling the truth last week when he said that he thought Carson was winded from playing special teams and that's why he didn't get touches? What in the actual ####.
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I don't think so, my guess is that he was trying to protect Schottenheimer.  I think the O coordinator wanted to mix in Penny and then after the fact they realized how poorly they managed the game.

 
BigSteelThrill said:
And its still heaps better then Penny.   *Lets not forget that Dallas is a very good defense.
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It wasn’t Dallas defense that was a catalyst to Carson actually having production it was their offense. You are missing the boat to think Carson can be productive with Seattle losing. He offers very little for the passing game. He’s not a special back and I don’t know what people want or expect him to be? Benjarvus Green-Ellis on a bad team? I wish you the best of luck identifying when Seattle will have a positive game script that allows him to get his 30 carries. 

 
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Just to attempt to remove the bias: Penny has been bad. His development has been non-existent and he should not be on redraft rosters right now. He looks lost in comparison to the NFL and the game is seemingly too big for him coming from the program he came from. In the short term: I was wrong about Penny. That doesn’t make Carson a good back.

 
I don't understand how he offers little in the passing game. I have seen him make very tough catches in preseason and in the regular season, he's not Theo Riddick catching the ball but he's not Brandon Jacobs either. Not to mention up to this point he is a much better pass protector than Penny.

EDIT: As for efficiency, at one point he was 23/81 and had been up to 4 YPC earlier in the 3rd quarter. A number of the carries in the late 3rd/early 4th he was slamming into brick walls to kill clock.

 
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The Frankman said:
I don't understand how he offers little in the passing game. I have seen him make very tough catches in preseason and in the regular season, he's not Theo Riddick catching the ball but he's not Brandon Jacobs either. Not to mention up to this point he is a much better pass protector than Penny.

EDIT: As for efficiency, at one point he was 23/81 and had been up to 4 YPC earlier in the 3rd quarter. A number of the carries in the late 3rd/early 4th he was slamming into brick walls to kill clock.
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Yup. He was 2-22 receiving today and he was absolutely salting away the clock in the fourth.

 
A couple small tidbits from the ProFootballFocus ReFocused articles they do right after each game.

Refocused, NFL Week 3: Seattle Seahawks 24, Dallas Cowboys 13    By PFF Analysis Team • Sep 24, 2018

The star of the show was Chris Carson, who made the running game work. Despite some sub-optimal blocking, he managed to find room while also grinding out some hard yards through contact, all of which was epitomized by his late third-down conversion that effectively iced the game.

Keys to the game. Seattle:

This was a game where the excellence of Carson was the determining factor. He constantly got more yards than his blocking gave him, and that was key in sustaining drives.
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:coffee:

 
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The Frankman said:
I don't understand how he offers little in the passing game. I have seen him make very tough catches in preseason and in the regular season, he's not Theo Riddick catching the ball but he's not Brandon Jacobs either. Not to mention up to this point he is a much better pass protector than Penny.

EDIT: As for efficiency, at one point he was 23/81 and had been up to 4 YPC earlier in the 3rd quarter. A number of the carries in the late 3rd/early 4th he was slamming into brick walls to kill clock.
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I miss this guy

 
TripleThreat said:
Gassed to Bell cow. I FCKN hate P.C. 
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We are playing with fire to some degree but if Penny continues to look each week, Carson will get touches.  We need to view this on a week-by-week basis.  Carson will get the majority of touches next week.  Week after?  Too early to tell. 

 
Bojang0301 said:
 I wish you the best of luck identifying when Seattle will have a positive game script that allows him to get his 30 carries. 
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There is a distinct possibility that if Carson continues to get a heavy work load; he may break off a long run or two in future games and won't need 30 carries to be a significant fantasy scorer.   Dallas has a pretty good run D and Seattle had Fluker playing for the first time, but were also missing 2 starters in Britt and Pocic.  It was a positive results even with the relatively low YPC.  Carson isn't Barry Sanders, but has a knack to power through tackles and make positive gains when nothing is there.  He also shows burst when a lane opens up.  He is undeniable the better back right now over Penny and from my perspective much better than a 3 yards and cloud of dust guy. 

 
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DocHolliday said:
We are playing with fire to some degree but if Penny continues to look each week, Carson will get touches.  We need to view this on a week-by-week basis.  Carson will get the majority of touches next week.  Week after?  Too early to tell. 
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This seems liked the most balanced view. Nobody is saying that he is awesome, just that for now he is the most obvious back to own there.

 
Bojang0301 said:
It wasn’t Dallas defense that was a catalyst to Carson actually having production it was their offense. You are missing the boat to think Carson can be productive with Seattle losing. He offers very little for the passing game. He’s not a special back and I don’t know what people want or expect him to be? Benjarvus Green-Ellis on a bad team? I wish you the best of luck identifying when Seattle will have a positive game script that allows him to get his 30 carries. 
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I expect him to be what he is. A yeti who brings his own blocker and has a running style that fits what the Seahawks want to do. They do not block well, so they want a RB who is good at gaining yards after contact. Its been this way ever since they got Lynch. They just keep breaking their RB.

I don't think you are looking at this objectively. Carson had 50 offensive snaps (72%) 32 rushing attempts for 102 yards (3.2 ypc) and a TD. Penny had 14 offensive snaps (14%) 3 carries 5 yards (1.7 ypc) neither is a big enough sample size for ypc to be meaningful, but even though your argument seems to be that Carson is inefficient, he is still more efficient than Penny has been, so in a relative sense, the Seahawks are not making a mistake or missing out on anything by playing Carson almost exclusively over Penny right now.

The only thing that really matters for fantasy is the opportunity and Carson is getting that right now.

I think it is too early to turn the page here as Penny may improve and get his shot to be the man later on in the season. If Carson keeps getting the ball this much, he might break down, then Penny will get his chance. At least Penny is still playing more than Mike Davis or Prosise.

For now though it is all day Yeti romping which is a beautiful thing.

 
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