I think this stuff is important. They're going to just key on him and spread everybody out in coverage or the linebackers and defensive backs will just key on him because he's not a threat to run anymore.
This guy's YPC for his five games has seen him average, from Weeks One through Five: 3.1 YPC (Seattle), 4.2 YPC (New Orleans), 3.1 YPC (Arizona), 2.9 YPC (Jacksonville), 2.6 YPC (Los Angeles Rams)
I mean, Seattle and Los Angeles have tough fronts. So does Jacksonville, and Arizona seems pretty good, too.
Guess it could be the competition, but it looks like he's getting by on route running and guile. I don't know. How long do you run this guy out there for thirty touches a game when he's averaging 2.7 or so a carry the last two games?
No other RB faces a deck as stacked against him as CMC. I think that explains most of the sub 4 ypc. If there is a drop off with age, I don't think it's very much. Maybe we can get a better idea if he stays healthy long enough to get his first string passing and receiving attack back. I expect that to lengthen his ypc and lessen his touches - not sure if it helps or hurts his overall fantasy production. Please, Christian, just stay healthy.
Agree with
@Catbird .
Game 1 - WR1 Aiyuk out; TE1 Kittle played 21 snaps total due to injury
Game 2 - WR1 Aiyuk, TE1 Kittle, QB1 Purdy out; LG Bartch played 10 snaps total due to injury
Game 3 - WR1 Aiyuk, TE1 Kittle, QB1 Purdy, LG1 Bartch out
Game 4 - WR1 Aiyuk, TE1 Kittle, LG1 Bartch out; WR2/3 Jennings played 48 snaps due to injury; WR2/3 Pearsall played 37 snaps due to injury
Game 5 - WR1 Aiyuk, TE1 Kittle, QB1 Purdy, LG1 Bartch, WR2/3 Jennings, WR2/3 Pearsall out
Looking at that, it doesn't seem that surprising that defenses have been able to key in on McCaffrey in the running game, shown in his ypc. Even if McCaffrey has lost a step, I have to believe these players returning will force defenses to back off in the running game at least a bit, which should help his performance.
For every stat that follows, there is a 25 carry minimum and there are 44 guys that have met that threshold thus far in 2025
The best stat you can pull to see if a defense is keying on him is how many guys are in the box when he runs. McCaffrey is 11th in the league with 7.40 defenders in the box on average. So ten guys see more players in the box than him out of 44. So 33 see less men in the box than he does. There are definitely a significant amount of men in the box during his average attempt , but it doesn't seem to be an overwhelmingly ridiculous number in relation to the league average, nor even strong evidence of defenses keying on him and only him. To further this, one turns to another stat, and that is how often he sees eight men or more in the box. Eight men in the box is usually the standard refrain or signal that another team is trying to stop the running back from rushing, and McCaffrey sees 8 or more men 20.88% of the time, which is the eighteenth least of all rushers. There are 26 RBs that see eight men or more in the box more often than McCaffery does. It at least diminishes the claim they're trying to sell out to stop him from running.
So, I know stats aren't the end-all be-all of attention paid to someone. But they're clearly not radically selling out or positioning themselves noticeably to clog him or stop him. They might move there or have him in their vision and consciousness, but . . . it doesn't seem like very strong evidence.
Here are some more signs of either aging, or good defenses and schemes, or coaching preference. I think if you keep reading you will see it. 44 RBs qualified for these measures and statistics, remember.
McCaffrey is 38th in explosive play percentage, which is when your rushing attempt is among the longest 10% of runs during the year; he is 38th in Yards Per Carry with 3.10; he is 35th in success rate, which is when the run meets particular conditions that have historically benefited the RBs team; he is 32nd in tackled for a loss rate; 41st in EPA/play (expected points added from the play); his first down percentage, which is the carries that give his team a first down is 37th; his 91 total rushing attempts are 1st; his 282 total rushing yards are 9th; his unbelievably numerous 39 receptions are comedically 1st; his 387 receiving yards are easily 1st; and I do not know his yards per reception ranking, but he has a 9.9 yards per reception average, which seems to me to be slightly better than average.
According to Pro Football Reference, he has the lowest yards after contact per play of anybody with 25 rushes. He's at .8 yards after contact per rush, which puts him in 44th place, and is 2.6 full yards behind the leader, and 1.1 yard behind the average yac/attempt. His yards before contact, which is a function of blocking and time to the line of scrimmage has him as having the17th-best number while having the 6th best time to the line of scrimmage (a good stat). He ranks 39th in a Next Gen efficiency rating, which is the average amount of yards covered per yard gained, with a 4.93 figure, meaning that he runs 4.93 yards for every yard gained on the field, and it is claimed that is a measure of North-South vs. East-West running.
He has 5 rushes over ten yards on his 91 attempts. His longest rush is 15 yards.
Those are just some stats that I found while pulling the box stat, which is the relevant stat here.
These stats are pulled from Sumer Sports, Fantasy Pros, Pro Football Reference, and Next Gen Stats
