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RB Christian McCaffrey, SF (4 Viewers)

fruity pebbles said:
How about any offense that doesn't involve Jeff Fisher?
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Point taken.  

These Jack of All Trade Yet Master of None college players.....who was the most successful one drafted the highest.  Was Reggie Bush that?  Is he comparable to McCaffery? Are there any comparable players to McCaffery in college that could be taken later in the draft?  I'm hearing McCaffery maybe to the Eagles at 14.  That just seems too high. 

 
Thunderlips said:
Point taken.  

These Jack of All Trade Yet Master of None college players.....who was the most successful one drafted the highest.  Was Reggie Bush that?  Is he comparable to McCaffery? Are there any comparable players to McCaffery in college that could be taken later in the draft?  I'm hearing McCaffery maybe to the Eagles at 14.  That just seems too high. 
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Tiki Barber, Marshall Faulk, Chris Johnson?

We kind of post facto define these guys as workhorses or gadget players after we see them in the NFL but a lot of these guys as prospects had similar concerns.

This narrative that McCaffrey wasn't a running back in college is just weird.  Why is 337 carries for 2019 yards in a season not a master of running the ball?  It's easy to say guys like Barber and Faulk and Johnson were different now in hindsight, but the reality is that as prospects they weren't really that different.  If anything Johnson got a lot less work actually running the ball and more work receiving/returning than McCaffrey.

 
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Rookie_Whisperer said:
Elite speed matters for a 202 lb back.  McCaffrey does not possess it.  Marshall and CJ2K had it.
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That's definitely a fair point.  Most successful backs in that weight range had elite speed.  Not just elite agility, but pure speed.

There are some exceptions though.  McCoy ran a 4.45 40 (pro day advantage as well, so probably around a 4.5 if he'd run at the combine) at the same size.  

Tiki Barber's numbers are hard to find because they didn't really record much back then, but most reports have him at 5'10" and weighing anywhere from 190-200lbs with his 40 time at 4.6.

Not having the elite speed at that size is surely not ideal but it's not necessarily a death knell and we haven't seen what kind of an effect that super high end athleticism in other areas will have.

 
One part of McAffrey's value is that IF he turns out he's gonna get hyped up to the moon.  When exceptions to the rule (in this case a white RB) pan out it creates interest and hype.  That will drive his value up as everyone wants a piece of the outliers.  

Not in a racist way, just in a different way.  If a Zika baby, midget, giant, etc ended up a stud FF player that would draw attention too.  Being different and succeeding draws eyeballs.

 
Bronco Billy said:
And that's similar to McCaffrey how?
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You stated that switching positions at the NFL level was near impossible. It's not. Transitioning from RB to WR would be a hell of a lot easier than going from QB to WR. I don't think this will happen, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility.

 
Am I missing something?  Why would a team not use him in a similar way to Darren sproles / Danny Woodhead? Great receiver out of the backfield, split him out wide every so often to exploit a mismatch, not a deep receiver but he'll get 7 yards a pop.  

It won't happen but I'd love to see him in Tennessee next to Murray / Henry with Mariota moving the ball efficiently.  

Similarly (and more likely imo), if he falls to Dallas that offense would be fun to watch. 

 
petekrum said:
You stated that switching positions at the NFL level was near impossible.
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No I did not.  But you just keep throwing those strawmen up there to reinforce your weak position, which is that he's white and that he's too light, even though he's about the same weight that more than a few very successful RBs have come into the NFL at.  In the meantime you willfully ignore his performance, mentality, and skill set that we witnessed in college.  I take that back, maybe you didn't witness it given some of your comments.

 
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Bronco Billy said:
No I did not.  But you just keep throwing those strawmen up there to reinforce your weak position, which is that he's white and that he's too light, even though he's about the same weight that more than a few very successful RBs have come into the NFL at.  In the meantime you willfully ignore his performance, mentality, and skill set that we witnessed in college.  I take that back, maybe you didn't witness it given some of your comments.
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You might not be aware, but there have been more than a few players with great performance, mentality and skill sets in college that don't make it in the NFL.

 
petekrum said:
You might not be aware, but there have been more than a few players with great performance, mentality and skill sets in college that don't make it in the NFL.
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Wow!  Thanks Captain Obvious!  Did you figure this revelation out all by yourself?  You mean that there isn't a guarantee of performance on every record setting player that has come out of college?  Amazing!  How is that possible?

The point I am making that you so completely miss is that this guy has all the tools to be successful and a resume to back it up, but you are willing to simply ignore all that because of your fixation on factors that are superficial in an effort to thump your chest, bray loudly, and proclaim yourself to have superior wisdom to everyone else in the room.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
That's definitely a fair point.  Most successful backs in that weight range had elite speed.  Not just elite agility, but pure speed.

There are some exceptions though.  McCoy ran a 4.45 40 (pro day advantage as well, so probably around a 4.5 if he'd run at the combine) at the same size.  

Tiki Barber's numbers are hard to find because they didn't really record much back then, but most reports have him at 5'10" and weighing anywhere from 190-200lbs with his 40 time at 4.6.

Not having the elite speed at that size is surely not ideal but it's not necessarily a death knell and we haven't seen what kind of an effect that super high end athleticism in other areas will have.
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I agree with you, it doesn't mean he can't be successful as a RB, it just means he will be bucking the current trend. The other thing to consider with those examples, they had no other position options; they were RBs, nothing else and were a little more thicker/muscular from the waste down. McCaffrey is built like and blessed with the lateral mvmt skills and hands of a prototypical slot WR. I have one of my 10 leagues where I may have a chance to take him, and if I do I will be hoping for a WR to plug into my lineup next season. If he ends up on a team that sees him purely as a RB in the form of Shady and he succeeds, I will gladly return to eat crow.

 
Bronco Billy said:
Wow!  Thanks Captain Obvious!  Did you figure this revelation out all by yourself?  You mean that there isn't a guarantee of performance on every record setting player that has come out of college?  Amazing!  How is that possible?

The point I am making that you so completely miss is that this guy has all the tools to be successful and a resume to back it up, but you are willing to simply ignore all that because of your fixation on factors that are superficial in an effort to thump your chest, bray loudly, and proclaim yourself to have superior wisdom to everyone else in the room.
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I guess we'll just see who has wisdom won't we. As I pretty much said, lots of guys have tools and resumes and don't find success.

 
Rookie_Whisperer said:
Chris Johnson, Javhid Best, and Jamaal Charles would beg to differ.
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There was actually a study conducted on what metric is most likely to predict success for RBs. I thought the 40 beyond a certain point didn't matter and 3-come drill was important.  I will try to find the study

 
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Dr. Octopus said:
He just said he answered his own question. He didn't say it was the correct answer.
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Surprisingly, to me anyway, the real answer is a foot less than a tight end (hodges). :shock:

Eta: didn't mean to be a smartass, but the visual of a player lining up to do the Broad jump and hitting 10.1 inches was funny to me. 

 
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-OZ- said:
Am I missing something?  Why would a team not use him in a similar way to Darren sproles / Danny Woodhead? Great receiver out of the backfield, split him out wide every so often to exploit a mismatch, not a deep receiver but he'll get 7 yards a pop.  

It won't happen but I'd love to see him in Tennessee next to Murray / Henry with Mariota moving the ball efficiently.  

Similarly (and more likely imo), if he falls to Dallas that offense would be fun to watch. 
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While this would drive FF players nuts I could see a McCaffrey/Henry tandem where both of them are on the field at the same time being a mismatch nightmare for slot corners and linebackers. The Titans have a lot of picks too, so if they really like him, they could make this happen.

Zone read option with Mariota and these two guys would be pretty fun to watch.

 
Gandalf said:
There was actually a study conducted on what metric is most likely to predict success for RBs. I thought the 40 beyond a certain point didn't matter and 3-come drill was important.  I will try to find the study
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I will counter with Jordan Howard.  3 cone is not important for a RB at all.  My man didn't start until week 4 last year and still put up 1600 total yards and 7 TDs as a rookie.  BTW, I drafted him everywhere possible late 1st or early 2nd for a reason while passing on Booker/Dixon/Prosise for a reason.  There are bargains every year and overvalued players every year.  

FWIW, Ameer Abdullah and Bishop Sankey also tested very well at their combines.  Those drills are just one thing to factor into overall evaluations.

 
Gandalf said:
Another good read. This one says broad jump is most underrated metric.

http://www.rotowire.com/football/showArticle.htm?id=18838

So what was McCaffrey's broad jump like???

Answered my own question... 10.1"
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Derrick Henry jumping 10'10" at 247 lbs is impressive to me or David Johnson w/ a 10'7" broad and 41.5" vert weighing 224 are the ones who give me pause.  A guy weighing 202 is doing what he should do with a 10'1" broad jump. It's not impressive, just middle of the road for an NFL player of that height/weight.

 
Gandalf said:
There was actually a study conducted on what metric is most likely to predict success for RBs. I thought the 40 beyond a certain point didn't matter and 3-come drill was important.  I will try to find the study
Click to expand...
I have read a lot of different things over the years. The results of these studies are pretty varied as far as what they found to be relevant or not. If there were more consistency of these metrics translating into success, that would be one thing. But there isn't and everyone uses different methodologies to determine what is relevant or not.

I did find this study a year ago which I found to be pretty interesting and I like the methodology behind cross referencing combine data with approximate value data from PFR, which I think AV does a really nice job of identifying a players performance relative to their peers and even across positions.

From the study you will see that the correlation between combine metrics for all positions, the 40 yard dash is the most predictive metric across all positions.

For RB the metrics that are more relevant for players at the RB position are 40 time, weight and the 3 cone drill. None of the other metrics were considered to be relevant for the RB position.

Based on my own personal observations about the combine and the draft, I have had some success with using the 3 cone drill as a guide for players who have quick change of direction skills, which is very important for a RB to have. The drill also favors players who can use lower pad level technique to help them execute the drill more quickly. This is another important skill for a RB to have. Paying attention to the drill (which is actually more relevant for defensive end players than RB) has helped me identify some good under the radar players at times and also to avoid some other players who also did not look to have good change of direction abilities when I watch them play.

That said there have been RB with really bad 3 cone times who have been very successful NFL RB. So it isn't a hard/fast rule at all. There are too many exceptions to put too much stock in any particular drill result. There have also been some RB that people might consider to be relatively slow who have been successful at the RB as well. The metrics do not tell the whole story.

The NFL is likely better at using this information in their decision making process than we are. They have more resources committed to it and have been doing it longer as well. They pretty much all say that the metrics are only used to compare traits that are seen of the player in games. So if a measurement does not match what the player does on the field, that is cause for more investigation I think, but whatever the player timed that particular day is just one piece of a much larger puzzle.

Once the NFL drafts these guys I think you should put anything combine related aside. Because that data is already baked into the draft position.

If you look at the second to last graph in the article above, you see that NFL draft position is about twice as predictive as the combine measurements in the model across the board.

 
Rookie_Whisperer said:
Derrick Henry jumping 10'10" at 247 lbs is impressive to me or David Johnson w/ a 10'7" broad and 41.5" vert weighing 224 are the ones who give me pause.  A guy weighing 202 is doing what he should do with a 10'1" broad jump. It's not impressive, just middle of the road for an NFL player of that height/weight.
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So based on your posts I get the sense you won't be drafting McCaffrey. ?

 
Biabreakable said:
I have read a lot of different things over the years. The results of these studies are pretty varied as far as what they found to be relevant or not. If there were more consistency of these metrics translating into success, that would be one thing. But there isn't and everyone uses different methodologies to determine what is relevant or not.

I did find this study a year ago which I found to be pretty interesting and I like the methodology behind cross referencing combine data with approximate value data from PFR, which I think AV does a really nice job of identifying a players performance relative to their peers and even across positions.

From the study you will see that the correlation between combine metrics for all positions, the 40 yard dash is the most predictive metric across all positions.

For RB the metrics that are more relevant for players at the RB position are 40 time, weight and the 3 cone drill. None of the other metrics were considered to be relevant for the RB position.

Based on my own personal observations about the combine and the draft, I have had some success with using the 3 cone drill as a guide for players who have quick change of direction skills, which is very important for a RB to have. The drill also favors players who can use lower pad level technique to help them execute the drill more quickly. This is another important skill for a RB to have. Paying attention to the drill (which is actually more relevant for defensive end players than RB) has helped me identify some good under the radar players at times and also to avoid some other players who also did not look to have good change of direction abilities when I watch them play.

That said there have been RB with really bad 3 cone times who have been very successful NFL RB. So it isn't a hard/fast rule at all. There are too many exceptions to put too much stock in any particular drill result. There have also been some RB that people might consider to be relatively slow who have been successful at the RB as well. The metrics do not tell the whole story.

The NFL is likely better at using this information in their decision making process than we are. They have more resources committed to it and have been doing it longer as well. They pretty much all say that the metrics are only used to compare traits that are seen of the player in games. So if a measurement does not match what the player does on the field, that is cause for more investigation I think, but whatever the player timed that particular day is just one piece of a much larger puzzle.

Once the NFL drafts these guys I think you should put anything combine related aside. Because that data is already baked into the draft position.

If you look at the second to last graph in the article above, you see that NFL draft position is about twice as predictive as the combine measurements in the model across the board.
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This is great stuff. Thanks!

 
Metrics and game tape are not proof of how good or bad a player will be in the NFL, See Tom Brady Combine.  They're just used as inputs to guess at how good a player will be.  Plenty of people love McCaffrey because of his pedigree, production on the field, and his 3-cone time.  Plenty of people don't like McCaffrey as a prospect because he's thinner than most successful RBs and he's white.

I'm not sure how many people in either camp have watched a decent amount of film on him, but he seems to be a pretty solid RB to me.  He makes very quick changes of direction and shows a level of patience that Leveon Bell would be proud of.  I'm not saying McCaffrey is Bell 2.0, don't be crazy. I'm just saying that he shows good patience for letting blocks develop, and Bell is the best example of that.  Also, McCaffrey 1 on 1 in space is very good.  He's able to make subtle moves to make defenders miss and break long runs.  He also was used between the tackles much more than people assume at Stanford.  They used him as a feature back, and he ran right up the gut time and again.  Different than Kamara who broke most of his runs to the outside.  McCaffrey also shows good hands and solid route running abilities.  He can split out wide and if matched against a linebacker, he's gold.  Also, he's very good at getting north and south when he sees a hole or right after a catch.

Now, the bad.  He's smaller than ideal.  If a defender gets a good grip, he's going down.  He rarely can run through a tackle, he has to avoid contact (which he does well) or make the tackle a glancing blow in order to get away.  If defenders get into the backfield quickly, he sometimes loses more yards trying to get away.  In pass protection, he needs to improve.  He makes some solid blocks, but then he identifies the wrong pickup and the QB gets hit.  Some of that is on the QB, he should identify the blitz, but McCaffrey is the last line of defense and should be there to cause disruption.  McCaffrey is also thinner than ideal.  It hasn't caused many serious injuries yet, but the players in the NFL are bigger, stronger, and faster.  The hits could pile up.  

McCaffrey is like almost every NFL prospect.  He's got positives and negatives.  People argue pretty ferociously about him, but the overall consensus is that in Non-ppr, he's a top 5 guy.  Some have him as their top player or out of the top 10, but the average is about 3-7.  He's a little smaller than ideal, has good (not great) hands, can't block all that well, can break any play for a long TD, can get bogged down in the line, and can squirt through going full speed.  He is a very difficult player to peg (imo) and his stock will depend 100% on where he lands.  I think he can be an every-down back in the NFL (Some definitely disagree).  He's been the bell cow for a team that used him a ton the past couple years and he did well inside the tackles.  Obviously only time will tell how good he ends up being, and I highly recommend you watch the game tape before making a judgement on him (positive or negative), and try to do it with an open mind if you can.  He might be worse than you thought, or better, but don't just follow what other reviews have said about him.

http://draftbreakdown.com/players/christian-mccaffrey/

 
Why is anyone talking about him being too small? 

CMC: 5'11" 202lbs BMI: 28.2

Lesean McCoy: 5'10" 198lbs BMI: 28.4

AP: 6'1" 217lbs BMI: 28.6

Forte: 6'2" 222lbs BMI: 28.5

Charles: 6'1" 200lbs BMI: 26.4

An NFL RB is very very likely to get injured  regardless of what his BMI is. I've been critical of him and his running abilities but this crazy acceptance that he is "too small" or "thin" seems crazy to me. Sure if he was 5'9" 170 lbs there should be worries but that's not the case. And I don't think there has been ever been a feature back that small but there's a list of Pro Bowlers above who show McCafferys BMI is fine. 

It's not like being a bigger back some how prevents injuries doesn't make sense. And for draft/FF purposes it makes even less sense. Look a Lev Bell. He's never played a full season and just had surgery again but he's still ranked in the top 3 RBs. "But he has proven production" or course that's why he's ranked that high but if anyone likes his ability why knock him because he MIGHT have injury issues when the guy that DOES have injury issues is still top 3? Assuming that McCafferys running skill set is liked.

 
April Fools joke. Deleting because it's no longer April 1st. 

 
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Looking at RBs who entered the NFL since 2000 with a low BMI (below 28.5) and turned out to be somewhat successful, they basically fall into 3 categories: superfast (4.40 or better 40 time: CJ2K, McFadden, Spiller, Bush, Charles, T Coleman), tall but not underweight (215+ pounds: J Starks, Peterson, Forte, R Grant), and LeSean McCoy (is LeSean McCoy: LeSean McCoy). Here is how McCaffrey stacks up on those measurables:

Code: 
BMI     Name                 Ht      Wt     40
27.5    Chris Johnson        71.0    197    4.24
27.6    C.J. Spiller         70.6    196    4.37
27.6    Darren McFadden      73.3    211    4.33
27.9    Jamaal Charles       71.0    200    4.38
27.9    James Starks         74.1    218    4.50
28.0    Christian McCaffrey  71.3    202    4.48
28.1    LeSean McCoy         70.4    198    4.50
28.1    Reggie Bush          70.9    201    4.37
28.2    Adrian Peterson      73.5    217    4.41
28.3    Ryan Grant           73.1    215    4.43
28.3    Matt Forte           73.4    217    4.46
28.4    Tevin Coleman        71.4    206    4.40
McCoy and Starks are the only two who ran slower than McCaffrey.

Not a dealbreaker, especially with the Riddick/Woodhead/Sproles role as a fallback, but definitely a concern.

 
Borden said:
Why is anyone talking about him being too small? 

CMC: 5'11" 202lbs BMI: 28.2

Lesean McCoy: 5'10" 198lbs BMI: 28.4

AP: 6'1" 217lbs BMI: 28.6

Forte: 6'2" 222lbs BMI: 28.5

Charles: 6'1" 200lbs BMI: 26.4

An NFL RB is very very likely to get injured  regardless of what his BMI is. I've been critical of him and his running abilities but this crazy acceptance that he is "too small" or "thin" seems crazy to me. Sure if he was 5'9" 170 lbs there should be worries but that's not the case. And I don't think there has been ever been a feature back that small but there's a list of Pro Bowlers above who show McCafferys BMI is fine. 

It's not like being a bigger back some how prevents injuries doesn't make sense. And for draft/FF purposes it makes even less sense. Look a Lev Bell. He's never played a full season and just had surgery again but he's still ranked in the top 3 RBs. "But he has proven production" or course that's why he's ranked that high but if anyone likes his ability why knock him because he MIGHT have injury issues when the guy that DOES have injury issues is still top 3? Assuming that McCafferys running skill set is liked.
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Exactly. I've been trying to figure that out too.  And he ran fine between the tackles at Stanford. I think its mistaken group think. Being contrarian when my intuition tells me otherwise has always served me well. I'm drafting McCaffrey maybe as early as 1.02.

 
Gandalf said:
Exactly. I've been trying to figure that out too.  And he ran fine between the tackles at Stanford. I think its mistaken group think. Being contrarian when my intuition tells me otherwise has always served me well. I'm drafting McCaffrey maybe as early as 1.02.
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Landing spot will be huge. There are 4 RBs and 2-3 WRs that can all be nearly interchangeable in dynasty depending on which team they land on. The lines between this years prospects are pretty blurry and there is no Zeke, AJ Green type prospect that checks every box. 

 
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Peter Schrager spoke to "multiple" NFL executives who believe Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey will be drafted in the top 10.




That's news. McCaffrey is picking up steam as the best running back in this class as questions quiet about his size and ability to be a primary running back. It makes sense, since McCaffrey was workhorse in a "pro style" offense at Stanford. The team that makes the most sense in the top 10 is the Panthers at No. 8.

 
 
Source: Peter Schrager on Twitter 
Apr 6 - 10:43 AM





 
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MTS notebook: Jamal Adams is top prospect in 2017 NFL Draft

Excerpt:

Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey: After watching McCaffrey on tape, studying his combine workout and his pro day, I really believe he could be a full-time wide receiver in the NFL. He is a precise route runner and he's very sudden at the top of his routes. He has outstanding hands (gene pool doesn't hurt) and he tracks the ball naturally. We've been debating how many carries he can handle at the professional level, but there has to be at least a few teams considering making him a full-time receiver. He could be a dominant slot receiver, and I think he could eventually hold his own outside on the perimeter as well.
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Faust said:
MTS notebook: Jamal Adams is top prospect in 2017 NFL Draft

Excerpt:

Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey: After watching McCaffrey on tape, studying his combine workout and his pro day, I really believe he could be a full-time wide receiver in the NFL. He is a precise route runner and he's very sudden at the top of his routes. He has outstanding hands (gene pool doesn't hurt) and he tracks the ball naturally. We've been debating how many carries he can handle at the professional level, but there has to be at least a few teams considering making him a full-time receiver. He could be a dominant slot receiver, and I think he could eventually hold his own outside on the perimeter as well.
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This is exactly what would scare me out of taking him as a top 5 rookie pick. You don't use early first round rookie picks (in fantasy leagues) on guys being converted to slot receivers. 

 
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Boone22 said:
This is exactly what would scare me out of taking him as a top 5 rookie pick. You don't use early first round rookie picks (in fantasy leagues) on guys being converted to slot receivers. 
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Highly doubtful an NFL team is drafting him in the 1st round if they envision him as a slot WR.  He may become that, but the team who invests a top 20 pick in him isn't going into it with the goal of converting him to a slot role.

 
Boone22 said:
This is exactly what would scare me out of taking him as a top 5 rookie pick. You don't use early first round rookie picks (in fantasy leagues) on guys being converted to slot receivers. 
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Agreed, but the comfort for me would be that NFL teams don't burn top 20 picks on players they'd like to convert to slot receivers either.  So if he's top 20 in the NFL draft (or 1st round for that matter), then I think odds are slim to none that his team has intentions of attempting to convert him.

 
ILUVBEER99 said:
Highly doubtful an NFL team is drafting him in the 1st round if they envision him as a slot WR.  He may become that, but the team who invests a top 20 pick in him isn't going into it with the goal of converting him to a slot role.
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I should've just waited 5 seconds. :lol:   Almost verbatim what I think as well.

 
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