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RB Damien Williams, ATL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter buddhacwru
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DropKick
Footballguy
I can see your rationale but I may not have done it for Fuller (injury, etc.). I'm going to roll the dice and see if his value rises if he goes into the season as a projected starter.mikel2014 said:
I would be looking to package Williams/Sutton (or a comparable player) for an upgrade at WR or high rookie pick. We have several teams that are RB poor.
bostonfred
Footballguy
I don't think fresh legs theory applies here for the following reasons
1) He's played 5 games against 4 playoff teams that were playing well defensively (the ravens chargers, seahawks and colts).
2) His numbers were virtually identical to hunt in these games.
3) Multiple backs have performed at a high level in this offense.
Fresh legs theory suggests that he "only did well because he had fresh legs". But i think the more meaningful theory here is "chiefs starter theory" which suggests that anyone with two working legs will be a fantasy stud if given the keys to the kc backfield.
The relevant question is whether he's the starter next year.
The last example of kc handling their backfield was in 2015, when ware and west were successful to end the season, and they were brought back as the starter and CoP. In 2016, ware started well but cooled off. The chiefs drafted hunt the following off season but ware eas the presumptive starter until he got hurt.
So there's some precedent that they'd stick with a guy who played well to end the season - and that he'd be a stud if they stuck with him, regardless of fresh legs.
1) He's played 5 games against 4 playoff teams that were playing well defensively (the ravens chargers, seahawks and colts).
2) His numbers were virtually identical to hunt in these games.
3) Multiple backs have performed at a high level in this offense.
Fresh legs theory suggests that he "only did well because he had fresh legs". But i think the more meaningful theory here is "chiefs starter theory" which suggests that anyone with two working legs will be a fantasy stud if given the keys to the kc backfield.
The relevant question is whether he's the starter next year.
The last example of kc handling their backfield was in 2015, when ware and west were successful to end the season, and they were brought back as the starter and CoP. In 2016, ware started well but cooled off. The chiefs drafted hunt the following off season but ware eas the presumptive starter until he got hurt.
So there's some precedent that they'd stick with a guy who played well to end the season - and that he'd be a stud if they stuck with him, regardless of fresh legs.
I'd go through each one of your points but just not seeing anything here that disputes that fresh legged was a huge reason for his success. Yes any RB who is the starter for the Chiefs will do well, the question is for how long before law of diminishing returns?
My guess is this is Kenyan Drake of 2017 all over again, a team which Williams was enjoying some success on as well last year when he was fresh legged. Fools gold if you are investing in Williams thinking this is who he is for a full season.
To me his main value is he catches passes which will make him viable player as part of a RBBC. I would be stunned if he's anything remotely like a RB1 or nearly as productive over a season as Hunt.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Forgive me if this has been covered already, but is there any sense out there of what kind of a guy Williams is? Is he a knucklehead? Good teammate? Going to get caught beating a woman?
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Williams had a troubled past and was suspended twice and then let go at Oklahoma. Those issues are largely why he wasn't drafted in 2013.
I don't know the guy so can't say one way or the other what kind of person he is now, but as a UFA he has had to earn his place on a team every step of the way.
I was recently reading where the Chiefs were looking at Williams in their back up group of RB free agents they could bring in, and they looked at him and thought he could be a tier one RB if needed. That is what stood out about him among the other choices and why they signed him.
Williams left the college game with a 5.2 APC, he has a 5.1 as a Chief (some lean years at Miami).
Funny thing is Kareem Hunt was given his shot because of an injury to Spencer Ware, now Williams gets his shot because of Hunts situation.
Be hard pressed to find a franchise that has used my RB;s than the Chiefs.
Funny thing is Kareem Hunt was given his shot because of an injury to Spencer Ware, now Williams gets his shot because of Hunts situation.
Be hard pressed to find a franchise that has used my RB;s than the Chiefs.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Here's a list of relevant quotes about damien williams, starting with the one you just mentionedBiabreakable said:
“He was in our (backup) stack, and I’m like, this guy isn’t (a backup), he’s a borderline (situational starter),” Veach said. “This guy is pretty good.”
That one was this summer - the gm saying they were looking for a backup and thought he was a borderline starter. I think that's a pretty good description of what they should have expected, and he's exceeded those expectations.
"I knew he had this in him ever since training camp," quarterback Patrick Mahomes said. "You could see the talent. You could see the ability to catch out of the backfield but at the same time run in between the tackles. He's stepped up these last few weeks."
"Not only can he catch the ball but he can pick up the blitz and we also know what's going to take place when he carries the ball between the tackles," offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy said. "Damien is who we thought he was when we saw him on tape. "
"I thought we'd get a pretty good performance out of him and good effort," coach Andy Reid said. "It probably was even a step above that... That kid has done a real good job. We weren't quite sure what to expect. He just loves to play."
“He could easily just have hung his head and pouted or whatever,” Reid said before the Chargers game. “He’s got great energy and he just keeps bringing it every day. Then he had a chance in the last couple of weeks, and he’s done a nice job with that. Powerful, powerful kid. I think he’s more familiar with the offense now.”
(Talking about the first game after hunt was released and ware got the start.)
During the (playoff vs colts) win, Reid went for it on fourth down three times with running back Damien Williams and converted on all three occasions.
“He did a heck of a job in Miami,” offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy said recently. “Our scouting department has always kept an eye on him and knew all about him. Kid was a talented kid, he is who he is. He’s adjusted well, and he’s a part of the team.”
“They’re different, but they’re similar in a way as far as they both get downhill, they can both run low behind their pads and definitely very physical,” said Patriots defensive end Trey Flowers, who had seven tackles in the first meeting. “Damien Williams, he’s able to get to the edge, able to cut the ball into the defense and lower his pads.”
“They might do a couple things a little bit different, but ultimately they’re still able to run the ball. Damien Williams has come in and done a real good job for them,” Pats linebacker Dont’a Hightower said. “I don’t know how many yards he’s been averaging, but he’s been toting the ball. He’s been doing a great job. They’re still able to run, to do the play-action to the RPOs and to do all this stuff in their offense.
“He’s doing good things for that offense. He’s a good back. He was a good back in Miami,” said Pats linebacker Elandon Roberts. “He got his opportunity now and look at what he’s doing. He’s balling.”
I think everybody seems to be saying the same thing - kc liked his running and receiving ability and projected him as a borderline starter, and he is exceeding their expectations and they now trust him enough to use him on every down including 3 fourth downs last week, all converted against the colts in the playoffs.
And that was after the chiefs rewarded his good play by signing him to an extension.
Does that mean they won't bring in any other warm bodies? Of course not. Does that make it a priority to sign or draft a big name? I don't know. They seem pretty happy with him right now.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
franchise history? what an absurd reference. More RB, or substantially used more rbs?
However, yes, I would say the patriots would. they seem to use 3 or 4 every season. Chiefs had Jamaal Charles and only Jamaal Charles for a very long time.
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I can think of...30...Chief RB's starting with Abner Haynes in that 1960 Dallas Texan year how many ya got for the teams you mentioned, guys who have started?
Mike Garrett
Jamaal Charles
Abner Haynes
Kareem Hunt
Tony Reed
Christian Okoye
Larry Johnson
Priest Holmes
Joe Delaney
The 1000 yard rushers.
I was talking about how many starters in franchise history, not different ones in a game.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I know it has been covered at length, but I still can't buy this narrative. They moved up to draft Hunt, who they clearly saw something in, and as we know lived up to it (on the field). All the hype on him prior to the Ware injury suggested he was going to be the starter anyway, and I drafted him everywhere. I was fully expecting him to start ahead of Ware, but the injury then cemented the counter opinion that Hunt only became the starter because of the injury. I just don't buy it. I'm not trying to single you out, though, lots of people have said the same thing.ZenoRazon said:
2016 Ware had over 1300 yards rushing/receiving, a 4.3 APR, hard to think the Chiefs weren't happy with that.
But, we really don't know for sure what was in the works. Hard to imagine a guy with over 1300yards one season sitting the next.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I mean I don't think they were necessarily unhappy with him, though they did cut him since then. But they did move up to draft Hunt, and even if they liked Ware they may have taken Hunt because of what they perceived as great value, and then he blew up camp. Nothing but rave reviews and how they were installing the whole offense with him and throwing the kitchen sink at him. Maybe Ware would have started the first couple weeks, but I just don't see the injury as the determining factor, other than the timing. No big deal, though. I am bitter Hunt ####ed up.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
you need to be more specific. the original question you posed you never specified it had to be a 1000 yard rusher and a starter. all you said was someone would be hard pressed to find a franchise with more RBs than the chiefs. suddenly its 1000 yard starters only.
Not worth having a discussion if the goal posts keep being moved. It's not a debate worth winning regardless.
i said this....
Be hard pressed to find a franchise that has used more RB;s than the Chiefs.
I said nothing about 1000 rushers, and did assume starters was understood.
I keep track of this sort of thing and actually have a list and keep adding to it, that Chiefs list is a long one, actually the longest.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
6 games (5 starts) 602 yards 10 touchdowns with 28 receptions for the ppr types. He did this against 5 playoff teams. The other game against the raiders week 17 was the worst of the bunch.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
FWIW I was expecting a time share between Hunt and Ware that Hunt would eventually win the starting job, by the middle of his rookie season.
I did expect Ware to start the season as Hunt had some pass protection issues to work on while Ware was a returning veteran. I still thought Hunts overall skill set was greater than Wares, although Ware is a good RB at times when healthy.
Perhaps some were higher on Ware than I have been.
I agree that the injury to Ware is part of the reason why Hunt got to start right away as a rookie. I agree with you that this isn't the only reason. Hunt is a good RB. I think Hiunt has a better overall skillset than Ware or Williams.
Williams has played his best football for KC though and he is likely a better blocker than Ware or Hunt. Williams can play TE if needed. He is very good at blocking.
socrates
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
beef
Footballguy
Of course it is, Veach. Damien and Darrel are the only 2019 contracted RBs on your roster.
Gandalf
Footballguy
djjosee
Footballguy
DAMIEN WILLIAMSRB, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Chiefs GM Brett Veach said the starting running back job is "Damien Williams' to lose."
The Chiefs are entering free agency and the NFL Draft with Williams sitting at the top of the depth chart, but the team will almost assuredly add more competition. A team captain of "RB doesn't matter", Williams entered the season as a depth piece but broke out as the lead back late in the season while replacing Kareem Hunt. For fantasy purposes, Williams has upside playing in this explosive upside, but it's by no means a lock that he is the starter, despite the GM's comments. However, it helps that Williams just signed a contract extension last December.
SOURCE: Brooke Pryor on Twitter
Feb 28, 2019, 9:43 PM
Chiefs GM Brett Veach said the starting running back job is "Damien Williams' to lose."
The Chiefs are entering free agency and the NFL Draft with Williams sitting at the top of the depth chart, but the team will almost assuredly add more competition. A team captain of "RB doesn't matter", Williams entered the season as a depth piece but broke out as the lead back late in the season while replacing Kareem Hunt. For fantasy purposes, Williams has upside playing in this explosive upside, but it's by no means a lock that he is the starter, despite the GM's comments. However, it helps that Williams just signed a contract extension last December.
SOURCE: Brooke Pryor on Twitter
Feb 28, 2019, 9:43 PM
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
This is one of those situation where I would not be surprised either way - I'll lean towards Williams at least starting the season as the lead RB but if the Chiefs brought in serious competition it would be far from surprising.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Do they let ware walk?
The Frankman
Footballguy
If we believe in the "RBs don't matter" narrative, sure. They have Darrell Williams who can be a battering ram and if they want they can spend a pick late on a RB. Or sign one cheap.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Gandalf
Footballguy
grateful zed
Footballguy
ware knows the system, pay him as a backup.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
bostonfred
Footballguy
His price will go way up or down in the next two months. If the chiefs don't bring in serious competition he will be a redraft second round pick and you might not be able to buy him for a random 2020 first anymore.
I have seen him go as high as an early first plus, and as low as a second. Right now he's worth about a late first to an interested buyer but not every league has an interested buyer willing to give a first and not every league has a motivated seller looking to get out for a second. Personally i wouldn't give an early first for him, because as great as his upside is, the top first round picks will have fairly high upside too and will all be younger than he is. I wouldn't trade him for a second, because it's highly unlikely you find someone in the second with remotely similar upside, and he's worth a second even if he's relegated to a high upside backup role before he plays another snap.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I have turned down an offer of two 2nds, and I turned down 1.08 as an offer for Williams. If they bring in serious competition in the draft or FA (not sure who that would be), then I will have missed my window and lost some potential value. I own him in 3 leagues and got him off waivers for free* when Hunt got busted. But I would rather lose a marginal to moderate amount of potential value (like the 1.08) than watch him hold down the lead back role on my opponent's roster while I roll the dice with a late 1st.
Put another way, I see the risk of holding him and being wrong as less significant than the upside of being right about him.
He looked *great* in that offense last year and has perhaps turned a corner in his career. I don't see KC reaching for any of these "top" RBs in this draft. They have bigger needs early. I think a 3rd or 4th round RB is in play, but I feel comfortable gambling that Williams will maintain the lead role over whoeever that would be. And if I'm wrong I don't mind so much.
I'm not even sure I'd accept the 1.01 for him in this draft. If someone offered what I would project as an early 2020 pick then yeah I'd probably be put to a tough decision on him.
Put another way, I see the risk of holding him and being wrong as less significant than the upside of being right about him.
He looked *great* in that offense last year and has perhaps turned a corner in his career. I don't see KC reaching for any of these "top" RBs in this draft. They have bigger needs early. I think a 3rd or 4th round RB is in play, but I feel comfortable gambling that Williams will maintain the lead role over whoeever that would be. And if I'm wrong I don't mind so much.
I'm not even sure I'd accept the 1.01 for him in this draft. If someone offered what I would project as an early 2020 pick then yeah I'd probably be put to a tough decision on him.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
even if KC don't replace him this off season, we know its coming in the next one, If you hold him and get lucky that they don't add a rookie this year, you should sell IMO. everyone thought they were sitting on a gold mine with Spencer Ware and here we are....
Biabreakable
Footballguy
As a seller 1.08 is around where I start getting interested in possibly moving Williams. Too much upside for the 2019 season to sell him for less than that.
As a buyer I wouldn't want to pay more than that. So I agree with barackdhouse that this is about what he is worth right now in rookie picks.
I noticed Mike Clay has Williams ranked 106 overall which is lower than what I think his actual value is, just based on many players Clay has ranked ahead of Williams who I would not take over him.
As a buyer I wouldn't want to pay more than that. So I agree with barackdhouse that this is about what he is worth right now in rookie picks.
I noticed Mike Clay has Williams ranked 106 overall which is lower than what I think his actual value is, just based on many players Clay has ranked ahead of Williams who I would not take over him.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I definitely agree it could only be one more year. I don't mind renting an elite RB1 for one year. I'd rather hold and play for the ship. Fully agree, though, that maximum value gain would be to move him this year if he is still the 1. I am sure more offers will come in after the draft if it plays out that way.
I've never been on the Ware train. I was fully on Hunt before Ware got hurt. And when everyone bid up for Ware (when Hunt got busted), I got Williams for close to free. Though I admit Ware was my first choice then, too. I like Ware, actually, I'm just not convinced Reid does, much.
DropKick
Footballguy
KC almost has to bring in somebody at the position even if that is later in the draft or through other means. I can see the Chiefs targeting another track star even if that's a guy who sees limited touches. A best case scenario for owners is someone considered more as depth than heir apparent. Williams (27) could lead that backfield for a year or even two. As such, he has excellent value to a win now team. I can also see flipping him for a younger asset.
Overall, Williams might have the most volatile value of anyone going into the draft.
Overall, Williams might have the most volatile value of anyone going into the draft.
Do you truly think there's a large difference between, say, 1.08 and 2.06 in this rookie draft?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Maybe not a huge difference, but enough. I simply won't trade him for a 2.04. I'd rather take the chance he helps me win in 2019 than to do that.
ETA: Also, it's really the 2.05 because this league awards the 1.13 (12 team league) to the toilet bowl winner.
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Personally, I think the time to get a 1st for Williams was before they signed Hyde. His value will fall further when they draft a RB in the 3rd or 4th round.
He's squarely a 2nd in my mind right now, and that may fall to a later 2nd in a month.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
In reality that may be true but in perceived value in the fantasy world I think it does change his value and the amount will vary greatly.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Only to those who don't know what the hell they are doing. Hyde's 3.3 ypc last year and 3.9 the year before tells me he's a bum.
How many of those seasons were playing for an Andy Reid offense? What was Damien Williams' ypc when he was playing for a non-Andy Reid offense?
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