RB David Montgomery, DET (1 Viewer)

[ratbast]

As a Monty owner, the contract and landing spot are solid. Swift and a bad D curb my enthusiasm.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Footballguys Reaction - What Montgomery To Detroit Means

David Montgomery has found a new home with the Detroit Lions. Montgomery is now expected to take over for former incumbent Jamaal Williams as the early down running back on a team that ranked fifth in points per game in 2022. Lions head coach Dan Campbell just got himself a shiny new workhorse.

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CONTRACT TERMS

David Montgomery signed with the Detroit Lions on a three-year deal worth $18 million with $11 million guaranteed.

FANTASY IMPACT

David Montgomery has just stepped in as the presumed early-down workhorse for the Detroit Lions. He is no stranger to early-down work, as he spent the last four years of his career averaging 229 rush attempts per year for the Chicago Bears.

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Montgomery shouldn't have to worry about being overly efficient in Detroit. In 2022, Williams was the definition of an early-down grinder, carrying the ball 262 times while averaging 4.1 yards per attempt. As inefficient as Williams was, the Lions kept on feeding him. In comparison, a much younger Montgomery averaged four yards per carry behind a seemingly worse Bears offensive line and offense.

Montgomery finished as RB26 in fantasy points per game in 2022, which would've classified him as an RB3 on most fantasy rosters. Meanwhile, an older and less agile Williams finished as RB18 in fantasy points per game. An elevated fantasy floor can be expected for Montgomery in 2023. He likely won't reach RB1 status, but he should be bumped up rankings across all formats. Montgomery is an underrated receiver. However, expect that most of Montgomery's fantasy value will be created through carries rather than receptions.

How this affects D'Andre Swift is somewhat shrouded in mystery. To the dismay of many fantasy managers, Swift seemed to be on the outs in 2022. A far more efficient player than Williams, he seemed not to fit the grinder culture that Dan Campbell exuded upon the team. In 2023, Swift will carry a base salary of $1,774,397. He's certainly a player the Lions could afford to cut or trade. Judging by the history of the player and ball club, it seems like it would be in the best interest of both parties to move on from each other.

FANTASY FALLOUT

As for Detroit, Jamaal Williams is all but gone. He's sure to land on his feet for one of the many teams needing a reliable early-down running back.

For now, Montgomery's departure leaves former Virginia Tech running back and fantasy handcuff extraordinaire Khalil Herbert as the unrivaled RB1 for the Bears. Dynasty managers are rejoicing in the streets, and they should be for a good reason. Herbert has always impressed with the limited opportunity he's been given over the past two years. In 2022, Herbert was ranked seventh in yards per touch. He's a more than capable runner with efficient footwork and a physical profile more than qualified to shoulder 230-plus attempts. The Herbert faithful will be closely watching the remainder of the offseason in hopes that the Bears do not make any other significant additions to their backfield.

Behind Herbert is former Baylor running back Trestan Ebner, along with newly acquired Travis Homer. Ebner had performed well during the 2022 preseason. He was, however, relegated to only 24 carries and two receptions during 2022. Ebner is an athletic player who scored as an upper percentile athlete with an 89th percentile speed score, which shows on tape. He is slighter than desired by most NFL coaches to shoulder a heavy load but could be a dark horse as the Bears' designated receiving back in 2023. He makes for a very cheap addition in Dynasty formats.

Homer offers little fantasy value and should be disregarded as a fantasy asset.

STOCK WATCH

David Montgomery’s value should see a marginal bump through significant rushing volume and as the designated goal-line running back for the Chicago Bears. Williams scored 17 rushing touchdowns last year. Fourteen came on 28 attempts from inside the opponent’s five-yard line. While anticipating Montgomery will come close to 17 touchdowns is unrealistic, it’s safe to say his bread and butter will be made from the same portion of the field.

 

[menobrown]

Montgomery so far has got the best contract of a RB who made it to UFA and it's not great. Brutal market for the RB's.

Here is the real breakdown:

$8.75m fully guaranteed

This is how the Lions would view his contract, the year one pay includes the guaranteed portion of his 2024 salary(which is part of that $8.75M)

One year for $8.75m with about $30k per game bonus (If they cut him this would total amount he would have been paid)
Two years for $11M with the per game bonus (unless he's awful he should see this since it only costs them an extra $2.25m to keep him)

After 2 year all guarantees would be paid out.

3 years for $16.5M with the per game bonus

 

[spurs44]

As a Monty owner, the contract and landing spot are solid. Swift and a bad D curb my enthusiasm.

Takes over Williams role. Lions fifth in the league in scoring versus staying with the Bears with a running QB. Bump Monty...

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Caps both of Swift and Montgomery ceilings but they can both still be contributors to a lineup. Each becomes a top 12 guy if the other guy misses time.

 

[spurs44]

Caps both of Swift and Montgomery ceilings but they can both still be contributors to a lineup. Each becomes a top 12 guy if the other guy misses time.

I that so too but I'm hearing now that he'll be the alpha. We'll see.

 

[Jakey]

DM looked great to me last year. I think it was a great pickup if they saved $ versus keeping Williams.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

DM looked great to me last year. I think it was a great pickup if they saved $ versus keeping Williams.

Williams signed for less than Montgomery.

 

[kface]

As an owner DM has always been that guy who everyone consistently waits for someone to take his job from him.

 

[spurs44]

As an owner DM has always been that guy who everyone consistently waits for someone to take his job from him.

I own him as well. I think this was a very good signing.

 

[grateful zed]

That contract seems high

 

[ratbast]

That contract seems high

Workhorse.

 

[Faust]

Taylor Decker: Lions RB David Montgomery Has 'Productive Paranoia'

 

[zamboni]

It was a good run.

 

[Ilov80s]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

 

[foxco]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

 

[Ilov80s]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

 

[Faust]

Lions RB David Montgomery says he feels refreshed by greater expectations in Detroit: 'I like to compete'

 

[jon_mx]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

The Lions had a ridiculous number of longer plays which were stopped at the one.

 

[BobbyLayne]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

 

[Ilov80s]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

The Lions had a ridiculous number of longer plays which were stopped at the one.

Exactly, no way that repeats

 

[Ilov80s]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

 

[menobrown]

I don't know how to sort from closer but Jamaal Williams had 15 more carries inside the 5 yard line then any other RB in the league. It was so much more then anyone else that he was 2 carries away from matching the total of the RB's who had the second and third most.

Jamaal got 8.5 times as many carries inside the 5 yard line as Swift, who of course is better built for goal line usage then Gibbs.

This all bodes well IMO for Monty considering it's the same playcaller and QB. I'm not predicting the same kind of TD totals of course or that much of a gap vs the other RB's in the league in goal line usage, but if I had to put my money on the RB who will lead the league in carries inside the 5 I'd put it on Montgomery.

 

[BobbyLayne]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

 

[Ilov80s]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

I know I am a homer but I think I have Amon Ra as my WR 5 or 6 this year. Debating between him and AJ Brown.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

I know I am a homer but I think I have Amon Ra as my WR 5 or 6 this year. Debating between him and AJ Brown.

I have both on one team and AJB on another.

I have AJB as a tier higher. I love them both, but given the choice I’d take AJB.

I personal preference.

 

[Ilov80s]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

I know I am a homer but I think I have Amon Ra as my WR 5 or 6 this year. Debating between him and AJ Brown.

I have both on one team and AJB on another.

I have AJB as a tier higher. I love them both, but given the choice I’d take AJB.

I personal preference.

I meant for redraft...not sure exactly how I would shake out dynasty.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

I know I am a homer but I think I have Amon Ra as my WR 5 or 6 this year. Debating between him and AJ Brown.

I have both on one team and AJB on another.

I have AJB as a tier higher. I love them both, but given the choice I’d take AJB.

I personal preference.

I meant for redraft...not sure exactly how I would shake out dynasty.

I have it the same for both. One of those rare occasions.

 

[BobbyLayne]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

I know I am a homer but I think I have Amon Ra as my WR 5 or 6 this year. Debating between him and AJ Brown.

I have both on one team and AJB on another.

I have AJB as a tier higher. I love them both, but given the choice I’d take AJB.

I personal preference.

I meant for redraft...not sure exactly how I would shake out dynasty.

I have Brown and Brown right next to each other in redraft rankings - WR8/9

JJ-Chase-Kupp-Hill Rd 1, Lamb-Diggs-Adams & the Browns Rd 2

we're in the wrong thread for this, though

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Adams

There’s trouble in paradise for Adams right now. He’s likely on the move - probably an upgrade wherever he lands.

 

[travdogg]

I'm probably gonna be the low man on Montgomery this season. I have him as a middling RB3, with a lower floor than he seems to be getting credit for.

I'm a Bears homer, and honestly outside of a half season stretch in 2020, Montgomery has never really impressed. He has some highlight runs where he breaks 3-4 tackles, to gain like 8 yards, and people I think get the wrong idea that he's making the most of a bad situation. The truth is, despite Justin Fields sack numbers (most of which were on him, he just never gives up on plays) the Bears OL was an above average unit. Those plays where Monty would break 3-4 tackles were often followed by Herbert (or Fields) running untouched for 7-8 yards before actually having to make someone miss.

There is some inclination to believe that maybe defenses were focused more on stopping Monty, but the truth is, he had to break those tackles because he didn't have the burst to get through holes. Its not some fluke Khalil Herbert averaged over a yard more per carry, its because he's a better runner, who could actually get what's blocked before having to make plays himself.

I think there is this expectation that Gibbs/Monty will be a lot like Swift/Williams, and I think that is wishful thinking. I think Gibbs will blow right past Monty and get a much bigger workload than Swift ever did. I think Gibbs is a low-end RB1. Montgomery will be involved (I'm not saying he sucks) but I'm also not sure he does anything better than Gibbs, including GL running.

I'm expecting about a 60-40 split in favor of Gibbs, and that could get wider if Gibbs really is this Jamaal Charles level talent some think he is. The fact that Gibbs is going in round 4, and Monty in round 5 is baffling to me. In my eyes I like Gibbs in round 3 and start thinking about Monty in like round 8. I'm much more interested in potential greater talent guys like Devon Achane, James Cook, maybe even Javonte Williams, than Montgomery, not just value wise (as they are all going 3+ rounds later) but in general.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm probably gonna be the low man on Montgomery this season. I have him as a middling RB3, with a lower floor than he seems to be getting credit for.

I'm a Bears homer, and honestly outside of a half season stretch in 2020, Montgomery has never really impressed. He has some highlight runs where he breaks 3-4 tackles, to gain like 8 yards, and people I think get the wrong idea that he's making the most of a bad situation. The truth is, despite Justin Fields sack numbers (most of which were on him, he just never gives up on plays) the Bears OL was an above average unit. Those plays where Monty would break 3-4 tackles were often followed by Herbert (or Fields) running untouched for 7-8 yards before actually having to make someone miss.

There is some inclination to believe that maybe defenses were focused more on stopping Monty, but the truth is, he had to break those tackles because he didn't have the burst to get through holes. Its not some fluke Khalil Herbert averaged over a yard more per carry, its because he's a better runner, who could actually get what's blocked before having to make plays himself.

I think there is this expectation that Gibbs/Monty will be a lot like Swift/Williams, and I think that is wishful thinking. I think Gibbs will blow right past Monty and get a much bigger workload than Swift ever did. I think Gibbs is a low-end RB1. Montgomery will be involved (I'm not saying he sucks) but I'm also not sure he does anything better than Gibbs, including GL running.

I'm expecting about a 60-40 split in favor of Gibbs, and that could get wider if Gibbs really is this Jamaal Charles level talent some think he is. The fact that Gibbs is going in round 4, and Monty in round 5 is baffling to me. In my eyes I like Gibbs in round 3 and start thinking about Monty in like round 8. I'm much more interested in potential greater talent guys like Devon Achane, James Cook, maybe even Javonte Williams, than Montgomery, not just value wise (as they are all going 3+ rounds later) but in general.

Monty has a legit shot at being the GL back.

The Jamaal Williams role produced like 7000 TDs last year.

Monty is my bet to absorb those touches. Between the TDs & being a between the tackles banger, I have him in rock solid RB2 territory. IMO he’ll have some weeks bordering on RB1 when he scores twice and has ~60 yards.

I get that you’re a Bears homer - but the Lions have more threatening vertical game, and a pretty solid OL. Combined with a creative OC I believe Monty is going to be a very solid asset to zero-RB teams.

I figure close to 200 carries, a handful of receptions, and possible double digit TDs.

I like him for a build as a RB3 or RB4; but he should have RB2 value, IMO. Good bet for ~65 and a TD, with some spike weeks and a relatively ok floor.

You’re way more down on him than I am. I’m trying to acquire him in my 12 teamer.

 

[travdogg]

I'm probably gonna be the low man on Montgomery this season. I have him as a middling RB3, with a lower floor than he seems to be getting credit for.

I'm a Bears homer, and honestly outside of a half season stretch in 2020, Montgomery has never really impressed. He has some highlight runs where he breaks 3-4 tackles, to gain like 8 yards, and people I think get the wrong idea that he's making the most of a bad situation. The truth is, despite Justin Fields sack numbers (most of which were on him, he just never gives up on plays) the Bears OL was an above average unit. Those plays where Monty would break 3-4 tackles were often followed by Herbert (or Fields) running untouched for 7-8 yards before actually having to make someone miss.

There is some inclination to believe that maybe defenses were focused more on stopping Monty, but the truth is, he had to break those tackles because he didn't have the burst to get through holes. Its not some fluke Khalil Herbert averaged over a yard more per carry, its because he's a better runner, who could actually get what's blocked before having to make plays himself.

I think there is this expectation that Gibbs/Monty will be a lot like Swift/Williams, and I think that is wishful thinking. I think Gibbs will blow right past Monty and get a much bigger workload than Swift ever did. I think Gibbs is a low-end RB1. Montgomery will be involved (I'm not saying he sucks) but I'm also not sure he does anything better than Gibbs, including GL running.

I'm expecting about a 60-40 split in favor of Gibbs, and that could get wider if Gibbs really is this Jamaal Charles level talent some think he is. The fact that Gibbs is going in round 4, and Monty in round 5 is baffling to me. In my eyes I like Gibbs in round 3 and start thinking about Monty in like round 8. I'm much more interested in potential greater talent guys like Devon Achane, James Cook, maybe even Javonte Williams, than Montgomery, not just value wise (as they are all going 3+ rounds later) but in general.

Monty has a legit shot at being the GL back.

The Jamaal Williams role produced like 7000 TDs last year.

Monty is my bet to absorb those touches. Between the TDs & being a between the tackles banger, I have him in rock solid RB2 territory. IMO he’ll have some weeks bordering on RB1 when he scores twice and has ~60 yards.

I get that you’re a Bears homer - but the Lions have more threatening vertical game, and a pretty solid OL. Combined with a creative OC I believe Monty is going to be a very solid asset to zero-RB teams.

I figure close to 200 carries, a handful of receptions, and possible double digit TDs.

I like him for a build as a RB3 or RB4; but he should have RB2 value, IMO. Good bet for ~65 and a TD, with some spike weeks and a relatively ok floor.

You’re way more down on him than I am. I’m trying to acquire him in my 12 teamer.

I don't think the Jamaal Williams role necessarily exists. I think that was a fluky outlier, that was mostly about the lack of durability/trust issues the Lions had with Swift, and based or spending the #12 pick on a RB, I very much doubt Gibbs will find himself in the Swift role.

I agree Monty could find himself being the GL back, but I think its just as likely he isn't, or that there isn't one at all.

I'm thinking something closer to about 160-800-8 (total not just rushing) is about my expectations for Montgomery. I will gladly accept that I way more down on him than you (or perhaps anyone) is. RB30 is a fair over/under in my eyes.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm probably gonna be the low man on Montgomery this season. I have him as a middling RB3, with a lower floor than he seems to be getting credit for.

I'm a Bears homer, and honestly outside of a half season stretch in 2020, Montgomery has never really impressed. He has some highlight runs where he breaks 3-4 tackles, to gain like 8 yards, and people I think get the wrong idea that he's making the most of a bad situation. The truth is, despite Justin Fields sack numbers (most of which were on him, he just never gives up on plays) the Bears OL was an above average unit. Those plays where Monty would break 3-4 tackles were often followed by Herbert (or Fields) running untouched for 7-8 yards before actually having to make someone miss.

There is some inclination to believe that maybe defenses were focused more on stopping Monty, but the truth is, he had to break those tackles because he didn't have the burst to get through holes. Its not some fluke Khalil Herbert averaged over a yard more per carry, its because he's a better runner, who could actually get what's blocked before having to make plays himself.

I think there is this expectation that Gibbs/Monty will be a lot like Swift/Williams, and I think that is wishful thinking. I think Gibbs will blow right past Monty and get a much bigger workload than Swift ever did. I think Gibbs is a low-end RB1. Montgomery will be involved (I'm not saying he sucks) but I'm also not sure he does anything better than Gibbs, including GL running.

I'm expecting about a 60-40 split in favor of Gibbs, and that could get wider if Gibbs really is this Jamaal Charles level talent some think he is. The fact that Gibbs is going in round 4, and Monty in round 5 is baffling to me. In my eyes I like Gibbs in round 3 and start thinking about Monty in like round 8. I'm much more interested in potential greater talent guys like Devon Achane, James Cook, maybe even Javonte Williams, than Montgomery, not just value wise (as they are all going 3+ rounds later) but in general.

Monty has a legit shot at being the GL back.

The Jamaal Williams role produced like 7000 TDs last year.

Monty is my bet to absorb those touches. Between the TDs & being a between the tackles banger, I have him in rock solid RB2 territory. IMO he’ll have some weeks bordering on RB1 when he scores twice and has ~60 yards.

I get that you’re a Bears homer - but the Lions have more threatening vertical game, and a pretty solid OL. Combined with a creative OC I believe Monty is going to be a very solid asset to zero-RB teams.

I figure close to 200 carries, a handful of receptions, and possible double digit TDs.

I like him for a build as a RB3 or RB4; but he should have RB2 value, IMO. Good bet for ~65 and a TD, with some spike weeks and a relatively ok floor.

You’re way more down on him than I am. I’m trying to acquire him in my 12 teamer.

I don't think the Jamaal Williams role necessarily exists. I think that was a fluky outlier, that was mostly about the lack of durability/trust issues the Lions had with Swift, and based or spending the #12 pick on a RB, I very much doubt Gibbs will find himself in the Swift role.

I agree Monty could find himself being the GL back, but I think its just as likely he isn't, or that there isn't one at all.

I'm thinking something closer to about 160-800-8 (total not just rushing) is about my expectations for Montgomery. I will gladly accept that I way more down on him than you (or perhaps anyone) is. RB30 is a fair over/under in my eyes.

I have him as ~RB24, so it’s not like we’re worlds apart.

 

[Da Guru]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

Willams TD rate last year was a little higher that it should have been. Goff had at least 7-8 pass receptions that were tackled on the 1-2 yard for a first and goal.

Don`t see Gibby being in there on first and goal from the 1-2. Monty should get most of those but I see him in the 10-12 TD range.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Don`t see Gibby being in there on first and goal from the 1-2. Monty should get most of those but I see him in the 10-12 TD range.

This is fair.

To me that still puts Montgomery in RB2 range.

Of course with Gibbs being a bit undersized, there’s a non-zero chance of injury/feature back role for Monty, should Gibbs miss time.

Same goes for Gibbs if Monty is out, of course.

(Ironic to say since Monty hurt his leg in OTAs on Thursday, but it is still only May)

 

[Faust]

Lions RB David Montgomery left OTAs with a leg injury.​

Montgomery was injured in position drills before being taken to the locker room. The newly-signed running back has a history of ankle and knee injuries, missing six games the last three seasons. Lions rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (ankle) also missed time at OTAs. Both should be on track for the start of the Lions' preseason.
SOURCE: detroitlions.com
May 27, 2023, 9:37 AM ET

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I hate that there’s been no update on this.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

Willams TD rate last year was a little higher that it should have been. Goff had at least 7-8 pass receptions that were tackled on the 1-2 yard for a first and goal.

Don`t see Gibby being in there on first and goal from the 1-2. Monty should get most of those but I see him in the 10-12 TD range.

Monty was terrible in goal line situations over the past few years. I will eat my proverbial hat if he gets 10-12 TDs.

I liked him on the past few bears teams because he had very little competition. Herbert is a glorified change of pace back who cant pass block. Monty is a plodder, but he was consistent. You knew he would get 15-20 carries and 4-5 targets a game.

 

[BobbyLayne]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

Willams TD rate last year was a little higher that it should have been. Goff had at least 7-8 pass receptions that were tackled on the 1-2 yard for a first and goal.

Don`t see Gibby being in there on first and goal from the 1-2. Monty should get most of those but I see him in the 10-12 TD range.

Monty was terrible in goal line situations over the past few years. I will eat my proverbial hat if he gets 10-12 TDs.

I liked him on the past few bears teams because he had very little competition. Herbert is a glorified change of pace back who cant pass block. Monty is a plodder, but he was consistent. You knew he would get 15-20 carries and 4-5 targets a game.

The key here will be you want to cut your hat into small pieces (say 1" or 1/2" squares) and then cook in broth for several hours. Do you have a slow cooker?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

Willams TD rate last year was a little higher that it should have been. Goff had at least 7-8 pass receptions that were tackled on the 1-2 yard for a first and goal.

Don`t see Gibby being in there on first and goal from the 1-2. Monty should get most of those but I see him in the 10-12 TD range.

Monty was terrible in goal line situations over the past few years. I will eat my proverbial hat if he gets 10-12 TDs.

I liked him on the past few bears teams because he had very little competition. Herbert is a glorified change of pace back who cant pass block. Monty is a plodder, but he was consistent. You knew he would get 15-20 carries and 4-5 targets a game.

The key here will be you want to cut your hat into small pieces (say 1" or 1/2" squares) and then cook in broth for several hours. Do you have a slow cooker?

Much easier than the recipe for crow, for sure.

 

[Da Guru]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

Willams TD rate last year was a little higher that it should have been. Goff had at least 7-8 pass receptions that were tackled on the 1-2 yard for a first and goal.

Don`t see Gibby being in there on first and goal from the 1-2. Monty should get most of those but I see him in the 10-12 TD range.

Monty was terrible in goal line situations over the past few years. I will eat my proverbial hat if he gets 10-12 TDs.

I liked him on the past few bears teams because he had very little competition. Herbert is a glorified change of pace back who cant pass block. Monty is a plodder, but he was consistent. You knew he would get 15-20 carries and 4-5 targets a game.

Jamaal Williams is a plodder too.

Did you see Williams 1-2 yard TDs? 5-6 were untouched.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

Willams TD rate last year was a little higher that it should have been. Goff had at least 7-8 pass receptions that were tackled on the 1-2 yard for a first and goal.

Don`t see Gibby being in there on first and goal from the 1-2. Monty should get most of those but I see him in the 10-12 TD range.

Monty was terrible in goal line situations over the past few years. I will eat my proverbial hat if he gets 10-12 TDs.

I liked him on the past few bears teams because he had very little competition. Herbert is a glorified change of pace back who cant pass block. Monty is a plodder, but he was consistent. You knew he would get 15-20 carries and 4-5 targets a game.

Jamaal Williams is a plodder too.

Did you see Williams 1-2 yard TDs? 5-6 were untouched.

What are the chances the Lions have 10-12 goal line stands like they did last year. There were so many fluky plays that ended up on the 1-2 yard line last year.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Lions RB David Montgomery left OTAs with a leg injury.​

Montgomery was injured in position drills before being taken to the locker room. The newly-signed running back has a history of ankle and knee injuries, missing six games the last three seasons. Lions rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (ankle) also missed time at OTAs. Both should be on track for the start of the Lions' preseason.
SOURCE: detroitlions.com
May 27, 2023, 9:37 AM ET

It would be ironic if Montgomery had an injury plagued year after the way the Lions dealt with Swift.

 

[Da Guru]

Lions RB David Montgomery left OTAs with a leg injury.​

Montgomery was injured in position drills before being taken to the locker room. The newly-signed running back has a history of ankle and knee injuries, missing six games the last three seasons. Lions rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (ankle) also missed time at OTAs. Both should be on track for the start of the Lions' preseason.
SOURCE: detroitlions.com
May 27, 2023, 9:37 AM ET

It would be ironic if Montgomery had an injury plagued year after the way the Lions dealt with Swift.

Was never a fan of getting rid of Swift.

Swifts salary was very tolerable and the return was not good. Having Swift as insurance would not have been a bad thing for the team. For some reason he fell out of favor with management.

Some say he did not hit the correct holes. Well he had 99 carries for 548 yards last season. 5.5 a carry for hitting the wrong holes is not bad.

 

[eighsse2]

Lions RB David Montgomery left OTAs with a leg injury.​

Montgomery was injured in position drills before being taken to the locker room. The newly-signed running back has a history of ankle and knee injuries, missing six games the last three seasons. Lions rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (ankle) also missed time at OTAs. Both should be on track for the start of the Lions' preseason.
SOURCE: detroitlions.com
May 27, 2023, 9:37 AM ET

It would be ironic if Montgomery had an injury plagued year after the way the Lions dealt with Swift.

Was never a fan of getting rid of Swift.

Swifts salary was very tolerable and the return was not good. Having Swift as insurance would not have been a bad thing for the team. For some reason he fell out of favor with management.

Some say he did not hit the correct holes. Well he had 99 carries for 548 yards last season. 5.5 a carry for hitting the wrong holes is not bad.

I did see people saying the "he hits the wrong hole" argument. Never really thought it made much sense. But I don't really know anything about the whole blocking/gaps stuff. Just thought he looked really good most of the time.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

It was a good run.

He is still in position for a very productive 2-3 year window. He isn't going to be an RB1 but looking at what Jamaal Williams did last year, gives me confidence he can be a reliable RB2.

I think he'll be okay but believe Gibbs will be more involved than Swift was, so maybe a lower end #2/great #3 for Monty?

Fair and Jamaal did have an unlikely to be replicated TD total.

Didn't he get like 5 TDs after ARSB or Kalif got tackled at the 1? It was a running joke in the WR room. I know 10 of his TDs were from the 1, another from 2 yards IIRC.

I think Monty is fine as an RB3 if you're going robust RB. I would rather have Gibbs upside but wouldn't be surprised if the Vet has more touches.

Amon Ra is who I am betting on

He's an ultra safe pick in the 2nd. Might average close to 10 targets /g and almost surely due for positive regression in TDs, he was quite unlucky in that regard last year.

I'm in full PPR with 3 WRs + Flex, fully on board with hero RB and then backloading later rounds with lottery tix. Montgomery probably is not in my plans but rn his ADP is semi-attractive. Coming off the board around ADP on Underdog (about where you can get Conners and Javonte, RB27-29.)

Willams TD rate last year was a little higher that it should have been. Goff had at least 7-8 pass receptions that were tackled on the 1-2 yard for a first and goal.

Don`t see Gibby being in there on first and goal from the 1-2. Monty should get most of those but I see him in the 10-12 TD range.

Monty was terrible in goal line situations over the past few years. I will eat my proverbial hat if he gets 10-12 TDs.

I liked him on the past few bears teams because he had very little competition. Herbert is a glorified change of pace back who cant pass block. Monty is a plodder, but he was consistent. You knew he would get 15-20 carries and 4-5 targets a game.

Jamaal Williams is a plodder too.

Did you see Williams 1-2 yard TDs? 5-6 were untouched.

What are the chances the Lions have 10-12 goal line stands like they did last year. There were so many fluky plays that ended up on the 1-2 yard line last year.

Pretty solid, IMO.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Lions RB David Montgomery left OTAs with a leg injury.​

Montgomery was injured in position drills before being taken to the locker room. The newly-signed running back has a history of ankle and knee injuries, missing six games the last three seasons. Lions rookie Jahmyr Gibbs (ankle) also missed time at OTAs. Both should be on track for the start of the Lions' preseason.
SOURCE: detroitlions.com
May 27, 2023, 9:37 AM ET

It would be ironic if Montgomery had an injury plagued year after the way the Lions dealt with Swift.

It’s pretty early. If this were a significant injury I think we would have heard by now.

But your point is taken.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I did see people saying the "he hits the wrong hole"

My ex, for example.





rimshot.gif

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Lions had 23 rushing tds last year. 22 are from guys no longer on the team. Even if you expect that number to be lower this year, there should still be a bunch left out there. Who's the most likely guy on the team this year to get the majority of those? The guy who weighs 199 or the guy who weighs 222?