JohnnyU
Footballguy
Aren't fantasy publications for newbies
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RB De’Von Achane, MIA (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
I've been buying Fantasy Index for a long time. I love their format, especially their game by game log. The expert's contest is always interesting. It's a great summary of changes in players and coaches in the past year, a quick way to catchup for us fans who don't have time to keep up with all the latest news. Their predictions have been pretty good, they provide justifications. Why do they rate Achane so low.Aren't fantasy publications for newbies
Scoresman
Footballguy
Those publications are valuable as hell. Half my league still rolls into the draft with Fantasy Index.
Take the rankings from it and compare to actual ADP/auction prices to give an idea of which guys will be overvalued based on the magazine. Sounds like Achane will be a bargain if they have him ranked that low.
Take the rankings from it and compare to actual ADP/auction prices to give an idea of which guys will be overvalued based on the magazine. Sounds like Achane will be a bargain if they have him ranked that low.
TripItUp
Footballguy
I get the Index every year...it's the only mag I still get.
Dez
Footballguy
Ditto
FantasyGuru24
Footballguy
I’ll take Achane’s 12-15 touches a game over anyone not named CMC and Bijan
satch
Footballguy
My biggest concern with Achane is fragility. Owned him last year and while he’s unquestionably exciting, he screams like the type of back who will be 100% for only a few games per season. Most of the time he’ll be limited due to injury, coming off an injury, questionable, about to get injured, or out.
I just don’t think he’s destined to be a dependable fantasy asset, but rather a completely random boom/bust type. An awesome flex play, but not consistent enough to be my RB1, and since RBs in general get injured so often, I wouldn’t be comfortable with him as my backup RB1 (RB2) either.
Will definitely have RB1 weeks, I’m just not into “handle with care” type RBs. I’d rather have a RB who consistently accumulates 160 total points over the season than a RB who scores 170 total points via a few blow up games randomly interspersed with mostly duds.
I just don’t think he’s destined to be a dependable fantasy asset, but rather a completely random boom/bust type. An awesome flex play, but not consistent enough to be my RB1, and since RBs in general get injured so often, I wouldn’t be comfortable with him as my backup RB1 (RB2) either.
Will definitely have RB1 weeks, I’m just not into “handle with care” type RBs. I’d rather have a RB who consistently accumulates 160 total points over the season than a RB who scores 170 total points via a few blow up games randomly interspersed with mostly duds.
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finfansteve
Footballguy
It’s the only mag I EVER got. I still have them somewhere from maybe the late 80’s but definitely the 90’s and early 2000’s
I am with you there. and if his ADP is super early its tough to bet that much draft capital on a guy like that.
if he slips a bit I'm all for swinging for the fences, but the risk/return needs to be in line. hes a player I am watching. but at this point not sure if I am buying
Achane only played in 11 games
Week 1 - inactive
Week 2 - only played 6 snaps; had 1 carry and 1 catch for a total of 9 yards
Weeks 3 thru 5 - 37 carries for 455 yards/5 TD's and 8 catches for 63 yards/2 TD's
Weeks 6 thru 9 - inactive
Week 10 - only played 3 snaps; had 1 carry and 1 catch for a total of 5 yards
Week 11 - inactive
Weeks 12 thru 17 - 64 carries for 339 yards/3 TD's and 17 catches for 126 yards/1 TD
Let's look at his longest stretch of games, which were the last 6 weeks of the regular season. During this time, he averaged 13.5 touches, which is exactly in the middle of your 12-15 touch number. He was RB19 in PPG during this 6 week stretch. His yards per carry was a very good 5.3, but he certainly came back down to earth from his 12.3 YPC during his 3 game monster run. And his 4 TD's over the last 6 games is certainly more realistic than his 7 TD's over a 3 game span. I'm assuming you are expecting much better than RB19, right? If so, and we use his last 6 games as a baseline, what stats would he need to increase? His total carries? Yards per carry? Catches? Yards per catch? Total TD's?
satch
Footballguy
Great breakdown. It’s easy and certainly understandable to be enamored with the sky-high potential Achane flashed in 2023, but it seems likely that it will be a career of flashes more closely resembling the second half of 2023 than the first, which is still a valuable fantasy asset.
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Some expect Achane to have a bigger role as a receiver in 2024. He lined up as a WR many times in high school. Wasn't used much much in college as a receiver. But showed last year that he knows routes, can beat man coverage and has good hands. We'll see. Some film analysis of Achane in 2023 as a receiver:
youtu.be
Film Breakdown: How De'Von Achane's Receiving Role will EVOLVE in 2024
De'Von Achane RB Miami DolphinsSubscribe peeps#nfl #miamidolphins #football #dolphinsnation #dolphins #sports
youtu.be
FantasyGuru24
Footballguy
Dolphins to find 'more ways' to utilize De'Von Achane in offense after running back's historic rookie season
Achane had the highest yards-per-carry average in NFL history for a back with at least 100 carries
www.cbssports.com
Well, carries are just receptions thrown backwards
FantasyGuru24
Footballguy
Dolphins RB De'Von Achane reliving his 76-yard TD vs. the Giants is awesome
The Miami Dolphins and the entire fan base are expecting and hoping for big things from De'Von Achane in 2024, and there are sure to be some great highlights. O
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Great video, thanks for posting.Dolphins RB De'Von Achane reliving his 76-yard TD vs. the Giants is awesome
The Miami Dolphins and the entire fan base are expecting and hoping for big things from De'Von Achane in 2024, and there are sure to be some great highlights. Ophinphanatic.com
-Giants, the Safety breaks and thinks he can push Achane at least towards the out of bounds but he turns on the jets and blows right by the Safety, scary fast
-Bills, the irony that Poyer is now a Miami Dolphin, and that play shows why Achane is so dangerous in space. Both of these TDs, don't think he was even touched
I try as a Miami fan not to be excited all the time about him
Kind of hold my breath because he tends to get hurt thus far although I don't label him as fragile just yet.
I heard he was adding some muscle, that could slow him down a half step if he add 10-15 lbs.
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Big Nate
Footballguy
I think it will be a year or two of him trying to slide into proper NFL weight (what ever that is). he was still sprinting in college so his ideal frame/weight was different than what he wants the NFL to be.Great video, thanks for posting.Dolphins RB De'Von Achane reliving his 76-yard TD vs. the Giants is awesome
The Miami Dolphins and the entire fan base are expecting and hoping for big things from De'Von Achane in 2024, and there are sure to be some great highlights. O
-Giants, the Safety breaks and thinks he can push Achane at least towards the out of bounds but he turns on the hets and blows right by the Safety, scary fast
-Bills, the irony that Poyer is now a Miami Dolphin, and that play shows why Achane is so dangerous in space. Both of these TDs, don't think he was even touched
I try as a Miami fan not to be excited all the time about him
Kind of hold my breath because he tends to get hurt thus far although I don't label him as fragile just yet.
I heard he was adding some muscle, that could slow him down a half step if he add 10-15 lbs.
The good thing with him is he doesn't need 20+ touches to be fantasy relevant. 10 rushes and 5 passing targets a game could be great for him.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Achane is going to do some good things this year but he also needs to stay healthy. I think he will figure it out and MIA will find a good balance of touches/involvement to keep him fresh.
Here is the key though - I do believe that Mostert will get the exact same role he did last year and will keep getting fed as the lead until he can't anymore. Will Mostert stay healthy? That is a tough one as he is 32 and has struggled at times with injury but last year was pretty good overall. It was Mostert's first time ever getting 200 carries. A good balance between the 2 RBs to try to keep them healthy is a good thing for MIA as well as the 2 RBs.
There is a chance we see Wright this year if there ends up being an injury to one of these guys. They also have a bigger back in Brooks who did well in the 2 games he played last year getting limited touches.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I am of the position, I cannot trade Achane. I have seen a lot of teams get off the Achane train here, but I am holding this year.
I'll probably get slaughtered for saying this but I look at Devon Achane the same way I look at Jahmyr Gibbs - similar frame, similar skills but Achane is in the more dynamic offense. If he hadn't been injured last year, he is a top 10 RB. Both of these RB's are unicorns with tremendous breakaway speed.
Achane checks all the boxes and the only knock on him is his size and the injury. If you sell him and he doesn't sustain an injury this year - you sold low and someone bought the dip in price. I am typically the guy who wants to buy the dip on a guy that passes the eye test. McDaniels has another year to scheme him into the offense and barring injury Achane will be the guy to own in fantasy.
I'll probably get slaughtered for saying this but I look at Devon Achane the same way I look at Jahmyr Gibbs - similar frame, similar skills but Achane is in the more dynamic offense. If he hadn't been injured last year, he is a top 10 RB. Both of these RB's are unicorns with tremendous breakaway speed.
Achane checks all the boxes and the only knock on him is his size and the injury. If you sell him and he doesn't sustain an injury this year - you sold low and someone bought the dip in price. I am typically the guy who wants to buy the dip on a guy that passes the eye test. McDaniels has another year to scheme him into the offense and barring injury Achane will be the guy to own in fantasy.
metoo
Footballguy
I agree Mostert will get his carries until he can't and he'll be replaced by Wright. Neither will affect Achane.
Honestly, I've thought Achane and Gibbs were pretty close to the same guy going into the 2023 NFL draft. They even have extremely similar situations with both splitting carries with a veteran RB who takes the GL TDs. Achane is a better runner than Gibbs in my opinion, and Gibbs is a better receiver, but they are very similar I agree.
I think they both have contingent upsides of top-3 RBs. Achane's path is probably a little easier as Mostert is 30+ with a long injury history, whereas Montgomery is arguably in his prime. Both guys have the potential to completely distance themselves from the veteran though. Both have a little bit of a Chris Johnson/Lendale White vibe to me, where in year 2, the team realizes they can't limit the guy who stresses defenses.
The biggest separator for me, is Detroit has the NFL's best OL, and Miami has a lot of question marks there, but not enough that the difference in ADP should be as wide as it is. I think they are both great targets if you are the type of owner who likes to shoot for ceiling, but probably a little frustrating for owners who value consistency or are impatient.
BradtheAg
Footballguy
Also in the cannot trade Achane camp. Loved him at A&M and he is probably my second favorite NFL player behind Ceedee. I know there is injury risk but I play fantasy to have fun and there are very few things I enjoy more than watching an Aggie run 100 mph up and down the field while dropping 20 points on my opponent.
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
I would tend to agree with everything you've said. It is odd to me how split the fantasy community is on Achane v. Gibbs.
It seems to be most people believe Gibbs is exempt from all the risks associated with Achane, but they have a very similar frame. Gibbs appears to have a little more twitch and Achane is all-out speed. There were plenty of plays that IMO Achane could have made another cut and added more yardage but continued to follow his blockers to the end.
I didn't see a ton of Gibbs this year, but do remember offensive sets with Mostert and Achane on the field together. I think that is interesting.
Overall, I just think the narrative on Gibbs is he is elite and expect a huge push and people have been trying to discredit Achane (frame, injury, Wright's presence in the backfield). I believe Wright is a Mostert replacement and has little competition to Achane. I agree Detroit has a better offensive line but I'll take a sprinter in a zone blocking offense on the fastest offense in the NFL as a consolation prize.
As far as pass catcher versus pure runner, I think it is more about scheme and signal caller. Goff seems to be able to go through progressions and Tua only has eyes for Tyreek Hill. I just trust McDaniels to scheme Achane into the offense and not sure why everyone is selling Achane and buying Gibbs.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Wright was drafted to replace mostert when the time comes. FWIW, he’s one of my favorite value picks. (Took at 2.11 in my sf)
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
tiny bones
TVT 0 N S T A
Footballguy
Send us your bones.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
The bones are the skeletons' money
In our world, bones equal dollars
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Mostert racked up about 20 TDs and has been mostly on fire since he arrived in Miami
Big Nate
Footballguy
Yep, one day the wheels will fall off but until then expect Mostert to keep plugging away. He could get another 10-14TDs easy this year. MIA will stick with Mostert until he can't go anymore.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
If anyone understands this we may be related…
The bones are the skeletons' money
In our world, bones equal dollars
That’s why they’re coming out tonight
To get their bones from you
The skeletons will pull your hair
Up, but not out
All they want is another chance at life
They’ve never seen so much food as this
Underground there’s half as much food as this
Archane is the ultimate high risk/high reward, but until Mostert starts slowing down….
The bones are the skeletons' money
In our world, bones equal dollars
That’s why they’re coming out tonight
To get their bones from you
The skeletons will pull your hair
Up, but not out
All they want is another chance at life
They’ve never seen so much food as this
Underground there’s half as much food as this
Archane is the ultimate high risk/high reward, but until Mostert starts slowing down….
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
You all do know that there is no such thing as being "Big Bone" right?
I've never seen a skeleton that indicated what size the person was other than height
Denser bones only weigh slightly more than less dense bones. Maybe a wrist is an inch larger around than someone else but there really isn't a medical term called big bone
Skeletons for the most part all look similar
I've never seen a skeleton that indicated what size the person was other than height
Denser bones only weigh slightly more than less dense bones. Maybe a wrist is an inch larger around than someone else but there really isn't a medical term called big bone
Skeletons for the most part all look similar
satch
Footballguy
I’m not arguing your point about bone density data, but let me ask you this: Suppose a 6’6” 350 lb man and a 5’ 9” 180 lb man take turns body slamming each other. Which man is more likely to suffer a broken bone first?
To me, that’s the kind of logic that plays into little guys being injury prone in the NFL.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
But after they pass away and there is nothing left but their skeletons, other than height and length, the actual bones themselves are not really much different
Maybe I'm wrong but I've never been able to guess weight when I look at just a skeleton
satch
Footballguy
I don’t mean to derail your point, but it seems to warrant mentioning that NFL players aren’t skeletons. Although, admittedly, that would be awesome.
Big Nate
Footballguy
I think this weight talk is a bit much, people just reaching for a reason to not like him. Hey, no worries if you don't want to draft Achane (for whatever reason) but I think it will take some time for him to settle in to his proper playing weight. He was a bit light last year due to his sprinting. I think a full offseason of him just focusing on football and prep will go a long way to him being successful this year.
Now, there have been successful small backs in the NFL. I think Achane can be very successful in a time share where he doesn't have to a be a lead back. Pollard is a great example of being successful when he wasn't a lead back. Achane can be the same and I think each season he will get more comfortable with the NFL and taking care of his body.
Now, there have been successful small backs in the NFL. I think Achane can be very successful in a time share where he doesn't have to a be a lead back. Pollard is a great example of being successful when he wasn't a lead back. Achane can be the same and I think each season he will get more comfortable with the NFL and taking care of his body.
socrates
Footballguy
Is this a fat joke? I am standing by my story that I'm just big-boned!
If you want him right now you'd have to massively over pay (so top 6ish RB). But if he comes out with a couple duds or gets dinged up in preseason, you might have a window.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Sorry about the squirrel bones, Richard.
chad in Indy
Footballguy
Difference is that when Pollard was the complimentary back, you could get him cheap. Achane is going as fringe top-10 RB. Pollard's fantasy ROI over his draft possession was crazy the last season Zeke was there. Achane is being drafted much closer to his ceiling.
Not saying he can't do it but the risk is really really high.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
One of my misses from last year. Too small. Competition for carries. They pass too much. Blah blah. Only had 100 carries or so, but man was his film amazing. We can quote science articles to try and correlate his size and not staying healthy last year. If you want to stand on the tiny backs can't stay healthy fence I get it. I just think plenty of small guys can stay healthy. Who knows though. If he can stay relatively healthy I see highest scoring fantasy RB potential. The problem is if your 1st round pick misses half the games or more it's brutal trying to fill those numbers. I won't own any shares but dude is fun as hell to watch. All my opinion of course.
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Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
His ADP is in the second round, but your point holds.
streamkeeper
Footballguy
In my home dynasty league I just swapped Achane for James Cook, and saved a little BB$. I was intrigued by what I saw last season, and trust McDaniel to keep him involved in the game.
I wanted shares for the Dolphins offense, but not at the price of their WRs.
...and I will happily pick up Mostert if my league mates undervalue him.
I wanted shares for the Dolphins offense, but not at the price of their WRs.
...and I will happily pick up Mostert if my league mates undervalue him.
ahartig
Footballguy
I traded for Achane last year in my 10 team 0.5 PPR sleeper dynasty. I sent a 2024 1st (that I had acquired via another trade) and AJ Brown for Achane, Devontae Smith, and a 2024 2nd.
I have the option to keep Kyren for a 15th rounder or Achane for a 5th in a keeper, leaning Kyren and hoping to snag Achane at the 2/3 turn, have the 2nd overall pick.
eighsse2
Footballguy
You must be in a league like ours, where RBs are like gold, if not diamonds. Because that sounds like quite an extreme opinion.
