Chaka
Footballguy
IDK, the math checks out.LOL. That’s not how it works.Mostert is 32, Wright is 21. In a manner of speaking, they are a 25.5-year old version of Mostert sharing the backfield with Achane
IDK, the math checks out.LOL. That’s not how it works.Mostert is 32, Wright is 21. In a manner of speaking, they are a 25.5-year old version of Mostert sharing the backfield with Achane
It actually doesn't even.IDK, the math checks out.LOL. That’s not how it works.Mostert is 32, Wright is 21. In a manner of speaking, they are a 25.5-year old version of Mostert sharing the backfield with Achane
I guess the guy I seen take him at pick 13 of a $2,000 Main event last night wasn't listening either.Lots of people reconsidering their Achane stance now...should've listened.
I guess that’s one of your “get your guys” pick. There’s no way he’s making it back to him in the third, so he has to grab him there if he wants him.I guess the guy I seen take him at pick 13 of a $2,000 Main event last night wasn't listening either.Lots of people reconsidering their Achane stance now...should've listened.
That’s your opinion, I say he’s a league winner, Jamal Charles was a 12-15 touch guy that won leagues. I will take him early and often and already have.I'd be selling high on Achane. He's not even the best RB on his own team now.
That’s your opinion, I say he’s a league winner, Jamal Charles was a 12-15 touch guy that won leagues. I will take him early and often and already have.I'd be selling high on Achane. He's not even the best RB on his own team now.
I guess the guy I seen take him at pick 13 of a $2,000 Main event last night wasn't listening either.
821 posts in 21 years. You don’t say much, but mean it when you do. Unless it’s another alias.That’s your opinion, I say he’s a league winner, Jamal Charles was a 12-15 touch guy that won leagues. I will take him early and often and already have.I'd be selling high on Achane. He's not even the best RB on his own team now.
Style and speed-wise, one can see it, but unfortunately he'll never get the volume CJ2K got. Those workload days are in the past for nearly all guys playing the position.Ross Tucker Podcast
“The next Chris Johnson is in the range of outcomes…”
@FG_Dolan talks about the potential for Dolphins 2nd year RB De’Von Achane:x.com
x.com
Second time in as many days I've seen the CJ2K comp. Other was Evan Silva on JJ's pod.
Do you think a guy getting 6.5 YPC with under 10 carries and no GL can carry a fantasy team?I'll have some shares of him. He somehow managed to get 800 yards on 103 carries 7.8 YPC. I can't say I've ever seen anything like that before.
Production wise, only Jamaal Charles has sniffed that level of efficiency from what I recall. It just means you're making a lot of BIG RUNS. That Dolphins scheme is very good and you only need 8 touches a game to be fantasy relevant when you're a YPC machine like this guy.
Surely he won't sustain 7.8 but even a 5.5 to 6.5 YPC guy and he's going to be super valuable. No clue how Wright fits in, but hard not to see coaches continuing to give this guy opportunity.
Do you think a guy getting 6.5 YPC with under 10 carries and no GL can carry a fantasy team?I'll have some shares of him. He somehow managed to get 800 yards on 103 carries 7.8 YPC. I can't say I've ever seen anything like that before.
Production wise, only Jamaal Charles has sniffed that level of efficiency from what I recall. It just means you're making a lot of BIG RUNS. That Dolphins scheme is very good and you only need 8 touches a game to be fantasy relevant when you're a YPC machine like this guy.
Surely he won't sustain 7.8 but even a 5.5 to 6.5 YPC guy and he's going to be super valuable. No clue how Wright fits in, but hard not to see coaches continuing to give this guy opportunity.
Mostert is a legit 32 years old. Thats old.Dolphin fan here and I am as Shuked as everyone else here. Mosert isn't going anywhere unless injury hits, Achane is crazy from a speed and skill set, but so is Wright, the kid they just drafted. Those three are making the team, but Jonnu Smith is also getting some gadget carries and its honestly going to take an injury to clear up this room. Even if something were to happen to Mosert, I assume Jeff Wilson Jr would still have a roll. Only if Wilson is cut and Chris Brooks stays on the roster do I think it clears a better glide path for Achane.
These takes that it can't happen make people miss bigtime when it does. He very well could stay healthy this year and crush. When he was on the field last year he did things no one else has done. The talent is there.That’s your opinion, I say he’s a league winner, Jamal Charles was a 12-15 touch guy that won leagues. I will take him early and often and already have.I'd be selling high on Achane. He's not even the best RB on his own team now.
I hope it works out for you…I dont think it will.
And it's highly unlikely Achane gets 15 touches per game....it's not sustainable if he does.
Why is he not getting GL carries? He did last year. He also caught some TD passes in the red zone.Do you think a guy getting 6.5 YPC with under 10 carries and no GL can carry a fantasy team?I'll have some shares of him. He somehow managed to get 800 yards on 103 carries 7.8 YPC. I can't say I've ever seen anything like that before.
Production wise, only Jamaal Charles has sniffed that level of efficiency from what I recall. It just means you're making a lot of BIG RUNS. That Dolphins scheme is very good and you only need 8 touches a game to be fantasy relevant when you're a YPC machine like this guy.
Surely he won't sustain 7.8 but even a 5.5 to 6.5 YPC guy and he's going to be super valuable. No clue how Wright fits in, but hard not to see coaches continuing to give this guy opportunity.
Wright very well could be a steal, especially if Mostert get huts. I see Wright as a guy that can step into Mostert's role which Achane stays in his current role.For my money, if the choice is Achane at Pick 21, Mostert at Pick 80, or Wright at Pick 151, I’d roll the dice on Wright. IMO, there will be multiple games this season when either Mostert or Achane are out, and that would make Wright a fantasy starter. And if one of those two misses significant time, you will get the same top level of production without the price tag of the other two.
He also could stay healthy and bust, like he did weeks 14-16 last year, with 60 scoreless yards. That's the risk of a guy who only gets around 10 touches. I suspect he killed a few fantasy playoff teams.These takes that it can't happen make people miss bigtime when it does. He very well could stay healthy this year and crush. When he was on the field last year he did things no one else has done. The talent is there.That’s your opinion, I say he’s a league winner, Jamal Charles was a 12-15 touch guy that won leagues. I will take him early and often and already have.I'd be selling high on Achane. He's not even the best RB on his own team now.
I hope it works out for you…I dont think it will.
And it's highly unlikely Achane gets 15 touches per game....it's not sustainable if he does.
Now that his price has dropped slightly I think it is a mistake to write him off.
After week 5, Achane's only two GL scores came in a blowout over Wash after Mostert was already pulled. His only receiving TD after week 3 came late in a blowout loss to Baltimore,Why is he not getting GL carries? He did last year. He also caught some TD passes in the red zone.Do you think a guy getting 6.5 YPC with under 10 carries and no GL can carry a fantasy team?I'll have some shares of him. He somehow managed to get 800 yards on 103 carries 7.8 YPC. I can't say I've ever seen anything like that before.
Production wise, only Jamaal Charles has sniffed that level of efficiency from what I recall. It just means you're making a lot of BIG RUNS. That Dolphins scheme is very good and you only need 8 touches a game to be fantasy relevant when you're a YPC machine like this guy.
Surely he won't sustain 7.8 but even a 5.5 to 6.5 YPC guy and he's going to be super valuable. No clue how Wright fits in, but hard not to see coaches continuing to give this guy opportunity.
Nothing stopping someone from drafting all 3.For my money, if the choice is Achane at Pick 21, Mostert at Pick 80, or Wright at Pick 151, I’d roll the dice on Wright. IMO, there will be multiple games this season when either Mostert or Achane are out, and that would make Wright a fantasy starter. And if one of those two misses significant time, you will get the same top level of production without the price tag of the other two.
Ryan Heath
De'Von Achane just had the most efficient rookie season ever, and could well be the next Alvin Kamara.
Among rookie RBs drafted Rounds 1-3 who outperformed their weighted opportunity by +2.5 PPG or more:
- 5/5 had a volume increase in Year 2
- 4/5 topped 20 PPG in Year 2
Not mentioned so far is the fact that Achane had 250+ yards and 6 TD in garbage time in blowouts last year. Most of that came in a win by 50 points against DEN and a 30-point win against WAS. Mostert was essentially done for the day and MIA was just killing the clock in the second half. (He had limited 4th quarter work against NYJ and BAL as well.) IMO, this stuff matters. Achane only had 5 TD in situations where the game was in doubt. When it mattered, Mostert was in when the game was on the line, and he was their bell cow.
I get it, fantasy doesn't differentiate or discriminate when fantasy production occurs, but if the games were closer and all we saw at the end of the year was a total of 750 YFS and 5 TD, people would be looking at Achane as a backup / handcuff with upside and not the second coming of Marshall Tomlinson.
Digging deeper . . . The most carries Achane got last year came in 3 games: 19 vs. DEN (a 50-point win), 17 vs. WAS (a 30-point win), and 14 against BAL (a 37-point loss). He only had two other games with 10 or more carries: 11 against NYG and 10 against BUF. Including the playoffs, he had 7 games with single digit carries, in which he scored:
NEP - 2.9
BUF - 27.0
LVR - 1.5
TEN - 12.1
NYJ - 9.2
DAL - 4.1
KCC - 6.0
At those point, the ASSUMPTION is that Achane is going to now become an equal to Mostert (or potentially overtake him), but last year there was no indication that that was the direction things were headed. As I posted in detail earlier, McDaniel's history or RB usage is not to rely on one back unless there were multiple injuries in the RB group. IMO, if Mostert did get hurt, I am not sure that Achane would get a ton more carries, as I believe Wright (or others) would step in to fill the void. I don't think we see Achane having many games with 15 carries.
There have been 13 rbs to rush for 1,000 at age 31... There have only been 6 rbs to do it at 32. The avg of the 13 31yr old Rb's was 1280; The avg of the 6 32yr old Rb's was 1103
That's a 14% drop-off in yards and only half the 1,000yd rushers. At 33, only 4 people have cracked 800 and the list is bleak
Allow me to retort . . . None of the backs mentioned bear much resemblance to the situation in MIA.Ryan Heath
De'Von Achane just had the most efficient rookie season ever, and could well be the next Alvin Kamara.
Among rookie RBs drafted Rounds 1-3 who outperformed their weighted opportunity by +2.5 PPG or more:
- 5/5 had a volume increase in Year 2
- 4/5 topped 20 PPG in Year 2x.com
x.com
2024-05-12
150/750/8TDs plus 52/420/4TDsNot mentioned so far is the fact that Achane had 250+ yards and 6 TD in garbage time in blowouts last year. Most of that came in a win by 50 points against DEN and a 30-point win against WAS. Mostert was essentially done for the day and MIA was just killing the clock in the second half. (He had limited 4th quarter work against NYJ and BAL as well.) IMO, this stuff matters. Achane only had 5 TD in situations where the game was in doubt. When it mattered, Mostert was in when the game was on the line, and he was their bell cow.
I get it, fantasy doesn't differentiate or discriminate when fantasy production occurs, but if the games were closer and all we saw at the end of the year was a total of 750 YFS and 5 TD, people would be looking at Achane as a backup / handcuff with upside and not the second coming of Marshall Tomlinson.
Digging deeper . . . The most carries Achane got last year came in 3 games: 19 vs. DEN (a 50-point win), 17 vs. WAS (a 30-point win), and 14 against BAL (a 37-point loss). He only had two other games with 10 or more carries: 11 against NYG and 10 against BUF. Including the playoffs, he had 7 games with single digit carries, in which he scored:
NEP - 2.9
BUF - 27.0
LVR - 1.5
TEN - 12.1
NYJ - 9.2
DAL - 4.1
KCC - 6.0
At those point, the ASSUMPTION is that Achane is going to now become an equal to Mostert (or potentially overtake him), but last year there was no indication that that was the direction things were headed. As I posted in detail earlier, McDaniel's history or RB usage is not to rely on one back unless there were multiple injuries in the RB group. IMO, if Mostert did get hurt, I am not sure that Achane would get a ton more carries, as I believe Wright (or others) would step in to fill the void. I don't think we see Achane having many games with 15 carries.
As this is just a slice of the MIA RB pie, it would be hard to fully comment without projections for the other MIA backs. The reason I say that is the sum of the parts may make the total team projection too high. But what you posted probably isn't unreasonable. That being said, once Achane returned from injury, in his last 6 regular season games and the playoff game, he put up 70-348-4.97-3 with 20-147-7.35-1. We all can play with the numbers however we want, but IMO, that's a more likely baseline to start with than working off his crazy bender he went on early in the season. I think teams adjusted their defense accordingly after that, and as I mentioned earlier, he put up a lot of empty calories in blowouts in garbage time.150/750/8TDs plus 52/420/4TDsNot mentioned so far is the fact that Achane had 250+ yards and 6 TD in garbage time in blowouts last year. Most of that came in a win by 50 points against DEN and a 30-point win against WAS. Mostert was essentially done for the day and MIA was just killing the clock in the second half. (He had limited 4th quarter work against NYJ and BAL as well.) IMO, this stuff matters. Achane only had 5 TD in situations where the game was in doubt. When it mattered, Mostert was in when the game was on the line, and he was their bell cow.
I get it, fantasy doesn't differentiate or discriminate when fantasy production occurs, but if the games were closer and all we saw at the end of the year was a total of 750 YFS and 5 TD, people would be looking at Achane as a backup / handcuff with upside and not the second coming of Marshall Tomlinson.
Digging deeper . . . The most carries Achane got last year came in 3 games: 19 vs. DEN (a 50-point win), 17 vs. WAS (a 30-point win), and 14 against BAL (a 37-point loss). He only had two other games with 10 or more carries: 11 against NYG and 10 against BUF. Including the playoffs, he had 7 games with single digit carries, in which he scored:
NEP - 2.9
BUF - 27.0
LVR - 1.5
TEN - 12.1
NYJ - 9.2
DAL - 4.1
KCC - 6.0
At those point, the ASSUMPTION is that Achane is going to now become an equal to Mostert (or potentially overtake him), but last year there was no indication that that was the direction things were headed. As I posted in detail earlier, McDaniel's history or RB usage is not to rely on one back unless there were multiple injuries in the RB group. IMO, if Mostert did get hurt, I am not sure that Achane would get a ton more carries, as I believe Wright (or others) would step in to fill the void. I don't think we see Achane having many games with 15 carries.
200 touches for about 1,200 yds and 12 TDs, 52 catches, don't think that is outlandish and all predicated on Achane being able to start or suit up healthy for 15-16 games.
What have you got?
The Ice Bowl in KC might be bringing down some of your score there.As this is just a slice of the MIA RB pie, it would be hard to fully comment without projections for the other MIA backs. The reason I say that is the sum of the parts may make the total team projection too high. But what you posted probably isn't unreasonable. That being said, once Achane returned from injury, in his last 6 regular season games and the playoff game, he put up 70-348-4.97-3 with 20-147-7.35-1. We all can play with the numbers however we want, but IMO, that's a more likely baseline to start with than working off his crazy bender he went on early in the season. I think teams adjusted their defense accordingly after that, and as I mentioned earlier, he put up a lot of empty calories in blowouts in garbage time.150/750/8TDs plus 52/420/4TDsNot mentioned so far is the fact that Achane had 250+ yards and 6 TD in garbage time in blowouts last year. Most of that came in a win by 50 points against DEN and a 30-point win against WAS. Mostert was essentially done for the day and MIA was just killing the clock in the second half. (He had limited 4th quarter work against NYJ and BAL as well.) IMO, this stuff matters. Achane only had 5 TD in situations where the game was in doubt. When it mattered, Mostert was in when the game was on the line, and he was their bell cow.
I get it, fantasy doesn't differentiate or discriminate when fantasy production occurs, but if the games were closer and all we saw at the end of the year was a total of 750 YFS and 5 TD, people would be looking at Achane as a backup / handcuff with upside and not the second coming of Marshall Tomlinson.
Digging deeper . . . The most carries Achane got last year came in 3 games: 19 vs. DEN (a 50-point win), 17 vs. WAS (a 30-point win), and 14 against BAL (a 37-point loss). He only had two other games with 10 or more carries: 11 against NYG and 10 against BUF. Including the playoffs, he had 7 games with single digit carries, in which he scored:
NEP - 2.9
BUF - 27.0
LVR - 1.5
TEN - 12.1
NYJ - 9.2
DAL - 4.1
KCC - 6.0
At those point, the ASSUMPTION is that Achane is going to now become an equal to Mostert (or potentially overtake him), but last year there was no indication that that was the direction things were headed. As I posted in detail earlier, McDaniel's history or RB usage is not to rely on one back unless there were multiple injuries in the RB group. IMO, if Mostert did get hurt, I am not sure that Achane would get a ton more carries, as I believe Wright (or others) would step in to fill the void. I don't think we see Achane having many games with 15 carries.
200 touches for about 1,200 yds and 12 TDs, 52 catches, don't think that is outlandish and all predicated on Achane being able to start or suit up healthy for 15-16 games.
What have you got?
Over those last 7 games, Achane totaled 93.5 fantasy points in PPR leagues, averaging 10 carries, 2.86 receptions, and 13.35 ppg. On a per game basis, that scoring average would have ranked as RB21 last season and a fraction of a point from RB23. Give him more touches, that will go up. Give him more efficiency, that will go up. Give him a lingering injury, that might go down. Obviously in the total points scored rankings, missing several games could cause a big drop off in his final ranking.
This is why I think Wright is the play here. If Mostert is out, IMO, that helps Wright way more than it helps Achane. If Achane is out, it helps Wright way more than it helps Mostert. Ostensibly, Achane didn't play in 7 games last year and Mostert missed 2. In that scenario, as far as I am concerned, Wright would have had a large enough role in 9 games if he was around last year. I know predicting injuries is both hard to do and hard to rely on, but the thought of having Wright for half a season as a fantasy starter (in theory) is worth more than having to take Achane too early for my blood . . . and Mostert is old for top tier RB production (ie, probably won't have a repeat in workload from last year . . . having that many TD again is a pipe dream).The Ice Bowl in KC might be bringing down some of your score there.As this is just a slice of the MIA RB pie, it would be hard to fully comment without projections for the other MIA backs. The reason I say that is the sum of the parts may make the total team projection too high. But what you posted probably isn't unreasonable. That being said, once Achane returned from injury, in his last 6 regular season games and the playoff game, he put up 70-348-4.97-3 with 20-147-7.35-1. We all can play with the numbers however we want, but IMO, that's a more likely baseline to start with than working off his crazy bender he went on early in the season. I think teams adjusted their defense accordingly after that, and as I mentioned earlier, he put up a lot of empty calories in blowouts in garbage time.150/750/8TDs plus 52/420/4TDsNot mentioned so far is the fact that Achane had 250+ yards and 6 TD in garbage time in blowouts last year. Most of that came in a win by 50 points against DEN and a 30-point win against WAS. Mostert was essentially done for the day and MIA was just killing the clock in the second half. (He had limited 4th quarter work against NYJ and BAL as well.) IMO, this stuff matters. Achane only had 5 TD in situations where the game was in doubt. When it mattered, Mostert was in when the game was on the line, and he was their bell cow.
I get it, fantasy doesn't differentiate or discriminate when fantasy production occurs, but if the games were closer and all we saw at the end of the year was a total of 750 YFS and 5 TD, people would be looking at Achane as a backup / handcuff with upside and not the second coming of Marshall Tomlinson.
Digging deeper . . . The most carries Achane got last year came in 3 games: 19 vs. DEN (a 50-point win), 17 vs. WAS (a 30-point win), and 14 against BAL (a 37-point loss). He only had two other games with 10 or more carries: 11 against NYG and 10 against BUF. Including the playoffs, he had 7 games with single digit carries, in which he scored:
NEP - 2.9
BUF - 27.0
LVR - 1.5
TEN - 12.1
NYJ - 9.2
DAL - 4.1
KCC - 6.0
At those point, the ASSUMPTION is that Achane is going to now become an equal to Mostert (or potentially overtake him), but last year there was no indication that that was the direction things were headed. As I posted in detail earlier, McDaniel's history or RB usage is not to rely on one back unless there were multiple injuries in the RB group. IMO, if Mostert did get hurt, I am not sure that Achane would get a ton more carries, as I believe Wright (or others) would step in to fill the void. I don't think we see Achane having many games with 15 carries.
200 touches for about 1,200 yds and 12 TDs, 52 catches, don't think that is outlandish and all predicated on Achane being able to start or suit up healthy for 15-16 games.
What have you got?
Over those last 7 games, Achane totaled 93.5 fantasy points in PPR leagues, averaging 10 carries, 2.86 receptions, and 13.35 ppg. On a per game basis, that scoring average would have ranked as RB21 last season and a fraction of a point from RB23. Give him more touches, that will go up. Give him more efficiency, that will go up. Give him a lingering injury, that might go down. Obviously in the total points scored rankings, missing several games could cause a big drop off in his final ranking.
About 500 yds and 5 TD with 15+ catches in 6 games...
I projected 1200/12TD, we're not that far off from each other, I moved his yds per carry down a lot from almost 8 to 5 yds
And what if he does get some more empty calories? Miami schedule isn't that tough
His ADP is running about 25th overall right now, with a Wright handcuff late, he's a decent gamble in the Mid 3rd of a 10 team league, RB2 with a lot of upside
Mostert in the 7th or 8th and Wright handcuff works as well but I do think Mostert is winding down. He generally is going to see 180-200 carries max and now with Wright, they won't over use Mostert and that could lead to a lot of GMs not knowing who to start or when to start
Fully agree with this thought process. In addition, while Mostert has been pretty healthy the past two years, his durability the previous 5-6 years wasn’t good, despite a fairly light workload.This is why I think Wright is the play here. If Mostert is out, IMO, that helps Wright way more than it helps Achane. If Achane is out, it helps Wright way more than it helps Mostert. Ostensibly, Achane didn't play in 7 games last year and Mostert missed 2. In that scenario, as far as I am concerned, Wright would have had a large enough role in 9 games if he was around last year. I know predicting injuries is both hard to do and hard to rely on, but the thought of having Wright for half a season as a fantasy starter (in theory) is worth more than having to take Achane too early for my blood . . . and Mostert is old for top tier RB production (ie, probably won't have a repeat in workload from last year . . . having that many TD again is a pipe dream).The Ice Bowl in KC might be bringing down some of your score there.As this is just a slice of the MIA RB pie, it would be hard to fully comment without projections for the other MIA backs. The reason I say that is the sum of the parts may make the total team projection too high. But what you posted probably isn't unreasonable. That being said, once Achane returned from injury, in his last 6 regular season games and the playoff game, he put up 70-348-4.97-3 with 20-147-7.35-1. We all can play with the numbers however we want, but IMO, that's a more likely baseline to start with than working off his crazy bender he went on early in the season. I think teams adjusted their defense accordingly after that, and as I mentioned earlier, he put up a lot of empty calories in blowouts in garbage time.150/750/8TDs plus 52/420/4TDsNot mentioned so far is the fact that Achane had 250+ yards and 6 TD in garbage time in blowouts last year. Most of that came in a win by 50 points against DEN and a 30-point win against WAS. Mostert was essentially done for the day and MIA was just killing the clock in the second half. (He had limited 4th quarter work against NYJ and BAL as well.) IMO, this stuff matters. Achane only had 5 TD in situations where the game was in doubt. When it mattered, Mostert was in when the game was on the line, and he was their bell cow.
I get it, fantasy doesn't differentiate or discriminate when fantasy production occurs, but if the games were closer and all we saw at the end of the year was a total of 750 YFS and 5 TD, people would be looking at Achane as a backup / handcuff with upside and not the second coming of Marshall Tomlinson.
Digging deeper . . . The most carries Achane got last year came in 3 games: 19 vs. DEN (a 50-point win), 17 vs. WAS (a 30-point win), and 14 against BAL (a 37-point loss). He only had two other games with 10 or more carries: 11 against NYG and 10 against BUF. Including the playoffs, he had 7 games with single digit carries, in which he scored:
NEP - 2.9
BUF - 27.0
LVR - 1.5
TEN - 12.1
NYJ - 9.2
DAL - 4.1
KCC - 6.0
At those point, the ASSUMPTION is that Achane is going to now become an equal to Mostert (or potentially overtake him), but last year there was no indication that that was the direction things were headed. As I posted in detail earlier, McDaniel's history or RB usage is not to rely on one back unless there were multiple injuries in the RB group. IMO, if Mostert did get hurt, I am not sure that Achane would get a ton more carries, as I believe Wright (or others) would step in to fill the void. I don't think we see Achane having many games with 15 carries.
200 touches for about 1,200 yds and 12 TDs, 52 catches, don't think that is outlandish and all predicated on Achane being able to start or suit up healthy for 15-16 games.
What have you got?
Over those last 7 games, Achane totaled 93.5 fantasy points in PPR leagues, averaging 10 carries, 2.86 receptions, and 13.35 ppg. On a per game basis, that scoring average would have ranked as RB21 last season and a fraction of a point from RB23. Give him more touches, that will go up. Give him more efficiency, that will go up. Give him a lingering injury, that might go down. Obviously in the total points scored rankings, missing several games could cause a big drop off in his final ranking.
About 500 yds and 5 TD with 15+ catches in 6 games...
I projected 1200/12TD, we're not that far off from each other, I moved his yds per carry down a lot from almost 8 to 5 yds
And what if he does get some more empty calories? Miami schedule isn't that tough
His ADP is running about 25th overall right now, with a Wright handcuff late, he's a decent gamble in the Mid 3rd of a 10 team league, RB2 with a lot of upside
Mostert in the 7th or 8th and Wright handcuff works as well but I do think Mostert is winding down. He generally is going to see 180-200 carries max and now with Wright, they won't over use Mostert and that could lead to a lot of GMs not knowing who to start or when to start
I got Mostert round 6 and then Wright round 11 in a recent 12 team nonppr league. Felt like once I got Mostert, I had to beat the Achane owner to him. I feel pretty good about the combo.Wright is essentially free in 12 team redraft
Mostert has a little helium underneath him this week, but even still, getting last year’s RB3 at RB21-23 doesn’t feel like overpaying
I keep trying to trade him in dynasty and there are no takers...most everyone sees the risk here
I’ve been offered Achane in my one keeper league but the guy wants Chase in return. I countered with waddle or Garrett Wilson and he said those guys weren’t enough to give Achane up so we are at an impasse. I’m in on him but not for ChaseI keep trying to trade him in dynasty and there are no takers...most everyone sees the risk here
I think Garrett Wilson is MORE than fair, and I obviously like Achane. TBH, think Achane side would have to balance a bit with a mid round pick.I’ve been offered Achane in my one keeper league but the guy wants Chase in return. I countered with waddle or Garrett Wilson and he said those guys weren’t enough to give Achane up so we are at an impasse. I’m in on him but not for ChaseI keep trying to trade him in dynasty and there are no takers...most everyone sees the risk here
Which ones were clocked at 4.31 in the 40?Digging deep . . . like REALLY deep. Here are some other rookie RBs that had limited usage but high fantasy production . . . (total touches, YFS, TD). Fantasy ranking in 0 PPR leagues. All of them averaged 0.85 fantasy points per touch or better.
Jon Keyworth, DEN, 1974: 93/483/10 (RB22)
Jon Keyworth, DEN, 1975: 224/1039/4 (RB18)
Bo Jackson, LAR, 1987: 97/690/6 (RB27)
Bo Jackson, LAR, 1988: 145/659/3 (RB47)
Ron Davenport, MIA, 1985: 111/444/13 (RB34)
Ron Davenport, MIA, 1986: 95/491/1 (RB70)
Karlos Williams, BUF, 2015: 104/613/9 (RB31)
(Never played another game in the league)
Stan Fritts, CIN, 1975: 100/438/10 (RB31)
Stan Fritts, CIN, 1976: 56/275/3 (RB81)
David Sims, SEA, 1977: 111/545/8 (RB31)
David Sims, SEA, 1978: 204/947/15 (RB9)
Jim Bertelsen, LAR, 1972: 152/912/6 (RB24)
Jim Bertelsen, LAR, 1973: 225/1121/5 (RB15)
Billy Jackson, KCC, 1981: 117/429/11 (RB34)
Billy Jackson, KCC, 1982: 91/284/3 (RB40) (Strike year)
Tim Spencer, SDG, 1985: 135/613/10 (RB35)
Tim Spencer, SDG, 1986: 105/398/6 (RB49)
Onterrio Smith, MIN, 2003: 122/708/5 (RB37)
Onterrio Smith, MIN, 2004: 160/938/4 (RB31)
Darren McFadden, OAK, 2008: 142/784/4 (RB44)
Darren McFadden, OAK, 2009: 125/602/1 (RB56)
Rodney Culver, IND, 1992: 147/531/9 (RB28)
Rodney Culver, IND, 1993: 76/262/4 (RB65)
Kevan Barlow, SFO, 2001: 147/759/5 (RB30)
Kevan Barlow, SFO, 2002: 159/811/5 (RB35)
None of these guys were Achane, as he was a statistical unicorn last season, but they all scored a lot of fantasy points on limited touches. Many of them were TD heavy, and that's one of the challenges . . . predicting TDs with an expected larger workload. The game is way different now than the eras that these backs played, but of these historical examples, only one of them ended up in the Top 10 RBs the following season. This is for illustrative purposes only . . . ie, just trying to find examples of other backs that remotely fit in the box that Achane was in last year.
Mostert is 32. The end comes quickly in the night for guys this age. It's just the reality of the game, and usually the cliff is a lot steeper than anyone cares to admit. Mostert's already beaten the odds by doing what he's done at his age, but with each year those odds become even longer to beat again. I wish all the best to the guy, I actually think a productive Mostert is good for DA, but father time is undefeated. And color me unimpressed with Wright as more than a gadget guy for now. DA gives me Chris Johnson vibes. Wright has more of a Jerious Norwood feel to him. I'll be monitoring him for sure, but I'll be spending my handcuff money elsewhere.Not mentioned so far is the fact that Achane had 250+ yards and 6 TD in garbage time in blowouts last year. Most of that came in a win by 50 points against DEN and a 30-point win against WAS. Mostert was essentially done for the day and MIA was just killing the clock in the second half. (He had limited 4th quarter work against NYJ and BAL as well.) IMO, this stuff matters. Achane only had 5 TD in situations where the game was in doubt. When it mattered, Mostert was in when the game was on the line, and he was their bell cow.
I get it, fantasy doesn't differentiate or discriminate when fantasy production occurs, but if the games were closer and all we saw at the end of the year was a total of 750 YFS and 5 TD, people would be looking at Achane as a backup / handcuff with upside and not the second coming of Marshall Tomlinson.
Digging deeper . . . The most carries Achane got last year came in 3 games: 19 vs. DEN (a 50-point win), 17 vs. WAS (a 30-point win), and 14 against BAL (a 37-point loss). He only had two other games with 10 or more carries: 11 against NYG and 10 against BUF. Including the playoffs, he had 7 games with single digit carries, in which he scored:
NEP - 2.9
BUF - 27.0
LVR - 1.5
TEN - 12.1
NYJ - 9.2
DAL - 4.1
KCC - 6.0
At those point, the ASSUMPTION is that Achane is going to now become an equal to Mostert (or potentially overtake him), but last year there was no indication that that was the direction things were headed. As I posted in detail earlier, McDaniel's history or RB usage is not to rely on one back unless there were multiple injuries in the RB group. IMO, if Mostert did get hurt, I am not sure that Achane would get a ton more carries, as I believe Wright (or others) would step in to fill the void. I don't think we see Achane having many games with 15 carries.