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RB Derrick Henry, BAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
I really think the Dallas No Offer brief will pick up steam unless their drafted back is great.
They love Dorsett and Emmitt and Earl is always around the state and it was a bit odd they had a chance at another great and didn't even offer. Dak contract stuff and flopping in playoffs...Jerry could be taking some heat.
It's very odd because they'll always sign UDFAs from Texas because of Texas pride and so he can sell preseason tickets and...it's just un-Jerry like to ignore a back that lives in Dallas.
We'll see. I might be off but I'm predicting some unhappiness and why didn't you sign Henry stuff to come up again
Ravens posted the usual walk up video but if ya notice, Henry is showing up to his first day with a notebook and books.
He's such a gem.
Imagine thinking you worked out enough and seeing his videos. Imagine thinking you studied some and you see him bringing his notebook.
Remember, this is the kid that so many HOF backs took a shine to and went to Yulee HS and Alabama to sit with him and then Eddie and Earl did in the pros. He had the best teachers/advisors of any back ever. They're probably seeing that video yelling "that's my guy" and loving seeing the books too
He's such a gem.
Imagine thinking you worked out enough and seeing his videos. Imagine thinking you studied some and you see him bringing his notebook.
Remember, this is the kid that so many HOF backs took a shine to and went to Yulee HS and Alabama to sit with him and then Eddie and Earl did in the pros. He had the best teachers/advisors of any back ever. They're probably seeing that video yelling "that's my guy" and loving seeing the books too
-OZ-
Footballguy
despite the multiple former titans that played later in Baltimore, this year will be the first time I’m actively cheering for the ravens. I think many titans fans will feel the same.Ravens posted the usual walk up video but if ya notice, Henry is showing up to his first day with a notebook and books.
He's such a gem.
Imagine thinking you worked out enough and seeing his videos. Imagine thinking you studied some and you see him bringing his notebook.
Remember, this is the kid that so many HOF backs took a shine to and went to Yulee HS and Alabama to sit with him and then Eddie and Earl did in the pros. He had the best teachers/advisors of any back ever. They're probably seeing that video yelling "that's my guy" and loving seeing the books too
It’s almost too bad they won’t matchup unless it’s in the playoffs.
You didn't cheer for McNair in Baltimore?despite the multiple former titans that played later in Baltimore, this year will be the first time I’m actively cheering for the ravens. I think many titans fans will feel the same.Ravens posted the usual walk up video but if ya notice, Henry is showing up to his first day with a notebook and books.
He's such a gem.
Imagine thinking you worked out enough and seeing his videos. Imagine thinking you studied some and you see him bringing his notebook.
Remember, this is the kid that so many HOF backs took a shine to and went to Yulee HS and Alabama to sit with him and then Eddie and Earl did in the pros. He had the best teachers/advisors of any back ever. They're probably seeing that video yelling "that's my guy" and loving seeing the books too
It’s almost too bad they won’t matchup unless it’s in the playoffs.
-OZ-
Footballguy
I didn’t actively cheer against but we had just left Kansas so I was still cheering a bit for the chiefs. Lions are my childhood team and the titans are top on my list. Plus I was busy at the basic course. I couldn’t cheer for 4 teams.You didn't cheer for McNair in Baltimore?despite the multiple former titans that played later in Baltimore, this year will be the first time I’m actively cheering for the ravens. I think many titans fans will feel the same.Ravens posted the usual walk up video but if ya notice, Henry is showing up to his first day with a notebook and books.
He's such a gem.
Imagine thinking you worked out enough and seeing his videos. Imagine thinking you studied some and you see him bringing his notebook.
Remember, this is the kid that so many HOF backs took a shine to and went to Yulee HS and Alabama to sit with him and then Eddie and Earl did in the pros. He had the best teachers/advisors of any back ever. They're probably seeing that video yelling "that's my guy" and loving seeing the books too
It’s almost too bad they won’t matchup unless it’s in the playoffs.
satch
Footballguy
Any concern that, given the team’s propensity to use multiple backs, LJ’s rushing, and in an effort to keep him fresh/available for the inevitable playoffs, Henry may be a low-ceiling TD dependent fantasy RB throughout the fantasy season?
I do expect he’ll score a bunch of TDs, but without a significant rushing workload, how much better will Henry be than a 2023 Gus Edwards? Not that 2023 Gus Edwards+ is necessarily a bad thing for fantasy, but it feels like Henry is being valued as much more than that and I’m not sure the reality will match the lofty expectations due to a potentially somewhat limited workload.
I do expect he’ll score a bunch of TDs, but without a significant rushing workload, how much better will Henry be than a 2023 Gus Edwards? Not that 2023 Gus Edwards+ is necessarily a bad thing for fantasy, but it feels like Henry is being valued as much more than that and I’m not sure the reality will match the lofty expectations due to a potentially somewhat limited workload.
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-OZ-
Footballguy
Lots of things are possible and I don’t think he’ll lead the league in attempts like he has 4 of the last 5 years. But his y/a practically has to increase, probably over 5.
IMO he’s the second most likely RB to have a top 10 season. Unlikely to be the 1 or 2.
kutta
Footballguy
Henry and Edwards aren’t in nearly the same league. I think Henry will feast this year.
satch
Footballguy
What do you consider “feasting?”
Scoresman
Footballguy
Also, speaking of concerns, didn’t Baltimore lose a few starters on the OL and are essentially rebuilding it?
I’m having a hard time projecting Baltimore skill players because of this.
satch
Footballguy
Pro Football Network ranks Baltimore as having the 20th best offensive line, noting the losses you mentioned.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
The last couple of years Henry has been running behind about the 30th best line in Tennessee.
-OZ-
Footballguy
30th seems way too high.
Ravens players and staff have fun stories of Henry if you feel like googling or searching on Sirius.
He rrrrreally hurt their pride by plowing over that tough defense for years. I didn't realize how many players missed snaps due to tackling him or how bitter they were all off-season(s) about it.
Their coach is named Harbaugh.
Henry is a missing piece to a toughness they want to bring.
Insert a John Madden quote here or a boxing quote. His smashmouth style is there to "smash mouths."
Lamar and Co would love nothing more than to run a single sneak for 30 yards but also to play against a "punch drunk" defense.
Your projections gotta include establishing some toughness.
Harbaugh will lose his mind if Henry only gets eight carries or Lamar has to throw it fifty times.
Which does Harbaugh like more-
Henry running 20 times for 50 total yards and winning a game 9-6 or Lamar throwing for 500 and they win 42-38?
Lamar and Andrews will get theirs, no doubt, but if ya can't project for a Harbaugh than predict as if Parcells or Gibbs is coaching this team. Some of the stuff I see is absurd and doesn't at all match all the quotes n talk from Baltimore.
He rrrrreally hurt their pride by plowing over that tough defense for years. I didn't realize how many players missed snaps due to tackling him or how bitter they were all off-season(s) about it.
Their coach is named Harbaugh.
Henry is a missing piece to a toughness they want to bring.
Insert a John Madden quote here or a boxing quote. His smashmouth style is there to "smash mouths."
Lamar and Co would love nothing more than to run a single sneak for 30 yards but also to play against a "punch drunk" defense.
Your projections gotta include establishing some toughness.
Harbaugh will lose his mind if Henry only gets eight carries or Lamar has to throw it fifty times.
Which does Harbaugh like more-
Henry running 20 times for 50 total yards and winning a game 9-6 or Lamar throwing for 500 and they win 42-38?
Lamar and Andrews will get theirs, no doubt, but if ya can't project for a Harbaugh than predict as if Parcells or Gibbs is coaching this team. Some of the stuff I see is absurd and doesn't at all match all the quotes n talk from Baltimore.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
Scoresman
Footballguy
They're an RBBC with LJ though.
I'm sure he'll do just fine, but I think he may get overprojected a bit. He has all this going against him.
- Sharing carries with LJ
- Baltimore OL is rebuilding. We dont know what that will look like and the effect it will have on the offense.
- His age and carry history. His YPC has been declining steadily.
- More mouths to feed in BAL compared to TEN will probably result in TD regression.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Baltimore had a very "Lamaresque" 2023 season, and he had 148 carries while Gus Edwards managed to carry 198 times. Other scrub RB's also carried a total of 166 times. Even if Lamar once again has 148 carries, I seriously doubt Henry is going to cede 46% of the RB carries to others. Last year, the BAL RB's combined for 20 rushing TD's and a 4.7 YPC. I guess somebody has to make the first prediction, so here goes (assuming no major time lost):
- 270 carries, 1270 yards, 13 TD's
- 30 receptions, 270 yards, 1 TD
- Finishes the season as RB6
kutta
Footballguy
Top 5 fantasy RB on the season. Potential to top 3.
Scoresman
Footballguy
You've got him at 4.7 YPC here when he hasn't approached this since 2020. Getting traded didn't make him 4 years younger. Maybe with Baltimore's OL from last year but it's hard to justify this year.
Also 13 TDs is optimistic with all the mouths to feed in BAL. The number of TDs they scored last year was an outlier unlikely to be reproduced, especially with a rebuilt OL and a seemingly new emphasis on LJ the passing QB.
I think RB 12-13 is about right.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
What stats do you project to hit that RB 12-13 range?
-OZ-
Footballguy
You underestimate how bad the titans OL has been.
Scoresman
Footballguy
12-13 is a guess because I haven't finished projecting each team yet, but I have the following as a first cut projection for Henry:
270/1,161/9
I have him getting 73% of the team carries which is clear workhorse and still cant justify much higher numbers.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Last year sure, but I believe they were about middle of the pack the few years before that in terms of run blocking. I think that's a reasonable expectation for BAL's rebuilding of their OL.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Our rushing numbers are pretty close. Our biggest difference I see isn't YPC, it's TD's. You have Henry getting 73% of the team RB carries, but only 9 TD's?
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Well, Lamar hates handing the ball off. So anything is possible.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Yep, because it's hard to justify taking any away from other players. Yes, Gus had 13 last year, but last year was an outlier year for the Ravens and Gus Edwards in terms of rushing TDs. Gus Edward's career average was about 4-5 TDs. Projecting Henry with 9 seems more than generous for any RB who is competing for carries with LJ.
Somewhere around 13 TDs is certainly Henry's achievable ceiling, but I don't project to ceilings.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Time will tell, but I’d think Harbaugh would prefer his $52 million franchise QB to let Henry take the pounding. I think it’s the main reason they brought him in.
TheWinz
Footballguy
13 TD's is his ceiling? That's his average over the past 6 seasons. I'd say his ceiling is closer to 20.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Top 5? Are you insane? Top 6 I can see though.
Scoresman
Footballguy
But who else was a threat to score on the Titans?13 TD's is his ceiling? That's his average over the past 6 seasons. I'd say his ceiling is closer to 20.
Scoresman
Footballguy
That’s a good point and they already have been reducing LJs designed carries for a few years now. He still always manages to get his though.
I feel like I'm gonna be on a pretty big island with Henry here, but I'm not getting these low YPC totals at all. I'd be SHOCKED if he was under 5.0 YPC. I think there is some greatly underappreciating how much playing with Lamar Jackson adds. Lamar has been carrying this running game for years, making average (or worse) talents look good. Street FAs were coming in and putting up 4.4 a carry, but Henry won't? I'd say Lamar adds a full yard per carry by himself. Henry will be seeing less defensive attention than he's seen since he broke out in 2018, if not ever. He could legit see some 6-man boxes, which never happens for him.
I haven't seen this huge decline from Henry. His YPC has gone down, but that's a direct Titans issue not a Henry one. His YAC has gone down slightly but is still easily top-10 in the NFL, and that should go back up when the tacklers are LBs and DBs and not DTs. Henry still has elite big play ability (only Achane, Hall, Gibbs, CMC, and Warren had a higher % of runs over 15 yards) and Henry has been improving as a pass catcher.
The Ravens have had over 18 rushing TDs in every season but 1 since Lamar became starter. That season was the 2022 season, where they basically ran out of RBs and were down to street FA Kenyan Drake. In their first season with Todd Monken calling plays they had 26 rushing TDs. I feel like 20 rushing TDs is a fair over/under.
I'm gonna be really bullish on Henry. I think he's a strong candidate to win the rushing title and lead the position in rushing TDs. I can argue Henry as high as RB2 overall. I think RB9 is his absolute floor, and that's with the unlikely scenario that Keaton Mitchell is both ready week 1 and getting 7-8 carries a game, and still being explosive.
I haven't seen this huge decline from Henry. His YPC has gone down, but that's a direct Titans issue not a Henry one. His YAC has gone down slightly but is still easily top-10 in the NFL, and that should go back up when the tacklers are LBs and DBs and not DTs. Henry still has elite big play ability (only Achane, Hall, Gibbs, CMC, and Warren had a higher % of runs over 15 yards) and Henry has been improving as a pass catcher.
The Ravens have had over 18 rushing TDs in every season but 1 since Lamar became starter. That season was the 2022 season, where they basically ran out of RBs and were down to street FA Kenyan Drake. In their first season with Todd Monken calling plays they had 26 rushing TDs. I feel like 20 rushing TDs is a fair over/under.
I'm gonna be really bullish on Henry. I think he's a strong candidate to win the rushing title and lead the position in rushing TDs. I can argue Henry as high as RB2 overall. I think RB9 is his absolute floor, and that's with the unlikely scenario that Keaton Mitchell is both ready week 1 and getting 7-8 carries a game, and still being explosive.
TheWinz
Footballguy
Exactly my point. Everyone on the D knew it was the Derrick Henry show, and they still couldn't stop him. Double digit rushing TD's for 6 straight years. You know who else has done that? Only LT and ADP. And funny enough, both hit double digits at the age of 30.But who else was a threat to score on the Titans?13 TD's is his ceiling? That's his average over the past 6 seasons. I'd say his ceiling is closer to 20.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Right, it was the Derrick Henry show for sure. Of course he’s going to do the things he did when he was the only mouth to feed. But in Baltimore, TDs will be spread out way more.Exactly my point. Everyone on the D knew it was the Derrick Henry show, and they still couldn't stop him. Double digit rushing TD's for 6 straight years. You know who else has done that? Only LT and ADP. And funny enough, both hit double digits at the age of 30.But who else was a threat to score on the Titans?13 TD's is his ceiling? That's his average over the past 6 seasons. I'd say his ceiling is closer to 20.
nightmare
Footballguy
That game plan could also be flipped. In between the 20's you utilize whomever and at the red zone's you have the battering ram move the ball.Right, it was the Derrick Henry show for sure. Of course he’s going to do the things he did when he was the only mouth to feed. But in Baltimore, TDs will be spread out way more.Exactly my point. Everyone on the D knew it was the Derrick Henry show, and they still couldn't stop him. Double digit rushing TD's for 6 straight years. You know who else has done that? Only LT and ADP. And funny enough, both hit double digits at the age of 30.But who else was a threat to score on the Titans?13 TD's is his ceiling? That's his average over the past 6 seasons. I'd say his ceiling is closer to 20.
I don't think they signed D Henry to play for 3 seasons. Last year they clinched home field for the entire playoffs. Time to make it to the AFC championship, minimum.
Tau837
Footballguy
The carries last season broke down like this (including postseason):
- Scrambles: 79
- Jackson 72
- Huntley 7
- Designed running plays: 520
- RBs: 401
- Edwards 211
- Hill 100
- Mitchell 47
- Gordon 26
- Dobbins 8
- Cook 8
- Drake 1
- QBs: 103
- Jackson 95
- Huntley 8
- WRs: 15
- Flowers 10
- Duvernay 4
- Bateman 1
- TEs: 1
- Andrews 1
- RBs: 401
Henry averaged 4.3 ypc over his last 3 seasons combined. He also scored a rushing TD every 24.2 carries. Using that data, his rushing would project to 240/1032/10, ignoring week 18. That is if he stays healthy, obviously.
He is probably getting an upgrade in run blocking plus the upgrade from Jackson getting so much attention, so that could bump those numbers up a bit. Maybe 240/1100/11. I know the Ravens are rebuilding their OL, but PFF graded their run blocking at #6 last season, compared to #18 for the Titans. Run blocking includes all players, not just OL, though obviously they are most important.
He has only scored 3 receiving TDs in his career on 202 targets, and the last one he scored was in 2019, so I wouldn't project one. I suppose 30/270/0 receiving is reasonable enough.
240/1100/11 rushing and 30/270/0 receiving would have been around RB10 last season in 1 PPR.
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fatness
Footballguy
I have to ask --- where is this coming from?
kutta
Footballguy
I don’t understand the logic of using YPC from a different team, and average carries from last year’s team with a bunch of below average RB’s. Even the small concessions are just swags added to already bad data.
I mean, I appreciate the work to come up with projections. But the truth is that we really have no idea what’s going to happen in Baltimore. My guess is that Henry is still one of the top RB’s in the league, and the Ravens will use him a lot, and he will have a ton of goal line carries. But I think trying to project actual numbers is an exercise in futility.
Tau837
Footballguy
If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.
I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.
To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.
What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I'm thinking Henry is probably overrated right now and selling is ideal if you can get something decent for him.
kutta
Footballguy
Randy Moss had 60/1005/8 and 42/553/3 the two years he spent in Oakland. His first year in NE he had 98/1423/23. And, Brady’s TD’s went from 24 the previous year to 50 in Moss’ first year.
If one wants to use data to form a baseline and then adjust from there, it seems reasonable to use Henry's actual YPC and rushing TD rate over his past 3 seasons and the offensive data from last year's Ravens offense, which will have the same coaches and most of the same players in 2024.
I agree that it is impossible to accurately predict the numbers, but one can find a basis to be super optimistic, like top 3 fantasy RB, or more moderately optimistic, like RB10. I was simply offering that moderately optimistic take.
To be much more generalized, I doubt anyone would argue that he will be one of the best RBs and will be used a lot. None of that is controversial.
What matters a lot for his fantasy prospects is how many TDs you think he will get, since he likely will not offer much in the passing game. You say he will have a ton of goal line carries, but that is already baked into his TD rate... he had the 5th highest total of RB carries inside the opponents' 5 yard line in the league over the past 3 seasons despite missing 10 games over that span.
It would have been a big mistake to use his Oakland numbers, and NE’s previous year numbers, as a baseline for his NE production. He left a dysfunctional team for one that knew how to use him. Henry is doing that too.
