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RB Derrius Guice, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

Dr. Octopus said:
I think Thompson will be the 3rd down back even if Guice shows he's capable in the passing game - Thompson is very good in that role and spelling even a workhorse type back is necessary. Just because Thompson is the main guy for that role doesn't mean Guice will not see work in the passing game however. Teams do pass on first and second downs and Guice may occasionally be left in on passing downs or 2 minute drills. I can see Guice ending up with 30-32 receptions (which helps in ppr) which is only 2 a game on average.

Of course there's always the (strong) possibility Thompson misses games with injury so those reception totals have room to grow.
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Great post. Not only do teams throw to RB’s on first and second down it’s been shown that there is a higher success rate on those downs and throwing to a RB on third down is highly inefficient (why some people have moved away from the term 3rd down RB). I’m rooting for Guice. Thompson is going to cap his potential some but if he gets hurt (again) it’s all systems go.

 
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I think that worst case scenario, a healthy Thompson will play Kamara to Giice’s Ingram. Whether it’s a poor man’s version of that backfield remains to be seen but Thompson was stupidly efficient last year and Guice may get more run than Ingram ever did on the Saints (you know, because Sean Payton loathes giving Mark Ingram the ball)

 
gabes1919 said:
I think that worst case scenario, a healthy Thompson will play Kamara to Giice’s Ingram. Whether it’s a poor man’s version of that backfield remains to be seen but Thompson was stupidly efficient last year and Guice may get more run than Ingram ever did on the Saints (you know, because Sean Payton loathes giving Mark Ingram the ball)
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I am going to go out on a limb and say they would be the poor mans version of the Saints backfield last year. 

 
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I have him as clear #2 rookie behind Barkley.......may take some time to figure out Thompson's role but think they'll be lots of work for Guice

 
I have a little concern developing while working on projections. Jay Gruden has only had one back the last 5 years over 47% handling carries. Also seems he likes to keep his offenses in the upper 50%’s for pass to run ratio. Plus his offense doesn’t appear to target RB’s as much as I believed. 88 collective targets as a high over his 7 years in the NFL. That’s the bad news...

The good news: Alf Morris handled 66% of the carries in ‘14, Cedric Benson 60% in ‘11 and BJE 65% in ‘12. So if Guice is as good as I think, I will probably be projecting him with some nice rushing volume for he upcoming season. 

 
zamboni said:
Was actually hoping he'd struggle a bit because I think he's going to be a hot draft commodity among rookie RBs after Barkley is universally taken first. 
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Every year the rookies get super hyped at just about the worst time for drafts. I had been drooling over Dalvin all last year and his fluc. Howetuating $14-17 AAV throughout the off season. I ended up shelling $28 (200 budget). It goes to show that you should expect to pay top dollar for rooks especially because of the fantasy success rate in recent years. Still $28 wouldve been a steal for a healthy Cook last year and Intend to spend about the same on Guice this year. 

Superior talent, Good O-line, need for offensive identity, high draft capital.... Guice has RB1 upside for $20-30 bucks or say 3rd/4th round.

However, it will be interesting to see how much last years Rookie RB phenomenon at RB  inflates the rooks this year. 

If reports throughout camp and preseason continue to be positive for Guice I will definitely be spending on him.

 
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PPRGuy said:
However, it will be interesting to see how much last years Rookie RB phenomenon at RB  inflates the rooks this year. 
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without a doubt this is true. many of these rookies are only 20 years old. lots of room for development not only physically but mentally. also, look at the hype generated for Freeman, Chubb, and Johnson. all 3 will either start the season behind 1 or 2 backs, or will be in a timeshare. wont those owners be surprised when they get numbers similar to Mixons rookie year... 

the 3 backs I see making the biggest 2018 impact are Barkley, Guice, Rojo. all 3 have very favorable situations and some pretty intriguing talent. Penny might be "on the bubble" but 1) I don't like him at all, 2) Carson looks really good and could push for rbbc, and 3) a lot has changed since a Seattle rb was fantasy relevant. 

The more I read into Guice the more I'm convinced he's the real deal and the #1 rookie rb you want on your team if you cant land Barkley

 
Faust said:
Doug Williams, Redskins impressed by Derrius Guice so far
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“You got a lot of vets around here,” Guice said. “They pretty much welcome you with their arms open and take you under their wings and stuff. They do a lot. They just make it easier. They’re not stuck up vets that just want to play. They want to help everybody out to make sure we win.”
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This is neat to hear. Last year there were a few articles about how a similar attitude was in the GB running back locker room- even among the rookies, they just liked learning from each other and were good friends. You have to think that this is the rule and not the exception across the NFL; that there are only a few divas out there worried about themselves and don't want to help the rookie (ex: Brett Favre with Rodgers)

 
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Dr. Dan said:
This is neat to hear. Last year there were a few articles about how a similar attitude was in the GB running back locker room- even among the rookies, they just liked learning from each other and were good friends. You have to think that this is the rule and not the exception across the NFL; that there are only a few divas out there worried about themselves and don't want to help the rookie (ex: Brett Favre with Rodgers)
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Yeah. It was really fun to watch Kamara and Ingraham having a blast when they were having great games. You could tell they were each other's biggest fans. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
look at the hype generated for Freeman, Chubb, and Johnson. all 3 will either start the season behind 1 or 2 backs, or will be in a timeshare. 
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I am very high on kerryon. 

Liked him at Auburn, has the 'basketball athlete' background/rapport in the passing game to take and excel in that role if asked, and running style has been compared to bell...

Not only have the Lions had a terrible identity in the run game for the past however many years, the team traded up to get him early in the 2nd ROUND and have created quite an good-athletically sound OLine when healthy! I think the Lions give him every opportunity to start and be the workhorse. A VERY similar situation to Dalvin Cook last year with Riddick and Blount being the Mckinnon and Latavius... (Abdullah is out for sure)

Again, however,
If Johnson, by the end of training camp/preseason, is taking first team snaps and beat writers are yelling from the roof for him then his price will more than double from his current AAV/ADP (So i expect to pay alot for him come draft time)

Guice and Kerryon are my 2 guys this year with RoJo a close (but probably too expensive) 3rd option for the rookie rb class

 
PPRGuy said:
I am very high on kerryon. 

Liked him at Auburn, has the 'basketball athlete' background/rapport in the passing game to take and excel in that role if asked, and running style has been compared to bell...

Not only have the Lions had a terrible identity in the run game for the past however many years, the team traded up to get him early in the 2nd ROUND and have created quite an good-athletically sound OLine when healthy! I think the Lions give him every opportunity to start and be the workhorse. A VERY similar situation to Dalvin Cook last year with Riddick and Blount being the Mckinnon and Latavius... (Abdullah is out for sure)

Again, however,
If Johnson, by the end of training camp/preseason, is taking first team snaps and beat writers are yelling from the roof for him then his price will more than double from his current AAV/ADP (So i expect to pay alot for him come draft time)

Guice and Kerryon are my 2 guys this year with RoJo a close (but probably too expensive) 3rd option for the rookie rb class
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 So you have Barkley 4th?

 
msudaisy26 said:
 So you have Barkley 4th?
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Barkley is firmly Cemented as my number 1. I will consider his first round price this year but I would rather go for the cheaper options which is where I was getting at with Guice and Kerryon being the best combo of value and upside. 

With no value implications my Rooke RB Ranks would be:

  1. Saquon Top 5 potential 
  2. Guice Top 10 Potential
  3. Rojo PPR Top 15 potential (Secure role, will be a factor in passing game, pretty assured Rb2)
  4. Kerryon Top 10-15 potential (if things fall his way the way I believe they will)
  5. Penny Top 15 potential (If seahawks truly commit to 1st round pick)
  6. Freeman
  7. Michel
  8. Chubb

 
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PPRGuy said:
Barkley is firmly Cemented as my number 1. I will consider his first round price this year but I would rather go for the cheaper options which is where I was getting at with Guice and Kerryon being the best combo of value and upside. 

With no value implications my Rooke RB Ranks would be:

  1. Saquon Top 5 potential 
  2. Guice Top 10 Potential
  3. Rojo PPR Top 15 potential (Secure role, will be a factor in passing game, pretty assured Rb2)
  4. Kerryon Top 10-15 potential (if things fall his way the way I believe they will)
  5. Penny Top 15 potential (If seahawks truly commit to 1st round pick)
  6. Freeman
  7. Michel
  8. Chubb
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you have 5 rookie RBs in the top 15 in redraft. and at least 3 of them are in a timeshare. I agree with Barkley but you have 4 more... that's pretty bold. which top 15 RBS will not make it:

Gurley, Bell, Zeke, DJ, Barkley, Kamara, Gordon, Hunt, Fournette, Cook, CMC, D Freeman, McKinnon, McCoy, Howard. 

The majority of the above are not in a timeshare. 

There is a very.good chance that all but Barkley, Guice, and maybe Rojo finish outside of the top 15. 

I look at that list and it's hard to find anyone who will slip. Maybe Freeman, McCoy slip out of the top 15 and Guice and Rojo are in. You could argue maybe McKinnon but he is the man there. 

 
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Dr. Dan said:
you have 5 rookie RBs in the top 15 in redraft. and at least 3 of them are in a timeshare. I agree with Barkley but you have 4 more... that's pretty bold. which top 15 RBS will not make it:

Gurley, Bell, Zeke, DJ, Barkley, Kamara, Gordon, Hunt, Fournette, Cook, CMC, D Freeman, McKinnon, McCoy, Howard. 

The majority of the above are not in a timeshare. 

There is a very.good chance that all but Barkley, Guice, and maybe Rojo finish outside of the top 15. 

I look at that list and it's hard to find anyone who will slip. Maybe Freeman, McCoy slip out of the top 15 and Guice and Rojo are in. You could argue maybe McKinnon but he is the man there. 
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Keyword: 'Potential' (these are rookies, of course its gonna be a risk)

Every year there are injuries, coaching changes, down-years, etc.

Would I take those top guys you mentioned ahead of those rookies.... Yes, probably all of them (maybe I edge out Guice over Mckinnon Howard Freeman if the hype gets too real)

But even if every rb is healthy and producing I will still assert that these guys have the potential to produce on the same level as those guys even if they are just nudged out of the top 10 or top 15 because they are a couple negligible points behind other RBs... 

Lets say freeman scores 250 points at RB9 and Guice scores 235 at RB17, I would still consider Guice a huge success and worthy of a top 10ish top 15ish season will be just 1 PPG behind other top 10 guys

 
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PPRGuy said:
Keyword: 'Potential' (these are rookies, of course its gonna be a risk)

Every year there are injuries, coaching changes, down-years, etc.

Would I take those top guys you mentioned ahead of those rookies.... Yes, probably all of them (maybe I edge out Guice over Mckinnon Howard Freeman if the hype gets too real)

But even if every rb is healthy and producing I will still assert that these guys have the potential to produce on the same level as those guys even if they are just nudged out of the top 10 or top 15 because they are a couple negligible points behind other RBs... 

Lets say freeman scores 250 points at RB9 and Guice scores 235 at RB17, I would still consider Guice a huge success and worthy of a top 10ish top 15ish season will be just 1 PPG behind other top 10 guys
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yes, i would agree. I find that in general we seem spoiled from last years rb success from rookies and many are expecting the same this year.

Johnson does intrigue me by the way

 I'd agree on your rankings but I'd swap penny and michel for 2018. in dynasty I'd have chubb #3 or 4

 
Trent Williams is a fan

Redskins tackle Trent Williams on Derrius Guice: "I'm just impressed with him. When you watch him on film it's like he's been here before. Physically he's a specimen. Extremely lucky to get him in the second round. I don't know how that happened but we'll gladly take him. He's going to be a top running back for a long time to come, and it's not going to take very long before people recognize him as an elite NFL talent, not just an elite college talent."

John Keim, ESPN Staff Writer
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I have Guice at 60% of the carries right now. I think it’s a little on the extreme side but it’s been all or nothing with Gruden. He either gives his between the tackles guy >60% or they’ve been injured/he doesn’t trust them. If he doesn’t trust Guice it’s going to be ugly for everyone as I doubt any one RB would see over 50% carry volume. We’ll see how preseason plays out but my projections have Guice doing big things even with the receiving volume going to Thompson (I think Guice can definitely operate as a 3 down back, I just think they are going to differ normal passing work to Thompson). Good news is Gruden was poo-poo’ing Perine already at this juncture last year. Been glowing about Guice.

 
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One can say OTA/minicamp reports don't mean a lot but if you drafted Guice this is the kind of stuff that gives you the good feels: Guice off-season report

 
ESPN's John Keim writes it would be "surprising" if second-rounder Derrius Guice does not open the season as the starter.

Washington does have Rob Kelley and Samaje Perine as options on early downs, but Guice should easily beat them out if he stays healthy in camp. How much the rookie does as a receiver is a bigger question, especially with Chris Thompson certain to be involved, but coach Jay Gruden commented on how good Guice looked as a receiver during the offseason program. He is unlikely to be a true "featured" back, but he should get enough work to pay off his late third-round ADP.

Source: ESPN 

Jun 26 - 10:22 AM
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Guice to present check to cancer center

So, last week, Guice began a GoFundMe campaign, asking anyone to send in whatever donations they could. “I want to continue to have people ring that bell and bring a cure to this disease that has touched almost everyone's life in some way or the other!” he wrote.

To help raise more money, Guice incentivized certain amounts, offering to play a game of Fortnite with anyone who sent in $5. Those who donated $25 would be entered into a contest to receive signed LSU cleats. For $50, Guice offered an afternoon of bowling, his favorite hobby, at a local lanes, while those who donated $100 would be entered to win two tickets to the Redskins’ Monday night game against the New Orleans Saints.
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Way to flip those predraft negatives into a positive. ?

 
Jay Gruden kills Guice's value. he's killed many a RBs value, actually. how many has it been now? Let's see, A. Morris, Kelley, Perine, Matt Jones, C. Thompson, Guice..

I think we've officially entered into the 'I'll believe it when I see it' stage. 

Gruden likes getting cute with passes, dump-offs, plays to the TE position. since he took over as HC in 2014, his offenses have ranked 20th,20th,21st, 28th..see a pattern here? he gets worse as his HC career goes on. this is the poster-child for underacheiving coach.

I'll take about 25 other RBs before Guice, maybe more. let someone else get stuck in the Jay Gruden bog..

 
Tanner9919 said:
Jay Gruden kills Guice's value. he's killed many a RBs value, actually. how many has it been now? Let's see, A. Morris, Kelley, Perine, Matt Jones, C. Thompson, Guice..

I think we've officially entered into the 'I'll believe it when I see it' stage. 

Gruden likes getting cute with passes, dump-offs, plays to the TE position. since he took over as HC in 2014, his offenses have ranked 20th,20th,21st, 28th..see a pattern here? he gets worse as his HC career goes on. this is the poster-child for underacheiving coach.

I'll take about 25 other RBs before Guice, maybe more. let someone else get stuck in the Jay Gruden bog..
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Alfred Morris was always a pretty average back that beneffied his rookie year from RG3 and the read option. The year before Gruden came, Alf averaged 11.6 ppr ppg and in the first year with Gruden he averaged 11.7 Three years later he is basically out of the league. So I am not sure what exactly was squandered. 

R. Kelley is the worst RB prospect I have ever seen and I mean that. He barely played at Tulane (200 yards rushing in 12 games as a senior, 3.6 ypc)  and a 2nd percentile athlete. How on earth he even made in the NFL yet alone had a 786 yard 7 TD season is shocking. 

Perine was a 4th round pick and probably nohing more than an a replacment level short yardage back.

Matt Jones was the 31st pick in the 3rd, wasn't all that productive or efficient in college and just an average athlete and then couldn't hold on to the football in the NFL. You think Gruden is the reason Matt Jones fumbled 8 times in this first 2 seasons?

Chris Thompson is an undersized 5th round pick who was an often injured satellite back in college and that is pretty much what he has been in the NFL. I can't imagine how anyone thinks last season wasn't getting the best out of Chris Thompson- 800 yards and 6 TDs in 10 games. That is a 16 game pace of 1300 yards and 10 TDs or one of the better seasons in recent memory for a satellite back. 

Derrius Guice is a 2nd round pick that racked up 2800 yards and 29 TDs with a career ypc of 6.5. He has prototpyical NFL RB size and runs a sub 4.5. 

 
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How many touches per game is Guice being projected to get, and how many does he need to be successful? He's definitely a bruiser, and probably requires more touches than a player like Kamara, but does he need 16+ to put up consistent performances?

 
steelers1080 said:
How many touches per game is Guice being projected to get, and how many does he need to be successful? He's definitely a bruiser, and probably requires more touches than a player like Kamara, but does he need 16+ to put up consistent performances?
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A floor of 240 total (targets + rushes) is what I would estimate

Ceiling of 300 total

I wouldn't be surprised with 235 rushes and about 30 targets for 25 receptions, unless he actually does unseat Thompson as the pass catching back, or Thompson gets hurt. Then that number climbs easily. 

 
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Have to agree with ilov80’s post. I mean, somehow the Redskins made sacks of trash coming out of the backfield look like serviceable backs in the NFL. To have someone of Guice’s talent back there I think the sky is the limit for this kid. QB change puts a small spin on things but it’s more of a lateral move than an upgrade or downgrade. And being in the NFC East where there should be a lot of games focused on the running game portends to some drawn out games with lots of touches. They’ve shown that even with Thompson getting a lot of targets the primary RB can still put up numbers  

Would love to grab him in the 4th. I don’t want to go RB/RB 4/5 and I really like Freeman but I like Guice in the 4th more than I like Freeman in the 5th. I think those two rounds are the hardest of the draft - a lot of unknowns but exciting unknowns. 

 
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The Skins have not had a stud RB since Clinton Portis, who changed his body and running style to survive the rigors of carrying the load for Joe Gibbs, and was never really his Denver self again.

Since then, they've tried rolling out the corpses of Fast Willie Parker, Shaun Alexander, Ryan Grant and Larry Johnson, low or no pedigree guys like Alfred Morris, Roy Helu, Evan Royster, Chris Thompson, Matt Jones, Darrel Young, Silas Redd, Lache Seastrunk, Keiland Williams, Ryan Torain, Tim Hightower, Keith Marshall, Mack Brown, Kapri Bibbs, Byron Marshall, Samaje Perine, etc. Sometimes these guys have flamed out, sometimes they've done more than they should due to scheme, and sometimes they were just below replacement-level bodies used by necessity. 

He is going to be a revelation for Skins fans. I have no idea what that will mean for fantasy purposes, but this team hasn't had an actual good RB in a long, long time. 

 
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One of the beat reporters I follow had a quote from Chris Thomson saying he expects Guice to run for 1,200 yards and he thinks Guice is setting his own goal even higher. Great to see Thompson supportive like that. It would be great as a Skins fan for them to have a similar relationship to Kamara and Ingraham were they are always pushing and encouraging each other. 

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
The Skins have not had a stud RB since Clinton Portis, who changed his body and running style to survive the rigors of carrying the load for Joe Gibbs, and was never really his Denver self again.

Since then, they've tried rolling out the corpses of Fast Willie Parker, Ryan Grant and Larry Johnson, low or no pedigree guys like Alfred Morris, Roy Helu, Evan Royster, Chris Thompson, Matt Jones, Darrel Young, Silas Redd, Lache Seastrunk, Keiland Williams, Ryan Torain, Tim Hightower, Keith Marshall, Mack Brown, Kapri Bibbs, Byron Marshall, Samaje Perine, etc. Sometimes these guys have flamed out, sometimes they've done more than they should due to scheme, and sometimes they were just below replacement-level bodies used by necessity. 

He is going to be a revelation for Skins fans. I have no idea what that will mean for fantasy purposes, but this team hasn't had an actual good RB in a long, long time. 
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You forgot Shuan Alexander. Lucky you. 

 
Sebowski said:
One of the beat reporters I follow had a quote from Chris Thomson saying he expects Guice to run for 1,200 yards and he thinks Guice is setting his own goal even higher. Great to see Thompson supportive like that. It would be great as a Skins fan for them to have a similar relationship to Kamara and Ingraham were they are always pushing and encouraging each other. 
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Yeah, that was nice to see. Chris Thompson is no dummy, he knows even if he stays 100% healthy that they can coexist, I doubt he has any delusions of himself being a 300 carry between the tackles RB in that way. He is one of the best mentors Guice could have honestly, the injuries CT has consistently come back from to get the respect he has now as a receiving threat, its impressive the work he's put in. Even a total nobody like Rob Kelley, who by all rights should not have even received an invite to an NFL training camp, is a great influence in the RB room. The amount of work he put in to start games with no pedigree and frankly no real NFL talent, he must be a workaholic. He is not very good but he's still a historically unlikely UDFA success story, who had to earn everything. Even on a roster with little RB talent that was remarkable. 

 
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Practice Notes: 2018 #SkinsCamp, Day 2

Excerpt:

Watching more of Derrius Guice, the Redskins seem to like using him as a pass catcher in the flat, where he has more room to operate and make the first defender miss. Even as he finishes plays and sprints upfield, he’s very cognizant of never running out of bounds. As a defensive back approaches, he purposefully spins or cuts back inside to get more yardage, little habits that indicate his physical style and aggressiveness to reach for more.
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ESPN's John Keim reports the Redskins have praised second-round RB Derrius Guice for his work "in the meeting room."

It's notable for a player who tumbled to No. 59 over supposed maturity issues. Guice has also drawn praise for his work in pass protection — one of the most difficult facets of the NFL game for rookie backs to pick up — but the team wants to make sure he doesn't "overcommit and lose leverage on his man." It's been so far, so good for Guice in his pursuit of the Redskins' early-down job.

Source: John Keim on Twitter 

Jul 31 - 2:25 PM
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Three thoughts:

  1. He says Bro too much.
  2. He seems like a great guy, not sure where the draft rumors came from, but glad they helped him fall to the Skins.
  3. He's going to have an excellent year if Gruden doesn't overthink it.
 
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