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RB Derrius Guice, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

Excerpt from the article:

I think when you’ll watch his college tape the year he played with [Leonard] Fournette, he was a dynamic player. We thought he might be the first player picked in the draft. Then the last year he played, he was playing through some injuries and he didn’t look quite the same. I think that’s probably why he fell more so than his character.
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I took it that they thought that he looked like a first overall pick just over a year ago based on the tape from the year where he played with Fournette, but after this past season with the lingering injury that his draft stock cooled off from that initial evaluation.

 
ponchsox said:
I’m targeting this guy in the third round of all my drafts. He’s a potential league winner.
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I was thinking WR/RB and then Fitz in the 3rd but am coming around to going WR/WR/Guice if the right WR’s are there when I pick. Have Kamara/Henry/Burkhead as keepers so I think that is a good stable to start with. 

I think he may turn into a true workhorse. The only thing that worries me is the reception cap because of Thompson. 

 
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Elevencents said:
I was thinking WR/RB and then Fitz in the 3rd but am coming around to going WR/WR/Guice if the right WR’s are there when I pick. Have Kamara/Henry/Burkhead as keepers so I think that is a good stable to start with. 

I think he may turn into a true workhorse. The only thing that worries me is the reception cap because of Thompson. 
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Here is some hope:

Hope

 
Elevencents said:
I was thinking WR/RB and then Fitz in the 3rd but am coming around to going WR/WR/Guice if the right WR’s are there when I pick. Have Kamara/Henry/Burkhead as keepers so I think that is a good stable to start with. 

I think he may turn into a true workhorse. The only thing that worries me is the reception cap because of Thompson. 
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I believe Thompson told a reporter that he’s not healthy and doesn’t expect to be 100% for a few months still. Given Thompson’s injury history, that is a great sign for Guice.

 
OK .. late to the party, but I keep seeing information on this guy and his ADP is fairly high.

As someone whom plays PPR exclusively ... is this guy undraftable this year? His ADP in PPR leagues exatly the same as non-PPR leagues... and that makes no sense to me whatsoever. he caught basically no catches in college and Chris Thompson will probably operate more as the 3rd down back.  How is an unproven, possible committee back who will never catch any balls being drafted in the mid 3rd round? 

???????????

 
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Phenomena said:
OK .. late to the party, but I keep seeing information on this guy and his ADP is fairly high.

As someone whom plays PPR exclusively ... is this guy undraftable this year? His ADP in PPR leagues exatly the same as non-PPR leagues... and that makes no sense to me whatsoever. he caught basically no catches in college and Chris Thompson will probably operate more as the 3rd down back.  How is an unproven, possible committee back who will never catch any balls being drafted in the mid 3rd round? 

???????????
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As mentioned before, Thompson is out for a while. I wouldn’t draft Guice as my RB1 but he has the potential to be a bell cow out of the gate. He may not catch many passes but yards and TDs still matter in PPR.

 
Phenomena said:
OK .. late to the party, but I keep seeing information on this guy and his ADP is fairly high.

As someone whom plays PPR exclusively ... is this guy undraftable this year? His ADP in PPR leagues exatly the same as non-PPR leagues... and that makes no sense to me whatsoever. he caught basically no catches in college and Chris Thompson will probably operate more as the 3rd down back.  How is an unproven, possible committee back who will never catch any balls being drafted in the mid 3rd round? 

???????????
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A lot of college systems don't throw the ball to their RBs. Fournette did not catch a lot of balls at LSU either but he had 36 as a rookie despite TJ Yeldon being the third down back there. If Guice gets 32-35 receptions he'll be fine in ppr leagues.

 
ponchsox said:
As mentioned before, Thompson is out for a while. I wouldn’t draft Guice as my RB1 but he has the potential to be a bell cow out of the gate. He may not catch many passes but yards and TDs still matter in PPR.
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Thompson isn't out for a while.  He just isn't 100%.

 
Phenomena said:
OK .. late to the party, but I keep seeing information on this guy and his ADP is fairly high.

As someone whom plays PPR exclusively ... is this guy undraftable this year? His ADP in PPR leagues exatly the same as non-PPR leagues... and that makes no sense to me whatsoever. he caught basically no catches in college and Chris Thompson will probably operate more as the 3rd down back.  How is an unproven, possible committee back who will never catch any balls being drafted in the mid 3rd round? 

???????????
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I think he is very draftable. He can catch. He isn't David Johnson, but I think he can do what a Leonard Fournette or Lamar Miller can do: 30 catches, 300 yards, and a TD at a minimum. 2 years ago, Kelley and Matt Jones combined for 1100 and 9 on the ground. When I kind of factor that in with a the bump in receiving, it puts Guice around RB14 or so for PPR PPG. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I think he is very draftable. He can catch. He isn't David Johnson, but I think he can do what a Leonard Fournette or Lamar Miller can do: 30 catches, 300 yards, and a TD at a minimum. 2 years ago, Kelley and Matt Jones combined for 1100 and 9 on the ground. When I kind of factor that in with a the bump in receiving, it puts Guice around RB14 or so for PPR PPG. 
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Isn't that all best-case scenario, though?  That's his ceiling.  You're drafting him at his ceiling.

He's going off at RB16. Assuming 1) he makes the jump to the NFL, 2) He actually ends up more in a bellcow role, 3) He manages to get more receptions in his rookie year than he received in all of college (30+), 4) Chris Thompson stays unhealthy and/or doesn't steal third-down looks.

Basically all of that happens and he ends up RB14.  I never understand people who project this hard and take people at their value.  

You mention Lamar Miller, whom Guice would catch on this best-case scenario.  Why not wait a full 15 spots and draft Lamar Miller in the late 4th? He's proven already and is on a better offense. I still don't get it.

 
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Phenomena said:
Isn't that all best-case scenario, though?  That's his ceiling.  You're drafting him at his ceiling.

He's going off at RB16. Assuming 1) he makes the jump to the NFL, 2) He actually ends up more in a bellcow role, 3) He manages to get more receptions in his rookie year than he received in all of college (30+), 4) Chris Thompson stays unhealthy and/or doesn't steal third-down looks.

Basically all of that happens and he ends up RB14.  I never understand people who project this hard and take people at their value.  

You mention Lamar Miller, whom Guice would catch on this best-case scenario.  Why not wait a full 15 spots and draft Lamar Miller in the late 4th? He's proven already and is on a better offense. I still don't get it.
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Houston might have the worst o-line in the league while Washington has (what should be) a better than average o-line.

Also I don't agree that Guice's ceiling is what two pedestrian RBs accomplished. His ceiling is higher than 1,100 and 9 TDs. I already addressed the receiving "issue" above with Fournette at LSU - if that's not good enough for you go back and look what Ray Rice did as a receiver at Rutgers and then what his NFL career looked like. Many of these college programs just don't throw to their RBs. It doesn't mean they can't catch.

 
Phenomena said:
Isn't that all best-case scenario, though?  That's his ceiling.  You're drafting him at his ceiling.

He's going off at RB16. Assuming 1) he makes the jump to the NFL, 2) He actually ends up more in a bellcow role, 3) He manages to get more receptions in his rookie year than he received in all of college (30+), 4) Chris Thompson stays unhealthy and/or doesn't steal third-down looks.

Basically all of that happens and he ends up RB14.  I never understand people who project this hard and take people at their value.  

You mention Lamar Miller, whom Guice would catch on this best-case scenario.  Why not wait a full 15 spots and draft Lamar Miller in the late 4th? He's proven already and is on a better offense. I still don't get it.
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That is definitely NOT his ceiling.  Asking whether he's draftable is a flat-out joke.

I'm a diehard Skins fan and rarely endorse investing in our guys, but Guice is going to be a in the top 15 startup picks next year.  Yes, calling that one now.

I think most everyone recognizes he's the 2nd best rusher in the class and he's surprised everyone by flashing strong receiving ability in camp.  Thompson sounds like an athlete that simply doesn't trust his body, which makes me wonder if he'll be useful at all this year.  He called this the toughest comeback of his career, which are strong words coming from a guy who has previously suffered an ACL tear, two torn labrums, and borken vertebrae.  

Our passing offense is going to be a work in progress for the early part of the season.  Guice is going to to be the lifeboat while they sort out the new additions of Smith and Richardson and Reed and Thompson try to find their legs again.  It's going to be the Guice and Crowder show and with the o-line fully healthy, the run game will flourish.

He's a STRONG buy at current prices.  

 
Phenomena said:
Isn't that all best-case scenario, though?  That's his ceiling.  You're drafting him at his ceiling.

He's going off at RB16. Assuming 1) he makes the jump to the NFL, 2) He actually ends up more in a bellcow role, 3) He manages to get more receptions in his rookie year than he received in all of college (30+), 4) Christ Thompson stays unhealthy and/or doesn't steal third-down looks.

Basically all of that happens and he ends up RB14.  I never understand people who project this hard and take people at their value.  

You mention Lamar Miller, whom Guice would catch on this best-case scenario.  Why not wait a full 15 spots and draft Lamaer Miller in the late 4th? He's proven already and is on a better offense. I still don't get it.
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1. I like his path and talent more than the guys going after him: Henry, Collins, Ajayi, Drake, Miller. Miller fantasy ppg has been declining the last 2 years and the Texans were trying to replace him last year. Miller has a very limited upside since we have seen he's just not very good. 

2. I believe Guice is extremely good and represents a massive upgrade of talent over Jones/Kelley/Perine. Those were 3 below average NFL RBs. Guice has the talent to be a top 10 NFL RB so when look at 1100 rushing, I think that is a lot closer to his median than his best case. In 2017, Washington's offensive line was plagued by injuries. In 2016, Washington RBs were 12th in standard fantasy points and 15th in PPR. So I do see a good size pie being there and I'm going to bet that the super talented young protoypical RB can get a big share of that over the currently injured satellite back. 

 
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Having watched every one of his college games, i never got the impression his hands were an issue. His QBs at LSU and offense, in general, were the issues.

 
Phenomena said:
OK .. late to the party, but I keep seeing information on this guy and his ADP is fairly high.

As someone whom plays PPR exclusively ... is this guy undraftable this year? His ADP in PPR leagues exatly the same as non-PPR leagues... and that makes no sense to me whatsoever. he caught basically no catches in college and Chris Thompson will probably operate more as the 3rd down back.  How is an unproven, possible committee back who will never catch any balls being drafted in the mid 3rd round? 
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Wow, this makes me nostalgic for the Alfred Morris years

 
Redskins’ Alex Smith on Derrius Guice: ‘I don’t feel like there’s a real weakness in his game’

Excerpt:

Third-down running back Chris Thompson will provide an obvious pass-catching option out of the backfield for Smith in Washington, but the veteran QB has also raved about the dual-threat ability of Redskins rookie running back Derrius Guice.

“I didn’t know anything about him when we drafted him,” Smith told SiriusXM NFL Radio’s Jim Miller and Pat Kirwan of Guice on Monday during the hosts’s training camp tour visit to Richmond. “You hear all this nonsense, I guess, that’s out there. The kid has a smile on his face 24/7. He loves playing ball, he loves being out there. Then to be honest, I don’t feel like there’s a real weakness in his game. Pass game, protection, certainly he can run the ball. I feel like he does a heck of a job in protections, I feel like in the pass game he’s a weapon as well. So, I’m excited for him. Certainly as a running back, I think those guys really get to shine when we get the pads on and it goes live, and they can show breaking tackles and open-field stuff. … I think he’s got a lot ahead of him.”

Guice, who slipped to the second round in the draft due to rumors about his maturity, has shown flashes of his versatility during camp. On Sunday, he made a catch along the sideline before turning up field and leaving his defenders in the dust.

“I’ve got some hands,” said Guice, who has been touting his receiving ability since the NFL Combine. “Catching has always been natural. Even though we didn’t do it much at LSU, and I kind of had to defend myself a lot, telling everybody that I could catch. It’s just one of those things you gotta go through. Now that I’m here, I can show everybody that I can do both.”

Guice made only 32 catches in three seasons at LSU, including 18 as a junior last year. Thompson, who has been limited in practice while he continues to work his way back from a knee injury that cost him the final six games of last season, led all Redskins running backs with 39 catches on 54 targets in 2017.
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Phenomena said:
Isn't that all best-case scenario, though?  That's his ceiling.  You're drafting him at his ceiling.

He's going off at RB16. Assuming 1) he makes the jump to the NFL, 2) He actually ends up more in a bellcow role, 3) He manages to get more receptions in his rookie year than he received in all of college (30+), 4) Chris Thompson stays unhealthy and/or doesn't steal third-down looks.

Basically all of that happens and he ends up RB14.  I never understand people who project this hard and take people at their value.  

You mention Lamar Miller, whom Guice would catch on this best-case scenario.  Why not wait a full 15 spots and draft Lamar Miller in the late 4th? He's proven already and is on a better offense. I still don't get it.
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Guice has top 12 RB ability for fantasy thats why.

 
Currently running 4th on the depth chart. Probably just a ploy to light a fire under him. He shouldn't need that motivation imo. 

 
Milkman said:
Currently running 4th on the depth chart. Probably just a ploy to light a fire under him. He shouldn't need that motivation imo. 
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Lol yeah, the Skins are the first to use this method with rookies and it speaks to his level of motivation.  Mmkay.

Fade at your own demise.

 
Milkman said:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/riggosrag.com/2018/08/06/redskins-first-unofficial-2018-depth-chart-contains-surprises/amp/
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The depth chart, which is located on the team’s website, mostly held to form with what many expected, but there were also a few big surprises on there as well.

Most notably, the running back position seems completely out of order on the depth chart. The top of the chart has Rob Kelley listed at the top and Derrius Guice as… the fourth string. 

Now, click the link to Washington's website and see what you get.

 
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The dozen "experts" in fantasy right now don't agree with anyone in this thread about Guice.  None of them drafted him before 4.06.

This mid-3rd love, even in PPR, is ridiculous. You guys are smoking something.

 
meyerj31 said:
The dozen "experts" in fantasy right now don't agree with anyone in this thread about Guice.  None of them drafted him before 4.06.

This mid-3rd love, even in PPR, is ridiculous. You guys are smoking something.
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mid 3rd is too high for this format, but 3rd round value IS in his range of outcomes.

 
All the drafts I've done so far (bear in mind a few are super flex so sometimes he falls to round 4-5 but regardless, the tier he's in is the same) he's been usually the first back off the board after Howard and Mixon are taken. He's available with Collins, McCoy (once McCoy went high but other than that he's fallen), Drake and Ingram. Seems like that whole tier could be make-or-break. Do you guys see him as significantly a better pick relative to those listed? Seems like if the hype,is real, that's a game changing pick amongst all those players that obviously have concerns.

 
Kwai Chang Caine said:
All the drafts I've done so far (bear in mind a few are super flex so sometimes he falls to round 4-5 but regardless, the tier he's in is the same) he's been usually the first back off the board after Howard and Mixon are taken. He's available with Collins, McCoy (once McCoy went high but other than that he's fallen), Drake and Ingram. Seems like that whole tier could be make-or-break. Do you guys see him as significantly a better pick relative to those listed? Seems like if the hype,is real, that's a game changing pick amongst all those players that obviously have concerns.
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The only one I would consider over him would be Ingram because I think he gives you top 10 value if you have coverage for his suspension. But end of the day prob still going Guice. 

 
I think the depth chart is a classic case of not letting the rookie get too complacent. Unless Guice absolutely face plants in preseason, I don't see how Kelley or Perine are going to start. Maybe in name only by being on the field for the first snap from scrimmage in game one, 

 
So--how early would you guys reach for him ? I have the first pick in my 12 team 1/2 point PPR redraft. If I don't take him at pick # 25 (3.01) he will NOT be around when I pick again, 23 picks later, at 4.12. I get that the potential is there, but I have to believe that it is more than just a bit "bold" to take Guice over Jordan Howard or Joe Mixon. 

 
meyerj31 said:
The dozen "experts" in fantasy right now don't agree with anyone in this thread about Guice.  None of them drafted him before 4.06.

This mid-3rd love, even in PPR, is ridiculous. You guys are smoking something.
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Well sure but that's got nothing to do with me liking Guice. 

 
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