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RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, WAS (1 Viewer)

If there was a rookie draft today, where would he go?
Just RB’s alone I have him after Jeanty, Hampton, Judkins and probably Henderson. But that’s it.
The only rookies I would have above him are Egbuka and Warren .. I wouldn’t even want Jeanty bc the Commanders offense is so much better.

That is crazy talk. I am low on Bill for dynasty and I would consider him at the end of the first because of the instant production for a contender.
 
If there was a rookie draft today, where would he go?
Just RB’s alone I have him after Jeanty, Hampton, Judkins and probably Henderson. But that’s it.
The only rookies I would have above him are Egbuka and Warren .. I wouldn’t even want Jeanty bc the Commanders offense is so much better.

That is crazy talk. I am low on Bill for dynasty and I would consider him at the end of the first because of the instant production for a contender.
Just out of curiosity, what have you seen that makes you think he is not the long term answer? Is it his draft capital?
 
If there was a rookie draft today, where would he go?
Just RB’s alone I have him after Jeanty, Hampton, Judkins and probably Henderson. But that’s it.
The only rookies I would have above him are Egbuka and Warren .. I wouldn’t even want Jeanty bc the Commanders offense is so much better.
user name does not check out.

Imma have to refer to gurus 1-23 for better FF takes.
 
If there was a rookie draft today, where would he go?
Just RB’s alone I have him after Jeanty, Hampton, Judkins and probably Henderson. But that’s it.
The only rookies I would have above him are Egbuka and Warren .. I wouldn’t even want Jeanty bc the Commanders offense is so much better.

That is crazy talk. I am low on Bill for dynasty and I would consider him at the end of the first because of the instant production for a contender.
Just out of curiosity, what have you seen that makes you think he is not the long term answer? Is it his draft capital?

For sure his draft capital. He just replaced a late draft capital guy that was cheap and semi productive. James Robinson, Chester Taylor, Dameon Pierce etc. The Arian Foster's and Terrell Davis's are more rare.

Could I be wrong? Sure,.but playing dynasty and avoiding these late round rbs or cutting bait after a good year will put you ahead long term.
 
If there was a rookie draft today, where would he go?
Just RB’s alone I have him after Jeanty, Hampton, Judkins and probably Henderson. But that’s it.
The only rookies I would have above him are Egbuka and Warren .. I wouldn’t even want Jeanty bc the Commanders offense is so much better.

That is crazy talk. I am low on Bill for dynasty and I would consider him at the end of the first because of the instant production for a contender.
Just out of curiosity, what have you seen that makes you think he is not the long term answer? Is it his draft capital?

For sure his draft capital. He just replaced a late draft capital guy that was cheap and semi productive. James Robinson, Chester Taylor, Dameon Pierce etc. The Arian Foster's and Terrell Davis's are more rare.

Could I be wrong? Sure,.but playing dynasty and avoiding these late round rbs or cutting bait after a good year will put you ahead long term.
Many dynasty owners never learn this. The JCM types are replaceable level talent. Your best option is to turn him into future picks and give your roster more flexibility. Gainwell, Carter, and the Dowdle types are all available for a low price if you need similar production now.
 
If there was a rookie draft today, where would he go?
Just RB’s alone I have him after Jeanty, Hampton, Judkins and probably Henderson. But that’s it.
The only rookies I would have above him are Egbuka and Warren .. I wouldn’t even want Jeanty bc the Commanders offense is so much better.

That is crazy talk. I am low on Bill for dynasty and I would consider him at the end of the first because of the instant production for a contender.
Just out of curiosity, what have you seen that makes you think he is not the long term answer? Is it his draft capital?

For sure his draft capital. He just replaced a late draft capital guy that was cheap and semi productive. James Robinson, Chester Taylor, Dameon Pierce etc. The Arian Foster's and Terrell Davis's are more rare.

Could I be wrong? Sure,.but playing dynasty and avoiding these late round rbs or cutting bait after a good year will put you ahead long term.
you know the story of his last year and why he went so late right?
 
cutting bait after a good year will put you ahead long term.
At this point I think one would be “selling high” rather than cutting bait.

A couple of solid games continuing to see ~50% snap count and JCM’s gonna command a 1st fairly easily.

I have him in 1 of my dynasty leagues where my team is very good but struggled out the gate with injuries / schedule and I might entertain offers for him in a few weeks.

But I don’t consider that cutting bait.
 
If there was a rookie draft today, where would he go?
Just RB’s alone I have him after Jeanty, Hampton, Judkins and probably Henderson. But that’s it.
The only rookies I would have above him are Egbuka and Warren .. I wouldn’t even want Jeanty bc the Commanders offense is so much better.

That is crazy talk. I am low on Bill for dynasty and I would consider him at the end of the first because of the instant production for a contender.
Just out of curiosity, what have you seen that makes you think he is not the long term answer? Is it his draft capital?

For sure his draft capital. He just replaced a late draft capital guy that was cheap and semi productive. James Robinson, Chester Taylor, Dameon Pierce etc. The Arian Foster's and Terrell Davis's are more rare.

Could I be wrong? Sure,.but playing dynasty and avoiding these late round rbs or cutting bait after a good year will put you ahead long term.
Many dynasty owners never learn this. The JCM types are replaceable level talent. Your best option is to turn him into future picks and give your roster more flexibility. Gainwell, Carter, and the Dowdle types are all available for a low price if you need similar production now.
I think you're wrong here. Time will tell and usually selling a late round hit is the correct move... But not always. For example, selling Brady or Purdy or Priest Holmes because of their draft capital would have been a distasterous choice. I'm thinking, with how dang efficient he's been, Bill might be the exception here and not the rule.
 
Gainwell, Carter, and the Dowdle types are all available for a low price if you need similar production now.
JCM arguably has significantly more staying power than any of those backs though.

I get what you’re saying about using cheap RBs (I’m a long time advocate of it on these very forums) but that’s a somewhat short-sighted approach. One might argue that JCM is *exactly* the sort of RB that zero / hero RB builds dream of discovering.

Watching the highlights of the last game he more than passes the eye test for me. I wanted to see him do some of the stuff he did in the preseason and holy smokes did he deliver.
 
The JCM types are replaceable level talent.
I’d say Bill is above replacement level talent. His 1.50 10 yard split time at his pro day was exceptionally fast, and that lightning quick burst through the line and into the second level is ultimately more valuable than a fast 40 yard time. I mean how many 40 yard runs do you really see in the NFL anyway? And you see Bill’s exceptional burst through or around NFL lines already.

Couple Bill’s skill with Jayden Daniels, and you have a recipe similar to what the Ravens cooked with to get Derrick Henry so many yards last season — defenses have to honor either Jayden Daniels or Lamar Jackson tucking and running around the edge so that opens more running lanes through the line.

I’d hold Bill because I think the Jayden-Bill combo could give defenses troubles for years to come.
 
cutting bait after a good year will put you ahead long term.
At this point I think one would be “selling high” rather than cutting bait.

A couple of solid games continuing to see ~50% snap count and JCM’s gonna command a 1st fairly easily.

I have him in 1 of my dynasty leagues where my team is very good but struggled out the gate with injuries / schedule and I might entertain offers for him in a few weeks.

But I don’t consider that cutting bait.
His hype train was out of control before the season. It's not cutting bait, it's cashing in on a guy you drafted for nothing, and giving yourself flexibility later in the season if you're competing and need points or next year (dynasty).
 
If there was a rookie draft today, where would he go?
Just RB’s alone I have him after Jeanty, Hampton, Judkins and probably Henderson. But that’s it.
The only rookies I would have above him are Egbuka and Warren .. I wouldn’t even want Jeanty bc the Commanders offense is so much better.

That is crazy talk. I am low on Bill for dynasty and I would consider him at the end of the first because of the instant production for a contender.
Just out of curiosity, what have you seen that makes you think he is not the long term answer? Is it his draft capital?

For sure his draft capital. He just replaced a late draft capital guy that was cheap and semi productive. James Robinson, Chester Taylor, Dameon Pierce etc. The Arian Foster's and Terrell Davis's are more rare.

Could I be wrong? Sure,.but playing dynasty and avoiding these late round rbs or cutting bait after a good year will put you ahead long term.
Many dynasty owners never learn this. The JCM types are replaceable level talent. Your best option is to turn him into future picks and give your roster more flexibility. Gainwell, Carter, and the Dowdle types are all available for a low price if you need similar production now.
I think you're wrong here. Time will tell and usually selling a late round hit is the correct move... But not always. For example, selling Brady or Purdy or Priest Holmes because of their draft capital would have been a distasterous choice. I'm thinking, with how dang efficient he's been, Bill might be the exception here and not the rule.
Nothing is certain. He could be the next Arian Foster! The odds are against him being a long-term number one option.
 
Gainwell, Carter, and the Dowdle types are all available for a low price if you need similar production now.
JCM arguably has significantly more staying power than any of those backs though.

I get what you’re saying about using cheap RBs (I’m a long time advocate of it on these very forums) but that’s a somewhat short-sighted approach. One might argue that JCM is *exactly* the sort of RB that zero / hero RB builds dream of discovering.

Watching the highlights of the last game he more than passes the eye test for me. I wanted to see him do some of the stuff he did in the preseason and holy smokes did he deliver.
Does he? It's dangerous to predict RB production outside of 1-2 year windows for all RBs outside the elite options. My point in comparing those guys to JCM is that their output isn't all that different when given opportunities, and all of those guys could've been had for free. Sell JCM if you can get a fair value for future picks that'll stay liquid, and add RB lottery tickets that are free, or consider buying cheaper production elsewhere.
 
If there was a rookie draft today, where would he go?
Just RB’s alone I have him after Jeanty, Hampton, Judkins and probably Henderson. But that’s it.
The only rookies I would have above him are Egbuka and Warren .. I wouldn’t even want Jeanty bc the Commanders offense is so much better.

That is crazy talk. I am low on Bill for dynasty and I would consider him at the end of the first because of the instant production for a contender.
Just out of curiosity, what have you seen that makes you think he is not the long term answer? Is it his draft capital?

For sure his draft capital. He just replaced a late draft capital guy that was cheap and semi productive. James Robinson, Chester Taylor, Dameon Pierce etc. The Arian Foster's and Terrell Davis's are more rare.

Could I be wrong? Sure,.but playing dynasty and avoiding these late round rbs or cutting bait after a good year will put you ahead long term.
you know the story of his last year and why he went so late right?
I don't.

:popcorn:
 
cutting bait after a good year will put you ahead long term.
At this point I think one would be “selling high” rather than cutting bait.

A couple of solid games continuing to see ~50% snap count and JCM’s gonna command a 1st fairly easily.

I have him in 1 of my dynasty leagues where my team is very good but struggled out the gate with injuries / schedule and I might entertain offers for him in a few weeks.

But I don’t consider that cutting bait.
His hype train was out of control before the season. It's not cutting bait, it's cashing in on a guy you drafted for nothing, and giving yourself flexibility later in the season if you're competing and need points or next year (dynasty).
Right. Which is “selling high”. Like I was saying. :oldunsure:

We seem to agree.
 
If there was a rookie draft today, where would he go?
Just RB’s alone I have him after Jeanty, Hampton, Judkins and probably Henderson. But that’s it.
The only rookies I would have above him are Egbuka and Warren .. I wouldn’t even want Jeanty bc the Commanders offense is so much better.
user name does not check out.

Imma have to refer to gurus 1-23 for better FF takes.
what about Guru 25-33? do their opinions have no value?
 
If there was a rookie draft today, where would he go?
Just RB’s alone I have him after Jeanty, Hampton, Judkins and probably Henderson. But that’s it.
The only rookies I would have above him are Egbuka and Warren .. I wouldn’t even want Jeanty bc the Commanders offense is so much better.

That is crazy talk. I am low on Bill for dynasty and I would consider him at the end of the first because of the instant production for a contender.
Just out of curiosity, what have you seen that makes you think he is not the long term answer? Is it his draft capital?

For sure his draft capital. He just replaced a late draft capital guy that was cheap and semi productive. James Robinson, Chester Taylor, Dameon Pierce etc. The Arian Foster's and Terrell Davis's are more rare.

Could I be wrong? Sure,.but playing dynasty and avoiding these late round rbs or cutting bait after a good year will put you ahead long term.
you know the story of his last year and why he went so late right?

You mean like Sean Tucker?
 
So, you want us to trade away the guy that is top three in almost all PFF categories because he was a 7th rounder? I’ll take my chances.
I agree, of course it all depends on what you can get. I think people are still leery, so the return is still fairly low in my parts. I will take the current production upside and see if that value rises before jumping ship. Right now his cost was basically nothing, so happy to see what happens with the risk that it doesn’t work out. Right now it is hard visually to see any concerns and his rushing grades are off the charts. If he keeps it up I am not sure why WAS would have any reason to allocate high resources to the position they are getting production from at a cheap rate when they can invest in other more important areas.
 
So, you want us to trade away the guy that is top three in almost all PFF categories because he was a 7th rounder? I’ll take my chances.
I agree, of course it all depends on what you can get. I think people are still leery, so the return is still fairly low in my parts. I will take the current production upside and see if that value rises before jumping ship. Right now his cost was basically nothing, so happy to see what happens with the risk that it doesn’t work out. Right now it is hard visually to see any concerns and his rushing grades are off the charts. If he keeps it up I am not sure why WAS would have any reason to allocate high resources to the position they are getting production from at a cheap rate when they can invest in other more important areas.
100% agree.
 
If he keeps it up I am not sure why WAS would have any reason to allocate high resources to the position they are getting production from at a cheap rate when they can invest in other more important areas.
This is a big reason why talented RBs like JCM often get drafted late in the first place - RB in general is not a premium position in the NFL because it's often plug and play if a guy can fit the system. We'll see if teams learn from this year's supposedly historic RB class where 5 RBs were drafted in the top 60 picks.
 
Saying you took profit by trading Bill for a 1st is a lot like counting your chickens before they hatch. I don't like any strategy that suggests I need to automatically do something based on draft status, especially in Bill's case. It's plainly evident he's got a lot more talent than your typical 7th-rounder.

Sure, Bill could get hampered by injury that has nothing to with ability and you come out with a win, but acquiring a random (mid) 1st in '26 for moving Bill isn't something I'd be confident about making a profit. It's not like '26 has a reputation for a stellar class right now. That would work for 99% of 7th-rounders, but each player's ability and situation should be projected on their own merit.

Ok, so you got a 1st, but you could also end up with a rather short stick. I guess it would be the safe move...not necessarily the best move. Not sure where Bill would go now if '25 was redrafted, but it wouldn't be late.
 
Redrafting the rookie draft right now. This isn't in order, but they guys I would take over Bill standard ppr 1 qb.

Egbuka
Tet McMillan
Jeanty
Hampton
Harvey
Henderson
Judkins
Warren
Tuten
Burden
Golden
 
Redrafting the rookie draft right now. This isn't in order, but they guys I would take over Bill standard ppr 1 qb.

Egbuka
Tet McMillan
Jeanty
Hampton
Harvey
Henderson
Judkins
Warren
Tuten
Burden
Golden
Why take Burden over Bill when Odunze looks to be the apple to Caleb Williams eye?

And why take Golden over Bill when Jordan Love spreads the ball around so much?

In both cases, you’re looking at two receivers whose situations dictate they may not become a true fantasy WR1, whereas Bill has a clearer path to be a true fantasy RB1.
 
Interesting Comp...

Bucky Irving 2024 (first 5 games): 44/247/1 8/46/0 - 110 snaps
JCM 2024 (first 5 games): 43/283/4 5/54/0 - 109 snaps.
And Bucky had/has far more competition. Bill has a pretty clear path to top 10 numbers going forward.
Coaching staffs do think differently so how DQ/KK manage this versus TB/LC...we'll see. And to be fair, from Week 6 on Bucky averaged 36 snaps/game (not counting Week 14 when he left the game early)...so he was the clear RB1 here pretty much from this point in the season forward.
 
Interesting Comp...

Bucky Irving 2024 (first 5 games): 44/247/1 8/46/0 - 110 snaps
JCM 2024 (first 5 games): 43/283/4 5/54/0 - 109 snaps.
beyond the snap counts, the eyeball test in both cases indicated that Bucky/Bill are much more effective than the other RBs in the backfield. I understand there are other factors at play besides just running the ball but the stars seem to be aligning...
 
Redrafting the rookie draft right now. This isn't in order, but they guys I would take over Bill standard ppr 1 qb.

Egbuka
Tet McMillan
Jeanty
Hampton
Harvey
Henderson
Judkins
Warren
Tuten
Burden
Golden
Why take Burden over Bill when Odunze looks to be the apple to Caleb Williams eye?

And why take Golden over Bill when Jordan Love spreads the ball around so much?

In both cases, you’re looking at two receivers whose situations dictate they may not become a true fantasy WR1, whereas Bill has a clearer path to be a true fantasy RB1.

Because of draft capital, because wide receivers last longer than rbs, because it is easier to support two wide receivers for fantasy than two backs (which Washington tends to share) because it was one game because I don't believe Bills ceiling is a top 12 dynasty rb.
 
A new interview with Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury strongly suggests that the slow start to Bill’s season was mostly due to his pass protection and not his running skill. Based on Kingsbury’s comment below it’s fair to assume that Bill will continue to get a larger share of the Commanders snaps as his pass protection progresses.

“Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said that rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merrittstill has a "ways to go" with his play when the football isn't in his hands, according to John Keim of ESPN. "Pass protection, pass game, any sort of lead blocks. He has to keep working to become a complete back but since day one when he touches the ball he does good things with it," Kingsbury added.”

LINK: https://www.rotoballer.com/player-n...ill-has-a-ways-to-go-without-the-ball/1720626
 
I find it very odd that people think draft capital is somehow relevant at this point. If teams could do the NFL draft all over today, he would go in the first round.

To the moon we go!
I don't know about the first round but he would definitely go in the first few rounds. He flashes on the screen and has shown a lot of good things on the field.
 
I find it very odd that people think draft capital is somehow relevant at this point. If teams could do the NFL draft all over today, he would go in the first round.

To the moon we go!

Because guys like Jordan Howard and James Robinson started strong and the teams just replace them like they did nothing. Guys like Devin Singletary and Swift kept getting chances. The draft capital means something.
 
I find it very odd that people think draft capital is somehow relevant at this point. If teams could do the NFL draft all over today, he would go in the first round.

To the moon we go!

Because guys like Jordan Howard and James Robinson started strong and the teams just replace them like they did nothing. Guys like Devin Singletary and Swift kept getting chances. The draft capital means something.
every situation is unique...especially JCMs. The kid missed his entire senior year due to an eligibility issue which apparently arose from his freshman year when he was red shirted and someone wore his number in a couple games. I'm sure if he could've played his senior year he would've fared better in the draft. If it was an injury or conduct that kept him off the field but a paperwork issue. Now he's in the NFL carving up defenses and making it look easy when he gets the ball in his hands. If people don't rethink things and hold a 7th round draft tag over his head, they're morons. Just open your eyes and watch.
 
I find it very odd that people think draft capital is somehow relevant at this point. If teams could do the NFL draft all over today, he would go in the first round.

To the moon we go!

Because guys like Jordan Howard and James Robinson started strong and the teams just replace them like they did nothing. Guys like Devin Singletary and Swift kept getting chances. The draft capital means something.
every situation is unique...especially JCMs. The kid missed his entire senior year due to an eligibility issue which apparently arose from his freshman year when he was red shirted and someone wore his number in a couple games. I'm sure if he could've played his senior year he would've fared better in the draft. If it was an injury or conduct that kept him off the field but a paperwork issue. Now he's in the NFL carving up defenses and making it look easy when he gets the ball in his hands. If people don't rethink things and hold a 7th round draft tag over his head, they're morons. Just open your eyes and watch.
I already said he maybe the exception, but I treat all these late round rbs the same in dynasty. It is like playing blackjack and never hitting on 16. You will win sometimes, but over the long haul you will lose more than you win. For every Arian Foster there are five Chester Taylors. It isn't my rule the NFL does it.
 
but I treat all these late round rbs the same in dynasty.
But once they have tape they are now not all the same. The guys you mentioned (like James Robinson) did not have the skills that JCM is showing. They were volume driven and didn't have the burst, vision or acceleration that JCM has. That is the difference.

Draft capital is but one small aspect of a player. When you have nothing else to go on or if they are pedestrian and live on volume that is another piece the puzzle. When they pop off the screen with their skills that is more to the puzzle. You have to weight everything. It's not a one size fits all evaluation that stops at draft capital as you are alluding to in the statement I quoted.
 
It is like playing blackjack and never hitting on 16. You will win sometimes, but over the long haul you will lose more than you win.
This is another short sighted statement. Not all 16's are created equal. Is the dealer showing a 4 or a 10? That also gets factored into the equation. Equating always/never hitting on 16 with no other info is the same as treating "all these late round QB's the same". If you don't factor in other factors (like what the dealer has) into your process then you are shorting yourself.
 
Current Bill Stats:
  • 43 carries
  • 283 rushing yards
  • 6.6 yards per carry
  • 54 receiving yards
  • 10.8 yards per reception
  • 4 touchdowns
Against the Chargers, five of Bill’s 14 total runs were ‘explosives’ of 10 yards or more, with the longest being a 27-yard scamper.

Link: https://www.hogshaven.com/general/3...een-named-the-pepsi-zero-nfl-rookie-of-week-5


Advanced Bill Metrics:

Jacory Croskey-Merritt through 5 weeks among RBs with 30+ rushes...

65.1% success rate (1st)
58.1% of runs gain 5+ yards (1st)
20.9% gain 10+ yards (2nd)
39.5% result in 1D/TD (1st)
4.4 yards after contact per rush (2nd)
51.2% of runs have been vs 8+ in the box (6th)

Link: https://x.com/lordreebs/status/1975234893534925075?s=46
 
I find it very odd that people think draft capital is somehow relevant at this point. If teams could do the NFL draft all over today, he would go in the first round.

To the moon we go!

Because guys like Jordan Howard and James Robinson started strong and the teams just replace them like they did nothing. Guys like Devin Singletary and Swift kept getting chances. The draft capital means something.
every situation is unique...especially JCMs. The kid missed his entire senior year due to an eligibility issue which apparently arose from his freshman year when he was red shirted and someone wore his number in a couple games. I'm sure if he could've played his senior year he would've fared better in the draft. If it was an injury or conduct that kept him off the field but a paperwork issue. Now he's in the NFL carving up defenses and making it look easy when he gets the ball in his hands. If people don't rethink things and hold a 7th round draft tag over his head, they're morons. Just open your eyes and watch.
I already said he maybe the exception, but I treat all these late round rbs the same in dynasty. It is like playing blackjack and never hitting on 16. You will win sometimes, but over the long haul you will lose more than you win. For every Arian Foster there are five Chester Taylors. It isn't my rule the NFL does it.
FTR Chester Lamar Taylor - Starting running back on FBG_Chaka's 2006 Championship Team!
 
I already said he maybe the exception, but I treat all these late round rbs the same in dynasty. It is like playing blackjack and never hitting on 16. You will win sometimes, but over the long haul you will lose more than you win. For every Arian Foster there are five Chester Taylors. It isn't my rule the NFL does it.
I understand this approach but, I think it is a little too clinical. I guess if you are one of those people who view fantasy football as a side hustle (I think we have a couple people here who earn a living from it) then, by all means continue that approach.

But for the vast majority of us it's a fun hobby and the sheer pleasure of unearthing a Jamal Anderson, Arian Foster or Priest Holmes (Edleman, Colston etc) has a different kind of and, in some ways far greater value than just on field performance.

I'm holding JCM because it makes me happy that he might emerge, even for one season as a league winner.
 

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