Show me these examples of anyone predicting 1500 combined yards for Gibbs in the 2023 season.
That is a very unrealistic expectation. Very few RB have achieved that level of production in their rookie seasons. As I have been saying all along for RB who are actually good for fantasy football the rookie season is the least productive of their first 6 seasons in the league on average and to temper expectations of any RB in their rookie season because of this.
RB who have had over 1500 combined yards as a rookie:
2022 None
2021 Najee Harris
2020 None (Johnathan Taylor was close but not quite)
2019 None
2018 Sanquon Barkley
2017 Kareem Hunt Alvin Kamara
2016 Ezekiel Elliiot
2015 None
2014 None
2013 None
2012 Alfred Morris Doug Martin
2011 None
2010 None
2009 None
2008 Matt Forte Steve Slayton (Chris Johnson was close)
2007 Adrian Peterson
2006 None
2005 None
2004 None
2003 None
So that's 20 years and we only have 10 RB over this time frame who have achieved 1500 total yards in their rookie season. That is very rare and completely unrealistic to expect any rookie RB to do this.
The ones who have done this almost all of them have had 350 or more combined touches in their rookie seasons. Who in their right mind would have expected Gibbs to have 350 touches with David Montgomery ahead of him on the depth chart?
Another interesting thing to note from these 10 RB who did have 1500 yards in their rookie seasons, a lot of them did not go on to have as productive seasons following that. Hunt and Slayton never got close to that again. Doug Martin had a 2nd 1500 yard season in his 4th year in the league after two disappointing years following his rookie season. Alfred Morris still had some good years following his rookie season but never had 1500 combined yards again. Barkley was close in his 2nd season but he missed 3 games, then did it again in the 2022 season. Even Elliot has only done that 3 times in his career.
Its such a high bench mark one should not really be expecting that for a RB and RB who do achieve this tend to do it in season 2 through 6 of their careers, not in their rookie season.
The absolute best case scenarios thrown out there talking about a career outlook for Gibbs not his rookie season were
Reggie Bush or
Christian McCaffrey
Bush only had 1500 yards once in his career and that was in his 8th season in the league after going to Detroit. Obviously Kamara and McCaffrey have been mega stars when it comes to combined yardage and very very rare players.
The only comparison of Gibbs to McCaffrey was to show that McCaffrey did not perform nearly as well in his rookie season as he has since then. As an example to have lower expectations for Gibbs as a rookie, not that he is going to become McCaffrey.
..so yes people are looking for instant gratification. Rookie rbs come in all the time and understand the offense and pick up blitzes and have huge success.
No actually they don't. This is a misconception on your part.
RBs that are picked way behind the first round have success.
Yes they do. However this standard of success is much lower than your stated expectation for Gibbs.
So this stuff that he's too dumb to understand the nfl game and he doesn't see what's happening on the field is and should be concerning.
No one has said he is dumb. What I the Head Coach of the Lions, Austin Eckler and others have said is that every RB has a learning curve coming into the NFL and that it takes time for them to develop to their full potential. Why would this be a concern when that is applicable to every player? Adrian Peterson talks about having to improve his patience and timing and he is one of the few stars who actually did have over 1500 yards as a rookie. In his case he never developed into a good pass protector his entire career and teams always had to account for that and take him off the field during obvious passing downs.
Can he turn it around? Sure he can and Josh Rosen might be qb1 in a couple of years. All within the realm of possibility but put me in the camp that this thread has turned into 'it's all a ploy to motivate tatum bell'.
This is also hyperbolic and a premature assessment comparing him to Josh Rosen after 4 games.
If you are old enough to remember all the jokes about Tatum Bell then why haven't you learned more about football over this period of time than you are showing with these ignorant statements? The whole thing about Tatum Bell was that he was a relatively high draft pick by Mike Shanahan whos outside zone scheme had been able to get great production out of a variety of RB who were drafted much later than Bell was and thus high expectations of Bell being possibly better than those players because of his draft status being closer to Clinton Portis than any of those other RBs.
So many excuses being made when he was a high pick and should perform. RBs (especially like this) have maybe a 4-5 year window of success in the nfl and the lions are planning on wasting one of those years??? Seems like stupid drafting to me
As I have said many many times now the rookie season for a RB is not usually the best season of their career.
The Saints drafted Reggie Bush with the 2nd overall pick of the 2006 draft when they already had Duece McCallister. I suppose you think that was a stupid pick as well.