I'll give you guys one more deep cut but then I'm going to bed. In 2003, the Arizona Cardinals drafted Bryant Johnson at #17 and Anquan Boldin at #54.
It seems to me, whenever a team doubles up at a position like this the 2nd guy is really the guy they wanted the whole time. Like, the Cardinals plan probably wasn't to draft two WR but when Boldin was still there they went BPA.
So anyways, the Patriots drafted Polk at #37 and then Javon Baker at #110. I don't think they were planning on taking two WR in the first 4 rounds, but when he was still there they couldn't help themselves, he was the BPA.
Since then, all the hype I've read has been about this guy and Polk already seems like an afterthought. What I like is that he actually played at Alabama before transferring to UCF due to playing time. Polk played at Texas Tech and then Washington.
Those schools wish they were Alabama and I don't think Polk was talented enough to get recruited by Alabama. So talent wise, one is an Alabama kid and the other was lucky to get signed by Texas Tech. The difference of course is that Baker decided to bet on himself by transferring to UCF, but he's not a normal UCF talent, he's an Alabama level talent that you're getting at a small school bias.
Would I normally bet on the UCF kid over the kid from Washington? No way, but this is in all actuality is an Alabama kid I'm betting on over a Washington kid and I'll take that bet every time.
As a Pats fan and a Javon Baker truther, I appreciate this perspective, but I also want to test your conviction on it.
I like the Johnson/Boldin example, I highlighted that in the thread I made earlier of a similar topic:
I know we're dealing with outliers here but I thought it was important to be reminded that a team's first choice isn't always their best choice. I put 2000 as the cutoff as I'm sure there are many more examples historically but I wanted to keep the timeline fairly recent. --- Arizona 2003 -...
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The problem I have with comparing that to Polk and Baker is the difference in draft capital. There were 37 picks separating Johnson and Boldin. Between Polk and Baker we're talking about a 73 pick difference, that's 36 picks longer than it took the Cardinals to take Boldin after taking Johnson.
With regards to Alabama, I'm not sure what to make of it, considering DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Jameson Williams, and John Metchie were all out of the picture by the time 2022 rolled around, with incoming transfer Jermaine Burton as the only real competition at WR, but Baker still opted to transfer out. And the thing is he didn't go to a powerhouse program either. This isn't the aforementioned Burton transferring from Georgia to Alabama, or Jameson Williams from Ohio State to Alabama, or Adonai Mitchell from Georgia to Texas, or Jordan Addison from Pitt to USC. Baker went the big fish, small pond route, and did well for himself at UCF, but still only well enough to go on Day 3. I do like that he was an original Alabama recruit, but I don't like that he couldn't hang there. Missed out on a year in 2022 where he could've caught passes from Bryce Young.
As far as betting on Bama WR's over Washington WR's, any other year I'd agree. But this year's Huskies crop of WR's is different. There's only two WR's in this class from ANY school I'm taking over Rome Odunze, nevermind just from Bama. And while he may be the least talented of the options, Polk may be the most polished and safest bet to succeed in the NFL between him and either of Burton and Baker.
As you and I have both alliuded to, the first WR taken by a team isn't always the one who emerges as the better one. But as Anarchy also pointed out, those are outliers and more often than not the first WR taken is the one who succeeds over the next one. Betting on Baker over Polk is betting on an outlier. I love both of them as prospects. I just don't think it's that easy to say one is better than the other because of what school they went to. History is littered with WR's who went to smaller programs. Jerry Rice went to Mississippi Valley State. Randy Moss went to Marshall. Calvin Johnson went to Georgia Tech. Terrell Owens went to Tennessee-Chattanooga. Antonio Brown went to Central Michigan. Marvin Harrison Sr. went to Syracuse. Tyreek Hill went to West Alabama. Steve Smith went to Utah. Davante Adams went to Fresno State. etc. etc.