What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

WR Javon Baker, NE (1 Viewer)

Sitting at 3.05 in a 1QB and we are currently at 3.01 and he’s still on the board. Potential upside is legit and there’s a clear path to early targets. Fingers crossed
Unless you have other targets you like similarly, seems like the time to try and move up for your guy

Got him. Had faith he would stay on the board and wanted to let the draft come to me without giving up any more picks. Corley was also still there as a consolation prize. Sinnott/Davis/Irving/McMillan went in round 3 before me. Was a nice feeling to look at the players before draft even started, highlight Baker as the man I wanted ( barring any crazy outliers ) then just sit and wait and have it happen. So often isn’t the case

Sinnott is fine but zero chance I take those other 3 over Baker. Nice job. Sinnott, Burton, Polk, Baker, McCaffrey are my targets in that range. Like them all quite a bit. Guessing Polk and Burton were already gone.
I'd have taken Corley.

He might be the safest not to bust out of all of them, but I have a lower ceiling on him than the others. Corley should step right in and catch 40+ balls no problem though. Maybe you see a wider range of outcomes for him.
Javon Baker IMO does have strong upside. That's in general and specific to his situation where he can realistically be the WR1 on his own team. I won't even argue with anyone who thinks Baker has more upside. I think that's valid. But while I know he's good in the YAC department I tend to view him as more of a lower volume big play WR and in general not a very consistent player.

Corley just has a better combo of floor and upside to me. Also, and this debateable because Garrett Wilson is clearly the #1, a clearer path to his role and as as weak as NE's corp appears to be I still think it's mot likely Baker is not a starter to begin the season and I'll be surprised if Corley is not the week one starting slot WR with Rodgers throwing him t him while Baker likely has Brissett. This actually matters a decent amount as in this range none of them are locks to make my opening roster, and I side with the player I think has a better shot of giving and showing me a reason to keep him.
 
Sitting at 3.05 in a 1QB and we are currently at 3.01 and he’s still on the board. Potential upside is legit and there’s a clear path to early targets. Fingers crossed
Unless you have other targets you like similarly, seems like the time to try and move up for your guy

Got him. Had faith he would stay on the board and wanted to let the draft come to me without giving up any more picks. Corley was also still there as a consolation prize. Sinnott/Davis/Irving/McMillan went in round 3 before me. Was a nice feeling to look at the players before draft even started, highlight Baker as the man I wanted ( barring any crazy outliers ) then just sit and wait and have it happen. So often isn’t the case

Sinnott is fine but zero chance I take those other 3 over Baker. Nice job. Sinnott, Burton, Polk, Baker, McCaffrey are my targets in that range. Like them all quite a bit. Guessing Polk and Burton were already gone.
I'd have taken Corley.

He might be the safest not to bust out of all of them, but I have a lower ceiling on him than the others. Corley should step right in and catch 40+ balls no problem though. Maybe you see a wider range of outcomes for him.
Javon Baker IMO does have strong upside. That's in general and specific to his situation where he can realistically be the WR1 on his own team. I won't even argue with anyone who thinks Baker has more upside. I think that's valid. But while I know he's good in the YAC department I tend to view him as more of a lower volume big play WR and in general not a very consistent player.

Corley just has a better combo of floor and upside to me. Also, and this debateable because Garrett Wilson is clearly the #1, a clearer path to his role and as as weak as NE's corp appears to be I still think it's mot likely Baker is not a starter to begin the season and I'll be surprised if Corley is not the week one starting slot WR with Rodgers throwing him t him while Baker likely has Brissett. This actually matters a decent amount as in this range none of them are locks to make my opening roster, and I side with the player I think has a better shot of giving and showing me a reason to keep him.

Yeah I agree with your analysis. Guys like him are a little easier to keep in TriFlex because you still have 20 spots but no K or D. And if I have a strong team I’d rather try to squeeze the highest ceiling guy onto my roster, rather than higher floor and ceiling I don’t quite believe in. Just think Corley’s job description will have a natural ceiling of like 125-150 points, while Baker could get 200-225 range. I’d agree the former is more likely though.
 
Andrew Callahan
Sources: #Patriots WR Javon Baker dealt with a thumb fracture that kept him out of minicamp and some OTA practices.

The team posted a photo of Baker catching passes today, indicating he has been cleared for at least partial practice participation. Training camp opens Wednesday. (photo via @Patriots)
 
@32BeatWriters
"Rookie wide receiver Javon Baker made the highlight play of Friday’s practice. His role then increased on Sunday, as he worked more with the top offense. On top of a dominant performance in one-on-ones, he had a few catches in team drills as well."
 
Patriots on CLNS Media
Javon Baker gets OPEN again and makes a tough grab in 1v1s

Stumbled at the end and still made the catch 👀

- #patriots #nfl #newenglandpatriots

Patriots Coverage Powered by @Gametime & @PrizePicks
 
Derek Brown
Javon Baker CONTINUES to cook in camp.

HOW IN THE HELL DID HE LAST UNTIL RD 4 of the NFL Draft I WILL NEVER KNOW.

Don't be surprised at all if he leads the team in Targets this year. Route running baller that can be a high volume target.
 
My gut feeling is this guy becomes the guy to have down the line (dynasty), just do not have the room to wait for him in dynasty unfortunately (12 team, 18 man roster).
 
I'll give you guys one more deep cut but then I'm going to bed. In 2003, the Arizona Cardinals drafted Bryant Johnson at #17 and Anquan Boldin at #54.


It seems to me, whenever a team doubles up at a position like this the 2nd guy is really the guy they wanted the whole time. Like, the Cardinals plan probably wasn't to draft two WR but when Boldin was still there they went BPA.


So anyways, the Patriots drafted Polk at #37 and then Javon Baker at #110. I don't think they were planning on taking two WR in the first 4 rounds, but when he was still there they couldn't help themselves, he was the BPA.


Since then, all the hype I've read has been about this guy and Polk already seems like an afterthought. What I like is that he actually played at Alabama before transferring to UCF due to playing time. Polk played at Texas Tech and then Washington.


Those schools wish they were Alabama and I don't think Polk was talented enough to get recruited by Alabama. So talent wise, one is an Alabama kid and the other was lucky to get signed by Texas Tech. The difference of course is that Baker decided to bet on himself by transferring to UCF, but he's not a normal UCF talent, he's an Alabama level talent that you're getting at a small school bias.


Would I normally bet on the UCF kid over the kid from Washington? No way, but this is in all actuality is an Alabama kid I'm betting on over a Washington kid and I'll take that bet every time.
 
Alex Barth
Drops have been Javon Baker's biggest issue in training camp, and have been going back to college. A tough one on third down there to kill what was a promising drive for Drake Maye.
Did he have another drop outside of the deep pass he didn't bring down? That was a tough catch, but ultimately one he needs to make to stick in the NFL.

Absolutely beautiful throw by Maye...not an easy catch but one you need to make if you want to be a quality NFL WR.
 
I'll give you guys one more deep cut but then I'm going to bed. In 2003, the Arizona Cardinals drafted Bryant Johnson at #17 and Anquan Boldin at #54.


It seems to me, whenever a team doubles up at a position like this the 2nd guy is really the guy they wanted the whole time. Like, the Cardinals plan probably wasn't to draft two WR but when Boldin was still there they went BPA.


So anyways, the Patriots drafted Polk at #37 and then Javon Baker at #110. I don't think they were planning on taking two WR in the first 4 rounds, but when he was still there they couldn't help themselves, he was the BPA.


Since then, all the hype I've read has been about this guy and Polk already seems like an afterthought. What I like is that he actually played at Alabama before transferring to UCF due to playing time. Polk played at Texas Tech and then Washington.


Those schools wish they were Alabama and I don't think Polk was talented enough to get recruited by Alabama. So talent wise, one is an Alabama kid and the other was lucky to get signed by Texas Tech. The difference of course is that Baker decided to bet on himself by transferring to UCF, but he's not a normal UCF talent, he's an Alabama level talent that you're getting at a small school bias.


Would I normally bet on the UCF kid over the kid from Washington? No way, but this is in all actuality is an Alabama kid I'm betting on over a Washington kid and I'll take that bet every time.
I give this props for originality and a new hot take . . . but the second-receiver-drafted-by-an-NFL-team-is-the-guy-to-own spin hasn't panned out very often. Besides the fact that none of the teams in question had anything at all to do with the 2024 Patriots, here are examples from the past 15 years where a team drafted a WR in Rounds 1 or 2 and another WR in the same draft.

ATLCalvin RidleyRussell Gage
ARIAndy IsabellaHaken ButlerKeeSean Johnson
BALRashod BatemanTylan Wallace
BALMarquise BrownMiles Boykin
BALTorrey SmithTandon Doss
BUFRobert WoodsMarquise Goodwin
CARTerrace MarshallShi Smith
CARBrandon LaFellArmanti EdwardsDavid Gettis
CHIAnthony MillerJavon Wims
CINJohn RossJosh Malone
CINTyler BoydCody Core
CINA.J. GreenRyan Wheelan
CLECorey ColemanRicardo LouisJordan Payton
DENJerry JeudyKJ HamlerTyrie Cleveland
DENCourtland SuttonDaeSean Hamilton
GBPJayden ReedDontayvion WicksGrand DuBose
GBPChristian WatsonRomeo Doubs
GBPDavante AdamsJared Abbrederis
HOUWill FullerBraxton Miller
HOUDeAndre HopkinsAlan Bonner
INDMichael PittmanDezmon Patron
INDParris CampbellEJ Speed
JACLaviska ShenaultCollin Johnson
JACMarqise LeeAllen Robinson
LVRHenry RuggsLynn BowdenBryan Edwards
LVRAmari CooperAndre Dubose
LARTutu AtwellBen Skowronek
LARTavon AustinStedman Bailey
LARBrian QuickChris Givens
LACQuentin JohnsonDerius Davis
MIADeVante ParkerTony Lippett
MIAJarvis LandryMatt Hazel
MINJustin JeffersonK.J. Osborn
MINLaquon TreadwellMoritz Boehringer
NEPAaron DobsonJosh Boyce
NYJStephen HillJordan White
PHIJalen ReagorJosh HightowerQuez Watkins
PHIJordan MatthewsJosh Huff
PITGeroge PickensCalvin Austin
SFOBrandon AiyukJauan Jennings
SFODeebo SamuelJalen Hurd
SFODante PettisRichie James
SEADK MetcalfGary Jennings
SEAPaul RichardsonKevin Norwood
TBBMike EvansRobert Herron
TBBArrelious BennMike Williams
TENTreylon BurksKyle Philips
TENCorey DavisTaywan Taylor
TENDorial Green-BeckhamTre McBride
 
Last edited:
I'll give you guys one more deep cut but then I'm going to bed. In 2003, the Arizona Cardinals drafted Bryant Johnson at #17 and Anquan Boldin at #54.


It seems to me, whenever a team doubles up at a position like this the 2nd guy is really the guy they wanted the whole time. Like, the Cardinals plan probably wasn't to draft two WR but when Boldin was still there they went BPA.


So anyways, the Patriots drafted Polk at #37 and then Javon Baker at #110. I don't think they were planning on taking two WR in the first 4 rounds, but when he was still there they couldn't help themselves, he was the BPA.


Since then, all the hype I've read has been about this guy and Polk already seems like an afterthought. What I like is that he actually played at Alabama before transferring to UCF due to playing time. Polk played at Texas Tech and then Washington.


Those schools wish they were Alabama and I don't think Polk was talented enough to get recruited by Alabama. So talent wise, one is an Alabama kid and the other was lucky to get signed by Texas Tech. The difference of course is that Baker decided to bet on himself by transferring to UCF, but he's not a normal UCF talent, he's an Alabama level talent that you're getting at a small school bias.


Would I normally bet on the UCF kid over the kid from Washington? No way, but this is in all actuality is an Alabama kid I'm betting on over a Washington kid and I'll take that bet every time.

Where are you reading about Polk being an afterthought? Because I am definitely not reading/hearing that locally.
 
Alex Barth
Drops have been Javon Baker's biggest issue in training camp, and have been going back to college. A tough one on third down there to kill what was a promising drive for Drake Maye.
Did he have another drop outside of the deep pass he didn't bring down? That was a tough catch, but ultimately one he needs to make to stick in the NFL.
I thought I saw another one as well.
 
From Chad Graf:

WR Javon Baker

We’ve quickly learned that Baker is almost completely boom or bust. Thursday, it was mostly the latter.

Maye’s first deep ball was well thrown, but it never had a chance of being completed because Baker lost track of where he was and was easily pushed out of bounds early in his route. That’s a problem that’s been evident with him throughout camp.

In the second half, Maye’s best throw of the night fell just out of the outstretched arms of Baker, taking away what could’ve been a big gain for the offense.

Baker did draw a pass interference penalty, but the rookie needs to be more consistent on those deep balls.
 
I'll give you guys one more deep cut but then I'm going to bed. In 2003, the Arizona Cardinals drafted Bryant Johnson at #17 and Anquan Boldin at #54.


It seems to me, whenever a team doubles up at a position like this the 2nd guy is really the guy they wanted the whole time. Like, the Cardinals plan probably wasn't to draft two WR but when Boldin was still there they went BPA.


So anyways, the Patriots drafted Polk at #37 and then Javon Baker at #110. I don't think they were planning on taking two WR in the first 4 rounds, but when he was still there they couldn't help themselves, he was the BPA.


Since then, all the hype I've read has been about this guy and Polk already seems like an afterthought. What I like is that he actually played at Alabama before transferring to UCF due to playing time. Polk played at Texas Tech and then Washington.


Those schools wish they were Alabama and I don't think Polk was talented enough to get recruited by Alabama. So talent wise, one is an Alabama kid and the other was lucky to get signed by Texas Tech. The difference of course is that Baker decided to bet on himself by transferring to UCF, but he's not a normal UCF talent, he's an Alabama level talent that you're getting at a small school bias.


Would I normally bet on the UCF kid over the kid from Washington? No way, but this is in all actuality is an Alabama kid I'm betting on over a Washington kid and I'll take that bet every time.
As a Pats fan and a Javon Baker truther, I appreciate this perspective, but I also want to test your conviction on it.

I like the Johnson/Boldin example, I highlighted that in the thread I made earlier of a similar topic:


The problem I have with comparing that to Polk and Baker is the difference in draft capital. There were 37 picks separating Johnson and Boldin. Between Polk and Baker we're talking about a 73 pick difference, that's 36 picks longer than it took the Cardinals to take Boldin after taking Johnson.

With regards to Alabama, I'm not sure what to make of it, considering DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Jameson Williams, and John Metchie were all out of the picture by the time 2022 rolled around, with incoming transfer Jermaine Burton as the only real competition at WR, but Baker still opted to transfer out. And the thing is he didn't go to a powerhouse program either. This isn't the aforementioned Burton transferring from Georgia to Alabama, or Jameson Williams from Ohio State to Alabama, or Adonai Mitchell from Georgia to Texas, or Jordan Addison from Pitt to USC. Baker went the big fish, small pond route, and did well for himself at UCF, but still only well enough to go on Day 3. I do like that he was an original Alabama recruit, but I don't like that he couldn't hang there. Missed out on a year in 2022 where he could've caught passes from Bryce Young.

As far as betting on Bama WR's over Washington WR's, any other year I'd agree. But this year's Huskies crop of WR's is different. There's only two WR's in this class from ANY school I'm taking over Rome Odunze, nevermind just from Bama. And while he may be the least talented of the options, Polk may be the most polished and safest bet to succeed in the NFL between him and either of Burton and Baker.

As you and I have both alliuded to, the first WR taken by a team isn't always the one who emerges as the better one. But as Anarchy also pointed out, those are outliers and more often than not the first WR taken is the one who succeeds over the next one. Betting on Baker over Polk is betting on an outlier. I love both of them as prospects. I just don't think it's that easy to say one is better than the other because of what school they went to. History is littered with WR's who went to smaller programs. Jerry Rice went to Mississippi Valley State. Randy Moss went to Marshall. Calvin Johnson went to Georgia Tech. Terrell Owens went to Tennessee-Chattanooga. Antonio Brown went to Central Michigan. Marvin Harrison Sr. went to Syracuse. Tyreek Hill went to West Alabama. Steve Smith went to Utah. Davante Adams went to Fresno State. etc. etc.
 
I'll give you guys one more deep cut but then I'm going to bed. In 2003, the Arizona Cardinals drafted Bryant Johnson at #17 and Anquan Boldin at #54.


It seems to me, whenever a team doubles up at a position like this the 2nd guy is really the guy they wanted the whole time. Like, the Cardinals plan probably wasn't to draft two WR but when Boldin was still there they went BPA.


So anyways, the Patriots drafted Polk at #37 and then Javon Baker at #110. I don't think they were planning on taking two WR in the first 4 rounds, but when he was still there they couldn't help themselves, he was the BPA.


Since then, all the hype I've read has been about this guy and Polk already seems like an afterthought. What I like is that he actually played at Alabama before transferring to UCF due to playing time. Polk played at Texas Tech and then Washington.


Those schools wish they were Alabama and I don't think Polk was talented enough to get recruited by Alabama. So talent wise, one is an Alabama kid and the other was lucky to get signed by Texas Tech. The difference of course is that Baker decided to bet on himself by transferring to UCF, but he's not a normal UCF talent, he's an Alabama level talent that you're getting at a small school bias.


Would I normally bet on the UCF kid over the kid from Washington? No way, but this is in all actuality is an Alabama kid I'm betting on over a Washington kid and I'll take that bet every time.

Where are you reading about Polk being an afterthought? Because I am definitely not reading/hearing that locally.

Not him being an afterthought, I just feel for the past few weeks every time I Googled Baker over Polk, there seemed to be more buzz about Baker making plays.

These drops though, they can't happen. Like that 43 yard bomb from last night. He was open and the future starter made the throw.


Tough catch, but if you want to make it in this league you have to catch that. It's good to see him GETTING OPEN, you can't catch the ball unless you're wide open, but I may drop him outright if this is a pattern that continues.


I like players who have hands like magnets. Which ironically, is the guy I was just trashing (Polk). 😂
 
I'll give you guys one more deep cut but then I'm going to bed. In 2003, the Arizona Cardinals drafted Bryant Johnson at #17 and Anquan Boldin at #54.


It seems to me, whenever a team doubles up at a position like this the 2nd guy is really the guy they wanted the whole time. Like, the Cardinals plan probably wasn't to draft two WR but when Boldin was still there they went BPA.


So anyways, the Patriots drafted Polk at #37 and then Javon Baker at #110. I don't think they were planning on taking two WR in the first 4 rounds, but when he was still there they couldn't help themselves, he was the BPA.


Since then, all the hype I've read has been about this guy and Polk already seems like an afterthought. What I like is that he actually played at Alabama before transferring to UCF due to playing time. Polk played at Texas Tech and then Washington.


Those schools wish they were Alabama and I don't think Polk was talented enough to get recruited by Alabama. So talent wise, one is an Alabama kid and the other was lucky to get signed by Texas Tech. The difference of course is that Baker decided to bet on himself by transferring to UCF, but he's not a normal UCF talent, he's an Alabama level talent that you're getting at a small school bias.


Would I normally bet on the UCF kid over the kid from Washington? No way, but this is in all actuality is an Alabama kid I'm betting on over a Washington kid and I'll take that bet every time.
As a Pats fan and a Javon Baker truther, I appreciate this perspective, but I also want to test your conviction on it.

I like the Johnson/Boldin example, I highlighted that in the thread I made earlier of a similar topic:


The problem I have with comparing that to Polk and Baker is the difference in draft capital. There were 37 picks separating Johnson and Boldin. Between Polk and Baker we're talking about a 73 pick difference, that's 36 picks longer than it took the Cardinals to take Boldin after taking Johnson.

With regards to Alabama, I'm not sure what to make of it, considering DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Jameson Williams, and John Metchie were all out of the picture by the time 2022 rolled around, with incoming transfer Jermaine Burton as the only real competition at WR, but Baker still opted to transfer out. And the thing is he didn't go to a powerhouse program either. This isn't the aforementioned Burton transferring from Georgia to Alabama, or Jameson Williams from Ohio State to Alabama, or Adonai Mitchell from Georgia to Texas, or Jordan Addison from Pitt to USC. Baker went the big fish, small pond route, and did well for himself at UCF, but still only well enough to go on Day 3. I do like that he was an original Alabama recruit, but I don't like that he couldn't hang there. Missed out on a year in 2022 where he could've caught passes from Bryce Young.

As far as betting on Bama WR's over Washington WR's, any other year I'd agree. But this year's Huskies crop of WR's is different. There's only two WR's in this class from ANY school I'm taking over Rome Odunze, nevermind just from Bama. And while he may be the least talented of the options, Polk may be the most polished and safest bet to succeed in the NFL between him and either of Burton and Baker.

As you and I have both alliuded to, the first WR taken by a team isn't always the one who emerges as the better one. But as Anarchy also pointed out, those are outliers and more often than not the first WR taken is the one who succeeds over the next one. Betting on Baker over Polk is betting on an outlier. I love both of them as prospects. I just don't think it's that easy to say one is better than the other because of what school they went to. History is littered with WR's who went to smaller programs. Jerry Rice went to Mississippi Valley State. Randy Moss went to Marshall. Calvin Johnson went to Georgia Tech. Terrell Owens went to Tennessee-Chattanooga. Antonio Brown went to Central Michigan. Marvin Harrison Sr. went to Syracuse. Tyreek Hill went to West Alabama. Steve Smith went to Utah. Davante Adams went to Fresno State. etc. etc.

I think this is rock solid, but I think the Alabama vs Washington is just a measuring stick of talent.

Do we think he got as good coaching at UCF as he would have at Alabama or heck, even Washington like Polk got?

He's probably still doing things that should have been coached out in college because he played inferior competition, he didn't have to have great fundamentals.


So for dynasty, I just think he has more upside and Year 1 is going to be a wash. Neither guy is likely to be productive Year 1, so we're talking long-term and with some good coaching, the guy with more talent may end up being the better bet long-term.
 
The problem I have with comparing that to Polk and Baker is the difference in draft capital. There were 37 picks separating Johnson and Boldin. Between Polk and Baker we're talking about a 73 pick difference, that's 36 picks longer than it took the Cardinals to take Boldin after taking Johnson.
This is one example. I listed earlier today almost 50 other times where other 2nd or 3rd WR picks did not turn into Boldin. There are usually one or two examples that people will use to highlight something, even if that is a rarity and hardly considered the norm.
 
The problem I have with comparing that to Polk and Baker is the difference in draft capital. There were 37 picks separating Johnson and Boldin. Between Polk and Baker we're talking about a 73 pick difference, that's 36 picks longer than it took the Cardinals to take Boldin after taking Johnson.
This is one example. I listed earlier today almost 50 other times where other 2nd or 3rd WR picks did not turn into Boldin. There are usually one or two examples that people will usual to highlight something, even if that is a rarity and hardly considered the norm.
Right, but it's the fact he is an Alabama kid with more talent (in my opinion) which is why I am staking my claim that this is an instance of that.

I think one player who arguably has more upside dropped. I'm not saying this about every situation, the same way when I bet on horses I don't circle every 40-1 horse.



But when I do bet the 40-1 horse, it's usually because the first two favorites scratched. There's at least some sort of logic behind it.
 
I'll give you guys one more deep cut but then I'm going to bed. In 2003, the Arizona Cardinals drafted Bryant Johnson at #17 and Anquan Boldin at #54.


It seems to me, whenever a team doubles up at a position like this the 2nd guy is really the guy they wanted the whole time. Like, the Cardinals plan probably wasn't to draft two WR but when Boldin was still there they went BPA.


So anyways, the Patriots drafted Polk at #37 and then Javon Baker at #110. I don't think they were planning on taking two WR in the first 4 rounds, but when he was still there they couldn't help themselves, he was the BPA.


Since then, all the hype I've read has been about this guy and Polk already seems like an afterthought. What I like is that he actually played at Alabama before transferring to UCF due to playing time. Polk played at Texas Tech and then Washington.


Those schools wish they were Alabama and I don't think Polk was talented enough to get recruited by Alabama. So talent wise, one is an Alabama kid and the other was lucky to get signed by Texas Tech. The difference of course is that Baker decided to bet on himself by transferring to UCF, but he's not a normal UCF talent, he's an Alabama level talent that you're getting at a small school bias.


Would I normally bet on the UCF kid over the kid from Washington? No way, but this is in all actuality is an Alabama kid I'm betting on over a Washington kid and I'll take that bet every time.

Where are you reading about Polk being an afterthought? Because I am definitely not reading/hearing that locally.

Not him being an afterthought, I just feel for the past few weeks every time I Googled Baker over Polk, there seemed to be more buzz about Baker making plays.

These drops though, they can't happen. Like that 43 yard bomb from last night. He was open and the future starter made the throw.


Tough catch, but if you want to make it in this league you have to catch that. It's good to see him GETTING OPEN, you can't catch the ball unless you're wide open, but I may drop him outright if this is a pattern that continues.


I like players who have hands like magnets. Which ironically, is the guy I was just trashing (Polk). 😂

Baker has had his share of "wow" plays and his personality is more dynamic but Polk has been better...he is more polished and more advanced than Baker and looks the part of an NFL WR...I don't think Polk will end up being a #1 NFL WR but I think he can be a quality, reliable #2...fantasy-wise I definitely like him over Baker...Baker will have big-play ability, but I don't think he will ever be a big volume guy...especially once the Pats add another legit WR as well as upgrade the TE position.
 
The problem I have with comparing that to Polk and Baker is the difference in draft capital. There were 37 picks separating Johnson and Boldin. Between Polk and Baker we're talking about a 73 pick difference, that's 36 picks longer than it took the Cardinals to take Boldin after taking Johnson.
This is one example. I listed earlier today almost 50 other times where other 2nd or 3rd WR picks did not turn into Boldin. There are usually one or two examples that people will usual to highlight something, even if that is a rarity and hardly considered the norm.
Right, but it's the fact he is an Alabama kid with more talent (in my opinion) which is why I am staking my claim that this is an instance of that.

I think one player who arguably has more upside dropped. I'm not saying this about every situation, the same way when I bet on horses I don't circle every 40-1 horse.



But when I do bet the 40-1 horse, it's usually because the first two favorites scratched. There's at least some sort of logic behind it.
The one thing that has me considering Baker over Polk is how aggressive the Pats were in trying to find a WR1 outside the team, whether it was Calvin Ridley or Brandon Aiyuk. I feel like right now, Polk is a lot more likely to see playing time this season than Baker. But it also tells me the Pats may not necessarily be as comfortable anointing Polk as the WR1 of the future as those of us in the fantasy football community are. In my head I see it as Polk being closer to a finished product, and the team seeing him ideally as their WR2, whereas Baker is farther away, but could fill that WR1 role in due time. But it's also a flawed theory because if they got Ridley or Aiyuk then Baker's path to WR1 would be blocked. I think it's fair to say Baker has the higher ceiling but lower floor, whereas Polk has the higher floor (safer) but lower ceiling (though hopefully not "Mohamed Sanu" low, not a fan of that comparison that I've heard from others).
 
The problem I have with comparing that to Polk and Baker is the difference in draft capital. There were 37 picks separating Johnson and Boldin. Between Polk and Baker we're talking about a 73 pick difference, that's 36 picks longer than it took the Cardinals to take Boldin after taking Johnson.
This is one example. I listed earlier today almost 50 other times where other 2nd or 3rd WR picks did not turn into Boldin. There are usually one or two examples that people will usual to highlight something, even if that is a rarity and hardly considered the norm.
Right, but it's the fact he is an Alabama kid with more talent (in my opinion) which is why I am staking my claim that this is an instance of that.

I think one player who arguably has more upside dropped. I'm not saying this about every situation, the same way when I bet on horses I don't circle every 40-1 horse.



But when I do bet the 40-1 horse, it's usually because the first two favorites scratched. There's at least some sort of logic behind it.
The one thing that has me considering Baker over Polk is how aggressive the Pats were in trying to find a WR1 outside the team, whether it was Calvin Ridley or Brandon Aiyuk. I feel like right now, Polk is a lot more likely to see playing time this season than Baker. But it also tells me the Pats may not necessarily be as comfortable anointing Polk as the WR1 of the future as those of us in the fantasy football community are. In my head I see it as Polk being closer to a finished product, and the team seeing him ideally as their WR2, whereas Baker is farther away, but could fill that WR1 role in due time. But it's also a flawed theory because if they got Ridley or Aiyuk then Baker's path to WR1 would be blocked. I think it's fair to say Baker has the higher ceiling but lower floor, whereas Polk has the higher floor (safer) but lower ceiling (though hopefully not "Mohamed Sanu" low, not a fan of that comparison that I've heard from others).

I feel very strongly (and I'd love to be wrong) that the Pats future #1 is not currently on the team.
 
The problem I have with comparing that to Polk and Baker is the difference in draft capital. There were 37 picks separating Johnson and Boldin. Between Polk and Baker we're talking about a 73 pick difference, that's 36 picks longer than it took the Cardinals to take Boldin after taking Johnson.
This is one example. I listed earlier today almost 50 other times where other 2nd or 3rd WR picks did not turn into Boldin. There are usually one or two examples that people will usual to highlight something, even if that is a rarity and hardly considered the norm.
Right, but it's the fact he is an Alabama kid with more talent (in my opinion) which is why I am staking my claim that this is an instance of that.

I think one player who arguably has more upside dropped. I'm not saying this about every situation, the same way when I bet on horses I don't circle every 40-1 horse.



But when I do bet the 40-1 horse, it's usually because the first two favorites scratched. There's at least some sort of logic behind it.
The Cardinals had very few WR options. Boldin ended up with 165 targets that season. Bryant Johnson got 77. Bryan Gilmore was next at 45. As far as this Patriots team goes, Bourne is likely to be one of the main targets when he gets back. For now, Douglas, Osborn, and Thornton have been the starting WR group. Polk has been considered consistent and reliable. And Boutte is still in the mix. Given all that, I don't see Baker coming out of those guys with 165 targets this year. On top of that, I suspect the offense will be run heavy, the OL is still terrible, Maye may not play all season, and the offense as a whole could be absolutely putrid. If you want to hang your hat on the 18th WR drafted, who am I to stop you.

Teams have hit on guys taken later than that . . . Puka, Tyreek, Antonio Brown, and Edleman to name a few. Not saying Baker couldn't be one of them, but IMO the fact they took Polk really shouldn't serve as a reason to consider Baker as potentially being "that guy." But those other guys had Stafford, Mahomes, Big Ben, and Brady. Not sure this Patriots team has one of those QBs on the roster.
 
The problem I have with comparing that to Polk and Baker is the difference in draft capital. There were 37 picks separating Johnson and Boldin. Between Polk and Baker we're talking about a 73 pick difference, that's 36 picks longer than it took the Cardinals to take Boldin after taking Johnson.
This is one example. I listed earlier today almost 50 other times where other 2nd or 3rd WR picks did not turn into Boldin. There are usually one or two examples that people will usual to highlight something, even if that is a rarity and hardly considered the norm.
Right, but it's the fact he is an Alabama kid with more talent (in my opinion) which is why I am staking my claim that this is an instance of that.

I think one player who arguably has more upside dropped. I'm not saying this about every situation, the same way when I bet on horses I don't circle every 40-1 horse.



But when I do bet the 40-1 horse, it's usually because the first two favorites scratched. There's at least some sort of logic behind it.
The Cardinals had very few WR options. Boldin ended up with 165 targets that season. Bryant Johnson got 77. Bryan Gilmore was next at 45. As far as this Patriots team goes, Bourne is likely to be one of the main targets when he gets back. For now, Douglas, Osborn, and Thornton have been the starting WR group. Polk has been considered consistent and reliable. And Boutte is still in the mix. Given all that, I don't see Baker coming out of those guys with 165 targets this year. On top of that, I suspect the offense will be run heavy, the OL is still terrible, Maye may not play all season, and the offense as a whole could be absolutely putrid. If you want to hang your hat on the 18th WR drafted, who am I to stop you.

Teams have hit on guys taken later than that . . . Puka, Tyreek, Antonio Brown, and Edleman to name a few. Not saying Baker couldn't be one of them, but IMO the fact they took Polk really shouldn't serve as a reason to consider Baker as potentially being "that guy." But those other guys had Stafford, Mahomes, Big Ben, and Brady. Not sure this Patriots team has one of those QBs on the roster.

Come on, it's fun! I drafted him in the 3rd Round in a handful of dynasties. An Alabama talent at the cost of a kid from UCF.

Worst case scenario, I drop him to pickup a backup Kicker during the bye week. He's got buzz and in my opinion, his value has already increased since I first drafted him.


Gotta give them time. Sometimes the light bulb comes on right away and other times it takes a little longer, but he's getting open 43 yards down the field and almost made a jaw dropping catch.


Imagine if he caught that? I probably would have already been able to flip him for a small profit. I didn't have Polk rated high, seems like a solid career WR2. Higher floor, lower ceiling.
 
He's getting open 43 yards down the field and almost made a jaw dropping catch.
If you have league mates that put much stock in isolated plays in meaningless preseason games against guys that could be serving fries and pumping gas in a few weeks, then sign me up to play in your league. In this case, he didn't even make the play. That still doesn't change my opinion of the offense and where Baker likely is on the depth chart. Again, I am only commenting on the situation in NE and not Baker himself. There are reasons Hopkins, Ridley, and Aiyuk didn't want to play for NE.
 
He's getting open 43 yards down the field and almost made a jaw dropping catch.
If you have league mates that put much stock in isolated plays in meaningless preseason games against guys that could be serving fries and pumping gas in a few weeks, then sign me up to play in your league. In this case, he didn't even make the play. That still doesn't change my opinion of the offense and where Baker likely is on the depth chart. Again, I am only commenting on the situation in NE and not Baker himself. There are reasons Hopkins, Ridley, and Aiyuk didn't want to play for NE.
Hopkins absolutely wanted to play for BB, the two have mutual respect for each other. But it came down to money and the Pats weren’t willing to pay him as much as the Titans were.

Mike Reiss said this recently but you have to pay the Suck Tax to bring in guys like that, and it sometimes you suck so bad as a team that it’s still not enough. Right now if you have to play in football Siberia you’ll go with Green Bay or Buffalo before you go with New England.
 
@32BeatWriters
“Javon Baker still isn’t making plays as regularly as he was at the start of camp, and seems to have fallen out of the top wide receiver rotation. Based on his practice reps it doesn’t look like he’ll have a big role in the offense once the season starts.”
 
Right, but it's the fact he is an Alabama kid with more talent (in my opinion) which is why I am staking my claim that this is an instance of that.
This is pretty silly just to take the guy because of by where he chose to sign 4 years ago. Baker wasn't some can't-miss 5 star, he was a low 4 star and WR57 that year. Marvin Harrison was WR21 and Malik Nabors WR19 on 247, you taking Christian Leary and JoJo Earle over them "cause 'Bama"?
 
Right, but it's the fact he is an Alabama kid with more talent (in my opinion) which is why I am staking my claim that this is an instance of that.
This is pretty silly just to take the guy because of by where he chose to sign 4 years ago. Baker wasn't some can't-miss 5 star, he was a low 4 star and WR57 that year. Marvin Harrison was WR21 and Malik Nabors WR19 on 247, you taking Christian Leary and JoJo Earle over them "cause 'Bama"?

I've never even heard of those guys before. :lol: So heck, idk, maybe I would!

Life isn't full of binary equations. Each situation is like a pretty snowflake. Unique in its own way.
 
Still lots of upside with Baker but lots that need working on. Him playing into the 4th quarter of the final preseason game doesn’t bode well to his place on the otherwise wide open WR depth chart. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a game day inactive more often than not for his rookie season. Douglas, Polk, Thornton, Bourne (when healthy) all ahead of him, and I imagine they’ll hold Osborn too as a veteran.

At the end of the day he’s still a Day 3 prospect who still needs work on his route running and catching the ball with more consistency. Here’s hoping he shows enough improvement over the course of the season to make an impact at some point.
 
Still lots of upside with Baker but lots that need working on. Him playing into the 4th quarter of the final preseason game doesn’t bode well to his place on the otherwise wide open WR depth chart. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a game day inactive more often than not for his rookie season. Douglas, Polk, Thornton, Bourne (when healthy) all ahead of him, and I imagine they’ll hold Osborn too as a veteran.

At the end of the day he’s still a Day 3 prospect who still needs work on his route running and catching the ball with more consistency. Here’s hoping he shows enough improvement over the course of the season to make an impact at some point
I feel very strongly (and I'd love to be wrong) that the Pats future #1 is not currently on the team.

If there's an NFL wr1 on the pats, my money is on Baker.

But yeah, there probably isn't an NFL wr1 on the pats. I'm holding through the year to find out.
 
Still lots of upside with Baker but lots that need working on. Him playing into the 4th quarter of the final preseason game doesn’t bode well to his place on the otherwise wide open WR depth chart. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a game day inactive more often than not for his rookie season. Douglas, Polk, Thornton, Bourne (when healthy) all ahead of him, and I imagine they’ll hold Osborn too as a veteran.

At the end of the day he’s still a Day 3 prospect who still needs work on his route running and catching the ball with more consistency. Here’s hoping he shows enough improvement over the course of the season to make an impact at some point
I feel very strongly (and I'd love to be wrong) that the Pats future #1 is not currently on the team.

If there's an NFL wr1 on the pats, my money is on Baker.

But yeah, there probably isn't an NFL wr1 on the pats. I'm holding through the year to find out.

I would definitely go Polk over Baker although I don't think he's a #1 either...hoping Polk is a quality, reliable #2...Baker flashed early but it is becoming more and more apparent he has legit holes in his game that may limit his upside...I just don't see him being able to take that type of leap.
 
I'm not sure Baker will see the field much this season. For whatever sense it makes, the Pats apparently are ready to roll with Douglas, Osborn, and Thornton as their starting WR group. Bourne is expected to take on a significant role and should be one of the starters upon his return. And Polk has earned praise and adulation throughout camp while Baker has fallen to the back of the WR pack over the last several weeks. That likely will slot him as their WR5. At this point, Baker could be compared to Boutte (who is on the roster bubble and may have to settle for a practice squad spot if he can clear waivers). Both guys were Day 3 picks with upside . . . but we'll have to see if they can stick around and develop into something.
 
Still lots of upside with Baker but lots that need working on. Him playing into the 4th quarter of the final preseason game doesn’t bode well to his place on the otherwise wide open WR depth chart. Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a game day inactive more often than not for his rookie season. Douglas, Polk, Thornton, Bourne (when healthy) all ahead of him, and I imagine they’ll hold Osborn too as a veteran.

At the end of the day he’s still a Day 3 prospect who still needs work on his route running and catching the ball with more consistency. Here’s hoping he shows enough improvement over the course of the season to make an impact at some point
I feel very strongly (and I'd love to be wrong) that the Pats future #1 is not currently on the team.

If there's an NFL wr1 on the pats, my money is on Baker.

But yeah, there probably isn't an NFL wr1 on the pats. I'm holding through the year to find out.

I would definitely go Polk over Baker although I don't think he's a #1 either...hoping Polk is a quality, reliable #2...Baker flashed early but it is becoming more and more apparent he has legit holes in his game that may limit his upside...I just don't see him being able to take that type of leap.
Yeah, I would take Polk over him as well. Polk's much more likely to be a solid contributor. I just think Baker is the only one with WR1 upside, however unlikely it is he hits that upside.
 
I'm not sure Baker will see the field much this season. For whatever sense it makes, the Pats apparently are ready to roll with Douglas, Osborn, and Thornton as their starting WR group. Bourne is expected to take on a significant role and should be one of the starters upon his return. And Polk has earned praise and adulation throughout camp while Baker has fallen to the back of the WR pack over the last several weeks. That likely will slot him as their WR5. At this point, Baker could be compared to Boutte (who is on the roster bubble and may have to settle for a practice squad spot if he can clear waivers). Both guys were Day 3 picks with upside . . . but we'll have to see if they can stick around and develop into something.
Yeah that seems pretty likely for September- October. I suspect they will see what they have in Baker later in the year assuming they fall out of contention at some point.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top