Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well then the question is what is more?
You can always take one of the WR I suppose, I am just not sure that will end up being more.
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RB James Cook, BUF (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
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You can always take one of the WR I suppose, I am just not sure that will end up being more.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
That’s the thing that those who say things like “he’s a reach at 1.11” ignore - so if you don’t think he’s worth the pick who is?
While guys who drafted Sermon and Carter last year probably have some regrets, I’m also sure those that drafted Terrance Marshall, Ronald Moore or Amari Rodgers in the same range aren’t exactly celebrating.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
I’m sitting at pick 14 in an IDP, it’s looking like Cook is the BPA but I’m not convinced. I wouldn’t take spiller for a while yet
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I'm sure IDP plays into it, but I don't play IDP.s From what I've observed Spiller is going early 2nd in most cases and Cook is going 1.08 / 1.09 ish in start 1qb leagues. I prefer Spiller over Cook. I think he's a better RB and is more likely to be a workhorse type fantasy asset than Cook will ever be.
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beef
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Now I could get onboard with that regarding Cook. He definitely has value in PPR leagues, as do other RBs with his profile. I just choose to not invest a first round pick in one of them. Now if you're drafting Cook in the 2nd round, then have at it, but i feel it's a mistake to draft him in the first round of rookie drafts.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Count me in with Spiller over Cook. The Bills are telling us what he's going to be. Yes, that could change, especially until they land a feature back-type (which I suspect they'll eventually do).
I don't do projections, but Cook could have a good rookie season if he can get in the end zone enough. That said, I'm not nearly as high on him as many others from a dynasty standpoint.
I don't do projections, but Cook could have a good rookie season if he can get in the end zone enough. That said, I'm not nearly as high on him as many others from a dynasty standpoint.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You're splitting hairs.
If you held a gun to my head I probably wouldn't take Cook in the early 2nd (2.01 - 2.04), but may consider him afterwards.
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Boston
Footballguy
What do you think the Chargers plan for Spiller is? He is a 4th round pick who is joining a team with one of the premiere pass-catching backs in the NFL who also ran for 911 yards...as for the plan for Cook I don't think anyone can be surprised how he will be used because that is exactly how he has been advertised...the question really is, do you think he is good enough to catch 60-70 receptions and go over 1,000 combined yards or do you think he will be too situational to be reliable...I really like the fact he is a 2nd round pick going to a high-octane offense, that is a big plus but I also don't believe he will ever be the main RB there but since I see RBBC becoming the norm I don't hold that against him like I would have years ago...overall if you are looking for a feature RB you are gonna overlook him...my hope (and projection right now) is you are getting a quality RB that while you don't want to roll out there every week you will be glad you have when bye weeks and injuries add up...I think that type of player is easily overlooked and undervalued in the offseason when everyone is healthy and there is no adversity.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I don't see Singletary or Moss being a thing in that high octane offense. I'd much rather take a chance on Spiller long term with the Chargers over the smaller COP back in Cook and at a slightly less draft price.
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Boston
Footballguy
I don't understand what Singletary and Moss have to do with Cook...they are a totally different style of player.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You're the one who said "2nd round pick going into a high octane offense", I just simply pointed out that from a fantasy perspective the guys they have haven't exactly set the woods on fire in that high octane offense and had hype too at one time. Yes, a PPR back like Cook will have value, but long term I would rather take a chance in Spiller at a lesser price and is more suited for workhorse use. He could be something on the Chargers long term. I don't see that with Cook, especially spending a first round pick on him.
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Boston
Footballguy
Again, they are not the same-style of RB so to me that comparison doesn't make sense...if you want to make comparisons an easier one would be why would Spiller be any different than Jackson, Kelly and Rountree.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I guess it boils down to a personal preference by me, made recently, that I'm done spending a first round pick on RBs < 200 lbs and really less than 210. I've been burned too many times. I might bite in the 2nd because of their PPR value, but not in the first.....I'm done.
Boston
Footballguy
That I can agree with...also, let's be honest...in most other years Cook would not be flirting with the first round...this year there is only one QB of note right now, only two high-quality RBs, probably no TE's and there are so many quality WRs coming into the league most good Dynasty Owners are probably already pretty loaded with good young WRs that they may want to add more talent to their backfield rather than adding to an already stacked unit...I definitely would not get hung up on the first round part due to that...this year is kind of an outlier.
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Football Jones
Footballguy
I think they look at Spiller as their backup right now (maybe the GL back), but I suspect they're high enough on him to be their feature back in a year or two.
It's really up to him. I believe Spiller has the ability to be a feature back in the NFL. I think he's the clear RB3 in this class. Spiller isn't the prospect Hall & Walker are, but it wouldn't surprise me if he scores more FF points in his career.
He's also young enough that you can afford to sit on him a couple seasons if need be.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Outlier or not, I've made a decision this year about running backs and I will stick to it going forward for the near future. I am personally refusing to draft RBs in the first round that don't meet my size expectations. Like I said, I've been burned too many times selecting these guys in the first round. I may miss on some because of that philosophy, but I don't think I'm wrong in most cases. I might bite in the 2nd round if it's the right player, but.........
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Did you bite in the first? If not, the second and which one? One can carry a different opinion on each.
Boston
Footballguy
Agree with this:
Summary
The Bills have had varied results from their running backs under head coach Sean McDermott. Remember, it wasn’t long ago that they tried to force a power game with Frank Gore on the roster. The James Cook pick suggests that Buffalo may have realized that wasn’t a good match for their team. Cook isn’t dominant enough to think that offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey will be under the impression he can work from any scheme. The alternative then is the team believes Cook is a match for what they intend to run.
The Bills love to pass. The Bills have liked fast and agile players, committing to this extreme even more last season. Cook appears to be a player who will thrive in certain systems. I think he’s a good fit in Buffalo.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I was talking about the Bills. Maybe they drafted Cook because they weren’t happy about Singletary and Moss.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Their track record isn't so good. Not saying this one isn't right, but he doesn't seem to be a RB that is an every down (or 2 down) back, so his value fantasy wise is predicated on PPR. Not someone I want to spend a first round pick on. I would rather wiff on a WR or QB.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
James Cook was the 3rd RB selected in the NFL draft. Spiller was the 9th RB selected.
Now obviously there is a lot more information than this to inform ones decision.
That said the most predictive data point is draft position.
I have heard people's points about Cook not having workhorse usage in college and that Cook has low weight/BMI. I think these are important data points to consider as well.
However if it is an outlier for a player with James Cooks weight/BMI becoming a productive RB in FF you also have to acknowledge that it is an outlier for the 9th RB selected becoming one and less likely than the 3rd RB selected.
Now obviously there is a lot more information than this to inform ones decision.
That said the most predictive data point is draft position.
I have heard people's points about Cook not having workhorse usage in college and that Cook has low weight/BMI. I think these are important data points to consider as well.
However if it is an outlier for a player with James Cooks weight/BMI becoming a productive RB in FF you also have to acknowledge that it is an outlier for the 9th RB selected becoming one and less likely than the 3rd RB selected.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Football Jones
Footballguy
I’ve taken a lot of #### for my stance on smaller (lighter) RBs, LOL, but facts are facts. I’m sorry to tell people who think otherwise, but I’ve got news for you. For every pound RBs lack, they need to make up for it somehow. Guys like CMAC can get away with it, but the vast majority can’t.
The only RB I’ve ever even come close to missing on due to my general stance is Aaron Jones…& it’s not like he’s tearing it up. Don’t get me wrong, I like Cook, but long-term, I think he’ll be more valuable to the Bills than your FF team. And I say that knowing he could end up having a nice rookie season.
BTW, yes, Cook’s outlook is a little better in PPR leagues.
The only RB I’ve ever even come close to missing on due to my general stance is Aaron Jones…& it’s not like he’s tearing it up. Don’t get me wrong, I like Cook, but long-term, I think he’ll be more valuable to the Bills than your FF team. And I say that knowing he could end up having a nice rookie season.
BTW, yes, Cook’s outlook is a little better in PPR leagues.
Boston
Footballguy
TripItUp
Footballguy
How about 4th round RBs that land on elite offenses.
Also, historical data skewed a bit since RBs go later now than they did 10 years ago.
I did notice a few weeks ago that 6 of the 7 Rb's that ran for over 1,000 last year were 225+. The lone outlier was the other Cook.
Obviously fantasy stats are much more then rushing numbers but still only one sub 225 RB'swas top 7 in fantasy, Ekeler, with Kamara and Jones coming close as RB8 and 10 in season total points for PPR.
I would imagine if someone took the time to break it down by BMI that you'd need to get down to around RB36 before you find a RB he might have a higher BMI and ironically that RB is McKissic.
Late to this talk so not sure if people are arguing about his size being an issue but I don't see how it's not THE major concern. The counter argument and one I believe in is that we've seen some of these elite pass catching Rb's have multiple 10+ fantasy point per game seasons just on receiving totals. I'm not sure he can do that because I'm not sure how much he'll be on the field but if he can be that, add in 3-4 fantasy points as runner, then we're talking about a RB who will typically come in that RB 12-15 type range.
Obviously fantasy stats are much more then rushing numbers but still only one sub 225 RB'swas top 7 in fantasy, Ekeler, with Kamara and Jones coming close as RB8 and 10 in season total points for PPR.
I would imagine if someone took the time to break it down by BMI that you'd need to get down to around RB36 before you find a RB he might have a higher BMI and ironically that RB is McKissic.
Late to this talk so not sure if people are arguing about his size being an issue but I don't see how it's not THE major concern. The counter argument and one I believe in is that we've seen some of these elite pass catching Rb's have multiple 10+ fantasy point per game seasons just on receiving totals. I'm not sure he can do that because I'm not sure how much he'll be on the field but if he can be that, add in 3-4 fantasy points as runner, then we're talking about a RB who will typically come in that RB 12-15 type range.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
The predictive value of draft position is based on history.
That is not the only way to use history or experience to predict the future but what I was talking about certainly does do that.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don’t dislike Spiller and agree on the landing spot, I was just saying when you bring in history, bring it all in.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I don’t like BMI by itself. You can have a good BMI & still be light if you’re short.
That brings us to the question, does it matter for injury prevention? Maybe, but genetics, preparation, & luck are the biggest factors, IMO.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
There is certainly a lot more to history than predictive value of the draft. The fact remains that smaller RBs are far more less likely to to become workhorse RBs in the NFL. That is not to say they won't have value in PPR, they do, but I would rather not spend a first round pick on one.
Yes but James Cook is not short and has a lower BMI then most of the 200 pd and under relevant RB's which is why I mentioned it.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Gotcha.
I really was just commenting on my view on BMI (I essentially don’t use it in my evals).
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
For the record I have watched Cook, his lack of power and contact balance is obvious while being contrasted by his good footwork and change of direction ability.
He does not run between the tackles well at all, to the point where a lot of his runs are tosses and other plays to help him get to the outside or provide cut back opportunities.
If he gets blocking he has good enough vision, good burst and speed to gain yards but he isnt breaking tackles or getting much after contact.
As usual I'm just playing devils advocate here to have a good discussion.
He does not run between the tackles well at all, to the point where a lot of his runs are tosses and other plays to help him get to the outside or provide cut back opportunities.
If he gets blocking he has good enough vision, good burst and speed to gain yards but he isnt breaking tackles or getting much after contact.
As usual I'm just playing devils advocate here to have a good discussion.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
There is also a difference between fact and opinion which your statement seems to be unaware of.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Of course he'll be in a time share. Did you expect otherwise? Kamara started in a time share , too. Best we can hope for is Kamara-lite.
I envision Cook a RB2 in PPR with upside if he gets goalline work. Hopefully, he surprises.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Football Jones said:
Say what now?
Aaron Jones has two top 3 fantasy finishes. I think the only active backs that can say that are Jones, CMC, Ekeler, and Kamara. Ironically other than Kamara the other three may be the 3 lightest starting RBs in the league.
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zamboni
Footballguy
For redraft purposes, I think Cook might bring a safer PPR floor than a Spiller might - unless you're banking on an Ekeler injury. It seems safe to assume that Cook will have some involvement in the offense (to which degree no one knows yet), while I think Spiller might just be given a handful of carries.
For dynasty purposes, I'd prefer Spiller given that he seems to offer more of a three-down skill set in an offense that is not shy about using a workhorse. As others have said, Cook might always be part of an RBBC even if Singletary and Moss are gone. It wasn't until down the stretch that Singletary became the workhorse, but mainly because they didn't have better options to pair with him at that point.
The wildcard is draft capital though, as the investment in Cook is considerably higher. The Chargers used only a 4th rounder on Spiller, so if he doesn't flash, the decision to replace him as the successor to Ekeler probably won't be that difficult to make.
For dynasty purposes, I'd prefer Spiller given that he seems to offer more of a three-down skill set in an offense that is not shy about using a workhorse. As others have said, Cook might always be part of an RBBC even if Singletary and Moss are gone. It wasn't until down the stretch that Singletary became the workhorse, but mainly because they didn't have better options to pair with him at that point.
The wildcard is draft capital though, as the investment in Cook is considerably higher. The Chargers used only a 4th rounder on Spiller, so if he doesn't flash, the decision to replace him as the successor to Ekeler probably won't be that difficult to make.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Cook looks like he can develop into a James White type production IMO. It is up to the owner how much they value that. This draft is one of my least favorite in a long time. I believe the range of where many of these guys get chosen will be greater than normal and interesting to see.
Boston
Footballguy
Agree 100%...I see his upside as James White at his best and agree that there appears to be Owners who want home run upside with their young RBs and Owners who are comfortably with a solid double and a guy you are happy starting when injuries and byes start piling up...IMO the point that might be missed by some is with RBBC here to stay many teams just aren't going to commit to one RB being the man (good luck finding another Derrick Henry) so you have to start adjusting your expectations because another young RB or quality veteran is going to be added to an NFL team's depth chart regularly...Cook and Spiller are two examples of RBs I do not ever see being a workhorse and right now I like Cook better because he was drafted in the second round, his skill-set is a perfect match for the team he is playing for and I just think it will be easier for him to put up quality fantasy numbers with how he will be used.
You also touch on this draft, and I mentioned it earlier...there is pushback on Cook going in the first and I think that is another adjust your expectations situation...most years he is not sniffing the first, but this year is far different, and he will go higher than normal but I don't think that is a product of high expectations but rather not being too impressed with the other options.
Football Jones
Footballguy
Jones is tearing it up?
I have a tremendous success rate eliminating light RBs who don’t have enough things going for them. That’s all I’m saying. It’s not like it’s rocket science.
Getting back to Cook, no, I wouldn’t invest a high pick in him.
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