BobbyLayne
Footballguy
When you take away the eggs benedict I had at brunch Sunday and the New York strip I had Monday, my meal intake this week has been mediocre and ordinary. Acknowledging the inherent limitations of sample size, naturally.
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RB James Robinson, NE (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JFS171
- Start date
Chaka
Footballguy
It is a fallacy when you try to remove the longest run. The run happened, that's a fact and you don't get to take it away. It happens for every RB every week and you don't get to remove it from them either. No one runs for exactly 5 yards on every single carry.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m not trying to remove the longest run.
I’m pointing out that all the rest of his runs were sub-par, and aligned with his last 2 games prior.
Try to keep up.
But what is that really doing for you.? He had the long runs. He was able to do that so why won't he do that moving forward? It's part of what he does. I am not sure what saying he averages 3.2 ypc anytime he doesn't have runs longer than 10 yds does for you. I would guess that is similar to most other RB'sI’m not trying to remove the longest run.
I’m pointing out that all the rest of his runs were sub-par, and aligned with his last 2 games prior.
Try to keep up.
Chaka
Footballguy
The context is the 50 yard run happened, that's all there is to it.I’m not trying to remove the longest run.
I’m pointing out that all the rest of his runs were sub-par, and aligned with his last 2 games prior.
Try to keep up.
How about this one: 1994 Barry Sanders. 331 carries, 1,883 yards for a 5.7 clip. One of the best RB seasons of all time. Take away his long run from each game you end up with 315 carries for 1,256 yards and a 4.0 yards per carry average.
Does that make Barry average, or slightly below? Of course not because he was the only RB ever who could manage 627 yards on 16 total, cherry picked, carries in a single season (39.2 ypc). But it makes him substantially below average when compared with the Barry who had those long runs each game. And Barry to Barry is the only fair comparison as is James Robinson only fair to compare to James Robinson in this context.
Obviously it is categorically unfair to compare James Robinson to a guy who is unquestionably on the Mount Rushmore of NFL RBs. But this would hold for every single RB ever. You can't remove the long run to add context because the long run actually happened. To do so is to make the argument that the longest run will not happen next game, or ever again, and there is the crux of the fallacy which renders the entire thought experiment irrelevant.
James Robinson is decent RB coming off a difficult injury, and by all measures acquitting himself well. The unfortunate part for him is that he went from running behind one of the better offensive lines in the league, and a competent passing, to one of the most questionable offensive lines with a sub par passing. It is going to be tough, all around for Robinson RoS.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I was just looking at his last 3 games in the context that he’s tapered off, which was the statement that had been challenged.But what is that really doing for you.? He had the long runs. He was able to do that so why won't he do that moving forward? It's part of what he does. I am not sure what saying he averages 3.2 ypc anytime he doesn't have runs longer than 10 yds does for you. I would guess that is similar to most other RB'sI’m not trying to remove the longest run.
I’m pointing out that all the rest of his runs were sub-par, and aligned with his last 2 games prior.
Try to keep up.
Looking *only* at YPC, his last game looked better than the prior 2. But digging deeper into the last game, it looked better as an aggregate than on an actual per carry basis.
His long wasn’t some 70+ yard explosion - just a 14 yard carry to carry his day.
I’m well aware of the “well if he didn’t have that 60 yard touchdown” schtick, and have argued against it many times myself.
I was just looking at his last 3 and indeed, his numbers had been falling compared to earlier in the season. And especially compared to ETN who’d been at 6-8 YPC YPC in those same games. Context matters.
I’m sure he’ll be fine for the Jets.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The context is the 50 yard run happened, that's all there is to it.I’m not trying to remove the longest run.
I’m pointing out that all the rest of his runs were sub-par, and aligned with his last 2 games prior.
Try to keep up.
How about this one: 1994 Barry Sanders. 331 carries, 1,883 yards for a 5.7 clip. One of the best RB seasons of all time. Take away his long run from each game you end up with 315 carries for 1,256 yards and a 4.0 yards per carry average.
Does that make Barry average, or slightly below? Of course not because he was the only RB ever who could manage 627 yards on 16 total, cherry picked, carries in a single season (39.2 ypc).
Obviously it is categorically unfair to compare James Robinson to a guy who is unquestionably on the Mount Rushmore of NFL RBs. But this would hold for every single RB ever. You can't remove the long run to add context because the long run actually happened. To do so is to make the argument that the longest run will not happen next game, or ever again, and there is the crux of the fallacy which renders the entire thought experiment irrelevant.
James Robinson is decent RB coming off a difficult injury, and by all measures acquitting himself well. The unfortunate part for him is that he went from running behind one of the better offensive lines in the league, and a competent passing, to one of the most questionable offensive lines with a sub par passing. It is going to be tough, all around for Robinson RoS.
Yes, I’m in total agreement with you, big picture, but you have the wrong context.
See my last post, which you’re taking entirely out of the context of the discussion in which it was made (Robinson tapering off y or n, and comparative to ETN)
smbkrypt24
Footballguy
When the other person is always the one taking your post "out of context", it is time to look in the mirror and see your contribution to that.
Chaka has said it well so no need for me to get into the weeds, but a small sample size with long runs or a long run being removed seems like a fools errand to draw conclusions from.
Chaka has said it well so no need for me to get into the weeds, but a small sample size with long runs or a long run being removed seems like a fools errand to draw conclusions from.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Again, it was in context of the discussion, “are his numbers tapering off”
Over his last 3 games they seemed to be. Someone pointed out his last game’s YPC as evidence they have not been tapering off. My exclusion of 1 run was to demonstrate that the last game was aligned with his prior 2 YPC save for that 1 run.
I’m well aware of the cherry picking fallacy and am 99.9% in agreement with you when it’s employed.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Performance, and he’s currently nursing a knee injury. Plus the emergency of Hasty as a viable RB2 for the Jags made him expendable.
I would have thought they could get more, but his contract makes this essentially a ROS rental.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Brilliant and insightful?
Yes, I, too enjoy playing in highly competitive leagues, thank you for the compliment.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think he’ll do well, but I wouldn’t expect volume for about 2-3 weeks. Carter is going to get the bulk of the touches until Robinson knows the playbook, vibes with the team, etc.
I do think it was a quality add for the Jets in the wake of Hall’s knee injury.
The Frankman
Footballguy
The Frankman
Footballguy
@JFS171 thread rename? Thought I asked you earlier.
EDIT: @Joe Bryant gonna need a rename plz. I contacted jfs last week and so far nothing
EDIT: @Joe Bryant gonna need a rename plz. I contacted jfs last week and so far nothing
Done.
The Frankman
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Ultra geeked to have re-acquired this guy in my main league. We know he doesn't have long speed, but he looked good running the football Sunday. All aboard the J-Rob "Did Me Wrong" tour.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Really odd to me.Healthy Scratch today
Yeah but take away his short runs and he is AWESOMEI’m not trying to remove the longest run.
I’m pointing out that all the rest of his runs were sub-par, and aligned with his last 2 games prior.
Try to keep up.
The Frankman
Footballguy
https://twitter.com/mysportsupdate/status/1596905450070474753?s=46&t=1_ufGUCY8THpx2IcbjIXOA
What a joke. He's being sat down because the Jets don't want to give up a higher draft pick.
So you're in the hunt and you decide to bench a guy who could help you win to avoid giving up a higher draft pick?
Guess that's why they are the Jet's.
zamboni
Footballguy
He’s likely sitting because he hasn’t been effective and doesn’t play special teams. But feel free to go with that.
Sammy B
Footballguy
No. The "same ole Jets" would have stuck with him because they gave up a draft pick. He hasn't done much, bottom line. If the coaching staff think they have a guy that can add a little more then plug him in for a week, see how it goes. Knight did a great job today.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Who says that was the reason beside Frank?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
That tweet doesn’t say that and even if it’s his implication how the heck would he know?
It’s the difference of a 6th and 5th round pick. Do football fans really think that sways a team in contention?
zamboni
Footballguy
Don't think the squeaky heel is going to get the grease here. Doesn't seem to work on Saleh, as we've seen.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Man - complaining that you're pissed off after a big win is a great way to get even further into the coach's doghouse. Sounds very selfish.
zamboni
Footballguy
He obviously didn't follow Elijah Moore on Twitter when he was still on the Jags.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Jets are drafting well but why would a free agent want to play there
zamboni
Footballguy
Because Saleh is a mighty fine coach.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Why wouldn't they?
Not to mention that players follow the money 95% of the time.
Not sure the attitude is necessary. He hasn't been given a chance really. Especially when you consider he was new to the team / system.
That being said, the recent comments by Saleh sure would indicate Robinson isn't a good fit. In that case, it was a bad trade all around then.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
The Jets have benched the #2 overall pick in the draft to try to win....there is zero chance they care about a 6th to a 5th rounder if the guy could help them win....watching last weeks game they obviously lie the other RBs better. Stupid move complaining about it after the win...may want to confer with Elijah who is still digging out.
zamboni
Footballguy
Just defending my honor regarding “same old Jets” comments - no offense intended.
The Frankman
Footballguy
Reading the comments I don't get it, James Robinson didn't even complain...
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35149955/after-dnp-jets-rb-james-robinson-upset-wonders-how-fits
a) they shouldn't have traded for Robinson knowing this and giving up two picks for nothing.
b) if Robinson can't run in a zone-read system (Saleh mentioned style of running?)
Nothing magically changed with Robinson over the last 2 weeks. He's the same one-cut, tough runner coming back from a major injury that's sapped some of his ability.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35149955/after-dnp-jets-rb-james-robinson-upset-wonders-how-fits
Reporter asked him how he felt after being healthy scratched, what's he going to say, "I love it, I hope I get healthy scratched again"? Anyway, the Jets had Knight waiting in the wings since September but have been trying to get him carries for weeks. Knowing that:
a) they shouldn't have traded for Robinson knowing this and giving up two picks for nothing.
b) if Robinson can't run in a zone-read system (Saleh mentioned style of running?)
Nothing magically changed with Robinson over the last 2 weeks. He's the same one-cut, tough runner coming back from a major injury that's sapped some of his ability.
zamboni
Footballguy
If you peel back the onion a bit, the writer of that ESPN article is Rich Cimini, long-time beat writer for the team. He's been known to stir things up, so the article may come across a bit more damning than is actually the case.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
You're supposed to be upset when you get benched. I would be more alarmed (and I imagine so would coaches) if he wasn't. I mean I guess he could give the standard Bull Durham reply, but not sure how sitting out is supposed to help the ball club. Hard to make that argument in the 1st person with a straight face as a competitor.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don’t see anything wrong with his comments. It’s a sensational headline.
jtd13
Footballguy
I hate crap like that from writers/editors. His comment was fine but a lot of people will just run with the headline.
sheerterror
Footballguy
I'm not even sure Mike LaFleur is a big part of the team's plan in 2023.
eighsse2
Footballguy
What's the outlook here? I feel like he has a shot, another full year removed from his injury (I know it's a terrible RB injury), if we assume he does not stay with the Jets. Based on the rankings he's toast. Garbage. Thinking of selling him for a smallish return if possible, but also I just feel personally a lot more optimistic about him than most of the rankings. Which I guess tells me I should hang onto him. Any thoughts?
