RB Javonte Williams, DAL (2 Viewers)

[-jb-]

That is simply incredible. Really.....that is a wow. Williams is an uber talent...I was incredibly pissed off Denver jumped in front of my Dolphins....because they knew Miami was going to take him. 

Great value for you IMO. May end up being the best back/rookie pick in the 2021 crop.

not peeing in the Cheerios, just asking from a position of ignorance. How do we know he’s so good, given the division he played in? I haven’t watched tape or anything like that, nor do I believe I have the capability of discerning it against weaker competition. He obviously landed in a great spot. 

 

[Ilov80s]

I like it too, and agree that 50-50 split is worst case scenario. 

But even worse is guessing wrong & having the bad half of that committee, so taking both backs makes sense. It’s just an added cost.

I’m hopeful one emerges in preseason to make it more clear what we’re looking at. 

Worst case scenario is actually drafting both and the split is such that neither are viable or it's impossible to predict which one is the play any given week. Now you have burned 2 roster spots/draft picks. 

 

[Todem]

not peeing in the Cheerios, just asking from a position of ignorance. How do we know he’s so good, given the division he played in? I haven’t watched tape or anything like that, nor do I believe I have the capability of discerning it against weaker competition. He obviously landed in a great spot. 

I watched him play a ton....this kid is a real deal baller and will translate to the pro game just fine. You don’t have to play in the SEC to be a real prospect. So many great players from smaller schools and conferences all the time. Gotta do your own due diligence in scouting players yourself, watching tape/you tube videos these days lol.....I did a ton of research on him and all the rookie backs. He to me was the cream along with Harris and Etienne Jr. All three bring different elements. 

Williams to me is the most complete back in terms of 3 down, low to the ground, speed, hands. Harris is outstanding with his physical prowess...but his straight up style concerns me long term (they always do guys who run straight up) and Etienne Jr is just a missile in the open field and will be a great complimentary back to James Robinson. 

Javonte has star back written all over him IMO.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I watched him play a ton....this kid is a real deal baller and will translate to the pro game just fine. You don’t have to play in the SEC to be a real prospect. So many great players from smaller schools and conferences all the time. Gotta do your own due diligence in scouting players yourself, watching tape/you tube videos these days lol.....I did a ton of research on him and all the rookie backs. He to me was the cream along with Harris and Etienne Jr. All three bring different elements. 

Williams to me is the most complete back in terms of 3 down, low to the ground, speed, hands. Harris is outstanding with his physical prowess...but his straight up style concerns me long term (they always do guys who run straight up) and Etienne Jr is just a missile in the open field and will be a great complimentary back to James Robinson. 

Javonte has star back written all over him IMO.

Seems like mostly a power back, no? That’s at least an interesting aspect to his game given he’s 212 pounds. Breaking tackles VS the future gym teachers of America is not the same as being a power back in the SEC. Or the NFL, where every defender is bigger-faster-stronger than anyone you’ve ever played against,

No long speed, think he had two runs over 40 yards in three years. Doesn’t have explosive speed through the hole, lacks elusiveness, doesn’t fake out defenders, jump cut, e.g., make people miss. He generally takes what is there rather than cut back, lowers his pad level and runs through guys or drags them or stiff arms them. Seems best suited for inside zone running, doesn’t have the one-cut burst in his arsenal to pick a lane when going wide.

There’s a lot to like. Good all around game. If he shows good agility & vision he could be successful at the next level. Some mid-sized power backs succeed (Gore, Ingram), but quite a few college bullies end up being starters or RBBC who are nothing special. He’s not a can’t miss prospect, no matter how many superlatives you pile on him. He’s a guy who should become a starter this year or next. Opportunity/snaps translate into touches and he definitely s/b FF relevant this year. But it remains to be seen if he’s actually good.

I’m targeting him around Rnd 6/7, most likely as an RB3 with upside.

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm looking forward to seeing what he can do vs the Vikings. 

I have been listening to tidbits from joint practices but he hasn't come up yet that I have heard.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

That is simply incredible. Really.....that is a wow. Williams is an uber talent...I was incredibly pissed off Denver jumped in front of my Dolphins....because they knew Miami was going to take him. 

Great value for you IMO. May end up being the best back/rookie pick in the 2021 crop.

If he went to Miami he may have leap frogged Harris in rookie drafts.

 

[BobbyLayne]

In the Trey Sermon thread, some folks offered they’d probably take the cheaper option (Raheem Mostert) a few rounds later since their rankings/projections are pretty close. That led to a good discussion revolving around The Ambiguous Backfield study by JJ Zachariason (NumberFire, Late Round QB podcast.) Turns out the data points to a sort of wisdom of crowds result, that the higher ADP (player drafted first) is more likely to be a breakout league winner. You can check it out in the Sermon thread, read about it here, or give it a listen.

Yesterday my favorite FF YouTube channel had a discussion on a less extensive (but still interesting) study they did, specifically to see if it might give some clues on the Gordon/Williams backfield situation.

2nd Round RB Production, 2011-2020

29 players drafted in the 2nd round, 3 never got on the field bc if injury, so sample size = 26

looking at those 26 rookies & the incumbent RB on the roster:

• the veteran outproduced the 2nd round RB 8 times (30.8%)
  
• the rookie finished higher in FF 18 times (69.2%)
  

when the rookie received at least one touch in 10G (19/26)

• 14 times (73.7%) the rookie finished higher
  
• 5 veterans finished higher (2011 Reggie Bush over Daniel Thomas, 2012 3rd stringer Knowshon Moreno over Ronnie Hillman after McGahee injury, 2014 Frank Gore over Carlos Hyde, 2016 DeMarcus Murray over Derrick Henry, 2020 Darryl Henderson over Cam Akers)
  

the next one is insightful for the folks who have said I’ll just draft both

• only twice have both RBs been useful, each finishing inside the top 30. Both times it involved Gio Bernard - with Jeremy Hill In 2014, with Joe Mixon
  

Top 20 when the rookie received touches in at least 10G:

• Veteran RB - 4 times (21.1%)
  
• Rookie RB - 8 times (42.1%)
  

source (starts at 5:15)

 

[Alex P Keaton]

In the Trey Sermon thread, some folks offered they’d probably take the cheaper option (Raheem Mostert) a few rounds later since their rankings/projections are pretty close. That led to a good discussion revolving around The Ambiguous Backfield study by JJ Zachariason (NumberFire, Late Round QB podcast.) Turns out the data points to a sort of wisdom of crowds result, that the higher ADP (player drafted first) is more likely to be a breakout league winner. You can check it out in the Sermon thread, read about it here, or give it a listen.

Yesterday my favorite FF YouTube channel had a discussion on a less extensive (but still interesting) study they did, specifically to see if it might give some clues on the Gordon/Williams backfield situation.

2nd Round RB Production, 2011-2020

29 players drafted in the 2nd round, 3 never got on the field bc if injury, so sample size = 26

looking at those 26 rookies & the incumbent RB on the roster:

• the veteran outproduced the 2nd round RB 8 times (30.8%)
  
• the rookie finished higher in FF 18 times (69.2%)
  

when the rookie received at least one touch in 10G (19/26)

• 14 times (73.7%) the rookie finished higher
  
• 5 veterans finished higher (2011 Reggie Bush over Daniel Thomas, 2012 3rd stringer Knowshon Moreno over Ronnie Hillman after McGahee injury, 2014 Frank Gore over Carlos Hyde, 2016 DeMarcus Murray over Derrick Henry, 2020 Darryl Henderson over Cam Akers)
  

the next one is insightful for the folks who have said I’ll just draft both

• only twice have both RBs been useful, each finishing inside the top 30. Both times it involved Gio Bernard - with Jeremy Hill In 2014, with Joe Mixon
  

Top 20 when the rookie received touches in at least 10G:

• Veteran RB - 4 times (21.1%)
  
• Rookie RB - 8 times (42.1%)
  

source (starts at 5:15)

Interesting stuff.  It lost me early on with excluding rookies who get injured (from the sample) but keeping rookies (in the sample) whose veterans get injured.  Seems odd.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Interesting stuff.  It lost me early on with excluding rookies who get injured (from the sample) but keeping rookies (in the sample) whose veterans get injured.  Seems odd.

the 3 rookies never saw the field.

you think they should be included?

they didn't speak about veterans and injuries, not sure what your point is at all. 

 

[BobbyLayne]

the 3 rookies never saw the field.

you think they should be included?

they didn't speak about veterans and injuries, not sure what your point is at all. 

allow me to rephrase @Alex P Keaton

of course the 3 rookies wouldn't be included...we're trying to look at a data set to see if it can help us make a decision this year. there is no decision when one of the two players is hurt and won't play all year. that wouldn't really be relevant, right? 

sorry if I missed a larger point you were trying to make.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

allow me to rephrase @Alex P Keaton

of course the 3 rookies wouldn't be included...we're trying to look at a data set to see if it can help us make a decision this year. there is no decision when one of the two players is hurt and won't play all year. that wouldn't really be relevant, right? 

sorry if I missed a larger point you were trying to make.

It mentions a scenario where McGahee (veteran) got injured, but they kept that in the sample size.  Not sure why it wouldn’t have been excluded.

 

[BobbyLayne]

It mentions a scenario where McGahee (veteran) got injured, but they kept that in the sample size.  Not sure why it wouldn’t have been excluded.

Actually they didn't. That was my edit and I apologize for the distraction. I just threw that in there bc I remember how crazy that situation was. Also, bc nine years later I'm still mad at Broncos insider Cecil L for missing that call. (lol)

Remember, they're only looking at YE totals, not really examining preseason depth chart or expectations/adp - which might be more relevant to the decision tree we are facing rn.

 

[BobbyLayne]

It mentions a scenario where McGahee (veteran) got injured, but they kept that in the sample size.  Not sure why it wouldn’t have been excluded.

TBC - they used Moreno in the comparison. McGahee was NOT in the sample size.

McGahee was the starter Games 1-10 (13.7 PPG.) Moreno had been a healthy scratch 8 straight weeks, then was the starter down the stretch (14.1 PPG.) Both outperformed the 2nd rounder Hillman (3.8 PPG.)

 

[nittanylion]

Every time I open this Thread and get caught up, I shake my head and sigh...

I love Javonte, but, guys...Melvin Gordon isnt going anywhere, and he's not just some scrub, and he's not washed up, and he has a year less than his age on his tires, and he's approaching this Season differently than the comp with Lindsey in 2020. Melvin Gordon is more than capable of putting up just-below-elite stats, and everything coming out so far, while complimenting Williams, is saying in the same breath that Gordon is giving no quarter.

The shiny new toy stuff is getting a bit much. Melvin Gordon could very easily have an FF RB2 season upcoming. There's no reason, right now, based on l available info to say that he won't.

 

[kface]

Every time I open this Thread and get caught up, I shake my head and sigh...

I love Javonte, but, guys...Melvin Gordon isnt going anywhere, and he's not just some scrub, and he's not washed up, and he has a year less than his age on his tires, and he's approaching this Season differently than the comp with Lindsey in 2020. Melvin Gordon is more than capable of putting up just-below-elite stats, and everything coming out so far, while complimenting Williams, is saying in the same breath that Gordon is giving no quarter.

The shiny new toy stuff is getting a bit much. Melvin Gordon could very easily have an FF RB2 season upcoming. There's no reason, right now, based on l available info to say that he won't.

I like Gordon to get a lot of the tds as well which really limits williams

He went really high in our draft which i a modified keeper league.  

 

[Ilov80s]

If he went to Miami he may have leap frogged Harris in rookie drafts.

That would have been interesting. Basically the same situation as ETN to Jax. Unheralded RB coming of a really strong season. In PPR, Gaskins only scored 1 point less per game than Robinson. 

 

[greenmountaingoat]

I listened to both the Late Round QB pod and the Fantasy Footballers pods regarding this. 

I came away slightly unconvinced that Mike (FFballers) had appropriately accounted for how good MG is compared to other starters versus 2nd round picks he studied. I actually prefer (in this instance) JJ's approach which seems like a broader study who's higher altitude might actually paint a clearer picture.

Still, if you like swinging for the fences, he's a good (redraft) pick but my RB (PPR) board after the early to mid 4th and early 5th round round guys goes like this:

22. Chase Edmonds

23. Mike Davis

24. Myles Gaskin

25. Travis Etienne

26. Kareem Hunt (maybe in this tier, maybe below this tier, still undecided).

Tier Break- I'm drafting 11th and this is the end of where I would go for an RB at 5.11 or 6.02.

27. Javonte Williams. I doubt he'll fall to me at 7.11 and I guess that's fine. Would love to pick him up but alas, I'm not quite there with him. I would love targeting him early 7th round.

 

[Biabreakable]

In the Trey Sermon thread, some folks offered they’d probably take the cheaper option (Raheem Mostert) a few rounds later since their rankings/projections are pretty close. That led to a good discussion revolving around The Ambiguous Backfield study by JJ Zachariason (NumberFire, Late Round QB podcast.) Turns out the data points to a sort of wisdom of crowds result, that the higher ADP (player drafted first) is more likely to be a breakout league winner. You can check it out in the Sermon thread, read about it here, or give it a listen.

Yesterday my favorite FF YouTube channel had a discussion on a less extensive (but still interesting) study they did, specifically to see if it might give some clues on the Gordon/Williams backfield situation.

2nd Round RB Production, 2011-2020

29 players drafted in the 2nd round, 3 never got on the field bc if injury, so sample size = 26

looking at those 26 rookies & the incumbent RB on the roster:

• the veteran outproduced the 2nd round RB 8 times (30.8%)
  
• the rookie finished higher in FF 18 times (69.2%)
  

when the rookie received at least one touch in 10G (19/26)

• 14 times (73.7%) the rookie finished higher
  
• 5 veterans finished higher (2011 Reggie Bush over Daniel Thomas, 2012 3rd stringer Knowshon Moreno over Ronnie Hillman after McGahee injury, 2014 Frank Gore over Carlos Hyde, 2016 DeMarcus Murray over Derrick Henry, 2020 Darryl Henderson over Cam Akers)
  

the next one is insightful for the folks who have said I’ll just draft both

• only twice have both RBs been useful, each finishing inside the top 30. Both times it involved Gio Bernard - with Jeremy Hill In 2014, with Joe Mixon
  

Top 20 when the rookie received touches in at least 10G:

• Veteran RB - 4 times (21.1%)
  
• Rookie RB - 8 times (42.1%)
  

source (starts at 5:15)

I appreciate the post. Its intruiging.

At the same time I am skeptical of these narrow definitions and the selection bias that happens when people do this. The 2nd round is a pretty narrow sample.

I went into stathead and did a search of the criteria. Here are the RB who come up in the search:

1 2020 2 35 D'Andre Swift RB 21 DET 2020 2020 0 0 0 6 13 4 Georgia College Stats
2 2020 2 41 Jonathan Taylor RB 21 IND 2020 2020 0 0 1 10 15 13 Wisconsin College Stats
3 2020 2 52 Cam Akers RB 21 LAR 2020 2020 0 0 0 4 13 5 Florida St. College Stats
4 2020 2 55 J.K. Dobbins RB 21 BAL 2020 2020 0 0 0 7 15 1 Ohio St. College Stats
5 2020 2 62 AJ Dillon RB 22 GNB 2020 2020 0 0 0 2 11 0 Boston Col. College Stats
6 2019 2 53 Miles Sanders RB 22 PHI 2019 2020 0 0 2 14 28 22 Penn St. College Stats
7 2018 2 35 Nick Chubb RB 22 CLE 2018 2020 0 2 3 24 44 37 Georgia College Stats
8 2018 2 38 Ronald Jones II RB 21 TAM 2018 2020 0 0 2 15 39 22 USC College Stats
9 2018 2 43 Kerryon Johnson RB 21 DET 2018 2020 0 0 1 10 34 16 Auburn College Stats
10 2018 2 59 Derrius Guice RB 21 WAS 2019 2019 0 0 0 2 5 1 LSU College Stats
11 2017 2 41 Dalvin Cook RB 22 MIN 2017 2020 0 2 3 37 43 42 Florida St. College Stats
12 2017 2 48 Joe Mixon RB 21 CIN 2017 2020 0 0 2 27 50 41 Oklahoma College Stats
13 2016 2 45 Derrick Henry RB 22 TEN 2016 2020 1 2 3 44 78 47 Alabama College Stats
14 2015 2 36 T.J. Yeldon RB 21 JAX 2015 2020 0 0 2 20 60 30 Alabama College Stats
15 2015 2 54 Ameer Abdullah RB 22 DET 2015 2020 0 0 2 13 74 22 Nebraska College Stats
16 2014 2 54 Bishop Sankey RB 21 TEN 2014 2015 0 0 1 6 29 12 Washington College Stats
17 2014 2 55 Jeremy Hill RB 21 CIN 2014 2018 0 0 3 21 55 43 LSU College Stats
18 2014 2 57 Carlos Hyde RB 23 SFO 2014 2020 0 0 4 31 90 58 Ohio St. College Stats
19 2013 2 37 Giovani Bernard RB 21 CIN 2013 2020 0 0 2 41 115 30 North Carolina College Stats
20 2013 2 48 Le'Veon Bell RB 21 PIT 2013 2020 2 3 5 62 88 81 Michigan St. College Stats
21 2013 2 58 Montee Ball RB 22 DEN 2013 2014 0 0 0 7 21 3 Wisconsin College Stats
22 2013 2 61 Eddie Lacy RB 23 GNB 2013 2017 0 1 3 36 60 51 Alabama College Stats
23 2013 2 62 Christine Michael RB 22 SEA 2013 2018 0 0 1 9 38 9 Texas A&M College Stats
24 2012 2 50 Isaiah Pead RB 22 STL 2012 2016 0 0 0 1 30 1 Cincinnati College Stats
25 2012 2 61 LaMichael James RB 22 SFO 2012 2015 0 0 0 2 18 0 Oregon College Stats
26 2011 2 38 Ryan Williams RB 21 ARI 2012 2012 0 0 0 1 5 3 Virginia Tech College Stats
27 2011 2 56 Shane Vereen RB 22 NWE 2011 2017 0 0 1 25 79 9 California College Stats
28 2011 2 57 Mikel Leshoure RB 21 DET 2012 2013 0 0 1 5 17 14 Illinois College Stats
29 2011 2 62 Daniel Thomas RB 23 MIA 2011 2014 0 0 0 11 52 3 Kansas St. College Stats


While the results of that study may be accurate I think presenting the information as a percentage is somewhat misleading because in many cases the rookie may have scored the most fantasy points, but not by that much.

In the case of Swift Adrian Peterson still had more rushing attempts than Swift did his rookie year.

In Taylors case Marlon Mack got injured early. Not saying Taulor wouldnt have outperformed Mack anyways, and perhaps by a lot, but if you are going to exclude the rookies who got hurt, it seems to me the same treatment should be given to the incumbents.

Can Akers outscored Henderson by 20 points in standard scoring while Henderson outscored Akers in PPR by 29 points. Close enough that I would call this more of a tie.

I could keep going but perhaps you see where this is going.

As far as Williams vs Gordon perhaps one should narrow the criteria to how many times has a 2nd round rookie outperformed a veteran RB who was a 1st round pick? Because thats more what this situation is than just drawing from a ton of different teams and circumstances.

In the RB study I did I found that the rookie season is the least productive of a RBs first 6 seasons in the league on average and there are a lot of different reasons for that. One of the main ones being that the rookie often has to time share with other RBs already established on the roster. The mileage on this varies a ton because some of these RB have stronger competition than others.

A 2nd round pick is a pretty strong investment into a RB and teams usually are not doing that unless the RBs they have are not part of their long term plans. If they were the team would use that 2nd round pick on a different position most of the time.

In any case I would hate for people to read your post and come away from it thinking Williams has a 70% chance to outscore Gordon this season.

A better way to approach this might be to look at the teams draft history instead of looking at it league wide.

Since 2000 here are the RB Denver has selected in the first 4 rounds:

1 2018 3 71 Royce Freeman RB 22 2018 2020 0 0 0 9 46 8 Oregon College Stats
2 2016 4 136 Devontae Booker RB 24 2016 2020 0 0 0 15 77 7 Utah College Stats
3 2013 2 58 Montee Ball RB 22 2013 2014 0 0 0 7 21 3 Wisconsin College Stats
4 2012 3 67 Ronnie Hillman RB 20 2012 2016 0 0 1 17 56 15 San Diego St. College Stats
5 2009 1 12 Knowshon Moreno RB 22 2009 2014 0 0 3 33 63 45 Georgia College Stats
6 2005 3 101 Maurice Clarett RB 0 0 0 Ohio St.
7 2004 2 41 Tatum Bell RB 23 2004 2008 0 0 1 22 54 22 Oklahoma St. College Stats
8 2003 4 108 Quentin Griffin RB 22 2003 2004 0 0 0 6 16 5 Oklahoma College Stats
9 2002 2 51 Clinton Portis RB 21 2002 2010 0 2 7 72 113 108 Miami (FL) College Sta


I see a lot of miss here.

Freeman Ball and Hillman ended up being outperformed by UDFA RB Lindsey and CJ Anderson.

 

[zamboni]

Thinking dynasty/keeper here, one concern I have regarding JW is Fangio’s tenure as head coach. He certainly seems on the hot seat and if a new coach comes in next year, there’s no guarantee he won’t want his own guys (not unlike Meyer with Etienne/Robinson).

 

[BobbyLayne]

Thinking dynasty/keeper here, one concern I have regarding JW is Fangio’s tenure as head coach. He certainly seems on the hot seat and if a new coach comes in next year, there’s no guarantee he won’t want his own guys (not unlike Meyer with Etienne/Robinson).

If they take away roster control from the GM, sure. Don’t think that has been the operating model in Denver.

John Elway was bad at drafting running backs. Ronnie Hillman (3rd round/2012), Montee Ball (2nd/’13), Devontae Booker (4th/’16), De’Angelo Henderson (6th/’17), Royce Freeman (3rd/’18) and David Williams (7th/’18.)

2021 was George Patton’s first as GM.

 

[zamboni]

If they take away roster control from the GM, sure. Don’t think that has been the operating model in Denver.

John Elway was bad at drafting running backs. Ronnie Hillman (3rd round/2012), Montee Ball (2nd/’13), Devontae Booker (4th/’16), De’Angelo Henderson (6th/’17), Royce Freeman (3rd/’18) and David Williams (7th/’18.)

2021 was George Patton’s first as GM.

Fair enough - I guess it depends who the head coach would be.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Fair enough - I guess it depends who the head coach would be.

Yeah who knows, situations can change fast, but we generally can expect teams to stick with 2nd round talent longer than a UDFA.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

If they take away roster control from the GM, sure. Don’t think that has been the operating model in Denver.

John Elway was bad at drafting running backs. Ronnie Hillman (3rd round/2012), Montee Ball (2nd/’13), Devontae Booker (4th/’16), De’Angelo Henderson (6th/’17), Royce Freeman (3rd/’18) and David Williams (7th/’18.)

2021 was George Patton’s first as GM.

Very good point.   Denver fans should be thankful for this change.

Bobby L - I do appreciate you sharing the data despite my nitpicking of the methodology.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I appreciate the post. Its intruiging.

At the same time I am skeptical of these narrow definitions and the selection bias that happens when people do this. The 2nd round is a pretty narrow sample.

I went into stathead and did a search of the criteria. Here are the RB who come up in the search:

1 2020 2 35 D'Andre Swift RB 21 DET 2020 2020 0 0 0 6 13 4 Georgia College Stats
2 2020 2 41 Jonathan Taylor RB 21 IND 2020 2020 0 0 1 10 15 13 Wisconsin College Stats
3 2020 2 52 Cam Akers RB 21 LAR 2020 2020 0 0 0 4 13 5 Florida St. College Stats
4 2020 2 55 J.K. Dobbins RB 21 BAL 2020 2020 0 0 0 7 15 1 Ohio St. College Stats
5 2020 2 62 AJ Dillon RB 22 GNB 2020 2020 0 0 0 2 11 0 Boston Col. College Stats
6 2019 2 53 Miles Sanders RB 22 PHI 2019 2020 0 0 2 14 28 22 Penn St. College Stats
7 2018 2 35 Nick Chubb RB 22 CLE 2018 2020 0 2 3 24 44 37 Georgia College Stats
8 2018 2 38 Ronald Jones II RB 21 TAM 2018 2020 0 0 2 15 39 22 USC College Stats
9 2018 2 43 Kerryon Johnson RB 21 DET 2018 2020 0 0 1 10 34 16 Auburn College Stats
10 2018 2 59 Derrius Guice RB 21 WAS 2019 2019 0 0 0 2 5 1 LSU College Stats
11 2017 2 41 Dalvin Cook RB 22 MIN 2017 2020 0 2 3 37 43 42 Florida St. College Stats
12 2017 2 48 Joe Mixon RB 21 CIN 2017 2020 0 0 2 27 50 41 Oklahoma College Stats
13 2016 2 45 Derrick Henry RB 22 TEN 2016 2020 1 2 3 44 78 47 Alabama College Stats
14 2015 2 36 T.J. Yeldon RB 21 JAX 2015 2020 0 0 2 20 60 30 Alabama College Stats
15 2015 2 54 Ameer Abdullah RB 22 DET 2015 2020 0 0 2 13 74 22 Nebraska College Stats
16 2014 2 54 Bishop Sankey RB 21 TEN 2014 2015 0 0 1 6 29 12 Washington College Stats
17 2014 2 55 Jeremy Hill RB 21 CIN 2014 2018 0 0 3 21 55 43 LSU College Stats
18 2014 2 57 Carlos Hyde RB 23 SFO 2014 2020 0 0 4 31 90 58 Ohio St. College Stats
19 2013 2 37 Giovani Bernard RB 21 CIN 2013 2020 0 0 2 41 115 30 North Carolina College Stats
20 2013 2 48 Le'Veon Bell RB 21 PIT 2013 2020 2 3 5 62 88 81 Michigan St. College Stats
21 2013 2 58 Montee Ball RB 22 DEN 2013 2014 0 0 0 7 21 3 Wisconsin College Stats
22 2013 2 61 Eddie Lacy RB 23 GNB 2013 2017 0 1 3 36 60 51 Alabama College Stats
23 2013 2 62 Christine Michael RB 22 SEA 2013 2018 0 0 1 9 38 9 Texas A&M College Stats
24 2012 2 50 Isaiah Pead RB 22 STL 2012 2016 0 0 0 1 30 1 Cincinnati College Stats
25 2012 2 61 LaMichael James RB 22 SFO 2012 2015 0 0 0 2 18 0 Oregon College Stats
26 2011 2 38 Ryan Williams RB 21 ARI 2012 2012 0 0 0 1 5 3 Virginia Tech College Stats
27 2011 2 56 Shane Vereen RB 22 NWE 2011 2017 0 0 1 25 79 9 California College Stats
28 2011 2 57 Mikel Leshoure RB 21 DET 2012 2013 0 0 1 5 17 14 Illinois College Stats
29 2011 2 62 Daniel Thomas RB 23 MIA 2011 2014 0 0 0 11 52 3 Kansas St. College Stats


While the results of that study may be accurate I think presenting the information as a percentage is somewhat misleading because in many cases the rookie may have scored the most fantasy points, but not by that much.

In the case of Swift Adrian Peterson still had more rushing attempts than Swift did his rookie year.

In Taylors case Marlon Mack got injured early. Not saying Taulor wouldnt have outperformed Mack anyways, and perhaps by a lot, but if you are going to exclude the rookies who got hurt, it seems to me the same treatment should be given to the incumbents.

Can Akers outscored Henderson by 20 points in standard scoring while Henderson outscored Akers in PPR by 29 points. Close enough that I would call this more of a tie.

I could keep going but perhaps you see where this is going.

As far as Williams vs Gordon perhaps one should narrow the criteria to how many times has a 2nd round rookie outperformed a veteran RB who was a 1st round pick? Because thats more what this situation is than just drawing from a ton of different teams and circumstances.

In the RB study I did I found that the rookie season is the least productive of a RBs first 6 seasons in the league on average and there are a lot of different reasons for that. One of the main ones being that the rookie often has to time share with other RBs already established on the roster. The mileage on this varies a ton because some of these RB have stronger competition than others.

A 2nd round pick is a pretty strong investment into a RB and teams usually are not doing that unless the RBs they have are not part of their long term plans. If they were the team would use that 2nd round pick on a different position most of the time.

In any case I would hate for people to read your post and come away from it thinking Williams has a 70% chance to outscore Gordon this season.

A better way to approach this might be to look at the teams draft history instead of looking at it league wide.

Since 2000 here are the RB Denver has selected in the first 4 rounds:

1 2018 3 71 Royce Freeman RB 22 2018 2020 0 0 0 9 46 8 Oregon College Stats
2 2016 4 136 Devontae Booker RB 24 2016 2020 0 0 0 15 77 7 Utah College Stats
3 2013 2 58 Montee Ball RB 22 2013 2014 0 0 0 7 21 3 Wisconsin College Stats
4 2012 3 67 Ronnie Hillman RB 20 2012 2016 0 0 1 17 56 15 San Diego St. College Stats
5 2009 1 12 Knowshon Moreno RB 22 2009 2014 0 0 3 33 63 45 Georgia College Stats
6 2005 3 101 Maurice Clarett RB 0 0 0 Ohio St.
7 2004 2 41 Tatum Bell RB 23 2004 2008 0 0 1 22 54 22 Oklahoma St. College Stats
8 2003 4 108 Quentin Griffin RB 22 2003 2004 0 0 0 6 16 5 Oklahoma College Stats
9 2002 2 51 Clinton Portis RB 21 2002 2010 0 2 7 72 113 108 Miami (FL) College Sta


I see a lot of miss here.

Freeman Ball and Hillman ended up being outperformed by UDFA RB Lindsey and CJ Anderson.

re: the bolded items

• in each case a % is listed the numerator/denominator are included for clarity. that doesn’t strike me as misleading but it’s possible you and I process/interpret data differently.
  
• WRT Cam Akers outscoring Henderson, that might have been a misread on your part? Henderson had 35 more yards, 5 more receptions, and 3 more TDs. I think Cam was a smidge better on a PPG basis but I’m not sure where you came up with a 49 point swing between STD & PPR.
  

Anyway, a lot of times when we disagree or question one another it’s mostly due to how we process information differently. It’s all good man, I appreciate you and always look forward to reading your posts.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Data points us to probability. Probability aids us in making decisions which give us a slight edge, it helps us to choose paths that give us a more likely than not chance of success. It does not guarantee success.

Probability based on historical data should not be thought of as absolute, 100%, infallible, distilled down to a yes/no decision tree. That’s not remotely close to what we are trying to accomplish in studying data.

Finding exceptions or proving something could have a different outcome than the probability does not invalidate historical probability or the data that supports it.

 

[Biabreakable]

re: the bolded items

• in each case a % is listed the numerator/denominator are included for clarity. that doesn’t strike me as misleading but it’s possible you and I process/interpret data differently.
  

Nothing wrong with how you presented the data. The numerator/denominator is what you derive the percentage from. However if player A scores one point more than player B that is counted as a hit or as the rookie outscored the veteran even though the margin is so small. Presenting the percentage as a hit rate like this is what I think is easy to misinterpret. I don't think its your intent to be misleading, but the percentage results done this way can cause a lot of us to reach a conclusion that I don't think we should from this data.

• WRT Cam Akers outscoring Henderson, that might have been a misread on your part? Henderson had 35 more yards, 5 more receptions, and 3 more TDs. I think Cam was a smidge better on a PPG basis but I’m not sure where you came up with a 49 point swing between STD & PPR.
  

Anyway, a lot of times when we disagree or question one another it’s mostly due to how we process information differently. It’s all good man, I appreciate you and always look forward to reading your posts.

I was just looking at the points from MFL from some of my leagues. I might have had some playoff games in there though so my mistake. When I looked at it again just now Henderson outscored Akers in both scoring systems for regular season. Not sure if Akers was being counted as a rookie outperforming the vets or not. He didnt. However my main point here is that they scored close enough to the same amount of points that I don't think either of them should count. This is likely the case for several other players you are counting as hits.

 

[BobbyLayne]

However if player A scores one point more than player B that is counted as a hit or as the rookie outscored the veteran even though the margin is so small. Presenting the percentage as a hit rate like this is what I think is easy to misinterpret. I don't think its your intent to be misleading, but the percentage results done this way can cause a lot of us to reach a conclusion that I don't think we should from this data.

I agree.

The next logical step might be to look at a) how often were both players fantasy relevant (TOP 30) and b) how often were they league winner, difference makers - say top 20.

Which is what I did. So as to not be misleading.

 

[Biabreakable]

Data points us to probability. Probability aids us in making decisions which give us a slight edge, it helps us to choose paths that give us a more likely than not chance of success. It does not guarantee success.

Probability based on historical data should not be thought of as absolute, 100%, infallible, distilled down to a yes/no decision tree. That’s not remotely close to what we are trying to accomplish in studying data.

Finding exceptions or proving something could have a different outcome than the probability does not invalidate historical probability or the data that supports it.

::facepalm:

Yes I understand how probability works. I am a gamer. I am rolling dice constantly in games that I have been playing since I was 8 years old.

When you do this the result is that 70% of the rookies outscored the veterans on their team in the sample size. Most of us will say 70% ?? Thats great I like my better than 2 out of 3 chances for the rookie to outscore the veteran. 

But drawing this conclusion from that data is a very bad idea in my view for the reason I mentioned in previous post.

 

[BobbyLayne]

When you do this the result is that 70% of the rookies outscored the veterans on their team in the sample size. Most of us will say 70% ?? Thats great I like my better than 2 out of 3 chances for the rookie to outscore the veteran. 

But drawing this conclusion from that data is a very bad idea in my view for the reason I mentioned in previous post.

The rookies outscored the veterans 18 of 26 times. That’s neither a small sample size nor an insignificant difference.

8 times (>30%) veterans scored more. Seems like that has happened often enough to dig a little deeper. I appreciate the additional information you provided.

I listened to both the Late Round QB pod and the Fantasy Footballers pods regarding this. 

I came away slightly unconvinced that Mike (FFballers) had appropriately accounted for how good MG is compared to other starters versus 2nd round picks he studied. I actually prefer (in this instance) JJ's approach which seems like a broader study who's higher altitude might actually paint a clearer picture.

This was sort of my initial take as well. JJ had well over 100 players in his study (IIRC he was looking at four rounds of ADP, not NFL drafts.) 10 years, 26 players is not the same extrapolating say 6-8 from the last 3 or 4 years, but it is still narrow. Also, when Mike finished presenting, Jason immediately said “OK, that’s good stuff, but how many of those 2nd round RBs were coming to a team with a still productive veteran?”

If anyone wants to look into that...every RB drafted 1936-2021. I’m off to spend time with family, check in later.

 

[Biabreakable]

The rookies outscored the veterans 18 of 26 times. That’s neither a small sample size nor an insignificant difference.

8 times (>30%) veterans scored more. Seems like that has happened often enough to dig a little deeper. I appreciate the additional information you provided.

Yeah its not my intent to give you a hard time about this. I appreciate the info and thanks for sharing.

I do find myself becoming more skeptical of these types of things as time passes. I think each player and situation is unique.

Williams played very well against the Vikings and he has a nasty stiff arm. Also Cameron Danztler is too soft and poor tackler much like most of his team mates who were playing today.

 

[Jail]

Looked solid today.  Even harder to gauge than most preseason because Denver's ones were playing against Minn's 2nd stringers,  but he looked good.

 

[Tanner9919]

terrific start. BOTH denver QBs looked decent. maybe, just maybe, denver might be onto something here..

 

[massraider]

Javonte's carries yesterday

You only need to see one of them, cause they were all the same.  One cut, accelerate.  Runs like he's in a zone read. If Mike Shanahan had this guy in 93, he'd be RB1 overall.  

I don't think I saw any 'special' there, (didn't see much defense being played), but good acceleration, decisive, strong.  

 

[BobbyLayne]

Javonte's carries yesterday

You only need to see one of them, cause they were all the same.  One cut, accelerate.  Runs like he's in a zone read. If Mike Shanahan had this guy in 93, he'd be RB1 overall.  

I don't think I saw any 'special' there, (didn't see much defense being played), but good acceleration, decisive, strong.  

What more can you ask for other than continued good health and positive TC reports. Everything trending well. But honestly, did we learn anything this week? Everything they tried worked, you’d think it was the Chiefs in peak form out there. Since we know that’s unlikely to be what the 2021 Broncos will be, let’s see how the dress rehearsal game goes. 

Lot to like from what we’ve seen so far but not really the same game they’ll be playing in another month. Still in wait and see mode. Will be interesting to see what happens to his ADP over the next couple weeks.

 

[Faust]

NFL Beat Writers @32BeatWriters

Fangio on Williams: “ was anxious to see him because you can look at RBs all you want in practice and they can do good and get better, but ultimately the No. 1 job of a running back is to be able to make people miss or break tackles game...and obviously he didn’t disappoint.”

https://twitter.com/32beatwriters/status/1427299940443820034?s=21

 

[renesauz]

Love this guy, might be the best rookie RB.

But Melvin Gordon is NOT JAG. In redraft, I'm not taking either one of them before the 7th round. Maybe it would be a different story if we could reliably predict an offensive explosion in Denver, but I don't think we can.

All in for dynasty though.

 

[TripItUp]

I wonder what the chances are that Gordon is traded if the Broncos start slow?  He'd be a great fit for the Rams, for example.

 

[Deamon]

Love this guy, might be the best rookie RB.

But Melvin Gordon is NOT JAG. In redraft, I'm not taking either one of them before the 7th round. Maybe it would be a different story if we could reliably predict an offensive explosion in Denver, but I don't think we can.

All in for dynasty though.

Has he surpassed Etienne in Dynasty?

 

[ffmail4me]

Gordon would look good in Miami too...they certainly don't have much down there...

 

[moleculo]

I wonder what the chances are that Gordon is traded if the Broncos start slow?  He'd be a great fit for the Rams, for example.

Gordon would look good in Miami too...they certainly don't have much down there...

not likely.  Gordon is banged up with a groin pull at the moment and Boone is out 4-6 weeks with a quad pull.  Not saying the Dolphins or Rams can't make an offer the Broncos can't refuse but at the moment the RB room is a little bit thin.  This isn't a position where the Broncos have a ton of depth - not like WR.

 

[jabarony]

Has he surpassed Etienne in Dynasty?

I never had him behind Etienne.  

 

[JohnnyU]

I never had him behind Etienne.  

Neither did I as stated in the first page of this thread.  

 

[greenmountaingoat]

I listened to both the Late Round QB pod and the Fantasy Footballers pods regarding this. 

I came away slightly unconvinced that Mike (FFballers) had appropriately accounted for how good MG is compared to other starters versus 2nd round picks he studied. I actually prefer (in this instance) JJ's approach which seems like a broader study who's higher altitude might actually paint a clearer picture.

Still, if you like swinging for the fences, he's a good (redraft) pick but my RB (PPR) board after the early to mid 4th and early 5th round round guys goes like this:

22. Chase Edmonds

23. Mike Davis

24. Myles Gaskin

25. Travis Etienne

26. Kareem Hunt (maybe in this tier, maybe below this tier, still undecided).

Tier Break- I'm drafting 11th and this is the end of where I would go for an RB at 5.11 or 6.02.

27. Javonte Williams. I doubt he'll fall to me at 7.11 and I guess that's fine. Would love to pick him up but alas, I'm not quite there with him. I would love targeting him early 7th round.

This post is not aging well. Watching those 5 runs and with the MG groin, issue. And Gaskin, sheesh, frozen pond indeed. We shall see, Flores you sneaky little sonofagun. 

Swap Javonte in, drop Gaskin to the 11th round, Malcom Brown to the 9th?  Not sure on the exact order of those 5  remaining but if any of them are there at 5.11/6.02 , definitely worth a shot as an RB3.

 

[Ilov80s]

This post is not aging well. Watching those 5 runs and with the MG groin, issue. And Gaskin, sheesh, frozen pond indeed. We shall see, Flores you sneaky little sonofagun. 

Swap Javonte in, drop Gaskin to the 11th round, Malcom Brown to the 9th?  Not sure on the exact order of those 5  remaining but if any of them are there at 5.11/6.02 , definitely worth a shot as an RB3.

The Gordon injury is the real important point here. It gives Williams the opening he needed. 

 

[LawFitz]

How was his pass blocking?

 

[nittanylion]

The Gordon injury is the real important point here. It gives Williams the opening he needed. 

Certainly, if it amounts to anything. At this point, it still might be nothing. Waiting for more info.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

Play 1- Javonte run up middle. Looked great but hole was HUGE.

Play 2- Javonte Bounced to the right. Looked really great.

Play 3- Faked handoff to Javonte and pass to KJ Hamler- no pass blocking

Play 4- Freeman up the middle

Play 5- Javonte middle/right. Looked fine, not much there.

Play 6- Javonte TD (called back for holding) Looked really great, bouncing off guys and spinning into the endzone.

Play 7-Freeman screen play (33)
Play 8- Freeman in to block for a pass play. (turnover on downs)

2nd offensive series:

Play 1- Javonte short up the middle

Play 2- Javonte in- faked to Hamler Jet sweep

Play 3- Javonte in- left in to block on a pass play and did OK. Was looking around for a block to make but no one came in the gap he was covering. Defense offsides. 

Play 4- Javonte in, leaked out and ended up blocking for a QB run. Did fine.

I think this was his last play, I kept watching the rest of this series and it looked like Freeman and Crockett took over from here.

 

[tangfoot]

Play 5- Javonte middle/right. Looked fine, not much there.

Play 6- Williams TD (called back for holding) Looked really great, bouncing off guys and spinning into the endzone.

Are these two separate people, or did you just switch from first to last name in mid-stream?

 

[greenmountaingoat]

LOL switched. Yes, Same person.

 

[rockaction]

I noticed while watching the game on a stream. 

Golic noticed, too. 

You know the coaches noticed. 

Pass protection. 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1429814874075447308