Tried to tell you both.Probably sold him for pennies on the dollar and wants to feel good about it.Average? He looked to average over it's only nine touches in the preseason but he averages 4.6 yards per carry and 10 yards/reception. What's the problem?Yikes. Looks pretty average to me. These clips made me feel worse about him to be honest.
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RB Javonte Williams, DAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Zyphros
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Chaka
Footballguy
You think Payton will be gone before Javonte?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
That was mostly jest and sarcasm.
Chaka
Footballguy
I guess but, considering how poorly the entire run game is performing I wouldn't exactly rush to put it all on Javonte.Tried to tell you both.Probably sold him for pennies on the dollar and wants to feel good about it.Average? He looked to average over it's only nine touches in the preseason but he averages 4.6 yards per carry and 10 yards/reception. What's the problem?Yikes. Looks pretty average to me. These clips made me feel worse about him to be honest.
Of course any Javonte manager should probably have Tyler Badie on their short list of possible acquisitions.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
For all those complaining that Javonte is "slow" and "cooked," it might be worthwhile to consider he has faced an 8-man+ box 54.2% of his carries. Over 2x the amount faced by most prominent RB's in the league.
With Bo Nix breaking out in Week 3 and Sean Payton generally getting more aggressive with his play-calling, this is likely to change.
nextgenstats.nfl.com
With Bo Nix breaking out in Week 3 and Sean Payton generally getting more aggressive with his play-calling, this is likely to change.
NGS | NFL Next Gen Stats
NFL’s Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics.
nextgenstats.nfl.com
This is the kind of analysis I come here for. Awesome. Thank you.For all those complaining that Javonte is "slow" and "cooked," it might be worthwhile to consider he has faced an 8-man+ box 54.2% of his carries. Over 2x the amount faced by most prominent RB's in the league.
With Bo Nix breaking out in Week 3 and Sean Payton generally getting more aggressive with his play-calling, this is likely to change.
NGS | NFL Next Gen Stats
NFL’s Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics.
crushedspirit
Footballguy
Damn then what's Jaleel's excuse at 16.67%
Big Nate
Footballguy
<soyouaretellingmethereisachance.gif>For all those complaining that Javonte is "slow" and "cooked," it might be worthwhile to consider he has faced an 8-man+ box 54.2% of his carries. Over 2x the amount faced by most prominent RB's in the league.
With Bo Nix breaking out in Week 3 and Sean Payton generally getting more aggressive with his play-calling, this is likely to change.
NGS | NFL Next Gen Stats
NFL’s Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics.
You had me at hello
Stoneworker
Footballguy
He did have a sweet juke on his TD run, tho
crushedspirit
Footballguy
yup that was his best run of the season for sure
this is a VERY valid point. with a Rookie QB I'd be tempted as a Defensive Coordinator to stack the box and force the kid to beat you through the air. and up til now, (from the look of it) that is what has happened.For all those complaining that Javonte is "slow" and "cooked," it might be worthwhile to consider he has faced an 8-man+ box 54.2% of his carries. Over 2x the amount faced by most prominent RB's in the league.
With Bo Nix breaking out in Week 3 and Sean Payton generally getting more aggressive with his play-calling, this is likely to change.
NGS | NFL Next Gen Stats
NFL’s Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics.
I think he needs to do this at least one more time before this situation improves, but I saw yesterdays game, and he looked like the real deal.
it wont take long. but like I said, I think he needs at least one more good game before the pressure lets off and Defenses change up their scheme to try to defend him.
Saint
Footballguy
Thanks @Stoneworker for reminding me of the Next Gen Stats site. A few other tidbits for folks.
If Nix can put a few more games together, there may be hope, especially if JW starts going North and South.
- Rushing efficiency is calculated by taking the total distance a player traveled on rushing plays as a ball carrier according to Next Gen Stats (measured in yards) per rushing yards gained. The lower the number, the more of a North/South runner. Javonte is averaging 6.54. Bottom 6 in the entire league. So who else is around him? D'Andre Swift, Rachaad White, Jaleel McLaughlin. Top 3 in the league (Dobbins, Barkley, Gibson) are averaging around 2.8.
- Interpreting this... A lot of dancing and not hitting the hole. Looks like a lot of running for minimal game. This could be from pressure up the middle and he is bouncing it outside, or the play calling is having him rush on the outside edges. Needless, not a good stat.
- 8+ Defenders in the Box (8+D%). On every play, Next Gen Stats calculates how many defenders are stacked in the box at snap. Using that logic, DIB% calculates how often does a rusher see 8 or more defenders in the box against them. Javonte has more runs against 8 men in the box than ANY running back. 54.17% of the time as Stoneworker called out earlier. The next closest 4 RBs are Ray Davis (47.37%), Jordan Mason (38.81%), Derrick Henry (33.93%), and James Cook (29.27%).
- My Interpretation. Mason, Henry, and Cook from a rushing efficiency are averaging around 3.4. Almost half lower than Javonte. This means the issue for Javonte is he is being tentative at the hole and not powering forward. Since he is slowing down and bouncing out, the defenders are taking him down and his average is crappy.
- Avg Time Behind Line Of Scrimmage (TLOS). Next Gen Stats measures the amount of time a ball carrier spends (measured to the 10th of a second) before crossing the Line of Scrimmage. TLOS is the average time behind the LOS on all rushing plays where the player is the rusher. Javonte is averaging 2.97 TLOS. The worst RBs are Benson, McLaughlin, Charbonnet, and Pollard who are averaging around 3.10 TLOS. The best RBs are around 2.4 TLOS (KW3, Steele, Edwards, and Jamaal Williams)
- My interpretation. The best ones are typically <20% against 8 in the box. So they can hit the TLOS faster since they are not getting hit in the backfield. On average at the worst side, Javonte is more than DOUBLE the other backs against 8 in the box.
- Rush Yards over Expected per Attempt (RYOE/Att): Rushing yards over expected per attempt (RYOE/Att) looks at the number of yards per carry gained than expected. That might indicate a talented running back who can break and miss tackles or an efficient player. Javonte is the 3rd worst at -2.03 meaning he is averaging 2 yards LESS than what he should be everytime he touches the ball. Who's worse? Trey Benson and D'andre Swift.
- Week 1, no stats as Javonte had less than 10 carries.
- Week 2, 8+D% was 63.64%. More than 20% from the next RB. His Efficiency metric was 8.12 with a RYOE/Att at -3/27.
- Week 3, no stats with less than 10 attempts. Now Tyler Badie had 8 in the box as well when he broke the long run.
If Nix can put a few more games together, there may be hope, especially if JW starts going North and South.
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Big Nate
Footballguy
Major knee surgery, different coaches and scheme now. Lots has changed. He did have a solid rookie season. Surprised it has been so slow going this year.
He's only 24 so if it doesn't work out in DEN there is a chance he gets another shot somewhere.
Maybe DEN starts to get it going if Nix can keep playing better.
Is this a buy opportunity in dynasty or is he cooked? I have a hard time believing he is cooked.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Not looking promising. Major injuries have done this before to players. They come back and are a shell of what they were.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Phenomenal analysis, Saint.
Below is a video of a run from the Bucs game which is interesting to analyze. It is the fumble and begins at 3:09.
Honestly, other than obvious ball security at the end this appears to my non-expert eyes like a pretty decent 5-yd run making something out of nothing against good defense.
The play starts with a jumbo-type formation along the left side of the O-line...then Nix brings the WR in motion taking the CB with him. However, just as the CB voids his area you can clearly see S Jordan Whitehead completely sniffing out the play and get a running start up to the LOS to set the edge unblocked.
Once JW gets the ball he immediately chooses (correctly IMO) to go outside b/c the inside hole is plugged by #54 Lavonte David. So JW veers outside but Whitehead has totally read the play and is already there...so if JW keeps going horizontal then it's easily a TFL IMO since he has no momentum.
That's when JW stumbles slightly, shuffles his feet and just goes into power mode, lowering his head right into Whitehead's form tackle attempt...but ultimately ends up getting good YAC bouncing off w/ a spin move. But of course then fumble.
Perhaps an RB w/ uber-talented vision could have cut back to the middle hole once it opened up after LB David vacated it?
So that was a lot of running and time behind the LOS feeding the poor stats....but not really sure it was actually a bad run.
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Saint
Footballguy
@Stoneworker Thanks for the video. Definitely some hesitation from JW as he moves forward. I don't think he read the play correctly TBH. If you watch the left side of the line (TE and left tackle), they aren't blocking down to collapse the end, as you would see in an outside run. It looks to me like the hole was to the right of the center. Yes #54 was crashng down, but that was where he was supposed to go. The right guard kicks out the defender #80 to open up the lane while the man in motion and the outside receiver block down on the linebackers and CBs. If he didn't hesitate but drove forward, he would have probably had positive yardage and maybe broke into the secondary if he could break the tackle. Whitehead may have been able to catch him as it would have been close.
Not to be a debbie downer, but here's another viewpoint on the stacked box issues: https://www.abc4.com/sports/sports-...ng-the-same-mistake-with-rb-javonte-williams/. Now one can argue that Badie is doing better, but I thought this breakdown on the run lines and the O-line was fantastic. https://www.milehighreport.com/2024...-game-javonte-williams-vs-pittsburgh-steelers
I hope that Denver can fix their issues, but I think this is more than just a Javonte issue in my opinion.
Not to be a debbie downer, but here's another viewpoint on the stacked box issues: https://www.abc4.com/sports/sports-...ng-the-same-mistake-with-rb-javonte-williams/. Now one can argue that Badie is doing better, but I thought this breakdown on the run lines and the O-line was fantastic. https://www.milehighreport.com/2024...-game-javonte-williams-vs-pittsburgh-steelers
I hope that Denver can fix their issues, but I think this is more than just a Javonte issue in my opinion.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
I can definitely see your point that the play was designed to be run more inside given the blocking pattern. Hard to tell whether JW missed it vision-wise, didn't know the play design or consciously chose to take it outside after having seen L. David was initially plugging the hole. In any event, it was insightful to get your thoughts.
Great stuff from the milehighreport, in particular. Sean Payton seemed to confirm your conclusion after the PIT game that both the OL and Javonte were having issues.
I just finished looking at a play that (Williams) gained three yards, and it really should be a gain of seven yards. How are we blocking the backside of this? Do we need to clean that up? He misses a cut or two in the game. We need to make sure we get his eyes where they need to be.”
Javonte still looks good as a receiver. And given the significant and rapid progress last week in the DEN passing game, IMO the run game shouldn't have too much dirt thrown on it just yet.
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
Problem is, if Denver does get going is it Javonte, or Javonte and Jaleel, or Javonte and Jaleel and a little bit of Badie? In dynasty I think you hope for a fresh start somewhere, but in redraft I'm not sure what his path is to be relevant. And that's assuming that Nix can be consistent enough to make the defense ease up on the run. I hate to lose RB depth, but he's low man on the totem pole for me.
zamboni
Footballguy
Roschon Johnson for me - that’s where we are.
jtd13
Footballguy
"And here comes Estime from the top rope!"
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I'm out. Is it too soon? Maybe, but even though I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt earlier, I don't think any RB on this team is start-able. I sold him for what is most likely an early 3rd. Sometimes you just know, or think you know.
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Lansdowne
Footballguy
Estime is who I’d speculate on as the direct backup to Williams. Has ideal size to carry the load and, like Williams, is good at pass protection. That’s key when the QB is a rookie.
electric Ape
Footballguy
As disgusting as it feels to say this I’m actually looking at Javonte as a buy low target (mainly in dynasty).
I’ve watched most of his 2024 touches and I have no excuses for the guy, he has played really badly. He’s fumbled, he’s fallen down and tacked himself, he’s misread his blocking etc. If there is a way to F up a run, he has managed to do it. So I completely understand if someone sees that film and the shaky offense in Denver and wants zero part of this fellow.
Because absolutely nothing has gone right it feels like Javonte has played 20 bad games in a row this year but so far it’s only been 24 carries. Looking back over the years I can show you many good RBs looking absolutely terrible over a 24 carry sample, it’s a tiny amount of data. I realize that you have to factor in the injury and the fact that he looked bad all of last season. The main reason I’m not throwing dirt on Javonte just yet is that I watched all his preseason touches and to my eye he looked great, like rookie year Javonte. If you’re on the fence I highly recommend watching that tape and checking if you see what I see. Most owners are convinced Williams is dunzo and they want out for whatever they can get. As gross as it feels, I’m scooping up super cheap shares and hoping to turn a profit
I’ve watched most of his 2024 touches and I have no excuses for the guy, he has played really badly. He’s fumbled, he’s fallen down and tacked himself, he’s misread his blocking etc. If there is a way to F up a run, he has managed to do it. So I completely understand if someone sees that film and the shaky offense in Denver and wants zero part of this fellow.
Because absolutely nothing has gone right it feels like Javonte has played 20 bad games in a row this year but so far it’s only been 24 carries. Looking back over the years I can show you many good RBs looking absolutely terrible over a 24 carry sample, it’s a tiny amount of data. I realize that you have to factor in the injury and the fact that he looked bad all of last season. The main reason I’m not throwing dirt on Javonte just yet is that I watched all his preseason touches and to my eye he looked great, like rookie year Javonte. If you’re on the fence I highly recommend watching that tape and checking if you see what I see. Most owners are convinced Williams is dunzo and they want out for whatever they can get. As gross as it feels, I’m scooping up super cheap shares and hoping to turn a profit
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You might be right. Or he may just clog your roster.
Kiddnets
Footballguy
interesting take - unfortunately i am decimated at RB and have no choice but to roster and start him. Jets can be run on so he has a shot this week but im expecting them to stack the line and dare the kid to beat them so it will be a tall order. I do think he'll continue to get snaps for now
taylormeetstheismann
Footballguy
Some players need time.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Some players need legs
jm192
Footballguy
laughing emoji
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Javonte responded to the challenge of a multi-ligament knee injury by being ready for OTAs just seven months later
After this year's OTAs, he responded to Payton's challenge to lose weight by shedding 11 pounds in six weeks
Now someone is threatening his job. His track records says he'll respond to this challenge as well
After this year's OTAs, he responded to Payton's challenge to lose weight by shedding 11 pounds in six weeks
Now someone is threatening his job. His track records says he'll respond to this challenge as well
JohnnyU
Footballguy
None of that means anything if he is a shell of his former self physically. One thing that jumps out at me is he had a pre-injury ability to break tackles after contact. In fact, I believe he led the nation in that category, or was close to it, coming out of North Carolina. Williams has been an inefficient rusher again this season. He has yet to break an explosive run and has only 1.83 yards after contact per attempt (42nd out of 50 qualifying backs). I'm not seeing the yards after contact any longer and I thought his vision was better than he has shown. While vision isn't affected by his injury past, I'm now leaning in the direction he isn't the same RB they drafted. I could be wrong onbioudly.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
His YAC is low b/c he's not hitting the hole decisively and with momentum (if the hole even exists). Physically he's just fine.
JW 13-yd reception vs. PIT
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You can't say that "physically he's just fine" with certainty. Perhaps he doesn't have the same ability to break tackles post-injury. I don't know. Couple that with his current lack of vision and you have a bad RB. The Denver OL isn't helping, but I believe there is more to it than that.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
You sold him. I get it.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Actually I'm stuck with him in two dynasty leagues.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Good hedge
JohnnyU
Footballguy
wut?
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Hedging is an investment strategy. Your earlier post said you sold him. Now you're saying you've kept him elsewhere, which (evidently) I mistakenly thought was intentional as an insurance policy in case he turns things around. Whatever. Carry on.
"A hedge is an investment that is selected to reduce the potential for loss in other investments because its price tends to move in the opposite direction. This strategy works as a kind of insurance policy, offsetting any steep losses in other investments."
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You would be wrong. I'm not keeping him in two leagues because I want to. I put a message on the league board the first team to offer me a 2025 3rd round rookie pick, he's yours. No one has offered.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
That's fine. It explains your negativity, at least.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I'm only going on what I've observed and not ignoring it. Show me something Javante!!
Chaka
Footballguy
Couldn't your "positivity" be framed the same way?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
At least I explained some context to my negativity besides not hitting the hole with momentum.
