Tau837
Footballguy
Redraft PPR draft tomorrow...how high would you draft him? RB10? RB5?
Redraft PPR draft tomorrow...how high would you draft him? RB10? RB5?
Read my post above. I answered your question emphatically.ok... please somebody give me advice. I've talked with a couple of buddies already and still am not sure what to do... talk me off the ledge.
I have a 12 team ppr redraft TONIGHT!
I have the 3rd pick.
Long story short... people couldn't get together until tonight. It's the absolute dumbest thing I've ever been a part of in ff.
Anyway... I'm guessing DJ/Bell go #1 and #2.
If I draft Hunt... I get to use his points for this week.
Would you stick with the draft board and go Antonio Brown... or would you go Hunt?
I'm 100% sure Hunt won't last past the top 10 with the virtual guarantee of a week 1 win and how good he looked (with the % of plays he was on the field for) against a top NFL team.
If he had reading comprehension he'd be posting that in the correct forum.Read my post above. I answered your question emphatically.
I'm never a fan of the "take away X Play and he wasn't that good" line. (ETA, I realize you aren't saying that - I agree with your response.)Take that play away. Say it was an incomplete pass. He still went for 148 rushing yards on 17 attempts (8.7 YPC) and a TD, and caught 4 of 5 targets for 20 yards with a TD.
but this guy was being drafted in the 3rd or 4th round without the "eye test". It's not like some nobody blowing up. It would be ridiculous to draft someone like Hogan in the 1st round if he would have posted a 8/180/3 TD line yesterday.I love Hunt and am very happy about the 40+ points he scored last week but I think we do need to do realistic about this. We do see players every couple years have insane games and fizzle out over the grind of the season.
I think the game was last night. That said, my opponent certainly did a weeks worth of drinking afterwards.I love Hunt and am very happy about the 40+ points he scored last week but I think we do need to do realistic about this. We do see players every couple years have insane games and fizzle out over the grind of the season.
but this guy was being drafted in the 3rd or 4th round without the "eye test". It's not like some nobody blowing up. It would be ridiculous to draft someone like Hogan in the 1st round if he would have posted a 8/180/3 TD line yesterday.
Everyone loved Hunt's situation coming into the year, but he wasn't as highly touted as someone like Zeke because he's coming from a MAC school.
I normally agree 100%. When trying to set a value on a player you can't Cherry pick the stats you want to use.I'm never a fan of the "take away X Play and he wasn't that good" line. (ETA, I realize you aren't saying that - I agree with your response.)
he scored a 78 yard TD, slipped a tackle to do so, and ran as perfect a route as he could possibly run doing it.
Alex Smith was sharp enough to notice the coverage, and take advantage of it.
It was a damn near perfect play all around. There's no taking it away because it happened.
He also busted a 56 yard run around the outside. No taking that play away either.
Funny how the "take X play away" guys never say, "add the plays called back for incidental holding" - Hunt would have had another 25 Ru yards without holds that we're away from the play. So it all kinda evens out.
Its like saying "Brady would have had an awesome game if he had 3 TDs". Well he didn't, so he didn't.
its also true that NFL defenses have mismatches and broken plays in every single game. So blaming the Pats D instead of crediting Smith/Hunt seems silly.
Sure but then I'll probably trade anyone except dj for Evans.asked question of Hunt's dynasty value, after this one game explosion, in the main Dynasty Value thread (https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/748837-dynasty-value-discussion-thread/?do=findComment&comment=20406206)
but might as well ask it here as well.
If you're ok at RB in dynasty, to you sell Hunt for a top WR like Evans and cash in on this unexpected, early peak in value of Hunt?
That's a reasonable approach. But it's also reasonable to suggest that for redraft leagues we now know he's capable of such a play. Not every player is - some get caught from behind. Some fail to make the catch as smoothly. Some get tackled instead of slipping it.I normally agree 100%. When trying to set a value on a player you can't Cherry pick the stats you want to use.
On a guy who has one NFL game on his resume, you have to dissect it a little more. I think we can all agree he's not putting up 200+ all purpose yards and three tds every week. But I see no reason he can't be a 15-20 point a week player.
He is the unquestioned starter. The o-line looks really good. And he catches passes well. Shouldn't have a problem averaging 15 a week.
Im not ready to claim him as a top 5 dynasty RB yet because we don't know how much of his success is situation related as of now. Danny Woodhead was top 5 two years ago because he was in a great situation. Put him on a Jeff fisher team and he's probably worthless. I don't blame anyone for selling high or holding right now. Need more info
This, you give me a proven top 20 guy overall that is still fairly young (he will be a top 20 guy for the next 3 years) and I am selling.Hold in redraft. Sell in dynasty if someone think he's an elite player and will pay accordingly.
So, you taking the over or the under on 1300 total yards and 10 TDs?I love Hunt and am very happy about the 40+ points he scored last week but I think we do need to do realistic about this. We do see players every couple years have insane games and fizzle out over the grind of the season.
Over. Have to at this point,zoonation said:So, you taking the over or the under on 1300 total yards and 10 TDs?
The kid needs to get injured not to be an RB1 at this point.
msudaisy26 said:This, you give me a proven top 20 guy overall that is still fairly young (he will be a top 20 guy for the next 3 years) and I am selling.
That's what I keep wondering.If you have that guy, why would you be selling him?
What? He's totally unproven and RB lifespan is so much shorter than WR. Evans is almost certainly going to be elite for another 10 years. If Hunt is elite for 5 years he will be in a rare group. If you can get an Evans or Amari or a guy like that then you're crazy to hold Hunt.That's what I keep wondering.
Barring injury I don't see how he can't be top 5. And the way he runs and evades direct hits, hopefully that won't be the case.
I wouldn't deal him for ODB or Evans, or any RB not named Bell or Johnson at this point. Maybe Zeke too if I'm sure Zeke plays 16.
Well he only needs 1050 and 7 now, so the over seems pretty easy to me. That would be like expecting 1125 and 8 in 16 games, a pretty reasonable expectation a week ago.zoonation said:So, you taking the over or the under on 1300 total yards and 10 TDs?
The kid needs to get injured not to be an RB1 at this point.
First, sorry - I was thinking redraft since that's what I play now.What? He's totally unproven and RB lifespan is so much shorter than WR. Evans is almost certainly going to be elite for another 10 years. If Hunt is elite for 5 years he will be in a rare group. If you can get an Evans or Amari or a guy like that then you're crazy to hold Hunt.
Matter of fact I do, thanks!They are replaying the game on NFLN right now for anyone that wants to catch it.
So as an owner, isn't "selling high" also overreacting to 1 game?Redraft I understand, but dynasty I would have to sell for an elite talent. People are overreacting to one game.
Because it's highly doubtful he'll do as well.So as an owner, isn't "selling high" also overreacting to 1 game?
Why not take another game or 2 to see what's what? Another 100+ 5 reception 1 TD game and his value is even higher. Seems like trading him is more of a knee-jerk reaction than holding him.
Seen too many flash in the pans. He could be the next Doug Martin or Priest Holmes. I just know in my dynasty career if I sold guys that flashed this kind of talent right after they peaked I would have won a lot more money.If you have that guy, why would you be selling him?
Odds seem better on him doing well. And importantly, I didn't say "as well" - I very specifically said "100+ 5 reception game". Meaning 100+ all purpose yards and 5 catches. Which IMO is incredibly likely.Because it's highly doubtful he'll do as well.
His value will be lower and if you sell it would not be high.
God I loved having Priest Holmes in his prime. No player I've ever had was more of a lock for a touchdown, 100+ or both. Usually both. Even without the yards, he always got TDs. Well, seemingly always.Seen too many flash in the pans. He could be the next Doug Martin or Priest Holmes. I just know in my dynasty career if I sold guys that flashed this kind of talent right after they peaked I would have won a lot more money.
No, I don't.But you don't know that. And odds seem better on him doing well.
I didn't say "as well" - I very specifically said "100+ 5 reception game". Meaning 100+ all purpose yards and 5 catches. Which IMO is incredibly likely.
Also seeing if he's again the bellcow - 80+% of the RB touches.
If yes and yes, his value goes even higher because those suggesting "flash in the pan" will become believers.
I don't know he's a hall of famer.No, I don't.
Unlike you who knows he's a hall of famer.
Dude you obviously don't understand the concept of selling high.I don't know he's a hall of famer.
I actually said "Why not take another game or 2 to see what's what?" You quoted it and bolded it and everything, so I fail to see how you're so confused.
Of course I understand the concept of sell high.Dude you obviously don't understand the concept of selling high.
I'm done responding to you.
Because when he has 6 fantasy points next game, you won't be able to trade him for anything near what you can get right now. Another fumble or two isn't going to be good either.I don't know he's a hall of famer.
I actually said "Why not take another game or 2 to see what's what?" That's a wait & see approach. You quoted it and bolded it and everything, so I fail to see how you're so confused.
That was his 1st fumble since high school, so...yeah.Because when he has 6 fantasy points next game, you won't be able to trade him for anything near what you can get right now. Another fumble or two isn't going to be good either.
No, I don't.
Unlike you who knows he's a hall of famer.
I thought you understood selling high? Apparently not.That was his 1st fumble since high school, so...yeah.
How do you know he's going to have 6 points next game? Seems like an unfounded prediction for next week. Evidence would seem to hint at a slightly better performance than that.
Baffled by this comment.I thought you understood selling high? Apparently not.
Yep. I agree completely - I didn't think there was a right and wrong to it, just philosophy. Apparently other dude took his ball and went home though as he was "done responding to me".Do you think your argument is so weak that you have to resort to this kind of tactic?
There are no sure things. Who says the guy you acquire in your selling-high trade doesn't suffer a career changing injury the following week, or loses his starting QB, or some other scenario that negatively affects his value? It's all about risk and perception. Right now you both have a decent chance of being right.
+1Personally I like letting the Hunt end play out and seeing if he doesn't become Reid's next fixture as a top FF RB. Doesn't make me wrong, just means I'm more willing to roll the dice based upon what I've seen so far.
That's a really interesting offer. Adams is a nice get, and Hunt.I have a guy in my league that has been trying to buy Mixon or Cook off me all offseason. He just offered me this. I already know what I declining, but I want to see what you guys think since there is a lot of Hunt love
I give Gurley and Mixon
I get Hunt, 2018 1st (borderline playoffs team), Davante Adams and Perriman.
His point was you lose the opportunity to sell high very quickly. Waiting won't do much to increase his value, but it can burst that bubble very, very quickly.Baffled by this comment.
He put up a monster game. My position has been, "hey, why not wait and see if he has 100+ APY and some receptions next week to really stablize his value and maybe get even more?"
Is that not also "selling high"? I think it's a more patient approach to doing so is all. We all play differently. The difference is that I didn't personally insult you as you just did me.
Good luck to you.
You wouldn't trade him for anyone, but you also wouldn't give up a modest package for him either?That's a really interesting offer. Adams is a nice get, and Hunt.
But I probably decline. Mixon is the man, if not this year, next for sure (I think he'll be starting by Halloween). And Gurley should (should) get better as the Rams get better.
So yeah - that's a hold for me. You're not getting Hunt's week 1 numbers, and you're giving up 2 potential top 5 feature backs for 1. The future late 1st is meh. If it was 1.01 that's maybe a different story.
That said I don't know your lineup or how desperate for a WR2 you are. lol
Stated perfectlyHis point was you lose the opportunity to sell high very quickly. Waiting won't do much to increase his value, but it can burst that bubble very, very quickly.
I took over the team last year and went full rebuild. Sad part is I still can't unload Aaron Rodgers, Golden Tate, or Gurley. I already have a couple of 2018 1sts and hoping to get Barkley.That's a really interesting offer. Adams is a nice get, and Hunt.
But I probably decline. Mixon is the man, if not this year, next for sure (I think he'll be starting by Halloween). And Gurley should (should) get better as the Rams get better.
So yeah - that's a hold for me. You're not getting Hunt's week 1 numbers, and you're giving up 2 potential top 5 feature backs for 1.
That said I don't know your lineup or how desperate for a WR2 you are. lol
Yes, I caught that. And my position was that you may be able to sell even higher. All good - it's just fantasy football. Cheers.His point was you lose the opportunity to sell high very quickly. Waiting won't do much to increase his value, but it can burst that bubble very, very quickly.