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RB Le'Veon Bell, FA (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I've got Bell in most of my leagues, so obviously I'm rooting for the guy, and it was great to see him get so much work and all the goaline touches, but is anyone else concerned with the below average YPC against one of the league's worst run defenses?
Obviously, any workhorse back has value, but are the lion's share of the rushes and goaline touches going to be THAT valuable on a team that has been falling behind and abandoning the run quickly and had few goaline opportunities? I could see lots of 14-40 games with no touchdowns when those goaline plays don't come around.
Obviously, any workhorse back has value, but are the lion's share of the rushes and goaline touches going to be THAT valuable on a team that has been falling behind and abandoning the run quickly and had few goaline opportunities? I could see lots of 14-40 games with no touchdowns when those goaline plays don't come around.
See post #849 (I can't get it to link directly to htat post).
The Hank
Footballguy
Difference with Bell compared to other RB's is that he'll be on field all 3 downs, and will get receptions if/when the Steelers fall behind.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
20 touches and 19 touches, and just got past the #1 run defense in the league. Also has bye out of way.
Between 10 and 15 at RB.
I see 8 RBs I know I would trade him for without hesitation.
Rove!
Footballguy
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
roflmao?
Can you list your 22+ or so higher rated RBs you have right now?
tdhartis
Footballguy
I think that's a little overzealous and I personally value him somewhere in the range of RB 15-20, but let me play Devil's advocate. It's a small sample size, but in my PPR league he has a total of 33pts (16.5/game). If you use that as his average over the games he was unable to play, he would project to a total of 82.5pts over 6 weeks (5 weeks play, 1 bye). That would place him at RB #13 in my league, and of the RBs ahead of him in this hypothetical scenario, none of them have had their byes. If you give L. Bell an additional game at his 2-game average to equal their game total, then he would have 99pts--moving up to RB #10 in my league. Of course this projection has a serious flaw of sample size, but it may suggest he has the potential to be considered in the top 10-15 by someone bullish on him. It's not crazy.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
yeah, that's perfectly reasonable. Roves rofl wasnt.
And you said PPR... I primarily play in non-pprs.
tdhartis
Footballguy
Yeah, I agree with you. He definitely has 10-15 range possibility, especially if the projection is to be believed, and it isn't "rofl" crazy. There aren't many workhorse backs in the league, and the only guys I wouldn't even have to think twice about trading for L. Bell would be: (1) Charles, (2) AP, (3) Shady, (4) Lynch, (5) Foster, (6) Forte, (7) Bush, (8) Rice, (9) Gore, and (10) Morenoyeah, that's perfectly reasonable. Roves rofl wasnt.
And you said PPR... I primarily play in non-pprs.
There may be a few more guys not listed I would consider in PPR over him given the opportunity, but the ones above are the only ones I can see myself hitting the accept button without thinking much about it.
I'm sorry, but 10-15 is extremely optimistic. Maybe not laughable, but close. The problem is that the Steelers' line can't run block. That's not going away. Plus, we still don't know what kind of talent Bell is. It's nice that he's getting a few catches, but you need to be special to be productive behind this line as a runner and he's probably not.roflmao?
Can you list your 22+ or so higher rated RBs you have right now?
So let's take into account likely productivity... say 4.0 ypc and 7.0 ypr? As for workload, he's probably going to get about 15 rushes and 2 receptions a game, right? A 16 game pace of 240/32.
Guys that are head and shoulders above him in no particular order (12):
Foster
Peterson
Charles
McCoy
Lynch
Moreno
Bush
Forte
Gore
Lacy
Morris
Martin
One tier above Bell (5):
Bernard
Sproles
Spiller
FJax
MJD
Guys that are struggling and/or injured but have similar if not better upside (6):
SJax
McFadden
Ridley
Chris Johnson
Trent Richardson
Murray
Same or just a step below:
Lamar Miller
DeAngelo
Stacy
Powell
Mathews
Woodhead
BJGE
Ellington
Sadly, I think Stacy is probably the best comparison to Bell. I know Pit fans and fantasy owners would like to get excited about Bell, but if you're realistic then you've got to admit their situations are similar. Both will get about 16-20 touches a week behind a bad offensive line. Solid, but unspectacular. Best suited as a flex. Neither is going to sniff RB10-15 numbers.
I was strictly speaking about the rest of the season, not long-term. I didn't give it a lot of thought, but I do expect MJD to have a larger workload than Bell. It's not a huge disparity between the two. Do you honestly think Bell will outproduce him?
Rove!
Footballguy
Goreroflmao?
Can you list your 22+ or so higher rated RBs you have right now?
Lynch
Sproles
ADP
Lacy
RBush
Forte
Morrris
DeMarco
McCoy
Moreno
Charles
Bernard
CJ0K
TRich
Foster
FJax
Ridley
DeAngelo
McFadden
Ray Rice
Doug Martin
in PPR: Woodhead, J Bell
Bell is value because he is a 3-down back, not because he plays on an offensive juggernaut, or because he is the best RB on the planet. I'd have him in the mid-high RB2 range.Gore-AGREEDroflmao?
Can you list your 22+ or so higher rated RBs you have right now?
Lynch-AGREED
Sproles-He's averaged 10.3 touches/game, with a high of 14
ADP-AGREED
Lacy-AGREED
RBush-AGREED
Forte-AGREED
Morrris-Doesn't get many receptions; agree in non-PPR, it's closer in PPR though
DeMarco-Agreed, if he's okay with his knee
McCoy-AGREED
Moreno-AGREED
Charles-AGREED
Bernard-AGREED, although the presence of BJGE makes it closer
CJ0K-DISAGREE
TRich-DISAGREE
Foster-AGREED
FJax-DISAGREE; I WOULD HAVE THESE TWO IN THE SAME TIER, BUT BELL HAS NO COMPETITION, WHILE FJAX HAS SPILLER
Ridley-DISAGREE, WHEN VEREEN COMES BACK (FF PLAYOFFS) RIDLEY WILL HAVE TOO MUCH COMPETITION
DeAngelo-DISAGREE, DOESN'T SCORE, HAS TOLBERT TAKING TOUCHES ALREADY, & WHEN STEWART COMES BACK (FF PLAYOFFS) DWILL WILL HAVE TOO MUCH COMPETITION
McFadden-DISAGREE; HE HAS A MUCH LONGER HISTORY OF INJURY & I FIND IT HARD TO RELY ON HIM
Ray Rice-AGREED
Doug Martin-AGREED
in PPR: Woodhead, J Bell-I LIKE BOTH AS A RB3/FLEX PLAY, BUT IF I NEED A RB2 TO RELY ON FOR CONSISTENT TOUCHES, I WANT THE GUY WHO IS A 3-DOWN BACK
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I checked his schedule and it looks pretty tough the rest of the way.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
It just feels like a mess in Pittsburgh this year, which is weird. - Great RB, lousy situation.
Rove!
Footballguy
touches don't necessarily translate when the team stinks, the O-line stinks and there isn't a to of scoring opps.Bell is value because he is a 3-down back, not because he plays on an offensive juggernaut, or because he is the best RB on the planet. I'd have him in the mid-high RB2 range.Gore-AGREEDroflmao?
Can you list your 22+ or so higher rated RBs you have right now?
Lynch-AGREED
Sproles-He's averaged 10.3 touches/game, with a high of 14
ADP-AGREED
Lacy-AGREED
RBush-AGREED
Forte-AGREED
Morrris-Doesn't get many receptions; agree in non-PPR, it's closer in PPR though
DeMarco-Agreed, if he's okay with his knee
McCoy-AGREED
Moreno-AGREED
Charles-AGREED
Bernard-AGREED, although the presence of BJGE makes it closer
CJ0K-DISAGREE
TRich-DISAGREE
Foster-AGREED
FJax-DISAGREE; I WOULD HAVE THESE TWO IN THE SAME TIER, BUT BELL HAS NO COMPETITION, WHILE FJAX HAS SPILLER
Ridley-DISAGREE, WHEN VEREEN COMES BACK (FF PLAYOFFS) RIDLEY WILL HAVE TOO MUCH COMPETITION
DeAngelo-DISAGREE, DOESN'T SCORE, HAS TOLBERT TAKING TOUCHES ALREADY, & WHEN STEWART COMES BACK (FF PLAYOFFS) DWILL WILL HAVE TOO MUCH COMPETITION
McFadden-DISAGREE; HE HAS A MUCH LONGER HISTORY OF INJURY & I FIND IT HARD TO RELY ON HIM
Ray Rice-AGREED
Doug Martin-AGREED
in PPR: Woodhead, J Bell-I LIKE BOTH AS A RB3/FLEX PLAY, BUT IF I NEED A RB2 TO RELY ON FOR CONSISTENT TOUCHES, I WANT THE GUY WHO IS A 3-DOWN BACK
Sproles will score more points on 10.3 touches than Bell would on 20.6...
Weird that you used red for agree and green for disagree.Bell is value because he is a 3-down back, not because he plays on an offensive juggernaut, or because he is the best RB on the planet. I'd have him in the mid-high RB2 range.Gore-AGREEDroflmao?
Can you list your 22+ or so higher rated RBs you have right now?
Lynch-AGREED
Sproles-He's averaged 10.3 touches/game, with a high of 14
ADP-AGREED
Lacy-AGREED
RBush-AGREED
Forte-AGREED
Morrris-Doesn't get many receptions; agree in non-PPR, it's closer in PPR though
DeMarco-Agreed, if he's okay with his knee
McCoy-AGREED
Moreno-AGREED
Charles-AGREED
Bernard-AGREED, although the presence of BJGE makes it closer
CJ0K-DISAGREE
TRich-DISAGREE
Foster-AGREED
FJax-DISAGREE; I WOULD HAVE THESE TWO IN THE SAME TIER, BUT BELL HAS NO COMPETITION, WHILE FJAX HAS SPILLER
Ridley-DISAGREE, WHEN VEREEN COMES BACK (FF PLAYOFFS) RIDLEY WILL HAVE TOO MUCH COMPETITION
DeAngelo-DISAGREE, DOESN'T SCORE, HAS TOLBERT TAKING TOUCHES ALREADY, & WHEN STEWART COMES BACK (FF PLAYOFFS) DWILL WILL HAVE TOO MUCH COMPETITION
McFadden-DISAGREE; HE HAS A MUCH LONGER HISTORY OF INJURY & I FIND IT HARD TO RELY ON HIM
Ray Rice-AGREED
Doug Martin-AGREED
in PPR: Woodhead, J Bell-I LIKE BOTH AS A RB3/FLEX PLAY, BUT IF I NEED A RB2 TO RELY ON FOR CONSISTENT TOUCHES, I WANT THE GUY WHO IS A 3-DOWN BACK
You agreed with 14 players, and you disagreed on Sproles, who will get maybe 7 less touches, but is still averaging 80 yards per game. Morris who is averaging 15 touches and over 5 ypc. Chris Johnson who is getting at least as many touches as Bell and is more talented. Trent Richardson who is in at least as good of a situation as Bell with similar touches. Ridley who will get as many touches as Bell on a better offense and with more ypc. McFadden who will easily outscore Bell while healthy.
I think Fred Jackson and Spiller both get about as many touches as Bell (they are both averaging 16), so they have to be considered very similar values for the rest of the year. MJD will get more touches than Bell. Is Steven Jackson dead to everyone? He could be an RB1 when he returns. I still think Stacy = Bell.
I just don't see the case to be made for a high RB2 valuation. 10-15 is a joke. 15-20 is a stretch. 20-25 is probable. 25-30 is not unrealistic if he can't find the end zone often.
Not worried about Felix or Dwyer one bit
Except in the two games he's played, he's gotten 16 carries each game (plus 4 and 3 receptions).
In the two games he's played, he's gotten 73% of the carries.
Yeah, don't know why I did that. By the time I realized it, I didn't feel like changing the colors.Weird that you used red for agree and green for disagree.Bell is value because he is a 3-down back, not because he plays on an offensive juggernaut, or because he is the best RB on the planet. I'd have him in the mid-high RB2 range.Gore-AGREEDroflmao?
Can you list your 22+ or so higher rated RBs you have right now?
Lynch-AGREED
Sproles-He's averaged 10.3 touches/game, with a high of 14
ADP-AGREED
Lacy-AGREED
RBush-AGREED
Forte-AGREED
Morrris-Doesn't get many receptions; agree in non-PPR, it's closer in PPR though
DeMarco-Agreed, if he's okay with his knee
McCoy-AGREED
Moreno-AGREED
Charles-AGREED
Bernard-AGREED, although the presence of BJGE makes it closer
CJ0K-DISAGREE
TRich-DISAGREE
Foster-AGREED
FJax-DISAGREE; I WOULD HAVE THESE TWO IN THE SAME TIER, BUT BELL HAS NO COMPETITION, WHILE FJAX HAS SPILLER
Ridley-DISAGREE, WHEN VEREEN COMES BACK (FF PLAYOFFS) RIDLEY WILL HAVE TOO MUCH COMPETITION
DeAngelo-DISAGREE, DOESN'T SCORE, HAS TOLBERT TAKING TOUCHES ALREADY, & WHEN STEWART COMES BACK (FF PLAYOFFS) DWILL WILL HAVE TOO MUCH COMPETITION
McFadden-DISAGREE; HE HAS A MUCH LONGER HISTORY OF INJURY & I FIND IT HARD TO RELY ON HIM
Ray Rice-AGREED
Doug Martin-AGREED
in PPR: Woodhead, J Bell-I LIKE BOTH AS A RB3/FLEX PLAY, BUT IF I NEED A RB2 TO RELY ON FOR CONSISTENT TOUCHES, I WANT THE GUY WHO IS A 3-DOWN BACK
You agreed with 14 players, and you disagreed on Sproles, who will get maybe 7 less touches, but is still averaging 80 yards per game. Morris who is averaging 15 touches and over 5 ypc. Chris Johnson who is getting at least as many touches as Bell and is more talented. Trent Richardson who is in at least as good of a situation as Bell with similar touches. Ridley who will get as many touches as Bell on a better offense and with more ypc. McFadden who will easily outscore Bell while healthy.
I think Fred Jackson and Spiller both get about as many touches as Bell (they are both averaging 16), so they have to be considered very similar values for the rest of the year. MJD will get more touches than Bell. Is Steven Jackson dead to everyone? He could be an RB1 when he returns. I still think Stacy = Bell.
I just don't see the case to be made for a high RB2 valuation. 10-15 is a joke. 15-20 is a stretch. 20-25 is probable. 25-30 is not unrealistic if he can't find the end zone often.
Saying Sproles averages 80 yards/game is a little mis-leading. Technically, it's true, but he's only hit 80 yard/game in 2 of the 6 Saints games. The fact is that he's going to get 10-15 touches, but if he's getting 10-15 touches, and Bell is getting 18-20 touches, I'm going to feel more comfortable with the guy who gets more touches.
With Morris, I originally dis-agreed, (that's why it's green), but I changed it to agreeing with you, unless you are talking about PPR, in which case, I'd prefer Bell.
With regards to Chris Johnson, he may have been more talented, but he's not CJ2K anymore. Based on what he's done this year, and what I expect him to do the rest of the year, I'd prefer Bell. It doesn't matter what Johnson was able to do in the past, it's what he is doing & will do this year.
Trent Richardson is getting pulled in passing situations, is averaging 3.1 YPC, and doesn't look impressive to me. I may be wrong on this, but based on what I've seen from him over the past 20 NFL games, I'm not impressive, & I'd prefer Bell.
Why do you think Ridley will get as many touches as Bell? He's played 5 games this year, and he has 19 touches in 1. Bell has played 2 games and has 19 touches in both. When Vereen comes back, Ridley is going to have to share touches with him. Plus, we have seen how quick BB is to bench Ridley for fumbles. I prefer Bell.
McFadden should outscore Bell IF healthy. But, IF my aunt had nuts, she'd be my uncle. McFadden doesn't have a history which makes me feel safe expecting him to stay healthy.
10-15 isn't a joke. It's the best case scenario, IMO, but it's not a joke. Add Morris into the equation, and you have 15 RBs who I feel will be ahead of Bell. Al that needs to happen is one of them to stumble, and he could jump into that top 15. With regards to the other guys you mentioned, they could finish ahead of Bell, but I don't think so. Just because you don't agree with someone's opinion doesn't make it a "joke."
Okay, I was on sportsline & I saw this:
http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasyfootball/story/24122161/week-8-fantasy-trade-value-chart
According to that article, the writer would consider "buying low" on Bell to get RGIII or Julius Thomas straight up, but giving Fitzgerald for him would be "a steep price to pay for Bell?"
I have Bell and don't intend to trade him, but if I needed a QB, I'd be very happy to get RGIII back. Same with Thomas, if I needed a TE. No way would I want to trade him for Fitzgerald, if I needed a WR.
Are these legitimately "fair" trades, or is this article as off as I think it is?
http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasyfootball/story/24122161/week-8-fantasy-trade-value-chart
According to that article, the writer would consider "buying low" on Bell to get RGIII or Julius Thomas straight up, but giving Fitzgerald for him would be "a steep price to pay for Bell?"
I have Bell and don't intend to trade him, but if I needed a QB, I'd be very happy to get RGIII back. Same with Thomas, if I needed a TE. No way would I want to trade him for Fitzgerald, if I needed a WR.
Are these legitimately "fair" trades, or is this article as off as I think it is?
tdhartis
Footballguy
Agreed. I wouldn't accept Fitz for him at this point, but I don't see either RG3 or Julius Thomas as surefire "fair" trades, but it would depend on your roster and needs. I think you're right in that Fitz seems the one to jump out at you though. I view him as a WR3 in any format right now.
Gustavo Fring
Footballguy
Someone offered me L Bell for Mike Williams straight up. I snapped called. :fleeced:
If you could get RGIII or Julius Thomas, I would trade Bell in a heartbeat. I would not do Fitz for Bell.
Doubtingthomas
Footballguy
Guy looked realy good Sunday against the Ravens. Reassuring to a dynasty owner.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Over at FFToday, their free Rest of the Way Rankings....
1 Jamaal Charles KC 10
2 Marshawn Lynch SEA 12
3 Adrian Peterson MIN 5
4 LeSean McCoy PHI 12
Tier 2
5 Matt Forte CHI 8
6 Reggie Bush DET 9
7 Frank Gore SF 9
8 Eddie Lacy GB 4
9 Knowshon Moreno DEN 9
10 Le'Veon Bell PIT 5
11 Alfred Morris WAS 5
12 Giovani Bernard CIN 12
Tier 3
13 Ray Rice BAL 8
14 Arian Foster HOU 8
15 Fred Jackson BUF 12
16 Darren Sproles NO 7
17 Chris Johnson TEN 8
18 DeMarco Murray DAL 11
19 Trent Richardson IND 8
20 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 9
1 Jamaal Charles KC 10
2 Marshawn Lynch SEA 12
3 Adrian Peterson MIN 5
4 LeSean McCoy PHI 12
Tier 2
5 Matt Forte CHI 8
6 Reggie Bush DET 9
7 Frank Gore SF 9
8 Eddie Lacy GB 4
9 Knowshon Moreno DEN 9
10 Le'Veon Bell PIT 5
11 Alfred Morris WAS 5
12 Giovani Bernard CIN 12
Tier 3
13 Ray Rice BAL 8
14 Arian Foster HOU 8
15 Fred Jackson BUF 12
16 Darren Sproles NO 7
17 Chris Johnson TEN 8
18 DeMarco Murray DAL 11
19 Trent Richardson IND 8
20 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC 9
UFGator0587
Footballguy
Averaging only 3 targets per game since he came back? Any hope that he becomes more involved in the passing game moving forward?
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Would love to hear more opinions on this.
Whats his trade value going forward for people?
Okay, I hate to throw an ACF question in here, but I was just offered Alfred Morris for Bell. Keeper league, but Morris has some value as a keeper (not as much as Bell). I'm torn; I like Bell, but I think this may be an offer I can't refuse.
But the fact is that Morris still seems to be the guy in DC, and he is running for a good average. They've been down big in a few games (1 and 2, especially), which takes him out of the gameplan. If Griffin is doing well, that gives them a better chance of staying in games, which would allow him to accumulate more carries.
jeeb
Footballguy
Skins fan here. In a keeper league, this is a no brainer for several reasons. Keep Bell. Even in redraft, Bell is the pick.
1) I don't see Morris remaining a Skin beyond his rookie contract as the team won't pay big money to a RB when Shanahan can find someone off the street and plug him in.
2) Morris is completely one-dimensonial as he is useless in the passing game. Bell appears to extremely valuable in the passing game.
3) Roy Helu is the most talented RB in Washington. He is about as good of a runner (less power, more explosion) and a great receiver (14 rec/100 yd game vs. SF 2 seasons ago).
4) Washington's defense is HORRIBLE with probably the worst secondary in football and it is going to take several seasons to correct it. Which means, more shootouts = Helu in the backfield.
5) I would personally never trade a 3-down RB (which there is only a handful of in the NFL) for a 2-down RB that is already losing GL carries.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I own both in one league. I would never trade Bell for Morris. Morris is nice to have, but Bell is a gem. Sure it needs a little polishing, particularly after missing so much of preseason and the early part of the regular season, but a gem none the less.
JustinHawkins
Footballguy
You guys are way off on Morris. He's a far better back than Helu. Helu is a great change of pace back, but he's not built to carry the load and move the pile like Morris.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Is Bell a must start in a PPR League this week against Oak? He is high up there on a lot of rankings - Either him or Julius Thomas has to ride the pine... Great problem to have, but I don't want him on the bench if he goes over 100 and has 2 tds.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
TheLurkerBelow
Footballguy
Although Pittsburgh stinks to high heaven this season, I'm very encouraged by the running I've seen from Bell. He's got great balance, keeping his feet when getting knocked around on the inside and outside, he's catching pretty well, and they're feeding him the ball as the bellcow. It's the best I could have hoped for this season on this poor a team. For redraft this year he looks to be a good RB2 or Flex play for the second half of the season.
fred_1_15301
Footballguy
I wonder if there is still anyone not convinced this guy is the real deal.
blake
Footballguy
After how last night ended, I'm not doubting the guy's talent, just his immediate prognosis.
