Aznflyer14
Footballguy
I was just thinking that! You took the words right out my mouth! Pretty amazing to know that he suffered devastating knee injury in the same left knee (first in college and then last year).
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RB Nick Chubb, HOU (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m not sure where I’m at with Chubb at this point. Definitely an encouraging sign, and I wouldn’t dream of questioning his work ethic.
I’d caution that ligament surgery is more about burst & cutting than strength.
Glad he’s staying fit, and strong - but I’d rather see a cone drill or some other elusiveness training.
Like when ETN was coming back, that video of all the RBs juking & cutting? That’s when I was certain his foot wasn’t going to be an issue.
Imma hold off on conclusions, but yeah, it’s impressive for sure, for what it is.
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100%. The cutting is one of the last things to return on the surgically repaired knee.
Strength, Straight line (top speed) comes back pretty quick, but burst/acceleration and cutting is hit or miss at best in the first 12 months.
you can recover from an ACL to play in less than a year, but its usually closer to 18 months (sometimes 24 months) until everything else returns to normal.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Confidence in the repaired knee is also a big factor. The timeline for that is a little less precise.
Before seeing him squat all that impressive weight I thought he was an ok gamble somewhere in the RB45 neighborhood on hope he can come back when it's playoff/money winning time.
After seeing that I think he's an ok gamble in the RB45 neighborhood on the hope he can come back when it's playoff/money winning time.
After seeing that I think he's an ok gamble in the RB45 neighborhood on the hope he can come back when it's playoff/money winning time.
jtd13
Footballguy
I wonder if that is shorter for someone who has been through it before.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Don’t see why that would be. Every injury is a little different, even if it’s the same injury.
If anything I’d think it would be tougher since he’s older now.
But it’s possible I guess.
jtd13
Footballguy
I just meant the mental part may be easier if you've been through it. Physically definitely he would heal better at 21 than 28
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yeah hard to say.
On the one hand he's been through it before, so maybe he understands the process better psychologically.
On the other hand, having been through surgeries myself, I know that trusting one's ligaments isn't necessarily something you can overcome - it's an instinctive feeling that when you step wrong, or apply pressure wrong, the joint will fail. It's like that falling feeling you get when you rock back too far in a chair - even if you know you aren't going to fall, your brain is screaming at you that you're gonna fall.
My knee is 100% now, but it took me 6 months after it was 100% to have full confidence to the point where going up stairs felt natural.
So yeah - honestly don't know if it will be easier psychologically. His injury was far more significant than mine, and cutting ability is more stressful to the joint. It'll be interesting to see how it goes down, but I'm tempering expectations until I see him moving laterally on it.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
"cutting with tremendous agility"
Nick Chubb sprints full speed after practice
No football stuff yet, just on the side agility drills with Nyheim Hines, who is himself coming back from a torn ACL.
Last I heard there was no timeline for Chubb's return, but there was video of him squatting 540 pounds last week.
Low expectations but so far the reports are encouraging.
Nick Chubb sprints full speed after practice
No football stuff yet, just on the side agility drills with Nyheim Hines, who is himself coming back from a torn ACL.
Last I heard there was no timeline for Chubb's return, but there was video of him squatting 540 pounds last week.
Low expectations but so far the reports are encouraging.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
2 cuts in this one that total ~ 0.85 seconds
you have to look closely to find #27, one is early and one is late
think the Chargers PR team was going for ole subliminal stimuli advertising trick here
FYI - you won’t be able to get those 81 seconds of your life back
FarFromHome
Footballguy
I wanna buy into Chubb. I love the dude. I think he is the best pure old school rb in the league. I wanna believe. Even with modern medicine and his freak physical nature his injury was as bad as it gets. I can close my eyes and see his leg break from that hit. Color me surprised if he gives any meaningful fantasy production. Sit the year and get healthy buddy.
-OZ-
Footballguy
although I’d take Henry, I think they’re 1a and 1b. (And that’s me really not liking the browns).The NFL is better when he plays, just hope he can do it 90-100% of his old self without aggravating the injury.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Would you like to see video of him walking through the tunnel in a tracksuit?
He's just been working out on the side, mostly with Nyheim Hines (doing an ACL recovery himself.) He's been doing some agility drills but as of a few days ago still no timetable. MK Cabot (beat reporter) thinks he'll be activated sometime during camp, not sure if that was plucked out of the air. He'll be ready when he's ready I guess.
Required two surgeries and I read something a while back he's basically rehabbing four injuries. May never be the same player. Obviously I am hoping for the best, he has been such a great running back. I guess you could say no news is good news, no setbacks, he is still strong like bull and can run in a straight line. Report from 16 days ago said he was "cutting with tremendous agility" and crickets since.
In redraft I am probably not in on him as it's full PPR, but then again if he's still sitting there past pick 90 I would probably say what-the-heck as my RB3/RB4. If you have him in dynasty, hope you were able to enjoy the 5 years he was elite.
Really want to believe he's built different à la ADP, but no way of knowing, gotta make that call on faith.
pinequick
Footballguy
If both Chubb and J. Ford are sitting there when you are getting ready to pull the trigger... who are you taking?
(I see Ford as the lower-risk, lower-ceiling option).
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
No interest in Ford in redraft. I hardly ever go for the kind of player you are describing. As I'm adding bench players I'm only thinking about upside. Do they have a path to being FF relevant in December? I'd rather take big swings on high variance.
That often means getting off to a sluggish start. Last year I started 2-5, finished 9-1 and league champs. The 3 titles before that:
- started 3-3 and then won the last 9
- started 2-4, finished 8-2
- started 1-2, won 6x, lost 2x, won 5x
- and...three years ago I started 1-4, finished 10-1 but then lost in the title game.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I had a similar 2022. Started 1-6, finished 6-1 (the loss being by less than 1 point), got the last playoff spot, won 2 playoff games and lost in the title game. My draft was pretty bad but my team was carried by Jefferson and Lawrence in the second half, with some assistance from terrible performances by my opponents.
I did have a season where I took Brady AND Gordon when they were suspended. That didn't work out well. So I try to at least fill out a starting lineup (minus K and D) of people who will contribute early before taking fliers on people who I think will contribute late.
When Chubb went down in week 2 last year, Ford took over and was RB17 from week 3 on. That's not bench material; that's your RB2. With a current ADP of around RB40, how is the possibility of RB17 not upside? His only path to being fantasy relevant in December is Chubb not coming back from major injury. If you say D'Onta Foreman, let me just say Kareem Hunt was there last year and had 150 touches himself, so if Chubb doesn't make it back, there are plenty of touches for Ford. Most FF SB's take place during NFL week 17, and what did Ford do during week 17 last year? 121 yards and 2 TD's.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
2x elite games, 2x RB1, 6x RB4 - 24th in crank score (consistency model)
The elite games were only 22 & 26
Neither consistent nor good enough to win a week
IIRC he graded out poorly with a pass catcher model I worked on after the season
Good volume, poor efficiency, decent in pass pro
The tape shows a guy who is OK, he’s not special
I make a lot of calls like this every
year; it’s personal preference, it’s not prrsonal
I get calls wrong all the time, but I must be getting enough right (or I’m extraordinarily lucky)
The other factor for wrt Ford is I expect his role to diminish over the back half
Give Chubb a 4-game ramp, by the end of which (potentially - nobody knows) Ford is unusable, or a what-the-heck-Flex hoping he gets targets
I can see the pro case for Ford, if you think drafting guys that will perform to their ADP is the path to success, knock yourself out
I just prefer to take lots of cuts in the hopes of finding 1-2 players that massively outperform their ADP
to add to this, Chubb didnt just tear his ACL there was other damage too. that will lengthen the recovery. with an ACL its typically 18 months give or take a couple months. with this Id say 24 months give or take 3 months.
Gatorade
Footballguy
At their current ADP, I would easily take Ford
Ford seems like a steal at current ADP.
jm192
Footballguy
My thinking on guys like Ford and Hubbard has changed over the last few years.
I nearly always find myself starting waiver wire RB's at some point during the season. Once a starting RB goes down and the backup has a clear path to starting--that guy becomes the waiver priority. So in the double digit rounds, if I see a guy with a path to starting several weeks--I'm happy to take him at the right cost. Ford and Hubbard are both at the right cost.
Chubb's knee injury was a complex one, not just an ACL tear. He won't be back to start the season. He could miss two months. Once he comes back, I think they'll ease him in. But I don't envision a situation where they are giving him 20+ carries during the regular season. They want him healthy and ready for the playoffs. I think Ford probably sees 40-50% of the touches.
Chubb could easily have a set back and extend Ford's window.
As far as he wasn't amazing last week--even if he's not amazing week in and week out--he's an 11th or 12th round pick. The cost is pretty reasonable for a guy that may start half the season and then split carries for the 2nd half.
They added Jeudy. They brought in Dorsey as OC. I think the offense could be quite a bit more productive, and Ford's production could be better.
zoonation
Footballguy
he's gold in 2 flex leagues IMO.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
+1200 (12-1)
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
RB39 and ADP 116, expect him to start moving up the boards
I also think Watson and Cooper, maybe Njoku need a slight bump up
They paid Watson about $250M, if I owned the team I would all but insist the game plan feature a lot of passing plays
Don't try and recreate what you were doing w/Chubb and just insert Jerome Ford, that would not be a good game plan if I were Ken Dorsey.
Thats aid, i would now add Ford to a growing list of starting RBs that nobody seems to want.
Zack Moss from the bengals, White from the Raiders, Hubbard from Carolina, these guys are likely "Half-A-Backs" and set for 50% of the load, can they handle it?
Can they be productive?
I also think Watson and Cooper, maybe Njoku need a slight bump up
They paid Watson about $250M, if I owned the team I would all but insist the game plan feature a lot of passing plays
Don't try and recreate what you were doing w/Chubb and just insert Jerome Ford, that would not be a good game plan if I were Ken Dorsey.
Thats aid, i would now add Ford to a growing list of starting RBs that nobody seems to want.
Zack Moss from the bengals, White from the Raiders, Hubbard from Carolina, these guys are likely "Half-A-Backs" and set for 50% of the load, can they handle it?
Can they be productive?
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It worked for them last year...
BIRDGANG52
Footballguy
Yeah, Chubb to me is a wasted draft pick this year. Don't be tempted to draft him. First it starts with IR which requires 4-games, then it'll be 3-5 more weeks until he's actually ready to be in a game. He might see a handful of carries, but he might not be himself. Definitely on a pitch count, so count him out for being anything relevant until Week 10 - 12 at the earliest. Oh, now his knee is swelling and he's a GTD.
You don't win like that in fantasy. On paper it sounds great, Chubb comes back just in time for playoffs and you ride RB1 production to a championship. I mean, maybe, but everytime I try something like this I always end up staring at him on my IR as I watch the players I could have drafted win games for other teams. I'm not saying that his ADP of 127 is going to tank your team completely, but once you hit bye weeks and other guys getting hurt, you'd wish you had:
Gus Edwards (ADP 122), Josh Palmer (ADP 123), Khalil Shakir (ADP 133), Chuba Hubbard (ADP 135) Rico Dowdle (ADP 138), Trey Benson (ADP 145), Jaleel McLaughlin (ADP 147), JK Dobbins (ADP 157), etc instead. At least those guys will be scoring you points for the first 8 - 10 weeks of the season. Meanwhile, you'll end up holding onto Chubb for a playoff push that doesn't happen because somebody else hit a home run on a late round sleeper RB who isn't recovering from an ACL, MCL, and meniscus tears.
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RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Yeah I can't imagine he'll be all that useful in fantasy this year. If Watson turns out to truly be cooked and the Browns are struggling... do they try to rush Chubb back? Too many ways this could break that lead to Chubb being a wasted fantasy asset this year IMO. On the other hand Ford seems highly underrated (maybe less so after this Chubb news).
I drafted Chubb in my FBG Bowl league Saturday night. I went into the draft hoping to land him. I have realistic expectations for him after mid-season. Any FF production prior to that is a bonus. I feel his upside is too great not to draft him if you can afford to. I can move on from him if need be at some point, so I think it's a little far fetched to claim he's a wasted pick.
When I do redraft and in the mid-rounds, I usually ask myself "Is this player going to help me win a title?" There are lots of decent players that will be available in the middle rounds but at some point I'm going to look at Nick Chubb and say "you know what, he could win me the title" and I'd draft him. Not sure how late that would be, and probably someone else will grab him before me, but I would not call him undraftable or a wasted pick.
Put another way, if I'm looking at drafting my WR5 in the eleventh round and that guy's almost certainly going to be sitting on my bench in weeks 1 - 8 (excepting bye weeks) then that's about where I'm drafting Chubb, knowing that he is on the bench for the first half of the year.
Put another way, if I'm looking at drafting my WR5 in the eleventh round and that guy's almost certainly going to be sitting on my bench in weeks 1 - 8 (excepting bye weeks) then that's about where I'm drafting Chubb, knowing that he is on the bench for the first half of the year.
BIRDGANG52
Footballguy
If he was going 2 rounds later (ADP 151), I'd agree with both of you guys, but there's still good talent left at ADP 127. If anything, it's the last of the players that will turn out to be fringe starters. There's no guarantee he's even going to comeback as the same player. Assuming you're in a league that starts 8 players (some combination of QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, FLEX, FLEX, TE), you're currently drafting Nick Chubb in the 10th round, so he's the 10th best player on your team. At this point, you have drafted only 1 bench guy. You'll be covering your bye weeks with inferior talent and a rash of bad injuries wipes you out completely. Your QB tears his ACL Week 4, you could have had a backup but you took Nick Chubb. Your star WR tweaked his knee in Week 4 and your other WR has a Week 5 bye week, now you're stuck starting Darnell Mooney and Adam Theilen or something silly like that. What wasn't a problem is suddenly a disaster and all you can do is stare at Nick Chubb on the IR spot. I'll take Khalil Shakir, Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle, Mike Williams, Jerry Jeudy, Trey Benson, JK Dobbins, etc in my 2nd bench spot over Nick Chubb personally. History tells us one of those guys is going to be very good and you're not going to be relying on a successful ACL, MCL, and meniscus recovery at age 28 with chance of reinjury.
I can just draft Khalil Shakir and have the Bills #1 WR or draft Trey Benson and hope he has eaten into some of Jonathan Connor's touches down the stretch. Maybe JK Dobbins has a bounce back year or maybe another guy Mike Williams (who is also recovering from an ACL) has a good year catching passes from Aaron Rodgers. The upside is massive assuming he returns healthy, assuming coach gives him the carries, assuming he's the same player, and all of that. Or you can just draft a player who is actually healthy and will be available to cover for injuries and bye weeks.
On paper, it looks like you could build a nice team with him as depth, until injuries and bye weeks become a reality. It's the same knee he has previously torn his PCL, MCL and LCL back in 2015. He had to have two separate surgeries: one to repair the MCL / meniscus and another to repair his ACL. Absolutely brutal.
Javonte Williams is probably the most recent comparison and he tore his ACL, LCL, and PCL. Nick Chubb tore his ACL, MCL, and meniscus. Javonte was 22 - 23 when he was injured, Nick Chubb was 27 and Javonte Williams has clearly not been the same player. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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BIRDGANG52
Footballguy
Not to mention the tread on those tires, even if he wasn't hurt you'd have to worry about decline. He has the 10th most carries amongst current NFL RB. Had he not gotten hurt after only 28 carries last year, he would probably be at around 1,450 carries which would have put him all the way up to #6 on the list just above Dalvin Cook and below Latavius Murray. Great company to be in, right? Two guys who refuse to admit they shouldn't be listed as "active" RB anymore, lol. Retirement is coming.
This is not a list you want to be high on, especially coming off a crazy injury. Everyone else on this list with over 1,300 carries is perceived to be on their last legs, or in decline, and none of them have torn their ACLs previous except Gordon, Murray, and Cook, who non-surprisingly find themselves non-relevant. Which isn't surprising, it just tells you that guys who tear their ACLs normally don't "make it" to 1,300 carries. Nick Chubb almost made it, he managed to get to 1,238 before his blew out.
www.pro-football-reference.com
This is not a list you want to be high on, especially coming off a crazy injury. Everyone else on this list with over 1,300 carries is perceived to be on their last legs, or in decline, and none of them have torn their ACLs previous except Gordon, Murray, and Cook, who non-surprisingly find themselves non-relevant. Which isn't surprising, it just tells you that guys who tear their ACLs normally don't "make it" to 1,300 carries. Nick Chubb almost made it, he managed to get to 1,238 before his blew out.
| Rank | Player | Att | Years | Tm |
| 1 | Ezekiel Elliott | 2,065 | 2016-2023 | 2TM |
| 2 | Derrick Henry | 2,030 | 2016-2023 | oti |
| 3 | Melvin Gordon | 1,593 | 2015-2023 | 3TM |
| 4 | Joe Mixon | 1,571 | 2017-2023 | cin |
| 5 | Latavius Murray | 1,560 | 2014-2023 | 6TM |
| 6 | Dalvin Cook | 1,349 | 2017-2023 | 3TM |
| 7 | Alvin Kamara | 1,315 | 2017-2023 | nor |
| 8 | Josh Jacobs | 1,305 | 2019-2023 | rai |
| 9 | Christian McCaffrey | 1,297 | 2017-2023 | 2TM |
| 10 | Nick Chubb | 1,238 | 2018-2023 | cle |
| 11 | Saquon Barkley | 1,201 | 2018-2023 | nyg |
| 12 | Aaron Jones | 1,177 | 2017-2023 | gnb |
| 13 | Leonard Fournette | 1,144 | 2017-2023 | 3TM |
| 14 | David Montgomery | 1,134 | 2019-2023 | 2TM |
| 15 | James Conner | 1,125 | 2017-2023 | 2TM |
| 16 | Kareem Hunt | 1,030 | 2017-2023 | 2TM |
| 17 | Jamaal Williams | 1,021 | 2017-2023 | 3TM |
| 18 | Austin Ekeler | 990 | 2017-2023 | sdg |
| 19 | Russell Wilson | 981 | 2012-2023 | 2TM |
| 20 | Jonathan Taylor | 925 | 2020-2023 | clt |
| 21 | Devin Singletary | 888 | 2019-2023 | 2TM |
| 22 | Lamar Jackson | 875 | 2018-2023 | rav |
| 23 | Kenyan Drake | 869 | 2016-2023 | 5TM |
| 24 | Miles Sanders | 868 | 2019-2023 | 2TM |
| 25 | Najee Harris | 834 | 2021-2023 | pit |
NFL Rushing Attempts Active Leaders | Pro-Football-Reference.com
1. Derrick Henry (2,419), 2. Joe Mixon (1,816), 3. Josh Jacobs (1,686), 4. Saquon Barkley (1,629), 5. Alvin Kamara (1,616),
www.pro-football-reference.com
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb (knee) may not return to a full workload until the final month of the season, according to Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com.
-Doesn't sound good and Ford is becoming a better and better pick if you drafted him
-Doesn't sound good and Ford is becoming a better and better pick if you drafted him
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb (knee) may not return to a full workload until the final month of the season, according to Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com.
-Doesn't sound good and Ford is becoming a better and better pick if you drafted him
Managed to get Ford in the 10th last night, a full 2 rounds after Chubb. I actually root for Chubb to come back at as close to 100% as humanly possible but I could certainly live with Ford being a serviceable flex this season.
it is. but this isnt a regular ACL injury. other ligaments were damaged too. This is why the rehab takes longer. with each extra ligament damaged along with the ACL I tack on 3-6 months for the rehab. and the fact hes starting on IR or PUP, that likely means half his season is burned already. he may be a nice bargain buy in dynasty where you can hold a player for a year or so but in redraft you are unlikely to get your draft value for him.
I acknowledge there is now a large discount to get him now, it may getting close to the point where it may be worth it, but I'm avoiding all the same.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Oh I have zero interest.
I have been a Chubb fan since he entered the league. Drafted him many times and been overall happy with that decision. I honestly do not think I'll draft him this year unless he falls way down below current ADP. I just don't have confidence that even when/if he returns in 2024 he will have a full workload and have the juice he had before.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
I’m rooting for him—but I wont be drafting him. I think that if he comes back at all (even in a limited fashion)—that it would be remarkable. That injury looked career ending to me—and I’d hope that they would ease him back in even if he was cleared to somehow come back this season. I think it would almost be cruel to immediately give him bell cow responsibilities after coming back from that. I’d far rather see glimpses of him being healthy this year—and perhaps going back to more usage next year.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
all depends where you get him
In my 10 Teamer I got him in the 12th after I took ETN, Mixon, Z White then took Chubb back to back with Pollard. If your getting him at that value how can you turn it down especially if you can get Ford shortly after (I couldn't... they saw what I was doing) and you can IR him for the 1st 4 games
Agreed it depends where you get him. But I'm in a 12 team redraft league and I look at how I am trying construct a roster and Chubb doesn't fit. I'm looking for 3 healthy RB1 (not fantasy but at least #1 in real life on their team) followed by two guys with potential to become league winners. Such as Zach Charbonett, or Trey Benson. I just don't see Chubb coming back this year and being "the man" like he was in the past. Maybe next year. And - (don't tell my wife) - I could be wrong.
Ford should be going ahead of Chubb. Chubb is DND unless you have an open IR slot.
Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb (knee) may not return to a full workload until the final month of the season, according to Daniel Oyefusi of ESPN.com.
-Doesn't sound good and Ford is becoming a better and better pick if you drafted him
Browns’ Nick Chubb expected to miss season after ghastly knee injury on ‘Monday Night Football’
Chubb clutched his left knee and writhed in pain, brushing off teammates as they offered to help him up.
nypost.com
If he can even play again. That injury looked horrendous.
I actually see D'onta Foreman as more of a threat to Jerome Ford than I do Chubb this year. I just can't see Chubb playing this year. Foreman also fits the style of play the Browns want to play which is run over 500x and play great defense. Foreman gets better the more touches he gets. Did great with the Panthers crappy team in 2022 after McCaffrey left, and than went to the worst offensive coordinator in football last year with a RB mess. On my radar for one more year before I give up on him.
