joey
Footballguy
This is me 100% as well, I’m a league where I have a need at RB.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
RB Omarion Hampton, LAC (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Ditto
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
If we 'thought exercise' this out, let's look at the teams who need RB's.
'Screaming' Potential Need
Raiders - rumored for Jeanty at #6, but that's likely only possible if they sign Darnold
Cowboys - feels like RB squarely on the board for them at #12
Broncos - not sure they go RB at #20, but RB room is thin
Steelers - if they don't re-sign Najee, then all they have is Warren
Chargers - Dobbins is a FA
Vikings - great year out of Aaron Jones, but another FA
Other teams possible if value falls...
Bears - An RB at #10 unlikely, but RB room is unimpressive
Bengals - Chase Brown emerged, but he was overworked once Moss went down
Chiefs - Were fortunate to be able to secure Hunt when Pacheco went down
The last time 3 RB's drafted in Round 1 was 2018 (Barkley, Penny, Michel). What with the RB resurrgence this past year along with the high level options in this class, I think it's more than likely.
I'd give it about a 5% chance.
The depth of the RB class and talent along the lines and edge work against it.
Even if only 2 QB's and 2 TE's I don't think it would happen because of how many among the lines/edge get drafted to go along with assumed locks such as the top 2 QB's, TE's, WR's and CB's. My guess with just this group of 2's and the line/edge you'll be looking at around 27-29 spots taken and that's before getting into S and LB which likely have 3 first round picks.
So looking at that group of 2 each among QB, TE, WR, RB and S to go along with likely one LB and you are already going to close to maxed out in round one. All of those positions are going to struggle to get 3 or more into round one and I was ranking it by most to least likely I'd have it as WR, QB, TE, RB and S.
It's going to be a meat and pototatos round one, think about 2/3rd of the picks will be OL, DL/edge.
Day 2 and 3 are going to be lit though.
Jeanty is the only one I'd feel confident saying he'll go round 1. I think Hampton deserves to, but the supply is still so much greater than the demand. I could see like 6 guys gone by the end of round 2 though.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
If you're an elite RB, wouldn't you rather be a 2nd round pick?
Seems like you'd want to get to your second contact ASAP and therefore you'd want to avoid that 5th year option teams get when they take you in the 1st.
Seems like you'd want to get to your second contact ASAP and therefore you'd want to avoid that 5th year option teams get when they take you in the 1st.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I never thought of it that way, you’re right.
rockaction
Footballguy
It's quite possible, and I thought that at one point, but the overwhelming consensus seems to be that guys want to be in the first round. There are two things to consider: the likelihood of you getting hurt on your first contract as an RB (therefore not seeing a second contract) and the slotted payment schedule probably overrides the option year depressing your free agent market value. Plus, the option picked up (if picked up) is generally pretty hefty.
Not only will most RBs never see second contracts, clubs aren't paying top-dollar contracts for any backs anymore. It took Saquon moving to a rival to get what he deserved and he didn't get what he deserved even then.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Yeah, I agree when it's "most" guys but elite (even borderline) guys still get paid.
Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook both got nice second contracts, for example.
Anyway, not really a rabbit hole that needs diving into. Just a random musing. Guys don't really have a choice anyway - you get drafted where you get drafted and you make the best of it regardless.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Right now is the time to do it. You're looking (on average) at another late 2025 late 1st/early 2nd on top of your 1.12. But I think owners who are deep in draft prep will want more. And once the NFL draft happens; if Hampton/Henderson/Judkins/Johnson land in a Chicago/LA/Dallas/Denver spot (which almost feels like a sure thing at least one of those teams take at least one of these guys), I'm guessing that price will about double.
I can see people make the argument they'd rather have like 1.04/5 over 1.02 as many of these guys are in a similar tier (and that opens the door for a guy like Tet to hold more value). But 1.12 is most definitely after the first tier break IMO. Give or take 5RBs, 3WRs, and 2TEs for that first tier of players (ignoring Jeanty is probably a tier of his own). If I wasn't in early mid 1st, I'd be looking to get in the mid-late 2nd.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
This is my exact thought as well. The sheer number of backs who are getting NFL stater grades from scouts/analysts will probably work against them going in the first round. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a record number go in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. In fact, I wonder if FanDuel has a bet for this....
Harjiran
Footballguy
Conversely buying some extra time until that second contract might be an incentive for teams to select an RB in the first round if they're convinced he's truly elite.
Yeah, 4 year rookie contract, 5th year option, Franchise tag...draft a new RB, that's certainly a cycle.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
I'm seeing comparisons to Josh Jacobs. Tough, hard-runner who may lack breakaway speed but solid in both pass pro and receiving
sheerterror
Footballguy
Sitting on 1.12, 2.2, 3.2, 3.4 and 3.12 so I have some capital, but I'm not sure 1.12 2.2 and 3.2 would be enough. My roster lacks good 'sweetener-type' players for this particularly move.
Other option is trading one of Lamar or Jaden Daniels (start 1QB, but heavy QB scoring), but I actually think either of those guys is worth 1.1 in this format.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I can say 1.12/2.2/3.2 for 1.2 would def get me thinking quite a bit right now just because of the depth. But I also mostly play in leagues with big benches and start 10+. Smaller benches/less starters in a league and you'd obv rather have the difference maker than potentially another 3 flex guys. I'd float that offer to the 1.02/1.03 guys and see. KTC has pretty much even before you even include the 3.02; so maybe hold that back and if they waffle a bit at just 1.12/2.02 add in the 3.02 and see if it pushes them to just close.
I'd rather go round one if I was in that position.
Bare minimum you lose $2.3M off the bat.
I'd have to conclude that if I was getting drafted in late round one that even if I thought I was special the NFL is telling me they consider me to be really good but maybe not elite. I'd not want to give up several guaranteed million in hopes that after 4 years things will go well enough I'll now be considered elite enough to risk giving up a few million guaranteed now to make it back up later.
I'd just not feel great risking that much guaranteed coin and would instead think if things go well over the next 4-5 years things will work themselves out.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Not necessarily. It's not "the NFL" deciding but individual teams. And the bad teams at the top likely/shouldn't take a non-premium position like RB in the upper ranges of the first.
I'm probably oversimplifying but would you rather be Dalvin Cook or Travis Etienne? Not an apples to apples comparison since Cook produced more but it gives the idea.
Anyway, it's not a hill I'm going to defend much.
I forget who it was, somebody on the NFL Network's draft coverage that wasn't Jeremiah, but they comped Hampton to Melvin Gordon, and I thought that was an interesting name that's kinda forgotten to time because of how quick he fell off.
rockaction
Footballguy
Didn't Melvin take his 3.9-4.1 YPC and get by on that forever? He seemed like he was around forever. He certainly blocked Ekeler and then Javonte Williams at the end of Gordon's career and the beginning of Javonte's.
In Gordon's defense, the Chargers had arguably the worst OL in the NFL at the time. As soon as he went to Denver he was up at 4.6 YPC. Its not my comp, just one they mentioned at the combine that I thought was interesting.
I think Hampton rightfully goes round 1 and should be the 1.2 rookie pick.
sheerterror
Footballguy
How big of a gap is there currently between Jeanty and Hampton assuming landing spots are roughly neutral (ie one to Dal one to Den)?
I have 1.1 and am curious what moving down to 1.2 might be worth.
I have 1.1 and am curious what moving down to 1.2 might be worth.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Personally I have them close to even, enough so where landing spot will probably be a deciding factor in my final rankings of the two.
Max Power
Footballguy
I'd probably trade down as well if the 1.02 is offering a solid sweetener. A 2nd round pick or mid-level starter.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I can't imagine moving down from pick 1 to pick 2 for a 2nd rounder.
I mean, that could be possible after the draft but right now?? Eww
Agreed. And especially in today’s day and age where one ill-advised social media post or drunken mistake could result in a prospect’s draft value tanking, rightly or wrongly.
Max Power
Footballguy
I'd take Hampton and #14 overall for Jeanty.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Hampton avg 4.2 YAC per attempt in 2023 plus he posted a 26% evasion rate in 2024. In 2024 he ran 218 routes, caught 38 passes, gained 363 yards, and broke 11 additional tackles. With 96th percentile explosion and a 4.46 forty at 221 pounds, Hampton’s closest comps are Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook.
Tex
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I wouldn't pre draft in case one of them goes to a team with a good young RB. Wouldn't be the first time that's happened
JoeKappBudGrant
Footballguy
Since 2015 there have been 5 RBs drafted in the 1st round that were at least 6 foot tall and 220 pounds. Their rookie year those 5 backs averaged 1660 total yards and 12 TDs.
eighsse2
Footballguy
That's pretty crazy.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Right, but that can work out fine too. Gibbs sure hasn’t suffered for it.
Faust
MVP
Player Profiler
Omarion Hampton SHOWED OUT at the Combine and could be the 1st RB taken in the 2025 Draft.
4.46 40-yard dash (86th percentile)
Add that to a 38.5% Dominator Rating (90th), and is there any way he's not a 1st rounder?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I wouldn’t either.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I'd hate this on so many levels...
