As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.
I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.
I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.
I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.
Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.
I'm definitely more patient with RBs and try to roster as many as possible. The situation can change very quickly - see Jerome Ford. Ford was a later NFL draft pick who now has an opportunity and is getting valuable touches.
Each league is different and not everyone can be stashed but in general one must be ready to pivot and make some quick moves. The RB landscape changes fast.
It depends a lot on roster spots and starting requirements, but yeah stashing some RB who might fall into a favorable opportunity always worthwhile.
It's just a matter of how many spots you have available for this.
In the context of the trade we were discussing, one team is giving up 3 RB prospects one WR prospect 1 WR starter for 1 RB starter and 2 draft picks.
One team gains 3 RB prospects 1 WR prospect and 1 WR starter. This means they likely need to cut 4 other players they had to make room for what they gain.
The other team frees up 4 spots that can be used to pick up new prospects, who may be longer odds to get opportunity than Johnson, but that opportunity is still there.
The team getting the freed up roster spots might like one or more players the team adding 4 players cuts.
The total number of players rostered does matter here. The deeper the rosters the weaker the free agent pool and the more spots each team has to hold these players.
If we are talking about 12 teams 30 roster spots that's 360 players taken out of the pool and making trades for depth prospects makes more sense than 12 teams 20 roster spots 240 players taken out of the pool.