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RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (1 Viewer)

As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.
Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.
If "move off" means drop or sell for peanuts, then I agree. But I have no qualms with moving rookies who haven't performed or had a chance yet, even immediately after drafting them. I had an offer of a 2024 first and second for Roschon before the season started. Should have taken it. Considered it.

Did end up using Roschon, Spears, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston to get Gibbs though.
Damn I would have jumped on a 2024 first and a second for him even as a truther.
I know, I was stupid, but RB's are treated like rubies in our league ... And I thought his picks would be late, they're looking more mid or "anywhere" now.
I tend to not think too much about where the opponents picks might end up unless they have an obviously weak team.

You can always trade those picks at another time for players or other picks.

The thing is to try to use the time value discount in your favor.

You sell current season picks when its getting closer to the draft or even during the draft for picks the following season with a sweetener (like a 3rd round pick) added in each time to grind value that way.

Then bundle picks together to upgrade them later on.

If your league highly values RB then of course use that to your advantage. Be the owner who is alway willing to trade RB away so your competitors keep coming to you to buy them.

Then pick up new RB prospects to sell with the freed up roster spots. Rinse and repeat.

Of course you will lose trades sometimes. But doing that just makes opponents want to trade with you more in future.

When you do use picks on rookie players, be very specifically selective about it. Otherwise sell.
Right on board with basically everything you're saying. I do struggle with what to do about the RB insanity. I want to take advantage of it, but, you also need to have some RB's somehow or another, and they won't be easy to acquire in an injury emergency.

Only thing is with trading picks, our league banned trading future picks more than 1 year out. Which I think is insane, but they voted for it.
I agree with it. As a commissioner I find it hard enough finding replacements, let alone those who have gutted their team of picks. One could say make them pay that year’s fees, but what if isn’t 1st round picks? Half for Trading 2nds? A third for trading 3rds?
I'd be fine with paying full fees for any year that you trade picks, of any round. I plan on suggesting that. It's better than nothing, but still means you'd have to convince the other guy to pay his dues ahead of time. But that's fair.
 
As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.
Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.
If "move off" means drop or sell for peanuts, then I agree. But I have no qualms with moving rookies who haven't performed or had a chance yet, even immediately after drafting them. I had an offer of a 2024 first and second for Roschon before the season started. Should have taken it. Considered it.

Did end up using Roschon, Spears, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston to get Gibbs though.
Damn I would have jumped on a 2024 first and a second for him even as a truther.
I know, I was stupid, but RB's are treated like rubies in our league ... And I thought his picks would be late, they're looking more mid or "anywhere" now.
I tend to not think too much about where the opponents picks might end up unless they have an obviously weak team.

You can always trade those picks at another time for players or other picks.

The thing is to try to use the time value discount in your favor.

You sell current season picks when its getting closer to the draft or even during the draft for picks the following season with a sweetener (like a 3rd round pick) added in each time to grind value that way.

Then bundle picks together to upgrade them later on.

If your league highly values RB then of course use that to your advantage. Be the owner who is alway willing to trade RB away so your competitors keep coming to you to buy them.

Then pick up new RB prospects to sell with the freed up roster spots. Rinse and repeat.

Of course you will lose trades sometimes. But doing that just makes opponents want to trade with you more in future.

When you do use picks on rookie players, be very specifically selective about it. Otherwise sell.
Right on board with basically everything you're saying. I do struggle with what to do about the RB insanity. I want to take advantage of it, but, you also need to have some RB's somehow or another, and they won't be easy to acquire in an injury emergency.

Only thing is with trading picks, our league banned trading future picks more than 1 year out. Which I think is insane, but they voted for it.
I agree with it. As a commissioner I find it hard enough finding replacements, let alone those who have gutted their team of picks. One could say make them pay that year’s fees, but what if isn’t 1st round picks? Half for Trading 2nds? A third for trading 3rds?
I also agree with limiting this. We have discussed this before. I think it makes for a healthier league.

I would say pay the full cost regardless of picks traded if that is the compromise.

Not saying allowing trades for picks more than one year out can't work. Play how you want. But if it is allowed the league better be full of hard-core sharps or someone is going to get gutted.
 
As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.
Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.
If "move off" means drop or sell for peanuts, then I agree. But I have no qualms with moving rookies who haven't performed or had a chance yet, even immediately after drafting them. I had an offer of a 2024 first and second for Roschon before the season started. Should have taken it. Considered it.

Did end up using Roschon, Spears, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston to get Gibbs though.
Damn I would have jumped on a 2024 first and a second for him even as a truther.
I know, I was stupid, but RB's are treated like rubies in our league ... And I thought his picks would be late, they're looking more mid or "anywhere" now.
I tend to not think too much about where the opponents picks might end up unless they have an obviously weak team.

You can always trade those picks at another time for players or other picks.

The thing is to try to use the time value discount in your favor.

You sell current season picks when its getting closer to the draft or even during the draft for picks the following season with a sweetener (like a 3rd round pick) added in each time to grind value that way.

Then bundle picks together to upgrade them later on.

If your league highly values RB then of course use that to your advantage. Be the owner who is alway willing to trade RB away so your competitors keep coming to you to buy them.

Then pick up new RB prospects to sell with the freed up roster spots. Rinse and repeat.

Of course you will lose trades sometimes. But doing that just makes opponents want to trade with you more in future.

When you do use picks on rookie players, be very specifically selective about it. Otherwise sell.
Right on board with basically everything you're saying. I do struggle with what to do about the RB insanity. I want to take advantage of it, but, you also need to have some RB's somehow or another, and they won't be easy to acquire in an injury emergency.

Only thing is with trading picks, our league banned trading future picks more than 1 year out. Which I think is insane, but they voted for it.
I agree with it. As a commissioner I find it hard enough finding replacements, let alone those who have gutted their team of picks. One could say make them pay that year’s fees, but what if isn’t 1st round picks? Half for Trading 2nds? A third for trading 3rds?
I also agree with limiting this. We have discussed this before. I think it makes for a healthier league.

I would say pay the full cost regardless of picks traded if that is the compromise.

Not saying allowing trades for picks more than one year out can't work. Play how you want. But if it is allowed the league better be full of hard-core sharps or someone is going to get gutted.
The advent and increased prevalence of leaguesafe as an option I think makes this easier now. We finally got some of my longtime dynasty leagues to convert over to leaguesafe in the last few years. As someone who was in plenty of leagues that folded over the years or even had Commish's abscond with the funds I was always hesitant to pay too much up front and therefore that led to less trading of future picks. But now that the funds are (supposedly) safely deposited with a 3rd party I have less of an issue with paying up for future picks.

Anyone else on these boards remember the Misfits leagues and when they went under? Or there was another high profile, big bunch of leagues that the name escapes me now that a prominent poster ran (Bruce Zowned?) and gambled all the league funds away.
 
As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.
Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.
If "move off" means drop or sell for peanuts, then I agree. But I have no qualms with moving rookies who haven't performed or had a chance yet, even immediately after drafting them. I had an offer of a 2024 first and second for Roschon before the season started. Should have taken it. Considered it.

Did end up using Roschon, Spears, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston to get Gibbs though.
Damn I would have jumped on a 2024 first and a second for him even as a truther.
I know, I was stupid, but RB's are treated like rubies in our league ... And I thought his picks would be late, they're looking more mid or "anywhere" now.
I tend to not think too much about where the opponents picks might end up unless they have an obviously weak team.

You can always trade those picks at another time for players or other picks.

The thing is to try to use the time value discount in your favor.

You sell current season picks when its getting closer to the draft or even during the draft for picks the following season with a sweetener (like a 3rd round pick) added in each time to grind value that way.

Then bundle picks together to upgrade them later on.

If your league highly values RB then of course use that to your advantage. Be the owner who is alway willing to trade RB away so your competitors keep coming to you to buy them.

Then pick up new RB prospects to sell with the freed up roster spots. Rinse and repeat.

Of course you will lose trades sometimes. But doing that just makes opponents want to trade with you more in future.

When you do use picks on rookie players, be very specifically selective about it. Otherwise sell.
Right on board with basically everything you're saying. I do struggle with what to do about the RB insanity. I want to take advantage of it, but, you also need to have some RB's somehow or another, and they won't be easy to acquire in an injury emergency.

Only thing is with trading picks, our league banned trading future picks more than 1 year out. Which I think is insane, but they voted for it.
I agree with it. As a commissioner I find it hard enough finding replacements, let alone those who have gutted their team of picks. One could say make them pay that year’s fees, but what if isn’t 1st round picks? Half for Trading 2nds? A third for trading 3rds?
I also agree with limiting this. We have discussed this before. I think it makes for a healthier league.

I would say pay the full cost regardless of picks traded if that is the compromise.

Not saying allowing trades for picks more than one year out can't work. Play how you want. But if it is allowed the league better be full of hard-core sharps or someone is going to get gutted.
The advent and increased prevalence of leaguesafe as an option I think makes this easier now. We finally got some of my longtime dynasty leagues to convert over to leaguesafe in the last few years. As someone who was in plenty of leagues that folded over the years or even had Commish's abscond with the funds I was always hesitant to pay too much up front and therefore that led to less trading of future picks. But now that the funds are (supposedly) safely deposited with a 3rd party I have less of an issue with paying up for future picks.

Anyone else on these boards remember the Misfits leagues and when they went under? Or there was another high profile, big bunch of leagues that the name escapes me now that a prominent poster ran (Bruce Zowned?) and gambled all the league funds away.
Phenoms.

Don't remind me of thar pyramid scheme scam.
 
As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.
Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.
I'm definitely more patient with RBs and try to roster as many as possible. The situation can change very quickly - see Jerome Ford. Ford was a later NFL draft pick who now has an opportunity and is getting valuable touches.

Each league is different and not everyone can be stashed but in general one must be ready to pivot and make some quick moves. The RB landscape changes fast.
 
As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.
Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.
I'm definitely more patient with RBs and try to roster as many as possible. The situation can change very quickly - see Jerome Ford. Ford was a later NFL draft pick who now has an opportunity and is getting valuable touches.

Each league is different and not everyone can be stashed but in general one must be ready to pivot and make some quick moves. The RB landscape changes fast.
It depends a lot on roster spots and starting requirements, but yeah stashing some RB who might fall into a favorable opportunity always worthwhile.

It's just a matter of how many spots you have available for this.

In the context of the trade we were discussing, one team is giving up 3 RB prospects one WR prospect 1 WR starter for 1 RB starter and 2 draft picks.

One team gains 3 RB prospects 1 WR prospect and 1 WR starter. This means they likely need to cut 4 other players they had to make room for what they gain.

The other team frees up 4 spots that can be used to pick up new prospects, who may be longer odds to get opportunity than Johnson, but that opportunity is still there.

The team getting the freed up roster spots might like one or more players the team adding 4 players cuts.

The total number of players rostered does matter here. The deeper the rosters the weaker the free agent pool and the more spots each team has to hold these players.

If we are talking about 12 teams 30 roster spots that's 360 players taken out of the pool and making trades for depth prospects makes more sense than 12 teams 20 roster spots 240 players taken out of the pool.
 
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As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.
Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.
I'm definitely more patient with RBs and try to roster as many as possible. The situation can change very quickly - see Jerome Ford. Ford was a later NFL draft pick who now has an opportunity and is getting valuable touches.

Each league is different and not everyone can be stashed but in general one must be ready to pivot and make some quick moves. The RB landscape changes fast.
It depends a lot on roster spots and starting requirements, but yeah stashing some RB who might fall into a favorable opportunity always worthwhile.

It's just a matter of how many spots you have available for this.

In the context of the trade we were discussing, one team is giving up 3 RB prospects one WR prospect 1 WR starter for 1 RB starter and 2 draft picks.

One team gains 3 RB prospects 1 WR prospect and 1 WR starter. This means they likely need to cut 4 other players they had to make room for what they gain.

The other team frees up 4 spots that can be used to pick up new prospects, who may be longer odds to get opportunity than Johnson, but that opportunity is still there.

The team getting the freed up roster spots might like one or more players the team adding 4 players cuts.
For example's sake, I can tell you exactly what occurred after that trade.

He dropped Seahawks DST, Mooney, Shorter, Claypool, Lance (not sure why 5 and not 4, maybe he also had someone coming off of IR). I had no interest in those.

I added Abanikanda, Tillman, and Deuce Vaughn, and let Kenny McIntosh come in from IR. Since then I have cut Tillman for Shakir. Abanikanda and Vaughn were both guys that I wanted but couldn't make room for. Tillman was a "what the heck, I have a roster spot, why not", but much happier with Shakir. Not exactly great prospects. All three RB's are buried. But it's a little something.
 
As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.
Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.
I'm definitely more patient with RBs and try to roster as many as possible. The situation can change very quickly - see Jerome Ford. Ford was a later NFL draft pick who now has an opportunity and is getting valuable touches.

Each league is different and not everyone can be stashed but in general one must be ready to pivot and make some quick moves. The RB landscape changes fast.
It depends a lot on roster spots and starting requirements, but yeah stashing some RB who might fall into a favorable opportunity always worthwhile.

It's just a matter of how many spots you have available for this.

In the context of the trade we were discussing, one team is giving up 3 RB prospects one WR prospect 1 WR starter for 1 RB starter and 2 draft picks.

One team gains 3 RB prospects 1 WR prospect and 1 WR starter. This means they likely need to cut 4 other players they had to make room for what they gain.

The other team frees up 4 spots that can be used to pick up new prospects, who may be longer odds to get opportunity than Johnson, but that opportunity is still there.

The team getting the freed up roster spots might like one or more players the team adding 4 players cuts.
For example's sake, I can tell you exactly what occurred after that trade.

He dropped Seahawks DST, Mooney, Shorter, Claypool, Lance (not sure why 5 and not 4, maybe he also had someone coming off of IR). I had no interest in those.

I added Abanikanda, Tillman, and Deuce Vaughn, and let Kenny McIntosh come in from IR. Since then I have cut Tillman for Shakir. Abanikanda and Vaughn were both guys that I wanted but couldn't make room for. Tillman was a "what the heck, I have a roster spot, why not", but much happier with Shakir. Not exactly great prospects. All three RB's are buried. But it's a little something.
Right. And being less tied to those players long term means you can pick up speculative adds along the way without losing much.

If your team is full of players that will instantly be picked up if you drop them, you are more reluctant to drop anyone for this.

I don't know how many total roster spots your league has, but in 20 roster spot leagues I think its almost impossible to lose on that deal. In deeper leagues its still in your favor, just not by quite as much.
 
As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.
Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.
I'm definitely more patient with RBs and try to roster as many as possible. The situation can change very quickly - see Jerome Ford. Ford was a later NFL draft pick who now has an opportunity and is getting valuable touches.

Each league is different and not everyone can be stashed but in general one must be ready to pivot and make some quick moves. The RB landscape changes fast.
It depends a lot on roster spots and starting requirements, but yeah stashing some RB who might fall into a favorable opportunity always worthwhile.

It's just a matter of how many spots you have available for this.

In the context of the trade we were discussing, one team is giving up 3 RB prospects one WR prospect 1 WR starter for 1 RB starter and 2 draft picks.

One team gains 3 RB prospects 1 WR prospect and 1 WR starter. This means they likely need to cut 4 other players they had to make room for what they gain.

The other team frees up 4 spots that can be used to pick up new prospects, who may be longer odds to get opportunity than Johnson, but that opportunity is still there.

The team getting the freed up roster spots might like one or more players the team adding 4 players cuts.

The total number of players rostered does matter here. The deeper the rosters the weaker the free agent pool and the more spots each team has to hold these players.

If we are talking about 12 teams 30 roster spots that's 360 players taken out of the pool and making trades for depth prospects makes more sense than 12 teams 20 roster spots 240 players taken out of the pool.
Each league is different. I can't comment on trades sending 3-4 guys each way or holding X-RBs and Y-WRs etc. In general terms I'd rather hold a RB who could blow up any given week if given 15-20 touches (Hello Foreman).

I drafted Rochon in one dynasty league with a mid-second rounder. I'm 100% fine with this and will hold him - no regrets about drafting him. He's still very young at 22 and learning the ropes of the NFL. He has the size to be a true 3-down workhorse if given the chance. His blocking was good in college AND he can catch passes. Long term I'm willing to hold to see what happens. The Bears just don't seem sold on Herbert who was a 6th round pick. Herbert has flashed but I'm not sure they trust him in pass protect - and he's had trouble staying on the field.

Anyways, Rochon is a guy who I feel could be a solid long-term starter in the NFL if given the shot. I'll gladly take him and even see a buy opportunity right now.
 
As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.
Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.
I'm definitely more patient with RBs and try to roster as many as possible. The situation can change very quickly - see Jerome Ford. Ford was a later NFL draft pick who now has an opportunity and is getting valuable touches.

Each league is different and not everyone can be stashed but in general one must be ready to pivot and make some quick moves. The RB landscape changes fast.
It depends a lot on roster spots and starting requirements, but yeah stashing some RB who might fall into a favorable opportunity always worthwhile.

It's just a matter of how many spots you have available for this.

In the context of the trade we were discussing, one team is giving up 3 RB prospects one WR prospect 1 WR starter for 1 RB starter and 2 draft picks.

One team gains 3 RB prospects 1 WR prospect and 1 WR starter. This means they likely need to cut 4 other players they had to make room for what they gain.

The other team frees up 4 spots that can be used to pick up new prospects, who may be longer odds to get opportunity than Johnson, but that opportunity is still there.

The team getting the freed up roster spots might like one or more players the team adding 4 players cuts.

The total number of players rostered does matter here. The deeper the rosters the weaker the free agent pool and the more spots each team has to hold these players.

If we are talking about 12 teams 30 roster spots that's 360 players taken out of the pool and making trades for depth prospects makes more sense than 12 teams 20 roster spots 240 players taken out of the pool.
Each league is different. I can't comment on trades sending 3-4 guys each way or holding X-RBs and Y-WRs etc. In general terms I'd rather hold a RB who could blow up any given week if given 15-20 touches (Hello Foreman).

I drafted Rochon in one dynasty league with a mid-second rounder. I'm 100% fine with this and will hold him - no regrets about drafting him. He's still very young at 22 and learning the ropes of the NFL. He has the size to be a true 3-down workhorse if given the chance. His blocking was good in college AND he can catch passes. Long term I'm willing to hold to see what happens. The Bears just don't seem sold on Herbert who was a 6th round pick. Herbert has flashed but I'm not sure they trust him in pass protect - and he's had trouble staying on the field.

Anyways, Rochon is a guy who I feel could be a solid long-term starter in the NFL if given the shot. I'll gladly take him and even see a buy opportunity right now.
I can see that even though I'm not that excited about Johnson. He has some good things going for him like you say.

As I've said before though I don't like the situation with the Bears, near or long term until something changes.

RB careers are short and things turnover so quickly. Who knows if this is good before Johnson is too old or if he is their guy by then.

From a generic roster management perspective I would rather use that last roster spot on a player like Foreman who is old but can do something for me now if I need it.

Or Leonard Fournette or something as a speculative add.
 
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Something I think a lot of dynasty players don't think about is opportunity cost.

Having a roster spot tied up on a speculative player like Johnson for 3 years might not ever amount to anything unless you can trade him for something else.

You could pick up 20 different players over that time with that roster spot, possibly trading those players a few times and actually get something out of it. Even though it's not something you hold on to for long.
 
As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.
Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.
I'm definitely more patient with RBs and try to roster as many as possible. The situation can change very quickly - see Jerome Ford. Ford was a later NFL draft pick who now has an opportunity and is getting valuable touches.

Each league is different and not everyone can be stashed but in general one must be ready to pivot and make some quick moves. The RB landscape changes fast.
It depends a lot on roster spots and starting requirements, but yeah stashing some RB who might fall into a favorable opportunity always worthwhile.

It's just a matter of how many spots you have available for this.

In the context of the trade we were discussing, one team is giving up 3 RB prospects one WR prospect 1 WR starter for 1 RB starter and 2 draft picks.

One team gains 3 RB prospects 1 WR prospect and 1 WR starter. This means they likely need to cut 4 other players they had to make room for what they gain.

The other team frees up 4 spots that can be used to pick up new prospects, who may be longer odds to get opportunity than Johnson, but that opportunity is still there.

The team getting the freed up roster spots might like one or more players the team adding 4 players cuts.
For example's sake, I can tell you exactly what occurred after that trade.

He dropped Seahawks DST, Mooney, Shorter, Claypool, Lance (not sure why 5 and not 4, maybe he also had someone coming off of IR). I had no interest in those.

I added Abanikanda, Tillman, and Deuce Vaughn, and let Kenny McIntosh come in from IR. Since then I have cut Tillman for Shakir. Abanikanda and Vaughn were both guys that I wanted but couldn't make room for. Tillman was a "what the heck, I have a roster spot, why not", but much happier with Shakir. Not exactly great prospects. All three RB's are buried. But it's a little something.
Right. And being less tied to those players long term means you can pick up speculative adds along the way without losing much.

If your team is full of players that will instantly be picked up if you drop them, you are more reluctant to drop anyone for this.

I don't know how many total roster spots your league has, but in 20 roster spot leagues I think its almost impossible to lose on that deal. In deeper leagues its still in your favor, just not by quite as much.
It is 20. What made me reluctant about it is, if even one of those 3 RB prospects hits it big (which, look at Spears nipping at Henry'a heels; Miller hasn't done anything special but he was considered a top RB of the class and is just waiting in the wing; heard a lot of good things about Roschon, he's had mixed results so far, but he doesn't have anybody permanent in his way), and if Gibbs should be anything short of phenomenal, then swapping that RB for Gibbs should only be a moderate improvement. Then all that other stuff involved in the deal looks like a loss to me. But, that's an if that certainly may mot happen.
 
Something I think a lot of dynasty players don't think about is opportunity cost.

Having a roster spot tied up on a speculative player like Johnson for 3 years might not ever amount to anything unless you can trade him for something else.

You could pick up 20 different players over that time with that roster spot, possibly trading those players a few times and actually get something out of it. Even though it's not something you hold on to for long.
You bring up a tangent concept that I've always really liked the idea of.

Trade your worst player for whatever draft pick, or draft pick swap-up, you can get.
Pick up best available free agent, who is your new worst player.
Repeat as frequently as possible.
 
Something I think a lot of dynasty players don't think about is opportunity cost.

Having a roster spot tied up on a speculative player like Johnson for 3 years might not ever amount to anything unless you can trade him for something else.

You could pick up 20 different players over that time with that roster spot, possibly trading those players a few times and actually get something out of it. Even though it's not something you hold on to for long.
You bring up a tangent concept that I've always really liked the idea of.

Trade your worst player for whatever draft pick, or draft pick swap-up, you can get.
Pick up best available free agent, who is your new worst player.
Repeat as frequently as possible.
Until your league mates respond, "Why in the world would I give u any picks for someone I also could have picked up for free.". Ha ha
 
Something I think a lot of dynasty players don't think about is opportunity cost.

Having a roster spot tied up on a speculative player like Johnson for 3 years might not ever amount to anything unless you can trade him for something else.

You could pick up 20 different players over that time with that roster spot, possibly trading those players a few times and actually get something out of it. Even though it's not something you hold on to for long.
You bring up a tangent concept that I've always really liked the idea of.

Trade your worst player for whatever draft pick, or draft pick swap-up, you can get.
Pick up best available free agent, who is your new worst player.
Repeat as frequently as possible.
Until your league mates respond, "Why in the world would I give u any picks for someone I also could have picked up for free.". Ha ha
😄 Until you respond, "But I picked him up, you didn't. Now tell me this guy isn't worth your third-round pick."

ETA: Of course, packaging your two worst players for a pick is an option as well. Or your two worst players for a player you deem slightly more valuable + pick up free agent, repeat.
 
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Something I think a lot of dynasty players don't think about is opportunity cost.

Having a roster spot tied up on a speculative player like Johnson for 3 years might not ever amount to anything unless you can trade him for something else.

You could pick up 20 different players over that time with that roster spot, possibly trading those players a few times and actually get something out of it. Even though it's not something you hold on to for long.
You bring up a tangent concept that I've always really liked the idea of.

Trade your worst player for whatever draft pick, or draft pick swap-up, you can get.
Pick up best available free agent, who is your new worst player.
Repeat as frequently as possible.
Until your league mates respond, "Why in the world would I give u any picks for someone I also could have picked up for free.". Ha ha
😄 Until you respond, "But I picked him up, you didn't. Now tell me this guy isn't worth your third-round pick."

ETA: Of course, packaging your two worst players for a pick is an option as well. Or your two worst players for a player you deem slightly more valuable + pick up free agent, repeat.
Not to totally derail thread, but one of most satisfying moves is to pick someone up of waivers. Let them increase value for two weeks then dump em.

Back on thread. Roschon won't get a chance to be relevant this year. Next year? Maybe. Foreman is gone and Herbert hasn't exactly locked anything up
 
Something I think a lot of dynasty players don't think about is opportunity cost.

Having a roster spot tied up on a speculative player like Johnson for 3 years might not ever amount to anything unless you can trade him for something else.

You could pick up 20 different players over that time with that roster spot, possibly trading those players a few times and actually get something out of it. Even though it's not something you hold on to for long.
You bring up a tangent concept that I've always really liked the idea of.

Trade your worst player for whatever draft pick, or draft pick swap-up, you can get.
Pick up best available free agent, who is your new worst player.
Repeat as frequently as possible.
Until your league mates respond, "Why in the world would I give u any picks for someone I also could have picked up for free.". Ha ha
That's fair.

You usually have to wait awhile for whoever you picked up to become interesting first before dangling them. :-)
 
Anyone else on these boards remember the Misfits leagues and when they went under?
Yes. Run by ravnzfan. I got my money finally but some others did not.
I am glad you got your money back.

I am angry that some did not.

What's worse is all the time people have invested into their dynasty teams being lost.

I care about people who play dynasty and I do not want to see their commitment to it ruined by unscrupulous commissioners screwing them over.

I still feel dirty about being even remotely connected to a site that shamelessly shilled for Unluckys scam right up to the last minute.

I have lost all respect for the person who was doing this as well as other underhanded things in how they treat people, including me, and they have not shown any remorse for their actions. Still self promoting their wares in dynasty circles to this day.

I hope they have some comeuppance at some point for this.

I take it personal because they did damage to a community I love. And continue to prey on this community if they can. I have heard things I cannot forget and I don't have enough middle fingers for them.

The concept of phenoms was interesting because you could climb the ladder if you did well over time. But I never involved myself with it because of the obvious risks of such a pyramid scheme.
 
The concept of phenoms was interesting because you could climb the ladder if you did well over time. But I never involved myself with it because of the obvious risks of such a pyramid scheme.
I wasn't and am not well-informed on that scheme and I'd like to know how it worked. All I know is that a lot of people got harmed.
 
The concept of phenoms was interesting because you could climb the ladder if you did well over time. But I never involved myself with it because of the obvious risks of such a pyramid scheme.
I wasn't and am not well-informed on that scheme and I'd like to know how it worked. All I know is that a lot of people got harmed.
Well the interesting and alluring part of the set up was many leagues in a pyramid where teams who won championship would ascend to the next higher bracket, with the worst teams being relegated down to lower brackets.

That's all well and good, a additional layer of competition. I am uncertain how rosters were managed for teams going up and down though.

As such it attracted many players and all league dues were put in Unluckys hands which he used to gamble on other games and eventually lost the entire pot. So no one got paid out and the pyramid crumbled.
 
Something I think a lot of dynasty players don't think about is opportunity cost.

Having a roster spot tied up on a speculative player like Johnson for 3 years might not ever amount to anything unless you can trade him for something else.

You could pick up 20 different players over that time with that roster spot, possibly trading those players a few times and actually get something out of it. Even though it's not something you hold on to for long.
I think a lot of dynasty players think about it. Where did 3-years come up? He's a rookie who has played half a season. If you can trade him for good value or add him into a piece of course you make the deal.

Like I said, every league is different. Many dynasty leagues the waivers are extremely thin. No one is dropping Rochon in these leagues. Turning and churning players is a good idea if you can build value. I also have no issues re-rolling players for pick(s) but I do think many times people move off players too early.

Speaking of dynasty - people are so impatient these days. Take advantage of these people and keep building value.
 
He’s on my waiver wire what do you bears followers think about him ROY and for dynasty? Will he build value the rest of the year where maybe I could start him before the end of this season? Will he gain value the rest of the season so I can trade him at a profit this off-season? I loved him this summer but he hasn’t inspired me much actually watching him play the few times I’ve seen him this season
 
He’s on my waiver wire what do you bears followers think about him ROY and for dynasty? Will he build value the rest of the year where maybe I could start him before the end of this season? Will he gain value the rest of the season so I can trade him at a profit this off-season? I loved him this summer but he hasn’t inspired me much actually watching him play the few times I’ve seen him this season
He should not be on any waiver wire in any dynasty league imo. I’d pick em up asap.
 
Might be the hardest backfield to figure out. Last week felt like a Herbert game but being out carried 10 to 6 by Roschon tells us we have no idea what's going on. Will all three be active this week? Who knows. I think if I had to roster one I'm picking the rookie. Maybe they decide to see what they got? Once again who knows. Chicago reminds me of the Carolina backfield. Lots of okay guys but zero lead guys. Hopeful rbs you keep waiting to hit, but then at the end of the year none of them do. Guys you've rostered all season for no reason. Ha ha
 
An obvious hold in dynasty, but you're going to have to be patient with him. For at least 2 or 3 years probably.
 
An obvious hold in dynasty, but you're going to have to be patient with him. For at least 2 or 3 years probably.
I don't think he'll get 2 or 3 years, not with the way teams churn through RBs these days. We'll probably know next year whether he's a thing or just another guy that gets forgotten. The only angle is that there stands a reasonable chance of a new coaching regime next year - who knows whether the new regime will prefer Herbert, Roschon, or their own guy. I assume Foreman will move on in free agency.
 
An obvious hold in dynasty, but you're going to have to be patient with him. For at least 2 or 3 years probably.
I don't think he'll get 2 or 3 years, not with the way teams churn through RBs these days. We'll probably know next year whether he's a thing or just another guy that gets forgotten. The only angle is that there stands a reasonable chance of a new coaching regime next year - who knows whether the new regime will prefer Herbert, Roschon, or their own guy. I assume Foreman will move on in free agency.
I think they retain Eberflus. Also, veering off topic, they should consider trading the #1 pick for a kings ransom and keep Fields. Or draft Marvin Harrison jr. #1 (because the Cardinals will). What Fields needs is better weapons opposite of DJ Moore. If you look at all, or most, of the good QBs in the league, they have good weapons. If they fire Eberflus and draft Caleb Williams, he will be in the same boat as other QBs who don't have the same coaches in year two of being in the league (see Bryce Young). That can't be good for their development.
 
All 3 CHI RB were dropped in my league sort of surprised but then again with who knows who to start perhaps not. Johnson might be the one to pick up
 
I do believe that is Foreman is back healthy, he's the back to own here.
Guess we will see.
Foreman taking hand-offs from Fields at practice

Who knows?
Yeah, I'm not arguing with you at all. Foreman has looked good. But he probably isn't with the team next year and you have to think they may want to get more looks at Roschon. ??

To an extent I agree with you, but more importantly I think they want to evaluate Fields and see what they have there. If I were the coach, I’d probably use Foreman as the early down hammer and bring in Roschon on passing downs and hurry up offense, and just phase out Herbert at this point.
 

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