RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (2 Viewers)

[Max Power]

RB coach David Walker fired.

Which I find kind of hilarious.

What's a guy to do? K. Herbert injured, R. Johnson two week concussion, D. Foreman comes back from the dead for a game, D. Evans a nobody.

Odd.

Wonder if this means R. Johnson is set free.

Dont think it was football related. I read something about HR being involved.

Yep. Fired over his behavior in the workplace. So Bears.

 

[FantasyGuru24]

The coaches get more action than the players

 

[Big Nate]

Anyone rolling with him this week? It’s prolly his last shot to try and take the job.

I like Roschon but I can't start him this week - not when it has been a 3-way rotation with all of them getting about 30% of the snaps.

In dynasty I like Roschon but for now he is a hold in redraft if you can manage the roster spot. Evans got too much work last week for my liking and Foreman is still a good RB who can grind out the yards if given the workload.

 

[Drake Hater]

Evans looked more dynamic last week. I ended up dropping Roschon in redraft as I had other roster needs. Herbert coming back sooner than later and I'm not sure the volume will be there going forward.

 

[greenmountaingoat]

I traded Perine (ha) for him in redraft hoping to have a guy to plug and play if Herbert ever got injured. The concussion was just horrible timing. So I ran foreman out there two weeks ago which was awesome even though I lost. Now I'm sitting here with two roster spots locked up on these guys and will have nada to show for it. I benched them both last week for Palmer- a distinction without a difference.

Screw it, dropped Foreman for Conner. Should probably drop Roschon for Charbs too.

 

[OU#1]

 

[Ilov80s]

It looks a lot like a 4th round draft pick who was a career college backup.

 

[Biabreakable]

It looks a lot like a 4th round draft pick who was a career college backup.

Sometimes these players can be good but yeah I don't think this guy has it.

 

[rockaction]

I just traded him in dynasty so I watched him again with interest today. He popped a little on a catch and run or two. There have been worse backs handed starting jobs. And it's only his first year. Guys change their bodies after their first year in the pros to suit themselves to the pro game. Give him a little time here. I don't necessarily believe in the talent, but stranger things have happened.

 

[Max Power]

Anyone selling in Dynasty? and for what?

I'll buy when the price gets low enough. I still like the talent, but his upside is limited.

 

[icehouse]

Might be time to cut bait

Anyone selling in Dynasty? and for what?

I'll buy when the price gets low enough. I still like the talent, but his upside is limited.

I can’t get anyone to offer anything Thinking of dropping him for Keaton Mitchell.

 

[zamboni]

I just traded him in dynasty so I watched him again with interest today. He popped a little on a catch and run or two. There have been worse backs handed starting jobs. And it's only his first year. Guys change their bodies after their first year in the pros to suit themselves to the pro game. Give him a little time here. I don't necessarily believe in the talent, but stranger things have happened.

Plus next year things could be much different if there is a new coaching regime.

 

[kyoun1e]

It's amazing how the fantasy community got it completely wrong on this guy.

Breakout, breakout, breakout...nothing.

 

[BobbyLayne]

It's amazing how the fantasy community got it completely wrong on this guy.

Breakout, breakout, breakout...nothing.

Did they? Before the brain injury he looked dynamic on most of his touches.

• lousy scheme (their OC is def bottom quartile)
• lousy line
• game scripts

Dude had pretty limited opportunities. I’m sticking a pin in this one for redraft. Not happening this year (likely) but he’s primed to be a post-hype sleeper in a year or two. He’s talented but the circumstances & events as they unfolded made for a really bad situation. Doesn’t mean it won’t click fir him down the road.

 

[rockaction]

Before the brain injury he looked dynamic on most of his touches

Did he? I watched and thought he looked merely adequate. Too much hesitation for a body that big. Too many east-west moves, not enough north-south. He needs to learn how to get to the hole and hit it with speed or he's in trouble.

But you're right. He could very well learn that and it clicks down the road for him.

The coaching stinks.
The line stinks.
The game scripts stink.

It's a tough evaluation as of now.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Did he? I watched and thought he looked merely adequate. Too much hesitation for a body that big. Too many east-west moves, not enough north-south.

In the last two games, agreed. Watch GB, at TB, at KC - not the same player as he is now.

Watch the college tape. Looks like the guy we saw in September.

 

[zamboni]

It's amazing how the fantasy community got it completely wrong on this guy.

It's possible, not unlike Sean Tucker, Tank Bigsby, etc.

But every situation is different - sometimes it's not all on the player, but the environment. Time will tell.

 

[rockaction]

Watch the college tape. Looks like the guy we saw in September.

I'm not trying to be contrarian, BL, but I was never really that impressed. I thought he lacked burst from a standstill. I think his broad and vert bears that out. But I'm a testing guy. We'll see if he proves me wrong. I was ready to move on in dynasty once I got a nibble or could throw him in as a piece.

I mean, I didn't totally want to, but it wasn't that hard to get me to part with him.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I mean, I didn't totally want to, but it wasn't that hard to get me to part with him.

In redraft I dropped for a 3rd DST but my team is stacked, no reason to be patient (I’m a little manic when it comes to roster mgt)

 

[Max Power]

Did he? I watched and thought he looked merely adequate. Too much hesitation for a body that big. Too many east-west moves, not enough north-south.

In the last two games, agreed. Watch GB, at TB, at KC - not the same player as he is now.

Watch the college tape. Looks like the guy we saw in September.

He looked good in camp and had some high praise from teammates. I totally agree about his first three games. I thought it would only be a matter of time until he took over the lead role at that rate. Ran hard, ran with power and played well in the passing game, but he hasn't played well since the concussion.

I still believe that he is the most well rounded of the Bears RBs. He is the best pass blocker, might be the best receiving back as well. Forman is a better true runner and Herbert is more explosive. Roshon is also a very good special teams player. Something Herbert and Forman don't do. All that to say the versatility he offers means he is still going to see the field regularly.

This staff wants to use multiple running backs and I can see them all getting an equal share once Herbert is cleared, which really kills all threes value at once.

 

[Biabreakable]

I agree he is a tough evaluation because the supporting cast around him stinks.

However he may continue to have poor supporting cast around him for the foreseeable future.

If the Bears do make wholesale changes, with the GM, coaches ect. that doesn't mean those changes will have a net positive effect, or if they do how long it will take for those changes to help Johnson.

Also no way of knowing if Johnson won't also be a part of those changes or not.

The Bears are not that invested in him. He could easily be replaced by another player who fits the direction the teams wants to go in next.

He has had chances to pop and it hasn't happened.

Could he really improve with some seasoning? Of course. I expect most rookies to take a big step forward in their 2nd season.

I haven't spent a lot of time evaluating him or any of the 2023 rookies the way I usually have in the past. So this makes my opinion less valuable on the subject than it could be. However my judgement is also not clouded by these preconceived notions about these players either, which I think has some value. I have no takes to be locked to here.

From what time I have put into evaluating him and other rookies after the regular season started, I am not impressed. I just don't see much reason to get excited about him.

There are other rookies from 2023 who do impress me. Johnson is not one of them.

 

[Football Jones]

This is one guy that I just never saw it. Typically, when the SP is on somebody, I at least see a glimpse of what people are talking about.

Maybe it was simply because he never got a chance in college & there was kind of a potential high ceiling narrative. That said, the story isn’t written yet, but it doesn’t look good.

For the record, my standard is high. When I take a RB in the top 20 or so of a rookie draft, I’m looking for at least the potential to be a feature back. If I don’t see it, I pass. Because of the dynamics of the position, RBs need to typically be really good not to be in a heavy RBBC & especially if they’re going to have staying power.

 

[zamboni]

Because of the dynamics of the position, RBs need to typically be really good not to be in a heavy RBBC & especially if they’re going to have staying power.

So true - not just potentially for Roschon, but for just about any RB. It's become a more and more fungible position in that if you don't hit right away, you often get cast aside for the next man up.

 

[eighsse2]

I'm going to be honest, I do zero scouting. I watch the Buckeyes. That's about it. I see some stat lines from other college games. All my knowledge is based on rankings, articles, etc. And all I remember about the guy is hearing things like "Roschon would be one of the best, if not the best, RB in the class if not for Bijan being in his way. He does everything well."

 

[Max Power]

He has had chances to pop and it hasn't happened.

I appreciate the thoughts. I'm not sold on Roschon sticking, but I have seen the flash. Granted all before he got hurt, but for context as a rookie he started out the season on 17 carries for 90 yards and a TD during a three game stretch the offense couldn't do anything. Added another 10 receptions for 56 yards in that time as well.

Little to show for it since, so that is a concern, but enough for me to think he can bounce back.

 

[Biabreakable]

He has had chances to pop and it hasn't happened.

I appreciate the thoughts. I'm not sold on Roschon sticking, but I have seen the flash. Granted all before he got hurt, but for context as a rookie he started out the season on 17 carries for 90 yards and a TD during a three game stretch the offense couldn't do anything. Added another 10 receptions for 56 yards in that time as well.

Little to show for it since, so that is a concern, but enough for me to think he can bounce back.

OK I did not see those games so for sure I take your word for it.

 

[JohnnyU]

Dynasty is a marathon, not a sprint. Redraft, what have you done for me in the last 5 minutes.

 

[Weebs210]

I think he missed his chance this year unfortunately. Getting injured for multiple weeks right when Herbert went down is rough. Missed a cupcake match up against the raiders. Still a hold in dynasty but probably a cut in redraft and would need an injury or two again to get enough touches.

 

[Rookiefever]

This is one guy that I just never saw it. Typically, when the SP is on somebody, I at least see a glimpse of what people are talking about.

Maybe it was simply because he never got a chance in college & there was kind of a potential high ceiling narrative. That said, the story isn’t written yet, but it doesn’t look good.

For the record, my standard is high. When I take a RB in the top 20 or so of a rookie draft, I’m looking for at least the potential to be a feature back. If I don’t see it, I pass. Because of the dynamics of the position, RBs need to typically be really good not to be in a heavy RBBC & especially if they’re going to have staying power.

I’m just curious to hear your point of view here. In college he had great tackle breaking ability good receiving threat and good to very good pass blocking. Along with the bears rb room id day he had a great chance to become a feature back. What made you think he had a small chance?

 

[kyoun1e]

Window was open for him, but then the concussion, then D. Foreman performing, and now K. Herbert activated off of IR.

Value goes poof.

 

[Football Jones]

This is one guy that I just never saw it. Typically, when the SP is on somebody, I at least see a glimpse of what people are talking about.

Maybe it was simply because he never got a chance in college & there was kind of a potential high ceiling narrative. That said, the story isn’t written yet, but it doesn’t look good.

For the record, my standard is high. When I take a RB in the top 20 or so of a rookie draft, I’m looking for at least the potential to be a feature back. If I don’t see it, I pass. Because of the dynamics of the position, RBs need to typically be really good not to be in a heavy RBBC & especially if they’re going to have staying power.

I’m just curious to hear your point of view here. In college he had great tackle breaking ability good receiving threat and good to very good pass blocking. Along with the bears rb room id day he had a great chance to become a feature back. What made you think he had a small chance?

I’d have to go back & watch again, but I did “scout” him. Mainly, the eyeball test along with the other standard metrics (athletic testing, etc.).

I didn’t see a possible feature back in Roschon & essentially came away with the opinion that I wasn’t interested in spending a pick on him around his ADP.

 

[Rookiefever]

This is one guy that I just never saw it. Typically, when the SP is on somebody, I at least see a glimpse of what people are talking about.

Maybe it was simply because he never got a chance in college & there was kind of a potential high ceiling narrative. That said, the story isn’t written yet, but it doesn’t look good.

For the record, my standard is high. When I take a RB in the top 20 or so of a rookie draft, I’m looking for at least the potential to be a feature back. If I don’t see it, I pass. Because of the dynamics of the position, RBs need to typically be really good not to be in a heavy RBBC & especially if they’re going to have staying power.

I’m just curious to hear your point of view here. In college he had great tackle breaking ability good receiving threat and good to very good pass blocking. Along with the bears rb room id day he had a great chance to become a feature back. What made you think he had a small chance?

I’d have to go back & watch again, but I did “scout” him. Mainly, the eyeball test along with the other standard metrics (athletic testing, etc.).

I didn’t see a possible feature back in Roschon & essentially came away with the opinion that I wasn’t interested in spending a pick on him around his ADP.

Fair enough. If you dig back into it lmk.

 

[FairWarning]

It's amazing how the fantasy community got it completely wrong on this guy.

Breakout, breakout, breakout...nothing.

Did they? Before the brain injury he looked dynamic on most of his touches.

• lousy scheme (their OC is def bottom quartile)
• lousy line
• game scripts

Dude had pretty limited opportunities. I’m sticking a pin in this one for redraft. Not happening this year (likely) but he’s primed to be a post-hype sleeper in a year or two. He’s talented but the circumstances & events as they unfolded made for a really bad situation. Doesn’t mean it won’t click fir him down the road.

unfortunately bad teams will have bad game scripts.

 

[JohnnyU]

This is one guy that I just never saw it. Typically, when the SP is on somebody, I at least see a glimpse of what people are talking about.

Maybe it was simply because he never got a chance in college & there was kind of a potential high ceiling narrative. That said, the story isn’t written yet, but it doesn’t look good.

For the record, my standard is high. When I take a RB in the top 20 or so of a rookie draft, I’m looking for at least the potential to be a feature back. If I don’t see it, I pass. Because of the dynamics of the position, RBs need to typically be really good not to be in a heavy RBBC & especially if they’re going to have staying power.

I’m just curious to hear your point of view here. In college he had great tackle breaking ability good receiving threat and good to very good pass blocking. Along with the bears rb room id day he had a great chance to become a feature back. What made you think he had a small chance?

I’d have to go back & watch again, but I did “scout” him. Mainly, the eyeball test along with the other standard metrics (athletic testing, etc.).

I didn’t see a possible feature back in Roschon & essentially came away with the opinion that I wasn’t interested in spending a pick on him around his ADP.

You may be right, or it could be premature Roschonalation. Those who drafted Johnson in dynasty must understand that his time may not have been immediate. I was hoping he would be the choice over Herbert, but he isn't, nor is he the choice over Foreman, but that is right now. Things change quickly in FF and Foreman may not even be on the team in 2024 for all I know. A lot of rookies don't get their chance right away and I think that is an issue for many with the microwave mentality. It's a dangerous mentality in the dynasty formats. I understand it for redraft however. With the exception of very few, isn't it best to avoid rookies in redraft?

 

[TartanLion]

Dropping in dynasty seems like madness. Need to be more patient with a player that had reasonable draft capital, is in a ****ty current situation and got a very badly timed concussion whereby he did look better before that occurred. Dropping Kendre as well ?!! No.

These days imo you try to consolidate a small clutch group of top end WRs first and foremost ( and high end QB talent if SF ). If you have rare top line RBs then okay great but at the very least you need to be holding as many as possible numerically and across the board from all different teams. Diversify the portfolio. Roschon is a share that you wait until at least next seasons to see if it matures. By all means trade him if you want to, but dropping seems very premature

 

[Weebs210]

Dropping in dynasty seems like madness. Need to be more patient with a player that had reasonable draft capital, is in a ****ty current situation and got a very badly timed concussion whereby he did look better before that occurred. Dropping Kendre as well ?!! No.

These days imo you try to consolidate a small clutch group of top end WRs first and foremost ( and high end QB talent if SF ). If you have rare top line RBs then okay great but at the very least you need to be holding as many as possible numerically and across the board from all different teams. Diversify the portfolio. Roschon is a share that you wait until at least next seasons to see if it matures. By all means trade him if you want to, but dropping seems very premature

Pretty much this. My bench in dynasty is like 10 rbs, 3 wrs, 1 QB, 1 TE. My taxi is 3 rbs and 1 wr. Not interested in holding roster clogging wrs who will never play for me. Roschon is a perfect bench RB or better yet taxi RB.

 

[Football Jones]

This is one guy that I just never saw it. Typically, when the SP is on somebody, I at least see a glimpse of what people are talking about.

Maybe it was simply because he never got a chance in college & there was kind of a potential high ceiling narrative. That said, the story isn’t written yet, but it doesn’t look good.

For the record, my standard is high. When I take a RB in the top 20 or so of a rookie draft, I’m looking for at least the potential to be a feature back. If I don’t see it, I pass. Because of the dynamics of the position, RBs need to typically be really good not to be in a heavy RBBC & especially if they’re going to have staying power.

I’m just curious to hear your point of view here. In college he had great tackle breaking ability good receiving threat and good to very good pass blocking. Along with the bears rb room id day he had a great chance to become a feature back. What made you think he had a small chance?

I’d have to go back & watch again, but I did “scout” him. Mainly, the eyeball test along with the other standard metrics (athletic testing, etc.).

I didn’t see a possible feature back in Roschon & essentially came away with the opinion that I wasn’t interested in spending a pick on him around his ADP.

You may be right, or it could be premature Roschonalation. Those who drafted Johnson in dynasty must understand that his time may not have been immediate. I was hoping he would be the choice over Herbert, but he isn't, nor is he the choice over Foreman, but that is right now. Things change quickly in FF and Foreman may not even be on the team in 2024 for all I know. A lot of rookies don't get their chance right away and I think that is an issue for many with the microwave mentality. It's a dangerous mentality in the dynasty formats. I understand it for redraft however. With the exception of very few, isn't it best to avoid rookies in redraft?

Roschonalation…good one, lol.

I’ve been around the dynasty game a long time & understand the patience needed. That said, your evaluations dictate your roster. Otherwise, you’re just hopping on every hype train that comes along.

The story isn’t written yet, but because of the dynamics of the position, I’m very picky about which RBs I use a valuable draft slot on. If he falls far enough sure, throw a dart, but that wasn’t going to be the case with Roschon.

 

[JohnnyU]

This is one guy that I just never saw it. Typically, when the SP is on somebody, I at least see a glimpse of what people are talking about.

Maybe it was simply because he never got a chance in college & there was kind of a potential high ceiling narrative. That said, the story isn’t written yet, but it doesn’t look good.

For the record, my standard is high. When I take a RB in the top 20 or so of a rookie draft, I’m looking for at least the potential to be a feature back. If I don’t see it, I pass. Because of the dynamics of the position, RBs need to typically be really good not to be in a heavy RBBC & especially if they’re going to have staying power.

I’m just curious to hear your point of view here. In college he had great tackle breaking ability good receiving threat and good to very good pass blocking. Along with the bears rb room id day he had a great chance to become a feature back. What made you think he had a small chance?

I’d have to go back & watch again, but I did “scout” him. Mainly, the eyeball test along with the other standard metrics (athletic testing, etc.).

I didn’t see a possible feature back in Roschon & essentially came away with the opinion that I wasn’t interested in spending a pick on him around his ADP.

You may be right, or it could be premature Roschonalation. Those who drafted Johnson in dynasty must understand that his time may not have been immediate. I was hoping he would be the choice over Herbert, but he isn't, nor is he the choice over Foreman, but that is right now. Things change quickly in FF and Foreman may not even be on the team in 2024 for all I know. A lot of rookies don't get their chance right away and I think that is an issue for many with the microwave mentality. It's a dangerous mentality in the dynasty formats. I understand it for redraft however. With the exception of very few, isn't it best to avoid rookies in redraft?

Roschonalation…good one, lol.

I’ve been around the dynasty game a long time & understand the patience needed. That said, your evaluations dictate your roster. Otherwise, you’re just hopping on every hype train that comes along.

The story isn’t written yet, but because of the dynamics of the position, I’m very picky about which RBs I use a valuable draft slot on. If he falls far enough sure, throw a dart, but that wasn’t going to be the case with Roschon.

Oh, I’m not so sure about that. In my non-DEVY dynasty leagues he went 2.04, 2.09, 2.11 and 1.12.

 

[Football Jones]

This is one guy that I just never saw it. Typically, when the SP is on somebody, I at least see a glimpse of what people are talking about.

Maybe it was simply because he never got a chance in college & there was kind of a potential high ceiling narrative. That said, the story isn’t written yet, but it doesn’t look good.

For the record, my standard is high. When I take a RB in the top 20 or so of a rookie draft, I’m looking for at least the potential to be a feature back. If I don’t see it, I pass. Because of the dynamics of the position, RBs need to typically be really good not to be in a heavy RBBC & especially if they’re going to have staying power.

I’m just curious to hear your point of view here. In college he had great tackle breaking ability good receiving threat and good to very good pass blocking. Along with the bears rb room id day he had a great chance to become a feature back. What made you think he had a small chance?

I’d have to go back & watch again, but I did “scout” him. Mainly, the eyeball test along with the other standard metrics (athletic testing, etc.).

I didn’t see a possible feature back in Roschon & essentially came away with the opinion that I wasn’t interested in spending a pick on him around his ADP.

You may be right, or it could be premature Roschonalation. Those who drafted Johnson in dynasty must understand that his time may not have been immediate. I was hoping he would be the choice over Herbert, but he isn't, nor is he the choice over Foreman, but that is right now. Things change quickly in FF and Foreman may not even be on the team in 2024 for all I know. A lot of rookies don't get their chance right away and I think that is an issue for many with the microwave mentality. It's a dangerous mentality in the dynasty formats. I understand it for redraft however. With the exception of very few, isn't it best to avoid rookies in redraft?

Roschonalation…good one, lol.

I’ve been around the dynasty game a long time & understand the patience needed. That said, your evaluations dictate your roster. Otherwise, you’re just hopping on every hype train that comes along.

The story isn’t written yet, but because of the dynamics of the position, I’m very picky about which RBs I use a valuable draft slot on. If he falls far enough sure, throw a dart, but that wasn’t going to be the case with Roschon.

Oh, I’m sure about that. In my non-DEVY dynasty leagues he went 2.04, 2.09, 2.11 and 1.12.

My situation is different (non-PPR league, taken with the 16th pick). PPR wouldn’t have made a difference for me, though.

I never take a RB in the top-20 or so who I feel has no chance of being a feature back with any kind of staying power (reasons given earlier in the thread). I’m not sure at what point I would’ve taken Roschon as a dart, but it simply wasn’t going to happen in my league.

 

[Max Power]

I was more than willing to take Roschon after #15 overall in standard rookie drafts last year. There was a tier drop around #8, then another one about 6 picks later. Everything after that was basically dart throws.

 

[Biabreakable]

As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.

For a player like him I would have preferred to trade the pick I would have used on him rather than draft him with a 3 year commitment in mind.

I have played in some leagues with very deep rosters and sure there is a place for him in those where there is nothing in free agency to add that's better. But in more average 20 roster spot leagues I don't really consider him much above replacement level if that, and I prefer to churn the last 4 roster spots on speculative free agents unless my roster is too stacked to do so. If it is stacked then I try to do consolidation trades to free up those spots if I can or trade for future picks not tying those roster spots up.

 

[zamboni]

As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.

Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.

 

[eighsse2]

As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.

Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.

If "move off" means drop or sell for peanuts, then I agree. But I have no qualms with moving rookies who haven't performed or had a chance yet, even immediately after drafting them. I had an offer of a 2024 first and second for Roschon before the season started. Should have taken it. Considered it.

Did end up using Roschon, Spears, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston to get Gibbs though.

 

[Weebs210]

As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.

Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.

If "move off" means drop or sell for peanuts, then I agree. But I have no qualms with moving rookies who haven't performed or had a chance yet, even immediately after drafting them. I had an offer of a 2024 first and second for Roschon before the season started. Should have taken it. Considered it.

Did end up using Roschon, Spears, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston to get Gibbs though.

Damn I would have jumped on a 2024 first and a second for him even as a truther.

 

[eighsse2]

As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.

Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.

If "move off" means drop or sell for peanuts, then I agree. But I have no qualms with moving rookies who haven't performed or had a chance yet, even immediately after drafting them. I had an offer of a 2024 first and second for Roschon before the season started. Should have taken it. Considered it.

Did end up using Roschon, Spears, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston to get Gibbs though.

Damn I would have jumped on a 2024 first and a second for him even as a truther.

I know, I was stupid, but RB's are treated like rubies in our league ... And I thought his picks would be late, they're looking more mid or "anywhere" now.

 

[Biabreakable]

As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.

Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.

If "move off" means drop or sell for peanuts, then I agree. But I have no qualms with moving rookies who haven't performed or had a chance yet, even immediately after drafting them. I had an offer of a 2024 first and second for Roschon before the season started. Should have taken it. Considered it.

Did end up using Roschon, Spears, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston to get Gibbs though.

Damn I would have jumped on a 2024 first and a second for him even as a truther.

I know, I was stupid, but RB's are treated like rubies in our league ... And I thought his picks would be late, they're looking more mid or "anywhere" now.

I tend to not think too much about where the opponents picks might end up unless they have an obviously weak team.

You can always trade those picks at another time for players or other picks.

The thing is to try to use the time value discount in your favor.

You sell current season picks when its getting closer to the draft or even during the draft for picks the following season with a sweetener (like a 3rd round pick) added in each time to grind value that way.

Then bundle picks together to upgrade them later on.

If your league highly values RB then of course use that to your advantage. Be the owner who is alway willing to trade RB away so your competitors keep coming to you to buy them.

Then pick up new RB prospects to sell with the freed up roster spots. Rinse and repeat.

Of course you will lose trades sometimes. But doing that just makes opponents want to trade with you more in future.

When you do use picks on rookie players, be very specifically selective about it. Otherwise sell.

 

[massraider]

You sell current season picks when its getting closer to the draft or even during the draft for picks the following season with a sweetener (like a 3rd round pick) added in each time to grind value that way.

Yeah, I wanna trade FOR picks during the season, and trade my picks away right after the combine, when we all fall in love.

 

[eighsse2]

As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.

Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.

If "move off" means drop or sell for peanuts, then I agree. But I have no qualms with moving rookies who haven't performed or had a chance yet, even immediately after drafting them. I had an offer of a 2024 first and second for Roschon before the season started. Should have taken it. Considered it.

Did end up using Roschon, Spears, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston to get Gibbs though.

Damn I would have jumped on a 2024 first and a second for him even as a truther.

I know, I was stupid, but RB's are treated like rubies in our league ... And I thought his picks would be late, they're looking more mid or "anywhere" now.

I tend to not think too much about where the opponents picks might end up unless they have an obviously weak team.

You can always trade those picks at another time for players or other picks.

The thing is to try to use the time value discount in your favor.

You sell current season picks when its getting closer to the draft or even during the draft for picks the following season with a sweetener (like a 3rd round pick) added in each time to grind value that way.

Then bundle picks together to upgrade them later on.

If your league highly values RB then of course use that to your advantage. Be the owner who is alway willing to trade RB away so your competitors keep coming to you to buy them.

Then pick up new RB prospects to sell with the freed up roster spots. Rinse and repeat.

Of course you will lose trades sometimes. But doing that just makes opponents want to trade with you more in future.

When you do use picks on rookie players, be very specifically selective about it. Otherwise sell.

Right on board with basically everything you're saying. I do struggle with what to do about the RB insanity. I want to take advantage of it, but, you also need to have some RB's somehow or another, and they won't be easy to acquire in an injury emergency.

Only thing is with trading picks, our league banned trading future picks more than 1 year out. Which I think is insane, but they voted for it.

 

[Max Power]

I thought Ro looked ok last night. Nothing to write home about. Couple decent touches, but mostly "meh".

He looked more decisive with the ball which was nice to see.

The 5-10 touch range is probably where he is going to be the rest of the year. Without homerun pop or GL work his upside is limited.

 

[JohnnyU]

As a general rule of thumb I give all rookies 3 seasons before moving on from them. When I have done upside rankings for rookies it is with the idea that they can reach that upside by their 3rd season.

I discussed this earlier this year where I may accelerate that time frame to 2 seasons before turning the page but never one.

I know from my research that the rookie season for a RB is usually their worst performing season of the first six seasons of their career on average. For RB who were actually relevant for at least 6 or more games of their careers that is.

I didn't rank rookies this season but if I had I am guessing Johnson would have been a 3rd tier player for me. Which isn't a player I am going to be very committed to holding on to. I don't like the situation he is in with the Bears right now at all and outlook for that improving over the next 3 seasons does not seem good to me either.

Absolutely agree that it's trigger happy to move off of rookies, although I am less patient with RBs after a year because NFL teams tend to be as well. Unless they are high draft picks or have considerable contracts, NFL teams tend to move off them quickly if they don't show a lot in their rookie years.

If "move off" means drop or sell for peanuts, then I agree. But I have no qualms with moving rookies who haven't performed or had a chance yet, even immediately after drafting them. I had an offer of a 2024 first and second for Roschon before the season started. Should have taken it. Considered it.

Did end up using Roschon, Spears, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston to get Gibbs though.

Damn I would have jumped on a 2024 first and a second for him even as a truther.

I know, I was stupid, but RB's are treated like rubies in our league ... And I thought his picks would be late, they're looking more mid or "anywhere" now.

I tend to not think too much about where the opponents picks might end up unless they have an obviously weak team.

You can always trade those picks at another time for players or other picks.

The thing is to try to use the time value discount in your favor.

You sell current season picks when its getting closer to the draft or even during the draft for picks the following season with a sweetener (like a 3rd round pick) added in each time to grind value that way.

Then bundle picks together to upgrade them later on.

If your league highly values RB then of course use that to your advantage. Be the owner who is alway willing to trade RB away so your competitors keep coming to you to buy them.

Then pick up new RB prospects to sell with the freed up roster spots. Rinse and repeat.

Of course you will lose trades sometimes. But doing that just makes opponents want to trade with you more in future.

When you do use picks on rookie players, be very specifically selective about it. Otherwise sell.

Right on board with basically everything you're saying. I do struggle with what to do about the RB insanity. I want to take advantage of it, but, you also need to have some RB's somehow or another, and they won't be easy to acquire in an injury emergency.

Only thing is with trading picks, our league banned trading future picks more than 1 year out. Which I think is insane, but they voted for it.

I agree with it. As a commissioner I find it hard enough finding replacements, let alone those who have gutted their team of picks. One could say make them pay that year’s fees, but what if isn’t 1st round picks? Half for Trading 2nds? A third for trading 3rds?