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RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
I’d take my chances with herbs for a meaningful role (absent an injury) and even then he’s probably more of a fringe rb2-3. I liked roschon going in but this landing spot is going to take patience
Birdie048
Footballguy
How long is KHerbert signed? On his rookie contract? He does not appear as a bell cow but I like his playing style. I think Roschon will carve out some GL touches early and build on his short yardage value while his pass catching prowess makes him valuation PPR formats.
I am not sure where the draft value sits as he is all over the map (1.04 to 3.10 that I have seen recently). I guess mid-2nd is where value starts to pay dividends…
Compared to the other 2023 Rookie RB, he does impress but how much was due to Bijan??
JohnnyU
Footballguy
How does Bijan factor in? They weren’t on the field at the same time, or were they?
Birdie048
Footballguy
There were some early Fall 2022 reports that when Bijan was not on the field, the Texas offense was more "air attack" and less pound the ground running game. If I can dig them up, I can share... no promises.... that was a lifetime ago in FF research. The Def was expecting more passing attempts and the receptions to Roschon were dump-offs instead of WR targets (misleading to his skill). And thus the Def was playing "back more" then 8-in the Box giving him more room, allowing him more ypc than he would get with 8 or 9 in a Box Def stance.
It was reported as a "side effect" of having a talent like Bijan that Roschon looked better than he should.
Not claiming they were "substantial" claims, just statements about his stats.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Couldn't find anything supporting of those claims online, but my Google-fu isn't what it used to be. What I could dig up was snap counts vs rushes. Bijan 1355 snaps with 539 rushes meaning he was handed the ball behind the line about 39% of the time he was on the field. RJ 1206 snaps with 392 rushes meaning he was handed the ball behind the line about 32% of the time he was on the field. Unfortunately, I couldn't find snap counts for individual years, but from what I remember in 2019 (as a freshman) he basically split the backfield with Keontay Ingram (much larger portion of snaps then the time share he was in with Bijan), but that Sam Ellinger rushed the ball more than either of them lol. Meaning if we were to drop out 2019 from RJ's numbers those percentages would be even closer. The stats say Texas played pretty much the same game whether it was Bijan on the field or Roschon. If anything, they were at times more dynamic with Roschon on the field as they would run some wildcat formations due to his experience as a QB all through high school. But in general, it reads that their play calling tendencies didn't change regardless of who was in the backfield, so it's hard to believe defenses would then change their schemes for that difference. Especially when they watch previous weeks tape of Roschon running all over defenses at pretty much the same rate Bijan did.
Would love to see anything you can find that supports what you were saying though. Need something to throw some cold water on my Roschon love before I become the next guy taking him in the middle of the first round lol.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I can find nothing on my key word searches from my history ... I apologize for putting out something without sufficient support or evidence ... Please regard it as "rumor or speculation" at this point. I will add, this was NOT my opinion. I like him too... but I am looking at mid-2nd for him.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
No apology needed! I was def serious I about hoping for something to cool my love for him because realistically he shouldn't be going in the mid to late 1st. As Faust most recent post notes, it will almost assuredly be a time share. And won't come out of one unless he seriously performs way over expectation. Which is just super hard to project considering how limited he was used in college. Also Fields can, and likely will, vulture rushing work in general along with some redzone TDs from the RB group as a whole. His ceiling, even with rose tinted glasses, isn't high enough to be considered a 1st round pick. But I think I'm just so low on a large majority of other guys in this class, that his ideal size (compared with the size of these other WRs/RBs), his decent landing spot (compared with so many horrid landing spots for other top guys) and a sprinkle of positional scarcity has me moving him further up than he should be. I think having Roschon where I do speaks more about the strength of this class than Roschon himself when trying to push my man-crush bias aside lol.
Edit:
Let's frame it like this; while I would very likely pick RJ with a late 1st/early 2nd that I own; I would NOT be trading current players or future picks for the "value" of say pick 1.09-2.03 to take Roschon because IMO his value does not match that pick value as it would be in most other rookie classes.
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ffmail4me
Footballguy
I just took him at 2.9 in a SF dynasty league. I passed on WR#9 or TE #3 to take him because I had a bigger need at RB, but feel fine with it. He has a body built for the NFL, and he's not stuck behind a proven and durable stud RB. Seems like a great dart throw in the middle/late 2nd IMO...
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Not sure quite exactly what you mean
I could certainly see a scenario where Herbert gets 40% and Johnson (especially 3rd down) and Foreman (especially short yardage) each get 30% of the overall work.
In that scenario, I'd see Herbert as an RB3, and Johnson/Foreman as RB4s. Keeping in mind that Fields is likely the leading rusher, and that they should finish 400+ yards ahead of the non-Ravens (and maybe Colts?) in rushing.
ETA: I do think if any RB breaks away from the pack, it'll be Herbert. Maybe his blocking/receiving improve after spending likely the entire offseason on it?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I think Roschon runs away with the job.
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greenmountaingoat
Footballguy
I broke down rushing attempts, rb targets and rushing tds in Seattle earlier today.
Herbert = Walker
Roschon=Charbonnet
Foreman and Fields each eating a piece.
Probably a bigger pie than in Seattle but this backfield is probably an avoid for me. At least until somebody emerges as a clear lead. They all have a shot to be valuable but good luck figuring it out.
On the other hand, rookie running backs do tend to gain steam as the year goes on. I just think the other two guys are not washed. This whole situation pisses me off. Cincy needed a back. Dallas needed a back. Chicago and Seattle. So gross.
Herbert = Walker
Roschon=Charbonnet
Foreman and Fields each eating a piece.
Probably a bigger pie than in Seattle but this backfield is probably an avoid for me. At least until somebody emerges as a clear lead. They all have a shot to be valuable but good luck figuring it out.
On the other hand, rookie running backs do tend to gain steam as the year goes on. I just think the other two guys are not washed. This whole situation pisses me off. Cincy needed a back. Dallas needed a back. Chicago and Seattle. So gross.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
You give Herbert too much credit. Given their skillset, Johnson is head and shoulders over the rest.
Streetduck
Footballguy
Why should we value your opinion then? He said your sleeping on Johnson.Not sure quite exactly what you mean
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I am not sleeping on him. In the drafts I've done, he is going ahead of several WRs drafted ahead of him, including WRs taken in the 2nd round. Maybe the drafts I have been in are outliers but that just seems like a stretch to me for a 4th round RB with a small college sample and a mobile QB.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
I think pass blocking is going to be the biggest factor in the rotation. The vets almost always tend to be better at it than the rookies. I'd expect a 60/40 split with Foreman taking the 1st and 2nd down reps, with Herbert taking most of the 3rd down reps. We'll see what training camp yields, but I wouldn't expect Roschon to be more than a fill in for most of the season. This is all predicated on the idea that Poles is trying to keep his best playmaker (Fields) in 17 games this year.
Boone22
Footballguy
Everything I’ve read says Roschon is excellent at pass blocking. On the other hand, Herbert is apparently not good at pass blocking .
Roschon Johnson NFL Draft 2023: Scouting Report for Chicago Bears' RB
HEIGHT: 6'0" WEIGHT: 219 HAND: 9 5/8" ARM: 32" WINGSPAN: TBD 40-YARD DASH: 4.58 3-CONE: N/A SHUTTLE: N/A VERTICAL: 31.5" BROAD: 10'2" POSITIVES — Good…
bleacherreport.com
And this:
If all the starting running back needed to do was carry the ball, then it would be easy to plug Herbert in as starter every week ahead or Montgomery or just move on from their current starter.
However, there's more to the game. There is receiving and pass blocking, and Montgomery excels at both while Herbert hasn't been as good of a blocker and has struggled in the passing game. Having a back who can do all three makes the Bears offense less predictable.
From this link:
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InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Which is why Poles didn't feel comfortable running with Herbert as the 3 down back. I think the eventual rotation will favor Foreman and Rochon once the rookie gets up to playing speed. A lot of it depends on how well Rochon does in training camp and if they can trust him as a rookie protecting Fields.Everything I’ve read says Roschon is excellent at pass blocking. On the other hand, Herbert is apparently not good at pass blocking .
Roschon Johnson NFL Draft 2023: Scouting Report for Chicago Bears' RB
HEIGHT: 6'0" WEIGHT: 219 HAND: 9 5/8" ARM: 32" WINGSPAN: TBD 40-YARD DASH: 4.58 3-CONE: N/A SHUTTLE: N/A VERTICAL: 31.5" BROAD: 10'2" POSITIVES — Good…
And this:
If all the starting running back needed to do was carry the ball, then it would be easy to plug Herbert in as starter every week ahead or Montgomery or just move on from their current starter.
However, there's more to the game. There is receiving and pass blocking, and Montgomery excels at both while Herbert hasn't been as good of a blocker and has struggled in the passing game. Having a back who can do all three makes the Bears offense less predictable.
From this link:
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Well, his pass blocking in college was outstanding. Something Herbert struggles with.Which is why Poles didn't feel comfortable running with Herbert as the 3 down back. I think the eventual rotation will favor Foreman and Rochon once the rookie gets up to playing speed. A lot of it depends on how well Rochon does in training camp and if they can trust him as a rookie protecting Fields.Everything I’ve read says Roschon is excellent at pass blocking. On the other hand, Herbert is apparently not good at pass blocking .
Roschon Johnson NFL Draft 2023: Scouting Report for Chicago Bears' RB
HEIGHT: 6'0" WEIGHT: 219 HAND: 9 5/8" ARM: 32" WINGSPAN: TBD 40-YARD DASH: 4.58 3-CONE: N/A SHUTTLE: N/A VERTICAL: 31.5" BROAD: 10'2" POSITIVES — Good…
And this:
If all the starting running back needed to do was carry the ball, then it would be easy to plug Herbert in as starter every week ahead or Montgomery or just move on from their current starter.
However, there's more to the game. There is receiving and pass blocking, and Montgomery excels at both while Herbert hasn't been as good of a blocker and has struggled in the passing game. Having a back who can do all three makes the Bears offense less predictable.
From this link:
pinkstapler
Footballguy
This was partially a concern to me too, and likely my bias rationalizing a bit here, but after thinking on it a while eventually I found comparing draft capital across different positions kinda apples and oranges. A RB drafted in the 3rd round feels pretty similar anymore to a WR drafted in the 2nd to me; their value is pretty depressed overall. Roschon was the 8th RB taken, and for the most part he's going as the 5th or 6th RB in rookie drafts; main reason because RBs 3-7 have bigger red flags/worse landing spots than him. Sure people can easily make the argument Achane is the better talent, and even not a bad situation in Miami's fast offense. But AFAIK no RB under 190lbs has EVER had more than 100 carries in a season. That's the kind of stuff that pops up for a lot of these other RBs that just doesn't for RJ. His size, speed, production, and skills all have historical data which back up he at least has a higher percetage chance of being a successful guy. A lot of the other ones just don't. Or are behind a guy who is much better than Foreman/Herbert combo.
As I said above in a post, Roschon going where he is really speaks more to the weakness of this draft class, and after pick 5 IMO it's basically pick your poison. I mean people in 1QB leagues are taking Young/Stround in the 2nd round and they are not the guys people normally shoot for with a 2nd round pick like TLaw. 1 if not 2 TEs are going in the first, with 2-3 more in the second, when everyone knows TEs almost NEVER gain value going into their second year when drafted that high. It's just bad process. And ADP on players outside the top 8/9 is the most volatile I can remember in like a decade. Logic kinda tells us when it's so erratic and there's next to no consensus on rankings, it's because the players do not have rock solid profiles with historical data backing up positive success rates. I'm not saying any of the above shouldn't be happening. I'd be taking Kincaid late 1st myself. But again, it's a product of the ****storm that this draft class turned into as every step of the way, 2022 college season, combine, and NFL draft, all seemed to lower most players overall value rather than raise it like in most seasons.
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pinkstapler
Footballguy
"PFF graded Foreman 30th among 60 qualifying running backs last season but only 45th as a receiver. He was rated 60th as a pass-blocker, suggesting he’ll be little help for Fields, who was sacked an NFL-high 55 times last season."
D'Onta Foreman is not a good pass blocker unfortunately for the Bears and Fields....
"According to PFF Montgomery has a pass protection grade of 83.7, and Herbert is at 26.2. It is pretty noticeable. The New York Giants exposed this often, as they blitzed an extra rusher on over 50% of the times that Justin Fields dropped back."
Nor is Herbert
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
That is all fair and I acknowledge it's a weak class but I wouldn't touch a 4th round player over a 2nd round player unless we are taking a massive gap in profile but in this case, Roschon doesn't have a good profile either. I know people are saying he's the best pass blocker. Ok, maybe he is. Do we want our fantasy back used in pass protection? Especially for a scrambling QB who isn't likely to throw many dump offs?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
And I want him to succeed. It’s commendable that he was a team player and never transferred. He was content helping the team and taking his 100 touches a year for 4 years. He could have probably gotten a chance to stand out and be a focal point of the offense somewhere else.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I guess where I see it different is that a lot of the other guys have red flags/bad profiles whereas I'd call Roschon's more just incomplete. His size is prime. And his numbers in college were great. It's a small sample size, but he was playing behind the highest profile back in college since Barkley. All the arguments after that are the ones I try not to put a ton of stock into because you can play both sides pretty easily. The general "he played against tougher competition" vs "well he dominated against worse competition"; "he benefited from playing behind a great line" vs "he wasn't great but it's cause his line stunk". I can't fault him for not getting reps ahead of Bijan, but I won't discount what he did with the ones he did get. End of day I think I'd rather gamble on RJ's incomplete/mystery profile than pretty much most players after I'd say Addison. I certainly don't like it though and if I had let's say pick 1.7 I'd much much much prefer to trade down than take RJ there lol.
To the next comment, I think that definitely plays into his hype too. Which is all well and good, but us lovers need to understand his good character, good locker room guy, the fact coaches all loved him in interviews.... well that don't really translate to fantasy points haha. At best it just means he will likely hang around on a team/in the league longer so maybe gets more opportunities than someone with a bad attitude and work ethic. Sometimes I do think we overemphasize how much the being a "good guy" actually comes into play for fantasy.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Ok incomplete. His efficiency was pretty good but a career 5.6 ypc for college isn’t that special. We can speculate about what would happen if Texas gave him more than 93 and 96 carries in his junior and senior year, but we don’t know. In the end we have a back whose combined junior and senior year came out to an average of 56 total yards a game. I know people love him as a receiver but he still only caught 25 passes combined his last two years of school. Yes he has great size but his workout numbers were pretty average. He’s not some super athlete. I just think the “playing behind Bijan” narrative has bought him a lot of undeserved value in some markets. Again, it’s a weak class so I understand him going in the 2nd. Heck I took Michael Carter in the 2nd a couple years ago. My issues is drafts I’ve been in seeing him go ahead of several 2nd round WRs. That doesn’t make sense to me.
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
5.6 isn't chicken liver either. Especially given his other traits. Did I ever mention Franco Harris played behind Lydell Mitchell at Penn St?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Secretly you don't
.....................jk
Boston
Footballguy
He was also the 13th overall pick.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Sure 5.6 is a solid ypc. Playerprofiler has it in the 59th percentile for a RB prospect. Yes Harris played behind Lydell his senior year. His junior year he played over him and led PSU in carries.
massraider
Footballguy
Me too.
He'll be the first one to high five Fields in the end zone after each of Field's 10 rushing TDs.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Last in RB targets.
Max Power
Footballguy
I think the 2022 season for the Bears was somewhat of an oddity. It can be broken down into three distinct blocks. The first 1/3 of the season the team was playing well, but Justin Fields wasn't. The middle 1/3 of the season Justin Fields was playing well, but the team wasn't + injuries. Final 1/3 of the season was Tanking.
Multiple problems on the offense have been addressed and 2023 looks to be a more stable year. Point being, I wouldn't put a lot of weight into 2022's numbers to predict what the offense will look like in 2023.
Multiple problems on the offense have been addressed and 2023 looks to be a more stable year. Point being, I wouldn't put a lot of weight into 2022's numbers to predict what the offense will look like in 2023.
Football Jones
Footballguy
I have quite low expectations compared to the masses. Roschon isn't a bad all-around prospect, but he's bordering on "just a guy" raw ability. He runs tough, but so do a lot of mediocre RBs in the NFL.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I strongly disagree with you
is that the same as strenuously objecting because I don't think that works very well
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Pick either one that suits your fancy, or neither.
Max Power
Footballguy
I loved the pick and love the Bears, but I have to throw the BS flag here. The Bears had the first pick in Rd4 and traded back 12 spots to pick up an additional late 5th rd pick. Its a tough sell to say how amazing he is and what great value you got when your team was willing to toss him back into the pond for such a minimal return.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Totally agree, if they loved him that much they would have just taken him at 4.01 and not allowed ANY risk of losing him. Bolded as that's definitely the bigger point. At the same time, looking at actual draft and the teams picking after 4.01 and before the 4.12 they traded back to were: Raiders - Jacobs, Eagles - Swift/Penny, Colts - Taylor, Pats - Rhamondre, Seahawks - KW3/Charbs, Texans - Pierce/Singletary, Browns - Chubb, Falcons - Bijan, Panthers - Sanders. Honestly there was probably only a team or two I'd have really been worried of taking a stab at Rhamondre before their next picks seeing as who the other teams already had/drafted/spent for in FA, so I also wouldn't call it a huge gamble.
Think we can agree while summer weather might not quite be here for everyone yet depending where ya live, summer puff pieces are already out in full force lol.
metoo
Footballguy
A mess and Fields vulturine gl tds.
