RB Saquon Barkley, PHI (2 Viewers)

[EBF]

Saquon's career to date has been almost as bad as realistically possible given his insane talent level. Almost everything went wrong in NY. Injuries and a pitiful supporting cast being the two biggest issues. I'm curious to see him on a new team. This has Lynch in Seattle vibes. Lynch was just a guy in Buffalo and looked like he was trending out of the league. Context matters a lot. If Barkley stays healthy, he could dominate.

Going back further I think of Marshall Faulk. He was such a great talent coming out of the draft and was on such a mediocre Indy team for the first 4-5 years of his life. Gets traded to the Rams and becomes one of the best RBs to ever play the game, winning a super bowl and a league MVP. I we get some % of that, jeesh, look out.

I am a huge Barkley fan and have him in just about every league I'm in so want this to be true. However there are some pretty big differences. Mainly that Faulk/Lynch were both 24/25 years old and largely uninjured whereas Barkley is 27 and has had several relatively major injuries throughout his career.

I firmly believe 22 year old Saquon in a great situation could have been in the discussion for one of the greatest of all-time. But he's a back whose greatest strength is his suddenness/explosiveness and at 27 with an ACL and several other lower body injuries behind him is certainly not the back he once was. I'm still expecting very good things, but definitely some major differences from those guys.

That all make sense. I actually think young Barkley was just a better version of Lynch though, so I can see him losing some sizzle and still being elite.

It's kind of like LeBron where when your starting point is so high, you can lose something and still be top tier.

 

[travdogg]

Saquon's career to date has been almost as bad as realistically possible given his insane talent level. Almost everything went wrong in NY. Injuries and a pitiful supporting cast being the two biggest issues. I'm curious to see him on a new team. This has Lynch in Seattle vibes. Lynch was just a guy in Buffalo and looked like he was trending out of the league. Context matters a lot. If Barkley stays healthy, he could dominate.

Going back further I think of Marshall Faulk. He was such a great talent coming out of the draft and was on such a mediocre Indy team for the first 4-5 years of his life. Gets traded to the Rams and becomes one of the best RBs to ever play the game, winning a super bowl and a league MVP. I we get some % of that, jeesh, look out.

I am a huge Barkley fan and have him in just about every league I'm in so want this to be true. However there are some pretty big differences. Mainly that Faulk/Lynch were both 24/25 years old and largely uninjured whereas Barkley is 27 and has had several relatively major injuries throughout his career.

I firmly believe 22 year old Saquon in a great situation could have been in the discussion for one of the greatest of all-time. But he's a back whose greatest strength is his suddenness/explosiveness and at 27 with an ACL and several other lower body injuries behind him is certainly not the back he once was. I'm still expecting very good things, but definitely some major differences from those guys.

Agree with this, I have some DeMarco Murray in 2015 fears as well. I certainly wouldn't call Barkley a fantasy 1st rounder right now. Still its a huge upgrade in situation for Barkley, and in RB quality for the Eagles.

 

[Faust]

Eagles HC Nick Sirianni on signing RB Saquon Barkley: 'He's going to bring an element to our offense'

 

[Faust]

Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie compares Saquon Barkley's versatility to LeSean McCoy, Brian Westbrook

 

[Faust]

Eagles WR Parris Campbell: I think Saquon Barkley will show people 'why he's the best' RB in the NFL

 

[Snotbubbles]

Saquon's career to date has been almost as bad as realistically possible given his insane talent level. Almost everything went wrong in NY. Injuries and a pitiful supporting cast being the two biggest issues. I'm curious to see him on a new team. This has Lynch in Seattle vibes. Lynch was just a guy in Buffalo and looked like he was trending out of the league. Context matters a lot. If Barkley stays healthy, he could dominate.

Going back further I think of Marshall Faulk. He was such a great talent coming out of the draft and was on such a mediocre Indy team for the first 4-5 years of his life. Gets traded to the Rams and becomes one of the best RBs to ever play the game, winning a super bowl and a league MVP. I we get some % of that, jeesh, look out.

I am a huge Barkley fan and have him in just about every league I'm in so want this to be true. However there are some pretty big differences. Mainly that Faulk/Lynch were both 24/25 years old and largely uninjured whereas Barkley is 27 and has had several relatively major injuries throughout his career.

I firmly believe 22 year old Saquon in a great situation could have been in the discussion for one of the greatest of all-time. But he's a back whose greatest strength is his suddenness/explosiveness and at 27 with an ACL and several other lower body injuries behind him is certainly not the back he once was. I'm still expecting very good things, but definitely some major differences from those guys.

Agree with this, I have some DeMarco Murray in 2015 fears as well. I certainly wouldn't call Barkley a fantasy 1st rounder right now. Still its a huge upgrade in situation for Barkley, and in RB quality for the Eagles.

Murray wasn't a good fit for the type of running scheme the Eagles had under Chip Kelly.

 

[Faust]

Eagles GM Howie Roseman: Adding Saquon Barkley was 'way to zig when everyone's zagging'

 

[kutta]

Eagles GM Howie Roseman: Adding Saquon Barkley was 'way to zig when everyone's zagging'

You gotta love hearing stuff like this:

"There's risk in every decision you make, but we don't think there's any risk on the talent," Roseman said. "We don't think there's any risk on the person. And we also feel like maybe -- not that it wasn't anywhere else -- but we have a good situation here with us in Philly to kind of maximize him. I don't think there's anyone when he came out of the draft that didn't think he wasn't a Hall of Fame-caliber talent and person. He's still young, and we're really excited to have him."

 

[Faust]

Saquon Barkley feels 'like a rookie again' at Eagles OTAs

 

[The Frankman]

The funny thing is taking into account the people who say "Saquon is cooked"... Saquon Barkley carried a average to poor run-blocking unit and a bottom tier QB in 2022. He wasn't able to do that in 2023 unfortunately... he's going to a team with a Top 6 QB, a much better offensive environment and one of the best O-lines in the NFL even sans Jason Kelce... how is he supposed to be bad now?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The funny thing is taking into account the people who say "Saquon is cooked"... Saquon Barkley carried a average to poor run-blocking unit and a bottom tier QB in 2022. He wasn't able to do that in 2023 unfortunately... he's going to a team with a Top 6 QB, a much better offensive environment and one of the best O-lines in the NFL even sans Jason Kelce... how is he supposed to be bad now?

I'm glad you're here to talk some sense into folks.
I will be interested in your take on a number of guys in "Redraft" at RB with so many guys switching teams

I am almost embarrassed where I have Saquon ranked on my list but safe to say super high
I think he is going to feel like a kid in the candy store at times with this offense.

 

[need2know]

The funny thing is taking into account the people who say "Saquon is cooked"... Saquon Barkley carried a average to poor run-blocking unit and a bottom tier QB in 2022. He wasn't able to do that in 2023 unfortunately... he's going to a team with a Top 6 QB, a much better offensive environment and one of the best O-lines in the NFL even sans Jason Kelce... how is he supposed to be bad now?

Thank you for being honest. As a giants fan

 

[Soulfly3]

I am almost embarrassed where I have Saquon ranked on my list but safe to say super high

Not higher than me, I'd assume.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I am almost embarrassed where I have Saquon ranked on my list but safe to say super high

Not higher than me, I'd assume.

 

[jtd13]

Anyone remember those "going to SF is actually bad news for CMC in fantasy" articles and takes after the trade? I think the similar takes here will end up looking similarly bad.

 

[Payne]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

True. But I'm wondering if they do a little less of the latter now that Kelce is retired, he was the front line cog in that play.

 

[travdogg]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

I'd argue talent is also keeping him from #1 overall RB. He's nowhere near the player CMC is, really at anything, even power running. Barkley is a good player, but man, he gets a lot of leeway for his numbers, because the Giants weren't good. Lots of other RBs produced more in situations just as bad. Barkley hasn't been a great tackle breaker or a high-end pass catcher since he tore his ACL. That elite player from 2018-2019 is gone and is never coming back.

Barkley will be good, because he's in a great offense, and should see a big workload, but I don't think he has elite upside at all. I've got him in the RB6 to RB8 range, as a 2/3 turn kind of guy. Which likely means he may as well not even be on my board.

Hurts, probably well, hurts as well. Both from a TD aspect, and a reception aspect. I think 40 catches is a fair over/under in this offense. Maybe 8-10 TDs. I'd consider it a minor upset if he topped 300 touches. I'm not confident he's the best RB (NFL or fantasy) that changed teams this offseason.

 

[JAA]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

If I were the Eagles I would run Barkley as QB in tush push. Save Jalen from injury.

 

[jm192]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

I'd argue talent is also keeping him from #1 overall RB. He's nowhere near the player CMC is, really at anything, even power running. Barkley is a good player, but man, he gets a lot of leeway for his numbers, because the Giants weren't good. Lots of other RBs produced more in situations just as bad. Barkley hasn't been a great tackle breaker or a high-end pass catcher since he tore his ACL. That elite player from 2018-2019 is gone and is never coming back.

Barkley will be good, because he's in a great offense, and should see a big workload, but I don't think he has elite upside at all. I've got him in the RB6 to RB8 range, as a 2/3 turn kind of guy. Which likely means he may as well not even be on my board.

Hurts, probably well, hurts as well. Both from a TD aspect, and a reception aspect. I think 40 catches is a fair over/under in this offense. Maybe 8-10 TDs. I'd consider it a minor upset if he topped 300 touches. I'm not confident he's the best RB (NFL or fantasy) that changed teams this offseason.

I thought Saquon had a really good year last year.

962 rushing yards in 14 games--on pace for 1168 in 17 games.
10 Total touchdowns in 14 games.
41 receptions--on pace for ~50 receptions in a full 17 games.

He finished as RB12 overall in 0.5 PPR.

The Giants lost their starting Quarterback.
They had no quality playmakers at the receiver position.
They had one of the worst offensive lines in football. PFF had them at 29 going into last year. I can't find this year's, but FBG has them at 27.

Guys that finished above Saquon:
1. CMC
2. Mostert
3. ETN
4. Breece Hall
5. Mixon
6. Kyren
7. White
8. Henry
9. Robinson
10. Gibbs
11. Cook

Of the above--who had a situation just as bad?

Breece didn't have his starting QB, but he had a competent WR in Garrett Wilson that the defense at least had to consider.
Mixon lost his starting QB, but had Chase and Higgins. Higgins missed some time but played 12 games.
Henry wound up with Levis at QB--but again, at least had Hopkins.

I just really don't look at the list and think "A lot of RB's had equally bad situations and did even better." I think Saquons probably was the worst. I don't think Saquon winds up as RB1 overall. I have him around 7 or 8 in my redraft rankings. But I certainly think the #1 overall RB upside exists in this much better situation. I certainly don't think we're giving him too much credit for the Giants bad situation.

 

[travdogg]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

I'd argue talent is also keeping him from #1 overall RB. He's nowhere near the player CMC is, really at anything, even power running. Barkley is a good player, but man, he gets a lot of leeway for his numbers, because the Giants weren't good. Lots of other RBs produced more in situations just as bad. Barkley hasn't been a great tackle breaker or a high-end pass catcher since he tore his ACL. That elite player from 2018-2019 is gone and is never coming back.

Barkley will be good, because he's in a great offense, and should see a big workload, but I don't think he has elite upside at all. I've got him in the RB6 to RB8 range, as a 2/3 turn kind of guy. Which likely means he may as well not even be on my board.

Hurts, probably well, hurts as well. Both from a TD aspect, and a reception aspect. I think 40 catches is a fair over/under in this offense. Maybe 8-10 TDs. I'd consider it a minor upset if he topped 300 touches. I'm not confident he's the best RB (NFL or fantasy) that changed teams this offseason.

I thought Saquon had a really good year last year.

962 rushing yards in 14 games--on pace for 1168 in 17 games.
10 Total touchdowns in 14 games.
41 receptions--on pace for ~50 receptions in a full 17 games.

He finished as RB12 overall in 0.5 PPR.

The Giants lost their starting Quarterback.
They had no quality playmakers at the receiver position.
They had one of the worst offensive lines in football. PFF had them at 29 going into last year. I can't find this year's, but FBG has them at 27.

Guys that finished above Saquon:
1. CMC
2. Mostert
3. ETN
4. Breece Hall
5. Mixon
6. Kyren
7. White
8. Henry
9. Robinson
10. Gibbs
11. Cook

Of the above--who had a situation just as bad?

Breece didn't have his starting QB, but he had a competent WR in Garrett Wilson that the defense at least had to consider.
Mixon lost his starting QB, but had Chase and Higgins. Higgins missed some time but played 12 games.
Henry wound up with Levis at QB--but again, at least had Hopkins.

I just really don't look at the list and think "A lot of RB's had equally bad situations and did even better." I think Saquons probably was the worst. I don't think Saquon winds up as RB1 overall. I have him around 7 or 8 in my redraft rankings. But I certainly think the #1 overall RB upside exists in this much better situation. I certainly don't think we're giving him too much credit for the Giants bad situation.

I wasn't singling out last season when I said other RB have produced more in just as bad. However, I would argue Breece Hall had did more with less. Garrett Wilson helps, but the Jets OL was every bit as bad, and Zach Wilson was worse than anyone the NYG trotted out, especially Tyrod Taylor. The Jets agree as they signed Tyrod to replace Wilson. One issue I have with Barkley is that I think his lack of supporting cast, is also why his workload has been so big. I'd be shocked if the Eagles used him as much as NY did. He's been option #1 for them his entire career. In Philly he won't be.

I just haven't been very impressed with Barkley since his ACL tear. He doesn't break tackles in the open field anymore. Yes, the teams were sitting on him making it easier to stop him, but he didn't really elevate much beyond what was blocked. The last 2 seasons he's been 23rd and 42nd in Yards after contact per attempt, that is very much an individual stat, that can't be blamed much on supporting cast. For comparisons sake, Breece Hall is 1st and 4th the last 2 years. Derrick Henry was 5th and 9th. Its not the end all be all obviously, but I think its one of a few reasons I don't see his upside being anywhere near #1 overall, unless Barkley himself plays a lot better than he has since 2019. That feels unlikely to me.

I've got Barkley having a season along the lines of:
250 carries
1100 yards
4.4 YPC
8 rush TDs

40 catches
300 yards
7.5 YPR
2 TD catches

That's mid to low RB1 numbers, so I don't hate him by any means, but I think he's still being treated like he's the same player he was 5 years ago, and he's just not. I've got him in the RB6-8 range. I think he and Jacobs are somewhat similar. I don't think he's as safe a bet as Henry is. I think guys who may see smaller workloads like Gibbs or Achane both have higher ceilings. I like him more than Kyren or Etienne.

 

[Snotbubbles]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

I'd argue talent is also keeping him from #1 overall RB. He's nowhere near the player CMC is, really at anything, even power running. Barkley is a good player, but man, he gets a lot of leeway for his numbers, because the Giants weren't good. Lots of other RBs produced more in situations just as bad. Barkley hasn't been a great tackle breaker or a high-end pass catcher since he tore his ACL. That elite player from 2018-2019 is gone and is never coming back.

Barkley will be good, because he's in a great offense, and should see a big workload, but I don't think he has elite upside at all. I've got him in the RB6 to RB8 range, as a 2/3 turn kind of guy. Which likely means he may as well not even be on my board.

Hurts, probably well, hurts as well. Both from a TD aspect, and a reception aspect. I think 40 catches is a fair over/under in this offense. Maybe 8-10 TDs. I'd consider it a minor upset if he topped 300 touches. I'm not confident he's the best RB (NFL or fantasy) that changed teams this offseason.

2023 Advanced Running Back Stats | NFL Metrics | FantasyPros

View 2023 Advanced Running Back Stats including Yards After Contact, Broken Tackles, Rushes of 30+ Yards, and more. See how RBs perform across the NFL's key metrics.

www.fantasypros.com

Barkley 2023: 12 broken tackles (14 games)

CMC 2023: 13 broken tackles (16 games)

You want to know a huge difference between the two RBs.

CMC 2023: 877 yards before contact (3.2 yards/attempt).

Barkley 2023: 546 yards before contact (2.2 yards/attempt)

For comparison sake, D'Andre Swift had 664 yards before contact (2.9 yards/attempt)

Just playing on the Eagles should give Barkley an extra 100-150 yards before he's even touched.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

It's difficult to quantify how many other teams had situations as bad as the Giants, but one decent way to look at it is taking the RBs themselves out of the equation and looking at the backup's performance.

The other Giants' RBs averaged 2.7ypc last year. As far as I can tell, the worst of any group of backup RBs in the league. Obviously some disparity in the quality of backup RBs, but a lot of bad backup RB units out there with significantly better ypc. Without an elite RB, we may have seen something bordering on all-time levels of bad for rushing performance on that team.

We're dealing with reasonably small sample sizes here so it's far from a perfect metric, but I just grabbed 3 RBs that I consider to be elite and took the difference in their YPC versus the YPC of their backups and it's remarkable how similar the advantage they all offered over the backups is.

Saquon: 1.2ypc better than his backups
CMC: 1.2ypc better than his backups
Breece: 1.3ypc better than his backups.

 

[travdogg]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

I'd argue talent is also keeping him from #1 overall RB. He's nowhere near the player CMC is, really at anything, even power running. Barkley is a good player, but man, he gets a lot of leeway for his numbers, because the Giants weren't good. Lots of other RBs produced more in situations just as bad. Barkley hasn't been a great tackle breaker or a high-end pass catcher since he tore his ACL. That elite player from 2018-2019 is gone and is never coming back.

Barkley will be good, because he's in a great offense, and should see a big workload, but I don't think he has elite upside at all. I've got him in the RB6 to RB8 range, as a 2/3 turn kind of guy. Which likely means he may as well not even be on my board.

Hurts, probably well, hurts as well. Both from a TD aspect, and a reception aspect. I think 40 catches is a fair over/under in this offense. Maybe 8-10 TDs. I'd consider it a minor upset if he topped 300 touches. I'm not confident he's the best RB (NFL or fantasy) that changed teams this offseason.

2023 Advanced Running Back Stats | NFL Metrics | FantasyPros

View 2023 Advanced Running Back Stats including Yards After Contact, Broken Tackles, Rushes of 30+ Yards, and more. See how RBs perform across the NFL's key metrics.

www.fantasypros.com

Barkley 2023: 12 broken tackles (14 games)

CMC 2023: 13 broken tackles (16 games)

You want to know a huge difference between the two RBs.

CMC 2023: 877 yards before contact (3.2 yards/attempt).

Barkley 2023: 546 yards before contact (2.2 yards/attempt)

For comparison sake, D'Andre Swift had 664 yards before contact (2.9 yards/attempt)

Just playing on the Eagles should give Barkley an extra 100-150 yards before he's even touched.

I don't think those numbers are accurate. Both Barkley and CMC broke a lot more tackles than 12 and 13. CMC broke more than 13 just in the playoffs.

According to PFF charting (which I trust a lot more than these numbers) CMC led the league in broken tackles with 75 (counting playoffs) and Barkley had 31.

Those yards before contact numbers seem way off too. Both of those are way too high. Again, PFF has CMC at 1.85 yards before contact, and Barkley at 0.99. Swift is at 2.06 so in theory no doubt moving to Philly is an upgrade there for Barkley, though 2.06 is likely to come down a bit with Kelce retired. The only guy who averaged over 2.2 was Achane.

I don't disagree that playing with the Eagles should give Barkley an extra 100+ yards before contact.

It's difficult to quantify how many other teams had situations as bad as the Giants, but one decent way to look at it is taking the RBs themselves out of the equation and looking at the backup's performance.

The other Giants' RBs averaged 2.7ypc last year. As far as I can tell, the worst of any group of backup RBs in the league. Obviously some disparity in the quality of backup RBs, but a lot of bad backup RB units out there with significantly better ypc. Without an elite RB, we may have seen something bordering on all-time levels of bad for rushing performance on that team.

We're dealing with reasonably small sample sizes here so it's far from a perfect metric, but I just grabbed 3 RBs that I consider to be elite and took the difference in their YPC versus the YPC of their backups and it's remarkable how similar the advantage they all offered over the backups is.

Saquon: 1.2ypc better than his backups
CMC: 1.2ypc better than his backups
Breece: 1.3ypc better than his backups.

To be fair, Elijah Mitchell is a lot better RB than anyone the Giants had, or the corpse of Dalvin Cook for that matter.

 

[jm192]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

I'd argue talent is also keeping him from #1 overall RB. He's nowhere near the player CMC is, really at anything, even power running. Barkley is a good player, but man, he gets a lot of leeway for his numbers, because the Giants weren't good. Lots of other RBs produced more in situations just as bad. Barkley hasn't been a great tackle breaker or a high-end pass catcher since he tore his ACL. That elite player from 2018-2019 is gone and is never coming back.

Barkley will be good, because he's in a great offense, and should see a big workload, but I don't think he has elite upside at all. I've got him in the RB6 to RB8 range, as a 2/3 turn kind of guy. Which likely means he may as well not even be on my board.

Hurts, probably well, hurts as well. Both from a TD aspect, and a reception aspect. I think 40 catches is a fair over/under in this offense. Maybe 8-10 TDs. I'd consider it a minor upset if he topped 300 touches. I'm not confident he's the best RB (NFL or fantasy) that changed teams this offseason.

I thought Saquon had a really good year last year.

962 rushing yards in 14 games--on pace for 1168 in 17 games.
10 Total touchdowns in 14 games.
41 receptions--on pace for ~50 receptions in a full 17 games.

He finished as RB12 overall in 0.5 PPR.

The Giants lost their starting Quarterback.
They had no quality playmakers at the receiver position.
They had one of the worst offensive lines in football. PFF had them at 29 going into last year. I can't find this year's, but FBG has them at 27.

Guys that finished above Saquon:
1. CMC
2. Mostert
3. ETN
4. Breece Hall
5. Mixon
6. Kyren
7. White
8. Henry
9. Robinson
10. Gibbs
11. Cook

Of the above--who had a situation just as bad?

Breece didn't have his starting QB, but he had a competent WR in Garrett Wilson that the defense at least had to consider.
Mixon lost his starting QB, but had Chase and Higgins. Higgins missed some time but played 12 games.
Henry wound up with Levis at QB--but again, at least had Hopkins.

I just really don't look at the list and think "A lot of RB's had equally bad situations and did even better." I think Saquons probably was the worst. I don't think Saquon winds up as RB1 overall. I have him around 7 or 8 in my redraft rankings. But I certainly think the #1 overall RB upside exists in this much better situation. I certainly don't think we're giving him too much credit for the Giants bad situation.

I wasn't singling out last season when I said other RB have produced more in just as bad. However, I would argue Breece Hall had did more with less. Garrett Wilson helps, but the Jets OL was every bit as bad, and Zach Wilson was worse than anyone the NYG trotted out, especially Tyrod Taylor. The Jets agree as they signed Tyrod to replace Wilson. One issue I have with Barkley is that I think his lack of supporting cast, is also why his workload has been so big. I'd be shocked if the Eagles used him as much as NY did. He's been option #1 for them his entire career. In Philly he won't be.

I just haven't been very impressed with Barkley since his ACL tear. He doesn't break tackles in the open field anymore. Yes, the teams were sitting on him making it easier to stop him, but he didn't really elevate much beyond what was blocked. The last 2 seasons he's been 23rd and 42nd in Yards after contact per attempt, that is very much an individual stat, that can't be blamed much on supporting cast. For comparisons sake, Breece Hall is 1st and 4th the last 2 years. Derrick Henry was 5th and 9th. Its not the end all be all obviously, but I think its one of a few reasons I don't see his upside being anywhere near #1 overall, unless Barkley himself plays a lot better than he has since 2019. That feels unlikely to me.

I've got Barkley having a season along the lines of:
250 carries
1100 yards
4.4 YPC
8 rush TDs

40 catches
300 yards
7.5 YPR
2 TD catches

That's mid to low RB1 numbers, so I don't hate him by any means, but I think he's still being treated like he's the same player he was 5 years ago, and he's just not. I've got him in the RB6-8 range. I think he and Jacobs are somewhat similar. I don't think he's as safe a bet as Henry is. I think guys who may see smaller workloads like Gibbs or Achane both have higher ceilings. I like him more than Kyren or Etienne.

I wouldn't say Breece had it worse. But I don't know that it's worth arguing either.

Breece is one of the best RB's in football real or fantasy. So to say that he did more than Saquon in a bad situation--that doesn't really count as a knock against Saquon. Saquon still did really good with one of the worst RB situations in football. If the only example you can give me is Breece Hall, I don't think you're really proving Saquon didn't do so good in a bad situation.

You say that Saquon was only so good because of volume. But--going to a better situation--his efficiency SHOULD go up, right? He doesn't need 400 touches at 3.9 yards a carry--because he probably won't be at 3.9 yards per carry anymore.

Swift had 268 touches in 16 games, which extrapolates to 285 in 17 games. So we're almost to 300 touches there alone.
The Eagles combined for 22 rushing touchdowns. Hurts took 15 of those. With Kelce retiring, it's possible they cut down on the Tush push a bit at the goal line.

The Eagles clearly value Barkley more than Swift. They let Swift walk and sign for 8 million a year with the bears.
They're paying Saquon 12 million a year.

I'm not valuing him as a top 5 RB right now, but it seems weird to me to dismiss the improved situation on the basis of "Well, Breece Hall did better with a bad situation."

 

[Da Franchise]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

I'd argue talent is also keeping him from #1 overall RB. He's nowhere near the player CMC is, really at anything, even power running. Barkley is a good player, but man, he gets a lot of leeway for his numbers, because the Giants weren't good. Lots of other RBs produced more in situations just as bad. Barkley hasn't been a great tackle breaker or a high-end pass catcher since he tore his ACL. That elite player from 2018-2019 is gone and is never coming back.

Barkley will be good, because he's in a great offense, and should see a big workload, but I don't think he has elite upside at all. I've got him in the RB6 to RB8 range, as a 2/3 turn kind of guy. Which likely means he may as well not even be on my board.

Hurts, probably well, hurts as well. Both from a TD aspect, and a reception aspect. I think 40 catches is a fair over/under in this offense. Maybe 8-10 TDs. I'd consider it a minor upset if he topped 300 touches. I'm not confident he's the best RB (NFL or fantasy) that changed teams this offseason.

I thought Saquon had a really good year last year.

962 rushing yards in 14 games--on pace for 1168 in 17 games.
10 Total touchdowns in 14 games.
41 receptions--on pace for ~50 receptions in a full 17 games.

He finished as RB12 overall in 0.5 PPR.

The Giants lost their starting Quarterback.
They had no quality playmakers at the receiver position.
They had one of the worst offensive lines in football. PFF had them at 29 going into last year. I can't find this year's, but FBG has them at 27.

Guys that finished above Saquon:
1. CMC
2. Mostert
3. ETN
4. Breece Hall
5. Mixon
6. Kyren
7. White
8. Henry
9. Robinson
10. Gibbs
11. Cook

Of the above--who had a situation just as bad?

Breece didn't have his starting QB, but he had a competent WR in Garrett Wilson that the defense at least had to consider.
Mixon lost his starting QB, but had Chase and Higgins. Higgins missed some time but played 12 games.
Henry wound up with Levis at QB--but again, at least had Hopkins.

I just really don't look at the list and think "A lot of RB's had equally bad situations and did even better." I think Saquons probably was the worst. I don't think Saquon winds up as RB1 overall. I have him around 7 or 8 in my redraft rankings. But I certainly think the #1 overall RB upside exists in this much better situation. I certainly don't think we're giving him too much credit for the Giants bad situation.

I wasn't singling out last season when I said other RB have produced more in just as bad. However, I would argue Breece Hall had did more with less. Garrett Wilson helps, but the Jets OL was every bit as bad, and Zach Wilson was worse than anyone the NYG trotted out, especially Tyrod Taylor. The Jets agree as they signed Tyrod to replace Wilson. One issue I have with Barkley is that I think his lack of supporting cast, is also why his workload has been so big. I'd be shocked if the Eagles used him as much as NY did. He's been option #1 for them his entire career. In Philly he won't be.

I just haven't been very impressed with Barkley since his ACL tear. He doesn't break tackles in the open field anymore. Yes, the teams were sitting on him making it easier to stop him, but he didn't really elevate much beyond what was blocked. The last 2 seasons he's been 23rd and 42nd in Yards after contact per attempt, that is very much an individual stat, that can't be blamed much on supporting cast. For comparisons sake, Breece Hall is 1st and 4th the last 2 years. Derrick Henry was 5th and 9th. Its not the end all be all obviously, but I think its one of a few reasons I don't see his upside being anywhere near #1 overall, unless Barkley himself plays a lot better than he has since 2019. That feels unlikely to me.

I've got Barkley having a season along the lines of:
250 carries
1100 yards
4.4 YPC
8 rush TDs

40 catches
300 yards
7.5 YPR
2 TD catches

That's mid to low RB1 numbers, so I don't hate him by any means, but I think he's still being treated like he's the same player he was 5 years ago, and he's just not. I've got him in the RB6-8 range. I think he and Jacobs are somewhat similar. I don't think he's as safe a bet as Henry is. I think guys who may see smaller workloads like Gibbs or Achane both have higher ceilings. I like him more than Kyren or Etienne.

I wouldn't say Breece had it worse. But I don't know that it's worth arguing either.

Breece is one of the best RB's in football real or fantasy. So to say that he did more than Saquon in a bad situation--that doesn't really count as a knock against Saquon. Saquon still did really good with one of the worst RB situations in football. If the only example you can give me is Breece Hall, I don't think you're really proving Saquon didn't do so good in a bad situation.

You say that Saquon was only so good because of volume. But--going to a better situation--his efficiency SHOULD go up, right? He doesn't need 400 touches at 3.9 yards a carry--because he probably won't be at 3.9 yards per carry anymore.

Swift had 268 touches in 16 games, which extrapolates to 285 in 17 games. So we're almost to 300 touches there alone.
The Eagles combined for 22 rushing touchdowns. Hurts took 15 of those. With Kelce retiring, it's possible they cut down on the Tush push a bit at the goal line.

The Eagles clearly value Barkley more than Swift. They let Swift walk and sign for 8 million a year with the bears.
They're paying Saquon 12 million a year.

I'm not valuing him as a top 5 RB right now, but it seems weird to me to dismiss the improved situation on the basis of "Well, Breece Hall did better with a bad situation."

Agree. So CMC and Breece should definitely go over him. Who else? I’ll give you Bijan and Gibbs. After that it’s a legit argument.

 

[Snotbubbles]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

I'd argue talent is also keeping him from #1 overall RB. He's nowhere near the player CMC is, really at anything, even power running. Barkley is a good player, but man, he gets a lot of leeway for his numbers, because the Giants weren't good. Lots of other RBs produced more in situations just as bad. Barkley hasn't been a great tackle breaker or a high-end pass catcher since he tore his ACL. That elite player from 2018-2019 is gone and is never coming back.

Barkley will be good, because he's in a great offense, and should see a big workload, but I don't think he has elite upside at all. I've got him in the RB6 to RB8 range, as a 2/3 turn kind of guy. Which likely means he may as well not even be on my board.

Hurts, probably well, hurts as well. Both from a TD aspect, and a reception aspect. I think 40 catches is a fair over/under in this offense. Maybe 8-10 TDs. I'd consider it a minor upset if he topped 300 touches. I'm not confident he's the best RB (NFL or fantasy) that changed teams this offseason.

2023 Advanced Running Back Stats | NFL Metrics | FantasyPros

View 2023 Advanced Running Back Stats including Yards After Contact, Broken Tackles, Rushes of 30+ Yards, and more. See how RBs perform across the NFL's key metrics.

www.fantasypros.com

Barkley 2023: 12 broken tackles (14 games)

CMC 2023: 13 broken tackles (16 games)

You want to know a huge difference between the two RBs.

CMC 2023: 877 yards before contact (3.2 yards/attempt).

Barkley 2023: 546 yards before contact (2.2 yards/attempt)

For comparison sake, D'Andre Swift had 664 yards before contact (2.9 yards/attempt)

Just playing on the Eagles should give Barkley an extra 100-150 yards before he's even touched.

I don't think those numbers are accurate. Both Barkley and CMC broke a lot more tackles than 12 and 13. CMC broke more than 13 just in the playoffs.

According to PFF charting (which I trust a lot more than these numbers) CMC led the league in broken tackles with 75 (counting playoffs) and Barkley had 31.

Those yards before contact numbers seem way off too. Both of those are way too high. Again, PFF has CMC at 1.85 yards before contact, and Barkley at 0.99. Swift is at 2.06 so in theory no doubt moving to Philly is an upgrade there for Barkley, though 2.06 is likely to come down a bit with Kelce retired. The only guy who averaged over 2.2 was Achane.

I don't disagree that playing with the Eagles should give Barkley an extra 100+ yards before contact.

It's difficult to quantify how many other teams had situations as bad as the Giants, but one decent way to look at it is taking the RBs themselves out of the equation and looking at the backup's performance.

The other Giants' RBs averaged 2.7ypc last year. As far as I can tell, the worst of any group of backup RBs in the league. Obviously some disparity in the quality of backup RBs, but a lot of bad backup RB units out there with significantly better ypc. Without an elite RB, we may have seen something bordering on all-time levels of bad for rushing performance on that team.

We're dealing with reasonably small sample sizes here so it's far from a perfect metric, but I just grabbed 3 RBs that I consider to be elite and took the difference in their YPC versus the YPC of their backups and it's remarkable how similar the advantage they all offered over the backups is.

Saquon: 1.2ypc better than his backups
CMC: 1.2ypc better than his backups
Breece: 1.3ypc better than his backups.

To be fair, Elijah Mitchell is a lot better RB than anyone the Giants had, or the corpse of Dalvin Cook for that matter.

Here another source:

2023 NFL Advanced Rushing | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Check out the 2023 NFL Advanced Rushing Stats and more on Pro-football-reference.com

www.pro-football-reference.com

Has CMC at 15 and Barkley at 12.

Also has CMC yards before contact at 3.1, Swift at 2.8 and Barkley at 1.9.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

To be fair, Elijah Mitchell is a lot better RB than anyone the Giants had, or the corpse of Dalvin Cook for that matter.

FWIW I took the total of all backup RBs for each team, so those numbers for the 49ers backups included Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price as well. Jordan Mason actually averaged 5.2ypc.

 

[travdogg]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

I'd argue talent is also keeping him from #1 overall RB. He's nowhere near the player CMC is, really at anything, even power running. Barkley is a good player, but man, he gets a lot of leeway for his numbers, because the Giants weren't good. Lots of other RBs produced more in situations just as bad. Barkley hasn't been a great tackle breaker or a high-end pass catcher since he tore his ACL. That elite player from 2018-2019 is gone and is never coming back.

Barkley will be good, because he's in a great offense, and should see a big workload, but I don't think he has elite upside at all. I've got him in the RB6 to RB8 range, as a 2/3 turn kind of guy. Which likely means he may as well not even be on my board.

Hurts, probably well, hurts as well. Both from a TD aspect, and a reception aspect. I think 40 catches is a fair over/under in this offense. Maybe 8-10 TDs. I'd consider it a minor upset if he topped 300 touches. I'm not confident he's the best RB (NFL or fantasy) that changed teams this offseason.

I thought Saquon had a really good year last year.

962 rushing yards in 14 games--on pace for 1168 in 17 games.
10 Total touchdowns in 14 games.
41 receptions--on pace for ~50 receptions in a full 17 games.

He finished as RB12 overall in 0.5 PPR.

The Giants lost their starting Quarterback.
They had no quality playmakers at the receiver position.
They had one of the worst offensive lines in football. PFF had them at 29 going into last year. I can't find this year's, but FBG has them at 27.

Guys that finished above Saquon:
1. CMC
2. Mostert
3. ETN
4. Breece Hall
5. Mixon
6. Kyren
7. White
8. Henry
9. Robinson
10. Gibbs
11. Cook

Of the above--who had a situation just as bad?

Breece didn't have his starting QB, but he had a competent WR in Garrett Wilson that the defense at least had to consider.
Mixon lost his starting QB, but had Chase and Higgins. Higgins missed some time but played 12 games.
Henry wound up with Levis at QB--but again, at least had Hopkins.

I just really don't look at the list and think "A lot of RB's had equally bad situations and did even better." I think Saquons probably was the worst. I don't think Saquon winds up as RB1 overall. I have him around 7 or 8 in my redraft rankings. But I certainly think the #1 overall RB upside exists in this much better situation. I certainly don't think we're giving him too much credit for the Giants bad situation.

I wasn't singling out last season when I said other RB have produced more in just as bad. However, I would argue Breece Hall had did more with less. Garrett Wilson helps, but the Jets OL was every bit as bad, and Zach Wilson was worse than anyone the NYG trotted out, especially Tyrod Taylor. The Jets agree as they signed Tyrod to replace Wilson. One issue I have with Barkley is that I think his lack of supporting cast, is also why his workload has been so big. I'd be shocked if the Eagles used him as much as NY did. He's been option #1 for them his entire career. In Philly he won't be.

I just haven't been very impressed with Barkley since his ACL tear. He doesn't break tackles in the open field anymore. Yes, the teams were sitting on him making it easier to stop him, but he didn't really elevate much beyond what was blocked. The last 2 seasons he's been 23rd and 42nd in Yards after contact per attempt, that is very much an individual stat, that can't be blamed much on supporting cast. For comparisons sake, Breece Hall is 1st and 4th the last 2 years. Derrick Henry was 5th and 9th. Its not the end all be all obviously, but I think its one of a few reasons I don't see his upside being anywhere near #1 overall, unless Barkley himself plays a lot better than he has since 2019. That feels unlikely to me.

I've got Barkley having a season along the lines of:
250 carries
1100 yards
4.4 YPC
8 rush TDs

40 catches
300 yards
7.5 YPR
2 TD catches

That's mid to low RB1 numbers, so I don't hate him by any means, but I think he's still being treated like he's the same player he was 5 years ago, and he's just not. I've got him in the RB6-8 range. I think he and Jacobs are somewhat similar. I don't think he's as safe a bet as Henry is. I think guys who may see smaller workloads like Gibbs or Achane both have higher ceilings. I like him more than Kyren or Etienne.

I wouldn't say Breece had it worse. But I don't know that it's worth arguing either.

Breece is one of the best RB's in football real or fantasy. So to say that he did more than Saquon in a bad situation--that doesn't really count as a knock against Saquon. Saquon still did really good with one of the worst RB situations in football. If the only example you can give me is Breece Hall, I don't think you're really proving Saquon didn't do so good in a bad situation.

You say that Saquon was only so good because of volume. But--going to a better situation--his efficiency SHOULD go up, right? He doesn't need 400 touches at 3.9 yards a carry--because he probably won't be at 3.9 yards per carry anymore.

Swift had 268 touches in 16 games, which extrapolates to 285 in 17 games. So we're almost to 300 touches there alone.
The Eagles combined for 22 rushing touchdowns. Hurts took 15 of those. With Kelce retiring, it's possible they cut down on the Tush push a bit at the goal line.

The Eagles clearly value Barkley more than Swift. They let Swift walk and sign for 8 million a year with the bears.
They're paying Saquon 12 million a year.

I'm not valuing him as a top 5 RB right now, but it seems weird to me to dismiss the improved situation on the basis of "Well, Breece Hall did better with a bad situation."

I didn't dismiss the improved situation at all. I gave projections in which his YPC was .5 higher than in 2023.

I said he was in the RB6-8 range. All I have been really saying is that I don't think he's an elite RB, and that his numbers with the Giants aren't 100% supporting cast based.

I never said Barkley was only good because of his volume, but that his volume often helped him to produce when he was inefficient. That volume is highly likely to come down, as he's simply not needed to be THE offense in Philly, as they have other players who can more than handle being featured. They just extended AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith to big deals. They brought in a pass 1st OC.

I do find it odd how the logic seems to be that with Kelce retired, the tush push will be used less often (which I agree with) but that the rushing TDs overall won't come down. Losing a likely HOF Center is bad news for everyone. That's the main reason I think Barkley will have a lower YPC than Swift or Sanders have the last 2 years, because the middle won't be anywhere near as strong, even if I agree its still quite a bit better than what the NYG had, and that he's better than those guys.

If you don't have him as a top-5 RB either, then I'm not 100% sure what we are really even disagreeing about. But if you disagree with me on the points I'm making, I'm struggling to see how he wouldn't be a top-5 RB for you.

 

[Snotbubbles]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

I'd argue talent is also keeping him from #1 overall RB. He's nowhere near the player CMC is, really at anything, even power running. Barkley is a good player, but man, he gets a lot of leeway for his numbers, because the Giants weren't good. Lots of other RBs produced more in situations just as bad. Barkley hasn't been a great tackle breaker or a high-end pass catcher since he tore his ACL. That elite player from 2018-2019 is gone and is never coming back.

Barkley will be good, because he's in a great offense, and should see a big workload, but I don't think he has elite upside at all. I've got him in the RB6 to RB8 range, as a 2/3 turn kind of guy. Which likely means he may as well not even be on my board.

Hurts, probably well, hurts as well. Both from a TD aspect, and a reception aspect. I think 40 catches is a fair over/under in this offense. Maybe 8-10 TDs. I'd consider it a minor upset if he topped 300 touches. I'm not confident he's the best RB (NFL or fantasy) that changed teams this offseason.

I thought Saquon had a really good year last year.

962 rushing yards in 14 games--on pace for 1168 in 17 games.
10 Total touchdowns in 14 games.
41 receptions--on pace for ~50 receptions in a full 17 games.

He finished as RB12 overall in 0.5 PPR.

The Giants lost their starting Quarterback.
They had no quality playmakers at the receiver position.
They had one of the worst offensive lines in football. PFF had them at 29 going into last year. I can't find this year's, but FBG has them at 27.

Guys that finished above Saquon:
1. CMC
2. Mostert
3. ETN
4. Breece Hall
5. Mixon
6. Kyren
7. White
8. Henry
9. Robinson
10. Gibbs
11. Cook

Of the above--who had a situation just as bad?

Breece didn't have his starting QB, but he had a competent WR in Garrett Wilson that the defense at least had to consider.
Mixon lost his starting QB, but had Chase and Higgins. Higgins missed some time but played 12 games.
Henry wound up with Levis at QB--but again, at least had Hopkins.

I just really don't look at the list and think "A lot of RB's had equally bad situations and did even better." I think Saquons probably was the worst. I don't think Saquon winds up as RB1 overall. I have him around 7 or 8 in my redraft rankings. But I certainly think the #1 overall RB upside exists in this much better situation. I certainly don't think we're giving him too much credit for the Giants bad situation.

I wasn't singling out last season when I said other RB have produced more in just as bad. However, I would argue Breece Hall had did more with less. Garrett Wilson helps, but the Jets OL was every bit as bad, and Zach Wilson was worse than anyone the NYG trotted out, especially Tyrod Taylor. The Jets agree as they signed Tyrod to replace Wilson. One issue I have with Barkley is that I think his lack of supporting cast, is also why his workload has been so big. I'd be shocked if the Eagles used him as much as NY did. He's been option #1 for them his entire career. In Philly he won't be.

I just haven't been very impressed with Barkley since his ACL tear. He doesn't break tackles in the open field anymore. Yes, the teams were sitting on him making it easier to stop him, but he didn't really elevate much beyond what was blocked. The last 2 seasons he's been 23rd and 42nd in Yards after contact per attempt, that is very much an individual stat, that can't be blamed much on supporting cast. For comparisons sake, Breece Hall is 1st and 4th the last 2 years. Derrick Henry was 5th and 9th. Its not the end all be all obviously, but I think its one of a few reasons I don't see his upside being anywhere near #1 overall, unless Barkley himself plays a lot better than he has since 2019. That feels unlikely to me.

I've got Barkley having a season along the lines of:
250 carries
1100 yards
4.4 YPC
8 rush TDs

40 catches
300 yards
7.5 YPR
2 TD catches

That's mid to low RB1 numbers, so I don't hate him by any means, but I think he's still being treated like he's the same player he was 5 years ago, and he's just not. I've got him in the RB6-8 range. I think he and Jacobs are somewhat similar. I don't think he's as safe a bet as Henry is. I think guys who may see smaller workloads like Gibbs or Achane both have higher ceilings. I like him more than Kyren or Etienne.

I wouldn't say Breece had it worse. But I don't know that it's worth arguing either.

Breece is one of the best RB's in football real or fantasy. So to say that he did more than Saquon in a bad situation--that doesn't really count as a knock against Saquon. Saquon still did really good with one of the worst RB situations in football. If the only example you can give me is Breece Hall, I don't think you're really proving Saquon didn't do so good in a bad situation.

You say that Saquon was only so good because of volume. But--going to a better situation--his efficiency SHOULD go up, right? He doesn't need 400 touches at 3.9 yards a carry--because he probably won't be at 3.9 yards per carry anymore.

Swift had 268 touches in 16 games, which extrapolates to 285 in 17 games. So we're almost to 300 touches there alone.
The Eagles combined for 22 rushing touchdowns. Hurts took 15 of those. With Kelce retiring, it's possible they cut down on the Tush push a bit at the goal line.

The Eagles clearly value Barkley more than Swift. They let Swift walk and sign for 8 million a year with the bears.
They're paying Saquon 12 million a year.

I'm not valuing him as a top 5 RB right now, but it seems weird to me to dismiss the improved situation on the basis of "Well, Breece Hall did better with a bad situation."

I didn't dismiss the improved situation at all. I gave projections in which his YPC was .5 higher than in 2023.

I said he was in the RB6-8 range. All I have been really saying is that I don't think he's an elite RB, and that his numbers with the Giants aren't 100% supporting cast based.

I never said Barkley was only good because of his volume, but that his volume often helped him to produce when he was inefficient. That volume is highly likely to come down, as he's simply not needed to be THE offense in Philly, as they have other players who can more than handle being featured. They just extended AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith to big deals. They brought in a pass 1st OC.

I do find it odd how the logic seems to be that with Kelce retired, the tush push will be used less often (which I agree with) but that the rushing TDs overall won't come down. Losing a likely HOF Center is bad news for everyone. That's the main reason I think Barkley will have a lower YPC than Swift or Sanders have the last 2 years, because the middle won't be anywhere near as strong, even if I agree its still quite a bit better than what the NYG had, and that he's better than those guys.

If you don't have him as a top-5 RB either, then I'm not 100% sure what we are really even disagreeing about. But if you disagree with me on the points I'm making, I'm struggling to see how he wouldn't be a top-5 RB for you.

Not sure I'd call Kellen Moore a pass-first OC. His teams top 2 RBs finished with 387, 345, 367, 424 and 286 attempts. The Eagles top 2 backs had 313 attempts last season. So his backs get more than enough rushing attempts (sans last season). I had to use the top 2 because, Zeke had 301 rushes in Moores first season in Dallas and then Pollard started eating into his carries more and more until by year 4 they were basically splitting carries. I'd say 2019 Zeke would be the workload Barkley will see (17-18 rushes/gm), similar workload to his last two seasons in New York. I also think the Eagles are going to be moving away from designed runs for Hurts.

I think Barkley, if he stays healthy, is in for a big year. Something like 275-1350-15 and 60-450-2.

EDIT: This prediction is subject to change once training camp starts. But I'll nail down my Barkley predictions once reports from camp come out and I can see how the Eagles are using him in practice.

 

[jm192]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

I'd argue talent is also keeping him from #1 overall RB. He's nowhere near the player CMC is, really at anything, even power running. Barkley is a good player, but man, he gets a lot of leeway for his numbers, because the Giants weren't good. Lots of other RBs produced more in situations just as bad. Barkley hasn't been a great tackle breaker or a high-end pass catcher since he tore his ACL. That elite player from 2018-2019 is gone and is never coming back.

Barkley will be good, because he's in a great offense, and should see a big workload, but I don't think he has elite upside at all. I've got him in the RB6 to RB8 range, as a 2/3 turn kind of guy. Which likely means he may as well not even be on my board.

Hurts, probably well, hurts as well. Both from a TD aspect, and a reception aspect. I think 40 catches is a fair over/under in this offense. Maybe 8-10 TDs. I'd consider it a minor upset if he topped 300 touches. I'm not confident he's the best RB (NFL or fantasy) that changed teams this offseason.

I thought Saquon had a really good year last year.

962 rushing yards in 14 games--on pace for 1168 in 17 games.
10 Total touchdowns in 14 games.
41 receptions--on pace for ~50 receptions in a full 17 games.

He finished as RB12 overall in 0.5 PPR.

The Giants lost their starting Quarterback.
They had no quality playmakers at the receiver position.
They had one of the worst offensive lines in football. PFF had them at 29 going into last year. I can't find this year's, but FBG has them at 27.

Guys that finished above Saquon:
1. CMC
2. Mostert
3. ETN
4. Breece Hall
5. Mixon
6. Kyren
7. White
8. Henry
9. Robinson
10. Gibbs
11. Cook

Of the above--who had a situation just as bad?

Breece didn't have his starting QB, but he had a competent WR in Garrett Wilson that the defense at least had to consider.
Mixon lost his starting QB, but had Chase and Higgins. Higgins missed some time but played 12 games.
Henry wound up with Levis at QB--but again, at least had Hopkins.

I just really don't look at the list and think "A lot of RB's had equally bad situations and did even better." I think Saquons probably was the worst. I don't think Saquon winds up as RB1 overall. I have him around 7 or 8 in my redraft rankings. But I certainly think the #1 overall RB upside exists in this much better situation. I certainly don't think we're giving him too much credit for the Giants bad situation.

I wasn't singling out last season when I said other RB have produced more in just as bad. However, I would argue Breece Hall had did more with less. Garrett Wilson helps, but the Jets OL was every bit as bad, and Zach Wilson was worse than anyone the NYG trotted out, especially Tyrod Taylor. The Jets agree as they signed Tyrod to replace Wilson. One issue I have with Barkley is that I think his lack of supporting cast, is also why his workload has been so big. I'd be shocked if the Eagles used him as much as NY did. He's been option #1 for them his entire career. In Philly he won't be.

I just haven't been very impressed with Barkley since his ACL tear. He doesn't break tackles in the open field anymore. Yes, the teams were sitting on him making it easier to stop him, but he didn't really elevate much beyond what was blocked. The last 2 seasons he's been 23rd and 42nd in Yards after contact per attempt, that is very much an individual stat, that can't be blamed much on supporting cast. For comparisons sake, Breece Hall is 1st and 4th the last 2 years. Derrick Henry was 5th and 9th. Its not the end all be all obviously, but I think its one of a few reasons I don't see his upside being anywhere near #1 overall, unless Barkley himself plays a lot better than he has since 2019. That feels unlikely to me.

I've got Barkley having a season along the lines of:
250 carries
1100 yards
4.4 YPC
8 rush TDs

40 catches
300 yards
7.5 YPR
2 TD catches

That's mid to low RB1 numbers, so I don't hate him by any means, but I think he's still being treated like he's the same player he was 5 years ago, and he's just not. I've got him in the RB6-8 range. I think he and Jacobs are somewhat similar. I don't think he's as safe a bet as Henry is. I think guys who may see smaller workloads like Gibbs or Achane both have higher ceilings. I like him more than Kyren or Etienne.

I wouldn't say Breece had it worse. But I don't know that it's worth arguing either.

Breece is one of the best RB's in football real or fantasy. So to say that he did more than Saquon in a bad situation--that doesn't really count as a knock against Saquon. Saquon still did really good with one of the worst RB situations in football. If the only example you can give me is Breece Hall, I don't think you're really proving Saquon didn't do so good in a bad situation.

You say that Saquon was only so good because of volume. But--going to a better situation--his efficiency SHOULD go up, right? He doesn't need 400 touches at 3.9 yards a carry--because he probably won't be at 3.9 yards per carry anymore.

Swift had 268 touches in 16 games, which extrapolates to 285 in 17 games. So we're almost to 300 touches there alone.
The Eagles combined for 22 rushing touchdowns. Hurts took 15 of those. With Kelce retiring, it's possible they cut down on the Tush push a bit at the goal line.

The Eagles clearly value Barkley more than Swift. They let Swift walk and sign for 8 million a year with the bears.
They're paying Saquon 12 million a year.

I'm not valuing him as a top 5 RB right now, but it seems weird to me to dismiss the improved situation on the basis of "Well, Breece Hall did better with a bad situation."

I didn't dismiss the improved situation at all. I gave projections in which his YPC was .5 higher than in 2023.

I said he was in the RB6-8 range. All I have been really saying is that I don't think he's an elite RB, and that his numbers with the Giants aren't 100% supporting cast based.

I never said Barkley was only good because of his volume, but that his volume often helped him to produce when he was inefficient. That volume is highly likely to come down, as he's simply not needed to be THE offense in Philly, as they have other players who can more than handle being featured. They just extended AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith to big deals. They brought in a pass 1st OC.

I do find it odd how the logic seems to be that with Kelce retired, the tush push will be used less often (which I agree with) but that the rushing TDs overall won't come down. Losing a likely HOF Center is bad news for everyone. That's the main reason I think Barkley will have a lower YPC than Swift or Sanders have the last 2 years, because the middle won't be anywhere near as strong, even if I agree its still quite a bit better than what the NYG had, and that he's better than those guys.

If you don't have him as a top-5 RB either, then I'm not 100% sure what we are really even disagreeing about. But if you disagree with me on the points I'm making, I'm struggling to see how he wouldn't be a top-5 RB for you.

I think at this point in season, process is more important than conclusions--because let's face it--we're all guessing. We both have Barkley around RB6. I think his upside is higher. You seem to keep implying it isn't. And you're certainly entitled to your own opinion. But the arguments you keep presenting to support them seem to be flawed.

I don't know how you conclude/prove that his stats on NYG aren't supporting cast based. He had one of, if not the worst, supporting cast in football. You cited lack of broken tackles. Someone else posted that he had 1 less broken tackle than CMC.

You keep saying that the volume helped him when he was inefficient. And he won't get the same volume. But he'll be more efficient by virtue of a better supporting cast that gets more yards and touchdowns. So the whole "His volume won't be the same" seems like a flawed reason to limit his upside. Volume certainly matters, but Gibbs is in everyone's top 5. Why? Efficiency, right? So if Saquon's efficiency improves to a certain point--he could certainly finish better than RB6.

On the tush push point: I think Kelce is extremely important to that specifically. I think because of the practice and timing that goes into perfect that--and his ability to get low and win at such an elite level--he'll be missed on that play the most. Whoever they get will be a downgrade. But I don't know that they'll be incompetent at run blocking. They may not be as good as Kelce. But I don't think the fall off will be as dramatic as it was on the tush push plays. I could be wrong.

 

[menobrown]

On the tush push point: I think Kelce is extremely important to that specifically. I think because of the practice and timing that goes into perfect that--and his ability to get low and win at such an elite level--he'll be missed on that play the most.

Not looking to wade into the Barkley debate but will say I don't agree with this.

Jalen Hurts is what makes the tush push play. He's a QB who dead lifts 620 pounds. That's what makes that play work. That play won't lose any efficiency.

 

[Soulfly3]

On the tush push point: I think Kelce is extremely important to that specifically. I think because of the practice and timing that goes into perfect that--and his ability to get low and win at such an elite level--he'll be missed on that play the most.

Not looking to wade into the Barkley debate but will say I don't agree with this.

Jalen Hurts is what makes the tush push play. He's a QB who dead lifts 620 pounds. That's what makes that play work. That play won't lose any efficiency.

Saquon can dead lift 6200 pounds tho, or whatever the starting lineup of the Giants weighs.

 

[Snotbubbles]

The playcalling and "Tush Push" are the only things keeping him from being in the argument for #1 RB overall.

But those are two very big things to be concerned about.

I'd argue talent is also keeping him from #1 overall RB. He's nowhere near the player CMC is, really at anything, even power running. Barkley is a good player, but man, he gets a lot of leeway for his numbers, because the Giants weren't good. Lots of other RBs produced more in situations just as bad. Barkley hasn't been a great tackle breaker or a high-end pass catcher since he tore his ACL. That elite player from 2018-2019 is gone and is never coming back.

Barkley will be good, because he's in a great offense, and should see a big workload, but I don't think he has elite upside at all. I've got him in the RB6 to RB8 range, as a 2/3 turn kind of guy. Which likely means he may as well not even be on my board.

Hurts, probably well, hurts as well. Both from a TD aspect, and a reception aspect. I think 40 catches is a fair over/under in this offense. Maybe 8-10 TDs. I'd consider it a minor upset if he topped 300 touches. I'm not confident he's the best RB (NFL or fantasy) that changed teams this offseason.

I thought Saquon had a really good year last year.

962 rushing yards in 14 games--on pace for 1168 in 17 games.
10 Total touchdowns in 14 games.
41 receptions--on pace for ~50 receptions in a full 17 games.

He finished as RB12 overall in 0.5 PPR.

The Giants lost their starting Quarterback.
They had no quality playmakers at the receiver position.
They had one of the worst offensive lines in football. PFF had them at 29 going into last year. I can't find this year's, but FBG has them at 27.

Guys that finished above Saquon:
1. CMC
2. Mostert
3. ETN
4. Breece Hall
5. Mixon
6. Kyren
7. White
8. Henry
9. Robinson
10. Gibbs
11. Cook

Of the above--who had a situation just as bad?

Breece didn't have his starting QB, but he had a competent WR in Garrett Wilson that the defense at least had to consider.
Mixon lost his starting QB, but had Chase and Higgins. Higgins missed some time but played 12 games.
Henry wound up with Levis at QB--but again, at least had Hopkins.

I just really don't look at the list and think "A lot of RB's had equally bad situations and did even better." I think Saquons probably was the worst. I don't think Saquon winds up as RB1 overall. I have him around 7 or 8 in my redraft rankings. But I certainly think the #1 overall RB upside exists in this much better situation. I certainly don't think we're giving him too much credit for the Giants bad situation.

I wasn't singling out last season when I said other RB have produced more in just as bad. However, I would argue Breece Hall had did more with less. Garrett Wilson helps, but the Jets OL was every bit as bad, and Zach Wilson was worse than anyone the NYG trotted out, especially Tyrod Taylor. The Jets agree as they signed Tyrod to replace Wilson. One issue I have with Barkley is that I think his lack of supporting cast, is also why his workload has been so big. I'd be shocked if the Eagles used him as much as NY did. He's been option #1 for them his entire career. In Philly he won't be.

I just haven't been very impressed with Barkley since his ACL tear. He doesn't break tackles in the open field anymore. Yes, the teams were sitting on him making it easier to stop him, but he didn't really elevate much beyond what was blocked. The last 2 seasons he's been 23rd and 42nd in Yards after contact per attempt, that is very much an individual stat, that can't be blamed much on supporting cast. For comparisons sake, Breece Hall is 1st and 4th the last 2 years. Derrick Henry was 5th and 9th. Its not the end all be all obviously, but I think its one of a few reasons I don't see his upside being anywhere near #1 overall, unless Barkley himself plays a lot better than he has since 2019. That feels unlikely to me.

I've got Barkley having a season along the lines of:
250 carries
1100 yards
4.4 YPC
8 rush TDs

40 catches
300 yards
7.5 YPR
2 TD catches

That's mid to low RB1 numbers, so I don't hate him by any means, but I think he's still being treated like he's the same player he was 5 years ago, and he's just not. I've got him in the RB6-8 range. I think he and Jacobs are somewhat similar. I don't think he's as safe a bet as Henry is. I think guys who may see smaller workloads like Gibbs or Achane both have higher ceilings. I like him more than Kyren or Etienne.

I wouldn't say Breece had it worse. But I don't know that it's worth arguing either.

Breece is one of the best RB's in football real or fantasy. So to say that he did more than Saquon in a bad situation--that doesn't really count as a knock against Saquon. Saquon still did really good with one of the worst RB situations in football. If the only example you can give me is Breece Hall, I don't think you're really proving Saquon didn't do so good in a bad situation.

You say that Saquon was only so good because of volume. But--going to a better situation--his efficiency SHOULD go up, right? He doesn't need 400 touches at 3.9 yards a carry--because he probably won't be at 3.9 yards per carry anymore.

Swift had 268 touches in 16 games, which extrapolates to 285 in 17 games. So we're almost to 300 touches there alone.
The Eagles combined for 22 rushing touchdowns. Hurts took 15 of those. With Kelce retiring, it's possible they cut down on the Tush push a bit at the goal line.

The Eagles clearly value Barkley more than Swift. They let Swift walk and sign for 8 million a year with the bears.
They're paying Saquon 12 million a year.

I'm not valuing him as a top 5 RB right now, but it seems weird to me to dismiss the improved situation on the basis of "Well, Breece Hall did better with a bad situation."

I didn't dismiss the improved situation at all. I gave projections in which his YPC was .5 higher than in 2023.

I said he was in the RB6-8 range. All I have been really saying is that I don't think he's an elite RB, and that his numbers with the Giants aren't 100% supporting cast based.

I never said Barkley was only good because of his volume, but that his volume often helped him to produce when he was inefficient. That volume is highly likely to come down, as he's simply not needed to be THE offense in Philly, as they have other players who can more than handle being featured. They just extended AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith to big deals. They brought in a pass 1st OC.

I do find it odd how the logic seems to be that with Kelce retired, the tush push will be used less often (which I agree with) but that the rushing TDs overall won't come down. Losing a likely HOF Center is bad news for everyone. That's the main reason I think Barkley will have a lower YPC than Swift or Sanders have the last 2 years, because the middle won't be anywhere near as strong, even if I agree its still quite a bit better than what the NYG had, and that he's better than those guys.

If you don't have him as a top-5 RB either, then I'm not 100% sure what we are really even disagreeing about. But if you disagree with me on the points I'm making, I'm struggling to see how he wouldn't be a top-5 RB for you.

I think at this point in season, process is more important than conclusions--because let's face it--we're all guessing. We both have Barkley around RB6. I think his upside is higher. You seem to keep implying it isn't. And you're certainly entitled to your own opinion. But the arguments you keep presenting to support them seem to be flawed.

I don't know how you conclude/prove that his stats on NYG aren't supporting cast based. He had one of, if not the worst, supporting cast in football. You cited lack of broken tackles. Someone else posted that he had 1 less broken tackle than CMC.

You keep saying that the volume helped him when he was inefficient. And he won't get the same volume. But he'll be more efficient by virtue of a better supporting cast that gets more yards and touchdowns. So the whole "His volume won't be the same" seems like a flawed reason to limit his upside. Volume certainly matters, but Gibbs is in everyone's top 5. Why? Efficiency, right? So if Saquon's efficiency improves to a certain point--he could certainly finish better than RB6.

On the tush push point: I think Kelce is extremely important to that specifically. I think because of the practice and timing that goes into perfect that--and his ability to get low and win at such an elite level--he'll be missed on that play the most. Whoever they get will be a downgrade. But I don't know that they'll be incompetent at run blocking. They may not be as good as Kelce. But I don't think the fall off will be as dramatic as it was on the tush push plays. I could be wrong.

I don't see why Saquon's volume will decrease. I think he'll get his 20 touches a game (17 rushing, 3 receiving) and be more efficient with those touches. If he plays 16 games I think he's easily over 1300+ yards and could hit ~1600 yards.

The real question for me is goal line. Will Hurts steal his goal line TDs or will the Eagles give Barkley the TDs. He's going from a team that scored 25 TOTAL TDs on offense last season to a team that had 22 RUSHING TDs last year. He could get 15+ TDs this year if the Eagles OC lets him.

 

[Soulfly3]

fewer goalline carries necessary this year, as quon will be burying them from further out all year (heath withstanding)

 

[VikingFrog]

On the tush push point: I think Kelce is extremely important to that specifically. I think because of the practice and timing that goes into perfect that--and his ability to get low and win at such an elite level--he'll be missed on that play the most.

Not looking to wade into the Barkley debate but will say I don't agree with this.

Jalen Hurts is what makes the tush push play. He's a QB who dead lifts 620 pounds. That's what makes that play work. That play won't lose any efficiency.

If Chris Collinsworth didn’t remind us of his squat and deadlift weights every play would we even care?

 

[jm192]

On the tush push point: I think Kelce is extremely important to that specifically. I think because of the practice and timing that goes into perfect that--and his ability to get low and win at such an elite level--he'll be missed on that play the most.

Not looking to wade into the Barkley debate but will say I don't agree with this.

Jalen Hurts is what makes the tush push play. He's a QB who dead lifts 620 pounds. That's what makes that play work. That play won't lose any efficiency.

I absolutely think Jalen Hurts lower body strength is supremely important to it.
I also think Kelce is very important to it.

I'm not dying on a hill that they will go away from it or cut down on it even. I do think it's possible we see it less, and Saquon can punch in a few more than Swift did.

 

[menobrown]

On the tush push point: I think Kelce is extremely important to that specifically. I think because of the practice and timing that goes into perfect that--and his ability to get low and win at such an elite level--he'll be missed on that play the most.

Not looking to wade into the Barkley debate but will say I don't agree with this.

Jalen Hurts is what makes the tush push play. He's a QB who dead lifts 620 pounds. That's what makes that play work. That play won't lose any efficiency.

If Chris Collinsworth didn’t remind us of his squat and deadlift weights every play would we even care?

Yes because it’s the key to the tush push play

 

[zamboni]

On the tush push point: I think Kelce is extremely important to that specifically. I think because of the practice and timing that goes into perfect that--and his ability to get low and win at such an elite level--he'll be missed on that play the most.

Not looking to wade into the Barkley debate but will say I don't agree with this.

Jalen Hurts is what makes the tush push play. He's a QB who dead lifts 620 pounds. That's what makes that play work. That play won't lose any efficiency.

If Chris Collinsworth didn’t remind us of his squat and deadlift weights every play would we even care?

Yes because it’s the key to the tush push play

Hurts’ leverage/strength is certainly key to
the push, but doesn't matter how strong he is if his knee gets caught in a pile. I don’t expect them to completely abandon the push, but with a powerful RB like Barkley, they can give him the ball more in those spots.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

RB2 on MoP's late-May Rankings
Boys, you're majorly discounting the offense he is about to inherit
I'm sorry but other than CMC there isn't a RB that would excite me as much as Saquon

In 30 games last 2 seasons he has racked up 2,900 total yds, he's good for at least 100-120 yds rush/rec a week for Philly
2,000 rush/rec not off the table IMHO, there's not another RB on the roster in the same category with Saquon
Could be a Top 3 RB for touches this year, don't see him being pulled often

Maybe I am on the HIGH side but I foresee Barkley feasting a lot in this Offense, opp to take him on the 1/2 turn would be too much to pass up
And think of the pairings you can create with him and another RB or two to make an explosive RB tandem/stable depending on how many you can start

 

[menobrown]

On the tush push point: I think Kelce is extremely important to that specifically. I think because of the practice and timing that goes into perfect that--and his ability to get low and win at such an elite level--he'll be missed on that play the most.

Not looking to wade into the Barkley debate but will say I don't agree with this.

Jalen Hurts is what makes the tush push play. He's a QB who dead lifts 620 pounds. That's what makes that play work. That play won't lose any efficiency.

If Chris Collinsworth didn’t remind us of his squat and deadlift weights every play would we even care?

Yes because it’s the key to the tush push play

Hurts’ leverage/strength is certainly key to
the push, but doesn't matter how strong he is if his knee gets caught in a pile. I don’t expect them to completely abandon the push, but with a powerful RB like Barkley, they can give him the ball more in those spots.

I think this is the second time I referenced that Hurts is the key to the tush push play, not Kelce, that someone has come back to reply how Barkely is powerful and would get the ball in those spots. Ok, if you say so, but that's not what I"m talking about and thought I made it clear in my initial post on the subject I was not debating Barkley but simply the role of Hurts vs Kelce in the tush push play.

If we want to talk about what I think the Eagles will find more effective for short yardage pickups I think they will find that Hurts continues to be automatic and Barkley far from it.

 

[Snotbubbles]

On the tush push point: I think Kelce is extremely important to that specifically. I think because of the practice and timing that goes into perfect that--and his ability to get low and win at such an elite level--he'll be missed on that play the most.

Not looking to wade into the Barkley debate but will say I don't agree with this.

Jalen Hurts is what makes the tush push play. He's a QB who dead lifts 620 pounds. That's what makes that play work. That play won't lose any efficiency.

If Chris Collinsworth didn’t remind us of his squat and deadlift weights every play would we even care?

Yes because it’s the key to the tush push play

Hurts’ leverage/strength is certainly key to
the push, but doesn't matter how strong he is if his knee gets caught in a pile. I don’t expect them to completely abandon the push, but with a powerful RB like Barkley, they can give him the ball more in those spots.

I think this is the second time I referenced that Hurts is the key to the tush push play, not Kelce, that someone has come back to reply how Barkely is powerful and would get the ball in those spots. Ok, if you say so, but that's not what I"m talking about and thought I made it clear in my initial post on the subject I was not debating Barkley but simply the role of Hurts vs Kelce in the tush push play.

If we want to talk about what I think the Eagles will find more effective for short yardage pickups I think they will find that Hurts continues to be automatic and Barkley far from it.

When I view the tush push play, IMO it's a combination of multiple factors. If you watch the Eagles tush push, Hurts get the ball from the center, then waits a second, then goes. He's not just pushing ahead, he's finding where the gap is and then going. If the OL wins the battle, Hurts and the push aren't really that important. If the OL loses the battle, that's where Hurts and the push really come into play. It's why it's so hard to stop, you can't just win the battle in the trenches, you got to win multiple battles. When I watch other teams try and do the tush push, the QB almost always just pushes ahead and never waits that second to diagnose and when they do go, they seem to always go high which makes it easier to stop. You gotta find the gap, and get the pads low, it's a tush push, not a back push.

 

[jtd13]

On the tush push point: I think Kelce is extremely important to that specifically. I think because of the practice and timing that goes into perfect that--and his ability to get low and win at such an elite level--he'll be missed on that play the most.

Not looking to wade into the Barkley debate but will say I don't agree with this.

Jalen Hurts is what makes the tush push play. He's a QB who dead lifts 620 pounds. That's what makes that play work. That play won't lose any efficiency.

If Chris Collinsworth didn’t remind us of his squat and deadlift weights every play would we even care?

Yes because it’s the key to the tush push play

Hurts’ leverage/strength is certainly key to
the push, but doesn't matter how strong he is if his knee gets caught in a pile. I don’t expect them to completely abandon the push, but with a powerful RB like Barkley, they can give him the ball more in those spots.

I think this is the second time I referenced that Hurts is the key to the tush push play, not Kelce, that someone has come back to reply how Barkely is powerful and would get the ball in those spots. Ok, if you say so, but that's not what I"m talking about and thought I made it clear in my initial post on the subject I was not debating Barkley but simply the role of Hurts vs Kelce in the tush push play.

If we want to talk about what I think the Eagles will find more effective for short yardage pickups I think they will find that Hurts continues to be automatic and Barkley far from it.

I think it's reasonable to assume Saquon gets stopped at the 1 less often than Swift or Sanders did in similar rushing situations. But yeah Philly ain't messing with what works in a less than 1 situation.

 

[jm192]

On the tush push point: I think Kelce is extremely important to that specifically. I think because of the practice and timing that goes into perfect that--and his ability to get low and win at such an elite level--he'll be missed on that play the most.

Not looking to wade into the Barkley debate but will say I don't agree with this.

Jalen Hurts is what makes the tush push play. He's a QB who dead lifts 620 pounds. That's what makes that play work. That play won't lose any efficiency.

If Chris Collinsworth didn’t remind us of his squat and deadlift weights every play would we even care?

Yes because it’s the key to the tush push play

Hurts’ leverage/strength is certainly key to
the push, but doesn't matter how strong he is if his knee gets caught in a pile. I don’t expect them to completely abandon the push, but with a powerful RB like Barkley, they can give him the ball more in those spots.

I think this is the second time I referenced that Hurts is the key to the tush push play, not Kelce, that someone has come back to reply how Barkely is powerful and would get the ball in those spots. Ok, if you say so, but that's not what I"m talking about and thought I made it clear in my initial post on the subject I was not debating Barkley but simply the role of Hurts vs Kelce in the tush push play.

If we want to talk about what I think the Eagles will find more effective for short yardage pickups I think they will find that Hurts continues to be automatic and Barkley far from it.

If you Search Jalen Hurts Squat: There's a video of him squatting 600 lbs.
If you search Saquon Barkley squat: There's a video of him squatting 585 lbs.

I'll give you, 600 is more than 585. Is 15 lbs of squatting ability the difference in automatic and "far from it?"

I think the tush push is a perfect marriage of a very good offensive line and a fast QB with powerful lower body strength. If Jalen Hurts had the New York Giants offensive line--does the Tush Push work as well? I certainly don't think so.

They may very well stick with the tush push. But I'm not sure why you think Saquon wouldn't have better success with a much better offensive line. Especially since you think Hurts lower body strength is so pivotal to goal line success. And Saquon is very close to him in that aspect.

 

[menobrown]

On the tush push point: I think Kelce is extremely important to that specifically. I think because of the practice and timing that goes into perfect that--and his ability to get low and win at such an elite level--he'll be missed on that play the most.

Not looking to wade into the Barkley debate but will say I don't agree with this.

Jalen Hurts is what makes the tush push play. He's a QB who dead lifts 620 pounds. That's what makes that play work. That play won't lose any efficiency.

If Chris Collinsworth didn’t remind us of his squat and deadlift weights every play would we even care?

Yes because it’s the key to the tush push play

Hurts’ leverage/strength is certainly key to
the push, but doesn't matter how strong he is if his knee gets caught in a pile. I don’t expect them to completely abandon the push, but with a powerful RB like Barkley, they can give him the ball more in those spots.

I think this is the second time I referenced that Hurts is the key to the tush push play, not Kelce, that someone has come back to reply how Barkely is powerful and would get the ball in those spots. Ok, if you say so, but that's not what I"m talking about and thought I made it clear in my initial post on the subject I was not debating Barkley but simply the role of Hurts vs Kelce in the tush push play.

If we want to talk about what I think the Eagles will find more effective for short yardage pickups I think they will find that Hurts continues to be automatic and Barkley far from it.

If you Search Jalen Hurts Squat: There's a video of him squatting 600 lbs.
If you search Saquon Barkley squat: There's a video of him squatting 585 lbs.

I'll give you, 600 is more than 585. Is 15 lbs of squatting ability the difference in automatic and "far from it?"

I think the tush push is a perfect marriage of a very good offensive line and a fast QB with powerful lower body strength. If Jalen Hurts had the New York Giants offensive line--does the Tush Push work as well? I certainly don't think so.

They may very well stick with the tush push. But I'm not sure why you think Saquon wouldn't have better success with a much better offensive line. Especially since you think Hurts lower body strength is so pivotal to goal line success. And Saquon is very close to him in that aspect.

I just highlights Hurts squatting to show he's not a regular QB.

The OL plays a part. Kelce is one of 5 and Stoutland is one of the best OL coaches in the game. So yes, let him coach up the Giants OL and put Hurts behind center and the tush push would be as effective.

I never really thought Barkley was a really great short yardage runner. Ok, not great. He's poweful but a few posts up Snotbubbles references Hurts patience to find the open lane and that's never been something I thought was a strenght of his.

Let's please be accurate here. I never said Barkely would have worst success with the Eagles then he had with the Giants and if that is what you think I meant allow me to correct that thought. What I said was that Hurts is going to be more better at it then Barkley and since he's basically been automatic I don't at all see why that's some kind of hot take.

 

[menobrown]

On the tush push point: I think Kelce is extremely important to that specifically. I think because of the practice and timing that goes into perfect that--and his ability to get low and win at such an elite level--he'll be missed on that play the most.

Not looking to wade into the Barkley debate but will say I don't agree with this.

Jalen Hurts is what makes the tush push play. He's a QB who dead lifts 620 pounds. That's what makes that play work. That play won't lose any efficiency.

If Chris Collinsworth didn’t remind us of his squat and deadlift weights every play would we even care?

Yes because it’s the key to the tush push play

Hurts’ leverage/strength is certainly key to
the push, but doesn't matter how strong he is if his knee gets caught in a pile. I don’t expect them to completely abandon the push, but with a powerful RB like Barkley, they can give him the ball more in those spots.

I think this is the second time I referenced that Hurts is the key to the tush push play, not Kelce, that someone has come back to reply how Barkely is powerful and would get the ball in those spots. Ok, if you say so, but that's not what I"m talking about and thought I made it clear in my initial post on the subject I was not debating Barkley but simply the role of Hurts vs Kelce in the tush push play.

If we want to talk about what I think the Eagles will find more effective for short yardage pickups I think they will find that Hurts continues to be automatic and Barkley far from it.

I think it's reasonable to assume Saquon gets stopped at the 1 less often than Swift or Sanders did in similar rushing situations. But yeah Philly ain't messing with what works in a less than 1 situation.

Absolutely. I like Swift more then most but he was absolutely horrendous at going down on the 1 last year, like a phantom was tackling him.

I'll just put it this way, when the Eagles need a yard they'll continue to feel like Hurts is automatic.

 

[travdogg]

Barkley has always been a little, soft isn't the right word, but in denial of who he should be as a runner. He's 230 pounds and too often runs like he thinks he's Chris Johnson. Just a theory, but I think if he ran more like Derrick Henry, he'd have had a better, AND healthier career, as pretty much all of his injuries have been leg injuries, often from overextending, or from making hard cuts, instead of just plowing over a guy. With the clear exception of the fluke ankle injury where he just stepped on a guys foot on an overthrown ball.

 

[kutta]

Barkley has always been a little, soft isn't the right word, but in denial of who he should be as a runner. He's 230 pounds and too often runs like he thinks he's Chris Johnson. Just a theory, but I think if he ran more like Derrick Henry, he'd have had a better, AND healthier career, as pretty much all of his injuries have been leg injuries, often from overextending, or from making hard cuts, instead of just plowing over a guy. With the clear exception of the fluke ankle injury where he just stepped on a guys foot on an overthrown ball.

He’s had a few sprained ankles and a torn ACL, I think. His other injuries have been very minor.
Are there some particular leg injuries I’m not remembering?

 

[TheWinz]

Last year, Saquon led the NFL with 84.2% of RB touches in games he played. Now he gets a chance to play for a team with a great OL and very good offense? He's only 27 with less than 1500 touches. If Swift managed 66.7% of the PHI RB touches in 2023, Barkley is sure to exceed 70%, and probably by a wide margin. In what universe is Kenneth Gainwell keeping Saquon off the field? I'd bet my house that Saquon finishes as a RB1 unless he gets injured.

 

[Gatorman]

Outside of Injury, who beats Saquon this year at RB?

CMAC? Likely
B Hall? I think he has the same questions as saquon
Bijan, Gibbs, Taylor, Etienne, D Henry? - I am sure one of them "could" beat out Barkley, but assuming you had pick #6 or beyond in a standard PPR draft and Cmac and Hall are gone plus the top 3 WRs would you go Chase, Sun God, Barkley, or one of the other RBs (Lets leave the TE's out of the conversation for now)