JoeKappBudGrant
Footballguy
Last season Dallas played the AFC South and the NFC North. Pollard averaged 24 points per game PPR in his 7 games against those two Divisions. He averaged 9 points in his other 11 games. FWIW.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
RB Tony Pollard, TEN (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Bojang0301
- Start date
Stat Correction
Footballguy
Pollard strikes me as "that guy" this year that has all of the stars aligned. Barring injury, he could very well lead the NFL in total yardage.
Not a Cowboy homer btw, but am seriously considering taking him at 1.02, ahead of CMac, Chubb, Chase, Kelce, Kupp, etc, in one of my upcoming redrafts, if Jefferson goes 1.01.
Zeke gone, no real competition/committee, good offense, and a proven producer. Staying healthy would be my ONLY concern, and that's' simply unpredictable.
Not a Cowboy homer btw, but am seriously considering taking him at 1.02, ahead of CMac, Chubb, Chase, Kelce, Kupp, etc, in one of my upcoming redrafts, if Jefferson goes 1.01.
Zeke gone, no real competition/committee, good offense, and a proven producer. Staying healthy would be my ONLY concern, and that's' simply unpredictable.
Deamon
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
That is interesting but it has to be adjusted for which of those games was Zeke healthy and which was he not healthy. That's obviously a huge factor in Pollard's splits.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Pollard is probably one of the players that gives me the most confusion for this year in fantasy. On one hand, I look and think he's the perfect late 1st/early 2nd round pick given the kind of potential he has, the combo of talent and opportunity. On the other hand, it feels like I've seen this movie 100x before: super efficient athletic back who has always been held to a light to medium workload finally gets a workhorse opportunity and they underwhelm.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He's 210 pounds. It's not like he doesn't have the build to carry the load - he was clearly better than Zeke, but the team had to justify the ridiculous contract they were paying Zeke.
rockaction
Footballguy
Not that I can't form my own opinion, but I wish I'd read this thread and looked at the other draft positioning in my 336-person tournament/league that I'm in, which is 4 leagues with 7 divisions each.
In that league, I took him at 2.03. The earliest he's gone in the six other divisions I have access to is 2.06. I wish I'd taken A.J. Brown or Amon-Ra St. Brown instead. My team would just look a lot better. I think he's perfect at the 2.05-2.08 range. I have no real qualms about his workload, but he's never statistically been a great goal-line/inside the five back, and he might lose opportunities down low to score touchdown points, which are still huge in FF unless you play in yardage leagues. So he gets docked for that.
And can he hold up? We shall see. I think Dallas is going to give him plenty of run, it just depends on where and if they let him finish.
That's my thoughts.
In that league, I took him at 2.03. The earliest he's gone in the six other divisions I have access to is 2.06. I wish I'd taken A.J. Brown or Amon-Ra St. Brown instead. My team would just look a lot better. I think he's perfect at the 2.05-2.08 range. I have no real qualms about his workload, but he's never statistically been a great goal-line/inside the five back, and he might lose opportunities down low to score touchdown points, which are still huge in FF unless you play in yardage leagues. So he gets docked for that.
And can he hold up? We shall see. I think Dallas is going to give him plenty of run, it just depends on where and if they let him finish.
That's my thoughts.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
And 700 of those points were against the Vikings. At least that’s what it felt like as a Vikings fan watching that game.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Oh yeah just seems odd for all of college and pros that teams seem so hesitant to give him much work.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’m thinking his volume goes up, but I still expect Davis or Jones (when he’s back) or another back to take some of the workload off him.
JoeKappBudGrant
Footballguy
Don't I know it. Another crazy stat, the last three times Marvin Jones has played the Vikings in Detroit, he has scored 110 points.
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
this sentiment right here is where I am and it confuses me. i have him in my keeper and based on last year and this year narrative I should be ecstatic to have him at the price point when he was 1b to zeke. but i have a hard time getting excited about him, whether it's the durability concerns or the little voice in my head reminding me Zeke is still out there with his NFL dad always willing to bring him back for cheap during the season, I dunno. He finished RB7 in my league non-PPR scoring and that has to be the absolute floor barring any bugs in the matrix, yet my perception of him isn't anything close to top 5. never bought into a guy with so much reservation before and I see the board stating about the same often. Weird.
Deamon
Footballguy
Exactly this. So many people saying his number of carries were low (He was still #23 in the NFL in carries, while being on the same team with the guy who was #10 in the NFL in carries). They had to feed Zeke for many reasons, and not because Pollard "couldn't handle it". I see no way that Pollard isn't top 10 in rushing attempts this year.
Well of course he isn't going to get 100% of the carries. But he's not going to get 50% of them either. The exact percentage can be debated, but I'm very confident he will be above average in carries. If 16 RBs this year have more attempts than him I'll be blown away.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I was addressing concerns that he’d wear down as the lead back - so was pointing out it wouldn’t be some overly dramatic uptick as there will still be other backs involved. Obviously I expect him to lead the backfield.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Not trying to make an exact 1:1 comparison here on the players involved; but man does this situation remind me of Ekeler and Gordon a few years ago. Ekeler looked awesome his first season. By his second season we are all begging for him to get a bigger workload. Then when Gordon was holding out coming into 2019, a ton of people pulled a 180 and were suddenly worried about what? An extra 2-3 handoffs a week?
Pollard finished as RB8 last season. Guess it depends where you look, but some places I see he is currently being drafted as ~RB9 this season towards the end of the 2nd round. He could technically regress and still be worth where he's being taken IMO. I'm dumbfounded at where the controversy is here. If he was being drafted as RB5 in the middle/late first round, sure, I can see a lot of speculation. He's being drafted for what he already did. Unless you really want to simplify your argument to say "Pollard is in line to get more touches this year, so that makes me like him less than last year". That sounds crazy to me, but yet it seems like what a lot of people are saying.
Pollard finished as RB8 last season. Guess it depends where you look, but some places I see he is currently being drafted as ~RB9 this season towards the end of the 2nd round. He could technically regress and still be worth where he's being taken IMO. I'm dumbfounded at where the controversy is here. If he was being drafted as RB5 in the middle/late first round, sure, I can see a lot of speculation. He's being drafted for what he already did. Unless you really want to simplify your argument to say "Pollard is in line to get more touches this year, so that makes me like him less than last year". That sounds crazy to me, but yet it seems like what a lot of people are saying.
Yea makes no sense at all. When I started doing research this year I was baffled that he was not an automatic 1st round pick
rockaction
Footballguy
It's less crazy than you think. People could be concerned he doesn't hold up and either gets hurt or is rendered ineffective, costing you those crucial end-of-year and playoff games. Another thing not mentioned is his expected touchdown regression. He's not the goal line back and is ineffective when used as such. He's bound to cede carries within the five to one of the other Dallas backs. He scored 12 touchdowns last year over an expected 7-8 touchdowns, per PFF. He's actually due for a regression in that sense.
Those are the good arguments against Pollard. Like I said in this thread, I personally took him as RB7 (the 2.03 in one draft) this year. Everybody's mileage gonna vary on this one, but the above argument makes sense if you're worried about durability and availability.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I don't use the boards over the weekend, so I haven't read the thread on preferred draft spot yet. But Pollard is like 90% of the reason why I favor drafting 8-12 this year, knowing I can snag him on the turn around in the 2nd. This move has lead to the majority of my "favorite" rosters in the drafts I've done so far. This is also because I'm higher on him than some, which I'll fully admit, and is obvious as I'd prefer to draft late 1st and assure myself of him than early 1st and gamble he's gone before my pick comes up in the 2nd. For me he's basically been autopick in the 2nd regardless of where I am.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Those are arguments I can say I see the merit/I don't think they are crazy. I guess I just couldn't disagree more lol. Which is odd for me as I'm typically a middle of the road kinda guy. If they had picked up another RB (and they still very well may), I'd be buying into them a lot more. But I just don't see Pollard ceding touches at the goal line to 175lb Deuce Vaughn. And Rico Dowdle is the epitome of the meme where I'm a little kid at the store asking to buy Tony Pollard and mom was like, "no we got Tony Pollard at home". Sorry ma, that ain't Tony Pollard lol.
I could be blind to all these cases of RBs who've put up numbers and stats and tape like Pollard did with a 40% rushing work load and just went completely off the rails when that got bumped up to a 55-60% rushing work load. But I'm having a hard time remembering any of them. Some JAG Redskins backs from the past decade aren't close to comparable, least not IMO. But end of the day I don't wanna be that guy who just keeps going back and forth about it. Like I said, the arguments you and others pointed out can definitely hold water and aren't crazy to imagine. I just see them as such small percentage chances (where others must just see them as more likely).
I'm excited for the season to finally get here and the week 1 victory laps to start
. I won't partake out of fear of getting bad juju, but always fun to watch people self-quote their correct predictions and conveniently forget all the bad ones haha. Glad to know you're in the Pollard boat with me, you can borrow my rose tinted glasses if it gets too bright out here!
LawFitz
Footballguy
In balanced leagues (SF, 3 WR, PPR), the depth of top talent cascades well into round three this year. In those rounds I typically lean into sure(ish) things. I like Pollard a lot, but he isn’t yet in the circle of trust, which I think is what’s making most people hesitant about him. The early Ekeler comp seems fitting, but I would guess there are plenty of historical examples of the exact opposite too (understudy RB, who looked great as the #2, but then flops when he takes the spotlight). I am not predicting a flop - in fact, I think Pollard's upside is #1 overall RB - I just don't know how to quantify the probabilities with this dude as the range of outcomes feels wide and vague, with multiple known unknowns on top of the usual cadre of unknown unknowns.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Why would Pollard be more susceptible to injury than other first round backs?
rockaction
Footballguy
Because he's never been used in that capacity and this very coaching staff has actually commented in the media about his durability and his physicality once he gets too many touches, which they determined was 16-18.
Adam Harstad has a working theory about RB work which states that, essentially, coaches are better at what they do than we think they are, and you can tell a lot about volume capabilities from how an effective player is used. In other words, if they thought he could carry the rock more, given his efficiency and the incentives that coaches have (to win games), he would be carrying the ball more if they felt like he could. And if the coaches that know him best feel like he can't carry the rock, we should pay attention to that and adjust accordingly.
In this case, we have evidence that the Dallas staff that knows him best on record as saying that they see him as a 16-18 touch guy. They use him as a 16-18 guy. We should weigh that accordingly. He just might be a 16-18 touch guy.
The one contra argument to this is how much of the prior usage was Jerry Jones and Zeke or covering for Zeke's end-of-career inefficiency? That we don't know. But we do know that the coaches are on record as saying he's 16-18 touches and that they've used him that way. There's more concrete evidence weighing in the favor of that 16-18 proposition than the speculative evidence backing the proposition that they were protecting Jones or Zeke.
Glad you-know-who isn't here biting my ankles about this.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Two of the known unknowns resolved today (Zeke and Zack). Bumping Pollard accordingly.
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
Can't complain about the usage so far, or can I? 
Week 1 14/70/2 rushing + 2/12/0 receving and RB5 non-PPR standard scoring
Week 2 25/72/0 ru + 7/37/0 re RB14 non-PPR standard scoring sans Monday Night so at worst a rb18
definitely worth every penny on his adp, but... this drive drove me nuts yesterday
Dallas first and 10 from the Jets 12:
Rico Dowdle up the middle for 9 yards
Rico Dowdle up the middle for 2 yards
Peyton Hendershot right end for no gain
Rico Dowdle right end for -2 yards
Dak Prescott pass incomplete short right intended for Jake Ferguson
Brandon Aubrey 21 yard field goal
Pollard wasn't in the game on any of these playes except the last incomplete pass to Fergusson. C'mon Mike, put your bellcow in the game in the redzone!
Week 1 14/70/2 rushing + 2/12/0 receving and RB5 non-PPR standard scoring
Week 2 25/72/0 ru + 7/37/0 re RB14 non-PPR standard scoring sans Monday Night so at worst a rb18
definitely worth every penny on his adp, but... this drive drove me nuts yesterday
Dallas first and 10 from the Jets 12:
Rico Dowdle up the middle for 9 yards
Rico Dowdle up the middle for 2 yards
Peyton Hendershot right end for no gain
Rico Dowdle right end for -2 yards
Dak Prescott pass incomplete short right intended for Jake Ferguson
Brandon Aubrey 21 yard field goal
Pollard wasn't in the game on any of these playes except the last incomplete pass to Fergusson. C'mon Mike, put your bellcow in the game in the redzone!
Stat Correction
Footballguy
Hasn't been given the opportunity imho.
However, gotta say that I'm more than a little disappointed. Not sure what the problem is.....o-line? play calling? or just him?
The last couple of seasons he has looked unstoppable when on the field, but is really looking like a JAG this year.
Things are gonna have to turn around pretty quickly to return draft value.
SproutDaddy
Footballguy
Outstanding analysis as usual.
Thank you
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Dallas just slams him into the pile over and over again. Where are the outside runs? Screens? He used to be a weapon and they turned him into old Zeke.
He's great in space LIKE A CHANGE OF PACE BACK. You need a bruiser like Zeke or david montgomery.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
It’s painful to watch a waste of talent. Get him in space.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Dallas needs to use him like Pollard, not like a bruiser.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
You can’t just run outside every time. He’s a backup.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Dallas needs to use Pollard like Pollard?
Nfl doesn't work like that. That's why he's not an every down back.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
How about sometimes? Start Rico then. My favorite is slamming Pollard into the pile 4 or 5 times then bringing in Rico for a screen.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I don’t know what to tell you if you think Dallas is using Pollard properly. He isn’t a bruiser, Why use him that way?
ericttspikes
Footballguy
Dowdle is perfectly capable of getting 2 ypc up the gut.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Because running the football effectively as a team includes between the tackles. Seems the Cowboys and the fantasy community crowned his *** as an every down RB before they ever got to see him as an every down RB. Pretty common error IMO.
MCFootball123
Footballguy
New Pollard owner as of last week because I thought he was the best buy low in fantasy. Hadn't watched him closely yet this year. To my eyes I don't see Pollard looking really bad. They the call the most unimaginative plays ever for a guy who excels in space. I am not saying Pollard can or can't be a 20 carry bell cow every week, but why wouldn't you call plays to his strengths? I understand you have to run it between the tackles, but if Pollard is my RB I sprinkle that in - not run it right up the centers *** 15 times. Before I bought Pollard I may have underestimated how bad McCarthy really is. My only hope is they come out of the bye week with a better overall scheme - Dak looks average, O-line is giving Pollard no room inside.
In terms of Pollard "holding up" to the load - he's one of the few high usage RB's to not have any injury issues and going into the bye healthy. I don't see this as much a Pollard can't handle it problem as it is the Dallas O just not right. Ask CeeDee owners how it's going - he's still super talented. I blame McCarthy.
In terms of Pollard "holding up" to the load - he's one of the few high usage RB's to not have any injury issues and going into the bye healthy. I don't see this as much a Pollard can't handle it problem as it is the Dallas O just not right. Ask CeeDee owners how it's going - he's still super talented. I blame McCarthy.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
This. That’s why every down backs are so magical. Because they can do it all and never come off the field, defenses have a far more difficult time diagnosing a play.
Everyone says to have all these backs who different things but I f you only run Pollard outside and bring in another guy to run between the tackles defenses will know what’s coming.
This is a VERY simple game. People (coaches, fans, front offices,) all try and re-invent the wheel.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
How are fans rev-inventing anything? What the Cowboys did last year worked perfectly fine for Pollard. Do that. Use Dowdle, or get Fournette off the couch, to play last year's 3.8 ypc Zeke and use Pollard like 2022 Pollard. I'm pretty sure fans would be fine with that.
MCFootball123
Footballguy
Agreed and to take a step further - even when I watch the inside runs, I don't see Pollard missing holes at all. I see very little room combined with no one being scared of Dak throwing it at all.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
In a round-about way many of us are saying the same thing. Pollard is not a bruising RB and should be used a little differently. He must have runs called between the tackles to keep defenses honest but Dallas is calling those plays too often. Where are the outside runs? Where are the screens? Pollards biggest play last night was the catch in space but that was a broken play.
I expect Polkards runs to be up the gut and assume defenses expect that as well. Those types of runs should be unexpected.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
I didn’t say fans, I was speaking on teams/offensive philosophy.
I don’t disagree with what you’re saying, I concur that they can use JAG in front of Pollard as evidence by what the washed EE did.
But you see in Big D, money talks. The guys with the contract are expected to start. Unfortunately that sometimes trumps talent. That’s how it has always been there.
Imo Pollard is a backup/COP back.
