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RB Travis Etienne, JAX (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter dahabi
- Start date
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
And yet, Devonte’ Williams seems to be getting all of the buzz and hype this preseason. It’s really weird to me. Gordon is not what he once was, but he is still better than Robinson, in my opinion.
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You and others, sure. ETN at 1.01 is a bold take, I haven't seen anything yet to make me think he deserves to be higher than 1.04. But I've been wrong many, many, many, many, many, many, many times before.
From where I sit, my prediction for a year from now is this order: Chase, Pitts, Harris, Williams, Bateman, Etienne
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I get Chase for sure. I only have ETN over him because of positional scarcity. I really like Pitts but I just can't get over the incredible risk of putting a TE in that position. Truly betting on the ultimate outlier. Harris is a 23 year old RB with no juice. Meh. Williams has never been the lead back on a team, we have no clue how he can hold up as a feature back and I still thought Carter always looked better. He is young though. I love Bateman but again we are talking about a 1 year performer who landed on a suspect pass offense.
I think Williams and ETN landing tweaked people’s thoughts. Harris got a great one making him clear cut number one. Had Williams or ETN gone to Pittsburgh I think they would be consensus number one. I know people claim take talent regardless. But the people drafting first round rookie draft have teams in bad shape so they want a step in contributor. Harris is a no-brainer where he’s number one back day 1.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Funny how Chase landing with his college QB despite productive 2nd round 2019 WR and solid slot WR being on the team has been viewed as a dream scenario while ETN going in the first with the best QB prospect of the last decade who targeted him a ton as his college teammate and just a an undrafted FA on the offensive depth chart is seen as a bad landing spot. I admit my immediate reaction was disappointment but once I looked at it, I got over it very quickly. When an ultra-productive 210 pound 1st round RB who has been one of THE prospects for his entire college career comes out with a huge receiving profile and 90%+ athleticism , I can't help but see a 1.01 value.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
There are a couple leagues where I didnt get ETN and a tew more to go.tangfoot said:
I am going to try to trade for him in leagues where I dont.
For the record I have no shares of Harris or Williams. Two shares of ETN. I see him potentially being Kamara like, given his team sucks and will be match up proof. Then may gain more shares like Kamara.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
It may as well have been for my teams in May. I drafted a lot of ETN in rookie drafts. And I am pretty high on him in the 4th/5th in redraft leagues (that I drafted in May).tangfoot said:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
6 shares in dynasty. Too many in redraft but it is 60%. He is way too cheap in the 5th probably still a good value in the 4th though.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
One of the sadder days on this board was when we lost the ability to have those.I wish we had signatures here so we could make this interesting.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Definitely spices things up. Noting like making a Cowboys fan have “JimmyG is my man-crush
“ for a month. 
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
They had to ban sigs because some people were showing us their entire roosters.
DropKick
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I remember that here & at FFToday. It got pretty lengthy & obnoxious. Especially when it was like “here are my 7 dynasty teams”
And alas, out went signature bets along with them.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Can’t you just put a character count on sigs?I remember that here & at FFToday. It got pretty lengthy & obnoxious. Especially when it was like “here are my 7 dynasty teams”
And alas, out went signature bets along with them.
Sincerely,
VikingFrog
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If people could still read my signature or motto, its still this:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
If they bring back sigs, mine will be:
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only."
"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way--in short, the period was so far like the present period that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only."
rockaction
Footballguy
Huh. Mine was brief. I forget it.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
The boards are cleaner without them.
It’s weird to get into a conversation with someone with an inspirational quote threaded in every other post.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Mine was something about going the whole 9 feet.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
I think you having Bateman top 5 is the hot take here. This year is an interesting class when you can omit Waddle and E.Moore and I like the list. WR seems deep and Harris/Etienne are a clear step above the rest of the rbs. I wouldn't take Eitienne at 1.01 but I wouldn't criticize anyone that did.
simey
Footballguy
I think James Robinson is better than being labeled as "just an undrafted FA on the offensive depth chart." He was the best offensive player on the Jags last year. Some may say that isn't saying much, but Robinson was really good even when people were focusing on him to stop.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m not besmirching Robinson at all. He’s a nice RB who played well.
I just see who the Jags drafted in the 1st round. And here’s (former Niner) Trent Baalke on the pick:
according to General Manager Trent Baalke, there was always a chance Etienne would be their guy at No. 25.
“Travis is someone we had penciled in at 25 and were hoping he would get to us,” Baalke told local media after the conclusion of round one of the 2021 NFL Draft. “We had several others as well, but, you know, you always have a plan A, plan B, plan C, 1, 2, 3, however you want to read it. We feel very good about how we ended up the day today.”
So they went into the draft targeting ETN at 25. this wasn’t an afterthought or “hey we missed our targets, let’s take him” sorta deal.
I have no doubt that Robinson will be used this season. He’s not being benched. But I also have no doubt that ETN is multiple times the talent of Robinson, and the new regime didn’t draft a 1st round RB to play WR. Especially a guy as electric with the ball in his hands as ETN.
i know Robinson owners don’t want to hear it, but I believe his days of FF relevance are nearing an end. If I’m reading the tea leaves right, I’m not sure he’ll even be flex-worthy by mid-season.
I have no shares of either player at the moment, but like the Jags, I am also targeting ETN in my redraft league.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think 14/4 is a decent workload projection, though may be eased into it. Based on how much you believe from Meyer it could be more like 10-12 & 5
200 carries / 75 receptions as upside? 170/50 floor?
I’ll happily take that as my RB2/3 in the 5th.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
A couple of things . . .
Between Florida and OSU, Meyer had two guys that would really be considered heavy usage receiving backs / dual threats. In their most utilized seasons, Curtis Samuel averaged 7.5 carries and 5.5 receptions pergame. And Percy Harvin also averaged 7.5 carries and 5.5 receptions. Both of them turned in NFL WR that occasionally ran the ball.
I took a quick look at multiple sites that have 2021 projections and ETN is pretty much all over the map, but his average workload was projected at 160/50.
The other potential issue was using MFL ADP, in PPR leagues, ETN is going as RB15 / overall pick 32. So, sure, I like the picture you painted both in terms of usage and draft position, but I am not sure that's realistic.
Leaving your scenario aside for the moment, do you think ETN projected at 160 carries and 50 receptions would be worth the #32 pick in a PPR redraft league? (Certainly if he were projected at 200/75 he would be a steal at pick 70.)
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
well, I did say 170/50 above so i’m not that far off from those projections.
to your specific question, no. I said I would take him in the fifth round, at his current ADP. that’s more like 49-56.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Like all players, where he is available / draft spot will determine how valuable he will be. ETN strikes me as similar to Gio Bernard, who for the most part has been a 10 carry / 3+ reception / bottom tier RB2 in PPR leagues guy. That would be very similar to the 170/50 projection you mentioned for ETN.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Why would his draft spot determine how valuable he will be? I believe his draft spot will be late for the value he represents.
does ETN know where he’s being drafted in fantasy?
maybe I misunderstanding what you’re saying, because that sounds a bit silly.
I believe his ceiling is higher than his floor. I will be drafting him in the fifth for his floor if he is available there. That doesn’t mean that’s all he’s capable of. I believe he is far superior to Robinson in talent, and I also believe he will start eating into Robinsons roll sooner rather than later.
Also worth noting, I didn’t mention a touchdown projection, which might also lend to more value.
The Bernard comp seems shortsighted.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I meant his fantasy draft spot. I'll give you a for instance. I saw a draft recently where TJ Hockenson went off the board as the #2 TE. Sure, he might be in line for a bigger workload and see more targets (and could do really well this season). But IMO taking him as the second TE seemed way too early (and most likely unnecessary . . . as he would have been available later).
If ETN is available where you are mentioned, I agree he would merit selection there. If he gets drafted where MFL has his current ADP, I doubt I would take him there. I know a bunch of people that are dying to draft him and will draft him way earlier than his ADP, so I doubt he will end up on any of my redraft teams. Different strokes for different folks.
Also worth a mention in terms of Meyer's RB usage as a college coach, he typically had a bell cow RB ran the ball a ton that wasn't anywhere near as active as a receiver. Maybe that's something, maybe that's nothing. Maybe he will mix things up more in the NFL.
As for the Gio comp, Bernard averaged 18 carries, 4 receptions, 145 YFS, and 1.35 TD per game at NC and was the 1st RB selected at pick 37 in the draft. ETN averaged 12.5 carries, 1.8 receptions, 111 YFS, and 1.4 TD per game at Clemson and was the 2nd RB selected at pick 25 in the draft. If you don't think those two are comparable, so be it. We don't know what ETN will do or how he will be used, so that makes a comparison to someone that's actually played in the league a bit harder.
ETN might be faster than Robinson, but Robinson did pretty well last year and averaged 100 YFS a game. IMO, Robinson will probably see 50% more carries than ETN this year (and probably a few more goal line looks), so while ETN will have more catches and receiving yards, IMO they will score pretty similar for fantasy purposes.
Based on my usage projection (which certainly may be off base), I would rather have Robinson 2-4 rounds later in rounds 7 or 8 than ETN in rounds 3-5. Certainly other opinions will vary and are just that . . . opinions . . . which doesn't make them right or wrong.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Can be best summed up as “I would draft him at ADP but I wouldn’t reach for him”
It sounds like MFL peeps be reaching for him bigtime. I think there’s better value in the 3rd.
Likewisw with shock. Yes, I’d potentially grab him at ADP as TE5-6. No, I wouldn’t reach for him over Waller, Kittle, Andrews, Pitts.
This isn’t rocket surgery. I might be high on ETN & I might see potential for a much higher ceiling than some because I do believe he will command a larger role as the season develops (and at the expense of touches for Robinson), but I would not draft for that ceiling nor would I reach for it.
Ideally he’s my RB3/Flex with upside, or, if I go elite TE I grab him as an upside RB2. But I’m not going to panic and reach for him in the early 4th, because that potentially negates whatever advantage I gain from going elite TE. I have ETN tiered with Henderson, Edmonds, Hunt and a couple other guys I see early to late 5th. Not going to lose sleep if I miss him there, I’ll just take my next tanked player at a position that makes sense.
And if ETN’a ADP outside of MFL climbs to the 3-4 range, I’m likely out on him.
But I do believe there’s a lot to be excited about with him, and I believe he’s currently undervalued because people seem to believe he’ll be sporadically used as a receiver, and I think that’s hot nonsense:
Biabreakable
Footballguy
While I appreciate the information in regards to ETN usage in college and some evaluation of Urban Meyer use of Curtis Samuel and Percy Harvin as possible guides to how the coach intends to use him, I also think these numbers are like apples to oranges.
NFL teams use their players differently than they were used in college and ETN is a RB not a WR.
None of us knows what Urban Meyer is going to do. That is the main reason why projections and perspectives about ETN are so varied. The Jaguars and new coach are not a known commodity either, just making predicting for this team a lot harder than other teams, where there is at least some track record of what they do and with what players.
I dont like unknowns. I would prefer to dance with the devil I know over one I don't. But what I do know is that ETN is a very talented player. Talented enough to bypass all of these unknowns and uncertainties and just bet on the player.
NFL teams use their players differently than they were used in college and ETN is a RB not a WR.
None of us knows what Urban Meyer is going to do. That is the main reason why projections and perspectives about ETN are so varied. The Jaguars and new coach are not a known commodity either, just making predicting for this team a lot harder than other teams, where there is at least some track record of what they do and with what players.
I dont like unknowns. I would prefer to dance with the devil I know over one I don't. But what I do know is that ETN is a very talented player. Talented enough to bypass all of these unknowns and uncertainties and just bet on the player.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Perfectly stated. I would absolutely draft him over Edmonds or Henderson.
I wouldn’t reach for him to do so.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Hey, I get it. We don't know what we don't know. Meyer hasn't been an NFL coach before (which IMO won't help any . . .but that's a different topic). Anytime there are changes to a team / staff / free agent additions / new draft picks it gets a lot harder to come up with a range of projected outcomes.
I usually start evaluating a team by how they performed last year and seeing which touches left the franchise . . . in a vacuum, how many carries and receptions are no longer on the roster. That's the other challenge with JAC . . . Robinson is still there and performed very well. He ranked 9th in YFS last season and that included missing 2 games. That just makes the muddied waters even muddier. If I were the new head coach of the Jags, I probably would not have looked to add a RB at the point they did as there were likely other positions in more need of upgrading.
As far as what Meyer did in college vs. what he may do in the NFL, it's just one more thing to review and potentially evaluate. As I posted earlier, it could mean something or it could mean nothing. As always, I look at who is available at the time I have to make a draft pick and who is already on my roster. ETN will most likely be gone before I would consider him, so in my case I probably wouldn't draft him unless he fell farther than he should. But if I already had some other backs on my roster, I still might not take him. That doesn't mean anything at all about how he will do or not do this year . . . only that he probably won't make it on to one of my teams this year and that doesn't mean I am suggested he's not worth drafting.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah well I have looked into the Jaguars and in a large part due to my interest in ETN.
What I found out is that despite not being a good team the Jaguars have produced a top 10 RB 2 out of the last 3 seasons. They are doing something right there.
ETN talent > Robinson = a lot more upside that people might be thinking here...
Me either but Meyer said he wanted to pick Toney and since 99% of teams lie the other way I believe it. Past that I'll speculate that his goal was to add a weapon to the offense that had speed and ETN was their BPA for that role. As such I don't think he was drafted to replace Robinson or as an indictment on how the team feels about Robinson, he was drafted to bring a speed based weapon to the offense.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I don't have the time (or probably the desire) to look it up. But how many times has a team had a RB that averaged 100+ YFS scrimmage in Year X, had the same RB on the roster in Year X + 1, and added a different RB that did better than the the first guy in Year X + 1 (unless there was an injury). That would be difficult to figure out quickly and easily, but I can't imagine that's happened very often.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah all of that makes for some pretty random stuff about different teams with a very narrow sample size that will tells not much very useful.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I agree it is probably too small and narrow a sample but did Chester Taylor/AP fit this when AP came in as a rookie and blew it up? I seem to remember thinking Taylor was really good and had bad luck by being drafted over like that. I don't think it matters it just popped in there.
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