RB Travis Etienne, JAX (4 Viewers)

[The Frankman]

Current mood of rookie FF Travis Etienne owners right now...

 

[JohnnyU]

Current mood of rookie FF Travis Etienne owners right now...

Not so sure it's only the rookie FF owners and probably shouldn't be.

 

[SoBeDad]

D'Ernest Johnson is a play for those in desperation. A few receptions and up to 5-8 carries. He got some early carries in prior games.

10 points in ppr, almost a TD if he doesn't skip. NE has been bad versus the run, Etienne could've had a good game.

 

[JohnnyU]

D'Ernest Johnson is a play for those in desperation. A few receptions and up to 5-8 carries. He got some early carries in prior games.

10 points in ppr, almost a TD if he doesn't skip. NE has been bad versus the run, Etienne could've had a good game.

.....and I could have invested $5,000 in Microsift stock in 1986.

 

[zamboni]

Travis Pipp

 

[eighsse2]

D'Ernest Johnson is a play for those in desperation. A few receptions and up to 5-8 carries. He got some early carries in prior games.

10 points in ppr, almost a TD if he doesn't skip. NE has been bad versus the run, Etienne could've had a good game.

.....and I could have invested $5,000 in Microsift stock in 1986.

The point not being that Etienne "could've helped your team this week if he had been healthy", but that once he's healthy, even if Bigsby were to maintain his current workload (which he surely won't), Etienne would still have the opportunity to score points.

 

[JohnnyU]

D'Ernest Johnson is a play for those in desperation. A few receptions and up to 5-8 carries. He got some early carries in prior games.

10 points in ppr, almost a TD if he doesn't skip. NE has been bad versus the run, Etienne could've had a good game.

.....and I could have invested $5,000 in Microsift stock in 1986.

The point not being that Etienne "could've helped your team this week if he had been healthy", but that once he's healthy, even if Bigsby were to maintain his current workload (which he surely won't), Etienne would still have the opportunity to score points.

I know what the point was.

 

[menobrown]

Etienne could've had a good game.

In so many words, that's what Pederson said after the game when he said that ETN is still the guy.

 

[Payne]

Etienne could've had a good game.

In so many words, that's what Pederson said after the game when he said that ETN is still the guy.

He said that again today?? I own ETN and I wouldn't play him over Bigsby. lol

 

[zamboni]

Etienne could've had a good game.

In so many words, that's what Pederson said after the game when he said that ETN is still the guy.

He said that again today?? I own ETN and I wouldn't play him over Bigsby. lol

ETN could still be the guy to the extent that he is the de facto starter on the first series.

 

[menobrown]

Etienne could've had a good game.

In so many words, that's what Pederson said after the game when he said that ETN is still the guy.

He said that again today?? I own ETN and I wouldn't play him over Bigsby. lol

John Oehser

@JohnOehser

6.#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on RBs Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr.: “I'm a believer where injury doesn't replace your position. I think you have to have a fair competition. When Etienne comes back, he's just as explosive, just as good, just as powerful, and it's still his job"

x.com

x.com

 

[zamboni]

Etienne could've had a good game.

In so many words, that's what Pederson said after the game when he said that ETN is still the guy.

He said that again today?? I own ETN and I wouldn't play him over Bigsby. lol

John Oehser
@JohnOehser

6.#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on RBs Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr.: “I'm a believer where injury doesn't replace your position. I think you have to have a fair competition. When Etienne comes back, he's just as explosive, just as good, just as powerful, and it's still his job"

x.com

x.com

Something like this

 

[JohnnyU]

Etienne could've had a good game.

In so many words, that's what Pederson said after the game when he said that ETN is still the guy.

He said that again today?? I own ETN and I wouldn't play him over Bigsby. lol

John Oehser
@JohnOehser

6.#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on RBs Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr.: “I'm a believer where injury doesn't replace your position. I think you have to have a fair competition. When Etienne comes back, he's just as explosive, just as good, just as powerful, and it's still his job"

x.com

x.com

Pederson should probably be more concerned about his job.

 

[Payne]

Etienne could've had a good game.

In so many words, that's what Pederson said after the game when he said that ETN is still the guy.

He said that again today?? I own ETN and I wouldn't play him over Bigsby. lol

John Oehser
@JohnOehser

6.#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on RBs Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne Jr.: “I'm a believer where injury doesn't replace your position. I think you have to have a fair competition. When Etienne comes back, he's just as explosive, just as good, just as powerful, and it's still his job"

x.com

x.com

Pederson should probably be more concerned about his job.

That's why you can't believe what he says. If ETN gets 1 yard on his first carry, I could see Pederson immediately go to Bigsby.

The game Sunday could have been the defining moment. Had Bigsby looked average or worse, ETN probably still the guy.
But that isn't what happened. Bigsby looked good and they got the win.

 

[menobrown]

That's why you can't believe what he says

I do though.....and not because I want it to be so, quite the contrary.

 

[Jamesinaz]

Well all I know is I have both now. And started Bigsby this week thank goodness. But now I face wondering every week which or both to start. I mean is it asking too much for clarity? Yeah, I don't think they care about us. And I don't blame them. LOL

 

[RaidersAreOne]

Is it worth buying extremely low on ETN at this point?

 

[Payne]

Is it worth buying extremely low on ETN at this point?

I own him in two leagues and I say no. I think Bigsby has earned the majority of work. ETN might just be a 3rd down back at this point.
Although I guess there is a small chance he could be traded.

 

[Gjallarhorn]

Is it worth buying extremely low on ETN at this point?

I own him in two leagues and I say no. I think Bigsby has earned the majority of work. ETN might just be a 3rd down back at this point.
Although I guess there is a small chance he could be traded.

I am not sure i agree with this. We have not seen a time where both were healthy and Bigsby owned the backfield. Cannot remember which game ETN got injured in the first quarter, but there was talk about Bigsby taking over and ETN got a vast majority of the snaps up until the point he got hurt. I would 100% test the temperature of the ETN owners. If you can get him for a song, he has top12 RB potential if things break right.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Is it worth buying extremely low on ETN at this point?

Depends on what you're giving for him but I'd say yes.

Worst case scenario is a two headed RB attack with Tank. The biggest hurdle for JAX RBs is that the offense isn't great, and they are often playing from behind. So a split of an already limited amount of running plays... doesn't really move the needle. On the positive side, we've seen ETN do it before. He can be that guy.

 

[zamboni]

Is it worth buying extremely low on ETN at this point?

I own him in two leagues and I say no. I think Bigsby has earned the majority of work. ETN might just be a 3rd down back at this point.
Although I guess there is a small chance he could be traded.

I am not sure i agree with this. We have not seen a time where both were healthy and Bigsby owned the backfield. Cannot remember which game ETN got injured in the first quarter, but there was talk about Bigsby taking over and ETN got a vast majority of the snaps up until the point he got hurt. I would 100% test the temperature of the ETN owners. If you can get him for a song, he has top12 RB potential if things break right.

Things change quickly. Bigsby has played extremely well - better than ETN on most metrics. Maybe it becomes more of a timeshare, but I don't see how Pedersen takes Bigsby off the field for long stretches at this point.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

Is it worth buying extremely low on ETN at this point?

I own him in two leagues and I say no. I think Bigsby has earned the majority of work. ETN might just be a 3rd down back at this point.
Although I guess there is a small chance he could be traded.

I am not sure i agree with this. We have not seen a time where both were healthy and Bigsby owned the backfield. Cannot remember which game ETN got injured in the first quarter, but there was talk about Bigsby taking over and ETN got a vast majority of the snaps up until the point he got hurt. I would 100% test the temperature of the ETN owners. If you can get him for a song, he has top12 RB potential if things break right.

Things change quickly. Bigsby has played extremely well - better than ETN on most metrics. Maybe it becomes more of a timeshare, but I don't see how Pedersen takes Bigsby off the field for long stretches at this point.

Even with Etienne hurt, Bigsby is only seeing 66% of the snaps over the past two weeks. This could very easily be a 50/50 time share that makes both players difficult to trust.

 

[Gjallarhorn]

Is it worth buying extremely low on ETN at this point?

I own him in two leagues and I say no. I think Bigsby has earned the majority of work. ETN might just be a 3rd down back at this point.
Although I guess there is a small chance he could be traded.

I am not sure i agree with this. We have not seen a time where both were healthy and Bigsby owned the backfield. Cannot remember which game ETN got injured in the first quarter, but there was talk about Bigsby taking over and ETN got a vast majority of the snaps up until the point he got hurt. I would 100% test the temperature of the ETN owners. If you can get him for a song, he has top12 RB potential if things break right.

Things change quickly. Bigsby has played extremely well - better than ETN on most metrics. Maybe it becomes more of a timeshare, but I don't see how Pedersen takes Bigsby off the field for long stretches at this point.

I do not disagree with that, just the part where ETN was going to relegated to a 3rd down back.

 

[massraider]

Even with Etienne hurt, Bigsby is only seeing 66% of the snaps over the past two weeks. This could very easily be a 50/50 time share that makes both players difficult to trust.

Definitely the way I see it playing out. I have seen no evidence that they are trying to roll with one back.

 

[zamboni]

Even with Etienne hurt, Bigsby is only seeing 66% of the snaps over the past two weeks. This could very easily be a 50/50 time share that makes both players difficult to trust.

Definitely the way I see it playing out. I have seen no evidence that they are trying to roll with one back.

RBBC has always been Pederson's style actually. ETN really became a workhorse the past two years when there was no viable competition, and in particular last year when Bigsby found himself buried in the doghouse early on.

 

[Faust]

Jaguars likely replacing Travis Etienne with Bhayshul Tuten, fastest RB in NFL Draft

 

[eighsse2]

Jaguars likely replacing Travis Etienne with Bhayshul Tuten, fastest RB in NFL Draft

Maybe I'm biased as an Etienne owner, but never heard so much confidence in a fourth-round rookie RB. There are first-rounders who end up being garbage in the NFL. Can't see drafting a fourth-rounder indicating that they're letting him go next year. (Which may or may not be best for Etienne.)

 

[menobrown]

Jaguars likely replacing Travis Etienne with Bhayshul Tuten, fastest RB in NFL Draft

Maybe I'm biased as an Etienne owner, but never heard so much confidence in a fourth-round rookie RB. There are first-rounders who end up being garbage in the NFL. Can't see drafting a fourth-rounder indicating that they're letting him go next year. (Which may or may not be best for Etienne.)

I don’t know if Tuten is replacing him, probably not is my guess and he’s being groomed to be part of a RBBC.

But they would have picked Harvey in early rd 3 and Gladstones response to missing him was saying they’d just get Tuten but thought he could wait.

Does this indicate they are letting ETN go next year or they are hunting for explosive abilities in a RB?

Personally I think both and if they could find someone to take ETN’s salary this year off their hands I believe they’d do it.

 

[scothawk]

There was some pre draft chatter that he was on the block.

I think he is gone next year. Maybe even at trade deadline.

Decent chance that Tank is the bestball or dynasty hero of the second half of the season

 

[dipandglide]

There was some pre draft chatter that he was on the block.

I think he is gone next eyar. Maybe even at trade deadline.

Decent chance that Tank is the bestball or dynasty hero of the second half of the seasob

Tank isn't it

Etienne might return some value this year at his current price. He's a solid RB everyone is writing off

 

[eighsse2]

There was some pre draft chatter that he was on the block.

I think he is gone next eyar. Maybe even at trade deadline.

Decent chance that Tank is the bestball or dynasty hero of the second half of the seasob

Tank isn't it

Etienne might return some value this year at his current price. He's a solid RB everyone is writing off

Yeah, I'm hoping. I wonder what's up with his career arc.

Very highly touted prospect.
Injured entire first season.
5.1 ypc, 7.0 ypt in his second year (and no small sample size, either).
3.8 ypc, 6.5 ypt third year.
3.7 ypc, 4.9 ypt fourth year.

Was 5.1/7.0 a random statistical fluke? Did they have a better line that year? Has something changed about him or his style since then?

 

[Faust]

Jaguars head coach Liam Coen shuts down RB Travis Etienne trade rumblings

 

[warpig33]

Jaguars head coach Liam Coen shuts down RB Travis Etienne trade rumblings

Move along. Nothing to see here. Just another aggravating RBBC.

 

[JohnnyU]

Jaguars head coach Liam Coen shuts down RB Travis Etienne trade rumblings

Move along. Nothing to see here. Just another aggravating RBBC.

I agree, until it is.

 

[Faust]

Jags RB Travis Etienne blocking out trade chatter: 'I just have to control what I can control'

 

[jm192]

He seems like one of the best values in the draft.

He was ~RB11 2 years ago. We were drafting him as an RB1 this time last season. He had a hamstring and shoulder injury. The Jaguars offense as a whole wasn't what it could have been.

Now he's RB34-36 depending on where you look.

He's healthy. He gets Coen who made Bucky a stud. Bucky obviously is immensely talented, but I think at this time last season, you would have told me ETN is also very talented.
With the addition of Hunter and the emergence of Brian Thomas, the Jacksonville offense should be much improved. In fact, if you're looking for that not so good fantasy offense that suddenly up and becomes elite, bet on Jacksonville.

 

[eighsse2]

He seems like one of the best values in the draft.

He was ~RB11 2 years ago. We were drafting him as an RB1 this time last season. He had a hamstring and shoulder injury. The Jaguars offense as a whole wasn't what it could have been.

Now he's RB34-36 depending on where you look.

He's healthy. He gets Coen who made Bucky a stud. Bucky obviously is immensely talented, but I think at this time last season, you would have told me ETN is also very talented.
With the addition of Hunter and the emergence of Brian Thomas, the Jacksonville offense should be much improved. In fact, if you're looking for that not so good fantasy offense that suddenly up and becomes elite, bet on Jacksonville.

I have Etienne and I tend to believe that he's going way too low. But it's still true that Bigsby decidedly outperformed him last year. I don't know where the borderline elite RB that Etienne was during his de facto rookie season went, or if he is still in there somewhere.

 

[menobrown]

He seems like one of the best values in the draft.

He was ~RB11 2 years ago. We were drafting him as an RB1 this time last season. He had a hamstring and shoulder injury. The Jaguars offense as a whole wasn't what it could have been.

Now he's RB34-36 depending on where you look.

He's healthy. He gets Coen who made Bucky a stud. Bucky obviously is immensely talented, but I think at this time last season, you would have told me ETN is also very talented.
With the addition of Hunter and the emergence of Brian Thomas, the Jacksonville offense should be much improved. In fact, if you're looking for that not so good fantasy offense that suddenly up and becomes elite, bet on Jacksonville.

I have Etienne and I tend to believe that he's going way too low. But it's still true that Bigsby decidedly outperformed him last year. I don't know where the borderline elite RB that Etienne was during his de facto rookie season went, or if he is still in there somewhere.

I think there is a really good chance there is great value to be had in the JAX RB group. I have no confidence in who it will be.

 

[Big Nate]

He seems like one of the best values in the draft.

He was ~RB11 2 years ago. We were drafting him as an RB1 this time last season. He had a hamstring and shoulder injury. The Jaguars offense as a whole wasn't what it could have been.

Now he's RB34-36 depending on where you look.

He's healthy. He gets Coen who made Bucky a stud. Bucky obviously is immensely talented, but I think at this time last season, you would have told me ETN is also very talented.
With the addition of Hunter and the emergence of Brian Thomas, the Jacksonville offense should be much improved. In fact, if you're looking for that not so good fantasy offense that suddenly up and becomes elite, bet on Jacksonville.

I have Etienne and I tend to believe that he's going way too low. But it's still true that Bigsby decidedly outperformed him last year. I don't know where the borderline elite RB that Etienne was during his de facto rookie season went, or if he is still in there somewhere.

I think there is a really good chance there is great value to be had in the JAX RB group. I have no confidence in who it will be.

I agree, someone is coming out of that backfield putting up good numbers as I do expect the offense to be better. The biggest problem was their oline was trash. Not surprising Bigsby didn't look too bad last year considering his college team had a horrible oline.

Having said that I think Etienne will be the guy this year assuming he's healthy. I might just start floating offers out there as his current RB ranking is so low.

 

[Faust]

@32BeatWriters
"Travis Etienne was seemingly the focus of the day for the backfield, getting plenty of work and popping off a few impressive runs. Tank Bigsby continued his strong camp and made it to the second level on a few occasions"

https://x.com/32beatwriters/status/1950227537944039860?s=61

 

[jm192]

I still think he's the most dynamic back on the team. And I expect he'll see a lot more out in space touches and passing game work. I think he's someone who succeeds like Bucky Irving succeeds.

Bigsby isn't going away, he'll see a lot of the between the tackles work. And I think he'll be a solid flex play all season.

 

[travdogg]

I still think he's the most dynamic back on the team. And I expect he'll see a lot more out in space touches and passing game work. I think he's someone who succeeds like Bucky Irving succeeds.

Bigsby isn't going away, he'll see a lot of the between the tackles work. And I think he'll be a solid flex play all season.

I can agree with this, but I'd caveat it with its also possible the Jags running game just sucks, and the offense flows through Lawrence, Thomas, and Hunter, and none of the RBs are trustworthy beyond flex status at any point.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I still think he's the most dynamic back on the team. And I expect he'll see a lot more out in space touches and passing game work. I think he's someone who succeeds like Bucky Irving succeeds.

Bigsby isn't going away, he'll see a lot of the between the tackles work. And I think he'll be a solid flex play all season.

I can agree with this, but I'd caveat it with its also possible the Jags running game just sucks, and the offense flows through Lawrence, Thomas, and Hunter, and none of the RBs are trustworthy beyond flex status at any point.

If these things matter at all...Etienne is collecting $6.5M on a 5th year option, he was gone his entire rookie season with injury
Bigsby is getting about $1.4M
Follow the money

That's quite a difference if they are just splitting carries or go RBBC...i feel like Etienne will prove more valuable of the two RBs
Etienne had a yds per carry avg over 5 his first real season in '22 then it dropped to 3.7 and 3.6 the last 2 years
Bigsby 168 carries to Etienne's unbelievable number of just 150 carries last year...I think he will go north of 200 carries this year like he did in '22 and '23
Last year was miserable as Coach Doug got himself run out of town

 

[Grahamburn]

I still think he's the most dynamic back on the team. And I expect he'll see a lot more out in space touches and passing game work. I think he's someone who succeeds like Bucky Irving succeeds.

Bigsby isn't going away, he'll see a lot of the between the tackles work. And I think he'll be a solid flex play all season.

I can agree with this, but I'd caveat it with its also possible the Jags running game just sucks, and the offense flows through Lawrence, Thomas, and Hunter, and none of the RBs are trustworthy beyond flex status at any point.

Coen worked wonders with Tampa’s run game last year.

 

[Instinctive]

I have him at 143 carries for 571/3 plus 13% target share for 57/481/1 receiving. Bigsby getting 238 carries, another 150 between Lawrence and Tuten.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I have him at 143 carries for 571/3 plus 13% target share for 57/481/1 receiving. Bigsby getting 238 carries, another 150 between Lawrence and Tuten.

Why?
New head Coach and Etienne has logged seasons of 220 and 260 carries
If Jax is going with Bigsby and the other guy who was having a nice camp, they need to move Etienne

Etienne has proven he's a lead RB, he didn't have a good season last year.
I'm optimistic he outplays his ADP of the late 7th to the 8th round, should be a nice RB3 target that you will actually use during the season

I respect your projections, just want to point out some things others might be looking at
Love to see Etienne in a more dynamic offense on another team even he was brought in initially as a change of pace guy.
Not sold on Bigsby yet

 

[Instinctive]

I have him at 143 carries for 571/3 plus 13% target share for 57/481/1 receiving. Bigsby getting 238 carries, another 150 between Lawrence and Tuten.

Why?
New head Coach and Etienne has logged seasons of 220 and 260 carries
If Jax is going with Bigsby and the other guy who was having a nice camp, they need to move Etienne

Etienne has proven he's a lead RB, he didn't have a good season last year.
I'm optimistic he outplays his ADP of the late 7th to the 8th round, should be a nice RB3 target that you will actually use during the season

I respect your projections, just want to point out some things others might be looking at
Love to see Etienne in a more dynamic offense on another team even he was brought in initially as a change of pace guy.
Not sold on Bigsby yet

Here is the key info that made me project him that way:

1. It seems like he's pretty much only taking 3rd down work in camp
2. Bigsby was #3 (3.74) in yards after contact per rush last season, while Etienne was terrible (2.3) and Jac doesn't generate a lot of yards before contact (Bigsby was getting 0.8, Etienne actually got around 1.4 and still had a full yard less per carry overall)
3. He had a bad season in real terms (not FF) in 2023 also, Bigsby just wasn't ready for the NFL / ball security challenges popped up
4. He's getting worse. Last 3 seasons efficiency - 5.1 YPC - 3.8 YPC - 3.7 YPC (for reference Bigsby was at 4.6 last year on more rush attempts) and like I said above the underlying metrics like after contact are declining too

So I gave him 30% of rushes and 50% of rushes to Bigsby. I actually think they improved the OL a little and they face an easier run defense schedule projection so I bumped him up to 4 YPC

What evidence is there that he'll go back to being the lead back and playing all three downs?

 

[eighsse2]

I have him at 143 carries for 571/3 plus 13% target share for 57/481/1 receiving. Bigsby getting 238 carries, another 150 between Lawrence and Tuten.

Why?
New head Coach and Etienne has logged seasons of 220 and 260 carries
If Jax is going with Bigsby and the other guy who was having a nice camp, they need to move Etienne

Etienne has proven he's a lead RB, he didn't have a good season last year.
I'm optimistic he outplays his ADP of the late 7th to the 8th round, should be a nice RB3 target that you will actually use during the season

I respect your projections, just want to point out some things others might be looking at
Love to see Etienne in a more dynamic offense on another team even he was brought in initially as a change of pace guy.
Not sold on Bigsby yet

Here is the key info that made me project him that way:

1. It seems like he's pretty much only taking 3rd down work in camp
2. Bigsby was #3 (3.74) in yards after contact per rush last season, while Etienne was terrible (2.3) and Jac doesn't generate a lot of yards before contact (Bigsby was getting 0.8, Etienne actually got around 1.4 and still had a full yard less per carry overall)
3. He had a bad season in real terms (not FF) in 2023 also, Bigsby just wasn't ready for the NFL / ball security challenges popped up
4. He's getting worse. Last 3 seasons efficiency - 5.1 YPC - 3.8 YPC - 3.7 YPC (for reference Bigsby was at 4.6 last year on more rush attempts) and like I said above the underlying metrics like after contact are declining too

So I gave him 30% of rushes and 50% of rushes to Bigsby. I actually think they improved the OL a little and they face an easier run defense schedule projection so I bumped him up to 4 YPC

What evidence is there that he'll go back to being the lead back and playing all three downs?

I've asked somewhere else, what could explain his huge dropoff since his "rookie" season at 5.1 ypc? Randomness is a real thing. But that's pretty significant. You don't just do great and then suck for no reason, I wonder what's up.

 

[Instinctive]

I have him at 143 carries for 571/3 plus 13% target share for 57/481/1 receiving. Bigsby getting 238 carries, another 150 between Lawrence and Tuten.

Why?
New head Coach and Etienne has logged seasons of 220 and 260 carries
If Jax is going with Bigsby and the other guy who was having a nice camp, they need to move Etienne

Etienne has proven he's a lead RB, he didn't have a good season last year.
I'm optimistic he outplays his ADP of the late 7th to the 8th round, should be a nice RB3 target that you will actually use during the season

I respect your projections, just want to point out some things others might be looking at
Love to see Etienne in a more dynamic offense on another team even he was brought in initially as a change of pace guy.
Not sold on Bigsby yet

Here is the key info that made me project him that way:

1. It seems like he's pretty much only taking 3rd down work in camp
2. Bigsby was #3 (3.74) in yards after contact per rush last season, while Etienne was terrible (2.3) and Jac doesn't generate a lot of yards before contact (Bigsby was getting 0.8, Etienne actually got around 1.4 and still had a full yard less per carry overall)
3. He had a bad season in real terms (not FF) in 2023 also, Bigsby just wasn't ready for the NFL / ball security challenges popped up
4. He's getting worse. Last 3 seasons efficiency - 5.1 YPC - 3.8 YPC - 3.7 YPC (for reference Bigsby was at 4.6 last year on more rush attempts) and like I said above the underlying metrics like after contact are declining too

So I gave him 30% of rushes and 50% of rushes to Bigsby. I actually think they improved the OL a little and they face an easier run defense schedule projection so I bumped him up to 4 YPC

What evidence is there that he'll go back to being the lead back and playing all three downs?

I've asked somewhere else, what could explain his huge dropoff since his "rookie" season at 5.1 ypc? Randomness is a real thing. But that's pretty significant. You don't just do great and then suck for no reason, I wonder what's up.

He's losing explosiveness. 26 explosives in 2022, 22 in 2023 (on more carries), 17 in 2024 (rate similar to 2023). He did obviously have the year long LisFranc I wonder if that catches up to you.

 

[steelwind]

I still think he's the most dynamic back on the team. And I expect he'll see a lot more out in space touches and passing game work. I think he's someone who succeeds like Bucky Irving succeeds.

Bigsby isn't going away, he'll see a lot of the between the tackles work. And I think he'll be a solid flex play all season.

I can agree with this, but I'd caveat it with its also possible the Jags running game just sucks, and the offense flows through Lawrence, Thomas, and Hunter, and none of the RBs are trustworthy beyond flex status at any point.

If these things matter at all...Etienne is collecting $6.5M on a 5th year option, he was gone his entire rookie season with injury
Bigsby is getting about $1.4M
Follow the money

That's quite a difference if they are just splitting carries or go RBBC...i feel like Etienne will prove more valuable of the two RBs
Etienne had a yds per carry avg over 5 his first real season in '22 then it dropped to 3.7 and 3.6 the last 2 years
Bigsby 168 carries to Etienne's unbelievable number of just 150 carries last year...I think he will go north of 200 carries this year like he did in '22 and '23
Last year was miserable as Coach Doug got himself run out of town

I agree with you.
I think snap count is tied to what they are paying Etienne this year towards the cap.
Etienne also got a 6 mil signing bonus. In total, he will make about 18 million (12 + 6) from Jax.

We have to consider there are front office decisions being made.
Bigsby still under contract through 2026. Etienne will be UFA next year, he can go wherever he wants.
Maybe Jax front office wants to give Etienne a shot at volume. If he does well they trade him away.
Etienne is about to walk. No way he's staying in Jax.