RB Willis McGahee is STILL Overrated (1 Viewer)

[Bloom]

I don't really see how it matter what Barber or James or whoever did. The bottom line is that EVERY RB in that makes it into the top 5 will need to score a lot of TDs. Saying that Willis is "dependent" on them is true if he is to be a top 5 RB. However, it is true of EVERY OTHER RB IN THE NFL TOO.

the meaning of saying that he's "dependant" on TDs is that of all of the top tier RBs, Willis was second behind only Shaun Alexander in getting the highest percentage of his fantasy points from TDs.

 

[ko-jack]

I don't really see how it matter what Barber or James or whoever did.  The bottom line is that EVERY RB in that makes it into the top 5 will need to score a lot of TDs.  Saying that Willis is "dependent" on them is true if he is to be a top 5 RB.  However, it is true of EVERY OTHER RB IN THE NFL TOO.

the meaning of saying that he's "dependant" on TDs is that of all of the top tier RBs, Willis was second behind only Shaun Alexander in getting the highest percentage of his fantasy points from TDs.

agreed. the point is, if he doesnt score, he wont be a good week for willis. other backs put up huge yeardage totals and catch passes. willis doesnt/hasnt yet.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I don't really see how it matter what Barber or James or whoever did. The bottom line is that EVERY RB in that makes it into the top 5 will need to score a lot of TDs. Saying that Willis is "dependent" on them is true if he is to be a top 5 RB. However, it is true of EVERY OTHER RB IN THE NFL TOO.

Sure all RBs are dependent on TDs to make the top 5. However, RBs who compile more yards from scrimmage are less dependent on TDs than McGahee will be. If you project McGahees last 12 games over a full season he would have 1410 rush yds and 206 receiving yards. According to FBG scoring McGahee would have to have around 17 TDs to break into the top 5. Barber would only need 9, Edge 10, Tomlinson 14, Martin 11. And anyone who thinks with the addition of inexperienced Losman, that McGahee will see more dump offs, then the same would be true with Eli Manning and Tiki Barber.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Bledsoe didn't throw to the RBs nearly as much as he could have. There's no way to know for sure, but I imagine that Losman will be much more willing and able to do so. I don't see how people can be so sure that McGahee won't catch a lot of passes this year. There's really no way to know, but he definitely has the ability to be a weapon in the passing game.

 

[wilked]

People are missing the boat hereMcGahee will do well next year. He will finish with good numbers. He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

 

[jurb26]

I don't really see how it matter what Barber or James or whoever did.  The bottom line is that EVERY RB in that makes it into the top 5 will need to score a lot of TDs.  Saying that Willis is "dependent" on them is true if he is to be a top 5 RB.  However, it is true of EVERY OTHER RB IN THE NFL TOO.

the meaning of saying that he's "dependant" on TDs is that of all of the top tier RBs, Willis was second behind only Shaun Alexander in getting the highest percentage of his fantasy points from TDs.

agreed. the point is, if he doesnt score, he wont be a good week for willis. other backs put up huge yeardage totals and catch passes. willis doesnt/hasnt yet.

OK, so here is what I decided to do. I took the top 10 RBs based on the FBG rankings. I left out Holmes because.... well we know he is a stud when playing. I took the number of games w/o a TD and then the number of 100+ total yard games the had when not scoring:Games with out TD/100+ yds anyway:

LT, 3/1

SA, 5/1

Edge, 8/8

Duce, 6/4

Willis, 6/2

Portis, 8/5

K.Jones, 7/3 though I was not sure if I should count weeks 1 and 2. I did count them though.

Barber, 4/2

Lewis, 4/2

Now I'm not really sure what this shows as it was hard to decide a lot of times how many game to count as many left games early and missed time, ect. I tried to look at the amount of touches though and make sure the got decent work in the game to count it though... say 15+ touches.

Willis does not appear to be on the upper level of this list in any way, but SA and LT are/were last year at the same and worse level. Interesting.

Feel free to check my numbers. Let me know if games that were left off you think should have been included or vise versa.

 

[jurb26]

I don't really see how it matter what Barber or James or whoever did. The bottom line is that EVERY RB in that makes it into the top 5 will need to score a lot of TDs. Saying that Willis is "dependent" on them is true if he is to be a top 5 RB. However, it is true of EVERY OTHER RB IN THE NFL TOO.

Sure all RBs are dependent on TDs to make the top 5. However, RBs who compile more yards from scrimmage are less dependent on TDs than McGahee will be. If you project McGahees last 12 games over a full season he would have 1410 rush yds and 206 receiving yards. According to FBG scoring McGahee would have to have around 17 TDs to break into the top 5. Barber would only need 9, Edge 10, Tomlinson 14, Martin 11. And anyone who thinks with the addition of inexperienced Losman, that McGahee will see more dump offs, then the same would be true with Eli Manning and Tiki Barber.

Manning SHOWED us last year that this was not the case though. Losman has not. Big difference here.

 

[ko-jack]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year. He will finish with good numbers. He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

yea but you are missing the boat in terms of rankings. currently, using FBGs projections, he is ranked 9th. but he is 28 points away from 4th and 27 points away from 18th. rbs 5-18 are interchangeable.what I care about is value. on draft day, after the top 4 rbs go, or even before, manning-culpepper-mcnabb-moss-owens-harrison will all be better values than willis or who ever is rb #5.

the ranking at #5 or #9 means squat, at least to me anyways.

 

[wilked]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year.  He will finish with good numbers.  He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

yea but you are missing the boat in terms of rankings. currently, using FBGs projections, he is ranked 9th. but he is 28 points away from 4th and 27 points away from 18th. rbs 5-18 are interchangeable.what I care about is value. on draft day, after the top 4 rbs go, or even before, manning-culpepper-mcnabb-moss-owens-harrison will all be better values than willis or who ever is rb #5.

the ranking at #5 or #9 means squat, at least to me anyways.

http://footballguys.com/viewrankings.php?v...=rb&howrecent=7And if you truly think that you can pick any RB ranked from 5 - 18 and expect equivalent production, you are out of your mind

 

[Snotbubbles]

For McGahee to get into the top 5 he's gonna have to have in the neighborhood of 1750 total yards and 14 TDs. Last year his total yards/gm over the last 12 games were 101/gm. To get the yardage he's gonna have to:1. Bring his YPC from 3.97 to AT LEAST 4.5, but probably closer to 4.6 or 4.7. Otherwise he'll have to either have more receiving yards or TDs to make up the difference.AND2. He's gonna have to get AT LEAST 350 carries, but if he doesn't bring his YPC up from 3.97 he's gonna have to have significantly more. Since 2002 only 8 people had more than 350 carries. A little less than 3 per year.AND3. He's gonna have to play 16 games.If he doesn't do those things he's gonna have to score around 20 TDs.

 

[ko-jack]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year.  He will finish with good numbers.  He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

yea but you are missing the boat in terms of rankings. currently, using FBGs projections, he is ranked 9th. but he is 28 points away from 4th and 27 points away from 18th. rbs 5-18 are interchangeable.what I care about is value. on draft day, after the top 4 rbs go, or even before, manning-culpepper-mcnabb-moss-owens-harrison will all be better values than willis or who ever is rb #5.

the ranking at #5 or #9 means squat, at least to me anyways.

http://footballguys.com/viewrankings.php?v...=rb&howrecent=7And if you truly think that you can pick any RB ranked from 5 - 18 and expect equivalent production, you are out of your mind

where does it say i can predict them? the fact that i cant predict them is all the reason to draft the very best wrs/qbs and get rb 15, the difference in rbs aint that muchclick on this

http://footballguys.com/currentproj-rb.htm

43 points separate 5 and 18, but lets go to 20 , for a 10 team league, start 2 rbs, 58 points separate 5 and 20. 108 points separate qb 1 with qb 10 (assuming 1 qb league).

i wonder which is the better value

and if were talkin willis, which we are, the difference is 43 points between he and rb 20. really not a lot of difference or there is much more difference between the very best qbs/wrs and their baseline

 

[DonnyT33]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year.  He will finish with good numbers.  He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

yea but you are missing the boat in terms of rankings. currently, using FBGs projections, he is ranked 9th. but he is 28 points away from 4th and 27 points away from 18th. rbs 5-18 are interchangeable.what I care about is value. on draft day, after the top 4 rbs go, or even before, manning-culpepper-mcnabb-moss-owens-harrison will all be better values than willis or who ever is rb #5.

the ranking at #5 or #9 means squat, at least to me anyways.

http://footballguys.com/viewrankings.php?v...=rb&howrecent=7And if you truly think that you can pick any RB ranked from 5 - 18 and expect equivalent production, you are out of your mind

where does it say i can predict them? the fact that i cant predict them is all the reason to draft the very best wrs/qbs and get rb 15, the difference in rbs aint that muchclick on this

http://footballguys.com/currentproj-rb.htm

43 points separate 5 and 18, but lets go to 20 , for a 10 team league, start 2 rbs, 58 points separate 5 and 20. 108 points separate qb 1 with qb 10 (assuming 1 qb league).

i wonder which is the better value

and if were talkin willis, which we are, the difference is 43 points between he and rb 20. really not a lot of difference or there is much more difference between the very best qbs/wrs and their baseline

Imagine this kid had one of the worst knee injuries we have ever seen and is still a beast of a runner. This kid will be heard from and is going to be the Buff Offense this year. I have him in my top five, I love the kids size strength and game. Remember this team finished very strong last year and there D is very good which will help him. I think he will average a TD a game a 100 yards at least.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year.  He will finish with good numbers.  He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

he has just as good of a chance to finish in the top-5 as any RB ranked behind him.

 

[Burning Sensation]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year. He will finish with good numbers. He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

Wilked, who will finish ahead of him?

 

[Snotbubbles]

I think these 5 will definitely finish ahead of him:LTAlexanderEdgeHolmesBarberI also think any or all of the following have a good chance to finish ahead of him:McCallisterMartinPortisGreenJ. JonesK. JonesD. DavisJ. LewisThe following could also finish ahead of him, but it's too early to tellL. JordanS. JacksonT. BellI don't think all of those guys will finish ahead of McGahee, but I expect all from the first group, at least 3 from the second to do it.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I think these 5 will definitely finish ahead of him:

Barber

 

[Snotbubbles]

Please tell me why you think Barber won't finish ahead of McGahee this year.

 

[jurb26]

I think these 5 will definitely finish ahead of him:

LT

Alexander

Edge

Holmes

Barber

I also think any or all of the following have a good chance to finish ahead of him:

McCallister

Martin

Portis

Green

J. Jones

K. Jones

D. Davis

J. Lewis

The following could also finish ahead of him, but it's too early to tell

L. Jordan

S. Jackson

T. Bell

I don't think all of those guys will finish ahead of McGahee, but I expect all from the first group, at least 3 from the second to do it.

So it appears you have 3 tiers here. Where would Willis fall in these tiers, clearly not #1, but #2 or #3?

 

[Burning Sensation]

Please tell me why you think Barber won't finish ahead of McGahee this year.

Because he has only scored more than 4 TD's 3 times in 8 years. He is also now on the wrong side of 30. He set a career high with carries last year with 322, i doubt he gets that many again this year.

 

[ko-jack]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year.  He will finish with good numbers.  He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

yea but you are missing the boat in terms of rankings. currently, using FBGs projections, he is ranked 9th. but he is 28 points away from 4th and 27 points away from 18th. rbs 5-18 are interchangeable.what I care about is value. on draft day, after the top 4 rbs go, or even before, manning-culpepper-mcnabb-moss-owens-harrison will all be better values than willis or who ever is rb #5.

the ranking at #5 or #9 means squat, at least to me anyways.

http://footballguys.com/viewrankings.php?v...=rb&howrecent=7And if you truly think that you can pick any RB ranked from 5 - 18 and expect equivalent production, you are out of your mind

where does it say i can predict them? the fact that i cant predict them is all the reason to draft the very best wrs/qbs and get rb 15, the difference in rbs aint that muchclick on this

http://footballguys.com/currentproj-rb.htm

43 points separate 5 and 18, but lets go to 20 , for a 10 team league, start 2 rbs, 58 points separate 5 and 20. 108 points separate qb 1 with qb 10 (assuming 1 qb league).

i wonder which is the better value

and if were talkin willis, which we are, the difference is 43 points between he and rb 20. really not a lot of difference or there is much more difference between the very best qbs/wrs and their baseline

Imagine this kid had one of the worst knee injuries we have ever seen and is still a beast of a runner. This kid will be heard from and is going to be the Buff Offense this year. I have him in my top five, I love the kids size strength and game. Remember this team finished very strong last year and there D is very good which will help him. I think he will average a TD a game a 100 yards at least.

jamal lewis ran for 2000 with hjis bad knee, how did edge look lately?

 

[Snotbubbles]

Tier 2.

 

[wilked]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year. He will finish with good numbers. He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

yea but you are missing the boat in terms of rankings. currently, using FBGs projections, he is ranked 9th. but he is 28 points away from 4th and 27 points away from 18th. rbs 5-18 are interchangeable.what I care about is value. on draft day, after the top 4 rbs go, or even before, manning-culpepper-mcnabb-moss-owens-harrison will all be better values than willis or who ever is rb #5.

the ranking at #5 or #9 means squat, at least to me anyways.

http://footballguys.com/viewrankings.php?v...=rb&howrecent=7And if you truly think that you can pick any RB ranked from 5 - 18 and expect equivalent production, you are out of your mind

where does it say i can predict them? the fact that i cant predict them is all the reason to draft the very best wrs/qbs and get rb 15, the difference in rbs aint that muchclick on this

http://footballguys.com/currentproj-rb.htm

43 points separate 5 and 18, but lets go to 20 , for a 10 team league, start 2 rbs, 58 points separate 5 and 20. 108 points separate qb 1 with qb 10 (assuming 1 qb league).

i wonder which is the better value

and if were talkin willis, which we are, the difference is 43 points between he and rb 20. really not a lot of difference or there is much more difference between the very best qbs/wrs and their baseline

Use projections, I will use historical datahttp://www.footballguys.com/datadom.php?pt...l=50&mincat=rsh

Look at the difference between 5 and 18, tell me if it is significant

 

[Burning Sensation]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year.  He will finish with good numbers.  He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

yea but you are missing the boat in terms of rankings. currently, using FBGs projections, he is ranked 9th. but he is 28 points away from 4th and 27 points away from 18th. rbs 5-18 are interchangeable.what I care about is value. on draft day, after the top 4 rbs go, or even before, manning-culpepper-mcnabb-moss-owens-harrison will all be better values than willis or who ever is rb #5.

the ranking at #5 or #9 means squat, at least to me anyways.

http://footballguys.com/viewrankings.php?v...=rb&howrecent=7And if you truly think that you can pick any RB ranked from 5 - 18 and expect equivalent production, you are out of your mind

where does it say i can predict them? the fact that i cant predict them is all the reason to draft the very best wrs/qbs and get rb 15, the difference in rbs aint that muchclick on this

http://footballguys.com/currentproj-rb.htm

43 points separate 5 and 18, but lets go to 20 , for a 10 team league, start 2 rbs, 58 points separate 5 and 20. 108 points separate qb 1 with qb 10 (assuming 1 qb league).

i wonder which is the better value

and if were talkin willis, which we are, the difference is 43 points between he and rb 20. really not a lot of difference or there is much more difference between the very best qbs/wrs and their baseline

Imagine this kid had one of the worst knee injuries we have ever seen and is still a beast of a runner. This kid will be heard from and is going to be the Buff Offense this year. I have him in my top five, I love the kids size strength and game. Remember this team finished very strong last year and there D is very good which will help him. I think he will average a TD a game a 100 yards at least.

jamal lewis ran for 2000 with hjis bad knee, how did edge look lately?

Not sure what you are trying to get at here.

 

[wilked]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year. He will finish with good numbers. He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

he has just as good of a chance to finish in the top-5 as any RB ranked behind him.

Nope

 

[wilked]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year. He will finish with good numbers. He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

Wilked, who will finish ahead of him?

Shaun AlexanderTiki Barber

Ahman Green

Priest Holmes

Edgerrin James

Julius Jones

Kevin Jones

Jamal Lewis

Deuce McAllister

Clinton Portis

LaDainian Tomlinson

 

[Burning Sensation]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year.  He will finish with good numbers.  He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

yea but you are missing the boat in terms of rankings. currently, using FBGs projections, he is ranked 9th. but he is 28 points away from 4th and 27 points away from 18th. rbs 5-18 are interchangeable.what I care about is value. on draft day, after the top 4 rbs go, or even before, manning-culpepper-mcnabb-moss-owens-harrison will all be better values than willis or who ever is rb #5.

the ranking at #5 or #9 means squat, at least to me anyways.

http://footballguys.com/viewrankings.php?v...=rb&howrecent=7And if you truly think that you can pick any RB ranked from 5 - 18 and expect equivalent production, you are out of your mind

where does it say i can predict them? the fact that i cant predict them is all the reason to draft the very best wrs/qbs and get rb 15, the difference in rbs aint that muchclick on this

http://footballguys.com/currentproj-rb.htm

43 points separate 5 and 18, but lets go to 20 , for a 10 team league, start 2 rbs, 58 points separate 5 and 20. 108 points separate qb 1 with qb 10 (assuming 1 qb league).

i wonder which is the better value

and if were talkin willis, which we are, the difference is 43 points between he and rb 20. really not a lot of difference or there is much more difference between the very best qbs/wrs and their baseline

Use projections, I will use historical datahttp://www.footballguys.com/datadom.php?pt...l=50&mincat=rsh

Look at the difference between 5 and 18, tell me if it is significant

 

[jurb26]

Tier 2.

Even though I have Willis ranked 5, I see no problem with this. At the same time though, clearly you can understand who several people can rank a RB in that 2nd tier of your as a top 5 guy... right?

 

[wilked]

Tier 2.

Even though I have Willis ranked 5, I see no problem with this. At the same time though, clearly you can understand who several people can rank a RB in that 2nd tier of your as a top 5 guy... right?

Can we get a translator here?

 

[wilked]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year. He will finish with good numbers. He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

yea but you are missing the boat in terms of rankings. currently, using FBGs projections, he is ranked 9th. but he is 28 points away from 4th and 27 points away from 18th. rbs 5-18 are interchangeable.what I care about is value. on draft day, after the top 4 rbs go, or even before, manning-culpepper-mcnabb-moss-owens-harrison will all be better values than willis or who ever is rb #5.

the ranking at #5 or #9 means squat, at least to me anyways.

http://footballguys.com/viewrankings.php?v...=rb&howrecent=7And if you truly think that you can pick any RB ranked from 5 - 18 and expect equivalent production, you are out of your mind

where does it say i can predict them? the fact that i cant predict them is all the reason to draft the very best wrs/qbs and get rb 15, the difference in rbs aint that muchclick on this

http://footballguys.com/currentproj-rb.htm

43 points separate 5 and 18, but lets go to 20 , for a 10 team league, start 2 rbs, 58 points separate 5 and 20. 108 points separate qb 1 with qb 10 (assuming 1 qb league).

i wonder which is the better value

and if were talkin willis, which we are, the difference is 43 points between he and rb 20. really not a lot of difference or there is much more difference between the very best qbs/wrs and their baseline

Use projections, I will use historical datahttp://www.footballguys.com/datadom.php?pt...l=50&mincat=rsh

Look at the difference between 5 and 18, tell me if it is significant

Am I missing something here? Was the other guy just ?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year.  He will finish with good numbers.  He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

he has just as good of a chance to finish in the top-5 as any RB ranked behind him.

Nope

Yep.After looking at your rankings, I see you have Deuce at #5. Well, I like Deuce too, but he finished #17 last year, and his offensive coordinator just got worse. Mike Sheppard called the plays for Buffalo in 2001 and was beyond horrible. Deuce has 17 TDs in his last 30 starts while McGahee has 13 TDs in 12 starts. With Joe Horn and Stallworth emerging in the passing game, Deuce's receiving numbers were his lowest since he became a starter by far.

Why do you think Deuce is so much more likely to finish in the top-5 than anyone else ranked lower than him? How do you group the RBs this year?

 

[Snotbubbles]

Because he has only scored more than 4 TD's 3 times in 8 years. He is also now on the wrong side of 30. He set a career high with carries last year with 322, i doubt he gets that many again this year.

1. He wasn't the starter the first 3 years of his career. But he's done it 3 of the last 5 years since becoming a starter. 2. Tiki only has to put up half as many TD's as McGahee does because of his yardage totals.3. Tiki doesn't have to have as many rushing attempts as McGahee because he gets more 1.) receptions at a higher yards per catch and 2) his yards per rush is higher so he won't need as many to put up yardage.In conclusion...for McGahee to outscore Barber he will have to:1. Attempt significantly more rushes than Barber. Like I said earlier, he probably has to go in the 350+ range, at a higher yards per rush than he did last season probably in the neighborhood of 4.5. 2. He'll have to put up in the neighborhood of 15+ TDs. Considering he scored:2 TDs vs. ARI (27th in yardage, 13th in TDs) 2 TDs vs. SF (20th in yardage, 31st in TDs)2 TDs vs. CLE (32nd in yardage, 32nd in TDs)4 TDs vs. SEA (23rd in yardage, 25th in TDs)2 TDs vs. PIT subs.I'd much rather bank on Barber getting yardage than McGahee getting TDs.3. Play 16 games.

 

[Burning Sensation]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year.  He will finish with good numbers.  He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

Wilked, who will finish ahead of him?

Shaun AlexanderTiki Barber

Ahman Green

Priest Holmes

Edgerrin James

Julius Jones

Kevin Jones

Jamal Lewis

Deuce McAllister

Clinton Portis

LaDainian Tomlinson

Alexander, ok, i will give you that.Barber, he had a career year last year, you think he will do it again now that he is 30?

Green, for a guy(you) who bases most of his projections on last years stats, i am suprised you even mentioned him. 15 games played, 1400 total yards and 8 TD's last year. Not to mention GB lost half its starting OLine in the offseason.

Holmes, if he stays healthy, and thats a BIG if, i agree, although i see LJ getting alot of carries in Vermeils attempt to keep Priest Helthy for a playoff run.

Edge, i have him right there with Mcgahee, so it would not suprise me to see him finish higher than Willis.

Julius Jones, every single argument you have made against Mcgahee goes against JJones as well. Except Mcgahee is the better pedigree, and is more proven.

KJones, I am a big fan of him and can certainly see this happening.

Deuce, most who have been around here know i have a small mancrush on Deuce, but as long as Haslett is still coaching, i cant see him finishing in the top 5.

Portis, did he get traded back to the Broncos?!?!?!?! What about his 3.8 YPC and 5 TD's last year, and his 235 yards receiving is it that you like? He had 343 carries, so it is not as if he didnt have an oppurtunity to succeed.

Tomlinson, OK

 

[wilked]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year. He will finish with good numbers. He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

he has just as good of a chance to finish in the top-5 as any RB ranked behind him.

Nope

Yep.After looking at your rankings, I see you have Deuce at #5. Well, I like Deuce too, but he finished #17 last year, and his offensive coordinator just got worse. Mike Sheppard called the plays for Buffalo in 2001 and was beyond horrible. Deuce has 17 TDs in his last 30 starts while McGahee has 13 TDs in 12 starts. With Joe Horn and Stallworth emerging in the passing game, Deuce's receiving numbers were his lowest since he became a starter by far.

Why do you think Deuce is so much more likely to finish in the top-5 than anyone else ranked lower than him? How do you group the RBs this year?

Those were an early first pass...Deuce has dropped since thenRegardless, I do think that Deuce will finish better than McGahee, and certainly better than last year. Last year he saw his carries drop 20% from his previous 2 year average, and his receptions cut in half. As a result, the Saints had a horrible season. The Saints are aware of this, and you can see that the last 4 games of the season his carries/game returned to his normal rate. Notice that they won those last 4 games. He will again be the focus of their offense this year, and return to top-10 form

 

[wilked]

Most people are missing the boat on J Jones. I am in the middle of writing an article on him, but see him as the biggest value at RB this year, ahead of Tiki

 

[Snotbubbles]

Most people are missing the boat on J Jones. I am in the middle of writing an article on him, but see him as the biggest value at RB this year, ahead of Tiki

I'm starting to agree with this. On a per game average he scored higher than McGahee. Looking at his numbers he could get close to 1800 total yards.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

Regardless, I do think that Deuce will finish better than McGahee, and certainly better than last year.  Last year he saw his carries drop 20% from his previous 2 year average, and his receptions cut in half.  As a result, the Saints had a horrible season.  The Saints are aware of this, and you can see that the last 4 games of the season his carries/game returned to his normal rate.  Notice that they won those last 4 games.  He will again be the focus of their offense this year, and return to top-10 form

notice that the Bills went 9-3 in the games that Willis started when he put up top-10 numbers despite missing nearly 25% of the season. The Bills are aware of this and he will again be the focus of their offense this year, and MAINTAIN his top-10 form.

 

[Snotbubbles]

notice that the Bills went 9-3 in the games that Willis started when he put up top-10 numbers despite missing nearly 25% of the season. The Bills are aware of this and he will again be the focus of their offense this year, and MAINTAIN his top-10 form

.Agree. Probably a 9 or 10 finish.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

notice that the Bills went 9-3 in the games that Willis started when he put up top-10 numbers despite missing nearly 25% of the season. The Bills are aware of this and he will again be the focus of their offense this year, and MAINTAIN his top-10 form

.Agree. Probably a 9 or 10 finish.

so, assuming he gets 16 starts this year, you think he'll finish in the same exact spot he did last year or possibly 1 spot lower?

 

[wilked]

Regardless, I do think that Deuce will finish better than McGahee, and certainly better than last year. Last year he saw his carries drop 20% from his previous 2 year average, and his receptions cut in half. As a result, the Saints had a horrible season. The Saints are aware of this, and you can see that the last 4 games of the season his carries/game returned to his normal rate. Notice that they won those last 4 games. He will again be the focus of their offense this year, and return to top-10 form

notice that the Bills went 9-3 in the games that Willis started when he put up top-10 numbers despite missing nearly 25% of the season. The Bills are aware of this and he will again be the focus of their offense this year, and MAINTAIN his top-10 form.

Snippet from the article I am in the process of fleshing out:"Looking at weeks 6 - 17, he ranked as #4 RB. That is impressive.

However, he had 13 TDs, whereas next closest is LDT (13, and then

many at 10 and 11). Giving him a more realistic number of 10 TDs

he moves to 8th. Still very good.

One point that is odd is he is very inconsistent in rushes /gm

26, 16, 30, 37, 14, 20, 28, 23, 27, 11, 15, 18 (weeks 6-17)

The Bills were on a hot streak at the end, and won like 5-6 in a row.

Even winning, MG had only 11 and 15 carries.

Bottom line, his end of season stats were inflated by TDs. He can

perform well, but inconsistently. I see him ending the season ranked

between 10 and 15 this year."

I am not preaching a doomsday here...just that he is currently overrated. If you can somehow convince me that he will end the season with 16 - 18 TDs, then put me in the McGahee fan club. Otherwise, I will pass on him

 

[wilked]

Check Deuce's last 4 games, he had 30 carries a game every game. Look at McGahee's carried above...Anyway, too nice of a day to be arguing footballI think the facts are out there, it is simply up to the individual to make their interpretation. peasssssssss

 

[Burning Sensation]

Because he has only scored more than 4 TD's 3 times in 8 years. He is also now on the wrong side of 30. He set a career high with carries last year with 322, i doubt he gets that many again this year.

In conclusion...for McGahee to outscore Barber he will have to:1. Attempt significantly more rushes than Barber. Like I said earlier, he probably has to go in the 350+ range, at a higher yards per rush than he did last season probably in the neighborhood of 4.5.

2. He'll have to put up in the neighborhood of 15+ TDs. Considering he scored:

2 TDs vs. ARI (27th in yardage, 13th in TDs)

2 TDs vs. SF (20th in yardage, 31st in TDs)

2 TDs vs. CLE (32nd in yardage, 32nd in TDs)

4 TDs vs. SEA (23rd in yardage, 25th in TDs)

2 TDs vs. PIT subs.

I'd much rather bank on Barber getting yardage than McGahee getting TDs.

3. Play 16 games.

1. Tiki averaged 4.4 YPC over the last 8 weeks, so if Mcgahee gets 350+ carries, i dont think he will need to average 4.5 YPC.2. So what you are telling me is that Mcgahee wont be playing any bad defenses this year? Every RB puts up there best games against week defenses. Does Tiki get to play the NFC north again?

Det - 172 yards, 1 TD

Chi - 131 yards, 2 TD's

Min - 111 yards, 2 TD's

GB - 196 yards, 1 TD

Does he get to play Arizona, Cleveland or the Bengals again?

Arz - 160 yards, 1 TD

Cle - 154 yards, 1 TD

Cin - 123 yards, 1 TD

You get the point

3. play 16 games? you mean he wont be able to do it if he only plays 4?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

perhaps it needs to be said again, but I believe the distance between the #4 and #5 RB is much larger than the distance between the #5 and #6 RB.If you consider the possible range of finishes of each player, I think McGahee probably has the smallest standard deviation. That is, assuming he plays a full season, I could realistically see him finishing anywhere between the #4 and #12 ranked RB. I really think his TD potential helps separate him from the group of players behind him and I think his receiving totals and YPA will improve in 2005 as he regains some of his explosiveness. I don't see why some people think RBs scoring TDs is a bad thing. That is critical to their consistency and potential, IMO. Look at guys like Holmes and Alexander...their multiple TD games are what makes them studs, and Willis has that same type of potential.I believe all of the other players ranked behind him have a lower downside and thus carry more risk. Thus, McGahee is my 5th RB but I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't finish in the top 5. I think he is the safest bet to finish in the top-10 of all the RBs he's grouped with AND that he has the potential to really put up some huge numbers if things work out with Losman this year.

 

[Snotbubbles]

so, assuming he gets 16 starts this year, you think he'll finish in the same exact spot he did last year or possibly 1 spot lower?

Yes. I'll assume he gets 16 starts, but I also must assume that every other RB gets 16 starts. Here are the PPG last year:1 Holmes,Priest: 24.742 Tomlinson,Ladainian: 19.173 Alexander,Shaun: 19.164 Barber,Tiki: 18.735 Davis,Domanick: 17.446 Martin,Curtis: 17.397 Jones,Julius: 16.858 Dillon,Corey: 16.799 James,Edgerrin: 16.07McGahee scored 207.7 points. If you divide that total by 12 his ppg average is 17.31. But because he didn't score all 207.7 points in the final 12 weeks we can't use 207.7. In week 1 he got 4.3 points and in week 3 he got 4.4 points. So he really scored 199 points in the final 12 weeks. That averages out to 16.58. So yes, assuming he plays a full 16 games and assuming he performs at the pace he was at last year, I could see him finish 9th or 10th.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Most people are missing the boat on J Jones. I am in the middle of writing an article on him, but see him as the biggest value at RB this year, ahead of Tiki

What makes JJones better than Mcgahee?

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

given what I said above, I understand the argument that Willis is overvalued because you could get a similar RB at #10. But, that doesn't mean Willis would be a bad choice at #5. Pretty much anybody you draft there is going to be overvalued because of how closely those RBs are grouped together.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

So yes, assuming he plays a full 16 games and assuming he performs at the pace he was at last year, I could see him finish 9th or 10th.

I have no problem with that. I think he's a pretty safe bet to finish in the top-10 again this year. Moreso than players like Deuce, Ahman, JLewis, DDavis, anyway.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

perhaps it needs to be said again, but I believe the distance between the #4 and #5 RB is much larger than the distance between the #5 and #6 RB.

If you consider the possible range of finishes of each player, I think McGahee probably has the smallest standard deviation. That is, assuming he plays a full season, I could realistically see him finishing anywhere between the #4 and #12 ranked RB. I really think his TD potential helps separate him from the group of players behind him and I think his receiving totals and YPA will improve in 2005 as he regains some of his explosiveness. I don't see why some people think RBs scoring TDs is a bad thing. That is critical to their consistency and potential, IMO. Look at guys like Holmes and Alexander...their multiple TD games are what makes them studs, and Willis has that same type of potential.

I believe all of the other players ranked behind him have a lower downside and thus carry more risk. Thus, McGahee is my 5th RB but I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't finish in the top 5. I think he is the safest bet to finish in the top-10 of all the RBs he's grouped with AND that he has the potential to really put up some huge numbers if things work out with Losman this year.

You want to know what the REAL downside is?Travis Henry is still a bill, and assuming he stays in Bufalo and that he doesn't hold out or anything, it's not a stretch to think he might be in on more than his fair share of goal-line siutations. He's had some pretty good success in those situations - better than McGahee so far. Henry has 17 TDs in 37 goal line runs. McGahee has 9 in 25 (or 26 depedning on where you look). If McGahee has to rely on yardage for his fantasy stats, his owners are in for long seasons.

I know nobody believes anything like that will happen, because a) everybody thinks this guy is a goal-line machine when he isn't and b) everybody just sort of assumes Henry won't play for Bufalo in 2005. Personally, I think that if Henry's choices are playing in Bufalo in 2005 or sitting out 2005, he'll play in Bufalo.

I'd put the odds of Henry playing for Buffalo in 2005 at about 1 in 3. If he does, I'd put the odds of him significantly reducing McGahee's fantasy potential at about 2 in 3. Combined odds only 1 in 6, but that's the true downside in my book until I see Henry officially moved to another team.

 

[Snotbubbles]

1. Tiki averaged 4.4 YPC over the last 8 weeks, so if Mcgahee gets 350+ carries, i dont think he will need to average 4.5 YPC.

If you're gonna try and skew the numbers at least do a decent job of it. Here's Barber's schedule over the last 8 weeks:Arizona Cardinals (27th in yards, 13th in TDs): he had 160 yds, 1 TDAtlanta Falcons (9th in yards, 29th in TDs): he had 131 yds, 0 TDsPhiladelphia Eagles (16th in yards, 17th in TDs): he had 119 yds, 0 TDsWashington Redskins (2nd in yards, 4th in TDs): ha had 38 yds, 0 TDsBaltimore Ravens (8th in yards, 8th in TDs): he had 64 yds, 1 TDPittsburgh Steelers (1st in yards, 7th in TDs): he had 114 yds, 1 TDCincinnati Bengals (26th in yards, 12 in TDs): he had 123 yds, 1 TDDallas Cowboys (10th in yards, 20th in TDs): he had 116 yds, 2 TDsThat's a tougher schedule than anything McGahee had to face and he still had 4.4 ypc. Just in case you didn't notice McGahee was at 3.97.

2. So what you are telling me is that Mcgahee wont be playing any bad defenses this year? Every RB puts up there best games against week defenses. Does Tiki get to play the NFC north again?Det - 172 yards, 1 TDChi - 131 yards, 2 TD'sMin - 111 yards, 2 TD'sGB - 196 yards, 1 TDDoes he get to play Arizona, Cleveland or the Bengals again?Arz - 160 yards, 1 TDCle - 154 yards, 1 TDCin - 123 yards, 1 TDYou get the point

The schedule is easier this year for NYG. Instead of the NFC North they play the NFC West. Instead of the AFC North they get the AFC West. They get rid of CLE, GB, DET, CHI, ATL, BAL, PIT and CIN. They get NO, SD, STL, DEN, SF, SEA KC, OAK. They play ARI and MIN again next year. You think Tiki had a career year last year? Look out.

 

[ko-jack]

People are missing the boat here

McGahee will do well next year.  He will finish with good numbers.  He will not be top 5, though, and that is where he is currently ranked

yea but you are missing the boat in terms of rankings. currently, using FBGs projections, he is ranked 9th. but he is 28 points away from 4th and 27 points away from 18th. rbs 5-18 are interchangeable.what I care about is value. on draft day, after the top 4 rbs go, or even before, manning-culpepper-mcnabb-moss-owens-harrison will all be better values than willis or who ever is rb #5.

the ranking at #5 or #9 means squat, at least to me anyways.

http://footballguys.com/viewrankings.php?v...=rb&howrecent=7And if you truly think that you can pick any RB ranked from 5 - 18 and expect equivalent production, you are out of your mind

where does it say i can predict them? the fact that i cant predict them is all the reason to draft the very best wrs/qbs and get rb 15, the difference in rbs aint that muchclick on this

http://footballguys.com/currentproj-rb.htm

43 points separate 5 and 18, but lets go to 20 , for a 10 team league, start 2 rbs, 58 points separate 5 and 20. 108 points separate qb 1 with qb 10 (assuming 1 qb league).

i wonder which is the better value

and if were talkin willis, which we are, the difference is 43 points between he and rb 20. really not a lot of difference or there is much more difference between the very best qbs/wrs and their baseline

Use projections, I will use historical datahttp://www.footballguys.com/datadom.php?pt...l=50&mincat=rsh

Look at the difference between 5 and 18, tell me if it is significant

its still less significant than the top wrs and qbs with thier baseline. you just decreaded the significance by spinning a different set of data.

spin all you want, last years #, history's #s dont mean squat when it comes to THIS years #s

 

[ko-jack]

notice that the Bills went 9-3 in the games that Willis started when he put up top-10 numbers despite missing nearly 25% of the season. The Bills are aware of this and he will again be the focus of their offense this year, and MAINTAIN his top-10 form

.Agree. Probably a 9 or 10 finish.

so, assuming he gets 16 starts this year, you think he'll finish in the same exact spot he did last year or possibly 1 spot lower?

yea. it doesnt make sense, but then again, buffalo doesnt play the NFC west this year or the browns. plus, is there reall that much of a difference between 5 and 10 this year? i dont think there is