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RB/WR Ty Montgomery, NE (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Run It Up
- Start date
Man in the yellow hat
Footballguy
Montgomery is the starter and will remain there barring injury. I truly believe his renewed weight room work, combined with his off-season of work as a RB only, will make him a very solid starter in this offense.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
I put odds of Montgomery having the most carries in the GB backfield at about 10%. He doesn't run like a RB at all, he's a gadget player.
ponchsox
Footballguy
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
keep dreaming. At the NFL level you can't teach a WR to become a RB. Ty did ok in the gadget role getting limited carries, it won't happen over a large sample. He's not gonna re-write the book.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I could be off, but didn't he play RB before? Was it in college or high school? He showed enough as a RB last year to make the position switch, plus a full offseason to train as a RB makes it more plausible he improves. Wasn't he the most efficient RB last year too?
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
He has always been kind of a gadget player. He had one game with over 10 carries last season. He had 77 carries last year. There is nothing that points to him being able to carry the load as a RB.
I guess miracles can happen though, i just don't like to bet on them.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
I only saw a handful of GB games last year but to my eyes - and I have pretty good eyes if I must say so myself - Ty looked very good for a WR transitioning to RB. I'm eager to see what he can do. Looking back at some of the drafts I've had recently, I'm bummed he's not on any of my teams. I'll be targeting him more in upcoming drafts. Only at the right value of course.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
I hope you're right. I'm a huge Packer fan. Just don't see it happening. He looks super awkward running the ball.
Boston
Footballguy
mozzy84
Footballguy
Who do you have the high odds on of getting the carries? Honestly just curious cuz I have no clue who is behind him or challenging. Or do you think he just gets hurt?
KingPrawn
Footballguy
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
I have zero idea who will have the most carries, just highly doubt it will be Montgomery. He had one double digit carry game last season.
I hate the homer thing since everyone can watch whatever game they want nowadays, but i don't know any GB fans that thinks Montgomery is the answer at RB.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I don't think Jamaal Williams (4th round rookie) is special but he's earned 1st-team reps in practice and is a very good pass blocker, an area where Ty technically struggles. I think Williams will be utilized this year but I don't know to what extent.
What I wonder is, did GB manage Ty's snaps last year because off his poor pass pro or because they didn't think he can handle a large workload? On a good day he seemed to hover around 50% of the snaps.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ty Montgomery snap counts
You see that the only two games where Montgomery had 50 or more offensive snaps the whole season occurred when they played the Bears in game 6 and game 14. These were also his best games statistically. His 222 rushing yards against the Bears in these two games represent 47% of his career rushing yards in regular season games of which he has 21 so far.
Montgomery played in 15 games last season but only was on the field for 36% of their offensive snaps. Ripkowski was being used more as substitution for Lacy.
Randall Cobb missed 3 games last season and only started in 10 games. He had a hamstring injury earlier on in the season that he was playing through and caused him to miss game 7 vs the Falcons before being hurt against the Seahawks in game 13. Cobb played 83% of the snaps in game 14 vs. the Bears but was only targeted once, used as a decoy before being shut down for the season.
If Cobb is fully heathy this season, does that affect Mongomery in terms of targets or possibly even some constraint plays?
Eddie Lacy only played on 15% of the snaps (5 games) last season and James Starks had 24% (9 games) both players were injured, Michael and Davis who were brought in during the season only had 6% of the snaps combined.
Going back to 2015 Lacy had 41% of the offensive snaps and Starks had 46% Lacy missed one game and was even benched for Starks in 3 games. In 2014 Lacy had 65% of the snaps and Starks 24%
I would say Montgomery fits Starks role in the offense more closely to Lacy's. Aaron Jones may be a player who would compete with him for playing time in this role.
Jamaal Williams fits more closely the Lacy role in this offense than I think Montgomery does.
If Montomery is playing more, he might not get more than 40% of the offensive snaps in a split backfield like 2015 where Lacy was struggling. There is potential for that role to be even further reduced if Williams (or Jones) is filling in the running between the tackles role in the offense that was once Eddie Lacys. As it was Montgomery only played on 36% of the snaps, with all four of the other RB combining for 45% of the snaps last season. I think the Packers RB are at least healthier than they were last season, although two of them Michael and Davis likely won't be used much (if they make the team) when they didn't really use them last season.
You see that the only two games where Montgomery had 50 or more offensive snaps the whole season occurred when they played the Bears in game 6 and game 14. These were also his best games statistically. His 222 rushing yards against the Bears in these two games represent 47% of his career rushing yards in regular season games of which he has 21 so far.
Montgomery played in 15 games last season but only was on the field for 36% of their offensive snaps. Ripkowski was being used more as substitution for Lacy.
Randall Cobb missed 3 games last season and only started in 10 games. He had a hamstring injury earlier on in the season that he was playing through and caused him to miss game 7 vs the Falcons before being hurt against the Seahawks in game 13. Cobb played 83% of the snaps in game 14 vs. the Bears but was only targeted once, used as a decoy before being shut down for the season.
If Cobb is fully heathy this season, does that affect Mongomery in terms of targets or possibly even some constraint plays?
Eddie Lacy only played on 15% of the snaps (5 games) last season and James Starks had 24% (9 games) both players were injured, Michael and Davis who were brought in during the season only had 6% of the snaps combined.
Going back to 2015 Lacy had 41% of the offensive snaps and Starks had 46% Lacy missed one game and was even benched for Starks in 3 games. In 2014 Lacy had 65% of the snaps and Starks 24%
I would say Montgomery fits Starks role in the offense more closely to Lacy's. Aaron Jones may be a player who would compete with him for playing time in this role.
Jamaal Williams fits more closely the Lacy role in this offense than I think Montgomery does.
If Montomery is playing more, he might not get more than 40% of the offensive snaps in a split backfield like 2015 where Lacy was struggling. There is potential for that role to be even further reduced if Williams (or Jones) is filling in the running between the tackles role in the offense that was once Eddie Lacys. As it was Montgomery only played on 36% of the snaps, with all four of the other RB combining for 45% of the snaps last season. I think the Packers RB are at least healthier than they were last season, although two of them Michael and Davis likely won't be used much (if they make the team) when they didn't really use them last season.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
So the starters odds of having the most carries is 10%? Seems like a hyperbolic statement to me.
He did not look like a gadget player to me. He ran like a real RB, but perhaps lacked some of the instincts that come with experience. He's also built like a RB for sure. I do not think it's impossible he loses the job at all, but I'm not sure mid to late round RBs are really much better options either. He's certainly a risky pick and I'd avoid him in redrafts at his ADP, but it would be far from shocking if he puts together a nice season.
JFS171
Footballguy
@Biabreakable - good breakdown of what's been done in the past, but it's also plausible that the tandem backfield was a result of not having one guy that could do it all instead of a coaching preference.
I do think they managed Montgomery's reps last year -- several reasons for that seem plausible to me.
1) Transitioning to the position midseason, where Ty himself has admitted he didn't know all the plays, didn't know the blocking schemes, and basically just ran in a direction and instinctively tried to find the right hole and make something happen. If a dude's averaging 5.9 YPC on instinct alone, that's a player I want to own.
2) RBs and WRs train differently, and Ty again himself has admitted as much this offseason. Switching positions mid-year probably made him more vulnerable to injury given his body wasn't prepared for the rigors of being a RB. He's thick for a WR, but he has commented several times that he had to train in such a way as to not get too big, primarily in the lower half. Those aren't concerns anymore - he's visibly thicker this year, and arguably more prepared to handle a bigger workload.
3) Pass pro - switching midseason after not playing the position since HS left a massive gap in his pass blocking. Ripkowski was basically Rodgers' personal protector, which makes total sense if you're GB - Rodgers is the franchise. Montgomery has received positive reports this year already on his pass blocking improvement. He may not be to the level of Jamaal Williams yet, but he also may not HAVE to get there to be effective and to remain the lead back. It's certainly possible to me that Williams getting some first team reps early this spring was a reward for a job well done, coming to camp prepared and knowing the playbook, pass blocking well, as opposed to suggesting he's taking Ty's job.
I wrote this last year before the waiver rush on Montgomery, and I stand by it now:
Meanwhile, Jamaal Williams posted a 7.25 3-cone and a 4.53 short shuttle -- at 212 lbs. Those aren't the end-all-be-all drills for RBs, and the tape tells a lot more than the combine in general, but those numbers are pretty gross.
I do think they managed Montgomery's reps last year -- several reasons for that seem plausible to me.
1) Transitioning to the position midseason, where Ty himself has admitted he didn't know all the plays, didn't know the blocking schemes, and basically just ran in a direction and instinctively tried to find the right hole and make something happen. If a dude's averaging 5.9 YPC on instinct alone, that's a player I want to own.
2) RBs and WRs train differently, and Ty again himself has admitted as much this offseason. Switching positions mid-year probably made him more vulnerable to injury given his body wasn't prepared for the rigors of being a RB. He's thick for a WR, but he has commented several times that he had to train in such a way as to not get too big, primarily in the lower half. Those aren't concerns anymore - he's visibly thicker this year, and arguably more prepared to handle a bigger workload.
3) Pass pro - switching midseason after not playing the position since HS left a massive gap in his pass blocking. Ripkowski was basically Rodgers' personal protector, which makes total sense if you're GB - Rodgers is the franchise. Montgomery has received positive reports this year already on his pass blocking improvement. He may not be to the level of Jamaal Williams yet, but he also may not HAVE to get there to be effective and to remain the lead back. It's certainly possible to me that Williams getting some first team reps early this spring was a reward for a job well done, coming to camp prepared and knowing the playbook, pass blocking well, as opposed to suggesting he's taking Ty's job.
I wrote this last year before the waiver rush on Montgomery, and I stand by it now:
LeVeon Bell, the gold standard for big man agility, posted a 6.75 3-cone and a 4.24 short shuttle at 230 lbs -- 10.99 agility score. That's just stupid flexibility for a man that size, but the point here is that Ty is pretty darn close to it, and a near carbon copy of David Johnson's size/agility. Hell his whole combine looks pretty close to Johnson's.
Meanwhile, Jamaal Williams posted a 7.25 3-cone and a 4.53 short shuttle -- at 212 lbs. Those aren't the end-all-be-all drills for RBs, and the tape tells a lot more than the combine in general, but those numbers are pretty gross.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
JFS171 I can appreciate your point of view but we are not going to agree about this here.
Montgomery had 77 rushing attempts. I don't see yards per carry on such a small sample size being something to hang your hat on. As I already mentioned 47% of his career rushing yards happened in his two games against the Bears last season. The Bears were not a good team last year. They had some good players on defense but they weren't healthy. The whole team was a mess. Now I am not sure the Bears really improved a lot on defense during this offseason and the Packers do play the Bears twice this season, so be sure to start him then. Not sure when else you will really feel confident in starting him.
The combine metrics while interesting do not really speak to a RBs abilities to run the ball inside the tackles. Something the Packers do want a player to be able to do, but not how they used Montgomery last season.
Montgomery had 77 rushing attempts. I don't see yards per carry on such a small sample size being something to hang your hat on. As I already mentioned 47% of his career rushing yards happened in his two games against the Bears last season. The Bears were not a good team last year. They had some good players on defense but they weren't healthy. The whole team was a mess. Now I am not sure the Bears really improved a lot on defense during this offseason and the Packers do play the Bears twice this season, so be sure to start him then. Not sure when else you will really feel confident in starting him.
The combine metrics while interesting do not really speak to a RBs abilities to run the ball inside the tackles. Something the Packers do want a player to be able to do, but not how they used Montgomery last season.
Man in the yellow hat
Footballguy
Well, put one on your list. The guy has a running back frame and running back skills.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/ty-montgomery?id=2552429
" Built like a full-grown man. Body type resembles that of a running back with well-defined, muscular legs. Foot quickness to create separation on short to intermediate routes."
There was a plant to get Montgomery running back reps last season. Unfortunately, it had to be accelerated because Lacy and Starks were not healthy.
In any case, I've heard nothing but positive remarks about Montgomery's off season work. If he was really struggling, I'd expect to hear more about it. Williams is going to play too, but this is Montgomery's job barring injury.
Boston
Footballguy
I understand that Montgomery only had 77 rushing attempts but let's remember that is 77 more NFL attempts than the RBs he is competing with...overall I just don't see Montgomery not being a contributor to this offense...as I have said before the question is will it translate to fantasy success or will he turn into a Kevin Faulk type where he is much more effective in real football rather then fantasy football...
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Man in the yellow hat
Footballguy
I agree with this for sure. And no matter what Mike McCarthy says, this is still a pass first team.
cloppbeast
Footballguy
At worst, Mongomery splits time with Williams at running back and plays as a gadget type guy. Either way he catches passes. He won't net you zero barring injury.
CentralPA
Footballguy
KingPrawn
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
McCarthy is loyal to a fault. See: Dom Capers. What does that mean? It means Ty will have a long leash. He absolutely has a role in this offense. Even if another guy plays better, it will be 6-8 weeks until McCarthy admits it.
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JFS171
Footballguy
Given it's free, I'll post some excerpts:
As a convert from WR ... midway through the season ... who admitted he didn't really know the plays or how the blocking was supposed to work, but rather just ran left or right and tried to make something happen ... and averaged 5.9 YPC.
I'm all-in here. I've posted before about his agility at his size relative to some of the best backs in the game. McCarthy's loyalty is just another factor (after his fumble last night he was right back in on the next series). I think a big, big year is coming from Monty.
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
I still don't understand so many hype or expectation from Ty Montgomery as starting RB for Packers. He had never been proven as every-down RB at Stanford and he did not have 20+ carries, let alone 20+ touches in a single game last night. And now he just experienced a soft tissue injury in his lower leg and that was just from a practice with lack of heavy physical contact. With that being said, I'm definitely buying Jamaal Williams.
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Snorkelson
Footballguy
Even if Williams earns carries Monty will likely be in on 3rd downs and has a decent floor. I wouldn't want to pull the trigger for his current adp but a riddick type role could be how this shakes out. If he keeps fumbling it will be jwill show. Monty has had some issues holding the ball....
JFS171
Footballguy
I think Montgomery has a good bit of upside, but in dynasty I think i realized the last few days I may not be properly assessing the risk his sickle cell trait presents. As we're seeing with John Brown, apparently sickle cell trait slows recovery (as we maybe already saw with Montgomery last year where he missed a few games).
I think he's a very talented player, but the sickle cell trait worries me.
I think he's a very talented player, but the sickle cell trait worries me.
CentralPA
Footballguy
JFS171
Footballguy
@Dr. Dan - I suspect this is outside of your realm, but any thoughts on the sickle cell specifically? Are we right to be concerned?
The flip side of this is players like Tevin Coleman and Ryan Clark who only seemed to have concern for playing with sickle cell when the altitude of Denver came into play, but otherwise haven't had significant health issues or recovery issues related to the sickle cell trait specifically.
The flip side of this is players like Tevin Coleman and Ryan Clark who only seemed to have concern for playing with sickle cell when the altitude of Denver came into play, but otherwise haven't had significant health issues or recovery issues related to the sickle cell trait specifically.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
tomorrow's game goes a long way to proving/disproving the TM myth..I think he throws a wrench into the machine if he goes out and kills it tomorrow..
KingPrawn
Footballguy
I doubt he plays. Packers are very conservative with injuries, particularly during pre-season
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Well this is one reason why I'm skeptical he will last the whole season, and will at some point lose favor to Williams or Jones... Week 8 is my shot in the dark prediction. He just won't heal as fast as a normal person because his red cells just aren't "normal" so they will heal slower.
Huge concern IMO. I think the huge buy is Williams.
socrates
Footballguy
I am still monitoring this situation carefully. I would not count the other two rookies out yet. It was expected that Williams would distinguish himself early due to his superior pass protection ability, but Mays and Jones continue to intrigue me.
Man in the yellow hat
Footballguy
http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/08/27/packers-seeking-more-explosive-runs-young-rbs/602466001/
I still don't understand so many hype or expectation from Ty Montgomery as starting RB for Packers. He had never been proven as every-down RB at Stanford and he did not have 20+ carries, let alone 20+ touches in a single game last night. And now he just experienced a soft tissue injury in his lower leg and that was just from a practice with lack of heavy physical contact. With that being said, I'm definitely buying Jamaal Williams.
"If the Broncos game is an indication of the way things are headed, Williams, up until this week the No. 2 back, would be destined for a third-down role and Jones would be Montgomery’s main backup.
Whether it’s his doing or just circumstance, Williams has not been able to get anything going on the ground in three games. He has carried a team-high 14 times for 30 yards, a 2.14 per carry average. He managed just 4 yards on three carries against the Broncos."
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Tellyawhat nothing was worse than his getting held out despite practicing and no obvious injury last year. There was no clue or indication he would miss. There was discussion of an 'illness' but in the NFL that usually means flu or something like that. It seems really risky to me. His usage was frustrating though he's potentially one of the most exciting players in the league considering how he could be used.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
