RB's about to break out? (2 Viewers)

[Noah Davis]

Crowell is a Tate injury away from being a stud.

The film shows he's the beneficiary of great blocking on his carries, not due to ability.

Have you watched Crowell's college tape? He was the best pure runner of this class.

1) if you've been around here often, you would know the first answer. See my rookie prospect topics, I don't jump to conclusions.2) he wasn't the best pure runner

Which tape did you watch Alabama or Georgia State? He was by far the most talented from what I saw.....but then again I also like James Wilder Jr.....so take it with a grain of salt.

Nitpicking, but it was Georgia and Alabama State. SEC Freshman of the year at Georgia iirc.

You're right....I had Georgia on my mind.

 

[rjv]

Denard Robinson is an interesting name that may begin to creep up there. The offensive line is still garbage but his opportunity seems to be there with Gerhart, lets just call it, "underperforming". Not my favorite RB on that roster but he showed decent this weekend and seems to be in the #2 role in that new RBBC.

Those in yahoo leagues should think about him. He's got WR designation in mine.Do those with Tate consider Crowell a must have handcuff?

Absolutely.Edit:

Nate Ulrich ‏@NateUlrichABJ

#Browns RB Ben Tate said he doubts there are enough carries to go around for 3 RBs b/c u want to get into rhythm. "I think definitely two."

If this holds true, then West may be the odd man out, and Crowell should get a fair number of carries and possible goal line work.

Why is West assumed to be the odd man out?

Because he possibly has Crowell not West on his roster.

 

[Van Dyman]

Why is West assumed to be the odd man out?

I don't know for sure, just going based on the depth chart change that Crowell has already passed West. I guess we'll find out Sunday.

Crowell took snaps ahead of West in the media portion of practice last week. Is that what you meant? Depth charts on NFL.com and the Browns web site have West-Crowell-Winston-Tate. This will obviously change (how?) if Tate plays this week.

 

[CentralPA]

Not sure where you get the CJ Anderson breakout. I do like all the rest. McKinnon seems to have a pretty clear path based on opportunity. Sankey as well, but I am a little confused on why he hasn't carried the rock even more (considering who is ahead of him and their record).

Anderson comes mostly from Ball's poor performance so far. Obviously none of these guys are locks, but he seems to have a path to production if Ball doesn't get it together (Though hillman may be too big a block there.)

It mostly hingnes on Ball being hurt or keeps fumbling, which is still happening. Anderson is above Hillman on the depth chart I believe so he's a non factor.

 

[Van Dyman]

Crowell is a Tate injury away from being a stud.

The film shows he's the beneficiary of great blocking on his carries, not due to ability.

We're talking fantasy football here. You don't get more points for McCoy than you do for Asiata simply because of the differences in blocking

But it does say that he hasn't been "studly" and that affects playing time/ling term outlook. While some only stat watch, I've watched every single carry of Browns rbs this season multiple times (all 22 film/ game replay) and that's what it shows me. I own none of Crowell/ Tate/West. But I would value them as Tate, West, Crowell by their individual performances.

I think you're seeng what you want to see.

If I own none of them, then how am I biased? I'm not saying Crowell is a bad player, just that he's had great opportunities handed to him on a silver platter for many of his carries. I would say anyone that disagrees probably owns him, doesn't watch film, or doesn't know how to watch film.

Either way, I'm trying to help you guys by cautioning your expectations. Take it or toss it in the garbage. But I do my homework on players.

I haven't scrutinized every carry by the Browns, so I appreciate anyone who has. You have stated:

1.) Based solely on individual performances...Tate>West>Crowell, and

2.) The Browns o-line has handed out great opportunities on a silver platter, and

3.) They only handed them to Crowell (the third best "individual performer" on the team) instead of Tate/West

Do you see this trend continuing? Why or why not?

 

[Shawn]

Uhhh. Carlos Hyde?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Dave Birkett - Detroit Free Press, Lions Beat Reporter
Theo Riddick told me yesterday he didn't expect to miss any time, that he just felt tightness in hamstring. But we'll see.

 

[tdmills]

Crowell is a Tate injury away from being a stud.

The film shows he's the beneficiary of great blocking on his carries, not due to ability.

We're talking fantasy football here. You don't get more points for McCoy than you do for Asiata simply because of the differences in blocking

But it does say that he hasn't been "studly" and that affects playing time/ling term outlook. While some only stat watch, I've watched every single carry of Browns rbs this season multiple times (all 22 film/ game replay) and that's what it shows me. I own none of Crowell/ Tate/West. But I would value them as Tate, West, Crowell by their individual performances.

I think you're seeng what you want to see.

If I own none of them, then how am I biased? I'm not saying Crowell is a bad player, just that he's had great opportunities handed to him on a silver platter for many of his carries. I would say anyone that disagrees probably owns him, doesn't watch film, or doesn't know how to watch film.Either way, I'm trying to help you guys by cautioning your expectations. Take it or toss it in the garbage. But I do my homework on players.

I haven't scrutinized every carry by the Browns, so I appreciate anyone who has. You have stated:1.) Based solely on individual performances...Tate>West>Crowell, and

2.) The Browns o-line has handed out great opportunities on a silver platter, and

3.) They only handed them to Crowell (the third best "individual performer" on the team) instead of Tate/West

Do you see this trend continuing? Why or why not?

I've see more creativity in West vs Crowell, when nothing is there. Crowell has either a 1 or 2 yard gain or ovee 10 it seems...not consistent. I've seen at least 5 runs of Crowell with massive holes that Jared lorenzen could've gained 10 yards on. The browns ol is very good, I would assume those opportunities will even out over time between all the runners. If Crowell was pressing the hole and cutting back or making tons of defenders miss, I would view him differently...but that's not happening.

 

[TheFanatic]

Does "not McCoy" count?

If the rumored Dennis Allen firing had been true, I'd roll the dice on Latavius Murray

I wouldn't say it's "not true" so much as it's "premature". It would be like if someone reported that Kanye West and Kim Kardashian had broken up. Give it time.

Did you really just post that in a football thread, actually any thread. You should be embarrassed.

Nah I liked it... Any time you can use a Kanye west Kimmy K reference it's a win

Particularly referencing the impending implosion that has to happen here.

 

[thehornet]

Crowell is a Tate injury away from being a stud.

The film shows he's the beneficiary of great blocking on his carries, not due to ability.

We're talking fantasy football here. You don't get more points for McCoy than you do for Asiata simply because of the differences in blocking

But it does say that he hasn't been "studly" and that affects playing time/ling term outlook. While some only stat watch, I've watched every single carry of Browns rbs this season multiple times (all 22 film/ game replay) and that's what it shows me. I own none of Crowell/ Tate/West. But I would value them as Tate, West, Crowell by their individual performances.

I think you're seeng what you want to see.

If I own none of them, then how am I biased? I'm not saying Crowell is a bad player, just that he's had great opportunities handed to him on a silver platter for many of his carries. I would say anyone that disagrees probably owns him, doesn't watch film, or doesn't know how to watch film.Either way, I'm trying to help you guys by cautioning your expectations. Take it or toss it in the garbage. But I do my homework on players.

. Everyone here already knows that the Browns o line is beasting right now? do you have anything else to add? Whether you want to "see" it or not, Crowell is doing far more with his opportunities than anyone else and he looks fantastic doing it. In terms of how they are playing right now it would be Crow, and then the other two. In reality, Tate will get his job back (until he reinjures himself) and west is probably the backup in name only.

 

[chinawildman]

Situation-wise I gotta say Branden Oliver. Just seems to fulfill all the requirements of a backup RB stash.

1) Struggling/Injured starter - Donald Brown is averaging a historically bad 1.97 ypc. Matthews's ligaments are made of tissue paper.

2) Team that likes to throw to RBs - 4 catches for 33 yds in his first full game.

3) Good offense and QB leading to plenty of scoring opportunities

4) Returns kickoffs if you're in a return yd league

5) Playing time trending upwards - McCoy insinuating more snaps for the kid.

Only negatives I see are an oline that isn't run blocking well and a terrible matchup against the Jets this week.

 

[thatguy]

Crowell, C.J. Anderson, McKinnon, Taliaferro, and Sankey seem to be the 5 RB's on the verge of breaking out this year.

I'm curious what other people think. Which of these guys is about to become the most valuable? Did I miss anyone?

I'd put Anderson at the bottom of that list. Probably Crowell at he top (he's the only one I own on any team) then maybe Sankey.

Barring an injury to ball I just don't see Anderson "breaking out".

I'm a bit more skeptical about Taliaferro's talent compared to almost everyone else. But the guys in front of him are underwhelming so far, so his path may be less cluttered than Crowell's as well.

That's hardly the case. Forsett has, in fact, played very well. He has a 44-255-2 rushing line and has caught 16 of 19 targets for 63 yards. Yes, his yards per reception are sub par, but he has in point of fact played very well overall. 5.8 yards per rush is hardly what I would call underwhelming. Taliaferro has averaged 4.5 yards per rush. Very good, too. But he has not outplayed Forsett. On the contrary, I'd say it's the other say around. Furthermore, Forsett has had, respectively, 16, 12, 15, and 17 touches in the Ravens first 4 games. He's not going anywhere.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Why is West assumed to be the odd man out?

I don't know for sure, just going based on the depth chart change that Crowell has already passed West. I guess we'll find out Sunday.

Sorry, what depth chart change are you referring to?

 

[Van Dyman]

Why is West assumed to be the odd man out?

I don't know for sure, just going based on the depth chart change that Crowell has already passed West. I guess we'll find out Sunday.

Sorry, what depth chart change are you referring to?

I asked him that, too. No response. I just rechecked and no change yet.

Why is West assumed to be the odd man out?

I don't know for sure, just going based on the depth chart change that Crowell has already passed West. I guess we'll find out Sunday.

Crowell took snaps ahead of West in the media portion of practice last week Wednesday. Is that what you meant? Depth charts on NFL.com and the Browns web site have West-Crowell-Winston-Tate. This will obviously change (how?) if Tate plays this week.

 

[munygon2]

Sorry guys for the delay. I just checked and the depth chart hasn't officially changed. I saw a tweet about it and maybe that's what I was thinking of.

https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/514935427380170752

Evan SilvaIsaiah Crowell ran ahead of Terrance West at Wednesday's practice & appears to have passed him on #Browns depth chart.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Sorry guys for the delay. I just checked and the depth chart hasn't officially changed. I saw a tweet about it and maybe that's what I was thinking of.

https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/514935427380170752

Thx. This was discussed repeatedly last week. They rotate RBs in practice some days. Nothing else definitive. That said, Crowell looks really good so far.

Evan Silva

Isaiah Crowell ran ahead of Terrance West at Wednesday's practice & appears to have passed him on #Browns depth chart.

 

[Courtweeks87]

Why is West assumed to be the odd man out?

I don't know for sure, just going based on the depth chart change that Crowell has already passed West. I guess we'll find out Sunday.

Sorry, what depth chart change are you referring to?

I don't have a link at the moment but his coach said last week that he needs to get crowell more involved that he is a special talent and deserves more time. I would have to track this down but I read something extremely similar to that on twitter

 

[Reegus]

Sankey is going to break out this week. Debating starting him over Martin.

 

[Sabertooth]

I actually like Andre Williams quite a bit. Crowell seems like that could be a hot hand type of situation. Williams is behind an older journeyman back with an extensive injury history. Plus he's already pushing for carries even with Jennings healthy.

 

[Sabertooth]

Let's also not forget about Knowshon coming back in week 6 most likely.

 

[Dismattle]

Quoted from above:

I've see more creativity in West vs Crowell, when nothing is there. Crowell has either a 1 or 2 yard gain or ovee 10 it seems...not consistent. I've seen at least 5 runs of Crowell with massive holes that Jared lorenzen could've gained 10 yards on. The browns ol is very good, I would assume those opportunities will even out over time between all the runners. If Crowell was pressing the hole and cutting back or making tons of defenders miss, I would view him differently...but that's not happening.​

Indirectly it appears your implying the Browns OLine may as a Team provide 110% because they know The Crow is about to break off some yards.. Or Its possible that opposing defenses may be providing extra cushion to help maintain their Rush Defense..

fwiw I believe the HC has already agreed w/ what your saying. West wants to make ya miss, while The Crow may attempt to run through You!

Its almost interesting to read.. I mean that I believe the consensus is that all Browns RBs have Value... (Tate is still listed as Starter too)

Crowell, C.J. Anderson, McKinnon, Taliaferro, and Sankey seem to be the 5 RB's on the verge of breaking out this year.

I'm curious what other people think. Which of these guys is about to become the most valuable? Did I miss anyone?

I'd put Anderson at the bottom of that list. Probably Crowell at he top (he's the only one I own on any team) then maybe Sankey.

Barring an injury to ball I just don't see Anderson "breaking out".

I'm a bit more skeptical about Taliaferro's talent compared to almost everyone else. But the guys in front of him are underwhelming so far, so his path may be less cluttered than Crowell's as well.

That's hardly the case. Forsett has, in fact, played very well. He has a 44-255-2 rushing line and has caught 16 of 19 targets for 63 yards. Yes, his yards per reception are sub par, but he has in point of fact played very well overall. 5.8 yards per rush is hardly what I would call underwhelming. Taliaferro has averaged 4.5 yards per rush. Very good, too. But he has not outplayed Forsett. On the contrary, I'd say it's the other say around. Furthermore, Forsett has had, respectively, 16, 12, 15, and 17 touches in the Ravens first 4 games. He's not going anywhere.

I gotta agree w/ Thatguy! Id almost speculate that the pecking order took some of the wind out of his sails. I believe Taliaferro's performance combined w/ the OLine and their Defense makes for a Solid hold. But, Forsett has a role, and it may stay quite expanded (so to speak)

I probably should take a minute to reread more of this post for possible dated or poorly worded links, because its apparent that we either have seen things differently Or read different interpretations...

p.s. Edited: You have posted more than the allowed number of quoted blocks of text

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

Sankey is going to break out this week. Debating starting him over Martin.

I hope you're right! Do you have any insight into why you think that happens? Decent matchup but it'll suck if he doesn't get a carry until the second half again.

 

[Reegus]

Sankey is going to break out this week. Debating starting him over Martin.

I hope you're right! Do you have any insight into why you think that happens? Decent matchup but it'll suck if he doesn't get a carry until the second half again.

No insight just a gut feeling. The head coach is going to be on the hot seat soon if they don't start winning. It seems most titan fans want to see what the kid has and its a home game.

 

[stbugs]

One note for all those on the McKinnon bandwagon, they will not play the Falcons every week. Just some horrific stats (even worse in PPR):

1. In FBGs FP allowed, the Falcons are #32 at 10% worse than #31 (Browns).

2. They have allowed 6, yes 6, RBs, i.e. 4 starters and 2 backups, to have 89 to 169 total yards.

3. They have allowed 8 rushing TDs in 4 weeks.

4. They allow 77% more FPs to RBs than the average teams.

While GB is the next game (McKinnon has been limited in practice this week) and also week 12, weeks 6-11 include 1 bye and 5 teams (including Buffalo, Washington and Detroit) that give up 10-17 ppg to RBs as opposed to the 32 ppg the Falcons give up. Weeks 14 and 15 are against the Jets and Detroit again, who have been very tough against the run.

I like McKinnon's potential, but chasing the Falcon points gives you 4 not quite as great opportunities, 2 against GB, 1 against Carolina and one good one against Miami in week 16. While Pittsburgh and Baltimore ripped Carolina, I think Carolina will right their run D (they were solid last year and have a fantastic front 7) by week 13. I don't think Asiata is going away, especially at the goal line, so enjoy the GB game this weekend, but I don't think McKinnon will break out the rest of the year.

 

[T with T]

J. Mckinnon... He quietly had 18-135 last week and asiata got 3 short tds and I have a feeling this kid could be good? anyone else or am I the only one?

 

[Leonidas]

J. Mckinnon... He quietly had 18-135 last week and asiata got 3 short tds and I have a feeling this kid could be good? anyone else or am I the only one?

Well, there's this

One note for all those on the McKinnon bandwagon, they will not play the Falcons every week. Just some horrific stats (even worse in PPR):

1. In FBGs FP allowed, the Falcons are #32 at 10% worse than #31 (Browns).

2. They have allowed 6, yes 6, RBs, i.e. 4 starters and 2 backups, to have 89 to 169 total yards.

3. They have allowed 8 rushing TDs in 4 weeks.

4. They allow 77% more FPs to RBs than the average teams.

While GB is the next game (McKinnon has been limited in practice this week) and also week 12, weeks 6-11 include 1 bye and 5 teams (including Buffalo, Washington and Detroit) that give up 10-17 ppg to RBs as opposed to the 32 ppg the Falcons give up. Weeks 14 and 15 are against the Jets and Detroit again, who have been very tough against the run.

I like McKinnon's potential, but chasing the Falcon points gives you 4 not quite as great opportunities, 2 against GB, 1 against Carolina and one good one against Miami in week 16. While Pittsburgh and Baltimore ripped Carolina, I think Carolina will right their run D (they were solid last year and have a fantastic front 7) by week 13. I don't think Asiata is going away, especially at the goal line, so enjoy the GB game this weekend, but I don't think McKinnon will break out the rest of the year.

 

[packer_junkie]

Sankey is my breakout candidate… on the wire in 2 of my 3 leagues somehow.. Hoping to snatch him up

 

[RichInOrlando]

Had to decide whether to stash Crowell or McKinnon at the bottom of my bench. I liked Crowell a lot, but just liked McKinnon's explosiveness better. they are both great stashes, but to me I saw a better lottery ticket in McKinnon than Crowell.

Crowell needs 2 injuries to happen to become the bell cow. As long as one of Tate/West remains healthy, he will always share and thus he's nothing more than a bye-week/flex.

McKinnon I think is an Asiata injury away from potentially making the Vike's HC's to move forward with a youthful offense in TB and JK.

But both are great stashes.

 

[silentcoach]

One note for all those on the McKinnon bandwagon, they will not play the Falcons every week. Just some horrific stats (even worse in PPR):

1. In FBGs FP allowed, the Falcons are #32 at 10% worse than #31 (Browns).

2. They have allowed 6, yes 6, RBs, i.e. 4 starters and 2 backups, to have 89 to 169 total yards.

3. They have allowed 8 rushing TDs in 4 weeks.

4. They allow 77% more FPs to RBs than the average teams.

While GB is the next game (McKinnon has been limited in practice this week) and also week 12, weeks 6-11 include 1 bye and 5 teams (including Buffalo, Washington and Detroit) that give up 10-17 ppg to RBs as opposed to the 32 ppg the Falcons give up. Weeks 14 and 15 are against the Jets and Detroit again, who have been very tough against the run.

I like McKinnon's potential, but chasing the Falcon points gives you 4 not quite as great opportunities, 2 against GB, 1 against Carolina and one good one against Miami in week 16. While Pittsburgh and Baltimore ripped Carolina, I think Carolina will right their run D (they were solid last year and have a fantastic front 7) by week 13. I don't think Asiata is going away, especially at the goal line, so enjoy the GB game this weekend, but I don't think McKinnon will break out the rest of the year.

Good stuff, but the problem with these stats is that is INCLUDES the vikings game. How did the ATL rush defense stats look prior to that game? Those stats would be more telling. Using the MIN stats against ATL, and then saying MIN rush attack only did well because they faced ATL is a weak argument.

 

[bigbrownbag]

J. Mckinnon... He quietly had 18-135 last week and asiata got 3 short tds and I have a feeling this kid could be good? anyone else or am I the only one?

"Am I the only one"??? "Quietly had 18-135"??? You're in the wrong forum http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=713864

 

[Long Ball Larry]

One note for all those on the McKinnon bandwagon, they will not play the Falcons every week. Just some horrific stats (even worse in PPR):

1. In FBGs FP allowed, the Falcons are #32 at 10% worse than #31 (Browns).

2. They have allowed 6, yes 6, RBs, i.e. 4 starters and 2 backups, to have 89 to 169 total yards.

3. They have allowed 8 rushing TDs in 4 weeks.

4. They allow 77% more FPs to RBs than the average teams.

While GB is the next game (McKinnon has been limited in practice this week) and also week 12, weeks 6-11 include 1 bye and 5 teams (including Buffalo, Washington and Detroit) that give up 10-17 ppg to RBs as opposed to the 32 ppg the Falcons give up. Weeks 14 and 15 are against the Jets and Detroit again, who have been very tough against the run.

I like McKinnon's potential, but chasing the Falcon points gives you 4 not quite as great opportunities, 2 against GB, 1 against Carolina and one good one against Miami in week 16. While Pittsburgh and Baltimore ripped Carolina, I think Carolina will right their run D (they were solid last year and have a fantastic front 7) by week 13. I don't think Asiata is going away, especially at the goal line, so enjoy the GB game this weekend, but I don't think McKinnon will break out the rest of the year.

Good stuff, but the problem with these stats is that is INCLUDES the vikings game. How did the ATL rush defense stats look prior to that game? Those stats would be more telling. Using the MIN stats against ATL, and then saying MIN rush attack only did well because they faced ATL is a weak argument.

ATL had that crazy TNF game against TB from which it is hard to clean much about the DEF.

FWIW, PFF rated their RUN D for the first 2 games as: -.5 @ CIN and -7.8 vs. NO

Of course, MIN run block for the year is -5.6.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Had to decide whether to stash Crowell or McKinnon at the bottom of my bench. I liked Crowell a lot, but just liked McKinnon's explosiveness better. they are both great stashes, but to me I saw a better lottery ticket in McKinnon than Crowell.

Crowell needs 2 injuries to happen to become the bell cow. As long as one of Tate/West remains healthy, he will always share and thus he's nothing more than a bye-week/flex.

McKinnon I think is an Asiata injury away from potentially making the Vike's HC's to move forward with a youthful offense in TB and JK.

But both are great stashes.

I pretty much agree with this assessment.

 

[Braktastic]

Bishop Sankey - RB - Titans

Coach Ken Whisenhunt said Bishop Sankey will likely get more reps than he has all season against the Browns this week.

"You will see (more reps for Sankey). That's coming," Whisenhunt said. "And I think you'll see more of that earlier in the game this week." Sankey has actually led the Titans' running backs in snaps the past two weeks with 22 and 29, respectively, but they've been coming in the second half when the Titans have been getting plastered on the scoreboard. Whisenhunt is finally realizing Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster aren't good. Sankey has managed 127 yards and one touchdown on 19 touches the past two weeks. Cleveland has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Sankey has RB2 upside.

Source: Nashville Tennessean Oct 1 - 10:49 AM

 

[stbugs]

One note for all those on the McKinnon bandwagon, they will not play the Falcons every week. Just some horrific stats (even worse in PPR):

1. In FBGs FP allowed, the Falcons are #32 at 10% worse than #31 (Browns).

2. They have allowed 6, yes 6, RBs, i.e. 4 starters and 2 backups, to have 89 to 169 total yards.

3. They have allowed 8 rushing TDs in 4 weeks.

4. They allow 77% more FPs to RBs than the average teams.

While GB is the next game (McKinnon has been limited in practice this week) and also week 12, weeks 6-11 include 1 bye and 5 teams (including Buffalo, Washington and Detroit) that give up 10-17 ppg to RBs as opposed to the 32 ppg the Falcons give up. Weeks 14 and 15 are against the Jets and Detroit again, who have been very tough against the run.

I like McKinnon's potential, but chasing the Falcon points gives you 4 not quite as great opportunities, 2 against GB, 1 against Carolina and one good one against Miami in week 16. While Pittsburgh and Baltimore ripped Carolina, I think Carolina will right their run D (they were solid last year and have a fantastic front 7) by week 13. I don't think Asiata is going away, especially at the goal line, so enjoy the GB game this weekend, but I don't think McKinnon will break out the rest of the year.

Good stuff, but the problem with these stats is that is INCLUDES the vikings game. How did the ATL rush defense stats look prior to that game? Those stats would be more telling. Using the MIN stats against ATL, and then saying MIN rush attack only did well because they faced ATL is a weak argument.

ATL had that crazy TNF game against TB from which it is hard to clean much about the DEF.

FWIW, PFF rated their RUN D for the first 2 games as: -.5 @ CIN and -7.8 vs. NO

Of course, MIN run block for the year is -5.6.

What does a run block of -5.6? Is that good or bad? I am assuming the negative for run D is bad.

That said, to answer the question above to my post, all games by Atlanta have been bad IMHO. Tampa is a bit of an outlier in that the game was out of hand quick, i.e. they didn't try to run as much. Here is the detail:

Week 1: 26 carries for 119 yards and 3 TDs and 8 receptions for 64 yards

Week 2: 42 carries for 164 yards and 2 TDs and 7 receptions for 101 yards

Week 3: Rainey 11-41 and 6-74, so even being down quick, still had close to 4ypc and 115 total yards

Week 4: 38 carries for 218 yards and 3 TDs and 4 receptions for 39 yards

In summary, outside of the game they were up 56-0 at the end of the 3rd quarter, they gave up 183 yards and 3 TDs, 265 yards and 2 TDs and 257 yards and 3 TDs. They have been gashed every game outside of Tampa and even then still gave up 115 yards to Rainey with McCown playing like a middle school QB.

 

[Leonidas]

One note for all those on the McKinnon bandwagon, they will not play the Falcons every week. Just some horrific stats (even worse in PPR):

1. In FBGs FP allowed, the Falcons are #32 at 10% worse than #31 (Browns).

2. They have allowed 6, yes 6, RBs, i.e. 4 starters and 2 backups, to have 89 to 169 total yards.

3. They have allowed 8 rushing TDs in 4 weeks.

4. They allow 77% more FPs to RBs than the average teams.

While GB is the next game (McKinnon has been limited in practice this week) and also week 12, weeks 6-11 include 1 bye and 5 teams (including Buffalo, Washington and Detroit) that give up 10-17 ppg to RBs as opposed to the 32 ppg the Falcons give up. Weeks 14 and 15 are against the Jets and Detroit again, who have been very tough against the run.

I like McKinnon's potential, but chasing the Falcon points gives you 4 not quite as great opportunities, 2 against GB, 1 against Carolina and one good one against Miami in week 16. While Pittsburgh and Baltimore ripped Carolina, I think Carolina will right their run D (they were solid last year and have a fantastic front 7) by week 13. I don't think Asiata is going away, especially at the goal line, so enjoy the GB game this weekend, but I don't think McKinnon will break out the rest of the year.

Good stuff, but the problem with these stats is that is INCLUDES the vikings game. How did the ATL rush defense stats look prior to that game? Those stats would be more telling. Using the MIN stats against ATL, and then saying MIN rush attack only did well because they faced ATL is a weak argument.

ATL had that crazy TNF game against TB from which it is hard to clean much about the DEF.

FWIW, PFF rated their RUN D for the first 2 games as: -.5 @ CIN and -7.8 vs. NO

Of course, MIN run block for the year is -5.6.

What does a run block of -5.6? Is that good or bad? I am assuming the negative for run D is bad.

That said, to answer the question above to my post, all games by Atlanta have been bad IMHO. Tampa is a bit of an outlier in that the game was out of hand quick, i.e. they didn't try to run as much. Here is the detail:

Week 1: 26 carries for 119 yards and 3 TDs and 8 receptions for 64 yards

Week 2: 42 carries for 164 yards and 2 TDs and 7 receptions for 101 yards

Week 3: Rainey 11-41 and 6-74, so even being down quick, still had close to 4ypc and 115 total yards

Week 4: 38 carries for 218 yards and 3 TDs and 4 receptions for 39 yards

In summary, outside of the game they were up 56-0 at the end of the 3rd quarter, they gave up 183 yards and 3 TDs, 265 yards and 2 TDs and 257 yards and 3 TDs. They have been gashed every game outside of Tampa and even then still gave up 115 yards to Rainey with McCown playing like a middle school QB.

Exactly.

ATL's run defense is atrocious. They are a must-start for opposing RB's the way WAS/CHI were at times last year

 

[stbugs]

One note for all those on the McKinnon bandwagon, they will not play the Falcons every week. Just some horrific stats (even worse in PPR):

1. In FBGs FP allowed, the Falcons are #32 at 10% worse than #31 (Browns).

2. They have allowed 6, yes 6, RBs, i.e. 4 starters and 2 backups, to have 89 to 169 total yards.

3. They have allowed 8 rushing TDs in 4 weeks.

4. They allow 77% more FPs to RBs than the average teams.

While GB is the next game (McKinnon has been limited in practice this week) and also week 12, weeks 6-11 include 1 bye and 5 teams (including Buffalo, Washington and Detroit) that give up 10-17 ppg to RBs as opposed to the 32 ppg the Falcons give up. Weeks 14 and 15 are against the Jets and Detroit again, who have been very tough against the run.

I like McKinnon's potential, but chasing the Falcon points gives you 4 not quite as great opportunities, 2 against GB, 1 against Carolina and one good one against Miami in week 16. While Pittsburgh and Baltimore ripped Carolina, I think Carolina will right their run D (they were solid last year and have a fantastic front 7) by week 13. I don't think Asiata is going away, especially at the goal line, so enjoy the GB game this weekend, but I don't think McKinnon will break out the rest of the year.

Good stuff, but the problem with these stats is that is INCLUDES the vikings game. How did the ATL rush defense stats look prior to that game? Those stats would be more telling. Using the MIN stats against ATL, and then saying MIN rush attack only did well because they faced ATL is a weak argument.

ATL had that crazy TNF game against TB from which it is hard to clean much about the DEF.

FWIW, PFF rated their RUN D for the first 2 games as: -.5 @ CIN and -7.8 vs. NO

Of course, MIN run block for the year is -5.6.

What does a run block of -5.6? Is that good or bad? I am assuming the negative for run D is bad.

That said, to answer the question above to my post, all games by Atlanta have been bad IMHO. Tampa is a bit of an outlier in that the game was out of hand quick, i.e. they didn't try to run as much. Here is the detail:

Week 1: 26 carries for 119 yards and 3 TDs and 8 receptions for 64 yards

Week 2: 42 carries for 164 yards and 2 TDs and 7 receptions for 101 yards

Week 3: Rainey 11-41 and 6-74, so even being down quick, still had close to 4ypc and 115 total yards

Week 4: 38 carries for 218 yards and 3 TDs and 4 receptions for 39 yards

In summary, outside of the game they were up 56-0 at the end of the 3rd quarter, they gave up 183 yards and 3 TDs, 265 yards and 2 TDs and 257 yards and 3 TDs. They have been gashed every game outside of Tampa and even then still gave up 115 yards to Rainey with McCown playing like a middle school QB.

Exactly.

ATL's run defense is atrocious. They are a must-start for opposing RB's the way WAS/CHI were at times last year

Especially PPR, what I have listed above is 25 receptions for 278 yards or over 10 ypr and 6+ receptions a game. In PPR, that's like an extra 2 TDs per game for RBs receiving.

 

[fatboyj711]

Anyone thinking this may be Jstew's time?

 

[stbugs]

Anyone thinking this may be Jstew's time?

Nope. As a Carolina fan, their running game is mediocre and he is made of glass. Bye week replacement if he is the only RB, but if Williams is active as well, I don't think either of them is worth a start.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Not a rookie or hot name but Jacksonville RB Toby Gerhart is a starter without any competition.

Had an ankle injury but much closer to healthy than anytime this year.

QB change to Bortles looks to be opening things up.

Rookie WRs are getting over growing pains.

He just had his first TD as a Jag last week.

Even if he doesn't blow up he is better positioned than most guys who haven't yet busted out to start producing decent numbers going forward IMHO.

 

[Gary Coal Man]

Not necessarily a breakout, but I can see Andre Williams (NYG) having a productive game against the Falcons dreadful run defense. The Falcons D made both Asiata and McKinnon look like All Pros last week.

Williams had a productive game last week in garbage time against the Redskins (15 carries, 66 yards, 1 TD). If Williams were to have back-to-back solid performances he could have some trade value.

 

[zamboni]

Not a rookie or hot name but Jacksonville RB Toby Gerhart is a starter without any competition.

Had an ankle injury but much closer to healthy than anytime this year.

QB change to Bortles looks to be opening things up.

Rookie WRs are getting over growing pains.

He just had his first TD as a Jag last week.

Even if he doesn't blow up he is better positioned than most guys who haven't yet busted out to start producing decent numbers going forward IMHO.

He's already sharing carries with Denard Robinson, who had a lot more snaps than Gerhart did last Sunday.

Granted Robinson is not an everydown back and Gerhart's production may improve now with Bortles at the helm, but Gerhart has his own limitations (speed/elusiveness) as well that may keep him in a timeshare.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Not a rookie or hot name but Jacksonville RB Toby Gerhart is a starter without any competition.

Had an ankle injury but much closer to healthy than anytime this year.

QB change to Bortles looks to be opening things up.

Rookie WRs are getting over growing pains.

He just had his first TD as a Jag last week.

Even if he doesn't blow up he is better positioned than most guys who haven't yet busted out to start producing decent numbers going forward IMHO.

He's already sharing carries with Denard Robinson, who had a lot more snaps than Gerhart did last Sunday.

Granted Robinson is not an everydown back and Gerhart's production may improve now with Bortles at the helm, but Gerhart has his own limitations (speed/elusiveness) as well that may keep him in a timeshare.

The last game with Toby still coming back from his ankle injury Denard Robinson was on the field more and he produced the following:

- 9 carries

- 25 rushing yards

- 2.8 yards per carry

- 0 TDs

- 3 receptions

- 7 receiving yards

- 2.3 yards per reception

Gerhart had:

- 10 carries

- 30 yards

- 3.0 yards per carry

- 1 TD

- 1 reception

- 8 yards

- 8.0 yards per reception

Toby Gerhart and Denard Robinson both stand 6'0 tall but Toby outweighs Denard by 30 lbs.

Gerhart was signed to a big contract this offseason to be the starting RB and he started out the season with 18 carries before he injured his ankle. He is starting to get healthy and with Bortles taking over I think it will open things up with the entire offense and I think Gerhart will assume the starting RB role once his ankle is completely healthy.

I don't think Denard is a threat. He hasn't done anything in the running or passing game and he's not a goal line threat and he's not breaking long runs or receptions.

Therefore I think Toby Gerhart is a RB who is a player who many are overlooking because they have already written him off when it appears he is positioned nicely to step-up into decent #2 RB territory.

 

[IheartGuinness]

Anyone thinking this may be Jstew's time?

If by "this," you mean "2009," then yes...absolutely.

 

[zamboni]

Not a rookie or hot name but Jacksonville RB Toby Gerhart is a starter without any competition.

Had an ankle injury but much closer to healthy than anytime this year.

QB change to Bortles looks to be opening things up.

Rookie WRs are getting over growing pains.

He just had his first TD as a Jag last week.

Even if he doesn't blow up he is better positioned than most guys who haven't yet busted out to start producing decent numbers going forward IMHO.

He's already sharing carries with Denard Robinson, who had a lot more snaps than Gerhart did last Sunday.

Granted Robinson is not an everydown back and Gerhart's production may improve now with Bortles at the helm, but Gerhart has his own limitations (speed/elusiveness) as well that may keep him in a timeshare.

The last game with Toby still coming back from his ankle injury Denard Robinson was on the field more and he produced the following:

- 9 carries

- 25 rushing yards

- 2.8 yards per carry

- 0 TDs

- 3 receptions

- 7 receiving yards

- 2.3 yards per reception

Gerhart had:

- 10 carries

- 30 yards

- 3.0 yards per carry

- 1 TD

- 1 reception

- 8 yards

- 8.0 yards per reception

Toby Gerhart and Denard Robinson both stand 6'0 tall but Toby outweighs Denard by 30 lbs.

Gerhart was signed to a big contract this offseason to be the starting RB and he started out the season with 18 carries before he injured his ankle. He is starting to get healthy and with Bortles taking over I think it will open things up with the entire offense and I think Gerhart will assume the starting RB role once his ankle is completely healthy.

I don't think Denard is a threat. He hasn't done anything in the running or passing game and he's not a goal line threat and he's not breaking long runs or receptions.

Therefore I think Toby Gerhart is a RB who is a player who many are overlooking because they have already written him off when it appears he is positioned nicely to step-up into decent #2 RB territory.

It's been tough sledding for any RB behind that line and with Henne at the helm.

But yes, Gerhart should improve with Bortles there, but it could also stand to reason that he's just not that good and just another plodder.

The next few games should be telling.

 

[ceejee]

Donald Brown gets utterly stuffed by the Jets, they bring in Oliver who ends up with 4-5 catches (one of which is 20+), and about 7 carries for just under 100 yards, and a garbage time TD.

 

[chinawildman]

Donald Brown gets utterly stuffed by the Jets, they bring in Oliver who ends up with 4-5 catches (one of which is 20+), and about 7 carries for just under 100 yards, and a garbage time TD.

Not sure if it will be in such dramatic fashion, but this is a likely scenario. In fact I think they start with Oliver early because they already started going to the rookie more in the 2nd half last week. I like your projections for the receptions, but I don't think he'll eclipse 50 yds rushing.

 

[tombonneau]

Situation-wise I gotta say Branden Oliver. Just seems to fulfill all the requirements of a backup RB stash.

1) Struggling/Injured starter - Donald Brown is averaging a historically bad 1.97 ypc. Matthews's ligaments are made of tissue paper.

2) Team that likes to throw to RBs - 4 catches for 33 yds in his first full game.

3) Good offense and QB leading to plenty of scoring opportunities

4) Returns kickoffs if you're in a return yd league

5) Playing time trending upwards - McCoy insinuating more snaps for the kid.

Only negatives I see are an oline that isn't run blocking well and a terrible matchup against the Jets this week.

I'm on board. Picked him up after waivers, surprised he was still there in competitive 14-team league (especially one with a few SD homers). Like you say, he ticks all the boxes that you want for a flyer RB. Seems like a no-brainer.

 

[Interseptopus]

Crowell is a Tate injury away from being a stud.

The film shows he's the beneficiary of great blocking on his carries, not due to ability.

We're talking fantasy football here. You don't get more points for McCoy than you do for Asiata simply because of the differences in blocking

But it does say that he hasn't been "studly" and that affects playing time/ling term outlook. While some only stat watch, I've watched every single carry of Browns rbs this season multiple times (all 22 film/ game replay) and that's what it shows me. I own none of Crowell/ Tate/West. But I would value them as Tate, West, Crowell by their individual performances.

I think you're seeng what you want to see.

If I own none of them, then how am I biased? I'm not saying Crowell is a bad player, just that he's had great opportunities handed to him on a silver platter for many of his carries. I would say anyone that disagrees probably owns him, doesn't watch film, or doesn't know how to watch film.Either way, I'm trying to help you guys by cautioning your expectations. Take it or toss it in the garbage. But I do my homework on players.

Is watching the game considered watching film? Or do guys actually watch film... You know like rewinding and playing every 3 seconds.

 

[chinawildman]

Looks like Storm Johnson is gonna get some reps this weekend. Could be nothing, or could be this year's Zac Stacy...

http://members.jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/400642/hays-carlyon/2014-10-03/jaguars-coach-gus-bradley-says-rookie-rb-storm-johnson

 

[tdmills]

Crowell is a Tate injury away from being a stud.

The film shows he's the beneficiary of great blocking on his carries, not due to ability.

We're talking fantasy football here. You don't get more points for McCoy than you do for Asiata simply because of the differences in blocking

But it does say that he hasn't been "studly" and that affects playing time/ling term outlook. While some only stat watch, I've watched every single carry of Browns rbs this season multiple times (all 22 film/ game replay) and that's what it shows me. I own none of Crowell/ Tate/West. But I would value them as Tate, West, Crowell by their individual performances.

I think you're seeng what you want to see.

If I own none of them, then how am I biased? I'm not saying Crowell is a bad player, just that he's had great opportunities handed to him on a silver platter for many of his carries. I would say anyone that disagrees probably owns him, doesn't watch film, or doesn't know how to watch film.Either way, I'm trying to help you guys by cautioning your expectations. Take it or toss it in the garbage. But I do my homework on players.

Is watching the game considered watching film? Or do guys actually watch film... You know like rewinding and playing every 3 seconds.

I defined this in an earlier post, but I have the all-22 and replay stuff from nfl.com. this allows me access to the coaches film which is from a wider sideline angle and another shot from the end zone of each play. I generally watch each play twice.