RBs being scarfed up in drafts (1 Viewer)

[Run It Up]

I don't understand why some of you insist on playing fantasy football. Why not just play fantasy running back. You set up your leagues to make every other position irrelevant.

RB-RB-RB blah blah it doesn't matter after that. I mean, what on earth are you guys playing when LeVeon Bell is ranked higher than Tom Brady? Do you ever stop and think to yourselves, "My god, this is idiotic."?

No one is saying that....its a question of supply and demand.

The difference between taking Brady and taking Romo is about 3 PPG based on standard scoring. Romo you can get in the 7th round.

The difference between taking a RB in the first or a RB in the 3rd is you end up with a guy in a time share that is getting you 7-10 points less.

Huge difference. Why waste a pick on a QB high when there are 15 of them who score within 4-5 points of each other. There are not 30+ RB that are weekly fantasy starters.

But that's not guaranteed. Cue the stats for turnover in the running back department.

If you have a good feel for a RB in the 4th or 5th round that pans out, go for it. Myself, if I am at one of the turns, I am going to go WR/WR the first time it comes to me because whatever productivity I lose at the RB2 spot will be made up by having my WR2 being astoundingly ahead of the game. Do the odds favor the team that go RB/RB? Probably, but I wouldn't say definitively so. Besides, if you do what everyone else does, you are in the same pile of odds as everyone else. Going against the grain and being at the front end of a run rather than the tail end... particularly if you are at either of the turns... you can still get good return on your investment.

Big difference between going WR/WR at the 1st/2nd turn than WR/WR at the 2nd/3rd turn. Doing the former would pretty much be FF suicide this year.

I disagree. Loading up on RBs at the end of the first round run seems like you're willing to take what's left just because of the shortage. But if what's left isn't that much different than what you'd get at the end of the third, why rush? If I'm being pushed into taking Steven Jackson or LeSean McCoy, guys who are presumed to be good players but still back end RB1s, or getting the #2 and 3 WRs on my board, then it comes down to what the difference is between the backs I would get at 1.11 or 1.12 and the ones I'm getting at 3.11 or 3.12.

No matter who I take at RB in the first round, I will always be at a presumed disadvantage at the RB1 position to those who drafted in the top 5-10 spots. Yes, some settling occurs during shipping, but unless I really like one of the guys who comes to me (I've gotten Rice at 1.11 on a couple of mocks) then I need to look to make up the points I've already fallen behind. Why must I try to make them up at my RB2, especially if I'm not giddy over who would be RB1? Why can't I try to make up the difference by having the best WR2 in the league? Yes, the depth at WR is good this year, but if I get RBs 23 and 25 (-ish... at worst) at the 3/4 turn but the WRs 2 and 3 to start, is that significantly worse than RBs 10 and 12 and then WRs... what.... 11 and 14? Just typing that makes me feel very middle-of-the-road.

Picking RB/RB at the tail end of the RB run in the opening rounds sets you up to be forced into WR/WR at the tail end of the inevitable WR run coming in round 3. My last mock I got the 20th and 22nd RBs off the board from the 11 spot, guys who I had above quite a few of the guys ahead of them. I feel I still got value at my RB position. I don't expect it to be what I would have gotten if I went RB/RB, but I expect the difference to be less than the WRs I get at 1/2 and what I would have gotten at 3/4. Dez, Julio, Sproles and David Wilson was my last mock, and I would take that over having to force Shady and SJax and then settle for Andre Johnson and Wes Welker.

I can see going RB/WR if the right RB falls to me, but I just see a RB/RB start at the back turn forcing me into the same bad position in rounds 3 and 4. The only way to break that cycle to me seems to be to get at least one WR early. And since I think the top 4 WRs are significantly better than the "depth" picks that will be filling other people's rosters at their WR2 and even their WR1 spots (if they go for Brees, Rodgers or Graham early), I feel I'm maximizing the options I have.

I'm sorry, over the past two weeks I've been in the hospital and I've spent that time doing extensive mocking from every seat. The 10-11-12 seats are consistently HORRID if you don't go RB/RB. If you play in a league where you have to start 2 RBs, I just don't see a way to not go RB/RB at the 10/15 turn. Ive had rare success going RB/WR but its completely unrealistic.

At the 3.12 your looking at Montee Ball, LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Ryan Mathews, Ahmad Bradshaw, Rashard Mendenhall and Gio/BJGE, what patchwork RB core are you going to stitch together here that will make up for your net point differential from going RB/TE, WR/WR, WR/TE? There is such great WR value this year in the 3rd and 4th specifically because the run on RBs lasts for almost 40 picks.

Did I mention that snake drafts are garbage and that the 1-5 seat have such a ludicrous advantage this year?

 

[Kenny Powers]

I don't understand why some of you insist on playing fantasy football. Why not just play fantasy running back. You set up your leagues to make every other position irrelevant.

RB-RB-RB blah blah it doesn't matter after that. I mean, what on earth are you guys playing when LeVeon Bell is ranked higher than Tom Brady? Do you ever stop and think to yourselves, "My god, this is idiotic."?

No one is saying that....its a question of supply and demand.

The difference between taking Brady and taking Romo is about 3 PPG based on standard scoring. Romo you can get in the 7th round.

The difference between taking a RB in the first or a RB in the 3rd is you end up with a guy in a time share that is getting you 7-10 points less.

Huge difference. Why waste a pick on a QB high when there are 15 of them who score within 4-5 points of each other. There are not 30+ RB that are weekly fantasy starters.

But that's not guaranteed. Cue the stats for turnover in the running back department.

If you have a good feel for a RB in the 4th or 5th round that pans out, go for it. Myself, if I am at one of the turns, I am going to go WR/WR the first time it comes to me because whatever productivity I lose at the RB2 spot will be made up by having my WR2 being astoundingly ahead of the game. Do the odds favor the team that go RB/RB? Probably, but I wouldn't say definitively so. Besides, if you do what everyone else does, you are in the same pile of odds as everyone else. Going against the grain and being at the front end of a run rather than the tail end... particularly if you are at either of the turns... you can still get good return on your investment.

Big difference between going WR/WR at the 1st/2nd turn than WR/WR at the 2nd/3rd turn. Doing the former would pretty much be FF suicide this year.

I disagree. Loading up on RBs at the end of the first round run seems like you're willing to take what's left just because of the shortage. But if what's left isn't that much different than what you'd get at the end of the third, why rush? If I'm being pushed into taking Steven Jackson or LeSean McCoy, guys who are presumed to be good players but still back end RB1s, or getting the #2 and 3 WRs on my board, then it comes down to what the difference is between the backs I would get at 1.11 or 1.12 and the ones I'm getting at 3.11 or 3.12.

No matter who I take at RB in the first round, I will always be at a presumed disadvantage at the RB1 position to those who drafted in the top 5-10 spots. Yes, some settling occurs during shipping, but unless I really like one of the guys who comes to me (I've gotten Rice at 1.11 on a couple of mocks) then I need to look to make up the points I've already fallen behind. Why must I try to make them up at my RB2, especially if I'm not giddy over who would be RB1? Why can't I try to make up the difference by having the best WR2 in the league? Yes, the depth at WR is good this year, but if I get RBs 23 and 25 (-ish... at worst) at the 3/4 turn but the WRs 2 and 3 to start, is that significantly worse than RBs 10 and 12 and then WRs... what.... 11 and 14? Just typing that makes me feel very middle-of-the-road.

Picking RB/RB at the tail end of the RB run in the opening rounds sets you up to be forced into WR/WR at the tail end of the inevitable WR run coming in round 3. My last mock I got the 20th and 22nd RBs off the board from the 11 spot, guys who I had above quite a few of the guys ahead of them. I feel I still got value at my RB position. I don't expect it to be what I would have gotten if I went RB/RB, but I expect the difference to be less than the WRs I get at 1/2 and what I would have gotten at 3/4. Dez, Julio, Sproles and David Wilson was my last mock, and I would take that over having to force Shady and SJax and then settle for Andre Johnson and Wes Welker.

I can see going RB/WR if the right RB falls to me, but I just see a RB/RB start at the back turn forcing me into the same bad position in rounds 3 and 4. The only way to break that cycle to me seems to be to get at least one WR early. And since I think the top 4 WRs are significantly better than the "depth" picks that will be filling other people's rosters at their WR2 and even their WR1 spots (if they go for Brees, Rodgers or Graham early), I feel I'm maximizing the options I have.

I'm sorry, over the past two weeks I've been in the hospital and I've spent that time doing extensive mocking from every seat. The 10-11-12 seats are consistently HORRID if you don't go RB/RB. If you play in a league where you have to start 2 RBs, I just don't see a way to not go RB/RB at the 10/15 turn. Ive had rare success going RB/WR but its completely unrealistic.

At the 3.12 your looking at Montee Ball, LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Ryan Mathews, Ahmad Bradshaw, Rashard Mendenhall and Gio/BJGE, what patchwork RB core are you going to stitch together here that will make up for your net point differential from going RB/TE, WR/WR, WR/TE? There is such great WR value this year in the 3rd and 4th specifically because the run on RBs lasts for almost 40 picks.

Did I mention that snake drafts are garbage and that the 1-5 seat have such a ludicrous advantage this year?

Exactly. The way Bell is wowing in TC so far makes me think he's going to be a solid RB people using this strategy can count on, but 3.12 is a full round ahead of his ADP. Plus 2 of my 3 leagues are PIT homer leagues so I can't plan on him being around at any point past the mid-3rd as its a toss up when he will get picked.

After Calvin, there isnt much difference in the next WRs off the board, and while I agree the next handful of WRs after him are the best bets to finish that high for a few reasons (talent, age, situation namely), the margin between them and the next dozen of WRs is not much. I am much more comfortable getting 2 of those WRs (Cruz, Jordy, VJax are 3 of my favorites in that range) after going RB/RB early, then the alternative like the guys you mention in your post at RB had I started off WR/WR. Honestly besides Bell I wouldnt feel good if I had any of them as my RB2. The production from them will likely be rather inconsistent, if not hard to determine their floor, where as the WRs you can get in that same range are really good players.

And at McSpiffy being "pushed" into taking McCoy at the end of the 1st. Clearly some blinders are on here.

 

[bagger]

I think the point about where there are pockets of value are important.

I think the in the early to mid first and second rounds the value is RB.

Rounds 3-5 there is huge value in WR.

Round 6-7 there is huge value in QB and to a lesser extent TE.

7-8 there is more value at WR.

Then in rounds 9-10 there is a ton of value at RB again. Franklin, B Pierce, Bradshaw, Woodhead.

From the 6 spot I am completely compelled to draft RB/RB because there ar not RBs I like in terms of value until round 9 and so much value at every other key position I am much better off loading up on RB and while people at scrambling for RBBC backs that will underperform I will be getting Cruz, A Brown, J Nelson, a QB like Luck, RG3 or Romo, and a TE like Olsen.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I think the point about where there are pockets of value are important.

I think the in the early to mid first and second rounds the value is RB.

Rounds 3-5 there is huge value in WR.

Round 6-7 there is huge value in QB and to a lesser extent TE.

7-8 there is more value at WR.

Then in rounds 9-10 there is a ton of value at RB again. Franklin, B Pierce, Bradshaw, Woodhead.

From the 6 spot I am completely compelled to draft RB/RB because there ar not RBs I like in terms of value until round 9 and so much value at every other key position I am much better off loading up on RB and while people at scrambling for RBBC backs that will underperform I will be getting Cruz, A Brown, J Nelson, a QB like Luck, RG3 or Romo, and a TE like Olsen.

I think this is a key point and one that suggests it's a bad move to go WR-WR at 12/13. Let's say you take Green and Dez. Now you get to 36/37 where there's killer WR1 value, but you've already made your bed and need to draft questionable RBs that you can only hope will play to RB1 levels. Chances are they don't. However, had you drafted SJax/Morris, now you can pick up a White/A. Johnson at the 3/4 turn; guys that have a much higher chance of performing as WR1s.

Yup. Im starting to be glad that FBGs like McSpiffy, Hotboyz, and others can be convinced of this though because I need people like them to continue thinking RB/RB is a bad move

 

[eoMMan]

After I snatch up Doug Martin, I'm thinking of going WR-WR.....maybe like Aj Green and Roddy White. Then a bunch of rbs and a Romo/Kaepetnik later...

how many teams are in your league? I don't see you getting green and Martin in a 12 team redraft

10 team

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

I don't understand why some of you insist on playing fantasy football. Why not just play fantasy running back. You set up your leagues to make every other position irrelevant.

RB-RB-RB blah blah it doesn't matter after that. I mean, what on earth are you guys playing when LeVeon Bell is ranked higher than Tom Brady? Do you ever stop and think to yourselves, "My god, this is idiotic."?

No one is saying that....its a question of supply and demand.

The difference between taking Brady and taking Romo is about 3 PPG based on standard scoring. Romo you can get in the 7th round.

The difference between taking a RB in the first or a RB in the 3rd is you end up with a guy in a time share that is getting you 7-10 points less.

Huge difference. Why waste a pick on a QB high when there are 15 of them who score within 4-5 points of each other. There are not 30+ RB that are weekly fantasy starters.

But that's not guaranteed. Cue the stats for turnover in the running back department.

If you have a good feel for a RB in the 4th or 5th round that pans out, go for it. Myself, if I am at one of the turns, I am going to go WR/WR the first time it comes to me because whatever productivity I lose at the RB2 spot will be made up by having my WR2 being astoundingly ahead of the game. Do the odds favor the team that go RB/RB? Probably, but I wouldn't say definitively so. Besides, if you do what everyone else does, you are in the same pile of odds as everyone else. Going against the grain and being at the front end of a run rather than the tail end... particularly if you are at either of the turns... you can still get good return on your investment.

Big difference between going WR/WR at the 1st/2nd turn than WR/WR at the 2nd/3rd turn. Doing the former would pretty much be FF suicide this year.

I disagree. Loading up on RBs at the end of the first round run seems like you're willing to take what's left just because of the shortage. But if what's left isn't that much different than what you'd get at the end of the third, why rush? If I'm being pushed into taking Steven Jackson or LeSean McCoy, guys who are presumed to be good players but still back end RB1s, or getting the #2 and 3 WRs on my board, then it comes down to what the difference is between the backs I would get at 1.11 or 1.12 and the ones I'm getting at 3.11 or 3.12.

No matter who I take at RB in the first round, I will always be at a presumed disadvantage at the RB1 position to those who drafted in the top 5-10 spots. Yes, some settling occurs during shipping, but unless I really like one of the guys who comes to me (I've gotten Rice at 1.11 on a couple of mocks) then I need to look to make up the points I've already fallen behind. Why must I try to make them up at my RB2, especially if I'm not giddy over who would be RB1? Why can't I try to make up the difference by having the best WR2 in the league? Yes, the depth at WR is good this year, but if I get RBs 23 and 25 (-ish... at worst) at the 3/4 turn but the WRs 2 and 3 to start, is that significantly worse than RBs 10 and 12 and then WRs... what.... 11 and 14? Just typing that makes me feel very middle-of-the-road.

Picking RB/RB at the tail end of the RB run in the opening rounds sets you up to be forced into WR/WR at the tail end of the inevitable WR run coming in round 3. My last mock I got the 20th and 22nd RBs off the board from the 11 spot, guys who I had above quite a few of the guys ahead of them. I feel I still got value at my RB position. I don't expect it to be what I would have gotten if I went RB/RB, but I expect the difference to be less than the WRs I get at 1/2 and what I would have gotten at 3/4. Dez, Julio, Sproles and David Wilson was my last mock, and I would take that over having to force Shady and SJax and then settle for Andre Johnson and Wes Welker.

I can see going RB/WR if the right RB falls to me, but I just see a RB/RB start at the back turn forcing me into the same bad position in rounds 3 and 4. The only way to break that cycle to me seems to be to get at least one WR early. And since I think the top 4 WRs are significantly better than the "depth" picks that will be filling other people's rosters at their WR2 and even their WR1 spots (if they go for Brees, Rodgers or Graham early), I feel I'm maximizing the options I have.

I'm sorry, over the past two weeks I've been in the hospital and I've spent that time doing extensive mocking from every seat. The 10-11-12 seats are consistently HORRID if you don't go RB/RB. If you play in a league where you have to start 2 RBs, I just don't see a way to not go RB/RB at the 10/15 turn. Ive had rare success going RB/WR but its completely unrealistic.

At the 3.12 your looking at Montee Ball, LeVeon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Ryan Mathews, Ahmad Bradshaw, Rashard Mendenhall and Gio/BJGE, what patchwork RB core are you going to stitch together here that will make up for your net point differential from going RB/TE, WR/WR, WR/TE? There is such great WR value this year in the 3rd and 4th specifically because the run on RBs lasts for almost 40 picks.

Did I mention that snake drafts are garbage and that the 1-5 seat have such a ludicrous advantage this year?

Exactly. The way Bell is wowing in TC so far makes me think he's going to be a solid RB people using this strategy can count on, but 3.12 is a full round ahead of his ADP. Plus 2 of my 3 leagues are PIT homer leagues so I can't plan on him being around at any point past the mid-3rd as its a toss up when he will get picked.

After Calvin, there isnt much difference in the next WRs off the board, and while I agree the next handful of WRs after him are the best bets to finish that high for a few reasons (talent, age, situation namely), the margin between them and the next dozen of WRs is not much. I am much more comfortable getting 2 of those WRs (Cruz, Jordy, VJax are 3 of my favorites in that range) after going RB/RB early, then the alternative like the guys you mention in your post at RB had I started off WR/WR. Honestly besides Bell I wouldnt feel good if I had any of them as my RB2. The production from them will likely be rather inconsistent, if not hard to determine their floor, where as the WRs you can get in that same range are really good players.

And at McSpiffy being "pushed" into taking McCoy at the end of the 1st. Clearly some blinders are on here.

So, setting aside the fact that I am leery about this Chip Kelly schtick working, especially with the turnover slot machine that is Michael Vick, but preseason can convince me otherwise. But that's not the point....

You like Bell. So do I. So if I think he can perform like a viable RB, why are you handcuffing yourself to the VBD model to the point of being a detriment? "Well, if I take him, then I am taking him earlier than he is supposed to be taken!" So, in essence, you are letting the league draft your team for you. If I am in the middle of a round, I am most assuredly using VBD because I'm not letting two rounds go by before I draft and there's not going to be a position group tier that gets completely drained of talent before I come up again. But if I am at the turn, it's two rounds until I pick again and there's a good chance that whatever need my team has could get bled dry before it comes around to me again, especially this year where groupthink is basically breaking each round down into a position run.

When you state where the "values" are, what it feels like you are saying is that 70% of the picks in that round will be that position because "that's where the value is." So you are fairly much condemning yourself to take part in every run (hence being at the tail end of every run) because "that's where the value is." But if you have guys like Bell and Sproles ahead of players who will certainly be taken in the 2nd or 3rd rounds (I'm thinking MJD and Murray, in particular... ) and in the same neighborhood as others (such as CJ2K and Ridley), then why force the RB picks because "value" tells you that's what you are supposed to do? For me, I see a smaller gap between the guys I'll get in the 3rd/4th than other people seemingly do. The gap is still there, but I'm already trailing the guys sitting at picks 1-4 at the RB1 position no matter what, so why not pick up an advantage, especially if I see the gap between the top 5 receivers and the next ten as being larger than the Bell/Sproles/Wilson gap is from MJD/CJ2K/Ridley?

If I go RB/RB and the guy with the #1 pick does the same, what is the projected difference between my RB2 and his? My calculations tell me it's a lot less than the difference between his RB1 and mine. So yeah, I'll give up the RB race, let that gap be a little larger, but make that up in the WR department by having a WR2 in Julio Jones or AJ Green while others are happy with the milquetoast "value" of Andre Johnson.

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

I think the point about where there are pockets of value are important.

I think the in the early to mid first and second rounds the value is RB.

Rounds 3-5 there is huge value in WR.

Round 6-7 there is huge value in QB and to a lesser extent TE.

7-8 there is more value at WR.

Then in rounds 9-10 there is a ton of value at RB again. Franklin, B Pierce, Bradshaw, Woodhead.

From the 6 spot I am completely compelled to draft RB/RB because there ar not RBs I like in terms of value until round 9 and so much value at every other key position I am much better off loading up on RB and while people at scrambling for RBBC backs that will underperform I will be getting Cruz, A Brown, J Nelson, a QB like Luck, RG3 or Romo, and a TE like Olsen.

I just can't get on board with any RB in round two from the 6th slot unless Forte is available. I much prefer to to grab a Dez, Julio type WR from my mocks and studies. Round three I am more inclined to appreciate the RB I get there.

 

[Kenny Powers]

You like Bell. So do I. So if I think he can perform like a viable RB, why are you handcuffing yourself to the VBD model to the point of being a detriment? "Well, if I take him, then I am taking him earlier than he is supposed to be taken!" So, in essence, you are letting the league draft your team for you. If I am in the middle of a round, I am most assuredly using VBD because I'm not letting two rounds go by before I draft and there's not going to be a position group tier that gets completely drained of talent before I come up again. But if I am at the turn, it's two rounds until I pick again and there's a good chance that whatever need my team has could get bled dry before it comes around to me again, especially this year where groupthink is basically breaking each round down into a position run.

When you state where the "values" are, what it feels like you are saying is that 70% of the picks in that round will be that position because "that's where the value is." So you are fairly much condemning yourself to take part in every run (hence being at the tail end of every run) because "that's where the value is." But if you have guys like Bell and Sproles ahead of players who will certainly be taken in the 2nd or 3rd rounds (I'm thinking MJD and Murray, in particular... ) and in the same neighborhood as others (such as CJ2K and Ridley), then why force the RB picks because "value" tells you that's what you are supposed to do? For me, I see a smaller gap between the guys I'll get in the 3rd/4th than other people seemingly do. The gap is still there, but I'm already trailing the guys sitting at picks 1-4 at the RB1 position no matter what, so why not pick up an advantage, especially if I see the gap between the top 5 receivers and the next ten as being larger than the Bell/Sproles/Wilson gap is from MJD/CJ2K/Ridley?

If I go RB/RB and the guy with the #1 pick does the same, what is the projected difference between my RB2 and his? My calculations tell me it's a lot less than the difference between his RB1 and mine. So yeah, I'll give up the RB race, let that gap be a little larger, but make that up in the WR department by having a WR2 in Julio Jones or AJ Green while others are happy with the milquetoast "value" of Andre Johnson.

Your first paragraph is correct on drafting theory, or at least my approach. I didnt say I would pass on Bell at the end of the 3rd, I just said that he is the only RB at that point that I think you can remotely count on. Also, it would be a full round over his ADP, which removes much of the value of picking him.

I said nothing about "values" in my last post or any in that group of postings. You seem far too interested in starting a "run", too worried about being at the tail end of a "run", and not realizing you might be in the middle of a "run" or taking the positional value that presents itself. Im not going to get into specific players because some Im quite high on, others I almost wont touch, but in general I think there is a big difference between the RB you can get in round 2 and the RB you hope will be their at your pick in round 3 or 4. I also think the difference between the WRs you can get in round 2 being very similar to those in round 3 and round 4, to a lesser degree.

You are overanalyzing this from a draft slot perspective. Those who pick early have an advantage every year, this isnt the first. If youre drafting in the 2nd half of the round, you make up ground by picking the right players, not necessarily gaining an advantage at another (different) position.

 

[Kenny Powers]

I think the point about where there are pockets of value are important.

I think the in the early to mid first and second rounds the value is RB.

Rounds 3-5 there is huge value in WR.

Round 6-7 there is huge value in QB and to a lesser extent TE.

7-8 there is more value at WR.

Then in rounds 9-10 there is a ton of value at RB again. Franklin, B Pierce, Bradshaw, Woodhead.

From the 6 spot I am completely compelled to draft RB/RB because there ar not RBs I like in terms of value until round 9 and so much value at every other key position I am much better off loading up on RB and while people at scrambling for RBBC backs that will underperform I will be getting Cruz, A Brown, J Nelson, a QB like Luck, RG3 or Romo, and a TE like Olsen.

I just can't get on board with any RB in round two from the 6th slot unless Forte is available. I much prefer to to grab a Dez, Julio type WR from my mocks and studies. Round three I am more inclined to appreciate the RB I get there.

I like Forte as you do, but Im easily picking Ridley or SJax there over a WR. I think both of them are much more likely for RB1 level season, with consistency, then the RBs going round 3 - MJD, Murray, Gore, Bush, DMC, Wilson, Sproles. While I do like a few of those guys, I dont see any ending up as RB1's, and you can still pick a WR in the 3rd that has great potential to finish as a WR1.

 

[Pumpnick]

a bit off topic but..... for those of you that are adamant about going RB/RB to start, is having a chance at calvin #9 in a ppr just too much to pass up? I generally like to secure my RB's in the first 2 rounds, but may have to bite the bullet and go wr if he is there. The top 8 picks would all be rb.

 

[hotboyz]

I think this is exactly why 3 yrs ago we changed from the standard 1/2/3/1 format and went to 1/1/1/1 with 3 flex RB/WR with the lack of RB depth I wanted to give other options instead of herding RB it's brought good variety til our draft but way our scoring is set up every champ usually has a too 5 QB

 

[Kenny Powers]

a bit off topic but..... for those of you that are adamant about going RB/RB to start, is having a chance at calvin #9 in a ppr just too much to pass up? I generally like to secure my RB's in the first 2 rounds, but may have to bite the bullet and go wr if he is there. The top 8 picks would all be rb.

As much as Im on the RB/RB bandwagon, you absolutely pick Megatron at that point and then go from there.

 

[Judge Smails]

It's going to depend on the league. Mine is a 12 team, all 6 point TD, non PPR league with 1QB, 2RB, 3WR and 1 flex starting. Guys in my league can't resist high scoring QB's. So expecting Rodgers and Manning or Brees to go in the first round. So will Calvin. I'm confident I'll get a good RB at 11 that is not the typical end of a run reach. In years past it might be a decision over a Murray, McFadden, SJax type reach. Guys with mileage or injury issues. Not this year. We're talking Lynch, Spiller, McCoy, Rice, Morris types. Someone will fall, and any of those could produce more than Foster, who will go 2 in a lot of drafts. I'm almost certainly going RB at 11. My next cut off for RB is Forte. If he is there at 14 I might go that route, but more than likely going who's left between AJ Green and Dez Bryant. I like both to have monster years. Gives me flexibility where I don't have to reach with the next 4 picks.

That's the plan for now, but I'll be nimble based on the picks before me. The only I do know is I won't go WR/WR from the 11th spot like I might have in years past or taking a QB. It's RB/WR or RB/RB for me. I know with the flex and no PPR I should lean to 2 RB's but I have to feel very good about an RB to take one at 14 over surefire stud WR's.

 

[Sweetness_34]

I don't understand why some of you insist on playing fantasy football. Why not just play fantasy running back. You set up your leagues to make every other position irrelevant.

RB-RB-RB blah blah it doesn't matter after that. I mean, what on earth are you guys playing when LeVeon Bell is ranked higher than Tom Brady? Do you ever stop and think to yourselves, "My god, this is idiotic."?

It is not idiotic when you know you can get a QB drafted after 11 are gone and still have not much difference in production per game. While the RB in that round is a huge risk

 

[chickensoup]

a bit off topic but..... for those of you that are adamant about going RB/RB to start, is having a chance at calvin #9 in a ppr just too much to pass up? I generally like to secure my RB's in the first 2 rounds, but may have to bite the bullet and go wr if he is there. The top 8 picks would all be rb.

It's not necessarily getting a RB/RB start IMO, it's getting a RB in the first 2 rounds. At 9 you will likely have one of SJax, Forte, maybe someone like Morris on your next pick. Most people who advocate RB early wouldn't say go RB/RB in all situations. If Mega is there at 9 you take him absolutely. It's the second round that's important because its the difference between trotting Forte out every week or hoping someone with questions surrounding them like MJD or David Wilson gets to you the next time you pick AND they end up being decent

 

[Pumpnick]

a bit off topic but..... for those of you that are adamant about going RB/RB to start, is having a chance at calvin #9 in a ppr just too much to pass up? I generally like to secure my RB's in the first 2 rounds, but may have to bite the bullet and go wr if he is there. The top 8 picks would all be rb.

It's not necessarily getting a RB/RB start IMO, it's getting a RB in the first 2 rounds. At 9 you will likely have one of SJax, Forte, maybe someone like Morris on your next pick. Most people who advocate RB early wouldn't say go RB/RB in all situations. If Mega is there at 9 you take him absolutely. It's the second round that's important because its the difference between trotting Forte out every week or hoping someone with questions surrounding them like MJD or David Wilson gets to you the next time you pick AND they end up being decent

i dont expect forte or sjax there in the 2nd or someone like mjd in the 3rd. it will be a very rb heavy first 3 rounds. would probably wind up with something like mega, CJ, gore

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

I think the point about where there are pockets of value are important.

I think the in the early to mid first and second rounds the value is RB.

Rounds 3-5 there is huge value in WR.

Round 6-7 there is huge value in QB and to a lesser extent TE.

7-8 there is more value at WR.

Then in rounds 9-10 there is a ton of value at RB again. Franklin, B Pierce, Bradshaw, Woodhead.

From the 6 spot I am completely compelled to draft RB/RB because there ar not RBs I like in terms of value until round 9 and so much value at every other key position I am much better off loading up on RB and while people at scrambling for RBBC backs that will underperform I will be getting Cruz, A Brown, J Nelson, a QB like Luck, RG3 or Romo, and a TE like Olsen.

I just can't get on board with any RB in round two from the 6th slot unless Forte is available. I much prefer to to grab a Dez, Julio type WR from my mocks and studies. Round three I am more inclined to appreciate the RB I get there.

I like Forte as you do, but Im easily picking Ridley or SJax there over a WR. I think both of them are much more likely for RB1 level season, with consistency, then the RBs going round 3 - MJD, Murray, Gore, Bush, DMC, Wilson, Sproles. While I do like a few of those guys, I dont see any ending up as RB1's, and you can still pick a WR in the 3rd that has great potential to finish as a WR1.

You seem pretty dialed in here. How would your stance change if your league was a .5 ppr? I assume you'd drop Ridley down a few pegs. Does that make you more inclined to draft a WR in round two? Which RB's would you be targeting in rd 2?

 

[Sweetness_34]

a bit off topic but..... for those of you that are adamant about going RB/RB to start, is having a chance at calvin #9 in a ppr just too much to pass up? I generally like to secure my RB's in the first 2 rounds, but may have to bite the bullet and go wr if he is there. The top 8 picks would all be rb.

If Calvin is there at #9 in a PPR then you should gracefully stop playing in a league with those kids. Stealing money is not cool

 

[Kenny Powers]

I think the point about where there are pockets of value are important.

I think the in the early to mid first and second rounds the value is RB.

Rounds 3-5 there is huge value in WR.

Round 6-7 there is huge value in QB and to a lesser extent TE.

7-8 there is more value at WR.

Then in rounds 9-10 there is a ton of value at RB again. Franklin, B Pierce, Bradshaw, Woodhead.

From the 6 spot I am completely compelled to draft RB/RB because there ar not RBs I like in terms of value until round 9 and so much value at every other key position I am much better off loading up on RB and while people at scrambling for RBBC backs that will underperform I will be getting Cruz, A Brown, J Nelson, a QB like Luck, RG3 or Romo, and a TE like Olsen.

I just can't get on board with any RB in round two from the 6th slot unless Forte is available. I much prefer to to grab a Dez, Julio type WR from my mocks and studies. Round three I am more inclined to appreciate the RB I get there.

I like Forte as you do, but Im easily picking Ridley or SJax there over a WR. I think both of them are much more likely for RB1 level season, with consistency, then the RBs going round 3 - MJD, Murray, Gore, Bush, DMC, Wilson, Sproles. While I do like a few of those guys, I dont see any ending up as RB1's, and you can still pick a WR in the 3rd that has great potential to finish as a WR1.

You seem pretty dialed in here. How would your stance change if your league was a .5 ppr? I assume you'd drop Ridley down a few pegs. Does that make you more inclined to draft a WR in round two? Which RB's would you be targeting in rd 2?

I dont play PPR so that makes it more difficult to say, and I havent even done my projections for this year yet. If you can get Forte mid-2nd to me thats a no-brainer as a lot of his ceiling depends on PPR. Obviously Ridley drops in that scenario, but he would be very safe in the 3rd round. I think SJax is the least volatile in either scoring system. He's in a great offense, no threat for carries, and is good catching out of the backfield.

Going by PPR, my 3 favorite RBs with ADPs in the 3rd, Bush, Sproles, Gore all probably are more valuable in PPR than standard too. If you play PPR, I dont think its a bad idea to go RB/WR/RB

 

[hotboyz]

I don't understand why some of you insist on playing fantasy football. Why not just play fantasy running back. You set up your leagues to make every other position irrelevant.

RB-RB-RB blah blah it doesn't matter after that. I mean, what on earth are you guys playing when LeVeon Bell is ranked higher than Tom Brady? Do you ever stop and think to yourselves, "My god, this is idiotic."?

It is not idiotic when you know you can get a QB drafted after 11 are gone and still have not much difference in production per game. While the RB in that round is a huge risk

You sound like you are following the herd you cannot base this season on last season if you can draft one of the top 3 QB WILL HAVE A TREMENDOUS ADVANTAGE OVER OWNER WITH THE #12 Qb!! Everybody keeps following the herd the biggest way to be successful is to be willing to think different!! If every owner is going into draft thinking the same (go RB wait on QB) what separates u from the pack besides pure luck of the draw or draft position ?

 

[hauser42]

I don't understand why some of you insist on playing fantasy football. Why not just play fantasy running back. You set up your leagues to make every other position irrelevant.

RB-RB-RB blah blah it doesn't matter after that. I mean, what on earth are you guys playing when LeVeon Bell is ranked higher than Tom Brady? Do you ever stop and think to yourselves, "My god, this is idiotic."?

It is not idiotic when you know you can get a QB drafted after 11 are gone and still have not much difference in production per game. While the RB in that round is a huge risk

You sound like you are following the herd you cannot base this season on last season if you can draft one of the top 3 QB WILL HAVE A TREMENDOUS ADVANTAGE OVER OWNER WITH THE #12 Qb!! Everybody keeps following the herd the biggest way to be successful is to be willing to think different!! If every owner is going into draft thinking the same (go RB wait on QB) what separates u from the pack besides pure luck of the draw or draft position ?

 

[hauser42]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

 

[pantherclub]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

outstanding post

I call it chasing or going against the grain. If you go wr-wr-qb, or qb-wr-wr in the first 3 then you have the rest of the rounds to figure out your running backs because everyone else will be trying to figure out what to do at wr and qb. Tons and tons of value at running back later in the draft. If you pick a rb in the first and they bust (which is an extreme probability) then your season just got a lot harder. Statistically the top qb and wr dont bust. So why even risk it?

 

[Pumpnick]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

outstanding post

I call it chasing or going against the grain. If you go wr-wr-qb, or qb-wr-wr in the first 3 then you have the rest of the rounds to figure out your running backs because everyone else will be trying to figure out what to do at wr and qb. Tons and tons of value at running back later in the draft. If you pick a rb in the first and they bust (which is an extreme probability) then your season just got a lot harder. Statistically the top qb and wr dont bust. So why even risk it?

this all depends on starting line up requirements. In 2 flex leagues the rb's never really stop being selected and you may end up with a ball, bradshaw, mendenhall type rb1. 29 of the first 36 picks could be rb.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

outstanding post

I call it chasing or going against the grain. If you go wr-wr-qb, or qb-wr-wr in the first 3 then you have the rest of the rounds to figure out your running backs because everyone else will be trying to figure out what to do at wr and qb. Tons and tons of value at running back later in the draft. If you pick a rb in the first and they bust (which is an extreme probability) then your season just got a lot harder. Statistically the top qb and wr dont bust. So why even risk it?

this all depends on starting line up requirements. In 2 flex leagues the rb's never really stop being selected and you may end up with a ball, bradshaw, mendenhall type rb1. 29 of the first 36 picks could be rb.

I have NEVER seen 29 of the first 36 picks be RBs and I have played fantasy football for 20 years. In 2 flex situtations its a Flex spot.... you can start WRs.

 

[Pumpnick]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

outstanding post

I call it chasing or going against the grain. If you go wr-wr-qb, or qb-wr-wr in the first 3 then you have the rest of the rounds to figure out your running backs because everyone else will be trying to figure out what to do at wr and qb. Tons and tons of value at running back later in the draft. If you pick a rb in the first and they bust (which is an extreme probability) then your season just got a lot harder. Statistically the top qb and wr dont bust. So why even risk it?

this all depends on starting line up requirements. In 2 flex leagues the rb's never really stop being selected and you may end up with a ball, bradshaw, mendenhall type rb1. 29 of the first 36 picks could be rb.

I have NEVER seen 29 of the first 36 picks be RBs and I have played fantasy football for 20 years. In 2 flex situtations its a Flex spot.... you can start WRs.

I've seen 26 this year, so I figure it could be conceivable (although unlikely) 29 are selected.

 

[hauser42]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

outstanding postI call it chasing or going against the grain. If you go wr-wr-qb, or qb-wr-wr in the first 3 then you have the rest of the rounds to figure out your running backs because everyone else will be trying to figure out what to do at wr and qb. Tons and tons of value at running back later in the draft. If you pick a rb in the first and they bust (which is an extreme probability) then your season just got a lot harder. Statistically the top qb and wr dont bust. So why even risk it?

this all depends on starting line up requirements. In 2 flex leagues the rb's never really stop being selected and you may end up with a ball, bradshaw, mendenhall type rb1. 29 of the first 36 picks could be rb.

I have NEVER seen 29 of the first 36 picks be RBs and I have played fantasy football for 20 years. In 2 flex situtations its a Flex spot.... you can start WRs.

I've seen 26 this year, so I figure it could be conceivable (although unlikely) 29 are selected.

Let's go with the 26 RBs in first 3 rounds. I have 10th pick and I can have Megatron I take him. Likley Forte and Ridley there maybe McCoy. Bryant, Julio and Green all out there also. The nuts on the table pick is Graham at TE. Nuts on the table is what guys in our league when some is not afraid to go out of the norm picking. Now when third round comes up choice at RB will be very slim. Couple of the following guys will be there Rodgers Brees Brady Peyton Cam Ryan and couple of the wideouts I mentioned. Those are top value not the 24th running back. Even in flex scenario you can hammer the wideouts to play the flex spots. At running back you will have to look at goalline guys, backups to injury prone number ones and work the waiver wire for backs. But you will be set at your other spots unless injuries hit.

I have played 23 years and I love seeing guys chase a position it rarley works. Owners still chase kickers from time to time why chase the 24th RB when a top 5 WR is on the board?

 

[Kenny Powers]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

outstanding post

I call it chasing or going against the grain. If you go wr-wr-qb, or qb-wr-wr in the first 3 then you have the rest of the rounds to figure out your running backs because everyone else will be trying to figure out what to do at wr and qb. Tons and tons of value at running back later in the draft. If you pick a rb in the first and they bust (which is an extreme probability) then your season just got a lot harder. Statistically the top qb and wr dont bust. So why even risk it?

GL finding your RB1 and RB2 with the guys youll have available in the 4th round on

 

[stbugs]

And in regards to the posts above about going RB/RB/RB, first of all, it totally depends on who you pick. You guys picked busts, so yeah, its not going to work when that happens. Also, I dont think anyone is condoning going RB in the first 3 rounds. BPA is one thing, but you are spreading yourself too thin to start a draft. Not to mention when looking at this year, if you go RB in the first 2 rounds, I dont think you would want/be worried about taking the guys that are going in the 3rd. Im probably going to be going RB/RB more often than not this year based on ADP and positional depth at QB and WR. My leagues are start 2 RB/2 WR/2 flexes though so RBs are quite valuable. Lineups and roster size are also obviously big on how many RBs you should/need to take early.

League rules obviously have a huge impact. That said, there are lots of posts about going RB/RB/RB. We all did pick busts, but I think that happens because of that strategy. Going that method to me means you aren't going BPA and if you aren't doing that I would bet statistics would bear it out that the bust rate is higher.

Barring injury, there is no way anyone could convince me that barring injury Graham won't be top 2, Rodgers, Brees and maybe Manning won't be top 5 and Bryant, Marshall, Jones, Thomas and Green won't be top 10. The RBs after the top tier taken around the same as these guys are not guys that you can say barring injury will be top 15. The top tier RBs are solid in my mind, but I think this year, those guys are all top 10 picks with maybe Calvin and possibly Rodgers/Brees before pick 12. I love the turn in the one league where I know my draft slot already because I know 2 stud WRs will be there for the picking to go with my kept RBs.

I guess everyone drafts differently, but if I go RB/RB or RB/RB/RB its because that is the BPA, or there is a big dropoff/tier difference if I dont take a RB with a certain pick. Do people really plan on going RB/RB regardless of how the draft goes and take RBs for the hell of it?! I guess the people who lose might.

2nd paragraph, I see what youre saying, but even based on the players you mention I dont think Dez, Julio, or Demaryius are Top 10 locks barring injury. They may be amongst the most likely to finish Top 10 besides Megatron, but theyre hardly locks IMO each for different reasons. I said how I feel about the RBs going first 2 rounds in my last post so I wont rehash that, but youre drafting strategy for a keeper league is different when you already have a RB1 (Morris) and RB2 (Sproles) on your roster. It isnt hard to love going WR/WR when thats the case.

Yeah, ignore my keepers, that makes it easier. That said, I think we just disagree. I think Dez, Julio and Demaryius are locks for top 10 barring injury and disagree that there are 25 WRs with the potential to be top 10 versus only 15 RBs for top 10.

Let's look at WRs. According to FBG rankings, there were 3 WRs that were top 10 in 2011 and 2012. At first glance, that seems like a lot of turnover, but of the 7 top 10 in 2011 that weren't top 10 in 2012, we had Harvin who was top 5 when he got hurt and missed almost half the season, Nelson, who finished 31st, but missed 4 games, prorated he finishes 17, Welker and Cruz, who finished 12 and 13, just out of the top 10, Smith who finished 19th, Wallace who finished 24th, and Fitz who finished 42nd. So, from 2011 to 2012, 1 of the 7 finishes top 10 barring injury, 2 of the 7 were just out of the top 10, 2 of the 7 were still top 20, 1 of the 7 was still a WR2 and 1 of the 7 completely fell off the face of the earth.

Looking at the top 10 in 2012, why weren't they top 10 in 2011? Well Green, DT and Jones were rookies in 2011, but all 1st round picks and they lived up to their potential. AJ and Jones were actually 14 and 17 in 2011. Marshall finished 13th even with crappy QBs. Bryant was #19. Decker was a rookie as well. Andre Johnson was top 10 in 4 of the last 5 seasons, only missing 2011 because he missed 9 games. The top 10 in 2012 looks real good in terms of consistency/meeting expectations.

Obviously there is a numbers game and with Calvin and only 10 slots, it is hard to "guarantee" 5 more WRs being in the top 10, but as you can see, barring injury, the top WRs are consistent and when you figure out who is a real stud, they are pretty solid locks at staying at the top barring injury. Look at all the real top WRs, i.e. not the Wallaces/Nelsons, in NFL history and they are usually extremely consistent. I don't think Dez, Julio and Thomas would be confused with Nelson/Wallace talent wise, they are stud talents, have the same QBs as last year and I have no doubt in my mind they are locks for the top 10, barring injury.

I figured I didnt need to explain why I though Dez, Demaryius, and Julio might not end up as Top 10 WR's, but...

Dez had a breakout year last year, no doubt. He is still on a team with Witten and Austin though. Both those guys get a lot of targets. Witten only had 3 TDs last year despite having the most receptions of his career. Wouldnt be surprising if he got a few more TDs at Dez's expense. Austin I think is really underrated this year, he finished as almost a WR2 last year and is barely being drafted as a WR3. Really the biggest X factor is Murray who was hurt most of last yr, and was certainly out of the lineup when Dez busted out. If Murray stays healthy this year, Dez wont be doing what he did 2nd half last season.

Demaryius has great talent, has a great QB albeit on the downside, but the team also signed Welker and drafted Ball. While I think getting Welker dips Decker's stats more than DT, there's no way you can say adding Welker helps DT's overall numbers or targets. This team is playoff made this year while it wasnt at the start of last year. I can see Fox leaning on the run game more.

I love Julio, took him in the 2nd in a couple drafts last year even, but he still only finished WR9 last year. Thats great, but youre calling him a top 10 lock this year when he barely finished that high in last year. Roddy White is still there and I doubt he falls off this year. More importantly, SJax is there after Turner looked like crap last year. SJax is going to take some points from those WRs this year that Turner couldnt last year. Also, Matt Ryan had a career year last year. While I dont expect him to drop off much, I dont think he has a better year either.

I like all 3 of these guys talent wise, but each has a reason to fall off a bit this year in regards to their stats.

And the fact that in your keeper league you already have your top 2 RBs absolutely makes a difference draft wise and why your plan is going WR/WR

Yeah, my keepers do make it easy and also mess up my discussion points because it also means that RBs that I would select (Richardson, McCoy, etc.) will not be there when I pick, hence my thoughts that unless the draft goes really weird in the 1st, I will probably go WR-WR. I still think that I would take Dez, Jones and Demaryius before taking guys like McFadden, CJ1K, Bush, MJD, etc. in a start 2RB/3WR league.

I understand your thoughts on the 3 above and again "locks" for the top 10 is meaning that they will finish top 10 or right at it (i.e. like Welker and Cruz last year who were 7 points away from the top 10). That said, I owned Dez in 2010/2011 and didn't get him last year, so I watched him a bunch and when he was healthy (2011 he got hurt in the Jets game after owning Revis and wasn't "good" all year). What I did see was that he was a man among boys when he wanted to be and 2012 wasn't a surprise to me. He did exceed my expectations, but he is miles ahead of Austin and while Witten is a great possession guy, I have seen Dez make some amazing snatches in the red zone and have no doubt he will be Romo's guy fantasy wise. DT and Jones are just getting better and again, in my eyes they have the it factor that separates them from the other potential top 10 guys. I don't worry about Roddy White and Welker holding them back. I don't see anything getting worse for these three and barring injury, I would be shocked to not see them in the top 10.

 

[stbugs]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

outstanding postI call it chasing or going against the grain. If you go wr-wr-qb, or qb-wr-wr in the first 3 then you have the rest of the rounds to figure out your running backs because everyone else will be trying to figure out what to do at wr and qb. Tons and tons of value at running back later in the draft. If you pick a rb in the first and they bust (which is an extreme probability) then your season just got a lot harder. Statistically the top qb and wr dont bust. So why even risk it?

this all depends on starting line up requirements. In 2 flex leagues the rb's never really stop being selected and you may end up with a ball, bradshaw, mendenhall type rb1. 29 of the first 36 picks could be rb.

I have NEVER seen 29 of the first 36 picks be RBs and I have played fantasy football for 20 years. In 2 flex situtations its a Flex spot.... you can start WRs.

I've seen 26 this year, so I figure it could be conceivable (although unlikely) 29 are selected.

Let's go with the 26 RBs in first 3 rounds. I have 10th pick and I can have Megatron I take him. Likley Forte and Ridley there maybe McCoy. Bryant, Julio and Green all out there also. The nuts on the table pick is Graham at TE. Nuts on the table is what guys in our league when some is not afraid to go out of the norm picking.Now when third round comes up choice at RB will be very slim. Couple of the following guys will be there Rodgers Brees Brady Peyton Cam Ryan and couple of the wideouts I mentioned. Those are top value not the 24th running back. Even in flex scenario you can hammer the wideouts to play the flex spots. At running back you will have to look at goalline guys, backups to injury prone number ones and work the waiver wire for backs. But you will be set at your other spots unless injuries hit.

I have played 23 years and I love seeing guys chase a position it rarley works. Owners still chase kickers from time to time why chase the 24th RB when a top 5 WR is on the board?

Agree completely. Grabbing Bradshaw, Mendenhall, Lacy, etc. when QB1s like Brady and Ryan or WR1s like Thomas, Jones and AJ are available is chasing the RB run at the end of the run. I like to start runs, not finish them. The comment above about waiting until the first 11 QBs are gone ignores the reality that guys like Brees and Rodgers, according to my VBD spreadsheet, are going to outscore QB12 by as many points as ADP is going to outscore RB15. That same difference is 20 points more than the difference between RB8 (end of round 1 RB) and RB24. Sometimes people don't realize that the top QBs can outscore QB12 by more than the top RB can outscore RB12 and the bottom of the RB1s will outscore the worst RB2s.

 

[Run It Up]

Exactly. The way Bell is wowing in TC so far makes me think he's going to be a solid RB people using this strategy can count on, but 3.12 is a full round ahead of his ADP. Plus 2 of my 3 leagues are PIT homer leagues so I can't plan on him being around at any point past the mid-3rd as its a toss up when he will get picked.

After Calvin, there isnt much difference in the next WRs off the board, and while I agree the next handful of WRs after him are the best bets to finish that high for a few reasons (talent, age, situation namely), the margin between them and the next dozen of WRs is not much. I am much more comfortable getting 2 of those WRs (Cruz, Jordy, VJax are 3 of my favorites in that range) after going RB/RB early, then the alternative like the guys you mention in your post at RB had I started off WR/WR. Honestly besides Bell I wouldnt feel good if I had any of them as my RB2. The production from them will likely be rather inconsistent, if not hard to determine their floor, where as the WRs you can get in that same range are really good players.

And at McSpiffy being "pushed" into taking McCoy at the end of the 1st. Clearly some blinders are on here.

This is exactly how I feel.

 

[pantherclub]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

outstanding post

I call it chasing or going against the grain. If you go wr-wr-qb, or qb-wr-wr in the first 3 then you have the rest of the rounds to figure out your running backs because everyone else will be trying to figure out what to do at wr and qb. Tons and tons of value at running back later in the draft. If you pick a rb in the first and they bust (which is an extreme probability) then your season just got a lot harder. Statistically the top qb and wr dont bust. So why even risk it?

GL finding your RB1 and RB2 with the guys youll have available in the 4th round on

Last year from the 4rth and on you could have had, Spiller, Bradshaw (your boy), Spoles, Martin, BJE, Mcgahee, Ridley, Greene etc. Meanwhile 6 of the top 10 rb's were total flameouts and busts and the next 4 past the top 10 Forte, Dmac, Murray and Matthews were pretty bad. Picking a RB at the top is a high percentage bust rate. I could post the wideouts picked that high and their success rate but I think you get he picture.

When the rest of the teams are filling out their wr's and qb's from round 4 on very few of them are locking in more running backs allowing teams like me to load up on those guys knowing one, two and maybe 3 will hit. This doesnt even factor in the f/a you can pick up Morris, Brown, Brown etc to plug and play when one of those top picks go down with injury.

Running backs going 1,2 rounds is a prehistoric way to play IMO

 

[Run It Up]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

outstanding post

I call it chasing or going against the grain. If you go wr-wr-qb, or qb-wr-wr in the first 3 then you have the rest of the rounds to figure out your running backs because everyone else will be trying to figure out what to do at wr and qb. Tons and tons of value at running back later in the draft. If you pick a rb in the first and they bust (which is an extreme probability) then your season just got a lot harder. Statistically the top qb and wr dont bust. So why even risk it?

GL finding your RB1 and RB2 with the guys youll have available in the 4th round on

Last year from the 4rth and on you could have had, Spiller, Bradshaw (your boy), Spoles, Martin, BJE, Mcgahee, Ridley, Greene etc. Meanwhile 6 of the top 10 rb's were total flameouts and busts and the next 4 past the top 10 Forte, Dmac, Murray and Matthews were pretty bad. Picking a RB at the top is a high percentage bust rate. I could post the wideouts picked that high and their success rate but I think you get he picture.

When the rest of the teams are filling out their wr's and qb's from round 4 on very few of them are locking in more running backs allowing teams like me to load up on those guys knowing one, two and maybe 3 will hit. This doesnt even factor in the f/a you can pick up Morris, Brown, Brown etc to plug and play when one of those top picks go down with injury.

Running backs going 1,2 rounds is a prehistoric way to play IMO

Thats not true at all, the middling teams are gonna be snatching up all the value they can - including RBs.

 

[chickensoup]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

outstanding postI call it chasing or going against the grain. If you go wr-wr-qb, or qb-wr-wr in the first 3 then you have the rest of the rounds to figure out your running backs because everyone else will be trying to figure out what to do at wr and qb. Tons and tons of value at running back later in the draft. If you pick a rb in the first and they bust (which is an extreme probability) then your season just got a lot harder. Statistically the top qb and wr dont bust. So why even risk it?

this all depends on starting line up requirements. In 2 flex leagues the rb's never really stop being selected and you may end up with a ball, bradshaw, mendenhall type rb1. 29 of the first 36 picks could be rb.

I have NEVER seen 29 of the first 36 picks be RBs and I have played fantasy football for 20 years. In 2 flex situtations its a Flex spot.... you can start WRs.

I've seen 26 this year, so I figure it could be conceivable (although unlikely) 29 are selected.

Let's go with the 26 RBs in first 3 rounds. I have 10th pick and I can have Megatron I take him. Likley Forte and Ridley there maybe McCoy. Bryant, Julio and Green all out there also. The nuts on the table pick is Graham at TE. Nuts on the table is what guys in our league when some is not afraid to go out of the norm picking. Now when third round comes up choice at RB will be very slim. Couple of the following guys will be there Rodgers Brees Brady Peyton Cam Ryan and couple of the wideouts I mentioned. Those are top value not the 24th running back. Even in flex scenario you can hammer the wideouts to play the flex spots. At running back you will have to look at goalline guys, backups to injury prone number ones and work the waiver wire for backs. But you will be set at your other spots unless injuries hit.

I have played 23 years and I love seeing guys chase a position it rarley works. Owners still chase kickers from time to time why chase the 24th RB when a top 5 WR is on the board?

Again, most people who suggest RB early don't say always go RB/RB, but instead that its probably a good idea to get one in the first 2 rounds because by the time the third comes knocking your choices are underwhelming this year. RB/WR, RB/QB, RB/Graham or RB/RB by the end of round 2 are all viable.

The only possible way I could see it working out like folks think is if you end the first 2 rounds with something like Mega and Graham or Mega and Brees. Two guys semi likely to put up so many way more points than the rest at their position that the points work themselves out. But can people realistically say that Bush or Bell are going to not be too much of a downgrade from a Forte or SJax that its fine to get someone like Julio or Marshall instead?

It's not enough that a Julio Jones ends up WR 4. He has to beat a guy in the third round (let's say Cobb) by more than Let's say Forte beats Bush or Bell. Which is more likely to actually happen? My money will pretty much always be on Forte. Plus it's at a premium position with a guy who will at worst get the majority of non- goal line work and catches a lot of passes.

Keep in mind the above is an example. I'm not saying that's who you will get at a certain position in the draft. I'm saying the delta between RB taken in the second round and third round is likely higher than WR taken in the second vs third.

 

[pantherclub]

If you are taking a flier in the middle rounds on someone like BGE, Green or a rookie before you fill out your wr 1 and 2 spots then God bless you.

 

[Run It Up]

If you are taking a flier in the middle rounds on someone like BGE, Green or a rookie before you fill out your wr 1 and 2 spots then God bless you.

How do you feel about Colston, Nicks, Antonio Brown, Welker, Garcon, Bowe and Wallace? Cause they are going from early 5th to mid 6th.

There is plenty of room for the middling teams to take a slipped RB to pad their RB core furhter and still get what I consider a very solid WR2.

 

[pantherclub]

If you are taking a flier in the middle rounds on someone like BGE, Green or a rookie before you fill out your wr 1 and 2 spots then God bless you.

How do you feel about Colston, Nicks, Antonio Brown, Welker, Garcon, Bowe and Wallace? Cause they are going from early 5th to mid 6th.

There is plenty of room for the middling teams to take a slipped RB to pad their RB core furhter and still get what I consider a very solid WR2.

I like them all as my wr2 or 3.

 

[We Tigers]

Let's go with the 26 RBs in first 3 rounds. I have 10th pick and I can have Megatron I take him. Likley Forte and Ridley there maybe McCoy. Bryant, Julio and Green all out there also. The nuts on the table pick is Graham at TE. Nuts on the table is what guys in our league when some is not afraid to go out of the norm picking.

Now when third round comes up choice at RB will be very slim. Couple of the following guys will be there Rodgers Brees Brady Peyton Cam Ryan and couple of the wideouts I mentioned. Those are top value not the 24th running back. Even in flex scenario you can hammer the wideouts to play the flex spots. At running back you will have to look at goalline guys, backups to injury prone number ones and work the waiver wire for backs. But you will be set at your other spots unless injuries hit.

I have played 23 years and I love seeing guys chase a position it rarley works. Owners still chase kickers from time to time why chase the 24th RB when a top 5 WR is on the board?

Agree completely. Grabbing Bradshaw, Mendenhall, Lacy, etc. when QB1s like Brady and Ryan or WR1s like Thomas, Jones and AJ are available is chasing the RB run at the end of the run. I like to start runs, not finish them. The comment above about waiting until the first 11 QBs are gone ignores the reality that guys like Brees and Rodgers, according to my VBD spreadsheet, are going to outscore QB12 by as many points as ADP is going to outscore RB15. That same difference is 20 points more than the difference between RB8 (end of round 1 RB) and RB24. Sometimes people don't realize that the top QBs can outscore QB12 by more than the top RB can outscore RB12 and the bottom of the RB1s will outscore the worst RB2s.

I think your ADP comparisons are a bit off. Bradshaw, Mendenhall, Lacy, etc. are 5th-6th round RBs. Brady and Ryan are fair comps as they have 5th round ADPs, but Thomas, Jones, and AJ are 2nd and 3rd rounders by all ADP measures I can find. So, your actual WR options are more like Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Torrey Smith, who few consider elite options.

Additionally, QB1 and QB2 may outscore QB12 by as much as RB1 outscores RB15, but they're priced accordingly, as 2nd round investments. QB3, 4, 5, 6, etc. aren't likely to have as great a VBD lead over QB12, so to get that big advantage, you need to give up a top 5 receiver or a top 15 RB. To connect that to your first point, sure, take Rodgers in round 2, but then you just might be picking from Bradshaw, Mendenhall, and Lacy after all once you get to the 5th and 6th since you no longer have a need for Brady or Ryan. I'd rather have Chris Johnson or Reggie Bush and then take Ryan, as you recommend.

You always have to sacrifice something as you build your team. QB appears to be the easiest position to sacrifice this year; both QB and WR are deep, but you only need to find one QB.

 

[gibfunk]

a bit off topic but..... for those of you that are adamant about going RB/RB to start, is having a chance at calvin #9 in a ppr just too much to pass up? I generally like to secure my RB's in the first 2 rounds, but may have to bite the bullet and go wr if he is there. The top 8 picks would all be rb.

As much as Im on the RB/RB bandwagon, you absolutely pick Megatron at that point and then go from there.

Similar to my dilemma at #5 in a 12 team with 3rd round reversal. I'm almost positive that AP, Foster, Martin, Charles are the first four picks, leaving me with a choice of Spiller, Lynch, Rice. None of which are bad options, but this is where my Calvin mancrush (and significant stats to back it up) creep up in my think tank. If I do take "Tron, that leaves me on the backside of a tier with RBs in the second. SJAX, Forte, Ridley among others. I've always been a two WRS in the first three rounds kinda guy, and heavy on mid round RBs, but I feel that strategy is quite risky this year, unless I get one of the 1-b Tiered RBs in the first. I'm not liking the options at RB past round three this year, hence my dilemma.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Yeah, my keepers do make it easy and also mess up my discussion points because it also means that RBs that I would select (Richardson, McCoy, etc.) will not be there when I pick, hence my thoughts that unless the draft goes really weird in the 1st, I will probably go WR-WR. I still think that I would take Dez, Jones and Demaryius before taking guys like McFadden, CJ1K, Bush, MJD, etc. in a start 2RB/3WR league.

Who wouldnt take those WRs over those RBs?! If youre going WR/WR at the turn, youre passing on McCoy, Forte, or Morris, not those guys.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

outstanding postI call it chasing or going against the grain. If you go wr-wr-qb, or qb-wr-wr in the first 3 then you have the rest of the rounds to figure out your running backs because everyone else will be trying to figure out what to do at wr and qb. Tons and tons of value at running back later in the draft. If you pick a rb in the first and they bust (which is an extreme probability) then your season just got a lot harder. Statistically the top qb and wr dont bust. So why even risk it?

this all depends on starting line up requirements. In 2 flex leagues the rb's never really stop being selected and you may end up with a ball, bradshaw, mendenhall type rb1. 29 of the first 36 picks could be rb.

I have NEVER seen 29 of the first 36 picks be RBs and I have played fantasy football for 20 years. In 2 flex situtations its a Flex spot.... you can start WRs.

I've seen 26 this year, so I figure it could be conceivable (although unlikely) 29 are selected.

Let's go with the 26 RBs in first 3 rounds. I have 10th pick and I can have Megatron I take him. Likley Forte and Ridley there maybe McCoy. Bryant, Julio and Green all out there also. The nuts on the table pick is Graham at TE. Nuts on the table is what guys in our league when some is not afraid to go out of the norm picking.Now when third round comes up choice at RB will be very slim. Couple of the following guys will be there Rodgers Brees Brady Peyton Cam Ryan and couple of the wideouts I mentioned. Those are top value not the 24th running back. Even in flex scenario you can hammer the wideouts to play the flex spots. At running back you will have to look at goalline guys, backups to injury prone number ones and work the waiver wire for backs. But you will be set at your other spots unless injuries hit.

I have played 23 years and I love seeing guys chase a position it rarley works. Owners still chase kickers from time to time why chase the 24th RB when a top 5 WR is on the board?

Agree completely. Grabbing Bradshaw, Mendenhall, Lacy, etc. when QB1s like Brady and Ryan or WR1s like Thomas, Jones and AJ are available is chasing the RB run at the end of the run. I like to start runs, not finish them. The comment above about waiting until the first 11 QBs are gone ignores the reality that guys like Brees and Rodgers, according to my VBD spreadsheet, are going to outscore QB12 by as many points as ADP is going to outscore RB15. That same difference is 20 points more than the difference between RB8 (end of round 1 RB) and RB24. Sometimes people don't realize that the top QBs can outscore QB12 by more than the top RB can outscore RB12 and the bottom of the RB1s will outscore the worst RB2s.

Are you being serious here?! Those RBs are going in the 6th-7th rounds. Brady and Ryan are going in the 4th. Those WRs are going in the 2nd. If youre going to handpick names at least try to make your argument appear plausible. People here saying its smart to go RB/RB is so you arent stuck with those guys as your RB1 or RB2. I dont think anyone who knows what theyre doing is suggesting you take these RB3 type guys in the 3rd or 4th round because you didnt get a RB in the 1st 2 rounds, or because getting guys at the end of the run. If youre going WR/WR or WR/TE in the first place, clearly you arent valuing RB very much if you dont think you need a Top 20 RB, so I doubt youll reach for one in the following rounds.

 

[Pumpnick]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

outstanding postI call it chasing or going against the grain. If you go wr-wr-qb, or qb-wr-wr in the first 3 then you have the rest of the rounds to figure out your running backs because everyone else will be trying to figure out what to do at wr and qb. Tons and tons of value at running back later in the draft. If you pick a rb in the first and they bust (which is an extreme probability) then your season just got a lot harder. Statistically the top qb and wr dont bust. So why even risk it?

this all depends on starting line up requirements. In 2 flex leagues the rb's never really stop being selected and you may end up with a ball, bradshaw, mendenhall type rb1. 29 of the first 36 picks could be rb.

I have NEVER seen 29 of the first 36 picks be RBs and I have played fantasy football for 20 years. In 2 flex situtations its a Flex spot.... you can start WRs.

I've seen 26 this year, so I figure it could be conceivable (although unlikely) 29 are selected.

Let's go with the 26 RBs in first 3 rounds. I have 10th pick and I can have Megatron I take him. Likley Forte and Ridley there maybe McCoy. Bryant, Julio and Green all out there also. The nuts on the table pick is Graham at TE. Nuts on the table is what guys in our league when some is not afraid to go out of the norm picking.Now when third round comes up choice at RB will be very slim. Couple of the following guys will be there Rodgers Brees Brady Peyton Cam Ryan and couple of the wideouts I mentioned. Those are top value not the 24th running back. Even in flex scenario you can hammer the wideouts to play the flex spots. At running back you will have to look at goalline guys, backups to injury prone number ones and work the waiver wire for backs. But you will be set at your other spots unless injuries hit.

I have played 23 years and I love seeing guys chase a position it rarley works. Owners still chase kickers from time to time why chase the 24th RB when a top 5 WR is on the board?

Agree completely. Grabbing Bradshaw, Mendenhall, Lacy, etc. when QB1s like Brady and Ryan or WR1s like Thomas, Jones and AJ are available is chasing the RB run at the end of the run. I like to start runs, not finish them. The comment above about waiting until the first 11 QBs are gone ignores the reality that guys like Brees and Rodgers, according to my VBD spreadsheet, are going to outscore QB12 by as many points as ADP is going to outscore RB15. That same difference is 20 points more than the difference between RB8 (end of round 1 RB) and RB24. Sometimes people don't realize that the top QBs can outscore QB12 by more than the top RB can outscore RB12 and the bottom of the RB1s will outscore the worst RB2s.

Are you being serious here?! Those RBs are going in the 6th-7th rounds. Brady and Ryan are going in the 4th. Those WRs are going in the 2nd. If youre going to handpick names at least try to make your argument appear plausible. People here saying its smart to go RB/RB is so you arent stuck with those guys as your RB1 or RB2. I dont think anyone who knows what theyre doing is suggesting you take these RB3 type guys in the 3rd or 4th round because you didnt get a RB in the 1st 2 rounds, or because getting guys at the end of the run. If youre going WR/WR or WR/TE in the first place, clearly you arent valuing RB very much if you dont think you need a Top 20 RB, so I doubt youll reach for one in the following rounds.

My thing is if you start off WR/TE or WR/WR and lots of rbs are taken in the first 3 rounds, you probably aren't taking a rb at the 3/4 turn because the value there is even worse than it was in rounds 1/2. Lets say 3.12 comes up and you have to choose from brees, rodgers, vjax, cobb, or bradshaw, mendenhall. So lets say you go brees/cobb. At 5.12 do you think go Mendenhall/lacy as your rb1 and 2 or maybe you wait even longer. I understand the reasoning in going wr/wr or wr/te in the first 2 rounds but in doing so, you could face having someone like lacy or mendenhall as your rb1.

 

[Kenny Powers]

GL finding your RB1 and RB2 with the guys youll have available in the 4th round on

Last year from the 4th and on you could have had, Spiller, Bradshaw (your boy), Spoles, Martin, BJE, Mcgahee, Ridley, Greene etc. Meanwhile 6 of the top 10 rb's were total flameouts and busts and the next 4 past the top 10 Forte, Dmac, Murray and Matthews were pretty bad. Picking a RB at the top is a high percentage bust rate. I could post the wideouts picked that high and their success rate but I think you get he picture.

When the rest of the teams are filling out their wr's and qb's from round 4 on very few of them are locking in more running backs allowing teams like me to load up on those guys knowing one, two and maybe 3 will hit. This doesnt even factor in the f/a you can pick up Morris, Brown, Brown etc to plug and play when one of those top picks go down with injury.

Running backs going 1,2 rounds is a prehistoric way to play IMO

Looking at this in hindsight is a lot easier to make this argument. In the past, Ive found it quite difficult to pick the mid-late round RBs that you can count on to be your RB2, or better. Most of the time you have to get lucky and have a talented backup who becomes the starter due to injury. Last year I actually had Martin, McGahee, and Ridley each on at least 2 of my 3 teams, Spiller on 1, because I believed in their talent and situation (Spiller to a lesser degree in that regard) and thought they were great values.

That was last year though, this is this year. Many more RBs are going in the first 2 rounds this year, making it difficult to get a RB you can count on in even the 3rd round. Also, I dont see near as much talent and value in the mid-round RBs this year as I did last year. The only RBs I see going after the 4th round with a bettor's shot at ending up RB2's are Ivory, Bradshaw (I'll change my tune on him in a few weeks if he still is on PUP), and Ingram. Anyone else I think absolutely needs an injury to the guy ahead of them, or their RBBC counterpart.

Oh, and if you want to use the argument look at the RBs I couldve got in the 4th round or later last year, you couldve got Dez, Demaryius, VJax, Andre, Decker, Colston, Cobb, Wayne, Crabtree, and more WRs who finished as WR2's or better in the 4th round or later last year. It works both ways, RBs are just more scarce.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Messed up and deleted mt reply somehow.

Following the rest of owners is called "chasing" and when you chase more times than not you miss value picks. Why would you chase a 2nd RB when you can have advantages other places on your team. If all but 2 or 3 owners have 2 RBs come end of round when you pick why do the same. Those owners also have to get WRs on their roster and will be doing next couple rounds. You only help them by leaving more talent out their to pick up. Let them decide on the middle group of WRs while you pick the RBs that are left a round or too later. If they take a 3RB before they have 2 WR let them ruin their team. This based of 1 2 3 1 1 1 format for lineups.

outstanding postI call it chasing or going against the grain. If you go wr-wr-qb, or qb-wr-wr in the first 3 then you have the rest of the rounds to figure out your running backs because everyone else will be trying to figure out what to do at wr and qb. Tons and tons of value at running back later in the draft. If you pick a rb in the first and they bust (which is an extreme probability) then your season just got a lot harder. Statistically the top qb and wr dont bust. So why even risk it?

this all depends on starting line up requirements. In 2 flex leagues the rb's never really stop being selected and you may end up with a ball, bradshaw, mendenhall type rb1. 29 of the first 36 picks could be rb.

I have NEVER seen 29 of the first 36 picks be RBs and I have played fantasy football for 20 years. In 2 flex situtations its a Flex spot.... you can start WRs.

I've seen 26 this year, so I figure it could be conceivable (although unlikely) 29 are selected.

Let's go with the 26 RBs in first 3 rounds. I have 10th pick and I can have Megatron I take him. Likley Forte and Ridley there maybe McCoy. Bryant, Julio and Green all out there also. The nuts on the table pick is Graham at TE. Nuts on the table is what guys in our league when some is not afraid to go out of the norm picking.Now when third round comes up choice at RB will be very slim. Couple of the following guys will be there Rodgers Brees Brady Peyton Cam Ryan and couple of the wideouts I mentioned. Those are top value not the 24th running back. Even in flex scenario you can hammer the wideouts to play the flex spots. At running back you will have to look at goalline guys, backups to injury prone number ones and work the waiver wire for backs. But you will be set at your other spots unless injuries hit.

I have played 23 years and I love seeing guys chase a position it rarley works. Owners still chase kickers from time to time why chase the 24th RB when a top 5 WR is on the board?

Again, most people who suggest RB early don't say always go RB/RB, but instead that its probably a good idea to get one in the first 2 rounds because by the time the third comes knocking your choices are underwhelming this year. RB/WR, RB/QB, RB/Graham or RB/RB by the end of round 2 are all viable.

The only possible way I could see it working out like folks think is if you end the first 2 rounds with something like Mega and Graham or Mega and Brees. Two guys semi likely to put up so many way more points than the rest at their position that the points work themselves out. But can people realistically say that Bush or Bell are going to not be too much of a downgrade from a Forte or SJax that its fine to get someone like Julio or Marshall instead?

It's not enough that a Julio Jones ends up WR 4. He has to beat a guy in the third round (let's say Cobb) by more than Let's say Forte beats Bush or Bell. Which is more likely to actually happen? My money will pretty much always be on Forte. Plus it's at a premium position with a guy who will at worst get the majority of non- goal line work and catches a lot of passes.

Keep in mind the above is an example. I'm not saying that's who you will get at a certain position in the draft. I'm saying the delta between RB taken in the second round and third round is likely higher than WR taken in the second vs third.

 

[Kenny Powers]

If you are taking a flier in the middle rounds on someone like BGE, Green or a rookie before you fill out your wr 1 and 2 spots then God bless you.

How do you feel about Colston, Nicks, Antonio Brown, Welker, Garcon, Bowe and Wallace? Cause they are going from early 5th to mid 6th.

There is plenty of room for the middling teams to take a slipped RB to pad their RB core furhter and still get what I consider a very solid WR2.

I like them all as my wr2 or 3.

And thats what they would be after I go RB/RB in the first 2 rounds and grab a Roddy, Cruz, or VJax in the 3rd while you are sweating which RB you can count on to be your RB2 at that point and for the rest of the draft.

 

[We Tigers]

Agree completely. Grabbing Bradshaw, Mendenhall, Lacy, etc. when QB1s like Brady and Ryan or WR1s like Thomas, Jones and AJ are available is chasing the RB run at the end of the run. I like to start runs, not finish them. The comment above about waiting until the first 11 QBs are gone ignores the reality that guys like Brees and Rodgers, according to my VBD spreadsheet, are going to outscore QB12 by as many points as ADP is going to outscore RB15. That same difference is 20 points more than the difference between RB8 (end of round 1 RB) and RB24. Sometimes people don't realize that the top QBs can outscore QB12 by more than the top RB can outscore RB12 and the bottom of the RB1s will outscore the worst RB2s.

Are you being serious here?! Those RBs are going in the 6th-7th rounds. Brady and Ryan are going in the 4th. Those WRs are going in the 2nd. If youre going to handpick names at least try to make your argument appear plausible. People here saying its smart to go RB/RB is so you arent stuck with those guys as your RB1 or RB2. I dont think anyone who knows what theyre doing is suggesting you take these RB3 type guys in the 3rd or 4th round because you didnt get a RB in the 1st 2 rounds, or because getting guys at the end of the run. If youre going WR/WR or WR/TE in the first place, clearly you arent valuing RB very much if you dont think you need a Top 20 RB, so I doubt youll reach for one in the following rounds.

My thing is if you start off WR/TE or WR/WR and lots of rbs are taken in the first 3 rounds, you probably aren't taking a rb at the 3/4 turn because the value there is even worse than it was in rounds 1/2. Lets say 3.12 comes up and you have to choose from brees, rodgers, vjax, cobb, or bradshaw, mendenhall. So lets say you go brees/cobb. At 5.12 do you think go Mendenhall/lacy as your rb1 and 2 or maybe you wait even longer. I understand the reasoning in going wr/wr or wr/te in the first 2 rounds but in doing so, you could face having someone like lacy or mendenhall as your rb1.

Well, yeah. That's classic upside-down drafting--you spend the first 4-5 rounds on non-RBs, and then hit them hard the rest of the way and hope you get a few. Though don't count on Brees or Rodgers being there at the end of the 3rd, because they're going end of the 2nd or earlier just about everywhere I see. I could get on board with an AJ Green/Rodgers turn, then a couple of Cruz/VJax/Bowe at 3.12/4.01. At 5.12, start hitting RB hard--Lacy/Bernard has a lot of upside. Or just grab one and add Witten, too. I don't think it'd be my approach because I see so much value at WR in rounds 6 and beyond, but it's one way to be unique.

 

[sithrich]

In my FPC league two teams went WR/WR/WR to start their drafts

Here are their WRS and RBs:

Team A:

WRs

C.Johnson-1st

A.Green-2nd

R.Cobb-3rd

W.Wallace-6th

K.Allen-15th

R.woods-16th

RBs

F.Gore-4th

L.Bell-5th

D.Richardson-9th

I.Pead-10th

L.James-13th

D.Robinson-18th

Team B

WRS

D.Bryant-1st

D.Thomas-2nd

A.Johnson-3rd

T.Hilton-7th

DHB-10th

RBS

S.Vareen-5th

R.Mendy-6th

BJE-8th

J.Stewart-9th

K.Moreno-11th

V.Ballard-12th

M.Goodson-20th

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

If you are taking a flier in the middle rounds on someone like BGE, Green or a rookie before you fill out your wr 1 and 2 spots then God bless you.

How do you feel about Colston, Nicks, Antonio Brown, Welker, Garcon, Bowe and Wallace? Cause they are going from early 5th to mid 6th.

There is plenty of room for the middling teams to take a slipped RB to pad their RB core furhter and still get what I consider a very soli

In my FPC league two teams went WR/WR/WR to start their drafts

Here are their WRS and RBs:

Team A:

WRs

C.Johnson-1st

A.Green-2nd

R.Cobb-3rd

W.Wallace-6th

K.Allen-15th

R.woods-16th

RBs

F.Gore-4th

L.Bell-5th

D.Richardson-9th

I.Pead-10th

L.James-13th

D.Robinson-18th

Team B

WRS

D.Bryant-1st

D.Thomas-2nd

A.Johnson-3rd

T.Hilton-7th

DHB-10th

RBS

S.Vareen-5th

R.Mendy-6th

BJE-8th

J.Stewart-9th

K.Moreno-11th

V.Ballard-12th

M.Goodson-20th

I'd feel happy if my team ended up like the first example. A lot of things have to go right though.

 

[chickensoup]

In my FPC league two teams went WR/WR/WR to start their drafts

Here are their WRS and RBs:

Team A:

WRs

C.Johnson-1st

A.Green-2nd

R.Cobb-3rd

W.Wallace-6th

K.Allen-15th

R.woods-16th

RBs

F.Gore-4th

L.Bell-5th

D.Richardson-9th

I.Pead-10th

L.James-13th

D.Robinson-18th

Team B

WRS

D.Bryant-1st

D.Thomas-2nd

A.Johnson-3rd

T.Hilton-7th

DHB-10th

RBS

S.Vareen-5th

R.Mendy-6th

BJE-8th

J.Stewart-9th

K.Moreno-11th

V.Ballard-12th

M.Goodson-20th

Team 1 was gifted Gore. No way he should have made it to the early 4th. Besides him, Bell may or may not be fantasy relevant and who knows if any StL back will get consistant carries or if they are even any good?

Team 2 took a backup then 2 stat compilers who have other options on the team followed by more backups/RBBC guys.

This is why I hate the strategy this year. Too many backs rated too highly to take none. Barring injury (which noone should go into the year with the hope a certain player gets injured) those teams basically have maybe flex players as their RB1. Players like Bell or Lacy, no matter how high you are on them, shouldn't be mistaken for this years Doug Martin which is really the only way this way works consistantly.

 

[cobalt_27]

I don't understand why some of you insist on playing fantasy football. Why not just play fantasy running back. You set up your leagues to make every other position irrelevant.

RB-RB-RB blah blah it doesn't matter after that. I mean, what on earth are you guys playing when LeVeon Bell is ranked higher than Tom Brady? Do you ever stop and think to yourselves, "My god, this is idiotic."?

It is not idiotic when you know you can get a QB drafted after 11 are gone and still have not much difference in production per game. While the RB in that round is a huge risk

Understand completely. What you're describing speaks to the absurdity of the standard league model.