Recievers of 07 = RBs of 06? (1 Viewer)

[Iron Mike Tomczak]

Over the course of this season, Ive began to notice that upper tier recievers are a premium. In my fantasy draft last august, runningbacks were scooped up rapidly, and excellent recievers were available late. This year I have seen many quality #1 backs emerge, and some teams even support 2 good #2 RBs in RBBC situations (NE for example). Recievers of the upper crust seem to be scarce now, with only a few names sticking out as great options in 07, (Driver, CJ, TO, Fitz...namely, a few more slipped my mind). Whereas RBS you have MJD, LT, LJ, Brown, Gore, Addai, Bush, Barber III, and the list goes on.

Has anyone else noticed this trend?

 

[CalBear]

Over the course of this season, Ive began to notice that upper tier recievers are a premium. In my fantasy draft last august, runningbacks were scooped up rapidly, and excellent recievers were available late. This year I have seen many quality #1 backs emerge, and some teams even support 2 good #2 RBs in RBBC situations (NE for example). Recievers of the upper crust seem to be scarce now, with only a few names sticking out as great options in 07, (Driver, CJ, TO, Fitz...namely, a few more slipped my mind). Whereas RBS you have MJD, LT, LJ, Brown, Gore, Addai, Bush, Barber III, and the list goes on.Has anyone else noticed this trend?

I think you have it totally backwards. The #1 WR this year, Harrison, has a VBD of just 86 points. That means his value is even less than, say, Willie Parker who is the #6 RB. There is very little differentiation among receivers this year, and even more than usual among RBs (particularly the #1 RB, who will break all fantasy VBD records).

 

[baronson]

i have, but it is very unlikely driver is a top WR next year. top 10, possibly, but he's def not "top tier." that's crazy talk.

anyway, guys like CJ, Smith, Fitz, Boldin, Housh, Wayne, Harrison, Colston, are all guys you can build a contender around. but i still think you need one go-to RB to take the crown. what you don't want are a group of 3rd tier RBs (guys like Julius, Lamont, etc) to pair with your stud WRs, and the next thing you know, you're trading Javon for Caddy just for the sake of getting a RB in there who gets consistent game action.

point is, i think the trend next year is to take the best players available, irrespective of their position. take a RB first, get that out of the way, and then just fill out your roster with the best guys.

 

[Iron Mike Tomczak]

i agree with both of you guys, LT > all other players. period. and a top 5 RB eats a top 5 WR for lunch just because of the touches - yardage aspect. I do think that more WRs will be drafted in the 1st round than last year. Saying Housh > Driver is getting alil crazy too. I put driver in the top 5-10 this year without a doubt. I agree you need a solid #1 back to contend. My point was that there will be enough #1 RBs to consider taking the top percentile WRs ahead of them.

 

[baronson]

i agree with both of you guys, LT > all other players. period. and a top 5 RB eats a top 5 WR for lunch just because of the touches - yardage aspect. I do think that more WRs will be drafted in the 1st round than last year. Saying Housh > Driver is getting alil crazy too. I put driver in the top 5-10 this year without a doubt. I agree you need a solid #1 back to contend. My point was that there will be enough #1 RBs to consider taking the top percentile WRs ahead of them.

i'm really not trying to take this thread off-target, but on a FP/g basis, Housh is the #2 WR this year. driver is #10.other than that, it seems we agree on quite a bit

 

[Iron Mike Tomczak]

I cant even say his name right.....TJ whos your mama?

 

[ydub]

I cant even say his name right.....TJ whos your mama?

 

[Blue-Kun]

Over the course of this season, Ive began to notice that upper tier recievers are a premium. In my fantasy draft last august, runningbacks were scooped up rapidly, and excellent recievers were available late. This year I have seen many quality #1 backs emerge, and some teams even support 2 good #2 RBs in RBBC situations (NE for example). Recievers of the upper crust seem to be scarce now, with only a few names sticking out as great options in 07, (Driver, CJ, TO, Fitz...namely, a few more slipped my mind). Whereas RBS you have MJD, LT, LJ, Brown, Gore, Addai, Bush, Barber III, and the list goes on.

Has anyone else noticed this trend?

Depends. If you mean in the top 5 range, sure. You needed to draft a high tier receiver in the 2nd or 3rd round for the top 5esque in production this year. However, if you just wanted good quality receivers, 12 of the top 25 could've been drafted in round 5 or later. The difference between the #1 WR and #25 guy this year was about 80 points. The difference between the #2 RB and the #20 guy was 130. Going to #25 was around a 150+ pt difference. This isn't even taking into account the ridiculousness of LT's season for running backs.

Until like the top 15WR are like 80% you could only draft between rounds 1-3, it's not a huge concern.

 

[baronson]

difference between the #8 WR and #25 WR was about 50 pts. the diff between the #8 RB and the #25 RB was about 60 pts. the top tier of RBs def seems to be the difference maker.

of those RBs in the above sample, 9 could have been had after the 3rd round (roughly 50%). of those WRs in the same sample, 13 could have been had after the 3rd round.

so, it lends credence to the theory that RBs are still the safer early-round pick (esp when you consider how the top 7 skew the results), but i think the gap is narrowing. plenty of value can be had in the later rounds at both positions, though this year it seemed a bit more prevalent at WR. point is though, i don't think it's as polarized as it's been in the past.