Redraft Strategies - Waiting on a QB (1 Viewer)

[donkshow]

For me, it's more of if I don't land one of: Brees, Manning, Rodgers.. I'm waiting around.

 

[Dragon1952]

For late pickers, there is a QB who last year joined an elite club with Peyton and Marino as the only QBs ever with more than 20 TDs in each of their first 2 years. Outplayed Stafford half of the time last year (FWTW).Going round 9-ish. With major upgrades to the O during the off season.andy dalton....ssshhh

And he ranked QB 12 and QB 15 in his 2 seasons. I think a lot of people really haven't run the numbers to see JUST HOW MUCH SCORING they are losing by having a QB 10-12 in their lineup compared to some of the big boys. With some guys throwing for 5,000 yards and 40+ TD, having a QB that doesn't hit 4,000 or 30 should be considered a liability.

Worst case 6pt per passing TD, 1 pt per 20yds passing, 5.5-7ppg to the top 3QB, 4 ppg to the 4-7 and 1-2ppg to 8-9 QB. More likely case w/ 4pt per passing TD, 1 pt per 25 yds passing, 0-2.5 ppg to 8-9QB, 1.5-4ppg to 5-7QB and 5.5-6.5ppg to 1-4QB. So unless you get one of the top 3 or 4 QB's probably not enough difference to make or break you considering what you might get at RB or WR in the first 2 rounds if you pass on a top 3-4 QB.

As for Dalton, you're actually going to consider his rookie year at QB15 eh. He went from 3398 yds/20TD to 3669/27TD (plus he ran for 4 TD) so you don't think he can improve again with one more year experience and an upgrade in weapons 331 more yds and 3 more TD's. That's all he needs to improve to get to 4000/30.

You are missing what I intended. I'm not saying Dalton is a poor QB. He's been a great NFL QB and should continue to get better. Could he get another 300 or so yards and 3 more TD? Sure. But that leaves him only 1,000 yards and 10 TD away from the head of the back of FANTASY QBs. And sadly, 4000/30 for a QB these days does not a great fantasy QB make.

Being the #12 fantasy is basically saying you are the worst starting QB in a typical fantasy league. I know it sounds harsh, but do we really want to applaud what would essentially be the worst scoring starting QB in your league? And the other thing (not directed at you specifically) is that seemingly ever player on the boards here gets projected by people to GO UP in production. Not every player will do better than the year before. It is possible he could do worse (although I wouldn't expect him to).

I don't think I am missing the point. And actually, as far as FF (Weeks 1-13) Dalton was actually QB9-10 last year depending on scoring. In 6 pt per passing TD, 1 pt per 20 yds leagues he was QB9 just 4.375 ppg from the #1 Brees and dead even with #9 Cam Newton and only 1/2ppg from #6 Matt Ryan. In 4pts per passing TD, 1 pt per 25 yds passing he was QB10 only 3.5ppg difference from #1 Brees through week 13 and only 1-2.5 ppg separated QB's 3-11. The reason his PPG average slipped after that was game 14 they ran it down Philly's throat (41 rushes vs 27 passes) in a blow-out, and then finished with Pittsburgh and Baltimore (Dalton not finishing the Baltimore game). Brees, OTOH, had 2 huge games vs non-playoff teams TB and CAR. To me not worth the 8 or 9 round difference where they were drafted.

http://football23.myfantasyleague.com/2013/top?L=32092&SEARCHTYPE=BASIC&COUNT=30&YEAR=2012&START_WEEK=1&END_WEEK=13&CATEGORY=overall&

POSITION=QB&DISPLAY=points&TEAM=*&SORT=AVG

http://football18.myfantasyleague.com/2013/top?L=23236&SEARCHTYPE=BASIC&COUNT=30&YEAR=2012&START_WEEK=1&END_WEEK=13&CATEGORY=overall&POSITION=*&DISPLAY=points&TEAM=*

 

[LususV]

My QBs in my main two leagues last year: Romo/Luck/R.Wilson (3 headed QBBC until I dealt Wilson later on) and Romo/Schaub (2 QB league, I picked up Kaepernick for a lucky TD on one of my bye weeks (when he was still clear backup) and punted my other bye week entirely). Not the top QBs available, by any stretch. But the rest of my teams were something nice. Charles/Martin/Spiller/Calvin/Dez was a pretty damn nice core.

 

[Anarchy99]

For late pickers, there is a QB who last year joined an elite club with Peyton and Marino as the only QBs ever with more than 20 TDs in each of their first 2 years. Outplayed Stafford half of the time last year (FWTW).Going round 9-ish. With major upgrades to the O during the off season.andy dalton....ssshhh

And he ranked QB 12 and QB 15 in his 2 seasons. I think a lot of people really haven't run the numbers to see JUST HOW MUCH SCORING they are losing by having a QB 10-12 in their lineup compared to some of the big boys. With some guys throwing for 5,000 yards and 40+ TD, having a QB that doesn't hit 4,000 or 30 should be considered a liability.

Worst case 6pt per passing TD, 1 pt per 20yds passing, 5.5-7ppg to the top 3QB, 4 ppg to the 4-7 and 1-2ppg to 8-9 QB. More likely case w/ 4pt per passing TD, 1 pt per 25 yds passing, 0-2.5 ppg to 8-9QB, 1.5-4ppg to 5-7QB and 5.5-6.5ppg to 1-4QB. So unless you get one of the top 3 or 4 QB's probably not enough difference to make or break you considering what you might get at RB or WR in the first 2 rounds if you pass on a top 3-4 QB.

As for Dalton, you're actually going to consider his rookie year at QB15 eh. He went from 3398 yds/20TD to 3669/27TD (plus he ran for 4 TD) so you don't think he can improve again with one more year experience and an upgrade in weapons 331 more yds and 3 more TD's. That's all he needs to improve to get to 4000/30.

You are missing what I intended. I'm not saying Dalton is a poor QB. He's been a great NFL QB and should continue to get better. Could he get another 300 or so yards and 3 more TD? Sure. But that leaves him only 1,000 yards and 10 TD away from the head of the back of FANTASY QBs. And sadly, 4000/30 for a QB these days does not a great fantasy QB make.

Being the #12 fantasy is basically saying you are the worst starting QB in a typical fantasy league. I know it sounds harsh, but do we really want to applaud what would essentially be the worst scoring starting QB in your league? And the other thing (not directed at you specifically) is that seemingly ever player on the boards here gets projected by people to GO UP in production. Not every player will do better than the year before. It is possible he could do worse (although I wouldn't expect him to).

I don't think I am missing the point. And actually, as far as FF (Weeks 1-13) Dalton was actually QB9-10 last year depending on scoring. In 6 pt per passing TD, 1 pt per 20 yds leagues he was QB9 just 4.375 ppg from the #1 Brees and dead even with #9 Cam Newton and only 1/2ppg from #6 Matt Ryan. In 4pts per passing TD, 1 pt per 25 yds passing he was QB10 only 3.5ppg difference from #1 Brees through week 13 and only 1-2.5 ppg separated QB's 3-11. The reason his PPG average slipped after that was game 14 they ran it down Philly's throat (41 rushes vs 27 passes) in a blow-out, and then finished with Pittsburgh and Baltimore (Dalton not finishing the Baltimore game). Brees, OTOH, had 2 huge games vs non-playoff teams TB and CAR. To me not worth the 8 or 9 round difference where they were drafted.

http://football23.myfantasyleague.com/2013/top?L=32092&SEARCHTYPE=BASIC&COUNT=30&YEAR=2012&START_WEEK=1&END_WEEK=13&CATEGORY=overall&

POSITION=QB&DISPLAY=points&TEAM=*&SORT=AVG

http://football18.myfantasyleague.com/2013/top?L=23236&SEARCHTYPE=BASIC&COUNT=30&YEAR=2012&START_WEEK=1&END_WEEK=13&CATEGORY=overall&POSITION=*&DISPLAY=points&TEAM=*

No matter how you dissect it and poke and prod it, the only real difference for a fantasy team is comparing the players where the QBs were taken and who the other players were.

So in your scenario,

highly drafted QB (say 2nd round + a so so RB or WR in the 8th vs. a likely RB2 in the 2nd and a (hopefully) salvageable QB in the 8th. You could (and likely would) have drafted the same team other wise and those are the only two variables between the two teams.

Personally, I don't see where a big scoring difference in an elite QB will be made up in a better RB2 or low end WR1 (which would pretty much be the options where the QB was drafted). But again, it all depends on the scoring system of each league . . .

 

[kutta]

There is no other position where you have absolute sure things in the top four guys. Here are the orders of finish in one of my leagues (I'm sure most leagues are similar):

2010:

1. Brady

2. Rogers

3. Peyton

6. Brees

2011:

1. Rogers

2. Brees

3. Brady

(Peyton DNP)

2012:

1. Brees

2. Rogers,

3. Brady

4. Peyton

There is no other position like this. This is not "per game averages" or any of that stuff. This is end of the year stats. These guys all stay healthy, and you are pretty much guaranteed a top four finish by any of them in any given year. It's really quite remarkable.

The beauty of taking these guys early is that you do not have to worry about the position all year, and during the draft, you don't have to worry about getting that 2nd QB in round 6 or 7. I know there are a lot of "up and coming" QB's, but you have to guess correctly which one might put up good numbers. I'll take the sure things at QB and fill in the other pieces around that rock any day.

 

[One More Rep]

Here's Grahamburn's quote from that part of the other thread:

I tend to agree with the strategy, but I'm sure anyone who has played FF before has had it be successful and has had it backfire.

To which I would respond, I think a major difference between the attractiveness of the strategy this year and in years past is the makeup of the guys in the QB8-14 range. Generally, in past seasons these were mostly clear "tier 3" guys ... one of them might (in fact usually would) finish in the top 5, but you never knew who ... and the remaining guys would be pretty safe bets to deliver tier-3-type seasons. Unless you were in a best-ball league, even picking two guys from that group didn't usually help you much - first, you had to make the right choice at starter each week, and second, even with an above-average performance from your guy you'd still find yourself giving up multiple points per week to the Brady / Brees / Rodgers owners. This year, in addition to the "solid but unspectacular" guys in that range, you've got a significant number of possible home-run hitters ... guys that have a real shot of breaking into that top 3, but who just as easily might finish QB18 or QB20. RG3, Wilson, Kaepernick, Stafford, and Vick may all be getting drafted in the QB8-15 range, but I can assure you they aren't all gonna finish there. One, maybe two will, but the others may flame out, or may catch fire and turn in Brady-type PPG scoring at a 6th or 7th round price tag.

And in standard scoring leagues, I'd much rather have a more binary-type set of outcomes from one half of my QBBC than an all-but-guaranteed QB12 season. If you catch lightning in a bottle, great, you could very well win your league because of it. If not, you bench him or trade him, ride Big Ben or Eli to a consistent if not prodigious weekly score, and hope the elite RB / WR / TE you grabbed in the 2nd round instead can make those points up for you.

Every year there are adamant "wait on QB" guys who vehemently say they can just "grab a Roethlisberger or Romo later." It's not really that easy. If you're the last guy to draft a QB in a 12 team league, and that QB ends up being QB12 I don't think the strategy was successful.

In my leagues, which are 6 points per TD pass, Romo was QB9 and finished a full 6.1 points per game behind Rodgers. Romo had 7 games with 1 TD pass or fewer, and only 4 with 3 TDs or more. Rodgers had 8 games (5 of which were 4 or more TDs including rushing) with at least 3 TDs.

Brees and Manning were even more consistent with 11 and 9 such performances respectively. Think about that.

You have to hit on just about all of the other players you've drafted to keep up with that kind of production. You lose a lot of points to the guy starting an elite QB with someone like Romo. I know this because I owned him. You look at his end of year finish (QB9), and think "wow, he had a good year, why'd I get my butt kicked every week?"

If we employ this strategy it should be with the intent of identifying the QB who can be drafted 8-12 that will keep up with those elite guys, because they will most likely all be elite. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Manning. Those are the guys we have to compete with. Who can accomplish that feat?

You identified a few "home run hitters" in your post, and those are guys I definitely like, but to keep up with the big boys I think you need to meet a few criteria. Pass-first oriented offense, dynamic offensive weapons to throw to, and elite arm talent. Let's look at a few:

Cam Newton - He's a talented player, but does he have the weapons? He had a high finish his rookie year, but defenses seemed to figure him out a little. He no longer has elite weapons to throw to, and probably will still make too many mistakes to break into the truly elite tier. He'll also probably go too early to be considered as a "wait on QB" candidate.

Russell Wilson - Like everyone else, I really liked what I saw from him. Great decision making, nice arm, and solid weapons. Will there be enough pass attempts in this offense to offset the likely regression in his passing efficiency statistics? He plays in a tough division as well. I can see his ADP rising during August and think he'll go quickly after Cam.

Colin Kaepernick - Similar questions as Wilson with fewer weapons now that Crabtree is injured. Can he hold up for a full season if he runs this much?

RG3 - Injury concerns, and if he starts to show he's healthy he'll be going right around the same time as Tom Brady.

Matthew Stafford - Obviously he's made the leap before to the elite tier, and he likely won championships for several FF players that season. This is what we're looking for. Is he more 2011 or 2012? My projection has him somewhere in between, but if he's going behind these other guys he's a legitimate target.

Andrew Luck - Another player who I feel meets the criteria laid out above. Elite arm, an offense he knows like the back of his hand, some interesting weapons at WR and TE, and he also has a nose for the end zone when he decides to tuck it and run. Can he make the necessary leap?

Those last two are the guys I'll be looking at...

Roethlisberger, Eli, Flacco, Schaub, Vick, Dalton, Palmer, Bradford, Cutler. That's a whole lot of meh to me. You won't be able to compete with the big boys here.

I do have one darkhorse candidate. Josh Freeman. A quiet QB13 finish with 27 TDs and 4,065 yards. He had two back to back horrendous 4 INT performances in weeks 15 and 16 to put a giant black eye on what was a record breaking season for a Tampa Bay QB. Big arm, red zone weapons at WR, vertical passing offense, a good receiving RB, great line, and an improved defense could help Josh make a push toward the top 5 at QB, and he'll likely go much later than a lot of other players.

I'd love to pair him up with Luck or Stafford.

In closing, it's not enough to just say "I'll wait on QB and get the guy ranked 12th" you have to wait and get the guy who drastically outperforms his draft position to compete.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Here's Grahamburn's quote from that part of the other thread:

I tend to agree with the strategy, but I'm sure anyone who has played FF before has had it be successful and has had it backfire.

To which I would respond, I think a major difference between the attractiveness of the strategy this year and in years past is the makeup of the guys in the QB8-14 range. Generally, in past seasons these were mostly clear "tier 3" guys ... one of them might (in fact usually would) finish in the top 5, but you never knew who ... and the remaining guys would be pretty safe bets to deliver tier-3-type seasons. Unless you were in a best-ball league, even picking two guys from that group didn't usually help you much - first, you had to make the right choice at starter each week, and second, even with an above-average performance from your guy you'd still find yourself giving up multiple points per week to the Brady / Brees / Rodgers owners. This year, in addition to the "solid but unspectacular" guys in that range, you've got a significant number of possible home-run hitters ... guys that have a real shot of breaking into that top 3, but who just as easily might finish QB18 or QB20. RG3, Wilson, Kaepernick, Stafford, and Vick may all be getting drafted in the QB8-15 range, but I can assure you they aren't all gonna finish there. One, maybe two will, but the others may flame out, or may catch fire and turn in Brady-type PPG scoring at a 6th or 7th round price tag.

And in standard scoring leagues, I'd much rather have a more binary-type set of outcomes from one half of my QBBC than an all-but-guaranteed QB12 season. If you catch lightning in a bottle, great, you could very well win your league because of it. If not, you bench him or trade him, ride Big Ben or Eli to a consistent if not prodigious weekly score, and hope the elite RB / WR / TE you grabbed in the 2nd round instead can make those points up for you.

Every year there are adamant "wait on QB" guys who vehemently say they can just "grab a Roethlisberger or Romo later." It's not really that easy. If you're the last guy to draft a QB in a 12 team league, and that QB ends up being QB12 I don't think the strategy was successful.

In my leagues, which are 6 points per TD pass, Romo was QB9 and finished a full 6.1 points per game behind Rodgers. Romo had 7 games with 1 TD pass or fewer, and only 4 with 3 TDs or more. Rodgers had 8 games (5 of which were 4 or more TDs including rushing) with at least 3 TDs.

Brees and Manning were even more consistent with 11 and 9 such performances respectively. Think about that.

You have to hit on just about all of the other players you've drafted to keep up with that kind of production. You lose a lot of points to the guy starting an elite QB with someone like Romo. I know this because I owned him. You look at his end of year finish (QB9), and think "wow, he had a good year, why'd I get my butt kicked every week?"

If we employ this strategy it should be with the intent of identifying the QB who can be drafted 8-12 that will keep up with those elite guys, because they will most likely all be elite. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Manning. Those are the guys we have to compete with. Who can accomplish that feat?

You identified a few "home run hitters" in your post, and those are guys I definitely like, but to keep up with the big boys I think you need to meet a few criteria. Pass-first oriented offense, dynamic offensive weapons to throw to, and elite arm talent. Let's look at a few:

Cam Newton - He's a talented player, but does he have the weapons? He had a high finish his rookie year, but defenses seemed to figure him out a little. He no longer has elite weapons to throw to, and probably will still make too many mistakes to break into the truly elite tier. He'll also probably go too early to be considered as a "wait on QB" candidate.

Russell Wilson - Like everyone else, I really liked what I saw from him. Great decision making, nice arm, and solid weapons. Will there be enough pass attempts in this offense to offset the likely regression in his passing efficiency statistics? He plays in a tough division as well. I can see his ADP rising during August and think he'll go quickly after Cam.

Colin Kaepernick - Similar questions as Wilson with fewer weapons now that Crabtree is injured. Can he hold up for a full season if he runs this much?

RG3 - Injury concerns, and if he starts to show he's healthy he'll be going right around the same time as Tom Brady.

Matthew Stafford - Obviously he's made the leap before to the elite tier, and he likely won championships for several FF players that season. This is what we're looking for. Is he more 2011 or 2012? My projection has him somewhere in between, but if he's going behind these other guys he's a legitimate target.

Andrew Luck - Another player who I feel meets the criteria laid out above. Elite arm, an offense he knows like the back of his hand, some interesting weapons at WR and TE, and he also has a nose for the end zone when he decides to tuck it and run. Can he make the necessary leap?

Those last two are the guys I'll be looking at...

Roethlisberger, Eli, Flacco, Schaub, Vick, Dalton, Palmer, Bradford, Cutler. That's a whole lot of meh to me. You won't be able to compete with the big boys here.

I do have one darkhorse candidate. Josh Freeman. A quiet QB13 finish with 27 TDs and 4,065 yards. He had two back to back horrendous 4 INT performances in weeks 15 and 16 to put a giant black eye on what was a record breaking season for a Tampa Bay QB. Big arm, red zone weapons at WR, vertical passing offense, a good receiving RB, great line, and an improved defense could help Josh make a push toward the top 5 at QB, and he'll likely go much later than a lot of other players.

I'd love to pair him up with Luck or Stafford.

In closing, it's not enough to just say "I'll wait on QB and get the guy ranked 12th" you have to wait and get the guy who drastically outperforms his draft position to compete.

I actually don't disagree with a whole lot of what you've laid out here - in particular your assessment of the guys in that range is very fair, and I'm 100% on board the Freeman train this year and will probably own him in most leagues.

And I should note for the record that I'm not generally a "wait on QB" guy. In fact I did a quick analysis during the PDSL draft where I found that, using FBG MFL scoring, even if you'd picked the correct starter every single week last season from a tandem like Big Ben / Flacco or Eli / Dalton, you'd still have come up about 2ppg short of what Drew Brees provided you all by himself (and that's with a zero on his bye week).

But nonetheless, I think your conclusion is unwarranted, this year in particular. Even in most years, if your QB12 finishes QB12 and you get a real stud with that 2nd-round pick with which you passed on a top-3 QB, it's usually enough to compete (unless your league scoring is very QB-heavy). It may not be enough to dominate, but FF playoffs are a lot like the NFL playoffs - once you're in, anything can happen.

This year, IMO of course, there's a significantly greater than normal chance that more than one guy picked in the QB8-14 range will finish in the top 5. If I happen to land one of those "high-upside" guys and hit on my 2nd-round pick, I'm well on the way to dominating my league. If I miss on the QB, well, hitting with that 2nd-rounder should still give me enough to compete, since I'm looking to pair that QB with a consistent tier-3 guy anyway.

And again, this is all in the context of your league's specific format. In one of mine - with 4-pt passing TD's, 1 pt per 25 pass yards, two (non-QB) flex spots, and PPR - I've never spent more than the equivalent of a 6th-round pick on a QB, and may spend even less this year; I love the "must have Brees at any price" guys, because the position just ain't that valuable on a relative basis. In another, with 6-pt TD's / 1 per 15 yards, fixed positional lineups, and 0 PPR, I've owned a stud QB every year, and would be hard-pressed to abandon that strategy even if I knew for a fact that there would be multiple top-5 QB's coming out of the 8-14 spots, because having a "sure thing" stud QB offers so much of an advantage.

 

[We Tigers]

In a league with fairly normal scoring, I find the real trick to waiting on a QB is to actually wait. Waiting on a QB doesn't mean taking Tony Romo in the 4th round after 8 other guys come off the board. If you're not taking an elite/fire-and-forget-every-week guy like Brees or Rodgers, you can't reach and expect to win. You need to be using your 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th picks (and so on, as long as you can) to load up elsewhere rather than settling. The goal of any drafting strategy is to create an advantage over your opponents in some fashion, and caving after a run on QBs is a surefire way to undercut the advantage you were trying to create by waiting.

 

[fightingillini]

There is no other position where you have absolute sure things in the top four guys. Here are the orders of finish in one of my leagues (I'm sure most leagues are similar):

2010:

1. Brady

2. Rogers

3. Peyton

6. Brees

2011:

1. Rogers

2. Brees

3. Brady

(Peyton DNP)

2012:

1. Brees

2. Rogers,

3. Brady

4. Peyton

There is no other position like this. This is not "per game averages" or any of that stuff. This is end of the year stats. These guys all stay healthy, and you are pretty much guaranteed a top four finish by any of them in any given year. It's really quite remarkable.

The beauty of taking these guys early is that you do not have to worry about the position all year, and during the draft, you don't have to worry about getting that 2nd QB in round 6 or 7. I know there are a lot of "up and coming" QB's, but you have to guess correctly which one might put up good numbers. I'll take the sure things at QB and fill in the other pieces around that rock any day.

While I don't disagree that Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and Peyton are money in the bank, the problem is that you need to spend a 2nd rounder (or early 3rd) to secure one of them. The QB is deep this year where the you can get Russell Wilson or Tony Romo 3-4 rounds later. You will need to mock it out and see if top 4 QBs are worth the cost. In leagues where you start 2RBs and 3WRs, I would say the answer is no. Last year, I had the 6th pick in a 12 teamer, and once all the great RBs, Calvin and Rodgers were gone, I took Brady. Sure he was money, but I paid for it big time. I got lucky that I got Charles and Bradshaw in the next two rounds and they were a pretty good RB combo, but my WRs were Colston, Torrey Smith, and a revolving door at WR3. My WRs sucked and I had no chance. Brady wasn't much better than the winner of the league that took RGIII in round 8 or 9.

In most cases, I can't see the top 4 QBs scoring more than a QB drafted in the 6th round, + the difference in RBs and WRs taken in between. Taking a RB in round 1 and a QB in round 2, makes you take your WR1 in rounds 3 or 4, so your lead WR is going to be at best WR12. You will miss out on all the decent RB2s and are going to be left with a pretty suspect RB2.

You can win by taking a QB early, but IMO it's better to load up on RBs and good WRs, since they aren't that many of them (IMO, 10 good RBs and 20 good WRs)....you need at least 3 of them on your team to be competitive.

 

[fightingillini]

In a league with fairly normal scoring, I find the real trick to waiting on a QB is to actually wait. Waiting on a QB doesn't mean taking Tony Romo in the 4th round after 8 other guys come off the board. If you're not taking an elite/fire-and-forget-every-week guy like Brees or Rodgers, you can't reach and expect to win. You need to be using your 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th picks (and so on, as long as you can) to load up elsewhere rather than settling. The goal of any drafting strategy is to create an advantage over your opponents in some fashion, and caving after a run on QBs is a surefire way to undercut the advantage you were trying to create by waiting.

I agree. I wait until 6-7 QBs on my "I can accept as my everyweek starter" are gone, and then I look to secure my QB. Usually means that I won't take a QB until round 5 at the earliest, but I prefer to wait until round 6 to get my QB and then take my 2nd around Round 9.

But that said, I think there is a dropoff after the 1st 11 or so QBs are off the board, so I wouldn't wait that long, unless you are willing to do a QBBC.

 

[Khy]

In a league with fairly normal scoring, I find the real trick to waiting on a QB is to actually wait. Waiting on a QB doesn't mean taking Tony Romo in the 4th round after 8 other guys come off the board. If you're not taking an elite/fire-and-forget-every-week guy like Brees or Rodgers, you can't reach and expect to win. You need to be using your 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th picks (and so on, as long as you can) to load up elsewhere rather than settling. The goal of any drafting strategy is to create an advantage over your opponents in some fashion, and caving after a run on QBs is a surefire way to undercut the advantage you were trying to create by waiting.

I agree. I wait until 6-7 QBs on my "I can accept as my everyweek starter" are gone, and then I look to secure my QB. Usually means that I won't take a QB until round 5 at the earliest, but I prefer to wait until round 6 to get my QB and then take my 2nd around Round 9.

But that said, I think there is a dropoff after the 1st 11 or so QBs are off the board, so I wouldn't wait that long, unless you are willing to do a QBBC.

In my 12 team league we have a 17 round draft... I tend to wait from around 7-9th rounds to draft a QB. Last three years was Rivers in I think the 6th as he was still there and I thought he'd be gone, Ryan in the 8th and RG3 in the 9th. This year I'm hoping to get something similar along the lines of Wilson, Dalton, Freeman type of player who will be solid enough. I go in there with the idea of "Unless Brees, Manning or Brady fall to the 3rd round. I'm not drafting a QB until round 7-9". If one of those guys somehow falls to the third round it's worth the pick in my eyes. But that never actually happens so it doesn't matter lol

 

[Anarchy99]

There is no other position where you have absolute sure things in the top four guys. Here are the orders of finish in one of my leagues (I'm sure most leagues are similar):

2010:

1. Brady

2. Rogers

3. Peyton

6. Brees

2011:

1. Rogers

2. Brees

3. Brady

(Peyton DNP)

2012:

1. Brees

2. Rogers,

3. Brady

4. Peyton

There is no other position like this. This is not "per game averages" or any of that stuff. This is end of the year stats. These guys all stay healthy, and you are pretty much guaranteed a top four finish by any of them in any given year. It's really quite remarkable.

The beauty of taking these guys early is that you do not have to worry about the position all year, and during the draft, you don't have to worry about getting that 2nd QB in round 6 or 7. I know there are a lot of "up and coming" QB's, but you have to guess correctly which one might put up good numbers. I'll take the sure things at QB and fill in the other pieces around that rock any day.

While I don't disagree that Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and Peyton are money in the bank, the problem is that you need to spend a 2nd rounder (or early 3rd) to secure one of them. The QB is deep this year where the you can get Russell Wilson or Tony Romo 3-4 rounds later. You will need to mock it out and see if top 4 QBs are worth the cost. In leagues where you start 2RBs and 3WRs, I would say the answer is no. Last year, I had the 6th pick in a 12 teamer, and once all the great RBs, Calvin and Rodgers were gone, I took Brady. Sure he was money, but I paid for it big time. I got lucky that I got Charles and Bradshaw in the next two rounds and they were a pretty good RB combo, but my WRs were Colston, Torrey Smith, and a revolving door at WR3. My WRs sucked and I had no chance. Brady wasn't much better than the winner of the league that took RGIII in round 8 or 9.

In most cases, I can't see the top 4 QBs scoring more than a QB drafted in the 6th round, + the difference in RBs and WRs taken in between. Taking a RB in round 1 and a QB in round 2, makes you take your WR1 in rounds 3 or 4, so your lead WR is going to be at best WR12. You will miss out on all the decent RB2s and are going to be left with a pretty suspect RB2.

You can win by taking a QB early, but IMO it's better to load up on RBs and good WRs, since they aren't that many of them (IMO, 10 good RBs and 20 good WRs)....you need at least 3 of them on your team to be competitive.

Again, you would draft the same rest of your roster and target the same positions if you take a QB in the 2nd round. Either you pick a good rest of the roster or you don't. In your situation, the only real comparison to make is who you would have taken instead of Brady. You can't hang your entire team full of RBs and WRs on taking a QB.

If your WRs sucked, they would have sucked even without Brady. That doesn't mean taking Brady was a bad move. It's just unfortunate that you ended up with unproductive receivers.

 

[Grahamburn]

Here's Grahamburn's quote from that part of the other thread:

I tend to agree with the strategy, but I'm sure anyone who has played FF before has had it be successful and has had it backfire.

To which I would respond, I think a major difference between the attractiveness of the strategy this year and in years past is the makeup of the guys in the QB8-14 range. Generally, in past seasons these were mostly clear "tier 3" guys ... one of them might (in fact usually would) finish in the top 5, but you never knew who ... and the remaining guys would be pretty safe bets to deliver tier-3-type seasons. Unless you were in a best-ball league, even picking two guys from that group didn't usually help you much - first, you had to make the right choice at starter each week, and second, even with an above-average performance from your guy you'd still find yourself giving up multiple points per week to the Brady / Brees / Rodgers owners. This year, in addition to the "solid but unspectacular" guys in that range, you've got a significant number of possible home-run hitters ... guys that have a real shot of breaking into that top 3, but who just as easily might finish QB18 or QB20. RG3, Wilson, Kaepernick, Stafford, and Vick may all be getting drafted in the QB8-15 range, but I can assure you they aren't all gonna finish there. One, maybe two will, but the others may flame out, or may catch fire and turn in Brady-type PPG scoring at a 6th or 7th round price tag.

And in standard scoring leagues, I'd much rather have a more binary-type set of outcomes from one half of my QBBC than an all-but-guaranteed QB12 season. If you catch lightning in a bottle, great, you could very well win your league because of it. If not, you bench him or trade him, ride Big Ben or Eli to a consistent if not prodigious weekly score, and hope the elite RB / WR / TE you grabbed in the 2nd round instead can make those points up for you.

Every year there are adamant "wait on QB" guys who vehemently say they can just "grab a Roethlisberger or Romo later." It's not really that easy. If you're the last guy to draft a QB in a 12 team league, and that QB ends up being QB12 I don't think the strategy was successful.

In my leagues, which are 6 points per TD pass, Romo was QB9 and finished a full 6.1 points per game behind Rodgers. Romo had 7 games with 1 TD pass or fewer, and only 4 with 3 TDs or more. Rodgers had 8 games (5 of which were 4 or more TDs including rushing) with at least 3 TDs.

Brees and Manning were even more consistent with 11 and 9 such performances respectively. Think about that.

You have to hit on just about all of the other players you've drafted to keep up with that kind of production. You lose a lot of points to the guy starting an elite QB with someone like Romo. I know this because I owned him. You look at his end of year finish (QB9), and think "wow, he had a good year, why'd I get my butt kicked every week?"

If we employ this strategy it should be with the intent of identifying the QB who can be drafted 8-12 that will keep up with those elite guys, because they will most likely all be elite. Rodgers, Brady, Brees, and Manning. Those are the guys we have to compete with. Who can accomplish that feat?

You identified a few "home run hitters" in your post, and those are guys I definitely like, but to keep up with the big boys I think you need to meet a few criteria. Pass-first oriented offense, dynamic offensive weapons to throw to, and elite arm talent. Let's look at a few:

Cam Newton - He's a talented player, but does he have the weapons? He had a high finish his rookie year, but defenses seemed to figure him out a little. He no longer has elite weapons to throw to, and probably will still make too many mistakes to break into the truly elite tier. He'll also probably go too early to be considered as a "wait on QB" candidate.

Russell Wilson - Like everyone else, I really liked what I saw from him. Great decision making, nice arm, and solid weapons. Will there be enough pass attempts in this offense to offset the likely regression in his passing efficiency statistics? He plays in a tough division as well. I can see his ADP rising during August and think he'll go quickly after Cam.

Colin Kaepernick - Similar questions as Wilson with fewer weapons now that Crabtree is injured. Can he hold up for a full season if he runs this much?

RG3 - Injury concerns, and if he starts to show he's healthy he'll be going right around the same time as Tom Brady.

Matthew Stafford - Obviously he's made the leap before to the elite tier, and he likely won championships for several FF players that season. This is what we're looking for. Is he more 2011 or 2012? My projection has him somewhere in between, but if he's going behind these other guys he's a legitimate target.

Andrew Luck - Another player who I feel meets the criteria laid out above. Elite arm, an offense he knows like the back of his hand, some interesting weapons at WR and TE, and he also has a nose for the end zone when he decides to tuck it and run. Can he make the necessary leap?

Those last two are the guys I'll be looking at...

Roethlisberger, Eli, Flacco, Schaub, Vick, Dalton, Palmer, Bradford, Cutler. That's a whole lot of meh to me. You won't be able to compete with the big boys here.

I do have one darkhorse candidate. Josh Freeman. A quiet QB13 finish with 27 TDs and 4,065 yards. He had two back to back horrendous 4 INT performances in weeks 15 and 16 to put a giant black eye on what was a record breaking season for a Tampa Bay QB. Big arm, red zone weapons at WR, vertical passing offense, a good receiving RB, great line, and an improved defense could help Josh make a push toward the top 5 at QB, and he'll likely go much later than a lot of other players.

I'd love to pair him up with Luck or Stafford.

In closing, it's not enough to just say "I'll wait on QB and get the guy ranked 12th" you have to wait and get the guy who drastically outperforms his draft position to compete.

I actually don't disagree with a whole lot of what you've laid out here - in particular your assessment of the guys in that range is very fair, and I'm 100% on board the Freeman train this year and will probably own him in most leagues.

And I should note for the record that I'm not generally a "wait on QB" guy. In fact I did a quick analysis during the PDSL draft where I found that, using FBG MFL scoring, even if you'd picked the correct starter every single week last season from a tandem like Big Ben / Flacco or Eli / Dalton, you'd still have come up about 2ppg short of what Drew Brees provided you all by himself (and that's with a zero on his bye week).

This is pretty much the point I'm getting at. Even a hypothetical QBBC executed to absolute perfection is not as good as Drew Brees.

But nonetheless, I think your conclusion is unwarranted, this year in particular. Even in most years, if your QB12 finishes QB12 and you get a real stud with that 2nd-round pick with which you passed on a top-3 QB, it's usually enough to compete (unless your league scoring is very QB-heavy). It may not be enough to dominate, but FF playoffs are a lot like the NFL playoffs - once you're in, anything can happen.

What happens to the stategy when the guy who drafted Drew Brees also lands this year's C.J. Spiller or Alfred Morris? You're assuming he can't draft quality position players later on to compete with you while also assuming the QB you draft will be able to compete with him.

This year, IMO of course, there's a significantly greater than normal chance that more than one guy picked in the QB8-14 range will finish in the top 5. If I happen to land one of those "high-upside" guys and hit on my 2nd-round pick, I'm well on the way to dominating my league. If I miss on the QB, well, hitting with that 2nd-rounder should still give me enough to compete, since I'm looking to pair that QB with a consistent tier-3 guy anyway.

As it always is, it will be interesting to see which QBs can make that leap and which ones won't. There will be plenty of fantasy football players who employ this strategy only to run off and never be heard from again.

I agree with the strategy. I just think it's important to do our best to identify the QB who has the most realistic chance to keep up with the elite players instead of just throwing a dart at QB8-QB14 and hoping I hit a bullseye.

That was the point of my post.

 

[Grahamburn]

I don't know how to break up the quote tags with the new board format. Sorry if that's difficult to read.

 

[Anarchy99]

Put another way, based on VBD in whatever system FBG bases their scoring system on, Brady has ranked OVERALL in terms of VBD:

2012 - 10th

2011 - 3rd

2010 - 12th

Bottom line, Brady has ended the year as a first round pick the past 3 years based on VBD. Brees ranked 6th and first overall the past two seasons in VBD. Rodgers also ranked very similarly among those two. How does picking any of those three translate to being a bad pick?

 

[butcher boy]

Last year, taking a QB in round 1 was a good move mainly because of all the question marks surrounding most of the first round running backs. I don't think taking a safe stud QB in round 1 can ever truly be a bad pick but it may not be the optimal pick.

 

[Donnybrook]

Would it be a bad stategy to go QBBC with two mid-range QBs? I am drawn to the idea of getting Andrew Luck and Russel Wilson.

 

[butcher boy]

Would it be a bad stategy to go QBBC with two mid-range QBs? I am drawn to the idea of getting Andrew Luck and Russel Wilson.

I don't like this. You're still going to have the problem of pulling your hair out deciding who to start each week, then watching the other guy put up better numbers.

I could see it being an ok idea if you absolutely nailed the first few rounds of the draft, but it seems like you're giving up two relatively early picks that wont really pan out unless you pick the best guy to start each week.

 

[kutta]

Put another way, based on VBD in whatever system FBG bases their scoring system on, Brady has ranked OVERALL in terms of VBD:

2012 - 10th

2011 - 3rd

2010 - 12th

Bottom line, Brady has ended the year as a first round pick the past 3 years based on VBD. Brees ranked 6th and first overall the past two seasons in VBD. Rodgers also ranked very similarly among those two. How does picking any of those three translate to being a bad pick?

Exactly. And the real beauty of these early QB's are that they are the closest thing to guarantees that we have in FF. Their risk is at the absolute bottom of the risk curve.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

The risk on getting Brees/Rodgers/Brady is passing on a RB1, no? If you're not gambling on one thing you're gambling on another.

You could have gotten a Wilson, Kaepernick and Griffin for decent (or even WW for Wilson and Kaepernick) value last year, but you would have been carrying extra roster space to make it work.

In other years, guys like Stafford and Rodgers and Brees have emerged, and it was an excellent choice to wait, so perhaps it depends on the year.

 

[LususV]

Would it be a bad stategy to go QBBC with two mid-range QBs? I am drawn to the idea of getting Andrew Luck and Russel Wilson.

I don't like this. You're still going to have the problem of pulling your hair out deciding who to start each week, then watching the other guy put up better numbers.

I could see it being an ok idea if you absolutely nailed the first few rounds of the draft, but it seems like you're giving up two relatively early picks that wont really pan out unless you pick the best guy to start each week.

It's not that hard to take a look at SOS before the season and update accordingly when extra info is supplied.

This was my 2012 plan (I deviated during the season, as I traded Russell Wilson when he started his breakout mid-season and missed out on his season finish (but I had Romo, so I still did well, but Wilson's week 15 would have been what I needed to get to the Championship (I lost in the semi-finals by <5 points) which I would have won with >2x my opponent's points):

Start by week:

1: Romo - @NYG

2: Luck - MIN

3: Romo - TB

4: Romo - CHI (Luck on Bye and Wilson @STL)

5: Luck - GB

6: Wilson - NE

7: Romo - @CAR

8: Romo - NYG

9: Wilson - MIN

10: Romo - @PHI

11: Luck - @NE

12: Romo - WAS

13: Romo - PHI

14: Romo - @CIN

15: Wilson - @BUF

16: Romo - NO

If I had maintained this plan exactly, weeks 1-16, I would have gotten 338 points from my QB slot (25 yards per point, 4 point TDs, -2 for interceptions (my #s listed below are missing fumbles, so may be slightly off). Brees/Brady/Rodgers were all in the 318-321 range, so it would have taken a 17-20 point bye week QB to match me.

The worst weeks on this plan:

Week 3 - Romo vs TB scored 9.3 to Luck's 23.5

Week 4 - Luck on bye, Romo scored 6.3 and Wilson scored 1.8 - bad week all around

There's a handful of other weeks where the optimal play was 4-6 points better than my planned play (7: Romo 14.2 to Luck's 20.6 vs CLV) but nothing egregious. Optimal play would have netted 372 points, crushing the elite QBs.

This plan was done entirely on pre-season SOS without midseason adjustment. The QBs were the 12th, 14th, and 17th taken in the draft (12 teamer).

 

[butcher boy]

The risk on getting Brees/Rodgers/Brady is passing on a RB1, no? If you're not gambling on one thing you're gambling on another.

You could have gotten a Wilson, Kaepernick and Griffin for decent (or even WW for Wilson and Kaepernick) value last year, but you would have been carrying extra roster space to make it work.

In other years, guys like Stafford and Rodgers and Brees have emerged, and it was an excellent choice to wait, so perhaps it depends on the year.

Last year if you didn't pick a QB in round 1 and didn't get Foster or maybe one or two other guys, you probably ended up with a bust RB pick. It really does depend on the year.

This year, since stud QBs are going in round 2, you can still land a stud RB1 and a stud QB. I plan to wait and see if any of the stud QBs fall to round 3, but taking one in round 2 cannot really be called a bad pick.

Taking a QB relatively early is more than just a decision based on value, IMO. You get the added benefit of low risk factor, and the added benefit of not having to choose who to start every week.

 

[butcher boy]

Would it be a bad stategy to go QBBC with two mid-range QBs? I am drawn to the idea of getting Andrew Luck and Russel Wilson.

I don't like this. You're still going to have the problem of pulling your hair out deciding who to start each week, then watching the other guy put up better numbers.

I could see it being an ok idea if you absolutely nailed the first few rounds of the draft, but it seems like you're giving up two relatively early picks that wont really pan out unless you pick the best guy to start each week.

It's not that hard to take a look at SOS before the season and update accordingly when extra info is supplied.

This was my 2012 plan (I deviated during the season, as I traded Russell Wilson when he started his breakout mid-season and missed out on his season finish (but I had Romo, so it didn't hurt too badly):

Start by week:

1: Romo - @NYG

2: Luck - MIN

3: Romo - TB

4: Romo - CHI (Luck on Bye and Wilson @STL)

5: Luck - GB

6: Wilson - NE

7: Romo - @CAR

8: Romo - NYG

9: Wilson - MIN

10: Romo - @PHI

11: Luck - @NE

12: Romo - WAS

13: Romo - PHI

14: Romo - @CIN

15: Wilson - @BUF

16: Romo - NO

If I had maintained this plan exactly, weeks 1-16, I would have gotten 338 points from my QB slot (25 yards per point, 4 point TDs, -2 for interceptions). Brees/Brady/Rodgers were all in the 318-321 range, so it would have taken a 17-20 point bye week QB to match me.

The worst weeks on this plan:

Week 3 - Romo vs TB scored 9.3 to Luck's 23.5

Week 4 - Luck on bye, Romo scored 6.3 and Wilson scored 1.8 - bad week all around

There's a handful of other weeks where the optimal play was 4-6 points better than my planned play (7: Romo 14.2 to Luck's 20.6 vs CLV) but nothing egregious. Optimal play would have netted 372 points, crushing the elite QBs.

This plan was done entirely on pre-season SOS without midseason adjustment. The QBs were the 12th, 14th, and 17th taken in the draft (12 teamer).

Except this is reliant on you getting the guys you lay out in your plan. If someone drafts one of them two spots ahead of you, your plan is screwed. It's also reliant on two guys staying healthy/not losing their job/whatever instead of one guy. Also, pre-season defensive rankings are not very reliable.

Sure, if everything works perfect it will pan out just fine, but that's way easier said than done. There's a lot of moving parts that make strategizing a true QBBC difficult.

 

[LususV]

Would it be a bad stategy to go QBBC with two mid-range QBs? I am drawn to the idea of getting Andrew Luck and Russel Wilson.

I don't like this. You're still going to have the problem of pulling your hair out deciding who to start each week, then watching the other guy put up better numbers.

I could see it being an ok idea if you absolutely nailed the first few rounds of the draft, but it seems like you're giving up two relatively early picks that wont really pan out unless you pick the best guy to start each week.

It's not that hard to take a look at SOS before the season and update accordingly when extra info is supplied.

This was my 2012 plan (I deviated during the season, as I traded Russell Wilson when he started his breakout mid-season and missed out on his season finish (but I had Romo, so it didn't hurt too badly):

Start by week:

1: Romo - @NYG

2: Luck - MIN

3: Romo - TB

4: Romo - CHI (Luck on Bye and Wilson @STL)

5: Luck - GB

6: Wilson - NE

7: Romo - @CAR

8: Romo - NYG

9: Wilson - MIN

10: Romo - @PHI

11: Luck - @NE

12: Romo - WAS

13: Romo - PHI

14: Romo - @CIN

15: Wilson - @BUF

16: Romo - NO

If I had maintained this plan exactly, weeks 1-16, I would have gotten 338 points from my QB slot (25 yards per point, 4 point TDs, -2 for interceptions). Brees/Brady/Rodgers were all in the 318-321 range, so it would have taken a 17-20 point bye week QB to match me.

The worst weeks on this plan:

Week 3 - Romo vs TB scored 9.3 to Luck's 23.5

Week 4 - Luck on bye, Romo scored 6.3 and Wilson scored 1.8 - bad week all around

There's a handful of other weeks where the optimal play was 4-6 points better than my planned play (7: Romo 14.2 to Luck's 20.6 vs CLV) but nothing egregious. Optimal play would have netted 372 points, crushing the elite QBs.

This plan was done entirely on pre-season SOS without midseason adjustment. The QBs were the 12th, 14th, and 17th taken in the draft (12 teamer).

Except this is reliant on you getting the guys you lay out in your plan. If someone drafts one of them two spots ahead of you, your plan is screwed. It's also reliant on two guys staying healthy/not losing their job/whatever instead of one guy. Also, pre-season defensive rankings are not very reliable.

Sure, if everything works perfect it will pan out just fine, but that's way easier said than done. There's a lot of moving parts that make strategizing a true QBBC difficult.

I had backup plans (and I actually drafted Locker in addition to these 3, but let him walk early in the season). Romo was the linchpin of the strategy - had someone beaten me to him, I would have had to revise it entirely. But this isn't my first time going QBBC, and definitely won't be the last.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

1. depends on your league scoring system

2. depends on your league starting lineup requirements

3. depends on how many teams in your league

4. depends on your draft spot in that league

5. depends on how well you know the other owners tendencies

6. depends on how good you are at playing the weekly matchup game at QB if you go QBBC ( I suck at it so I don't do it)

lot to be said for not having to try and navigate the weekly QB matchup game

not many safer picks with regard to injury than an elite QB early

personally I will take the weekly point advantage I get from drafting an elite QB early and take my chances of maintaining that advantage by drafting better then you for the rest of the draft at the other positions....

 

[Khy]

1. depends on your league scoring system

2. depends on your league starting lineup requirements

3. depends on how many teams in your league

4. depends on your draft spot in that league

5. depends on how well you know the other owners tendencies

6. depends on how good you are at playing the weekly matchup game at QB if you go QBBC ( I suck at it so I don't do it)

lot to be said for not having to try and navigate the weekly QB matchup game

not many safer picks with regard to injury than an elite QB early

personally I will take the weekly point advantage I get from drafting an elite QB early and take my chances of maintaining that advantage by drafting better then you for the rest of the draft at the other positions....

So your plan is to be better than everyone around you at drafting every position but QB. Got it. I've stated it before but imo having 1-2 elite RBs far outweighs the 1 elite QB strategy unless your league scoring is all over the place. Sure there's less injury concern for an elite QB and they have less down games. But the drop off from RB1 to RB15 is a lot more significant in my eyes than the drop off from QB1 to QB15.

Last years example:

RB1(eliteRB1): Adrian Peterson - 20.58ppg

RB8(midRB1): Trent Richardson - 14.34ppg

RB15 (midRB2): Steven Jackson - 11.35ppg

RB20(lowRB2): Mikel LeShoure - 10.58ppg

RB25(highRB3): Darren McFadden - 8.53ppg

-------

RB1-15 Difference: 9.22ppg

QB1: Drew Brees - 26.14ppg

QB8: Tony Romo - 21.94

QB15: Joe Flacco - 18.05ppg

------

QB1-15 Difference: 8.08ppg

Bear in mind in a 12 team league you're likely not ending up with the QB15 as your starter if you drafted well. You're definitely going to end up with a RB15 as your RB2 or RB3. The choice is yours whether you get a RB1 and a top level RB2/lowend RB1 as your second and pair it with a QB6-12. Or if you get a RB1 and a low end RB2 or RB3 and pair it with a QB1. Personally I just find the drop off much worse on the other end.

All I'm saying is I'll take Peterson and Richardson paired with Romo anyday last season over Brees with Richardson and LeShoure. (56.86ppg vs 51.06). Both of which were 100% legit drafts last season based on ADPs.

 

[butcher boy]

1. depends on your league scoring system

2. depends on your league starting lineup requirements

3. depends on how many teams in your league

4. depends on your draft spot in that league

5. depends on how well you know the other owners tendencies

6. depends on how good you are at playing the weekly matchup game at QB if you go QBBC ( I suck at it so I don't do it)

lot to be said for not having to try and navigate the weekly QB matchup game

not many safer picks with regard to injury than an elite QB early

personally I will take the weekly point advantage I get from drafting an elite QB early and take my chances of maintaining that advantage by drafting better then you for the rest of the draft at the other positions....

So your plan is to be better than everyone around you at drafting every position but QB. Got it. I've stated it before but imo having 1-2 elite RBs far outweighs the 1 elite QB strategy unless your league scoring is all over the place. Sure there's less injury concern for an elite QB and they have less down games. But the drop off from RB1 to RB15 is a lot more significant in my eyes than the drop off from QB1 to QB15.

Last years example:

RB1(eliteRB1): Adrian Peterson - 20.58ppg

RB8(midRB1): Trent Richardson - 14.34ppg

RB15 (midRB2): Steven Jackson - 11.35ppg

RB20(lowRB2): Mikel LeShoure - 10.58ppg

RB25(highRB3): Darren McFadden - 8.53ppg

-------

RB1-15 Difference: 9.22ppg

QB1: Drew Brees - 26.14ppg

QB8: Tony Romo - 21.94

QB15: Joe Flacco - 18.05ppg

------

QB1-15 Difference: 8.08ppg

Bear in mind in a 12 team league you're likely not ending up with the QB15 as your starter if you drafted well. You're definitely going to end up with a RB15 as your RB2 or RB3. The choice is yours whether you get a RB1 and a top level RB2/lowend RB1 as your second and pair it with a QB6-12. Or if you get a RB1 and a low end RB2 or RB3 and pair it with a QB1. Personally I just find the drop off much worse on the other end.

All I'm saying is I'll take Peterson and Richardson paired with Romo anyday last season over Brees with Richardson and LeShoure. (56.86ppg vs 51.06). Both of which were 100% legit drafts last season based on ADPs.

In terms of this year, you can get an early QB and still end up with 2 stud RB1s. "Drafting a QB early" this year means getting one in round 3 in most cases.

In response to your comment about last year, Peterson and Richardson were going in the second round, so you could've drafted a stud QB first and ended up with one of the two. Nobody was really drafting them in round 1. If your strategy last year was to get a RB in the first round, and you had a mid-late round pick, you likely picked a dud for your first pick. Plus there were many round 3-5 RBs who panned out a heck of a lot better than your example of LeShoure. A draft last year of Brees, Peterson, then somebody like Spiller or Martin (or both) was damn near ideal.

 

[Khy]

1. depends on your league scoring system

2. depends on your league starting lineup requirements

3. depends on how many teams in your league

4. depends on your draft spot in that league

5. depends on how well you know the other owners tendencies

6. depends on how good you are at playing the weekly matchup game at QB if you go QBBC ( I suck at it so I don't do it)

lot to be said for not having to try and navigate the weekly QB matchup game

not many safer picks with regard to injury than an elite QB early

personally I will take the weekly point advantage I get from drafting an elite QB early and take my chances of maintaining that advantage by drafting better then you for the rest of the draft at the other positions....

So your plan is to be better than everyone around you at drafting every position but QB. Got it. I've stated it before but imo having 1-2 elite RBs far outweighs the 1 elite QB strategy unless your league scoring is all over the place. Sure there's less injury concern for an elite QB and they have less down games. But the drop off from RB1 to RB15 is a lot more significant in my eyes than the drop off from QB1 to QB15.

Last years example:

RB1(eliteRB1): Adrian Peterson - 20.58ppg

RB8(midRB1): Trent Richardson - 14.34ppg

RB15 (midRB2): Steven Jackson - 11.35ppg

RB20(lowRB2): Mikel LeShoure - 10.58ppg

RB25(highRB3): Darren McFadden - 8.53ppg

-------

RB1-15 Difference: 9.22ppg

QB1: Drew Brees - 26.14ppg

QB8: Tony Romo - 21.94

QB15: Joe Flacco - 18.05ppg

------

QB1-15 Difference: 8.08ppg

Bear in mind in a 12 team league you're likely not ending up with the QB15 as your starter if you drafted well. You're definitely going to end up with a RB15 as your RB2 or RB3. The choice is yours whether you get a RB1 and a top level RB2/lowend RB1 as your second and pair it with a QB6-12. Or if you get a RB1 and a low end RB2 or RB3 and pair it with a QB1. Personally I just find the drop off much worse on the other end.

All I'm saying is I'll take Peterson and Richardson paired with Romo anyday last season over Brees with Richardson and LeShoure. (56.86ppg vs 51.06). Both of which were 100% legit drafts last season based on ADPs.

In terms of this year, you can get an early QB and still end up with 2 stud RB1s. "Drafting a QB early" this year means getting one in round 3 in most cases.

In response to your comment about last year, Peterson and Richardson were going in the second round, so you could've drafted a stud QB first and ended up with one of the two. Nobody was really drafting them in round 1. If your strategy last year was to get a RB in the first round, and you had a mid-late round pick, you likely picked a dud for your first pick. Plus there were many round 3-5 RBs who panned out a heck of a lot better than your example of LeShoure. A draft last year of Brees, Peterson, then somebody like Spiller or Martin (or both) was damn near ideal.

Oh no doubt, I was just giving the top few players of each position to prove the opposite of the point I keep reading. Which is that the average ppg difference between top level QBs to the lower level QBs is so much higher than that of the top level RBs to the lower level RBs. Which simply isn't true. You're all but guaranteed a Top 12 QB in a 12 team league at worst a Top 15 QB. The drop off from a #1 to #15 for QBs is severely worse than that of RB1-RB15. Which was my only real point, I'd rather get two of those top 15 RBs and not worry about a QB till later on. Granted a lot of this depends less on your league scoring and more the tendencies of your league members and how they draft. My league always ends up having a fire sale on QBs in the first round. Even if they didn't though I'd still probably try to employ this strategy. Obviously though if the best RB on the board is David Wilson in Round 2 and Brees, Manning and Rodgers are still sitting there I'm taking one of them. I'm not stupid. Just saying that once those 2-3 guys are gone (typically before the end of the second round) there is no reason to even bother drafting a QB until rather late.

 

[Anarchy99]

1. depends on your league scoring system

2. depends on your league starting lineup requirements

3. depends on how many teams in your league

4. depends on your draft spot in that league

5. depends on how well you know the other owners tendencies

6. depends on how good you are at playing the weekly matchup game at QB if you go QBBC ( I suck at it so I don't do it)

lot to be said for not having to try and navigate the weekly QB matchup game

not many safer picks with regard to injury than an elite QB early

personally I will take the weekly point advantage I get from drafting an elite QB early and take my chances of maintaining that advantage by drafting better then you for the rest of the draft at the other positions....

So your plan is to be better than everyone around you at drafting every position but QB. Got it. I've stated it before but imo having 1-2 elite RBs far outweighs the 1 elite QB strategy unless your league scoring is all over the place. Sure there's less injury concern for an elite QB and they have less down games. But the drop off from RB1 to RB15 is a lot more significant in my eyes than the drop off from QB1 to QB15.

Last years example:

RB1(eliteRB1): Adrian Peterson - 20.58ppg

RB8(midRB1): Trent Richardson - 14.34ppg

RB15 (midRB2): Steven Jackson - 11.35ppg

RB20(lowRB2): Mikel LeShoure - 10.58ppg

RB25(highRB3): Darren McFadden - 8.53ppg

-------

RB1-15 Difference: 9.22ppg

QB1: Drew Brees - 26.14ppg

QB8: Tony Romo - 21.94

QB15: Joe Flacco - 18.05ppg

------

QB1-15 Difference: 8.08ppg

Bear in mind in a 12 team league you're likely not ending up with the QB15 as your starter if you drafted well. You're definitely going to end up with a RB15 as your RB2 or RB3. The choice is yours whether you get a RB1 and a top level RB2/lowend RB1 as your second and pair it with a QB6-12. Or if you get a RB1 and a low end RB2 or RB3 and pair it with a QB1. Personally I just find the drop off much worse on the other end.

All I'm saying is I'll take Peterson and Richardson paired with Romo anyday last season over Brees with Richardson and LeShoure. (56.86ppg vs 51.06). Both of which were 100% legit drafts last season based on ADPs.

Your example is still flaVVed. You hit on the one complete total outlier (taking ADP) that happened to yield huge dividends. ANYONE that took Peterson had a huge advantage.

Put another way, a couple years ago you could have drafted Arian Foster in the 7th round. But I am not going to suggest that taking Brady or Brees in the first round was proven to be the only way to go because I ended up with Foster in the 7th round.

Let's run your same simulation and scenarios with the other RB options. To make life simple, eliminate Richardson, as his totals would be applicable to both teams.

Looking at one of my leagues, Brees scored 475 points last year. Romo scored 377 (and was drafted in the 5th round).

Other than Peterson, the RBs that were still available and taken anywhere near Brees were:

CJohnson 167

MJD 59

DMac 103

Charles 197

SJax 153

Murray 108

Turner 151

McCoy 140

Mathews 93

Lynch 239

Forte 170

Gore 188

So if someone ended up taking anyone but Peterson, it would have been next to impossible to make up the 98 points difference in scoring from Brees to Romo.

So, sure, in hindsight, taking Petersen over Brees or another elite QB in the late first or second rounds would have turned out better. But that was about the only scenario where that would have been the case (in this particular league). And who really expected post ACL surgery that ADP would have a career year? Not many people.

 

[kutta]

1. depends on your league scoring system

2. depends on your league starting lineup requirements

3. depends on how many teams in your league

4. depends on your draft spot in that league

5. depends on how well you know the other owners tendencies

6. depends on how good you are at playing the weekly matchup game at QB if you go QBBC ( I suck at it so I don't do it)

lot to be said for not having to try and navigate the weekly QB matchup game

not many safer picks with regard to injury than an elite QB early

personally I will take the weekly point advantage I get from drafting an elite QB early and take my chances of maintaining that advantage by drafting better then you for the rest of the draft at the other positions....

So your plan is to be better than everyone around you at drafting every position but QB. Got it. I've stated it before but imo having 1-2 elite RBs far outweighs the 1 elite QB strategy unless your league scoring is all over the place. Sure there's less injury concern for an elite QB and they have less down games. But the drop off from RB1 to RB15 is a lot more significant in my eyes than the drop off from QB1 to QB15.

Last years example:

RB1(eliteRB1): Adrian Peterson - 20.58ppg

RB8(midRB1): Trent Richardson - 14.34ppg

RB15 (midRB2): Steven Jackson - 11.35ppg

RB20(lowRB2): Mikel LeShoure - 10.58ppg

RB25(highRB3): Darren McFadden - 8.53ppg

-------

RB1-15 Difference: 9.22ppg

QB1: Drew Brees - 26.14ppg

QB8: Tony Romo - 21.94

QB15: Joe Flacco - 18.05ppg

------

QB1-15 Difference: 8.08ppg

Bear in mind in a 12 team league you're likely not ending up with the QB15 as your starter if you drafted well. You're definitely going to end up with a RB15 as your RB2 or RB3. The choice is yours whether you get a RB1 and a top level RB2/lowend RB1 as your second and pair it with a QB6-12. Or if you get a RB1 and a low end RB2 or RB3 and pair it with a QB1. Personally I just find the drop off much worse on the other end.

All I'm saying is I'll take Peterson and Richardson paired with Romo anyday last season over Brees with Richardson and LeShoure. (56.86ppg vs 51.06). Both of which were 100% legit drafts last season based on ADPs.

Your example is still flaVVed. You hit on the one complete total outlier (taking ADP) that happened to yield huge dividends. ANYONE that took Peterson had a huge advantage.

Put another way, a couple years ago you could have drafted Arian Foster in the 7th round. But I am not going to suggest that taking Brady or Brees in the first round was proven to be the only way to go because I ended up with Foster in the 7th round.

Let's run your same simulation and scenarios with the other RB options. To make life simple, eliminate Richardson, as his totals would be applicable to both teams.

Looking at one of my leagues, Brees scored 475 points last year. Romo scored 377 (and was drafted in the 5th round).

Other than Peterson, the RBs that were still available and taken anywhere near Brees were:

CJohnson 167

MJD 59

DMac 103

Charles 197

SJax 153

Murray 108

Turner 151

McCoy 140

Mathews 93

Lynch 239

Forte 170

Gore 188

So if someone ended up taking anyone but Peterson, it would have been next to impossible to make up the 98 points difference in scoring from Brees to Romo.

So, sure, in hindsight, taking Petersen over Brees or another elite QB in the late first or second rounds would have turned out better. But that was about the only scenario where that would have been the case (in this particular league). And who really expected post ACL surgery that ADP would have a career year? Not many people.

It comes down to the fact (sort of) that we all are 100% certain (or very close to that) of who the top 3 or 4 QB's will be. Brees, Brady, Rogers, and Manning are going to put up huge points. It's a lock.

There is no such guarantee with the RB's. There just isn't. There is so much variance and things change year to year. Sure, AP and Foster should be picks 1 and 2. those guys are solid. But we are talking about who to take with 1.06 or 1.09 or 1.12. Do you gamble on a RB who may or may not finish in the top 5, or do you take a QB that you know will finish in the top 3 or 4?

 

[We Tigers]

It comes down to the fact (sort of) that we all are 100% certain (or very close to that) of who the top 3 or 4 QB's will be. Brees, Brady, Rogers, and Manning are going to put up huge points. It's a lock. There is no such guarantee with the RB's. There just isn't. There is so much variance and things change year to year. Sure, AP and Foster should be picks 1 and 2. those guys are solid. But we are talking about who to take with 1.06 or 1.09 or 1.12. Do you gamble on a RB who may or may not finish in the top 5, or do you take a QB that you know will finish in the top 3 or 4?

I think there's a little less distinction between QBs and RBs here than conventional wisdom dictates. We all assume Brees, Brady, Rodgers, and Manning will be worth huge points because of their past performance. However, you could say the same thing for several running backs, including Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, and Jamaal Charles.Three of those guys have been starters for at least four years, and one for three, and all four have landed in the top ten RBs in every one of those seasons--with the exception of Charles missing 2011 due to injury, and Peterson landing at around RB12 the same year after missing 4 games. Four guys, sixteen seasons between them, and only one real disaster. While the RB position is certainly volatile--lots of turnover between top ten backs, higher frequency of injury than QBs--I don't think there's nearly as much distinction between the idea of taking a consistent, elite QB vs. a consistent, elite RB, nor are you mitigating a significant amount of risk by selecting a QB.I know these are all early 1st round ADP guys whereas some of these QBs may slip into the 2nd (I don't really believe any will regularly make it to the third by the time real drafts are happening). The value argument I'm making may be better suited to an auction draft, where draft order doesn't matter, and your big question is more whether you should drop 1/3 of your budget on Rodgers or Ray Rice.

 

[Anarchy99]

It comes down to the fact (sort of) that we all are 100% certain (or very close to that) of who the top 3 or 4 QB's will be. Brees, Brady, Rogers, and Manning are going to put up huge points. It's a lock. There is no such guarantee with the RB's. There just isn't. There is so much variance and things change year to year. Sure, AP and Foster should be picks 1 and 2. those guys are solid. But we are talking about who to take with 1.06 or 1.09 or 1.12. Do you gamble on a RB who may or may not finish in the top 5, or do you take a QB that you know will finish in the top 3 or 4?

I think there's a little less distinction between QBs and RBs here than conventional wisdom dictates. We all assume Brees, Brady, Rodgers, and Manning will be worth huge points because of their past performance. However, you could say the same thing for several running backs, including Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, and Jamaal Charles.Three of those guys have been starters for at least four years, and one for three, and all four have landed in the top ten RBs in every one of those seasons--with the exception of Charles missing 2011 due to injury, and Peterson landing at around RB12 the same year after missing 4 games. Four guys, sixteen seasons between them, and only one real disaster. While the RB position is certainly volatile--lots of turnover between top ten backs, higher frequency of injury than QBs--I don't think there's nearly as much distinction between the idea of taking a consistent, elite QB vs. a consistent, elite RB, nor are you mitigating a significant amount of risk by selecting a QB.I know these are all early 1st round ADP guys whereas some of these QBs may slip into the 2nd (I don't really believe any will regularly make it to the third by the time real drafts are happening). The value argument I'm making may be better suited to an auction draft, where draft order doesn't matter, and your big question is more whether you should drop 1/3 of your budget on Rodgers or Ray Rice.

I think you are missing that most folks would take the tried and true elite RB over a QB uber early in drafts. The issue is who to take when the Fosters, Rices, Petersons, and Charles of the world are already drafted. Who do you take at 1.08 . . . 1.10 . . . 1.12 when those guys are long gone?

 

[Khy]

It comes down to the fact (sort of) that we all are 100% certain (or very close to that) of who the top 3 or 4 QB's will be. Brees, Brady, Rogers, and Manning are going to put up huge points. It's a lock. There is no such guarantee with the RB's. There just isn't. There is so much variance and things change year to year. Sure, AP and Foster should be picks 1 and 2. those guys are solid. But we are talking about who to take with 1.06 or 1.09 or 1.12. Do you gamble on a RB who may or may not finish in the top 5, or do you take a QB that you know will finish in the top 3 or 4?

I think there's a little less distinction between QBs and RBs here than conventional wisdom dictates. We all assume Brees, Brady, Rodgers, and Manning will be worth huge points because of their past performance. However, you could say the same thing for several running backs, including Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, and Jamaal Charles.Three of those guys have been starters for at least four years, and one for three, and all four have landed in the top ten RBs in every one of those seasons--with the exception of Charles missing 2011 due to injury, and Peterson landing at around RB12 the same year after missing 4 games. Four guys, sixteen seasons between them, and only one real disaster. While the RB position is certainly volatile--lots of turnover between top ten backs, higher frequency of injury than QBs--I don't think there's nearly as much distinction between the idea of taking a consistent, elite QB vs. a consistent, elite RB, nor are you mitigating a significant amount of risk by selecting a QB.I know these are all early 1st round ADP guys whereas some of these QBs may slip into the 2nd (I don't really believe any will regularly make it to the third by the time real drafts are happening). The value argument I'm making may be better suited to an auction draft, where draft order doesn't matter, and your big question is more whether you should drop 1/3 of your budget on Rodgers or Ray Rice.

I think you are missing that most folks would take the tried and true elite RB over a QB uber early in drafts. The issue is who to take when the Fosters, Rices, Petersons, and Charles of the world are already drafted. Who do you take at 1.08 . . . 1.10 . . . 1.12 when those guys are long gone?

McCoy, Lynch, Richardson, Martin, Spiller. I'm taking all of them as well as the guys you mentioned before I'm taking Rodgers or Brees. So that gets you to 1.09. Even then I'm probably still taking Calvin before them at 1.10 and would have to think hard about not taking AJ Green, Jimmy Graham, Alfred Morris, Julio Jones and Dez Bryant over them as well.

 

[donkshow]

I just hope I pick at the 12/13 turn and I can take Rodgers/Spiller (based on FBG ADP) then follow that up with Bush/Cobb or something.

 

[Khy]

I just hope I pick at the 12/13 turn and I can take Rodgers/Spiller (based on FBG ADP) then follow that up with Bush/Cobb or something.

Yeah... I mean I just don't see myself taking Rodgers/Brees/Manning earlier than the 2nd Round. As I said above I easily have 12 guys I put above them. The one year I drafted a big name QB my team was terrible. Every year I just wait around and do great. So call it superstition but I'm sticking with it. Everyone keeps saying "You know that Rodgers,Brees, Manning and Brady are elite and will be elite" but I also "know" that the floor for Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Andrew Luck and crew is something super solid. Their ceiling is just as high as that elite group but their floor isn't that much better.

Where as the only guys with an elite floor at the RB position are Peterson, Martin, McCoy, Charles, Richardson, Rice, Lynch, Spiller. If I can get one of these guys (or possibly two if I manage to get super lucky) and pair it with one of the WRs with an elite floor Calvin, AJ Green, Marshall, Julio, Dez or TE in Graham. Then I feel like my first two rounds ended as good as humanly possible. If my Round 1 and Round 2 say two of those 12 names. I feel a lot better than having one of those names and Rodgers next to the other. Maybe it's the wrong way to see things but I want the RB and WR with elite floor because so few exist with it and the difference between WR and RB elite floor to good floor is far worse than that of QB elite floor to good floor.

 

[Anarchy99]

Based on the FBG scoring system, their VBD values across the past 3 years (adding up each individual year) are as follows. I admit, that methodology itself is very flawed, but at least it's something to discuss. For one, not all players have played 3 seasons. For another, players that miss time will be hard pressed to earn VBD scores. And another still is that there are no negative values if someone played poorly . . . players either get positive scores or get a 0 score for that particular season.

As expected, the top guys are the usual suspects. But it is interesting that only 25 players managed to have a positive score for all 3 seasons ([SIZE=small]Arian Foster, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Adrian Peterson, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Chris Johnson, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Tom Brady, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]LeSean McCoy, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Roddy White, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Aaron Rodgers, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Michael Turner, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Matt Forte, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Ray Rice, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Mike Wallace, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Calvin Johnson, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Ahmad Bradshaw, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Steven Jackson, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Drew Brees, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Jason Witten, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Reggie Wayne, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Steve Johnson, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Marques Colston, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Matt Ryan, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Frank Gore, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Rob Gronkowski, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Wes Welker, [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Tony Gonzalez, and [/SIZE][SIZE=small]Brandon Marshall).[/SIZE]

[SIZE=small] [/SIZE]

Arian Foster	        446Aaron Rodgers	        391Drew Brees	        382Tom Brady	        357Adrian Peterson	        335Ray Rice	        332Calvin Johnson	        327LeSean McCoy	        249Rob Gronkowski	        211Cam Newton	        208Roddy White	        202Marshawn Lynch	        202Jamaal Charles	        195Michael Turner	        188Chris Johnson	        181Maurice Jones-Drew	181Matthew Stafford	174Wes Welker	        162Matt Forte	        162Jimmy Graham	        156Matt Ryan	        153Peyton Manning	        149Doug Martin	        145Brandon Marshall	143Mike Wallace	        143Victor Cruz	        143Steven Jackson	        136Frank Gore	        133Marques Colston	        130Alfred Morris	        127A.J. Green	        123Dez Bryant	        122Vincent Jackson	        122Dwayne Bowe	        120Philip Rivers	        119Ahmad Bradshaw	        118Andre Johnson	        118Greg Jennings	        114Jason Witten	        111Peyton Hillis	        106Larry Fitzgerald	105Reggie Wayne	        104Brandon Lloyd	        103Tony Romo	        103Jordy Nelson	        100C.J. Spiller	        99Steve Johnson	        98Rashard Mendenhall	98Eli Manning	        97Hakeem Nicks	        97Julio Jones	        97Steve Smith	        96Reggie Bush	        89Darren McFadden	        88BenJarvus Green-Ellis	86Demaryius Thomas	86Stevan Ridley	        84Trent Richardson	84Tony Gonzalez	        82Mike Williams	        81Percy Harvin	        79Michael Vick	        72Eric Decker	        66Antonio Gates	        65Shonn Greene	        64Darren Sproles	        57Miles Austin	        56Vernon Davis	        54Robert Griffin III	53Jeremy Maclin	        52DeSean Jackson	        49Michael Crabtree	47James Jones	        44Fred Jackson	        43Ryan Mathews	        42Aaron Hernandez	        41Cedric Benson	        41Michael Bush	        39Randall Cobb	        38Laurent Robinson	36Mikel Leshoure	        36Nate Washington	        35Terrell Owens	        35Heath Miller	        34Marcedes Lewis	        34Andrew Luck	        31Mario Manningham	31Santana Moss	        30Torrey Smith	        30Josh Freeman	        28Lance Moore	        28Jermichael Finley	27Mike Tolbert	        27LaDainian Tomlinson	26Mark Sanchez	        26Knowshon Moreno	        25Matt Schaub	        24Cecil Shorts	        21Chris Wells	        21Greg Olsen	        19Dustin Keller	        17Pierre Garcon	        17Russell Wilson	        16Braylon Edwards	        15DeAngelo Williams	15Brent Celek	        14Kenny Britt	        14Dennis Pitta	        13Owen Daniels	        12T.Y. Hilton	        12Antonio Brown	        11Brandon Pettigrew	10Brandon Myers	        9Jabar Gaffney	        9Johnny Knox	        9Anquan Boldin	        8Jermaine Gresham	8Kyle Rudolph	        8Chris Cooley	        7Joe Flacco	        7Kellen Winslow	        7Willis McGahee	        6Darrius Heyward-Bey	5Derrick Mason	        5Brandon Jacobs	        4Jahvid Best	        3Zach Miller	        2

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Your toast if you go Dalton/Alex Smith committee.

You may as well forfeit the 2013 season and try again next year. Or find a new hobby.

 

[LususV]

Your toast if you go Dalton/Alex Smith committee. You may as well forfeit the 2013 season and try again next year. Or find a new hobby.

I wouldn't do that in my main leagues, but now I think I have to in a throwaway $25 redraft, lol.

 

[butcher boy]

Your toast if you go Dalton/Alex Smith committee.

You may as well forfeit the 2013 season and try again next year. Or find a new hobby.

This reminds of the days FBG used to tout drafting Garrard.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

And never mention the fact you have to pick the right guy to start in a given week.

Kind of a small detail to omit.

 

[Dragon1952]

Your toast if you go Dalton/Alex Smith committee.

You may as well forfeit the 2013 season and try again next year. Or find a new hobby.

That was never suggested. It goes back to my first post which was possibly poorly worded but I clarified it later. Alex Smith's name was mentioned as a good possibility of performing well above his ADP as part of a QBBC. Dalton was mentioned as a QB1 who could perform well above his ADP. I think he has a shot to get within the top 8 QB's and/or be very comparable on a ppg basis to any QB after top 3 considering through Week 16 last year he was just 4 ppg shy of #3QB Cam Newton and just 4.5 ppg shy of #2 Aaron Rodgers (he didn't complete the game Week 17 otherwise it drops him another .5 ppg or so). Those stats are assuming 4 pt per passing TD and .05pts per yd. But even in 6 pt per passing TD he was still just 4 ppg shy of QB4.

Through Week 16 2013, 4 pt passing TD, .05 pt per passing yard, total pts/ppg avg1. Brees, Drew NOS QB 382.55 25.5032. Brady, Tom NEP QB 374.35 24.957 3. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 366.30 24.420 4. Griffin III, Robert WAS 340.30 24.307

5. Newton, Cam CAR QB 362.35 24.157 6. Ryan, Matt ATL QB 350.75 23.383 7. Manning, Peyton DEN QB 343.45 22.897 8. Romo, Tony DAL QB 333.05 22.2039. Luck, Andrew IND QB 325.55 21.703 10. Stafford, Matthew DET 323.75 21.58311. Dalton, Andy CIN QB 299.15 19.943

I think it's more likely Dalton improves and moves closer on a ppg average than the top 3 improving and widening the gap (or Dalton regressing) considering the Pats turnover of personnel in the passing game, the fact GB should be more run oriented (or would like to be). Brees is another story and I don't know there but I think many are expecting a similar year at best. And, in fact, QB's 7-11 on this list are all very likely to close the gap on the top half of the group IMO.

 

[LususV]

And never mention the fact you have to pick the right guy to start in a given week. Kind of a small detail to omit.

Schedule usually dictates the start. It's rarely difficult.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

And never mention the fact you have to pick the right guy to start in a given week.

Kind of a small detail to omit.

Schedule usually dictates the start. It's rarely difficult.

you have to pick the right guy to start in a given week.

And that's why you see the writers doing their articles in hindsight in the 'ideal scenario'.

Your toast if you go Dalton/Alex Smith committee.

You may as well forfeit the 2013 season and try again next year. Or find a new hobby.

That was never suggested. It goes back to my first post which was possibly poorly worded but I clarified it later. Alex Smith's name was mentioned as a good possibility of performing well above his ADP as part of a QBBC. Dalton was mentioned as a QB1 who could perform well above his ADP. I think he has a shot to get within the top 8 QB's and/or be very comparable on a ppg basis to any QB after top 3 considering through Week 16 last year he was just 4 ppg shy of #3QB Cam Newton and just 4.5 ppg shy of #2 Aaron Rodgers (he didn't complete the game Week 17 otherwise it drops him another .5 ppg or so). Those stats are assuming 4 pt per passing TD and .05pts per yd. But even in 6 pt per passing TD he was still just 4 ppg shy of QB4.

Through Week 16 2013, 4 pt passing TD, .05 pt per passing yard, total pts/ppg avg

1. Brees, Drew NOS QB 382.55 25.503

2. Brady, Tom NEP QB 374.35 24.957

3. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 366.30 24.420

4. Newton, Cam CAR QB 362.35 24.157

5. Ryan, Matt ATL QB 350.75 23.383

6. Manning, Peyton DEN QB 343.45 22.897

7. Griffin III, Robert WAS 340.30 24.307

8. Romo, Tony DAL QB 333.05 22.203

9. Luck, Andrew IND QB 325.55 21.703

10. Stafford, Matthew DET 323.75 21.583

11. Dalton, Andy CIN QB 299.15 19.943

I think it's more likely Dalton improves and moves closer on a ppg average than the top 3 improving and widening the gap (or Dalton regressing) considering the Pats turnover of personnel in the passing game, the fact GB should be more run oriented (or would like to be). Brees is another story and I don't know there but I think many are expecting a similar year at best. And, in fact, QB's 7-11 on this list are all very likely to close the gap on the top half of the group IMO.

I think we'll agree to disagree with Dalton. QB11 IMO will likely go down as his best career finish. I see Russell Wilson/Kaep (at the minimum) finishing ahead of Dalton. That's not counting Eli/Big Ben/Rivers and a host of others. At this point, you're talking no less than 12 QB's IMO superior to Dalton. It's fair to say you think much more highly of Dalton than I ever will.

If you want to put this QBBC theory with Dalton to the test with a 2013 experiment, I would really enjoy seeing how it turns out week-2-week. Announcing each week who is starting.

On the otherhand, I don't want to see another one of these hindsight QBBC articles after the season saying 'what could have been'. I want to know who was picked. I don't want to hear after the season (or next offseason) 'picking a QB is easy'. Any schmoe can say that.

The last statement/paragraph wasn't directed at you. I really think many of these QBBC articles in retrospect are trash. I'd rather see it put to the test.

 

[butcher boy]

On the otherhand, I don't want to see another one of these hindsight QBBC articles after the season saying 'what could have been'. I want to know who was picked. I don't want to hear after the season (or next offseason) 'picking a QB is easy'. Any schmoe can say that.

The last statement/paragraph wasn't directed at you. I really think many of these QBBC articles in retrospect are trash. I'd rather see it put to the test.

Anyone who can successfully pick the better performance all 17 weeks belongs in Vegas, not playing fantasy football.

 

[Dragon1952]

And never mention the fact you have to pick the right guy to start in a given week.

Kind of a small detail to omit.

Schedule usually dictates the start. It's rarely difficult.

you have to pick the right guy to start in a given week.

And that's why you see the writers doing their articles in hindsight in the 'ideal scenario'.

Your toast if you go Dalton/Alex Smith committee.

You may as well forfeit the 2013 season and try again next year. Or find a new hobby.

That was never suggested. It goes back to my first post which was possibly poorly worded but I clarified it later. Alex Smith's name was mentioned as a good possibility of performing well above his ADP as part of a QBBC. Dalton was mentioned as a QB1 who could perform well above his ADP. I think he has a shot to get within the top 8 QB's and/or be very comparable on a ppg basis to any QB after top 3 considering through Week 16 last year he was just 4 ppg shy of #3QB Cam Newton and just 4.5 ppg shy of #2 Aaron Rodgers (he didn't complete the game Week 17 otherwise it drops him another .5 ppg or so). Those stats are assuming 4 pt per passing TD and .05pts per yd. But even in 6 pt per passing TD he was still just 4 ppg shy of QB4.

Through Week 16 2013, 4 pt passing TD, .05 pt per passing yard, total pts/ppg avg

1. Brees, Drew NOS QB 382.55 25.503

2. Brady, Tom NEP QB 374.35 24.957

3. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 366.30 24.420

4. Newton, Cam CAR QB 362.35 24.157

5. Ryan, Matt ATL QB 350.75 23.383

6. Manning, Peyton DEN QB 343.45 22.897

7. Griffin III, Robert WAS 340.30 24.307

8. Romo, Tony DAL QB 333.05 22.203

9. Luck, Andrew IND QB 325.55 21.703

10. Stafford, Matthew DET 323.75 21.583

11. Dalton, Andy CIN QB 299.15 19.943

I think it's more likely Dalton improves and moves closer on a ppg average than the top 3 improving and widening the gap (or Dalton regressing) considering the Pats turnover of personnel in the passing game, the fact GB should be more run oriented (or would like to be). Brees is another story and I don't know there but I think many are expecting a similar year at best. And, in fact, QB's 7-11 on this list are all very likely to close the gap on the top half of the group IMO.

I think we'll agree to disagree with Dalton. QB11 IMO will likely go down as his best career finish. I see Russell Wilson/Kaep (at the minimum) finishing ahead of Dalton. That's not counting Eli/Big Ben/Rivers and a host of others. At this point, you're talking no less than 12 QB's IMO superior to Dalton. It's fair to say you think much more highly of Dalton than I ever will.

If you want to put this QBBC theory with Dalton to the test with a 2013 experiment, I would really enjoy seeing how it turns out week-2-week. Announcing each week who is starting.

On the otherhand, I don't want to see another one of these hindsight QBBC articles after the season saying 'what could have been'. I want to know who was picked. I don't want to hear after the season (or next offseason) 'picking a QB is easy'. Any schmoe can say that.

The last statement/paragraph wasn't directed at you. I really think many of these QBBC articles in retrospect are trash. I'd rather see it put to the test.

Just to clarify (again)....I'm not saying QBBC.

 

[donkshow]

I just hope I pick at the 12/13 turn and I can take Rodgers/Spiller (based on FBG ADP) then follow that up with Bush/Cobb or something.

Yeah... I mean I just don't see myself taking Rodgers/Brees/Manning earlier than the 2nd Round. As I said above I easily have 12 guys I put above them. The one year I drafted a big name QB my team was terrible. Every year I just wait around and do great. So call it superstition but I'm sticking with it. Everyone keeps saying "You know that Rodgers,Brees, Manning and Brady are elite and will be elite" but I also "know" that the floor for Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Andrew Luck and crew is something super solid. Their ceiling is just as high as that elite group but their floor isn't that much better.

Where as the only guys with an elite floor at the RB position are Peterson, Martin, McCoy, Charles, Richardson, Rice, Lynch, Spiller. If I can get one of these guys (or possibly two if I manage to get super lucky) and pair it with one of the WRs with an elite floor Calvin, AJ Green, Marshall, Julio, Dez or TE in Graham. Then I feel like my first two rounds ended as good as humanly possible. If my Round 1 and Round 2 say two of those 12 names. I feel a lot better than having one of those names and Rodgers next to the other. Maybe it's the wrong way to see things but I want the RB and WR with elite floor because so few exist with it and the difference between WR and RB elite floor to good floor is far worse than that of QB elite floor to good floor.

I personally have never owned Rodgers/Brees/Brady in any league in the last few years since they became the Top 3. Owned Manning a couple times, but only because I was a Colts fan not because I was a 'get a QB early' fan.

I doubt I do it again this year, but I wouldn't mind giving it a shot just to see how the rest of my team goes.

 

[LususV]

And never mention the fact you have to pick the right guy to start in a given week.

Kind of a small detail to omit.

Schedule usually dictates the start. It's rarely difficult.

you have to pick the right guy to start in a given week.

And that's why you see the writers doing their articles in hindsight in the 'ideal scenario'.

Your toast if you go Dalton/Alex Smith committee.

You may as well forfeit the 2013 season and try again next year. Or find a new hobby.

That was never suggested. It goes back to my first post which was possibly poorly worded but I clarified it later. Alex Smith's name was mentioned as a good possibility of performing well above his ADP as part of a QBBC. Dalton was mentioned as a QB1 who could perform well above his ADP. I think he has a shot to get within the top 8 QB's and/or be very comparable on a ppg basis to any QB after top 3 considering through Week 16 last year he was just 4 ppg shy of #3QB Cam Newton and just 4.5 ppg shy of #2 Aaron Rodgers (he didn't complete the game Week 17 otherwise it drops him another .5 ppg or so). Those stats are assuming 4 pt per passing TD and .05pts per yd. But even in 6 pt per passing TD he was still just 4 ppg shy of QB4.

Through Week 16 2013, 4 pt passing TD, .05 pt per passing yard, total pts/ppg avg

1. Brees, Drew NOS QB 382.55 25.503

2. Brady, Tom NEP QB 374.35 24.957

3. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 366.30 24.420

4. Newton, Cam CAR QB 362.35 24.157

5. Ryan, Matt ATL QB 350.75 23.383

6. Manning, Peyton DEN QB 343.45 22.897

7. Griffin III, Robert WAS 340.30 24.307

8. Romo, Tony DAL QB 333.05 22.203

9. Luck, Andrew IND QB 325.55 21.703

10. Stafford, Matthew DET 323.75 21.583

11. Dalton, Andy CIN QB 299.15 19.943

I think it's more likely Dalton improves and moves closer on a ppg average than the top 3 improving and widening the gap (or Dalton regressing) considering the Pats turnover of personnel in the passing game, the fact GB should be more run oriented (or would like to be). Brees is another story and I don't know there but I think many are expecting a similar year at best. And, in fact, QB's 7-11 on this list are all very likely to close the gap on the top half of the group IMO.

I think we'll agree to disagree with Dalton. QB11 IMO will likely go down as his best career finish. I see Russell Wilson/Kaep (at the minimum) finishing ahead of Dalton. That's not counting Eli/Big Ben/Rivers and a host of others. At this point, you're talking no less than 12 QB's IMO superior to Dalton. It's fair to say you think much more highly of Dalton than I ever will.

If you want to put this QBBC theory with Dalton to the test with a 2013 experiment, I would really enjoy seeing how it turns out week-2-week. Announcing each week who is starting.

On the otherhand, I don't want to see another one of these hindsight QBBC articles after the season saying 'what could have been'. I want to know who was picked. I don't want to hear after the season (or next offseason) 'picking a QB is easy'. Any schmoe can say that.

The last statement/paragraph wasn't directed at you. I really think many of these QBBC articles in retrospect are trash. I'd rather see it put to the test.

How about I predict all of the QBBC's that have a >50% chance of outscoring all of Brees/Rodgers/Manning/Brady and we evaluate at the end of the season? I reserve the right to update as late as week 3 of the preseason, but I'll stick by my predictions (and will likely use some of them in my leagues).

 

[Anarchy99]

And never mention the fact you have to pick the right guy to start in a given week.

Kind of a small detail to omit.

Schedule usually dictates the start. It's rarely difficult.

you have to pick the right guy to start in a given week.

And that's why you see the writers doing their articles in hindsight in the 'ideal scenario'.

Your toast if you go Dalton/Alex Smith committee.

You may as well forfeit the 2013 season and try again next year. Or find a new hobby.

That was never suggested. It goes back to my first post which was possibly poorly worded but I clarified it later. Alex Smith's name was mentioned as a good possibility of performing well above his ADP as part of a QBBC. Dalton was mentioned as a QB1 who could perform well above his ADP. I think he has a shot to get within the top 8 QB's and/or be very comparable on a ppg basis to any QB after top 3 considering through Week 16 last year he was just 4 ppg shy of #3QB Cam Newton and just 4.5 ppg shy of #2 Aaron Rodgers (he didn't complete the game Week 17 otherwise it drops him another .5 ppg or so). Those stats are assuming 4 pt per passing TD and .05pts per yd. But even in 6 pt per passing TD he was still just 4 ppg shy of QB4.

Through Week 16 2013, 4 pt passing TD, .05 pt per passing yard, total pts/ppg avg

1. Brees, Drew NOS QB 382.55 25.503

2. Brady, Tom NEP QB 374.35 24.957

3. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 366.30 24.420

4. Newton, Cam CAR QB 362.35 24.157

5. Ryan, Matt ATL QB 350.75 23.383

6. Manning, Peyton DEN QB 343.45 22.897

7. Griffin III, Robert WAS 340.30 24.307

8. Romo, Tony DAL QB 333.05 22.203

9. Luck, Andrew IND QB 325.55 21.703

10. Stafford, Matthew DET 323.75 21.583

11. Dalton, Andy CIN QB 299.15 19.943

I think it's more likely Dalton improves and moves closer on a ppg average than the top 3 improving and widening the gap (or Dalton regressing) considering the Pats turnover of personnel in the passing game, the fact GB should be more run oriented (or would like to be). Brees is another story and I don't know there but I think many are expecting a similar year at best. And, in fact, QB's 7-11 on this list are all very likely to close the gap on the top half of the group IMO.

I think we'll agree to disagree with Dalton. QB11 IMO will likely go down as his best career finish. I see Russell Wilson/Kaep (at the minimum) finishing ahead of Dalton. That's not counting Eli/Big Ben/Rivers and a host of others. At this point, you're talking no less than 12 QB's IMO superior to Dalton. It's fair to say you think much more highly of Dalton than I ever will.

If you want to put this QBBC theory with Dalton to the test with a 2013 experiment, I would really enjoy seeing how it turns out week-2-week. Announcing each week who is starting.

On the otherhand, I don't want to see another one of these hindsight QBBC articles after the season saying 'what could have been'. I want to know who was picked. I don't want to hear after the season (or next offseason) 'picking a QB is easy'. Any schmoe can say that.

The last statement/paragraph wasn't directed at you. I really think many of these QBBC articles in retrospect are trash. I'd rather see it put to the test.

How about I predict all of the QBBC's that have a >50% chance of outscoring all of Brees/Rodgers/Manning/Brady and we evaluate at the end of the season? I reserve the right to update as late as week 3 of the preseason, but I'll stick by my predictions (and will likely use some of them in my leagues).

So how would that work, exactly? IMO, there would have to be some parameters . . . ie, the QBBC guys would have to be drafted past a certain point in the draft to be eligible. Also, there should be a limit on how many QBs you could take AND you would have to preannounce who you would be starting each week.

So you couldn't pick a 5-headed QBBC and then take the highest scoring QB each week after the season. You would have to pick one before hand.

 

[LususV]

And never mention the fact you have to pick the right guy to start in a given week.

Kind of a small detail to omit.

Schedule usually dictates the start. It's rarely difficult.

you have to pick the right guy to start in a given week.

And that's why you see the writers doing their articles in hindsight in the 'ideal scenario'.

Your toast if you go Dalton/Alex Smith committee.

You may as well forfeit the 2013 season and try again next year. Or find a new hobby.

That was never suggested. It goes back to my first post which was possibly poorly worded but I clarified it later. Alex Smith's name was mentioned as a good possibility of performing well above his ADP as part of a QBBC. Dalton was mentioned as a QB1 who could perform well above his ADP. I think he has a shot to get within the top 8 QB's and/or be very comparable on a ppg basis to any QB after top 3 considering through Week 16 last year he was just 4 ppg shy of #3QB Cam Newton and just 4.5 ppg shy of #2 Aaron Rodgers (he didn't complete the game Week 17 otherwise it drops him another .5 ppg or so). Those stats are assuming 4 pt per passing TD and .05pts per yd. But even in 6 pt per passing TD he was still just 4 ppg shy of QB4.

Through Week 16 2013, 4 pt passing TD, .05 pt per passing yard, total pts/ppg avg

1. Brees, Drew NOS QB 382.55 25.503

2. Brady, Tom NEP QB 374.35 24.957

3. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 366.30 24.420

4. Newton, Cam CAR QB 362.35 24.157

5. Ryan, Matt ATL QB 350.75 23.383

6. Manning, Peyton DEN QB 343.45 22.897

7. Griffin III, Robert WAS 340.30 24.307

8. Romo, Tony DAL QB 333.05 22.203

9. Luck, Andrew IND QB 325.55 21.703

10. Stafford, Matthew DET 323.75 21.583

11. Dalton, Andy CIN QB 299.15 19.943

I think it's more likely Dalton improves and moves closer on a ppg average than the top 3 improving and widening the gap (or Dalton regressing) considering the Pats turnover of personnel in the passing game, the fact GB should be more run oriented (or would like to be). Brees is another story and I don't know there but I think many are expecting a similar year at best. And, in fact, QB's 7-11 on this list are all very likely to close the gap on the top half of the group IMO.

I think we'll agree to disagree with Dalton. QB11 IMO will likely go down as his best career finish. I see Russell Wilson/Kaep (at the minimum) finishing ahead of Dalton. That's not counting Eli/Big Ben/Rivers and a host of others. At this point, you're talking no less than 12 QB's IMO superior to Dalton. It's fair to say you think much more highly of Dalton than I ever will.

If you want to put this QBBC theory with Dalton to the test with a 2013 experiment, I would really enjoy seeing how it turns out week-2-week. Announcing each week who is starting.

On the otherhand, I don't want to see another one of these hindsight QBBC articles after the season saying 'what could have been'. I want to know who was picked. I don't want to hear after the season (or next offseason) 'picking a QB is easy'. Any schmoe can say that.

The last statement/paragraph wasn't directed at you. I really think many of these QBBC articles in retrospect are trash. I'd rather see it put to the test.

How about I predict all of the QBBC's that have a >50% chance of outscoring all of Brees/Rodgers/Manning/Brady and we evaluate at the end of the season? I reserve the right to update as late as week 3 of the preseason, but I'll stick by my predictions (and will likely use some of them in my leagues).

So how would that work, exactly? IMO, there would have to be some parameters . . . ie, the QBBC guys would have to be drafted past a certain point in the draft to be eligible. Also, there should be a limit on how many QBs you could take AND you would have to preannounce who you would be starting each week.

So you couldn't pick a 5-headed QBBC and then take the highest scoring QB each week after the season. You would have to pick one before hand.

I'm looking at 2-3 headed QBBCs, and will predict the QBs to start every week, weeks 1-16. This can be evaluated each week and at year end. I'll assume the average of the next 6 QBs by ADP not drafted as part of for the bye-week QBs (for example, for Brady's bye week in week 10, assuming none of the following belong in my QBBC, I'll, average Roethlisberger, Dalton, Locker, Freeman, Rivers, Eli) for the top 4 QBs. (this isn't fixed, feel free to suggest an alternative). I'm looking at the following 4 scoring systems: 20 yards per point + 3 points per TD, 20/4, 25/4, 25/6. 1 point knock for interceptions, no penalty for fumbles, typical 10 yards per point rushing and 6 points per rushing TD.

I'm currently excluding Brees, Rodgers, Peyton, Brady, Cam, Ryan, RG3, Kaepernick, Stafford, Luck, Wilson from the QBBC. I'm considering all other QBs (top = Romo) except Jacksonville, Buffalo, Jets, Philadelphia, and Oakland.

 

[kutta]

And never mention the fact you have to pick the right guy to start in a given week.

Kind of a small detail to omit.

Schedule usually dictates the start. It's rarely difficult.

you have to pick the right guy to start in a given week.

And that's why you see the writers doing their articles in hindsight in the 'ideal scenario'.

Your toast if you go Dalton/Alex Smith committee.

You may as well forfeit the 2013 season and try again next year. Or find a new hobby.

That was never suggested. It goes back to my first post which was possibly poorly worded but I clarified it later. Alex Smith's name was mentioned as a good possibility of performing well above his ADP as part of a QBBC. Dalton was mentioned as a QB1 who could perform well above his ADP. I think he has a shot to get within the top 8 QB's and/or be very comparable on a ppg basis to any QB after top 3 considering through Week 16 last year he was just 4 ppg shy of #3QB Cam Newton and just 4.5 ppg shy of #2 Aaron Rodgers (he didn't complete the game Week 17 otherwise it drops him another .5 ppg or so). Those stats are assuming 4 pt per passing TD and .05pts per yd. But even in 6 pt per passing TD he was still just 4 ppg shy of QB4.

Through Week 16 2013, 4 pt passing TD, .05 pt per passing yard, total pts/ppg avg

1. Brees, Drew NOS QB 382.55 25.503

2. Brady, Tom NEP QB 374.35 24.957

3. Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB 366.30 24.420

4. Newton, Cam CAR QB 362.35 24.157

5. Ryan, Matt ATL QB 350.75 23.383

6. Manning, Peyton DEN QB 343.45 22.897

7. Griffin III, Robert WAS 340.30 24.307

8. Romo, Tony DAL QB 333.05 22.203

9. Luck, Andrew IND QB 325.55 21.703

10. Stafford, Matthew DET 323.75 21.583

11. Dalton, Andy CIN QB 299.15 19.943

I think it's more likely Dalton improves and moves closer on a ppg average than the top 3 improving and widening the gap (or Dalton regressing) considering the Pats turnover of personnel in the passing game, the fact GB should be more run oriented (or would like to be). Brees is another story and I don't know there but I think many are expecting a similar year at best. And, in fact, QB's 7-11 on this list are all very likely to close the gap on the top half of the group IMO.

I think we'll agree to disagree with Dalton. QB11 IMO will likely go down as his best career finish. I see Russell Wilson/Kaep (at the minimum) finishing ahead of Dalton. That's not counting Eli/Big Ben/Rivers and a host of others. At this point, you're talking no less than 12 QB's IMO superior to Dalton. It's fair to say you think much more highly of Dalton than I ever will.

If you want to put this QBBC theory with Dalton to the test with a 2013 experiment, I would really enjoy seeing how it turns out week-2-week. Announcing each week who is starting.

On the otherhand, I don't want to see another one of these hindsight QBBC articles after the season saying 'what could have been'. I want to know who was picked. I don't want to hear after the season (or next offseason) 'picking a QB is easy'. Any schmoe can say that.

The last statement/paragraph wasn't directed at you. I really think many of these QBBC articles in retrospect are trash. I'd rather see it put to the test.

How about I predict all of the QBBC's that have a >50% chance of outscoring all of Brees/Rodgers/Manning/Brady and we evaluate at the end of the season? I reserve the right to update as late as week 3 of the preseason, but I'll stick by my predictions (and will likely use some of them in my leagues).

So how would that work, exactly? IMO, there would have to be some parameters . . . ie, the QBBC guys would have to be drafted past a certain point in the draft to be eligible. Also, there should be a limit on how many QBs you could take AND you would have to preannounce who you would be starting each week.

So you couldn't pick a 5-headed QBBC and then take the highest scoring QB each week after the season. You would have to pick one before hand.

I'm looking at 2-3 headed QBBCs, and will predict the QBs to start every week, weeks 1-16. This can be evaluated each week and at year end. I'll assume the average the next 6 QBs by ADP not drafted as part of for the bye-week QBs (for example, for Brady's bye week in week 10, assuming none of the following belong in my QBBC, I'll, average Roethlisberger, Dalton, Locker, Freeman, Rivers, Eli) for the top 4 QBs.

I'm currently excluding Brees, Rodgers, Peyton, Brady, Cam, Ryan, RG3, Kaepernick, Stafford, Luck, Wilson from the QBBC. I'm considering all other QBs (top = Romo) except Jacksonville, Buffalo, Jets, Philadelphia, and Oakland.

I might want in on this bet. I'll take the Brees, etc. side.