This topic may have been discussed recently. Just wondering if there was a consensus that skill played a more important role for FF success in dynasty leagues than redraft leagues. Injuries play a huge role in redraft leagues, and success usually requires a good measure of luck (avoiding injuries to stud players, having a few value picks perform well (substantially better than expected compared to where they were drafted), surviving multiple playoff games where each victory requires some luck, etc.).
But team conditions and player values change substantially from year to year and thus luck also plays a major role in dynasty leagues (over a 5 year time horizon), along with injuries and the other luck factors common to redraft leagues.
In general, “FF skill” would appear to be a more important factor for success in dynasty leagues than in redraft leagues. But maybe not? Only a few low-ranked players blow-up each year – you have to be "lucky" to have them on your team. And many times the low-ranked players that become studs are not the younger players that are generally agreed to have high future potential.
Last year Brees was ranked QB #22 before the 1st game and finished as QB2 overall. Gore was ranked RB #21 and finished RB4. Colston was ranked WR #67 before the season started and finished WR14 overall. Furrey was unranked and finished as WR19. And there are similar cases each year.
Four years from now, who will be in the corps of "established studs"? It's likely that SA, LT, LJ, Portis, RudiJ, FWP and Westbrook will be gone. Will SJAX survive injuries? How many of SJAX/Gore/Bush/MJD/Addai/Maroney/Peterson/Lynch will be stud RBs in their prime? Probably not more than 50%.
One aspect of skill in dynasty leagues is the ability to draft or trade for younger players with a lot of potential to become studs. But what percentage of well-regarded “high upside” young players (without a demonstrated track record) become studs over a 5 year time horizon? I don’t think it’s too high. I guess I’m just arguing that luck is just as (or more) important in dynasty as in redraft. But I'd like to be proven wrong.
But team conditions and player values change substantially from year to year and thus luck also plays a major role in dynasty leagues (over a 5 year time horizon), along with injuries and the other luck factors common to redraft leagues.
In general, “FF skill” would appear to be a more important factor for success in dynasty leagues than in redraft leagues. But maybe not? Only a few low-ranked players blow-up each year – you have to be "lucky" to have them on your team. And many times the low-ranked players that become studs are not the younger players that are generally agreed to have high future potential.
Last year Brees was ranked QB #22 before the 1st game and finished as QB2 overall. Gore was ranked RB #21 and finished RB4. Colston was ranked WR #67 before the season started and finished WR14 overall. Furrey was unranked and finished as WR19. And there are similar cases each year.
Four years from now, who will be in the corps of "established studs"? It's likely that SA, LT, LJ, Portis, RudiJ, FWP and Westbrook will be gone. Will SJAX survive injuries? How many of SJAX/Gore/Bush/MJD/Addai/Maroney/Peterson/Lynch will be stud RBs in their prime? Probably not more than 50%.
One aspect of skill in dynasty leagues is the ability to draft or trade for younger players with a lot of potential to become studs. But what percentage of well-regarded “high upside” young players (without a demonstrated track record) become studs over a 5 year time horizon? I don’t think it’s too high. I guess I’m just arguing that luck is just as (or more) important in dynasty as in redraft. But I'd like to be proven wrong.
