Reverse Engineering Thread (1 Viewer)

[Bob Magaw]

i'll start with bradford, but other players/teams can be discussed...

PHI running game with mccoy and brown/polk might be interesting case study?

because some (myself included) don't always think in this direction, it might be instructive, and maybe some projections will be revised through thinking differently...

in other words, lets say bradford throws for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs. of course he might not, but for the purposes here, lets say he does...

how would you distribute the receiving yards and TDs between (if you prefer, just focus on main receiving weapons of cook, givens and austin)...

TE

cook

kendricks

WR

givens

austin

pettis

quick

bailey

RB

richardson

pead

stacy

 

[We Tigers]

Fun thread. I'll play!

TE

cook - 800/7

kendricks - 200/3

WR

givens - 950/7

austin - 820/5

pettis - 350/2

quick - 200/2

bailey - 150/1

RB

richardson - 260/1

pead - 100

stacy - 30

That's 3860/28, leaving a small smattering of theoretical yards and scores for the handful of guys who'll get 2-5 catches. Useful for trying to keep yourself from getting too hyped up about a lot of guys on a given team--i.e. "I think Tavon Austin is great value, and Jared Cook is great value, and think Chris Givens could be top 10."

 

[Bob Magaw]

good work, that seems very realistic if bradford hits MY target range (not necessarily projections), which i'm hopeful he will...

he had career high 3,702 yards in 2012, and that was without jake long, cook, austin, bailey, givens and quick a year and kendricks another year of experience... he also had career high 21 passing TDs... if all the added weapons leads to more TDs, a roughly 30% increase would lead to 28 TD range.

 

[Biabreakable]

TE

cook - 600-800 4-6TD

kendricks - 100-150

WR

givens - 600-900 4-7 TD

austin - 600-900 4-6 TD (returns 2TD)

pettis - 0-100

quick - 200-400 3-5 TD

bailey - 400-700 2-6 TD

RB

richardson - 100-300 1-3 TD

pead -

stacy - 0-100

If I add up all of those highs it is 4600 yards. That is not happening. The lows add up to 2800. Some combination between those ranges would be what I am expecting, which is as you laid out around 3800-4200 yards. So I should likely pair down some of my high numbers a bit. But this is generally what I have been visualizing for this offense and how the pieces will work together.

eta- Bradford has been sacked 34, 36 and 35 times in his 3 seasons. Pretty consistent. This could possibly be improved on by a few sacks due to improved Oline play. In any case Bradford has lost an average of 241 yards from sacks those 3 seasons, so subtracting that from all of the highs of 4600 yards would be 4361. Which is still a bit higher than what I think his ceiling is at 4200, but I do not think entirely unreasonable. So I dropped Richardson and Givens highs by 100yds and I think that fits well enough.

Now for number of targets and receptions I might find different conclusions from that process than this more general framework described here.