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Richardson/Bradshaw (1 Viewer)

Bayhawks

Footballguy
ETA-I know there are other Richardson threads on the board, but this one is focusing specifically on his value after game 1 in Indy. I didn't feel like sifting through pages and pages of talk about the trade, or preseason threads that aren't relevant since his team and situation has so drastically changed. I'm probably not the only one. If the mods want to merge/delete this thread, so be it.

The Colts gave up a first to get Richardson, but Bradshaw has put up some really good numbers the last 2 weeks (34 carries, 160 yards, 4.71 YPC, 2 TDs, 6 rec, 35 yards) against two pretty good defenses. Against those same 2 D's, Richardson has 26 carries for 82 yards (3.15 YPC), 1 TD, 2 catches for 30 yards. While it's not fair to compare them since one of Trent's games came in Cleveland, and one came with minimal practice with the Colts, the fact remains that Bradshaw has been productive the last 2 weeks.

Could we possibly see a situation where Bradshaw gets 10-15 touches/week? If so, does that reduce Richardson's value?

One reason Richardson was so valued coming into the season was b/c he was the only option in Cleveland. He was going to get 300 carries, goal-line looks, and 40-50 catches, to boot. If the Colts decide to utilize both of them, I could see:

Richardson: 15 carries/game, 2 catches/game, most of the goal-line work

Bradshaw: 12 carries/game, 3 catches/game, occasional GL work

Richardson averaged 3.6 YPC last year, and is only averaging 3.2 this year. If he doesn't substantially improve that YPC, he might get less than 700 rushing yards the rest of the year. Without a lot of catches, even if you give him 10 TDs, he's not going to be the FF stud he was predicted to be (prior to the season, or after the Indy trade).

Bradshaw has averaged 4.6 YPC over his career, and he's averaging 4.5 this year. He's had 3 catches in each game since Ballard went out. If he gets 12 carries/game, you're looking at about the same amount of rushing yards as Richardson (700), but you might get another 275-300 receiving yards. You might not get as many TDs, but I wouldn't be shocked if he adds 5 more this year.

Does this look like a possible scenario to play out in Indy this year? And if so, should Richardson owners look to trade him, while his value is still pretty high?

 
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Here's the thing

The Colts are not the Browns, their goal is the playoffs...maybe more (AFC Championship against Peyton ?)

So, obviously they will give T-Rich every opportunities to be effective but if he still sucking by the end of October/mid November don't be surprised if Bradshaw gets more carries, 1st round or not........of course there's a chance Bradshaw will be injured by then.

This is the NFL: you produce on the field or you sit.

 
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Bradshaw looked like the 3rd pick of last year's draft.

Quick, spry, powerful.

I'm sure T-rich will get his, but Bradshaw is more of threat than we assumed (until he gets banged up).

 
here's the thing....Trent had 3 days of practice and 3 days with the playbook....week one meant nothing

 
here's the thing....Trent had 3 days of practice and 3 days with the playbook....week one meant nothing
Whle I agree that it is unfair to judge Richardson based on Sunday's game (I said as much in my OP), the fact is that he averaged 3.6 YPC last year, behind an O-line that was widely believed to have been superior to Indy's. So even if week one (three, actually) meant nothing, what does last year, and the first 2 games in Cleveland of this year mean?
 
here's the thing....Trent had 3 days of practice and 3 days with the playbook....week one meant nothing
Whle I agree that it is unfair to judge Richardson based on Sunday's game (I said as much in my OP), the fact is that he averaged 3.6 YPC last year, behind an O-line that was widely believed to have been superior to Indy's. So even if week one (three, actually) meant nothing, what does last year, and the first 2 games in Cleveland of this year mean?
the o line might of been better but when the qb isnt very good and there is no other threats to the running back, its easier to just load the boxs and say let weeden or whoever the qb is beat us.

 
This is a 60/40 split at best for T Rich. If anyone thinks Bradshaw is going away you're kidding yourselves.

 
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That seems like a reasonable expectation.

Colts RBs have been getting about 25 carries a game so far. Reasonable to expect an uptick after acquiring Richardson.

No idea about the passing work, and I think that's the big variable. Colts barely threw to RBs at all last year, and they've got 8 catches in 3 games this year under Pep. 5 catches/game between the 2 backs might be a stretch.

Short week caveat applies, but Richardson looked pretty bad in a limited sample yesterday (2 drops from what I remember. 1 really terrible with ball going right through his hands, complete with Phil and Jim both commending him for somehow preventing an interception).

If that doesn't improve, I'd think it could be hard for him to get a lot of production out of the backfield with a limited total and a very capable pass catcher in Bradshaw to turn to.

You can be a stud with 1 or 2 catches a game, but you better score a lot of TDs. Certainly a strong possibility being the main GL back on a good offense, but it gives him less margin for error, so to speak.

 
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I think it's more like 70/30 or 65/35 in favor of Trent. Agreed that Bradshaw isn't going anywhere, but as Pagano said, they didn't acquire Trent to have him be the water boy.

Phil Simms commented several times in the game yesterday that Trent was leaving yards on the field due to lack of familiarity with the offense. He'd gain 2-3 on a play that was blocked well enough to gain 5 or 6. It's a matter of him learning the playbook. There's also the fact that SF Defense very likely keyed on the run when Trent was in the game. I admittedly didn't see the whole game, but Trent didn't seem to be pass blocking that much. Most of the time he was in the game, he got the ball to run. Call it the Mark Ingram scenario.

I personally don't think Bradshaw is going away by any stretch of the imagination, but I would also imagine that Pep Hamilton wants this team to be a lot of ground and pound with Luck taking PA strikes down the field. So in a perfect game, I'm envisioning about 18-20 carries and 2-3 receptions for Trent, plus goalline work. 10-12 carries and 3-5 receptions for Bradshaw. That's assuming health for both, but I don't think you should greatly discount Trent based on one game after three days of practice (one being a walk-through).

At the end of the day, it's got to be a net plus for Trent - better O-line, better offense, more chances to score. Even if he doesn't approach the 300 carries and 50+ receptions, IMO we'll get that back in added TDs. I think his role only grows from here.

 
As an owner of both, this is what concerns me. Ironically, I thought the trade seemed rather silly for the Colts. They could have easily secured a "decent" backup, without having to pay the outrageous price tag. Bradshaw has played well and is known to be very good in pass protection. I could see these types of games (50/50 carry split) for a couple weeks. The Colts will continue to work Richardson in, but Bradshaw, based on ability and productivity is going to get plenty of snaps...until he gets hurt.

The Colts coaching staff has to be delighted with what they're seeing. Fantasy owners of either, not so much. This could be RBBC in some shape or form for the short term (2-3 weeks) until someone gets dinged up or clearly takes the lead. I think TRich is more talented, more durable and is younger - but Bradshaw still brings a lot to the table and is only 27. If Bradshaw stays healthy (yes, I realize that IF is bigger than Jamarcus Russell) - this could be a frustrating situation for fantasy owners for a while.

 
Bradshaw looked like the 3rd pick of last year's draft.

Quick, spry, powerful.

I'm sure T-rich will get his, but Bradshaw is more of threat than we assumed (until he gets banged up).
I have watched Bradshaw his whole career and people who don't watch NYG much may be surprised by how good he is. You are right not to underestimate him or write him off. I saw him compete with Jacobs and out perform him. Bradshaw is a tough runner, shifty, has good quicks (if not top end speed), blocks well, catches well, can grind out the first down inside or bounce it outside. He is an all around back. And he loves a challenge--so the signing of Trent just motivated him.

Yes, he has bad feet. But he manages to play hurt most of the time, a skil that is highly under valued.

Here is how I see it.

IND went after what they see as a long term workhorse back. They want to run the ball 25-30 times a game. I expect Richardson to get 15-20 of those carries and most of the goal line work (although Bradshaw is equally good near the goal line). I don't expect Richardson to be used much in passing situations or as a receiver.

Bradshaw will get 10--15 carries a week and 1-3 receptions.

If either one gets hurt the whole situation is changed of course. But bottom line is that they both will have value because I think the team is going to try and feature the run game and both will be used.

 
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From RW:

Colts RB snaps: Richardson 28, Bradshaw 30 - Trent Richardson | IND

Trent Richardson played 28 snaps compared to Ahmad Bradshaw's 30 in the Colts' Week 3 win over San Francisco.
Also, if you look at the next news story for Richardson it says, "ESPN's Ed Werder reports the Colts plan to give Trent Richardson 10-15 touches in his debut with the team on Sunday against San Francisco."

My math says that 13 carries is between 10 and 15. Right in line with what they expected to do. I would expect Richardson's role to expand but Bradshaw will not go away.

 
It's not even worth speculating on yet. Let's wait to see how the carries are distributed next week when TRich has a full weeks of practice under his belt.

 
I think this could end up being like Jones/Charles a couple years ago when KC had the best running game in the league. Owning and starting both was a good way to go.

 
It's not even worth speculating on yet. Let's wait to see how the carries are distributed next week when TRich has a full weeks of practice under his belt.
Yes, it is, as long as we all know that's all it is: speculation.

Maybe a Richardson owner is worried by the use of Bradshaw in this game, and is willing to trade him. If you think Richardson is going to be "THE MAN," you might be able to get him cheap.

Maybe a Richardson owner is more willing to give something of value up to obtain Bradshaw, and you can work a good trade.

Maybe a RB-strapped team is willing to trade something of value for Bradshaw, envisioning that Bradshaw is able to do the same think in Indy that he did in NY; that is force them to give him the ball over a more highly touted RB.

All of these things make it worth speculating right now. If we wait another week and Richardson and Bradshaw split snaps/carries pretty equally, and/or Richardson underwhelms while Bradshaw impresses, then you may have missed an opportunity.

FF isn't about looking about what HAS happened, but about speculating about what will happen.

 
Bayhawks said:
SameSongNDance said:
It's not even worth speculating on yet. Let's wait to see how the carries are distributed next week when TRich has a full weeks of practice under his belt.
Yes, it is, as long as we all know that's all it is: speculation.

Maybe a Richardson owner is worried by the use of Bradshaw in this game, and is willing to trade him. If you think Richardson is going to be "THE MAN," you might be able to get him cheap.

Maybe a Richardson owner is more willing to give something of value up to obtain Bradshaw, and you can work a good trade.

Maybe a RB-strapped team is willing to trade something of value for Bradshaw, envisioning that Bradshaw is able to do the same think in Indy that he did in NY; that is force them to give him the ball over a more highly touted RB.

All of these things make it worth speculating right now. If we wait another week and Richardson and Bradshaw split snaps/carries pretty equally, and/or Richardson underwhelms while Bradshaw impresses, then you may have missed an opportunity.

FF isn't about looking about what HAS happened, but about speculating about what will happen.
My point is trying to make a concrete decision/trade/acquisition after what you saw from TRich after joining the team a couple of days ago is completely silly. You cannot get a good read on the situation no matter how many angles you choose to analyse it from. There's likely a shark move to be made here but good luck trying to determine value with such little information.

 
Lets just go with the obvious; Indy DID NOT just give up a 1st round pick in order to have Trent Richardson touch the ball just 50/60/ 70 percent of the time. Soon as the routes/protection/playbook is firmly consumed Bradshaw's role will be to spell as Richardson is given all he can eat. Under that scenario Indy's run game improves overnight. I think sometimes you need to take the Team Owner into account as well. You are kidding yourself if you don't think Irsay is chomping at the bit to show this move off. I highly doubt he went along with this with some type of planned "time share".

Don't over-think this.

 
az_prof said:
Bradshaw looked like the 3rd pick of last year's draft.

Quick, spry, powerful.

I'm sure T-rich will get his, but Bradshaw is more of threat than we assumed (until he gets banged up).
I have watched Bradshaw his whole career and people who don't watch NYG much may be surprised by how good he is. You are right not to underestimate him or write him off. I saw him compete with Jacobs and out perform him. Bradshaw is a tough runner, shifty, has good quicks (if not top end speed), blocks well, catches well, can grind out the first down inside or bounce it outside. He is an all around back. And he loves a challenge--so the signing of Trent just motivated him.

Yes, he has bad feet. But he manages to play hurt most of the time, a skil that is highly under valued.

Here is how I see it.

IND went after what they see as a long term workhorse back. They want to run the ball 25-30 times a game. I expect Richardson to get 15-20 of those carries and most of the goal line work (although Bradshaw is equally good near the goal line). I don't expect Richardson to be used much in passing situations or as a receiver.

Bradshaw will get 10--15 carries a week and 1-3 receptions.

If either one gets hurt the whole situation is changed of course. But bottom line is that they both will have value because I think the team is going to try and feature the run game and both will be used.
Why? He had 50 receptions last year. I do not get that logic at all except that you like Bradshaw as a fan (understand why)

 
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I see no reason to think Richardson would be the third down back at any time when Bradshaw is fully healthy. Bradshaw is also a good guy to get one-off carries during the game, like 2nd and 1 when you might launch a pass deep or just take the easy first down, and you put your best pass protector in there.

But Richardson is a volume back, and they want to get him carries. They want to wear down opposing defenses and dictate the flow of the game. I believe they referred to him as a "bowling ball of butcher knives", or something like that. If that's your goal, you don't give the guy 8-10 carries and the occasional pass. You run it early and often, and set up the play action pass.

Richardson is a couple weeks away from being fluent enough in the offense to be a three down back. Bradshaw isn't much further along - he only has two more weeks of field time in the offense, having missed the whole preseason, and signing late in the offseason - but he's a better pass protector, a veteran, and he's more familiar with the playbook. So I'd expect that Bradshaw will stay fantasy relevant for a couple more weeks.

But if he can stay healthy, Richardson should come on strong in the second half of the season, when he is wearing down defenses that are already worn down by the long NFL season. Of course, that's assuming he stays healthy. Which is why I think he's a wait-to-trade-for guy - someone you hope stays healthy but underwhelms, so you can trade for him at a relative bargain around week 7 or 8, after his current owner has assumed all the risk, and the hype around the move to the Colts has died down. If I owned him right now (and I do in one league), I'd field offers for him, but only at a premium price.

The guy whose value may take a hit is Andrew Luck. Luck had 5 rushing touchdowns last year, and already has two this year, including one last week. That's huge. But he also has just three passing TDs so far this year, including zero yesterday. Last year, Luck had 4374/23/18 with 62/255/5 rushing. This year, he's on pace for 3500/16/5, with 75/510/10 rushing. But as both Richardson and Bradshaw start to become larger parts of the offense, those rushing totals - like the naked bootleg he ran this week - will go down. More concerning, his pass attempts have dropped from 627 last year to a pace for 486 this year.

Obviously, you can't extrapolate much from three weeks of play, but the concern here is that Pep Hamilton finally has the players he needs to run the offense he has repeatedly said he wants to run with the Colts - a "run first offense". With Richardson/Bradshaw, Indy may run more, changing Luck from Manning to Roethlisberger, a guy who hits higher percentage passing plays, and wins more games, but doesn't put up elite fantasy numbers.

Looking at this year, Indy has also lost one of their tight ends, Wayne is old and slowed down significantly last year in the second half, Hilton is talented but hit or miss, and DHB looks like a fairly substantial downgrade from Donnie Avery, who coincidentally looked pretty good in KC on Thursday. So there's reason to believe that this offense may change substantially.

 
Lets just go with the obvious; Indy DID NOT just give up a 1st round pick in order to have Trent Richardson touch the ball just 50/60/ 70 percent of the time. Soon as the routes/protection/playbook is firmly consumed Bradshaw's role will be to spell as Richardson is given all he can eat. Under that scenario Indy's run game improves overnight. I think sometimes you need to take the Team Owner into account as well. You are kidding yourself if you don't think Irsay is chomping at the bit to show this move off. I highly doubt he went along with this with some type of planned "time share".

Don't over-think this.
Why is that obvious? Because it's the way you perceive the situation?

You MAY be right about the situation, then again you could be dead wrong. Or perhaps the truth could be that part of what you think is true, but part is not.

You say that under the scenario of giving Richardson "all he can eat" improves Indy's run game overnight, but the facts don't back you up. Richardson has been inferior to Bradshaw over the last 19 NFL games, and Cleveland's O-line was better than New York's last year and ranked higher Indy's this year. So your contention is that a RB who has produced more with inferior O-line play is a lesser option than a RB with a superior line who has produced less?

As far as Irsay goes, from all accounts, he is a "hands-off" owner. While it is possible that he might interfere, his track record doesn't reflect that belief.

So while you are advising people to "not over think it," perhaps you should think a bit more, rather than just dismissing the situation.

 
Lets just go with the obvious; Indy DID NOT just give up a 1st round pick in order to have Trent Richardson touch the ball just 50/60/ 70 percent of the time. Soon as the routes/protection/playbook is firmly consumed Bradshaw's role will be to spell as Richardson is given all he can eat. Under that scenario Indy's run game improves overnight. I think sometimes you need to take the Team Owner into account as well. You are kidding yourself if you don't think Irsay is chomping at the bit to show this move off. I highly doubt he went along with this with some type of planned "time share".

Don't over-think this.
This is just another reason to limit Richardson't touches. They gave up a 1st round pick. They have the option of picking up his extra year. Right now, they have 2 RB's that carry the football effectively. One of them is going to be part of their team for at least next few years. The other is probably going to be let go at the end of the season. Why have Richardson take a bunch of abuse, when you can use Bradshaw and then kick him to the curb?

As a Panthers fan, you should know what a RBBC full of individual talent looks like.

 
Lets just go with the obvious; Indy DID NOT just give up a 1st round pick in order to have Trent Richardson touch the ball just 50/60/ 70 percent of the time. Soon as the routes/protection/playbook is firmly consumed Bradshaw's role will be to spell as Richardson is given all he can eat. Under that scenario Indy's run game improves overnight. I think sometimes you need to take the Team Owner into account as well. You are kidding yourself if you don't think Irsay is chomping at the bit to show this move off. I highly doubt he went along with this with some type of planned "time share".

Don't over-think this.
Why is that obvious? Because it's the way you perceive the situation?

You MAY be right about the situation, then again you could be dead wrong. Or perhaps the truth could be that part of what you think is true, but part is not.

You say that under the scenario of giving Richardson "all he can eat" improves Indy's run game overnight, but the facts don't back you up. Richardson has been inferior to Bradshaw over the last 19 NFL games, and Cleveland's O-line was better than New York's last year and ranked higher Indy's this year. So your contention is that a RB who has produced more with inferior O-line play is a lesser option than a RB with a superior line who has produced less?

As far as Irsay goes, from all accounts, he is a "hands-off" owner. While it is possible that he might interfere, his track record doesn't reflect that belief.

So while you are advising people to "not over think it," perhaps you should think a bit more, rather than just dismissing the situation.
It's obvious because it is an investment. That is the ONLY thing that is not speculation. You buy a car that you have no intention of driving?

I will rely on the fact that NYG let him walk and Indy signed him to a 1 year deal to dispute your "Richardson is inferior" comment. Again - I am not speculating there. Just going with the obvious.

 
Lets just go with the obvious; Indy DID NOT just give up a 1st round pick in order to have Trent Richardson touch the ball just 50/60/ 70 percent of the time. Soon as the routes/protection/playbook is firmly consumed Bradshaw's role will be to spell as Richardson is given all he can eat. Under that scenario Indy's run game improves overnight. I think sometimes you need to take the Team Owner into account as well. You are kidding yourself if you don't think Irsay is chomping at the bit to show this move off. I highly doubt he went along with this with some type of planned "time share".

Don't over-think this.
This is just another reason to limit Richardson't touches. They gave up a 1st round pick. They have the option of picking up his extra year. Right now, they have 2 RB's that carry the football effectively. One of them is going to be part of their team for at least next few years. The other is probably going to be let go at the end of the season. Why have Richardson take a bunch of abuse, when you can use Bradshaw and then kick him to the curb?

As a Panthers fan, you should know what a RBBC full of individual talent looks like.
I get all of this. I really do. But until we see it happen why is it out of bounds to assume Indy just picked up a workhorse RB to do be a workhorse?

 
Lets just go with the obvious; Indy DID NOT just give up a 1st round pick in order to have Trent Richardson touch the ball just 50/60/ 70 percent of the time. Soon as the routes/protection/playbook is firmly consumed Bradshaw's role will be to spell as Richardson is given all he can eat. Under that scenario Indy's run game improves overnight. I think sometimes you need to take the Team Owner into account as well. You are kidding yourself if you don't think Irsay is chomping at the bit to show this move off. I highly doubt he went along with this with some type of planned "time share".

Don't over-think this.
This is just another reason to limit Richardson't touches. They gave up a 1st round pick. They have the option of picking up his extra year. Right now, they have 2 RB's that carry the football effectively. One of them is going to be part of their team for at least next few years. The other is probably going to be let go at the end of the season. Why have Richardson take a bunch of abuse, when you can use Bradshaw and then kick him to the curb?

As a Panthers fan, you should know what a RBBC full of individual talent looks like.
I get all of this. I really do. But until we see it happen why is it out of bounds to assume Indy just picked up a workhorse RB to do be a workhorse?
They did, but it's kinda the same if you have a rental car and your new car in the driveway. You might as well beat the crap out of the rental car, since it won't be there next week.

 
I'm surprised Richardson played as much as he did with the limited practices he has had with his new club. I believe Indy wants Richardson to be quite heavily the guy but it may take a few weeks to mesh with his new team.

 
here's the thing....Trent had 3 days of practice and 3 days with the playbook....week one meant nothing
Whle I agree that it is unfair to judge Richardson based on Sunday's game (I said as much in my OP), the fact is that he averaged 3.6 YPC last year, behind an O-line that was widely believed to have been superior to Indy's. So even if week one (three, actually) meant nothing, what does last year, and the first 2 games in Cleveland of this year mean?
the o line might of been better but when the qb isnt very good and there is no other threats to the running back, its easier to just load the boxs and say let weeden or whoever the qb is beat us.
I like Trent, but this is a misconception that is patently untrue. It's theorycraft. Sounds good in our heads, doesn't work out in practice.

The reality of the situation is that most years, most of the top fantasy backs come from bad passing offenses, not good ones. Statistically, you'd have an easier time proving that a bad passing game is correlated to good fantasy running backs than you would that a good passing game is correlated to good fantasy running backs.

Just last year, these passing offenses produced top 10 FF running backs.

Minnesota (31st)

Buffalo (25th)

Kansas City (32nd)

Seattle (27th)

Cleveland ranked 19th, fwiw.

Meanwhile, only one top 10 passing offense also produced a top 10 FF running back (New England).

Adrian Peterson has spent nearly the entirety of his career with a bottom 5 passing offense, and many of those years with a line significantly worse than what Cleveland is rolling out. None of this is damning to Richardson, as plenty of other future studs started slowly at RB. That said, let's get over this excuse around the passing game. The list of running backs that have produced well alongside a putrid passing attack is utterly MASSIVE.

 
Lets just go with the obvious; Indy DID NOT just give up a 1st round pick in order to have Trent Richardson touch the ball just 50/60/ 70 percent of the time. Soon as the routes/protection/playbook is firmly consumed Bradshaw's role will be to spell as Richardson is given all he can eat. Under that scenario Indy's run game improves overnight. I think sometimes you need to take the Team Owner into account as well. You are kidding yourself if you don't think Irsay is chomping at the bit to show this move off. I highly doubt he went along with this with some type of planned "time share".

Don't over-think this.
Why is that obvious? Because it's the way you perceive the situation?

You MAY be right about the situation, then again you could be dead wrong. Or perhaps the truth could be that part of what you think is true, but part is not.

You say that under the scenario of giving Richardson "all he can eat" improves Indy's run game overnight, but the facts don't back you up. Richardson has been inferior to Bradshaw over the last 19 NFL games, and Cleveland's O-line was better than New York's last year and ranked higher Indy's this year. So your contention is that a RB who has produced more with inferior O-line play is a lesser option than a RB with a superior line who has produced less?

As far as Irsay goes, from all accounts, he is a "hands-off" owner. While it is possible that he might interfere, his track record doesn't reflect that belief.

So while you are advising people to "not over think it," perhaps you should think a bit more, rather than just dismissing the situation.
It's obvious because it is an investment. That is the ONLY thing that is not speculation. You buy a car that you have no intention of driving?

I will rely on the fact that NYG let him walk and Indy signed him to a 1 year deal to dispute your "Richardson is inferior" comment. Again - I am not speculating there. Just going with the obvious.
You keep saying "just going with the obvious," when you're not. You're supplying your interpretation of this situation. You may be right, but you may not be.

The fact is that Richardson isn't a huge investment; rookie contracts are affordable now. Cleveland has paid most of his bonuses. Indy is going to owe him about $7M over the next 3 years, I believe. It's very likely that Bradshaw is somewhere else next year, but for this year, they have a 1-2 RB punch that could be very effective. Bradshaw has been more effective during his career than Richardson has in his, and both have been dinged/injured, so this not only gives the Colts more talent, but also more depth. You said "Indy DID NOT just give up a 1st round pick in order to have Trent Richardson touch the ball just 50/60/ 70 percent of the time," but if a 60/40 split makes their offense better, it's OBVIOUS that that is what they will do.

 
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Lets just go with the obvious; Indy DID NOT just give up a 1st round pick in order to have Trent Richardson touch the ball just 50/60/ 70 percent of the time. Soon as the routes/protection/playbook is firmly consumed Bradshaw's role will be to spell as Richardson is given all he can eat. Under that scenario Indy's run game improves overnight. I think sometimes you need to take the Team Owner into account as well. You are kidding yourself if you don't think Irsay is chomping at the bit to show this move off. I highly doubt he went along with this with some type of planned "time share".

Don't over-think this.
This is just another reason to limit Richardson't touches. They gave up a 1st round pick. They have the option of picking up his extra year. Right now, they have 2 RB's that carry the football effectively. One of them is going to be part of their team for at least next few years. The other is probably going to be let go at the end of the season. Why have Richardson take a bunch of abuse, when you can use Bradshaw and then kick him to the curb?

As a Panthers fan, you should know what a RBBC full of individual talent looks like.
I get all of this. I really do. But until we see it happen why is it out of bounds to assume Indy just picked up a workhorse RB to do be a workhorse?
Why is out of bounds to assume Indy will use the RB that has been more effective over the last 19 games as well?

 
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I see no reason to think Richardson would be the third down back at any time when Bradshaw is fully healthy. Bradshaw is also a good guy to get one-off carries during the game, like 2nd and 1 when you might launch a pass deep or just take the easy first down, and you put your best pass protector in there.

But Richardson is a volume back, and they want to get him carries. They want to wear down opposing defenses and dictate the flow of the game. I believe they referred to him as a "bowling ball of butcher knives", or something like that. If that's your goal, you don't give the guy 8-10 carries and the occasional pass. You run it early and often, and set up the play action pass.

Richardson is a couple weeks away from being fluent enough in the offense to be a three down back. Bradshaw isn't much further along - he only has two more weeks of field time in the offense, having missed the whole preseason, and signing late in the offseason - but he's a better pass protector, a veteran, and he's more familiar with the playbook. So I'd expect that Bradshaw will stay fantasy relevant for a couple more weeks.

But if he can stay healthy, Richardson should come on strong in the second half of the season, when he is wearing down defenses that are already worn down by the long NFL season. Of course, that's assuming he stays healthy. Which is why I think he's a wait-to-trade-for guy - someone you hope stays healthy but underwhelms, so you can trade for him at a relative bargain around week 7 or 8, after his current owner has assumed all the risk, and the hype around the move to the Colts has died down. If I owned him right now (and I do in one league), I'd field offers for him, but only at a premium price.

The guy whose value may take a hit is Andrew Luck. Luck had 5 rushing touchdowns last year, and already has two this year, including one last week. That's huge. But he also has just three passing TDs so far this year, including zero yesterday. Last year, Luck had 4374/23/18 with 62/255/5 rushing. This year, he's on pace for 3500/16/5, with 75/510/10 rushing. But as both Richardson and Bradshaw start to become larger parts of the offense, those rushing totals - like the naked bootleg he ran this week - will go down. More concerning, his pass attempts have dropped from 627 last year to a pace for 486 this year.

Obviously, you can't extrapolate much from three weeks of play, but the concern here is that Pep Hamilton finally has the players he needs to run the offense he has repeatedly said he wants to run with the Colts - a "run first offense". With Richardson/Bradshaw, Indy may run more, changing Luck from Manning to Roethlisberger, a guy who hits higher percentage passing plays, and wins more games, but doesn't put up elite fantasy numbers.

Looking at this year, Indy has also lost one of their tight ends, Wayne is old and slowed down significantly last year in the second half, Hilton is talented but hit or miss, and DHB looks like a fairly substantial downgrade from Donnie Avery, who coincidentally looked pretty good in KC on Thursday. So there's reason to believe that this offense may change substantially.
:goodposting:

 
Bumped for further discussion/speculation.

I assume Richardson owners are holding for now. What should be the play for Bradshaw owners? Sell "high"? Is Bradshaw a RB2 right now? Or Just flex-worthy?

 
ETA-I know there are other Richardson threads on the board, but this one is focusing specifically on his value after game 1 in Indy. I didn't feel like sifting through pages and pages of talk about the trade, or preseason threads that aren't relevant since his team and situation has so drastically changed. I'm probably not the only one. If the mods want to merge/delete this thread, so be it.

The Colts gave up a first to get Richardson, but Bradshaw has put up some really good numbers the last 2 weeks (34 carries, 160 yards, 4.71 YPC, 2 TDs, 6 rec, 35 yards) against two pretty good defenses. Against those same 2 D's, Richardson has 26 carries for 82 yards (3.15 YPC), 1 TD, 2 catches for 30 yards. While it's not fair to compare them since one of Trent's games came in Cleveland, and one came with minimal practice with the Colts, the fact remains that Bradshaw has been productive the last 2 weeks.

Could we possibly see a situation where Bradshaw gets 10-15 touches/week? If so, does that reduce Richardson's value?

One reason Richardson was so valued coming into the season was b/c he was the only option in Cleveland. He was going to get 300 carries, goal-line looks, and 40-50 catches, to boot. If the Colts decide to utilize both of them, I could see:

Richardson: 15 carries/game, 2 catches/game, most of the goal-line work

Bradshaw: 12 carries/game, 3 catches/game, occasional GL work

Richardson averaged 3.6 YPC last year, and is only averaging 3.2 this year. If he doesn't substantially improve that YPC, he might get less than 700 rushing yards the rest of the year. Without a lot of catches, even if you give him 10 TDs, he's not going to be the FF stud he was predicted to be (prior to the season, or after the Indy trade).

Bradshaw has averaged 4.6 YPC over his career, and he's averaging 4.5 this year. He's had 3 catches in each game since Ballard went out. If he gets 12 carries/game, you're looking at about the same amount of rushing yards as Richardson (700), but you might get another 275-300 receiving yards. You might not get as many TDs, but I wouldn't be shocked if he adds 5 more this year.

Does this look like a possible scenario to play out in Indy this year? And if so, should Richardson owners look to trade him, while his value is still pretty high?
I wish people would stop with the ypc on Richardson last yr! He had broken ribs he played through half the yr. I dont know what RB that wouldnt effect.

 
I think this backfield is going to be productive for both Richardson and Bradshaw. There's precedence for two RBs on the same team being top fantasy scorers. I think the split goes 65/35. The Indy passing game is going to create large gaps in defenses, and both RBs will do well if healthy.

 
ETA-I know there are other Richardson threads on the board, but this one is focusing specifically on his value after game 1 in Indy. I didn't feel like sifting through pages and pages of talk about the trade, or preseason threads that aren't relevant since his team and situation has so drastically changed. I'm probably not the only one. If the mods want to merge/delete this thread, so be it.

The Colts gave up a first to get Richardson, but Bradshaw has put up some really good numbers the last 2 weeks (34 carries, 160 yards, 4.71 YPC, 2 TDs, 6 rec, 35 yards) against two pretty good defenses. Against those same 2 D's, Richardson has 26 carries for 82 yards (3.15 YPC), 1 TD, 2 catches for 30 yards. While it's not fair to compare them since one of Trent's games came in Cleveland, and one came with minimal practice with the Colts, the fact remains that Bradshaw has been productive the last 2 weeks.

Could we possibly see a situation where Bradshaw gets 10-15 touches/week? If so, does that reduce Richardson's value?

One reason Richardson was so valued coming into the season was b/c he was the only option in Cleveland. He was going to get 300 carries, goal-line looks, and 40-50 catches, to boot. If the Colts decide to utilize both of them, I could see:

Richardson: 15 carries/game, 2 catches/game, most of the goal-line work

Bradshaw: 12 carries/game, 3 catches/game, occasional GL work

Richardson averaged 3.6 YPC last year, and is only averaging 3.2 this year. If he doesn't substantially improve that YPC, he might get less than 700 rushing yards the rest of the year. Without a lot of catches, even if you give him 10 TDs, he's not going to be the FF stud he was predicted to be (prior to the season, or after the Indy trade).

Bradshaw has averaged 4.6 YPC over his career, and he's averaging 4.5 this year. He's had 3 catches in each game since Ballard went out. If he gets 12 carries/game, you're looking at about the same amount of rushing yards as Richardson (700), but you might get another 275-300 receiving yards. You might not get as many TDs, but I wouldn't be shocked if he adds 5 more this year.

Does this look like a possible scenario to play out in Indy this year? And if so, should Richardson owners look to trade him, while his value is still pretty high?
I wish people would stop with the ypc on Richardson last yr! He had broken ribs he played through half the yr. I dont know what RB that wouldnt effect.
Why should anyone "stop with the ypc on Richardson?" It merits discussion.

Obviously, you didn't realize that there have been 9 games when he was playing without that rib injury (6 games at the beginning of last season, and the first 3 this year). In those 9 games, his YPC was 3.45. In the 9 games Richardson played WITH the rib injury, his YPC was 3.54.

How, exactly, do the broken ribs have anything to do with his sub-par YPC? :unsure:

Richardson appears to be a compiler. There's nothing wrong with that; I have never played in a league that gives points for YPC, so 10 carries for 100 yards and a TD scores the same as 35 carries for 100 yards and a TD. But most of the reason why he was valued so highly in the offseason was the belief that he had NO COMPETITION for work in Cleveland. He was going to get 300 rushes, 50 receptions, and score lots of TDs. Much of the excitement after the Indy trade was that he was still going to get lots of work, score TDs, and play in a better offense. As long as Bradshaw is playing so well (IMO), Richardson's value is limited. A compiler who gets less touches has less value. What remains to be seen is exactly how many touches he will get. I don't think it's safe to assume that he will get 20 carries/game, though.

 
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Pretend you we're redrafting today...

I'd put Trent in the RB 9-12 range and Bradshaw in the RB 18-22 area.

 
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Nothing is 100% absolute certainty.............but I am 99.9% certain Richardson will get EVERY chance to be the lead dog getting 70+% of the work moving forward, probably starting in a couple weeks from now.

Really the only thing FF people need to think about is "will RIchardson thrive with the opportunity or not". Because he is GOING TO GET that opportunity, and it isnt just going to be a 1 week thing.

 
Nothing is 100% absolute certainty.............but I am 99.9% certain Richardson will get EVERY chance to be the lead dog getting 70+% of the work moving forward, probably starting in a couple weeks from now.

Really the only thing FF people need to think about is "will RIchardson thrive with the opportunity or not". Because he is GOING TO GET that opportunity, and it isnt just going to be a 1 week thing.
Again, agreed about Richardson being "lead dog," although I'm not convinced he will get 70+% of the work (especially if you consider " the work" to include receptions). I'm also not so sure that Richardson will "thrive" enough to retain such a high volume of the work, either.

 
I predict a 50/50 split as part of the gameplan, with the hot hand trending upward toward 60-70% of the carries on a given week. I expect Bradshaw to have the hot hand more often. Regardless of the split during any game, Richardson will be the goalline back.

 
I'm sure the Colts didn't trade a 1st for Richardson with the intention of using him in a RBBC with Ahmad Bradshaw. But then again, I'm pretty sure the Browns didn't trade up to draft the guy expecting to move him at a loss 15 months later either. To borrow the car analogy from earlier in the thread, the Colts probably thought they were getting a Ferrari -- but what if it actually drives more like a Yugo? That's when the Mustang in the garage starts to look like a pretty good option.

As mentioned earlier, Trent is pretty clearly a compiler. He needs all three downs plus goal-line to be a FF RB1. At the very least, Bradshaw is a stud blocker and receiver, so the 3rd down work looks unlikely moving forward. If Bradshaw continues to stay healthy enough to play the way he did this past Sunday, he'll see carries also.

Given the level of investment in this guy in dynasty leagues (1.01 startup value LOL) his owners are going to be very reluctant to admit he's utterly ordinary. But it looks like he is. And if you own him, the sooner you come to grips with that the better -- pawn him off to some other Kool Aid guzzling fool who still thinks he's the next Peterson while you still can. Because after a 1000 total YFS year with way less catches and > 4 YPC on the Colts, the emperor's lack of clothes will be obvious to EVERYONE.

 
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Bradshaw plays angry and the addition of Richardson just upped his anger factor by a decent margin. I think Richardson gets more of the touches, but Bradshaw won't go away until he's hurt. He's very good and in PPR he could end up being close to Trent in production.

 

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