Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
Could a top 25 college football team win a SB with RP? Could they make the playoffs? How far can you dilute the talent on the team and still get away with it?
Robo-Punter has 18 seconds of hang time. You could field a coverage unit of nothing but backup DTs and they'd still be able to make it down the field in time to down the ball at the 1.ROBO-PUNTER + nothing = ball downed at the 1 after every punt.Hmm, thinking about this some more. If I'm punting from my own 20, I know RP can get it to the opposing team's 1. But, they can also return it. (Or can he also directionally punt it out of bounds at the one every time?) I'll need good coverage units because they'll field the punt with plenty of room to run. Opponents can pretty much set up a kickoff return on those punts. Or, if I'm punting from midfield, I'll need a great punt protection unit because my opponents will go all out to block the punt. And I wouldn't put it past them to try and rough up the punter...a lot. Injury could be a serious concern.
You COULD punt on first down any time you have the ball inside your own 40 and you'd gain positive value out of it, but that doesn't mean that you SHOULD punt the ball on first down every time you're inside your 40. Part of the expected value of having the ball inside your 40 is based on the idea that you have an average punter (which obviously isn't true in this case). If nothing else, it'd be stupid not to just run three straight dive plays first to see if you could get a first down before punting. Downs are incredibly valuable commodities with absolutely no cost whatsoever, so it'd be silly to give them away without using them unless there are extraordinary circumstances (i.e. you're already on your own 1 yard line, or there's very little time left in the game, etc).Everyone so far has latched onto the idea that you could have Robo-punter + a hellacious defense and the worst offense in the league and win a lot, but I'd actually go the other way. If I had Robo-punter, I'd build around the offense instead of the defense. Think about it- if the opposing team had to go 99 yards for the score every single time, even a bad defense wouldn't have any trouble getting a lot of stops. If you had a top-5 offense, the opposing team would need to put up 4+ 99 yard drives a game in order to keep up with you, and I don't think any NFL team could manage that feat against even the worst defense in the league.Now, if I had Robo-kicker, I'd build around my defense, since every offensive drive is guaranteed to net 3 points no matter what. But Robo-punter? I'd definitely build around my offense.According to Romer's paper, having the opponent pinned at their 1 yard line has an expected value of +1.6 points. That means that if you have RP, you should punt on first down any time you have the ball inside your own 40. With the ball on your own 20, a punt is about equivalent in change in expected value to a 20-yard run or pass. A typical fourth down will have a negative point expectation, which RP will convert into a +1.6 point expectation, even better than the 20-yard play. If you could guarantee the equivalent of a 20-yard play on offense on every first down at your own 20, you'd pay a lot for that. I think RP is worth it.
But there's no advantage to getting a first down before punting; running offense is only valuable if it nets a score. Advancing to the 50 yard line is useless. You are probably more likely to get the ball on the 50 by punting on first down, than by running plays from your own 20. And by running plays, you run the risk that you turn the ball over, which is the one thing the RP team can't afford to do.You COULD punt on first down any time you have the ball inside your own 40 and you'd gain positive value out of it, but that doesn't mean that you SHOULD punt the ball on first down every time you're inside your 40. Part of the expected value of having the ball inside your 40 is based on the idea that you have an average punter (which obviously isn't true in this case). If nothing else, it'd be stupid not to just run three straight dive plays first to see if you could get a first down before punting. Downs are incredibly valuable commodities with absolutely no cost whatsoever, so it'd be silly to give them away without using them unless there are extraordinary circumstances (i.e. you're already on your own 1 yard line, or there's very little time left in the game, etc).
Your defense is going to get worn out very quickly if you start punting on 1st downs. It would be much better to run it 3 times (ideally with a rb who is known for not fumbling) and then punt if you don't get a 1st down, rather than just punting on 1st down.But there's no advantage to getting a first down before punting; running offense is only valuable if it nets a score. Advancing to the 50 yard line is useless. You are probably more likely to get the ball on the 50 by punting on first down, than by running plays from your own 20. And by running plays, you run the risk that you turn the ball over, which is the one thing the RP team can't afford to do.You COULD punt on first down any time you have the ball inside your own 40 and you'd gain positive value out of it, but that doesn't mean that you SHOULD punt the ball on first down every time you're inside your 40. Part of the expected value of having the ball inside your 40 is based on the idea that you have an average punter (which obviously isn't true in this case). If nothing else, it'd be stupid not to just run three straight dive plays first to see if you could get a first down before punting. Downs are incredibly valuable commodities with absolutely no cost whatsoever, so it'd be silly to give them away without using them unless there are extraordinary circumstances (i.e. you're already on your own 1 yard line, or there's very little time left in the game, etc).
Advancing to the 50 yard line is not useless if it results in a new set of downs, because it gives you an opportunity to advance to the 40, and from there to the 30, and from there to the 20, and so on. You said yourself that the 40 yard line was the breaking point of where you should punt on 1st down, so obviously the 50 yard line has some inherent value over the 40.But there's no advantage to getting a first down before punting; running offense is only valuable if it nets a score. Advancing to the 50 yard line is useless. You are probably more likely to get the ball on the 50 by punting on first down, than by running plays from your own 20. And by running plays, you run the risk that you turn the ball over, which is the one thing the RP team can't afford to do.
But if you have Robo-Punter, you're more likely to get to the 50 by punting and playing defense than you are by playing offense.Advancing to the 50 yard line is not useless if it results in a new set of downs, because it gives you an opportunity to advance to the 40, and from there to the 30, and from there to the 20, and so on. You said yourself that the 40 yard line was the breaking point of where you should punt on 1st down, so obviously the 50 yard line has some inherent value over the 40.But there's no advantage to getting a first down before punting; running offense is only valuable if it nets a score. Advancing to the 50 yard line is useless. You are probably more likely to get the ball on the 50 by punting on first down, than by running plays from your own 20. And by running plays, you run the risk that you turn the ball over, which is the one thing the RP team can't afford to do.
That's not what expected points says.But if you have Robo-Punter, you're more likely to get to the 50 by punting and playing defense than you are by playing offense.Advancing to the 50 yard line is not useless if it results in a new set of downs, because it gives you an opportunity to advance to the 40, and from there to the 30, and from there to the 20, and so on. You said yourself that the 40 yard line was the breaking point of where you should punt on 1st down, so obviously the 50 yard line has some inherent value over the 40.But there's no advantage to getting a first down before punting; running offense is only valuable if it nets a score. Advancing to the 50 yard line is useless. You are probably more likely to get the ball on the 50 by punting on first down, than by running plays from your own 20. And by running plays, you run the risk that you turn the ball over, which is the one thing the RP team can't afford to do.
I was thinking about this movie the entire time I was reading this thread. Gus>>>>Robo Punter.http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0074599/plotsummaryAnyone remember Gus the Kicking mule? He could kick 99 yd field goals...I'd take him #1 overall.
HERE
That's not exactly what expected points says, but it is certainly strongly implied by expected points. And it's implied by what we know of football; it's easier to force a punt, safety, or turnover from a team starting at the 1 than it is to gain 30 yards. I don't have an easy way to look at drive outcomes, but between the goal and 4 yard line since 2002, teams have completed less than 57% of their passes, with 30 INTs on 717 attempts. 176 first downs on those attempts (24.5%). Rushing shows a 3.6 ypc average, with 88 first downs on 1265 attempts (7.0%).Compare that to numbers at your own 20: 63.3% completions, 31.3% first downs passing, 4.6 yards per carry, 15.9% first downs rushing.Looking at those numbers, I would expect that something well over 50% of possessions starting at the 1 yard line do not result in a first down. I also would expect that of possessions starting at the 20 yard line, well under 50% reach midfield.That's not what expected points says.But if you have Robo-Punter, you're more likely to get to the 50 by punting and playing defense than you are by playing offense.
Along the same lines, you can't invest much money in a player that you will only use if you don't have the ball.ugh. No thanks then.You can't invest that much money in a player that you will only use if you FAIL to score points.He's going to want to get paid like the #1 overall pick. So if he was available this year, he'd want Stafford money and then some.and i would take RP at 1.1 provided he didnt want to paid like a franchise QB, LT or pass rusher.
But if you scores, you don't punt, so your RP would be less beneficial. And after score openent start around 20-25 y ( i don't know what is avarege kickoff starting position) If you have top 5 offense, RP may only punt 2-3 times per game.SSOG said:Everyone so far has latched onto the idea that you could have Robo-punter + a hellacious defense and the worst offense in the league and win a lot, but I'd actually go the other way. If I had Robo-punter, I'd build around the offense instead of the defense. Think about it- if the opposing team had to go 99 yards for the score every single time, even a bad defense wouldn't have any trouble getting a lot of stops. If you had a top-5 offense, the opposing team would need to put up 4+ 99 yard drives a game in order to keep up with you, and I don't think any NFL team could manage that feat against even the worst defense in the league.Now, if I had Robo-kicker, I'd build around my defense, since every offensive drive is guaranteed to net 3 points no matter what. But Robo-punter? I'd definitely build around my offense.
I'm assuming you mean that a punt is a live ball? Or am I missing something? If that's not the case, isn't that how it is now?He would be even more valuable if the NFL instituted the rule I long for; one that awards a first down to which ever team takes possession of the ball after a punt - offense or defense.
my head hurtsI'm assuming you mean that a punt is a live ball? Or am I missing something? If that's not the case, isn't that how it is now?He would be even more valuable if the NFL instituted the rule I long for; one that awards a first down to which ever team takes possession of the ball after a punt - offense or defense.
I'm assuming you mean that a punt is a live ball? Or am I missing something? If that's not the case, isn't that how it is now?He would be even more valuable if the NFL instituted the rule I long for; one that awards a first down to which ever team takes possession of the ball after a punt - offense or defense.
They should also reserve the #1 jersey for him.Anyone who doesn't think he wouldn't be far and away the #1 overall pick, deserve the biggest contract in NFL history and be hands down MVP every single season doesn't know football at all. C'mon people.... guaranteeing the opposition starts at the 1 yard line every time? I am guessing that team's average points against for the season with even an average defense would be less than 7, and that's all due to the punter.
Well they wouldn't start at their 1 every time. Just every time you punted. Every time you scored, you'd have to kick off normally.Anyone who doesn't think he wouldn't be far and away the #1 overall pick, deserve the biggest contract in NFL history and be hands down MVP every single season doesn't know football at all. C'mon people.... guaranteeing the opposition starts at the 1 yard line every time? I am guessing that team's average points against for the season with even an average defense would be less than 7, and that's all due to the punter.
Point noted. But that means that the only time they get better field position is because you scored points. So even if the opposition is successful in scoring on those drives with better field position, it will only be after Robo-Punter's team just scored points themselves.Well they wouldn't start at their 1 every time. Just every time you punted. Every time you scored, you'd have to kick off normally.Anyone who doesn't think he wouldn't be far and away the #1 overall pick, deserve the biggest contract in NFL history and be hands down MVP every single season doesn't know football at all. C'mon people.... guaranteeing the opposition starts at the 1 yard line every time? I am guessing that team's average points against for the season with even an average defense would be less than 7, and that's all due to the punter.
Can he do this in Jerry World with out hitting the board?So in my internet travels I came across this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_Outsiders#ROBO-PUNTER
(I did a search here and didn't find anything about this.)I say ROBO-PUNTER is definitely worth the #1 overall pick. My buddy says it would be a horrible move that would cripple a franchise for years. Please help us settle this debate.ROBO-PUNTER is a term used to describe a theoretical robot (or possibly cyborg) punter whose punts -- through a combination of power, precision, and exaggerated hangtime - are downed at the opposing team's one-yard line every time.
The term came to prominence at Football Outsiders where it had its genesis during an off-season draft-related discussion. It was proposed that no punter, not even one as skilled as the one described above, could ever be worth the first pick in the draft or the multi-million-dollar salary such a pick would command.
It's Robo-Punter.....ABSOLUTELY! It would be kicked at the perfect angle every time.Can he do this in Jerry World with out hitting the board?
I bet a lot of teams could manage that against the Lions.SSOG said:Robo-Punter has 18 seconds of hang time. You could field a coverage unit of nothing but backup DTs and they'd still be able to make it down the field in time to down the ball at the 1.ROBO-PUNTER + nothing = ball downed at the 1 after every punt.Hmm, thinking about this some more. If I'm punting from my own 20, I know RP can get it to the opposing team's 1. But, they can also return it. (Or can he also directionally punt it out of bounds at the one every time?) I'll need good coverage units because they'll field the punt with plenty of room to run. Opponents can pretty much set up a kickoff return on those punts. Or, if I'm punting from midfield, I'll need a great punt protection unit because my opponents will go all out to block the punt. And I wouldn't put it past them to try and rough up the punter...a lot. Injury could be a serious concern.
You COULD punt on first down any time you have the ball inside your own 40 and you'd gain positive value out of it, but that doesn't mean that you SHOULD punt the ball on first down every time you're inside your 40. Part of the expected value of having the ball inside your 40 is based on the idea that you have an average punter (which obviously isn't true in this case). If nothing else, it'd be stupid not to just run three straight dive plays first to see if you could get a first down before punting. Downs are incredibly valuable commodities with absolutely no cost whatsoever, so it'd be silly to give them away without using them unless there are extraordinary circumstances (i.e. you're already on your own 1 yard line, or there's very little time left in the game, etc).Everyone so far has latched onto the idea that you could have Robo-punter + a hellacious defense and the worst offense in the league and win a lot, but I'd actually go the other way. If I had Robo-punter, I'd build around the offense instead of the defense. Think about it- if the opposing team had to go 99 yards for the score every single time, even a bad defense wouldn't have any trouble getting a lot of stops. If you had a top-5 offense, the opposing team would need to put up 4+ 99 yard drives a game in order to keep up with you, and I don't think any NFL team could manage that feat against even the worst defense in the league.According to Romer's paper, having the opponent pinned at their 1 yard line has an expected value of +1.6 points. That means that if you have RP, you should punt on first down any time you have the ball inside your own 40. With the ball on your own 20, a punt is about equivalent in change in expected value to a 20-yard run or pass.
A typical fourth down will have a negative point expectation, which RP will convert into a +1.6 point expectation, even better than the 20-yard play.
If you could guarantee the equivalent of a 20-yard play on offense on every first down at your own 20, you'd pay a lot for that. I think RP is worth it.
Now, if I had Robo-kicker, I'd build around my defense, since every offensive drive is guaranteed to net 3 points no matter what. But Robo-punter? I'd definitely build around my offense.
Hell, RP could kick it OVER the board and through all the scaffolding.It's Robo-Punter.....ABSOLUTELY! It would be kicked at the perfect angle every time.Can he do this in Jerry World with out hitting the board?
Curve the bulletIt's Robo-Punter.....ABSOLUTELY! It would be kicked at the perfect angle every time.Can he do this in Jerry World with out hitting the board?
Robo-Punter would not have helped the Green Bay Packers this past weekend. But yes...he is worth the 1.1 pick at the very least.I'll take it a step further and say that any team in the NFL right now, no matter who they are, would instantly make the playoffs with Robo punter, and possibly win the super bowl.Whichver playoff team you put him on right now would automatically be a super bowl lock.That kind of field position would be impossible to defeat...unless you had an absolutely HORRIBLE defense and a terrible coaching staff.
We are definitely on the same page here.Curve the bullet
The beauty of RP is that all he would have to do is pick the perfect angle every time so that the ball always went out of bounds at the 1 yard line. The ball could be a mile in the air, but as long as it is out at the 1, the ball starts there. Poor refs though, trying to keep track of one of those.Honestly, give the Lions RP instead of Stafford this past year and they are the favorite to win it all with Daunte Culpepper at QB. Calvin may never have a catch over 40 yards again, since starting field position average to around the 40 for them.Hell, RP could kick it OVER the board and through all the scaffolding.
I assume you're just making a joke, but he would have helped the Pack. On their one punt, Arizona started at their own 41 and turned it into a FG. That could have been different. With ROBO-PUNTER, you are more careful with the ball and may have avoided those costly early turnovers and instead punted giving Arizona horrible field position. The Cardinals enjoyed great field position in that game.sho nuff said:Robo-Punter would not have helped the Green Bay Packers this past weekend. But yes...he is worth the 1.1 pick at the very least.I'll take it a step further and say that any team in the NFL right now, no matter who they are, would instantly make the playoffs with Robo punter, and possibly win the super bowl.Whichver playoff team you put him on right now would automatically be a super bowl lock.That kind of field position would be impossible to defeat...unless you had an absolutely HORRIBLE defense and a terrible coaching staff.
A joke...maybe.But start at the one or the 41...GB could not stop Warner all day long.As for more careful with early turnovers? The one was a fumble on a quick pass to Driver...the first was a pass...where Rodgers would not normally take that shot anyway...but I don't think he did it because of who the punter is.There was one punt in the game...even putting it at the one...I have 0 confidence the GB D would have stepped up.I assume you're just making a joke, but he would have helped the Pack. On their one punt, Arizona started at their own 41 and turned it into a FG. That could have been different. With ROBO-PUNTER, you are more careful with the ball and may have avoided those costly early turnovers and instead punted giving Arizona horrible field position. The Cardinals enjoyed great field position in that game.sho nuff said:Robo-Punter would not have helped the Green Bay Packers this past weekend. But yes...he is worth the 1.1 pick at the very least.I'll take it a step further and say that any team in the NFL right now, no matter who they are, would instantly make the playoffs with Robo punter, and possibly win the super bowl.Whichver playoff team you put him on right now would automatically be a super bowl lock.That kind of field position would be impossible to defeat...unless you had an absolutely HORRIBLE defense and a terrible coaching staff.
Of course not. But, the gameplan entering the game if you had RP would be to be as careful as possible and punt. If you get the opening kickoff, you should punt to pin the other team at the 1.A joke...maybe.But start at the one or the 41...GB could not stop Warner all day long.I assume you're just making a joke, but he would have helped the Pack. On their one punt, Arizona started at their own 41 and turned it into a FG. That could have been different. With ROBO-PUNTER, you are more careful with the ball and may have avoided those costly early turnovers and instead punted giving Arizona horrible field position. The Cardinals enjoyed great field position in that game.sho nuff said:Robo-Punter would not have helped the Green Bay Packers this past weekend.I'll take it a step further and say that any team in the NFL right now, no matter who they are, would instantly make the playoffs with Robo punter, and possibly win the super bowl.
Whichver playoff team you put him on right now would automatically be a super bowl lock.
That kind of field position would be impossible to defeat...unless you had an absolutely HORRIBLE defense and a terrible coaching staff.
But yes...he is worth the 1.1 pick at the very least.
As for more careful with early turnovers? The one was a fumble on a quick pass to Driver...the first was a pass...where Rodgers would not normally take that shot anyway...but I don't think he did it because of who the punter is.
The point with RP is that you'd punt more. It sounds odd, but it's true. As bad as the GB defense was last weekend, they would not have given up nearly as many points had they had RP. He'd affect your entire gameplan.There was one punt in the game...even putting it at the one...I have 0 confidence the GB D would have stepped up.
He'd be the greatest player in the history of the sport and the player who had the most impact on his team in the history of sports. ALL sports.Anyone who doesn't think he wouldn't be far and away the #1 overall pick, deserve the biggest contract in NFL history and be hands down MVP every single season doesn't know football at all.
C'mon people.... guaranteeing the opposition starts at the 1 yard line every time? I am guessing that team's average points against for the season with even an average defense would be less than 7, and that's all due to the punter.
Dude, ROBO-punter would be the biggest no-brainer pick in league history. You would see teams literally putting everything on the line for that pick. Whoever ended up with the #1 overall would gladly pay Robo-punter whatever they needed to. All you would have to do is field a decent defense and blind-squirrel-finds-a-nut type of offense and you would go undefeated.So in my internet travels I came across this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_Outsiders#ROBO-PUNTER
(I did a search here and didn't find anything about this.)I say ROBO-PUNTER is definitely worth the #1 overall pick. My buddy says it would be a horrible move that would cripple a franchise for years. Please help us settle this debate.ROBO-PUNTER is a term used to describe a theoretical robot (or possibly cyborg) punter whose punts -- through a combination of power, precision, and exaggerated hangtime - are downed at the opposing team's one-yard line every time.
The term came to prominence at Football Outsiders where it had its genesis during an off-season draft-related discussion. It was proposed that no punter, not even one as skilled as the one described above, could ever be worth the first pick in the draft or the multi-million-dollar salary such a pick would command.
As has been stated you would only need a killer D-line to win games and a decent secondary. You could literally take walk-ons at every offensive skill position and it wouldn't matter. You could build the entire offense (except ST o-line) off other teams camp cuts.Robopunter would go down as the best NFL player ever without ever scoring so much as a point.I guess. But by paying a punter all that money, you limit your self really badly at the other big money positions. teams that are forced to spend $$ on a # 1 QB have a hard time building around it. I can't imagine how dificult it would be build a great team if you're paying your punter 20X what everybody else is.Yea right!?!?!?!?!RP would provide:ugh. No thanks then.You can't invest that much money in a player that you will only use if you FAIL to score points.He's going to want to get paid like the #1 overall pick. So if he was available this year, he'd want Stafford money and then some.and i would take RP at 1.1 provided he didnt want to paid like a franchise QB, LT or pass rusher.
Amazing chances at getting safety, points, and the ball back with great field position.
Limit the opponents playbook right off the bat.
Exceptional field position on virtually every offensive series.
He would be the most dominating player the NFL has ever seen.
You can't hurt Peyton Maninng.Hasn't happened to Peyton Manning yet.Some coach in-division would definitely put a bounty out on him.One of your special teams scrubs getting a late hit/personal foul/ejection/fine/suspension trumps facing RP twice a year.
Robryan is worth it.Bryan Anger worth a 3rd...we are getting closer to the future.