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Rookie Draft War Room -- what's your plan? (1 Viewer)

The FFPC holds their rookie drafts in May, within a week or two of the conclusion of the NFL draft.
How would that change your strategy, if at all, compared to drafts during the preseason?

Our league also drafts starting early-mid May, so my post earlier was working on that assumption. That said, the only differences I really see is if someone had their knee explode and as a result a rookie is temporarily either more valuable given the roster blocker ahead of them is on IR, or they themselves have got injured, which unless I'm expecting them to contribute immediately I'm not going to hugely change for
 
If I can offer any advice at all, it would be to draft BPA and trade for need.
Totally agree and I would only look at position when I think the players are basically the same tier. For me, JSN and Gibbs are close enough that I would look at position when choosing between them.
Exactly.
Obviously my statement wasn’t meant all things being equal take the player that satisfies need. Isn’t that a given?
 
Obviously my statement wasn’t meant all things being equal take the player that satisfies need. Isn’t that a given?
Sure, just just adding some context for the particular JSN-Gibbs debate.
I have the 1.2 in one league and I’m still deciding who I want. I suppose landing spot could make the decision easier, but I typically don’t like that to influence my decision.
 
I have the 1.2 in one league and I’m still deciding who I want. I suppose landing spot could make the decision easier, but I typically don’t like that to influence my decision.
Yeah you are right that perceived quality of landing spots can change so fast. How much would you factor in draft capital though? If JSN falls to the mid 2nd? Or Gibbs sneaks into the back of the 1st? Does that matter for your or only if it’s a major difference from expectations?
 
In 7 leagues, but this is the one I have been thinking about the most. SF/TE Premium - Start 10: 1-2 QB, 2-5 RB, 3-6 WR, 1-4 TE no K no Def

I have 1.2, 1.4, 1.7, 1.11, and 2.4.

QB Trevor and Goff - and some backups Huntley, MInshew, C Rush, Stidham and Skylar
RB Swift and...not much
WR G Wilson, Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Wan'Dale, Gallup
TE Knox and Fant

Thinking I can compete 2024 and build this year.

Thinking QB at 1.2 and 1.4 because tough to get in SF, and maybe I can trade Goff to a contender (though I really like Goff this year). 1.7 - leaning RB (unless JSN available), 1.11 - Leaning TE, and 2.4 BPA but hopefully RB.

Or keep Goff and see what offers I get to trade out of 1.4 which I am guessing is last of QB Young, Stroud or Richardson.
 
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If I can offer any advice at all, it would be to draft BPA and trade for need.
Totally agree and I would only look at position when I think the players are basically the same tier. For me, JSN and Gibbs are close enough that I would look at position when choosing between them.
Exactly.
Obviously my statement wasn’t meant all things being equal take the player that satisfies need. Isn’t that a given?
Yes - but that wasn’t my point. I was saying even if all things weren’t even, they can be *close* and I’d still potentially draft for need.
 
Whelp, no surprise that a whole lot has changed since March. Bumping this for anyone that still has an upcoming rookie dynasty draft in August. Where are you picking and which players are you expecting to have a hard decision on?

I'm still at the 1.7 in a 1QB. Here's how I see it:


Top 3: Bijan, Gibbs, JSN. Won't need to worry about any of these guys. I did offer 1.7 and AJB for Bijan/1.1 and was turned down.

From there, I think it's pretty wide open for the next six or seven picks. A lot will depend on league format and roster. Here's where my draft board currently sits:

4. Kincaid - I know this is going to be wildly high for a lot of people. I blame Matt Waldman and the unadulterated thrill of enjoying the Kelce TE advantage for the past handful of seasons. If he has a shot to be the next elite TE that scores like WR, I will take my shot and accept the giant risks of drafting a rookie TE early.

5. Flowers - Another Waldman favorite and I'm hearing nothing that would talk me off of him. His talent jumps off the film.

6. Addison - I don't want to have him this high, but he seems so safe (aside from driving habits). He's polished. They need him to ascend quickly. Working opposite of Jefferson, I don't see how he flops. The fact that I'm in league with Vikings fans doesn't hurt either.

7. Johnston - Higher upside than Addison but a lot more risk. I faded him quite a bit out of the combine, but starting to come around to the ceiling and QB situation that he's walking into. Early reports seem to be glowing.

The other two that I'm still open to at #7: Charbonnet & A. Richardson. Would have considered both a lock at 1.7 at various points this offseason. Richardson, pretty easy to punt with Mahomes on roster in a 1QB. I would be looking a lot harder without a top 5 QB, and I'm still not dismissing the possibility. Charbs, even if you believe he has the talent to create a 50-50 fantasy split (a tall order), is that worthy of a #7? I'm not sure about that. There is league winning upside here in the event of an injury. More of a workhorse profile than any other RB that will be drafted later. He's still nice depth at RB without a KW3 injury, but I'm not sure that there's enough impact there to draft at 1.7. It's still very possible that I talk myself into either of these ahead of Addison and Johnston.


After these 9, I won't draft again until the #25 spot. I consider these guys an automatic in the unlikely event that they fall:

Kendre Miller, LaPorta, Roschon, Bigsby, Spears, Achane, Young, Stroud, Mayer.


Assuming these 18 names are all off the board, here's my very tentative draft board to #25:

19. Rashee Rice
20. Mims -- he's not related to Denzel, is he???
21. Downs
22. Prince
23. Musgrave
24. Sean Tucker
25. Zach Evans

With my next picks at #35 & #38:

26. Jayden Reed - belongs higher, my wr room is pushing him down my board
27. Penny - UFA
28. Mingo
29. Kraft
30. Abanikanda
31. Chase Brown
32. Eric Gray
33. Jerome Ford - UFA
34. Chiefs DST
35. Hull
36. McBride
37. Gus Edwards - UFA
38. Khalil Shakir - UFA
 
Whelp, no surprise that a whole lot has changed since March. Bumping this for anyone that still has an upcoming rookie dynasty draft in August. Where are you picking and which players are you expecting to have a hard decision on?

I'm still at the 1.7 in a 1QB. Here's how I see it:


Top 3: Bijan, Gibbs, JSN. Won't need to worry about any of these guys. I did offer 1.7 and AJB for Bijan/1.1 and was turned down.

From there, I think it's pretty wide open for the next six or seven picks. A lot will depend on league format and roster. Here's where my draft board currently sits:

4. Kincaid - I know this is going to be wildly high for a lot of people. I blame Matt Waldman and the unadulterated thrill of enjoying the Kelce TE advantage for the past handful of seasons. If he has a shot to be the next elite TE that scores like WR, I will take my shot and accept the giant risks of drafting a rookie TE early.

5. Flowers - Another Waldman favorite and I'm hearing nothing that would talk me off of him. His talent jumps off the film.

6. Addison - I don't want to have him this high, but he seems so safe (aside from driving habits). He's polished. They need him to ascend quickly. Working opposite of Jefferson, I don't see how he flops. The fact that I'm in league with Vikings fans doesn't hurt either.

7. Johnston - Higher upside than Addison but a lot more risk. I faded him quite a bit out of the combine, but starting to come around to the ceiling and QB situation that he's walking into. Early reports seem to be glowing.

The other two that I'm still open to at #7: Charbonnet & A. Richardson. Would have considered both a lock at 1.7 at various points this offseason. Richardson, pretty easy to punt with Mahomes on roster in a 1QB. I would be looking a lot harder without a top 5 QB, and I'm still not dismissing the possibility. Charbs, even if you believe he has the talent to create a 50-50 fantasy split (a tall order), is that worthy of a #7? I'm not sure about that. There is league winning upside here in the event of an injury. More of a workhorse profile than any other RB that will be drafted later. He's still nice depth at RB without a KW3 injury, but I'm not sure that there's enough impact there to draft at 1.7. It's still very possible that I talk myself into either of these ahead of Addison and Johnston.


After these 9, I won't draft again until the #25 spot. I consider these guys an automatic in the unlikely event that they fall:

Kendre Miller, LaPorta, Roschon, Bigsby, Spears, Achane, Young, Stroud, Mayer.


Assuming these 18 names are all off the board, here's my very tentative draft board to #25:

19. Rashee Rice
20. Mims -- he's not related to Denzel, is he???
21. Downs
22. Prince
23. Musgrave
24. Sean Tucker
25. Zach Evans

With my next picks at #35 & #38:

26. Jayden Reed - belongs higher, my wr room is pushing him down my board
27. Penny - UFA
28. Mingo
29. Kraft
30. Abanikanda
31. Chase Brown
32. Eric Gray
33. Jerome Ford - UFA
34. Chiefs DST
35. Hull
36. McBride
37. Gus Edwards - UFA
38. Khalil Shakir - UFA
I would endeavor everything I can to grab Anthony Richardson. He has immense upsides especially with the rushing department. He is completely raw but his work ethic will carry him forward to get over the hump. As for your #25, I would target RB such as Chase Brown or Zach Evans and if either of them isn't available, take either Rice, Mims, Reed, Mingo, or Musgrave. For 3rd round, go with the BPA (from the highest NFL draft position... Talent will find a way to get on the field and excel).
 
I'm still at the 1.7 in a 1QB. Here's how I see it:

I see it like you're at a bouncing baby tier break. I'm still paying attention. I have a draft in a week or two or so. I have the 1.6 this year in a ten-team league.

Robinson

---(break)---

Gibbs
JSN

---(break)---

Johnston
Kincaid
Addison

---(break)---

Miller
Flowers
Charbonnet
Richardson
Achane
et. al.

I've got Miller even higher than this (I drafted him 1.5 over Johnston, which might have been stupid) but this is a blend of consensus and who I like as of now.
 
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#3 Option: Kincaid -- This is my TE1 in the draft. I'm not sure that I believe the Kelce comps, but if he's 90% of what Ertz was at his peak he would be more than worthy of the 1.7 in this draft. A week ago I would have said that this is the favorite to be my selection. The medicals, along with the sensibility of waiting until #25/#28 to go after one of the other excellent TEs are why I'm probably now leaning against planting a flag as early as the 1.7.
Don't under-estimate the competition. Chemistry + Familiarity may outweigh....or dampen superior athleticism.
 
I am amazed Michael Wilson is not climbing boards. My draft is done back in May but have him just behind Rice in Sushi rankings. Also my league is PPR(TE is 2), only need to start 1 RB so the WR/ TE way above the RBs. SF also so Levis makes list

redo of draft
1. CJ Stroud. TD passes 6.
2. Anthony Richardson
3. Bryce Young
4. Bijan Robinson
5. JSN
6. Gibbs
7. Kincaid
8. Musgrave
9. LaPorta
10. Mayer
11. Addison
12. Q. Johnson
13. Rice
14. Flowers
15. Levis
16. Michael Wilson
17. Miller
18. Achane
19. Cedrick Tillman with Cooper hurting
20. Reed
21. Mims
22. Charbonnett
23. R. Johnson
24. Mingo
25. Prince
26.Luke Schoonmaker
27. Spears
28. Tucker
29. Hyatt
30. Downs
 
Drafting tonight in my oldest dynasty league, 1QB PPR league.

1 - Bijan no brainer
2 - Gibbs. I know this owner well and we talk all the time.
3 - JSN or QJ - guy has bupkis at WR but is a Niner fan/Seattle hater
4 - JSN or QJ, maybe ARich. Dude needs help at all positions.
5 - ARich 100% if he's there (same owner as #2 above). If it goes QJ 3 and ARich 4 he will jump at the chance to take JSN. If it's QJ that's left here, he's in a pickle and prob tries to trade back.
6 through 11 - some combination of Addison/Flowers/Kincaid/Achane/Miller/Charb
12 - my pick 👎

Just hoping that one of Young or Stroud goes in that 6-11 range to let somebody fall to me at 12, otherwise I'll (continue to) try and trade back. If the countdown hits zero with no deal then I'll take LaPorta.
 
Drafting tonight in my oldest dynasty league, 1QB PPR league.

1 - Bijan no brainer
2 - Gibbs. I know this owner well and we talk all the time.
3 - JSN or QJ - guy has bupkis at WR but is a Niner fan/Seattle hater
4 - JSN or QJ, maybe ARich. Dude needs help at all positions.
5 - ARich 100% if he's there (same owner as #2 above). If it goes QJ 3 and ARich 4 he will jump at the chance to take JSN. If it's QJ that's left here, he's in a pickle and prob tries to trade back.
6 through 11 - some combination of Addison/Flowers/Kincaid/Achane/Miller/Charb
12 - my pick 👎

Just hoping that one of Young or Stroud goes in that 6-11 range to let somebody fall to me at 12, otherwise I'll (continue to) try and trade back. If the countdown hits zero with no deal then I'll take LaPorta.

Glad I'm not the only one that has bumped LaPorta all the way up to my top 12. I'm also glad that I won't have to prove it. I would be really excited for anyone in the 6-11 falling to me at 12. Achane might be the exception for me in 1/2 PPR, but I can see where that might look better in a full PPR.
 
Disclaimer: My league is running back crazy (last year 10 of first 11 picks were RB). 12-team, 20-man, ppr, all TD 6 pt. The lineup is QRRWWFKD, which definitely gives more value to RB than a lot of leagues, but I still think RB is overvalued. I can try to capitalize on that by going for WR, but you still have to acquire RB's one way or another, and they won't be cheap in a league like this. This probably makes my draft plans less helpful to the average joe.

I have acquired more picks since the earlier plan I posted.

Draft will be likely right before regular season starts.

Current Roster:


Jalen Hurts, Geno Smith

Bijan Robinson
(foregone conclusion at 1.01), Travis Etienne, D'Andre Swift, Hasty, Sermon, McCormick

AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Jahan Dotson, Chris Godwin, Rashod Bateman, Pierce, Phillips, Bell


McLaughlin, Chargers DST

Picks #1 (alread accounted in roster as Bijan), #8, #9, #11, #13, #18, #19, #20.


#1 - Bijan Robinson

#8 and #9 - Smith-Njigba is the only non-RB I would take here. If he is gone, I will gladly take 2 out of Gibbs, Charbonnet, Miller, Achane, Roschon, Bigsby, Spears. I know that's crazy, over Addison, Johnston, Richardson, but that is just how it is.

#11 - If any if the above RB's are still there, I'd take one; otherwise I would grab one of Addison or Johnston.

#13 - If Addison or Johnston is there, take him; otherwise Chase Brown; if he's gone too ..... Then I have to decide between Flowers and Richardson. Wouldn't really be happy with either one.

#18, #19, and #20 - whoever is left, likely the next tier of RB's (Abanikanda, Evans, Tucker, McBride, Vaughn, Hull). If any of the top 4 WR or top 3 QB are there, I am taking at least one.
 
Drafting tonight in my oldest dynasty league, 1QB PPR league.

1 - Bijan no brainer
2 - Gibbs. I know this owner well and we talk all the time.
3 - JSN or QJ - guy has bupkis at WR but is a Niner fan/Seattle hater
4 - JSN or QJ, maybe ARich. Dude needs help at all positions.
5 - ARich 100% if he's there (same owner as #2 above). If it goes QJ 3 and ARich 4 he will jump at the chance to take JSN. If it's QJ that's left here, he's in a pickle and prob tries to trade back.
6 through 11 - some combination of Addison/Flowers/Kincaid/Achane/Miller/Charb
12 - my pick 👎

Just hoping that one of Young or Stroud goes in that 6-11 range to let somebody fall to me at 12, otherwise I'll (continue to) try and trade back. If the countdown hits zero with no deal then I'll take LaPorta.

Just finished our rookie draft. 1QB, PPR

  1. Bijan
  2. Gibbs
  3. Addison (surprise)
  4. Charbonnet (WTF)
  5. JSN (same owner as 1.02)
  6. ARich
  7. Kincaid
  8. QJ (same owner as 1.01)
  9. Achane
  10. Mims
  11. Young (same owner as 1.03)
  12. Miller (me)
As I mentioned above, I had a "top 10" and was just hoping that Young or Stroud plus ARich went in the first so any one of the ten would fall to me at 12. When Miller and Flowers both were there, I found myself perplexed. Didn't have a great feel on how to order those 6-10 guys in their tier, I just figured I'd get whatever was left. Ended up taking Miller since I'm pretty deep at WR already, and I'm a Saints fan, and this is more fun when you have your team's guys, right? Flowers went immediately at 2.01.

Glad I'm not the only one that has bumped LaPorta all the way up to my top 12. I'm also glad that I won't have to prove it. I would be really excited for anyone in the 6-11 falling to me at 12. Achane might be the exception for me in 1/2 PPR, but I can see where that might look better in a full PPR.
LaPorta ended up lasting until 2.06. I ended up taking Musgrave at 2.12.
 
I am amazed Michael Wilson is not climbing boards. My draft is done back in May but have him just behind Rice in Sushi rankings. Also my league is PPR(TE is 2), only need to start 1 RB so the WR/ TE way above the RBs. SF also so Levis makes list

redo of draft
1. CJ Stroud. TD passes 6.
2. Anthony Richardson
3. Bryce Young
4. Bijan Robinson
5. JSN
6. Gibbs
7. Kincaid
8. Musgrave
9. LaPorta
10. Mayer
11. Addison
12. Q. Johnson
13. Rice
14. Flowers
15. Levis
16. Michael Wilson
17. Miller
18. Achane
19. Cedrick Tillman with Cooper hurting
20. Reed
21. Mims
22. Charbonnett
23. R. Johnson
24. Mingo
25. Prince
26.Luke Schoonmaker
27. Spears
28. Tucker
29. Hyatt
30. Downs
Musgrave at 8?
 
I am amazed Michael Wilson is not climbing boards. My draft is done back in May but have him just behind Rice in Sushi rankings. Also my league is PPR(TE is 2), only need to start 1 RB so the WR/ TE way above the RBs. SF also so Levis makes list

redo of draft
1. CJ Stroud. TD passes 6.
2. Anthony Richardson
3. Bryce Young
4. Bijan Robinson
5. JSN
6. Gibbs
7. Kincaid
8. Musgrave
9. LaPorta
10. Mayer
11. Addison
12. Q. Johnson
13. Rice
14. Flowers
15. Levis
16. Michael Wilson
17. Miller
18. Achane
19. Cedrick Tillman with Cooper hurting
20. Reed
21. Mims
22. Charbonnett
23. R. Johnson
24. Mingo
25. Prince
26.Luke Schoonmaker
27. Spears
28. Tucker
29. Hyatt
30. Downs
Musgrave at 8?
Loving everything that I read. He is my bet to have a top 10 rookie season of all time. Packer WRs are okay. No Adams, Diggs, St. Brown that are top dogs. think he has bestchance tosuceed early and has had great reports. TE is 2 pt per reception which adds value. He has had nice rapport with Love also. Great size and speed. Very high on him. Like the other 3 also for nice TE class.
 
Torn at 1.02

Leaning JSN or Richardson

We are a points per first down league, no PPR, so WRs slightly devaued and QB value is near superflex levels.
 
Torn at 1.02

Leaning JSN or Richardson

We are a points per first down league, no PPR, so WRs slightly devaued and QB value is near superflex levels.
I recently joined one of these points per first down leagues And have no idea how to value positions as a result. In your experience is this how it usually plays out in this format where wrs are somewhat devalued and qbs become much more important? Is your league non super flex? (I’d assume that based on your last comment)
 
I recently joined one of these points per first down leagues And have no idea how to value positions as a result. In your experience is this how it usually plays out in this format where wrs are somewhat devalued and qbs become much more important? Is your league non super flex? (I’d assume that based on your last comment)

It's not superflex, but the PPFD rule really makes QBs very valuable because they score so many points.
 
I recently joined one of these points per first down leagues And have no idea how to value positions as a result. In your experience is this how it usually plays out in this format where wrs are somewhat devalued and qbs become much more important? Is your league non super flex? (I’d assume that based on your last comment)

It's not superflex, but the PPFD rule really makes QBs very valuable because they score so many points.
Makes total sense. I’ve got to assume points per first down makes the scrambling Konami code QBs even more valuable than they already are in PPR or standard leagues?
 
Don't under-estimate the competition. Chemistry + Familiarity may outweigh....or dampen superior athleticism
Superior athleticism doesn't get trumped at TE often. The young whiteQB from Wyoming and the young white TE from Utah.

Yeah, I'm gonna place a bet in they become Thunder Buddies for life
 
Dynasty 14 team league ... had picks 2.03 and 2.09

My plan was to hopefully get a TE at 2.03 (I have Kelce and am riding him til the soon to be end) and then best available at 2.09. That all changed when I was offered THock for Hollywood Brown and 2.09 and then Miller fell to me at 2.03.

Good day!
 
I recently joined one of these points per first down leagues And have no idea how to value positions as a result. In your experience is this how it usually plays out in this format where wrs are somewhat devalued and qbs become much more important? Is your league non super flex? (I’d assume that based on your last comment)

It's not superflex, but the PPFD rule really makes QBs very valuable because they score so many points.
But that boost is spread across the board, right?

So like QB's as a whole score more points. While the points are up--is the VORP dramatically higher? I guess the better question is--are people living that higher valuation? Are people paying up like crazy for QB's in trades?

If you think it's a situation where you can trade Richardson for a haul, then sure. Otherwise, I think I'd rather go Gibbs, JSN.
 
I recently joined one of these points per first down leagues And have no idea how to value positions as a result. In your experience is this how it usually plays out in this format where wrs are somewhat devalued and qbs become much more important? Is your league non super flex? (I’d assume that based on your last comment)

It's not superflex, but the PPFD rule really makes QBs very valuable because they score so many points.
But that boost is spread across the board, right?

So like QB's as a whole score more points. While the points are up--is the VORP dramatically higher? I guess the better question is--are people living that higher valuation? Are people paying up like crazy for QB's in trades?

If you think it's a situation where you can trade Richardson for a haul, then sure. Otherwise, I think I'd rather go Gibbs, JSN.
Yes. ANY first down gets a point whether it’s passing rushing or receiving. And because qbs can run or pass for a first down I assume this makes them pretty valuable even in 1qb league but this is what I’m trying to figure out
 
I recently joined one of these points per first down leagues And have no idea how to value positions as a result. In your experience is this how it usually plays out in this format where wrs are somewhat devalued and qbs become much more important? Is your league non super flex? (I’d assume that based on your last comment)

It's not superflex, but the PPFD rule really makes QBs very valuable because they score so many points.
But that boost is spread across the board, right?

So like QB's as a whole score more points. While the points are up--is the VORP dramatically higher? I guess the better question is--are people living that higher valuation? Are people paying up like crazy for QB's in trades?

If you think it's a situation where you can trade Richardson for a haul, then sure. Otherwise, I think I'd rather go Gibbs, JSN.
Yes. ANY first down gets a point whether it’s passing rushing or receiving. And because qbs can run or pass for a first down I assume this makes them pretty valuable even in 1qb league but this is what I’m trying to figure out
The point though is that what you're saying applies to ALL QB's. The tide is going to give rise to all boats in a similar manner. So while QB's all score more, their VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) remains roughly the same.

The idea is "Look at how much more QB's score," but they all score that high. The positional advantage doesn't change so much. You don't get to say "Richardson had 45 this week, so I win." The other guy's QB probably isn't insanely far off.

So you've still got to focus on the advantages to be gained at other positions.

Gibbs has insane draft capital for a RB. JSN is about as can't miss as they come.
 
Yes. ANY first down gets a point whether it’s passing rushing or receiving. And because qbs can run or pass for a first down I assume this makes them pretty valuable even in 1qb league but this is what I’m trying to figure out

that's it, our QBs can score in the 70s.
 

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