Running back landing spots (1 Viewer)

[Aunt Jemima]

Where do you think the top talent lands??who are the running backs most likely to take a big hit during the draft that we should sell now?? Where do you want to see your top prospects land?

My best guesses -

Chicago - Langford is a pretty average talent, they've been looking

Miami - They have been searching, Ajayi unproven

NYG - nobody talented here really, Vereen is a 3rd down back

Indianapolis - need is obvious, Gore is 33

Eagles - Ryan Matthews too fragile not to get company

Baltimore - Forsett is another year older, Allen was mediocre when he had the chance last year

Carolina - Not a CAP beiever, think Stewart gets another backfield mate

Cleveland - Don't think the new coaching staff will put up with Crowell

Washington - Is Matt Jones really the answer?

Others - Seattle, SF???

top sells - Ajayi, Langford, Matthews, Jones for me

 

[Poncho]

I think the only RB's who will kill Langford or ajayis value is Elliott and Henry. If Chicago or Miami draft a RB in rd3-5 I don't see them as any upgrade over what these teams currently have. I think Elliott will get drafted by dallas, philly or giants....

 

[bostonfred]

Good list.  I'd add that Dallas and New England seem fairly likely to add a guy.  Oakland is in the conversation. Minnesota, Green bay and New Orleans could look to add depth.   

 

[Snorkelson]

I think there are some guys who will go later that may end up in decent backup situations. New England needs a back, New Orleans could add a guy with Khiry gone, Dallas could add another body, gb, Seattle, kc, Denver all could use depth. Some teams could use an upgrade but no team that has clear lead job up for grabs (am I missing anywhere?). Either a team has 2-3 decent serviceable options or the lead job is a clear #1. 

 

[mikel2014]

Giants and Colts seem like the most wide open situations.   Anyone who goes there in the 3rd round or earlier will be talked about as the opening day starter. 

Ravens, Eagles, Bears, Ravens, Redskins, and Dolphins all could bring in guys to compete. These are teams with weaker starters penciled in. 

 

[BoltBacker]

I think if Elliot goes to any any team in the league the previous guy is a "sell". No need to list off the two thirds of the league that could improve their backfield by drafting him.

Henry doesn't seem like a 3-down back and may not even be all that good in the wrong offense.... so really aren't all these other RB's in the draft just RBBC? Yeah, it will hurt a RBBC back if their team drafts another RBBC back.

 

[menobrown]

I think the only RB's who will kill Langford or ajayis value is Elliott and Henry. 

I think that's wishful thinking for Langford and Ajayi owners, I see plenty of RB's who I rate better or at least turn it into a full fledged RBBC.

 

[Poncho]

I think that's wishful thinking for Langford and Ajayi owners, I see plenty of RB's who I rate better or at least turn it into a full fledged RBBC.

I think people are discounting Langford and ajayi a bit early. The RB's drafted later in the draft are probably as talented but they have a year less in that system which is why I would give the edge to Langford and ajayi.

 

[menobrown]

Where do you think the top talent lands??who are the running backs most likely to take a big hit during the draft that we should sell now?? Where do you want to see your top prospects land?

My best guesses -

Chicago - Langford is a pretty average talent, they've been looking

Miami - They have been searching, Ajayi unproven

NYG - nobody talented here really, Vereen is a 3rd down back

Indianapolis - need is obvious, Gore is 33

Eagles - Ryan Matthews too fragile not to get company

Baltimore - Forsett is another year older, Allen was mediocre when he had the chance last year

Carolina - Not a CAP beiever, think Stewart gets another backfield mate

Cleveland - Don't think the new coaching staff will put up with Crowell

Washington - Is Matt Jones really the answer?

Others - Seattle, SF???

top sells - Ajayi, Langford, Matthews, Jones for me

Agree with most of this list and top guys you listed as sells, out of those sells I'd feel more comfortable with Jones holding his value then the other 3.

Brief comments/predictions on each with some additons.

Chicago- a lot of reports they want to run a RBBC which you could actually take as maybe good news if you own Langford as teams wanting to run a RBBC probably won't take Elliot or invest overly high in a RB. But then again they did offer CJ Anderson the most money. Predicition-mid round RB with Langford being afforded opportunity as lead dog of RBBC to open the season. That and/or Hillman joining the mix.

Miami-I don't think Elliot would get past them, they seem to be on the hunt for a RB more than any team in the league. I see Hillman going here or Chicago but if he goes here they will be far from done. I think they go RB early, round one if Elliot is available.

Giants-Rashad Jennings closed strong, he's older but without much wear. Dan Graziano, very plugged in Giants beat writer, has insisted multiple times that despite the Giants defensive FA signings he think this draft is all about defense. He's swatted down multiple suggestions the team would look at Elliot or Treadwell in round one. I predict a late round RB, not a priority.

Indy-Elliot probably won't make it that far but he for sure won't make it past them. Huge need for them and I see them getting one early in the draft.

Ravens- people forget Taliffierrio had topped Allen on the initial depth chart and looked slimmer and better than his rookie season. I think they prioritize the D and OL early and maybe address RB with late round pick.

Eagles-Another big need, they dangled Mathews, my prediction right now as the team that drafts Elliot.

Carolina-for sure need to upgrade complement to go with Stewart and they will draft a RB in early to mid rounds.

Cleveland- Grossi, the grumpy Browns beat writers, insists like it's fact the team will be running a 3 headed RBBC next season which means an addition is coming.

Washington- they've got an awesome talent evaluating GM and I think he'll identify a nice complement or comp for Jones in mid round range.

Others:

Seattle-prior to signing Michael they said they needed to keep Rawls some help. I don't think re-signing Michael took them out of the market.

Raiders- I don't think they like Latavius all that much and I'd have listed him in top sell group. If Lynch actually changes his mind and wants to play I think Seattle will let him out of his deal and he'll be a Raider but if not I think they go RB and kind of early. Another team that I do not think would pass on Elliot if he made it to them.

Dallas- I think they approach draft same way as last year, if they see value at RB they take it but not going to press it. I think they will end up taking a RB but not in first two rounds.

Steelers- Bell may not be ready to start the season and can 33 year old D-WILL do it again?

I could pretty much list every team. You know how the Ted Thompson the Packer GM has a philosophy of trying to take a QB in every draft? I think most NFL teams should do the same. Unlike QB's they won't create big trade value any RB taken after like round 2 you get to own for 4 years at around half a million a year.

 

[BoltBacker]

I think people are discounting Langford and ajayi a bit early. The RB's drafted later in the draft are probably as talented but they have a year less in that system which is why I would give the edge to Langford and ajayi.

Not only that but last years RB class was better and deeper. Let's not forget that Ajayi only fell last year due to medical concerns that haven't hindered him yet. Would a healthy Ajayi be much different than the #3 RB in this class? I am not a huge fan of Langford but he was hand chosen by Fox/etc so they are fans.

 

[menobrown]

Not only that but last years RB class was better and deeper. Let's not forget that Ajayi only fell last year due to medical concerns that haven't hindered him yet. Would a healthy Ajayi be much different than the #3 RB in this class? I am not a huge fan of Langford but he was hand chosen by Fox/etc so they are fans.

That was the narrative on Ajayi, not sure it's really that true or cost him a steep drop.

Any RB the Bears draft this year would also be hand chosen by Fox.

 

[BoltBacker]

That was the narrative on Ajayi, not sure it's really that true or cost him a steep drop.

Any RB the Bears draft this year would also be hand chosen by Fox.

But it's a pretty well accepted narrative.

I only mentioned the hand chosen bit about Fox as a reason they may not be investing even a mid-round pick on RB again this draft. While Langford/Carey/Rodgers isn't a particularly exciting group in the backfield, one might expect them to focus more on the OL and continue to work on that defense in the draft. On paper the defense should take a step forward after FA, but after giving up 377yds/game it probably still needs even more help than the RB position. Next year is supposed to be a better class for RB's than this one if the experts are to be believed.

 

[menobrown]

But it's a pretty well accepted narrative.

By who? Not by me, I mean I think at best it might have cost him a round or something but I don't buy it causing a big drop for him and never did.

On the Bears I don't disagree with anything you just said, but we can't ignore the fact they tried to pony  up for CJ Anderson either and for me I came away very unimpressed with Langford. 

 

[Aunt Jemima]

But it's a pretty well accepted narrative.

I only mentioned the hand chosen bit about Fox as a reason they may not be investing even a mid-round pick on RB again this draft. While Langford/Carey/Rodgers isn't a particularly exciting group in the backfield, one might expect them to focus more on the OL and continue to work on that defense in the draft. On paper the defense should take a step forward after FA, but after giving up 377yds/game it probably still needs even more help than the RB position. Next year is supposed to be a better class for RB's than this one if the experts are to be believed.

I may be a bit naive here but I don't think Fox is thinking about what running backs will be available next year. Fantasy owners may do that but I don't think NFL coaches can afford to think that way and don't.

 

[BoltBacker]

I may be a bit naive here but I don't think Fox is thinking about what running backs will be available next year. Fantasy owners may do that but I don't think NFL coaches can afford to think that way and don't.

I think the other way, fantasy owners get pre-occupied by who is RB1 while Fox and the Bears can only afford to think of improving the entire team because they care more about team wins than the stats of their RB1.

 

[mikel2014]

I may be a bit naive here but I don't think Fox is thinking about what running backs will be available next year. Fantasy owners may do that but I don't think NFL coaches can afford to think that way and don't.

Just as a counter to that point, the Jaguars front office discussed last year how they felt Fowler was the best edge rusher they'd be able to get last year or this. So there is some thought somewhere into what may be available down the line. Though I do agree the RB position is probably less likely for that to factor in than a top 3 pick. 

 

[saintfool]

chatter here in Chicago is that Langford and Carey are not in any jeopardy. they performed well enough (and for Carey, not a moment too soon) to earn a full audition for this year. they have too many holes to invest heavily in a RB in early or late rounds. short of Elliott, i don't see them chasing anyone until the later rounds.

in NO, Spiller and Ingram are there. they like Hightower and he fits their scheme. i'd be shocked if he wasn't brought back. he might not stay healthy but he's a great #3 RB signing.

 

[anakin]

The earliest Pittsburgh goes RB is 6th round.  They need defensive line, defensive back, linebacker help, and possibly o-line help before worrying about backing up Bell and D-Will (who has only had 200 carries or more in four of his ten NFL seasons). 

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

By who? Not by me, I mean I think at best it might have cost him a round or something but I don't buy it causing a big drop for him and never did.

On the Bears I don't disagree with anything you just said, but we can't ignore the fact they tried to pony  up for CJ Anderson either and for me I came away very unimpressed with Langford. 

The cj anderson thing is weird. I think fox and gase both liked him alot and went after him because of the cheap tender and their familiarity with him. I dont think chicago has been linked to any other rbs in free agecy. 

Ajayi owners should be a little more nervous than langford owners . imo

 

[menobrown]

The earliest Pittsburgh goes RB is 6th round.  They need defensive line, defensive back, linebacker help, and possibly o-line help before worrying about backing up Bell and D-Will (who has only had 200 carries or more in four of his ten NFL seasons). 

They needed almost all of those things last year and took a WR in the third round.

 

[barackdhouse]

Carey and Langford will share the duties this year.  They'll pick up a cheap back in the draft or the wire to compete with and to give depth, but those two are a timeshare. I'd rather have Carey for free and see if he wins out. Otherwise just another RBBC.  

 

[Poncho]

Carey and Langford will share the duties this year.  They'll pick up a cheap back in the draft or the wire to compete with and to give depth, but those two are a timeshare. I'd rather have Carey for free and see if he wins out. Otherwise just another RBBC.  

wasn't much of a time share last year when forte was out as I recall.....

 

[barackdhouse]

wasn't much of a time share last year when forte was out as I recall.....

Yeah you're right. Carey got his share, though,  got a lot of red zone looks, the coaches like him. Langford did get the main share, though. I think their split will be closer this year. 

 

[Yenrub]

Giants-Rashad Jennings closed strong, he's older but without much wear. Dan Graziano, very plugged in Giants beat writer, has insisted multiple times that despite the Giants defensive FA signings he think this draft is all about defense. He's swatted down multiple suggestions the team would look at Elliot or Treadwell in round one. I predict a late round RB, not a priority.

As it stands now Elliot would be a luxury that the Giants can't seem to afford. Jennings, Darkwa, Williams and Vereen give them adequate depth at the RB position.

They have holes at other positions that must be filled. If they go offense I would guess it would be WR or OT. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Yeah you're right. Carey got his share, though,  got a lot of red zone looks, the coaches like him. Langford did get the main share, though. I think their split will be closer this year. 

Here are the per week snap counts for all RB on the Bears in 2015.

Week 1

Forte 69

Langford 3

Rodgers 8

Week 2

Forte 48

Langford 13

Rodgers 11

Week 3

Forte 69

Langford 3

Rodgers 8

Week 4

Forte 41

Langford 0

Rodgers 7

Week 5

Forte 69

Langford 7

Rodgers 6

Week 6

Forte 68

Langford 15

BYE

Week 8 Forte injured causing him to miss half of this game.

Forte 29

Langford 33

Week 9 Chargers

Langford 54

Carey 16

Smith 3

Week 10 Rams

Langford 44

Carey 22

Smith 1

Week 11 Broncos

Langford 50

Carey 13

Smith 0

Week 12              Packers Forte returns from 4 weeks recovering

Forte 37

Langford 30

Week 13                              49ers

Forte 44

Langford 28

Carey 6

Week 14                              Redskins

Forte 28

Langford 31

Week 15                              Vikings

Forte 30

Langford 28

Carey 6

Week 16                            Bucs

Forte 28

Langford 38

Carey 10

Week 17                              Lions

Forte 43

Langford 14

Carey 4

Carey's best games were against the Rams in a 37-13 blow out where the Bears ran the ball 37 times. Langford had 20 carries for 73 yards 1TD 9 targets 7 receptions 109 yards and a TD. The Buccaneers game where the Bears ran the ball 39 times and Carey scored 2TD.

I think it is pretty clear that a timeshare was not what they were doing prior to Forte being injured. Once Langford proved he could be relied upon in a similar fashion to Forte, that changed and he and Forte split time once he returned. In week 17 they rested Langford and let Forte finish the season with the majority of the snaps again.

Langford was only a 4th round pick and so may be always seen as a bridge player. I thought he played well and got better with more opportunity. Enough for the Bears to let Forte go with some confidence in what Langford can do. 

Where Cary fits into this is backup and perhaps COP in a timeshare unless another player is added through the draft clearly better.

Fox has shown a tendency to like a big powerful RB. So I could see Henry possibly being an option in the second round that would cause a timeshare between Henry and Langford where Langford was more the COP runner and 3rd down RB.

Booker would push Langford. Not sure if I would be too concerned about the other rookie RBs coming in this year being head and shoulders better than Langford. Maybe Carey.

 

[anakin]

They needed almost all of those things last year and took a WR in the third round.

Because the team knew Martavis Bryant was getting suspended and...

 

[Borden]

I'm not sure what the intent of this thread is. Not being rude, I just don't know what the idea is. 

Are we naming the teams that could use help are RB? Are we ordering RB need by most to least? Are we going with draftees only since FA's are mostly signed? Are we going with likely hood of player X going to a certain team? Or are we going with best fits? After all this, are we going with how much of an impact any new RB to the roster has on certain RBs? There seems to be a lot going on right now. 

 

[Aunt Jemima]

intent was for those of us in dynasty leagues to get some feedback on which current rbs are likely to take a hit in the draft so we can try to sell before the value goes through the floor next month

 

[Crippler]

Or to have a pre determined list to see what places will bring value to rookies if all other things are equal. I enjoy the listings of best spots to land. 

So Rb gets taken in round 4 by Rams or bears, we know the Bears will get drafted 1st

 

[Borden]

intent was for those of us in dynasty leagues to get some feedback on which current rbs are likely to take a hit in the draft so we can try to sell before the value goes through the floor next month

Got it. Thanks. 

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Predicting the future is tough business. There are only two backs henry and elliot that would totally destroy the entrenched players values.  

Nfl teams need depth at all spots. Good thread. 

I think nyg. Indy. Philly and miami are obvious spots for new rbs 

 

[barackdhouse]

Here are the per week snap counts for all RB on the Bears in 2015.

Week 1

Forte 69

Langford 3

Rodgers 8

Week 2

Forte 48

Langford 13

Rodgers 11

Week 3

Forte 69

Langford 3

Rodgers 8

Week 4

Forte 41

Langford 0

Rodgers 7

Week 5

Forte 69

Langford 7

Rodgers 6

Week 6

Forte 68

Langford 15

BYE

Week 8 Forte injured causing him to miss half of this game.

Forte 29

Langford 33

Week 9 Chargers

Langford 54

Carey 16

Smith 3

Week 10 Rams

Langford 44

Carey 22

Smith 1

Week 11 Broncos

Langford 50

Carey 13

Smith 0

Week 12              Packers Forte returns from 4 weeks recovering

Forte 37

Langford 30

Week 13                              49ers

Forte 44

Langford 28

Carey 6

Week 14                              Redskins

Forte 28

Langford 31

Week 15                              Vikings

Forte 30

Langford 28

Carey 6

Week 16                            Bucs

Forte 28

Langford 38

Carey 10

Week 17                              Lions

Forte 43

Langford 14

Carey 4

Carey's best games were against the Rams in a 37-13 blow out where the Bears ran the ball 37 times. Langford had 20 carries for 73 yards 1TD 9 targets 7 receptions 109 yards and a TD. The Buccaneers game where the Bears ran the ball 39 times and Carey scored 2TD.

I think it is pretty clear that a timeshare was not what they were doing prior to Forte being injured. Once Langford proved he could be relied upon in a similar fashion to Forte, that changed and he and Forte split time once he returned. In week 17 they rested Langford and let Forte finish the season with the majority of the snaps again.

Langford was only a 4th round pick and so may be always seen as a bridge player. I thought he played well and got better with more opportunity. Enough for the Bears to let Forte go with some confidence in what Langford can do. 

Where Cary fits into this is backup and perhaps COP in a timeshare unless another player is added through the draft clearly better.

Fox has shown a tendency to like a big powerful RB. So I could see Henry possibly being an option in the second round that would cause a timeshare between Henry and Langford where Langford was more the COP runner and 3rd down RB.

Booker would push Langford. Not sure if I would be too concerned about the other rookie RBs coming in this year being head and shoulders better than Langford. Maybe Carey.

I never said they were in a timeshare last year. I said I think they will this year. When Forte went down, Carey got 31 carries to Langfords 50. Not 50/50 but still a share for a small time. Carey got some goal line looks as well. I'm avoiding this backfield was the main point. 

 

[Aunt Jemima]

where does Elliot land now?? I think we can say Philly is out now. Is someone going to trade up to get him? The team moving up I'm guessing is Miami, if they don't I think he winds up a Bear

 

[Buffaloes]

Denver should add a RB within the 1st 3 rounds imo. not sure why Hillman was re-signed

a RB like Booker or Dixon makes sense given CJA's skills set

 

[the spanker]

Aunt Jemima that's how I see things shaking out.

I do think the Dolphins will trade up because they are the most RB needy team right now.

If they don't maybe they try to sign Arian Foster later?

 

[Sabertooth]

Where do you think the top talent lands??who are the running backs most likely to take a big hit during the draft that we should sell now?? Where do you want to see your top prospects land?

My best guesses -

Chicago - Langford is a pretty average talent, they've been looking

Miami - They have been searching, Ajayi unproven

NYG - nobody talented here really, Vereen is a 3rd down back

Indianapolis - need is obvious, Gore is 33

Eagles - Ryan Matthews too fragile not to get company

Baltimore - Forsett is another year older, Allen was mediocre when he had the chance last year

Carolina - Not a CAP beiever, think Stewart gets another backfield mate

Cleveland - Don't think the new coaching staff will put up with Crowell

Washington - Is Matt Jones really the answer?

Others - Seattle, SF???

top sells - Ajayi, Langford, Matthews, Jones for me

The comment about Crowell is puzzling?  I haven't heard anything since he was drafted.  

 

[Biabreakable]

Aunt Jemima that's how I see things shaking out.

I do think the Dolphins will trade up because they are the most RB needy team right now.

If they don't maybe they try to sign Arian Foster later?

Jay Ajayi and to a lesser extent Damien Williams are both quality RB. 

 

[Sabertooth]

I'd love to see Green Bay pick someone.  I was hoping they'd sign Hillman but they didn't.

 

[mikel2014]

I'd love to see Green Bay pick someone.  I was hoping they'd sign Hillman but they didn't.

Green Bay with someone like Tyler Ervin would be sick. I'd be all over Ervin in rookie draft 2nd rounds.