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Running backs - get 'em. Trust me. (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Judge Smails
- Start date
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Your tier list mirrors their ADPs, obviously. However, they are all far from a sure thing. I'll just quote Mathew Berry, reluctantly "Over the past three years, 42 percent of players who finished as top-20 fantasy running backs were not drafted as such." That was said in 2012. This shouldn't be surprising, as the RB position is far and away the most volatile fantasy position.
Point is, you're always going to be taking a gamble. Me slightly reaching for Murray isn't inherently more risky than grabbing someone like Bush, who you listed. To be fair, Murray is the only RB I've considered reaching for, as I view him to be slightly undervalued.
BigJim®
Footballguy
I realize you didn't mean this as funny, but it sort of is. My immediate thought was "Oh, just that and you're gold with your concept?"
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
It's definitely possible to snipe out a super sleeper like ALMO, Foster and etc., likely before it even comes to waivers, but it's not exactly a strategy I would lean on. It's not that I don't trust myself to spot gems like Morris, I just think it's a bit too high variance/rare to count on. Late round RBs are simply lottery tickets. We can tweak the odds with a bit of research but ultimately it's a crapshoot.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
RBs get injured more than most positions so there is a lot of turnover. The injuries are difficult to predict, but also baked into ADP. All we can do is look at talent and opportunity. Every pick in fantasy is a gamble, but I think that there is a clear group of RBs that present a combination of talent, opportunity and track record that differentiates them from the other RBs.
chickensoup
Footballguy
Oh you mean the once a decade time that a guy could have started on waivers and was a week 1 starter that put up top 10 numbers? That's really your strategy?
The high turnover at RB is almost exclusively due to injury. You cannot go into the year relying on that. Especially this year with so many RB coming into the year with little question of health or their status as a starter.
The turnover part also misses a critical part. So e guys that leave RB1status (because of injury) return to RB1 status when they get healthy. Like Charles and AP last year. Or I could see it happening with Matthews if he plays 16 this year. Or MJD if he plays like he has at most points in his career outside of his injury last year.
You're going to have a hard time convincing me though that staying away from the RB run completely is anything but foolish this year. Too much perceived job security and very few nagging injuries that are giving large value discounts. Noone is building their RB stable with an Alfred Morris from waivers and Doug Martin in the 4th round like last year and acting confidently about it because who are those guys that are going to emerge? Do you really trust Milker or Lacy is going to usurp the Ray Rices or Steven Jackson's barring injury? And aren't those guys as likely to get injured?
There's just too much clarity of health and job security to do that. Last year was truly odd. The best RB the NFL may ever see was a second round pick. Don't let last years happenings let you do something foolish like upside down draft. Neglecting a RB in the first 2 rounds is fantasy suicide this year no matter what VBD numbers say
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
pfft, guppy. I told my commish that I would be skipping the draft and building my team solely off of waivers, and that I would have this year's Arian Foster, Alfred Morris, and Marques Colston on my roster before week 1.
(HULK)
(Smash)
No Spiller?I'm picking 11th on Thursday night. I assume someone will pick Calvin in front me, so my RB1 will be whichever one of these 10 that fall:
AP, Spiller, Rice, McCoy, Charles, Foster,Richardson, Lynch, Martin, Morris
For pick 2.2, I'm VERY strongly leaning towards taking someone from this tier:
Forte, SJax, MJD, CJ
I think at least 3 of the 4 will be there, leaning towards CJ over the rest (I know most people like Forte best, but I just don't see it).
I've mocked this about 100 times, if I don't nab an RB there, I'm left with crap at RB by 3.11. And this league in particular is RB, RB, WR, WR, Flex, so RBs go fast and furious.
And, if he's there at 3.11, I'd probably draft David Wilson even after going RB/RB. WR is a deep pool that never runs out this year. And after the heavy RB run, at 4.2 guys like Fitz and Andre and Roddy have fallen and will be there.
(HULK)
(Smash)
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Really? Rejected, give me QB 10-12 in round 9-11 all day over spending a 3rd round pick on Manning.
I never said it was my strategy to find a once in a decade guy on waivers. I said my strategy was to load up and try and win with strength across the board at QB, WR1, WR2, WR3, and TE, while trying to get by at RB. I was just saying that if you do happen to also then land a ww rb, due to injury or w/e, then your team should definitely make the playoffs, given your relative strength at the other positions.
If a guy is willing to chase the run and pick question marks like Miller, DMC, etc., I'm willing to roll the dice and compete against him with top shelf WRs instead.
EDIT: Some ADP data to mull over:
In a 12 teamer...
Round 2: RB 12-15 vs. WR 2-6
Round 3: RB 16-21 vs. WR 7-11
Round 4: RB 22-23 vs. WR 12-17
Round 5: RB 24-25 vs. WR 18-23
As you can see, the run on RBs slows down in the 4th and 5th, as people scramble to grab WRs. As a result, after taking 3 top 12 WRs in the first three rounds, you can still find serviceable RBs in rounds 4-6. And if a RB happens to fall to you in the 4th, then, great.
If a guy is willing to chase the run and pick question marks like Miller, DMC, etc., I'm willing to roll the dice and compete against him with top shelf WRs instead.
EDIT: Some ADP data to mull over:
In a 12 teamer...
Round 2: RB 12-15 vs. WR 2-6
Round 3: RB 16-21 vs. WR 7-11
Round 4: RB 22-23 vs. WR 12-17
Round 5: RB 24-25 vs. WR 18-23
As you can see, the run on RBs slows down in the 4th and 5th, as people scramble to grab WRs. As a result, after taking 3 top 12 WRs in the first three rounds, you can still find serviceable RBs in rounds 4-6. And if a RB happens to fall to you in the 4th, then, great.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
I would rather have a top 3 QB than a RB that is a major unknown. For example David Wilson, in a timeshare, likely to come out on 3rd down a lot, not the GL back...McFadden has a terrible injury history and wasn't even that good when he did play last year. I know your point is that the 20th RB>>>40th RB where as 3rd QB>12th QB. However, that is assuming the RB you are drafting in the drafting in the 3rd actually ends up as a top 20 RB. Maybe I am just being too risk adverse, but I just hate drafting a player in the 3rd round just because they are a RB.
pantherclub
Footballguy
If you look around the room and cannot spot the guppy.........
getting caught up in a RB run in the first and second run is the ultimate guppy play
I agree. In my most recent, and last, draft a couple days ago (Sunday night) I had the 2nd pick (12 man standard, typical lineup). I went Doug Martin, Demaryius Thomas, Drew Brees. I caught some flak for taking a QB in the early third, and I even passed up David Wilson (went two picks later) who I could have had as my RB2. And I'm high on Wilson, even...but with Drew Brees (or Manning) I KNOW what I am getting. That's worth a 3rd pick to me, and I'll wait to take RB2 a little later. I know I can get Stafford or Romo in the 6-8th round, and I did that in other leagues, but I'd rather have the top 3 known quantity money QB than RB with a sky high potential but no proven track record and a lot of unknowns.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
why would people give you #### about picking the #1 qb in the 3rd?
I'll admit, it got ugly. Giovani Bernard at RB2. But I'll take it.
Because we e-know each other and talk a lot, and they know I'm a proponent of taking a QB late. Also, and I forgot about this, there is a flex spot that allows a 3rd RB in that league. I forgot about that when I made my last post. I don't feel compelled to start 3 RB's though, the dropoff is so big I'll probably put a WR there. FWIW I ended up with Chris Ivory at RB3. Then Hillman and Ballard. As the OP of this thread says...RB's just vanished into thin air. Any RB after round 4 pretty much flat out sucked. I couldn't even get Ryan Mathews in the 4th, like I wanted.
I'll stand by Brees at 3.04, happily, though.
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Man of Zen
Footballguy
Getting "caught up" in runs is only problematic if there's a clear stratification of talent, and by being later in the run, you commit yourself to probable lower-end production, while passing up on higher-end players you might have had at other positions.
If you look around the room and cannot spot the guppy.........
getting caught up in a RB run in the first and second run is the ultimate guppy play
I'm seeing legitimate arguments describing reasons why at least 15 different RB's may well be top five talents this year. If drafters 1-11 take RB's, I might well be confident that I can take two RB's at 12 and 13 that would give me a shot at outscoring a guy who nabbed Peterson and Foster somehow.
There's no year-to-year absolute on what does or doesn't constitute amateur hour on draft day.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Similar here, I had first pick and took Peterson. My top 16 RBs were all gone by the time I was up again so I took Graham and Julio. According to projections, I ended up with the best team, it has some real injury risk to it, but the ideal lineup is solid IMO.
QB: RG3 RB1: Peterson RB2: Platoon of Vareen/DeAngelo WR1: Julio WR2: Garcon WR/TE: Graham TE: Gronk
chickensoup
Footballguy
And if your going to get "caught in a run" the only acceptable one to get caught in is RB. Past the first 2 rounds its straight up hope that certain guys get to you and perform well. If you draft late in the first round and you are afraid of getting "caught in a run" and bypass RB completely, your hope is that Miller, Wilson, Lacy fall to you AND put up acceptable numbers.Getting "caught up" in runs is only problematic if there's a clear stratification of talent, and by being later in the run, you commit yourself to probable lower-end production, while passing up on higher-end players you might have had at other positions.I'm seeing legitimate arguments describing reasons why at least 15 different RB's may well be top five talents this year. If drafters 1-11 take RB's, I might well be confident that I can take two RB's at 12 and 13 that would give me a shot at outscoring a guy who nabbed Peterson and Foster somehow.
getting caught up in a RB run in the first and second run is the ultimate guppy play
There's no year-to-year absolute on what does or doesn't constitute amateur hour on draft day.
Again projected points don't tell the whole story on RB. It's job security and health going into the year that are making the RB run at the beginning. I pray as a guy drafting in the 3 slot Saturday that folks are dumb enough to grab WR/WR 1/2 at 10-12 slot. I'll be giddy as hell. I'll just go the boring old McCoy/Bush/Fitz type of draft and leave him the "huge advantage" at WR2 and almost nothing at RB that you can realistically count on
Man of Zen
Footballguy
I think McCoy is a perfectly valid choice at #3, as you say.And if your going to get "caught in a run" the only acceptable one to get caught in is RB. Past the first 2 rounds its straight up hope that certain guys get to you and perform well. If you draft late in the first round and you are afraid of getting "caught in a run" and bypass RB completely, your hope is that Miller, Wilson, Lacy fall to you AND put up acceptable numbers.Getting "caught up" in runs is only problematic if there's a clear stratification of talent, and by being later in the run, you commit yourself to probable lower-end production, while passing up on higher-end players you might have had at other positions.I'm seeing legitimate arguments describing reasons why at least 15 different RB's may well be top five talents this year. If drafters 1-11 take RB's, I might well be confident that I can take two RB's at 12 and 13 that would give me a shot at outscoring a guy who nabbed Peterson and Foster somehow.
getting caught up in a RB run in the first and second run is the ultimate guppy play
There's no year-to-year absolute on what does or doesn't constitute amateur hour on draft day.
Again projected points don't tell the whole story on RB. It's job security and health going into the year that are making the RB run at the beginning. I pray as a guy drafting in the 3 slot Saturday that folks are dumb enough to grab WR/WR 1/2 at 10-12 slot. I'll be giddy as hell. I'll just go the boring old McCoy/Bush/Fitz type of draft and leave him the "huge advantage" at WR2 and almost nothing at RB that you can realistically count on
In my draft, he was available at 12. I doubt the guy who took him regretted getting caught up in the run. I also don't think anyone above that made a real glaringly obvious mistake.
That's fine on the one hand, but on the other hand, if a RB falls to that guy and that RB hits, the advantage is going to go the other way...And if your going to get "caught in a run" the only acceptable one to get caught in is RB. Past the first 2 rounds its straight up hope that certain guys get to you and perform well. If you draft late in the first round and you are afraid of getting "caught in a run" and bypass RB completely, your hope is that Miller, Wilson, Lacy fall to you AND put up acceptable numbers.Getting "caught up" in runs is only problematic if there's a clear stratification of talent, and by being later in the run, you commit yourself to probable lower-end production, while passing up on higher-end players you might have had at other positions.I'm seeing legitimate arguments describing reasons why at least 15 different RB's may well be top five talents this year. If drafters 1-11 take RB's, I might well be confident that I can take two RB's at 12 and 13 that would give me a shot at outscoring a guy who nabbed Peterson and Foster somehow.
getting caught up in a RB run in the first and second run is the ultimate guppy play
There's no year-to-year absolute on what does or doesn't constitute amateur hour on draft day.
Again projected points don't tell the whole story on RB. It's job security and health going into the year that are making the RB run at the beginning. I pray as a guy drafting in the 3 slot Saturday that folks are dumb enough to grab WR/WR 1/2 at 10-12 slot. I'll be giddy as hell. I'll just go the boring old McCoy/Bush/Fitz type of draft and leave him the "huge advantage" at WR2 and almost nothing at RB that you can realistically count on
I can understand not liking the mid-round RBs -- heck, I don't either, aside from someone like DRich -- but I think people are overestimating the ppg advantage of a low-end-RB1/high-end-RB2 compared to a WR1. Again, this is assuming ppr and start 2RB, 3WR.
If you draft someone like MJD and he goes off for top 5 RB #s then, obviously, you have a great chance of winning your league. However, someone like MJD could also land in RB2 territory in which case you would've been a lot better off grabbing a legit WR1 in that position (e.g., Demaryius).
In other words, I guess I'm the more risk-averse type, as I think if your 1st and/or 2nd round pick bust relative to adp it's a lot harder to overcome than if your 5th-6th round RBs don't pan out while you are pulling down solid points at your other positions each week.
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chickensoup
Footballguy
Even if he puts up RB2 numbers, with where you get MJD it's not like you're getting Amendola as your WR1.That's fine on the one hand, but on the other hand, if a RB falls to that guy and that RB hits, the advantage is going to go the other way...I can understand not liking the mid-round RBs -- heck, I don't either, aside from someone like DRich -- but I think people are overestimating the ppg advantage of a low-end-RB1/high-end-RB2 compared to a WR1. Again, this is assuming ppr and start 2RB, 3WR.And if your going to get "caught in a run" the only acceptable one to get caught in is RB. Past the first 2 rounds its straight up hope that certain guys get to you and perform well. If you draft late in the first round and you are afraid of getting "caught in a run" and bypass RB completely, your hope is that Miller, Wilson, Lacy fall to you AND put up acceptable numbers.Again projected points don't tell the whole story on RB. It's job security and health going into the year that are making the RB run at the beginning. I pray as a guy drafting in the 3 slot Saturday that folks are dumb enough to grab WR/WR 1/2 at 10-12 slot. I'll be giddy as hell. I'll just go the boring old McCoy/Bush/Fitz type of draft and leave him the "huge advantage" at WR2 and almost nothing at RB that you can realistically count onGetting "caught up" in runs is only problematic if there's a clear stratification of talent, and by being later in the run, you commit yourself to probable lower-end production, while passing up on higher-end players you might have had at other positions.I'm seeing legitimate arguments describing reasons why at least 15 different RB's may well be top five talents this year. If drafters 1-11 take RB's, I might well be confident that I can take two RB's at 12 and 13 that would give me a shot at outscoring a guy who nabbed Peterson and Foster somehow.
getting caught up in a RB run in the first and second run is the ultimate guppy play
There's no year-to-year absolute on what does or doesn't constitute amateur hour on draft day.
If you draft someone like MJD and he goes off for top 5 RB #s then, obviously, you have a great chance of winning your league. However, someone like MJD could also land in RB2 territory in which case you would've been a lot better off grabbing a legit WR1 in that position (e.g., Demaryius).
I think this is the misconception that people are having. The RB run is 2 to 2.5 rounds long depending on scoring/roster rules. You can't be thinking that if you pass up a MJD your WR1 will be garbage. It's very feasible to get a Morris/Forte(or Bush/MJD/CJ depending on preference)/White first 3 rounds from anywhere past the 6th spot. Is that really that bad? No. I'd actually say that's a great start. It's just not as sexy as Graham/Dez(Green or Marshall)/White
This isn't a VBD type of argument. I agree that from a VBD standpoint, getting the stud WR/Graham makes complete sense. It's just a risky strategy because of what is likely to be left for you at RB going into the third/fourth round.
I do a lot of small pot leagues ($20ish) to prep for my main long running league. Every one of them is different but the same.if you don't have a RB by the middle of the 3rd round, you get a starting RB core of Lacy (injury concern, pass first offense) and something like Gio or Richardson as your RB2. It's because the run is 2.5 rounds long with like 5 or 6 WR, Graham, and usually 2-3 QBs taken. I never like the WR/WR teams because their RB are just brutal to count on.
It's not VBD that's created the run, it's certainty of snaps and health that brought RB/RB back into the fold.
Rushmore
Footballguy
This happened in my draft too. I usually try to truly take bpa (within reason) and was feeling pretty good about it until i realized I was shorter on RB than I would like. By then it was too late to really fix things. I still have a strong team, but I'm thinner at rb than I usually ever am and feel uneasy about it.
Man of Zen
Footballguy
We all weigh risks differently.That's fine on the one hand, but on the other hand, if a RB falls to that guy and that RB hits, the advantage is going to go the other way...And if your going to get "caught in a run" the only acceptable one to get caught in is RB. Past the first 2 rounds its straight up hope that certain guys get to you and perform well. If you draft late in the first round and you are afraid of getting "caught in a run" and bypass RB completely, your hope is that Miller, Wilson, Lacy fall to you AND put up acceptable numbers.Getting "caught up" in runs is only problematic if there's a clear stratification of talent, and by being later in the run, you commit yourself to probable lower-end production, while passing up on higher-end players you might have had at other positions.I'm seeing legitimate arguments describing reasons why at least 15 different RB's may well be top five talents this year. If drafters 1-11 take RB's, I might well be confident that I can take two RB's at 12 and 13 that would give me a shot at outscoring a guy who nabbed Peterson and Foster somehow.
getting caught up in a RB run in the first and second run is the ultimate guppy play
There's no year-to-year absolute on what does or doesn't constitute amateur hour on draft day.
Again projected points don't tell the whole story on RB. It's job security and health going into the year that are making the RB run at the beginning. I pray as a guy drafting in the 3 slot Saturday that folks are dumb enough to grab WR/WR 1/2 at 10-12 slot. I'll be giddy as hell. I'll just go the boring old McCoy/Bush/Fitz type of draft and leave him the "huge advantage" at WR2 and almost nothing at RB that you can realistically count on
I can understand not liking the mid-round RBs -- heck, I don't either, aside from someone like DRich -- but I think people are overestimating the ppg advantage of a low-end-RB1/high-end-RB2 compared to a WR1. Again, this is assuming ppr and start 2RB, 3WR.
If you draft someone like MJD and he goes off for top 5 RB #s then, obviously, you have a great chance of winning your league. However, someone like MJD could also land in RB2 territory in which case you would've been a lot better off grabbing a legit WR1 in that position (e.g., Demaryius).
In other words, I guess I'm the more risk-averse type, as I think if your 1st and/or 2nd round pick bust relative to adp it's a lot harder to overcome than if your 5th-6th round RBs don't pan out while you are pulling down solid points at your other positions each week.
If stud WR guy nails his late round RB's, yeah, he's in good shape.
If I end up with TRichardson and Forte, or McCoy and CJ2K, and my late round receivers nail it, same difference.
It's just that I happen to have a lot more faith in the later round wideouts (and TE's, and QB's) to have a shot to produce legit starter numbers than I do for the corresponding RB's this year. While I regard the RB's in the consensus 10-15 range to have very solid shots at producing in the neighborhood of the top backs.
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grateful zed
Footballguy
grab 4 or 5 early with the intention of trading your top rb in week 3/4 to desperate owner for a steal.
You'll have better luck with VBD if you are weighting the RB position. I've put sky-high numbers in for Graham and he's never in the top 15 regardless of league format when I'm weighting the RB position with any significance. Graham is going to hurt a lot of teams this year, I think, based on his current ADP. Sure, he's gonna be phenomenal. But in most 12-team PPR leagues he isn't worth even a second round pick according to VBD weighted for RBs. There are going to be a slew of 55-70 catch tight ends this year and that saps his relative value.
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LawFitz
Footballguy
The 3rd RB flex makes all the difference in the world in this debate!!!
In such leagues, you are almost forced to go with some RB picks early. But in the start 2 RB leagues, if you don't zag during the RB run you are just setting up your league mates picking at the top of rd 1 to have better RB AND WR/QB than you. G/L with that.
In such leagues, you are almost forced to go with some RB picks early. But in the start 2 RB leagues, if you don't zag during the RB run you are just setting up your league mates picking at the top of rd 1 to have better RB AND WR/QB than you. G/L with that.
Saint
Footballguy
first, know your system. my league (td only with length bonuses), qb passing tds are 6 pts. defenses are just as critical as you lose a pt for every offensive pt against you.
i went upside down drafting knowing my system and it worked pretty well.
1.04 rodgers
2.08 bryant
3.04 houston def
4.08 fitzgerald
5.04 wilson
6.08 miller
7.04 mathews
8.08 nicks
hard to say whether or not a system dictates runs without undertsanding your league tendencies. by my pick in the 2nd, 9 qbs were off the board, 4th had 12 defenses off the board. know your drafters, and that'll help you plan for where to take certain players.
i went upside down drafting knowing my system and it worked pretty well.
1.04 rodgers
2.08 bryant
3.04 houston def
4.08 fitzgerald
5.04 wilson
6.08 miller
7.04 mathews
8.08 nicks
hard to say whether or not a system dictates runs without undertsanding your league tendencies. by my pick in the 2nd, 9 qbs were off the board, 4th had 12 defenses off the board. know your drafters, and that'll help you plan for where to take certain players.
zoonation
Footballguy
(HULK)
(Smash)
Wouldn't you just start an empty spot at D?
Saint
Footballguy
nope. that would be a forfeit.
it has actually grown on me since defenses are now valuable and it's always interesting to see where they start going as the run is unbelievable. anyway, back to the rbs. My point is your league scoring and tendencies will dictate how u draft.
i have a plan going in, but i'm always ready to change it. in the draft i listed above, i was planning rb in rd 2, and i could have had a mjd, ridley, sjackson, or forte. being td only, i felt dez will be a beast over those rbs and a better pick. i went with value and ending up with wilson/miller/mathews, i was comfortable that the drop in vale from dez to the next wrs was greater than the rb drop.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Ive done 2 drafts the last few days (10 team, non-PPR, 6 pt all TDs, standard yardage pts, start QB/2RB/3WR/TE/1Flex). I hit RB early hard, and couldnt be much happier with these teams. I can only hope to get a team as good in my $ league drafts this week.
With the 8th pick, started off McCoy, Forte, CJ2K, ended up with...
QB: Ryan, Vick
RB: McCoy, Forte, CJ2K, Bernard, Mendenhall
WR: Roddy, Wayne, Austin, Gordon, Thompkins
TE: Gronk, Cameron
With the 4th pick, started off Spiller, CJ2K, Marshall, DWilson, ended up with...
QB: RG3, Dalton
RB: Spiller, CJ2K, DWilson, Bernard, Vereen, Tate, Greene
WR: Marshall, Bowe, Gordon, Blackmon, Hopkins, Jeffery, Sanu
TE: Witten
With the 8th pick, started off McCoy, Forte, CJ2K, ended up with...
QB: Ryan, Vick
RB: McCoy, Forte, CJ2K, Bernard, Mendenhall
WR: Roddy, Wayne, Austin, Gordon, Thompkins
TE: Gronk, Cameron
With the 4th pick, started off Spiller, CJ2K, Marshall, DWilson, ended up with...
QB: RG3, Dalton
RB: Spiller, CJ2K, DWilson, Bernard, Vereen, Tate, Greene
WR: Marshall, Bowe, Gordon, Blackmon, Hopkins, Jeffery, Sanu
TE: Witten
Tony Jabroni
Footballguy
Nearly the first 15 picks were all RB's in my league. It sucked. Throw in keepers, etc and it was just a pain in the ###.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Except for last year when everyone wanted to take a stud QB early. This year, there just happens to be a surprisingly deep group 15-20 RBs that all have top 10 potential.
If you want to fix it, you don't need QB flex. Just make 1 point per 10 yards passing like it is for every other position.
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Chaka
Footballguy
You need positional scarcity more than increasing scoring to create demand like you see with RBs in most FF formats.
Whatever, not a big deal, it has just always baffled me how fantasy football loves to devalue the most important player on the team. Heck the QB is probably the most valuable player in all team sports but in fantasy they mean ####. Go figure.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
What were seeing with QBs this year is essentially just normalization although QBs are technically going a bit later than usual (in comparison to QB ADP from 2007-2012). After 2011 proved to be a statistical outlier in regards to the "elite" QBs, everyone went back to a more old school approach. Of course this is just one variable and it greatly depends on your leagues scoring system.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Agreed. I enjoy playing in superflex.
LawFitz
Footballguy
I find two formats provide the best balance among the three main positions:
1 QB /2 RB /3 WR with 6 pts per TD pass; or
2 QB /2 RB /3 WR with 4 pts per TD pass.
Both with 0.5 PPR.
I will never again play in a league with the ability to start more than 2 RB. I amazed by how many people underestimate the power of that flex position to grossly overrate the RB position. When Ahmad Bradshaw is getting picked in the same round as Tom Brady, you know there is something wrong with your format. JMHO.
1 QB /2 RB /3 WR with 6 pts per TD pass; or
2 QB /2 RB /3 WR with 4 pts per TD pass.
Both with 0.5 PPR.
I will never again play in a league with the ability to start more than 2 RB. I amazed by how many people underestimate the power of that flex position to grossly overrate the RB position. When Ahmad Bradshaw is getting picked in the same round as Tom Brady, you know there is something wrong with your format. JMHO.
All that is hindsight. This year players will also fail and others step up an prosper, players will get hurt. This RB hoarding in a passing league is exactly the result of false confidence in far too many RBs and a lack of willingness to roll the dice on other talent you csn buy far later... and in bulk. Shotgun approach to late rbs for your RB2 and 3 is not a bad idea.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Some perspective from my draft last saturday. Long time league everyone seems to know what they are doing etc
$500 entry fee and then you bid on your draft spot. For instance the #1 spot went for $360. I bid on #10 for $260. its PPR. Calvin went #1, AJ Green #6, Julio #9. I have done upside down drafting for the last 3 years and I have won it all, finished 2nd and made playoffs each year. I think my leaguemates caught on to the strategy because it well works.
heres the rest of my draft in order
Dez
D Thomas
Stafford
Colston
d Richardson
Mendenhall
Monte Ball
Ben Tate
Kemball Thompkins
Juluis thomas
Vick Ballard
Bryce Brown
Brandan Pettigew
Detroit D
Jordan Cameron
Graham Gano
$500 entry fee and then you bid on your draft spot. For instance the #1 spot went for $360. I bid on #10 for $260. its PPR. Calvin went #1, AJ Green #6, Julio #9. I have done upside down drafting for the last 3 years and I have won it all, finished 2nd and made playoffs each year. I think my leaguemates caught on to the strategy because it well works.
heres the rest of my draft in order
Dez
D Thomas
Stafford
Colston
d Richardson
Mendenhall
Monte Ball
Ben Tate
Kemball Thompkins
Juluis thomas
Vick Ballard
Bryce Brown
Brandan Pettigew
Detroit D
Jordan Cameron
Graham Gano
rangerforme
Footballguy
Is there such thing as a Guppy or Shark when everyone is just picking the next highest guy off the same cheatsheet?
Auction, that sorts out the Guppies vs. the Sharks.
Auction, that sorts out the Guppies vs. the Sharks.
chickensoup
Footballguy
Hence 1 RB in the first 2 rounds....
I'm not saying don't get Dez Bryant at 12. I'm saying pair him with Forte or Alfred Morris or something. Pairing him with AJ Green and the top 20 RB are off the table before it gets back to you and then what do you do? Specifically what do you do if the guy you take in the 3rd underproduces or gets injured?
It's position scarcity vs "value". Every team conceivably has 2 or 3 WR who are startable weekly, but the number is probably closer to 50-60 guys who are at least flex plays. On the other hand there's really only 32-36 possible RB to get fantasy play outside on injury (including a couple of committees like Gio/BJGE). Of those at RB, almost 2/3 have defined roles, are not huge injury risks, and are not injured right now. The other third are middling talents, in bad situations, or are committe backs. If you have none by about pick 30, you're picking the scraps from the bottom third and you have only hope to hinge your fantasy season on.
Again, most of the top RB production turnover is due to injury in some manner which is almost completely unpredictable. A guy gets hurt and falls out of the top 12, but then often, he returns to the top 12. That's two separate instances of "turnover" at the top of the RB ladder. It's mostly unpredictable and you can't count on it.
This year has so many RB of a known health and role and very few discounts. I just don't see how you don't get at least 1 in the 1st or 2nd round and have any confidence you will win
I agree with this, although in PPR I think you have a little more leeway. I just totally disagree with reaching up for a Ridley or SJax in the 3rd round or god forbid 2nd just to fill out a roster spot with a known commodity. A big part of this game is forgoing mediocrity to take shots at big payoffs and finding ways to adjust in FA or via trades if your gambles dont pay off. Good enough to lose with, in other words.
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Voodoo Rage
Footballguy
I think a lot of you are way too set into a decade old mentality that what defines a successful fantasy team is 2 solid running backs. They are only one part of your roster. I'm all about value. Why burn elite draft picks on backs who really only scored about 2 points a week more than guys like Shonn Greene last year? Instead land an elite receiver or TE who demonstratively puts up 5-6 points more a week than the what the competion might start. I've been very happy the last few years not following the pack and getting those points elsewhere. In the last few years, if you had a couple elite receivers and an elite QB or TE, you had a pretty dominant team even with mediocrity at RB. Sure if you can get an actual elite back, then do it, but don't be the guy grabbing the end of the run when you have Dez Bryant sitting there in the player pool. When you do that I don't think you are playing to win, you are playing to be adequate.
Again, it's all about points not a balanced roster.
Again, it's all about points not a balanced roster.
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Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Id commence to projectile vomiting if those were my RBs.
All of them besides possibly DRich are much better/valuable RBs in non-PPR as well.
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